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Portfolio Strategy Research
Macro tailwinds for Financials, but hedge funds and mutual funds disagree on the sector
Investor optimism rests on the belief that tax reform and deregulation are just around the corner. However, a delay in tax cuts until 2018
will postpone the accretive earnings impact incorporated into many current year EPS forecasts. Hawkish comments by Fed officials have
accelerated the expected pace of tightening. Since the election, Financials have rallied by 25% led by a 33% surge in Banks, outpacing the
12% rise in the S&P 500. Cyclical sectors including Financials and Energy typically outperform during periods of rising rates and inflation.
Hedge funds have a low 11% net exposure to Financials while large-cap core and growth mutual funds overweight the sector.
Conversations we are having with clients: Path of market, Fed hikes, Financials exposure
This week the S&P 500 index traded intra-day above the 2400 level for Rising bond yields and hope for reduced regulation boosted Financials
the first time. The benchmark now stands at 2382, 7% higher than at the stocks during 4Q 2016. Hedge funds reduced their net exposure to the
start of the year and up 12% since the election. Current investor optimism sector while growth mutual funds sharply increased their allocations. In
rests on the belief that tax reform and deregulation are just around the contrast with growth funds, large-cap value mutual funds slashed their
corner. Our tactical view remains that the market will peak at 2400 in 1Q but allocation to Financials to 50 bp underweight from 40 bp overweight.
fade towards a year-end level of 2300. The shift from hope to reality will
Despite opposing views on Financials, Banks stocks remain popular
occur as investors come to recognize that tax reform will be delayed and the
across hedge funds and mutual funds. Large-cap core, growth, and value
accretive benefit to corporate profits from lower tax rates will be postponed
mutual funds are all significantly overweight banks vs. their respective
until 2018 at the earliest, and that the recent stretch of strong economic data
benchmarks. Banks also account for five stocks (10%) of our Hedge Fund VIP
will accelerate the Feds path toward higher rates.
list of the most popular hedge fund long positions (ticker: GSTHHVIP). The
Hawkish comments from the Fed this week lifted the probability of a five banks include BAC, C, and JPM, which also rank as constituents in our
rate hike on March 15th at the conclusion of the next FOMC meeting basket of the 50 most popular mutual fund overweights (GSTHMFOW).
(Exhibit 1). The futures market now assigns a 92% probability of a 25 bp Other stocks loved by both hedge fund and mutual fund stock-pickers
hike in March followed by a 50% chance of a subsequent rate hike by June. include AMZN, FB, and GOOGL. See the overlap between our baskets of
Our economists Current Activity Indicator shows a 4% pace of US growth. hedge fund and mutual fund favorite and least favorite stocks in Exhibit 5.
The shift in FOMC expectations during the past week coincided with a Hedge funds and large-cap mutual funds both came into the year
20 bp jump in 10-year US Treasury yields back above 2.5% and spurred overweight Energy stocks, another sector where we see opportunity.
further outperformance of Financials stocks. During the four months Although the performance of Energy stocks relative to the broad S&P 500
since the US presidential election, 10-year yields have risen by 60 bp and typically tracks the price of crude oil, the equity sector and the commodity
Financials have rallied by 25%, outpacing S&P 500 by 13 percentage points. have recently reached their widest divergence in more than five years. Since
Bank stocks have surged by 33%, outperforming the market by 21 pp. early December, while the S&P 500 has rallied by 8% and WTI has climbed
by 2%, the S&P 500 Energy sector has declined by 3% (Exhibit 4).
History suggests that cyclical sectors including Financials and Energy
typically outperform during periods of rising rates and inflation We believe the divergence between Energy stocks and oil creates an
(Exhibit 2). Among S&P 500 industries, Banks and Diversified Financials opportunity. Tactical investors can trade convergence by buying Energy
display the highest positive correlation with both rising rates and inflation. stocks, selling the S&P 500, and selling oil. Depending on expectations for
We recommend investors overweight the Financials sector based on our oil prices and US equities in aggregate, investors may choose instead to buy
expectation that the Fed will hike three times in 2017 and 10-year Treasury Energy stocks either outright or relative to the S&P 500. Investor overweight
yields will rise to 3%. The potential for deregulation is another tailwind, as is positioning in Energy at the start of 2017 likely helped create the current
the prospect of greater business activity implied by recent economic data. divergence, as expectations for range-bound oil prices led investors to
reallocate, weighing on the performance of Energy stocks. For more, see US
Our analyses of the newest positioning data show that hedge funds and
Macroscope, March 1, 2017.
mutual funds hold opposing views on the Financials sector (Exhibit 3).
Hedge funds have 11% net exposure to Financials, which ranks as their At the stock level, we suggest investors position for a rise in dispersion
largest net sector underweight vs. the Russell 3000, at -430 bp. In contrast, by focusing on the stocks with the greatest potential to generate alpha.
Financials is the most overweight sector among large-cap core mutual funds Our recent Hedge Fund Trend Monitor, Mutual Fundamentals, and US
(17%, +250 bp vs. S&P 500) and large-cap growth funds (7%, +400 bp vs. Equity Views: The search for alpha reports discuss fund positioning
Russell 1000 Growth). Although the allocation to Financials by large-cap including the widespread tendency to own stocks unlikely to generate alpha.
value mutual funds is dramatic at 26.3%, it is actually 50 bp underweight We suggest investors focus on stocks with low mutual fund active share,
versus the Russell 1000 Value benchmark. low hedge fund concentration, and high dispersion scores.
70% 0.02
Info Tech
Industrials
60% Energy
0.00
50% Health Care Materials
Consumer
Telecom Services Discretionary
(0.02)
40%
Consumer Staples
30% (0.04)
20%
(0.06) Utilities
10% Real Estate
0% (0.08)
Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 (0.05) (0.04) (0.03) (0.02) (0.01) 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
Sensitivity () to 10-year breakeven inflation
Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 3: Mutual funds and hedge funds hold opposing views on Financials Exhibit 4: Energy stocks have performed far worse than justified by oil prices
holdings as of December 31, 2016 as of March 2, 2017
20 %
Large-cap Core Large-cap Growth Large-cap Value Hedge funds Energy stocks attractive
Avg. fund OW Avg. fund OW Avg. fund OW Net OW 16 %
Oil Convergence
weight UW weight UW weight UW weight UW Energy sector excess return
12 %
Cons. Discretionary 12 % 16 bp 20 % (50)bp 7% 288 bp 17 % 444 bp and WTI crude oil
Consumer Staples 9 (31) 7 (276) 7 (117) 6 (323)
8%
Energy 8 3 2 183 12 (133) 8 143
Financials 17 248 7 394 26 (51) 11 (429) +1 Stdev
4%
Health Care 13 (5) 16 (15) 12 194 15 253
Industrials 11 28 8 (276) 11 133 9 (149) 0%
Info Tech 21 31 35 337 13 331 23 298
Materials 3 43 2 (114) 4 92 8 449 (4)%
-1 Stdev
Real Estate 2 (136) 1 (127) 1 (319) 1 (307)
(8)%
Telecom Services 2 (87) 0 (80) 3 (118) 1 (125)
Utilities 2 (112) 0 24 3 (301) 0 (253)
(12)%
Note: Benchmark indices used for overweight/(underweight) calculations were as follows: Energy stocks expensive
S&P 500 for large-cap core, Russell 1000 Growth for large-cap growth, Russell 1000 Value for large-cap value
(16)%
Russell 3000 for hedge funds 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
PG PM PSA SPG T
Short Positions
UPS VZ WMT XOM
<GSTHVISP>
19 stocks in our
10 stocks in our
mutual fund
mutual fund overweight basket are
underweight basket
also important
are also important
hedge fund holdings
hedge fund shorts
3.50%
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Sentiment Indicator Rotation Index Volatility
100 (2.0) 44
>90 = HIGH net positions 100 Risk on; favors EQUITY flows
VIX
(1.5) 40
S&P 500 Futures Sentiment
80
36
Standard deviations
(1.0)
6-month 32
60 (0.5) trend
28
0.0
24
40
0.5
Rotation Index 20
Sentiment
1.0 (4-wk moving avg)
20 Indicator (SI) 16
12
1.5
12
<10 = LOW net positions Risk off; favors BOND flows
0 2.0 8
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-15
Jun-16
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Note: Sentiment Indicator ranks net futures positioning versus the past 12 months. Readings Note: Rotation Index plots the first principal component of weekly reallocation activity
below 10 or above 90 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns. across equity and debt mutual fund categories as a measure of retail risk appetite.
Source: Haver, Lipper, FactSet, CFTC, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
(8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Note: Crude Oil (S&P GSCI) return represents S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index total return. Spot change equals (3)% YTD.
Source: Haver, Lipper, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
100 102
106
100
98 104 101
99
102
96 100
100
98
94 99
98
92 96 98 97
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Domestic Cyclicals Global Cyclicals Domestic Defensives Global Defensives
104 104 116 112
GSSBDCYC GSSBGCYC GSSBDDEF GSSBGDEF
102 110
102
100 112 108
100 106
98
104
96 108
98
102
94
100
96
92 104
98
Autos FoodRetailing
90 94 CapitalGoods HealthCare 96
Banks Energy RealEstate ConsumerDurables
88 100 94
Financials Materials Retailing ConsumerServices
92 Professional Services
Insurance TechHardware Food,Beverage&Tobacco
86 Telecom 92
Media Semiconductors Household&PersonalProducts
Transportation Software Utilities Pharmaceuticals
84 90 96 90
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
100 102
95 100
90 98
85 96
DEFENSIVES GLOBAL
outperforming outperforming
80 94
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Performance and fundamentals of our sector baskets
Bloomberg % of
Ticker # of S&P 500 Non-US Earnings Growth Sales Growth NTM LTM Div Total Return
Basket <GSSBXXXX> Stocks Cap Beta Sales 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E P/E P/B Yield 1 Wk 1 Mo 3 Mo LTM YTD
Global Defensives GDEF 101 30 % 0.9 46% 6% 11 % 4% 5% 19.7x 5.4x 1.8 % 0.8 % 6% 10 % 10 % 8%
Domestic Cyclicals DCYC 88 18 1.2 21 10 13 6 4 15.1 1.6 1.6 0.8 6 10 38 7
Global Cyclicals GCYC 161 28 1.1 48 22 14 9 4 18.4 3.2 2.3 0.7 4 9 27 6
Domestic Defensives DDEF 150 24 0.9 13 5 9 5 5 18.9 3.5 2.1 0.7 4 8 14 6
S&P 500 500 100 % 1.0 30% 10 % 12 % 7% 5% 18.2x 3.1x 2.0 % 0.8 % 5% 9% 23 % 7%
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Underweight
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
102 95 108
100
100 90 104
96
98 85 100
92
96 80 96
94 88 92
75
92 70 84 88
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
92 85 95 85
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences 1.5 1.2 6.8 11 10 9 Global Defensives
Health Care Equipment & Services 1.4 1.2 5.5 11 20 11 Domestic Defensives
Consumer Durables & Apparel 1.4 1.4 5.7 5 (2) 7 Global Cyclicals
108
105
106
100
104
102
95
100
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Sep-15
Dec-15
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-15
Jun-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sectors: Russell 1000 Growth vs. Value Sectors: Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000
Weight (%) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return) Weight (%) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return)
Russell Sector Growth Value Growth Value (bps) Growth Value (bps) Russell Sector R1000 R2000 R1000 R2000 (bps) R1000 R2000 (bps)
Health Care 16 11 2 1 84 9 11 (123) Energy 6 3 1 (3) 392 (5) (8) 374
Industrials 12 10 1 1 68 6 5 123 Consumer Staples 8 2 1 (2) 292 7 (6) 1,298
Consumer Staples 8 7 1 0 52 5 9 (347) Financials 21 28 1 (1) 156 7 1 545
Cons Discretionary 22 6 1 0 48 8 3 467 Technology 18 15 0 (1) 118 11 6 517
Technology 26 9 0 0 19 12 8 338 Industrials 11 14 1 1 32 6 2 393
Materials 4 3 1 0 17 6 7 (169) Utilities 5 5 1 1 25 3 3 (32)
Financials 10 32 0 1 (43) 8 6 220 Cons Discretionary 14 13 1 1 (4) 7 0 690
Utilities 1 10 (0) 1 (116) (4) 3 (728) Materials 4 8 1 1 (47) 7 5 138
Energy 0 12 (1) 1 (162) (9) (4) (505) Health Care 13 13 2 3 (140) 10 12 (252)
Domestic Sales 5 Hedge Fund "VIP" List GSTHHVIP 0.5 % 3% 8% 21x 3.5x 1.0 %
Hedge Fund Very Important Shorts GSTHVISP 0.6 3 4 18 4.3 2.5
Buyback 5
High Hedge Fund Concentration GSTHHFHI (0.6) 2 1 20 3.0 0.1
Low Hedge Fund Concentration 5
Low Hedge Fund Concentration GSTHHFSL 1.3 6 5 20 3.7 3.4
High Tax 5 Mutual Fund
Hedge Fund Very Important Shorts 4 High Sharpe Ratio GSTHSHRP (0.3)% 4% 8% 20x 2.8x 0.9 %
Total Cash Return to Shareholders 4 Mutual Fund Overweight Positions GSTHMFOW 1.0 5 8 18 3.6 1.4
High Hedge Fund Concentration 1 Mutual Fund Underweight Positions GSTHMFUW 1.0 5 6 20 4.3 2.9
Overseas Earnings GSTHSEAS 0.7 6 7 18 3.4 2.6
(2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
S&P 500 0.8 % 5% 7% 18x 3.1x 2.0 %
S&P 500 Average 22 5.6 1.9
S&P 500 Median 19 3.4 1.8
For details and constituents of our baskets see Strategy Baskets: Anatomy of our US Portfolio Strategy Thematic and Sector Baskets, January 18, 2017.
80 86 96 90
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
High vs. Low High vs. Low
Operating Leverage Tax Rate BRICs Sales Western Europe Sales
104 108 106 112
GSTHOPHI/ GSTHHTAX/ GSTHBRIC GSTHWEUR
103
GSTHOPLO GSTHLTAX 104
104 110
102
102
100 108
100
101
96 98 106
100
92 96 104
99
94
88 102
98
92
97 84 100
90
96 80 88 98
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
99
88
100 96
98
98 97 84 94
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Strong vs. Weak
High Quality Balance Sheet Buybacks Dividend Growth
106 108 102 106
GSTHQUAL GSTHSBAL/ GSTHREPO GSTHDIVG
106 GSTHWBAL 101
104 104
104 100
96 95 96
92
90 94
94 94
88 93
92 86 92 92
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
100
100 102
100
98
100
98
96 96
98
96 94
92
96
92
88 94
90 94
84 92 88 92
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
High Concentration Low Concentration High Sharpe Ratio Earnings Held Overseas
125 114 116 104
GSTHHFHI GSTHHFSL GSTHSHRP GSTHSEAS
112 114 103
120
110 112
102
108 110
115 101
106 108
100
110 104 106
99
102 104
105 98
100 102
97
98 100
100
96 98 96
95 94 96 95
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
GS Top-Down EPS vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Earnings & Sales Revisions (Consensus)
EPS REVISIONS SALES REVISIONS
Operating EPS Adjusted EPS
1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month
(GS Top-Down) (Consensus Bottom-Up)
17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E
Contribution EPS growth Contribution EPS growth
2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E Energy 0.6 % 1.6 % 1.8 % (1.6)% (1.3)% (1.9)% (1.3)% (2.0)%
Financials $24 $26 6% 8% $24 $27 13 % 12 % Information Technology 0.3 0.4 (0.6) (0.6) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5
Consumer Discretionary 15 15 4 1 15 16 4 13 Industrials 0.2 0.3 (0.4) 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2
Consumer Staples 10 10 1 5 11 12 6 8 Utilities 0.0 0.3 (0.2) 0.2 NM NM NM NM
Industrials 12 12 1 (1) 13 15 6 12 Consumer Staples (0.4) (0.7) (1.2) (1.8) (0.4) (0.6) (0.9) (1.1)
Utilities 4 4 2 4 4 4 2 6 S&P 500 (0.5) (0.6) (0.8) (0.7) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) (0.4)
Information Technology 23 24 8 4 28 31 8 12 Telecom Services (0.6) (4.3) (3.5) (7.4) (0.3) (0.2) (1.1) (0.8)
Health Care 16 17 3 4 20 22 3 10 S&P 500 ex. Energy (0.6) (0.7) (0.9) (0.7) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Real Estate 2 3 5 7 3 4 2 7 Consumer Discretionary (1.0) (1.3) (1.7) (2.0) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) (0.8)
Materials (1.9) (0.5) (2.8) 0.9 (0.2) (0.1) 0.3 0.7
S&P 500 ex-Energy 112 117 6 4 126 139 7 11
Health Care (2.2) (2.3) (2.6) (3.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) (0.4)
Energy 4 5 NM 31 5 7 321 39
S&P 500 EPS $116 $122 10 % 5% $131 $147 10 % 12 %
S&P 500 NTM P/E S&P 500 Cost of Equity = ERP + 10-yr UST
30 10.0
25
P/E
NTM P/E (x)
20 Cost of
18.2 8.0 Equity
15
10
7.1%
10-yr rolling avg 6.0
5
ERP
0
1/76 1/81 1/86 1/91 1/96 1/01 1/06 1/11 1/16 1/21 4.6%
4.0
10 Year
UST
S&P 500 LTM P/B 2.0 2.5%
6
5
P/B 0.0
LTM P/B (x)
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
3 3.1
2
10-yr rolling avg
1
We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) using our DDM framework to model expected future cash flows.
0
1/76 1/81 1/86 1/91 1/96 1/01 1/06 1/11 1/16 1/21 We solve for the cost of equity that implies the market is at fair value and then deduct the 10-year US treasury.
Current aggregate valuation metrics - absolute Current relative valuation vs. 10-year average (Z-score)
EV/ EV/ Price/ FCF PEG NTM EV/ EV/ Price/ FCF PEG Median
Sales EBITDA Book Yield Ratio P/E Sales EBITDA Book Yield P/E Ratio Z-Score
S&P 500 2.2x 11.7x 3.1x 4.1 % 1.5x 18.2x S&P 500 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.7
Telecommunication Services 2.4 7.1 2.9 5.1 2.5 14.0 Real Estate NM NM 0.1 NM (0.8) (0.9) (0.8)
Financials NM NM 1.4 NM 1.6 14.8 Utilities NM (1.4) (0.7) (0.1) (0.7) (0.8) (0.7)
Health Care 2.0 12.1 3.9 5.4 1.5 16.4 Telecommunication Services (1.1) (0.7) 0.2 1.5 (1.1) (0.5) (0.6)
Utilities NM 9.8 2.0 (1.2) 2.7 18.0 Health Care (1.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.0) (0.9) (0.8) (0.6)
Information Technology 3.8 12.4 4.8 5.5 1.4 18.2 Consumer Discretionary (0.3) (1.4) 0.8 0.4 (0.5) (0.4) (0.4)
Real Estate NM NM 3.0 NM 2.2 18.2 Financials NM NM (0.2) NM (0.3) 0.4 (0.2)
Materials 2.4 12.0 4.1 3.7 1.8 18.8 Information Technology 1.0 (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 1.1 (0.1)
Industrials 2.1 11.7 4.6 3.6 2.0 18.8 Materials 1.4 (0.1) 1.0 (0.3) (0.4) 0.1 (0.0)
Consumer Discretionary 1.9 10.6 5.0 3.6 1.2 19.7 Consumer Staples (0.6) (0.4) 1.2 (1.1) 0.9 1.4 0.2
Consumer Staples 1.7 13.2 5.5 4.5 2.5 20.9 Energy 2.4 0.9 (1.2) (0.0) 0.7 0.2 0.5
Energy 2.4 15.6 2.0 0.5 1.3 31.6 Industrials (1.6) (0.9) 2.6 1.6 (0.1) 1.9 0.8
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, FirstCall, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
0.6x 0.7x
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1.2x
1.0x 1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
0.8x 0.8x
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Compustat, FactSet, I/B/E/S, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Valuation: Factors
100
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
High Momentum 17.5x 0.3 0.5 LESS
Low Margins 17.4 0.8 0.8 EXPENSIVE
Low Returns
Weak Balance Sheet
18.1
16.7
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
Growth vs. Value
Low Valuation 13.0 1.0 1.4 120
High Volatility 17.2 1.0 1.0 Growth Factor
115
Low Dividend Yield 20.2 1.4 1.4 <GSMEFGRO>
High Dividend Yield 16.8 1.4 1.5 (high vs. low)
110
Low Growth 16.2 1.5 1.4
High Growth 20.8 1.5 1.3 105
Small Size 18.1 1.5 1.8
100
High Valuation 25.5 1.6 1.0
Low Momentum 17.7 1.9 1.8 95
Low Volatility 20.2 1.9 2.0
High Returns 20.8 2.1 1.9 90
Value Factor
Strong Balance Sheet 23.2 2.1 1.4
85
<GSMEFVAL>
Large Size 19.2 2.2 1.1 MORE (low vs. high)
High Margins 21.6 2.3 1.7 EXPENSIVE
80
Dec-14
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Source: Compustat, FactSet, I/B/E/S, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Net
Total 44%
flows
$ Billions
3
20
0
15
(3)
10
(6) Mutual
funds 5
(9)
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Sep-15
Dec-15
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
0
2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 14
YTD total return (%)
Mar-16
Mar-17
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Gov't Treasury 34 0.1 0.5 75 0.2 3.3
Money Market 2,552 (0.8) (43.9) NA NA NA
Source: FactSet, Lipper, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
0.7
30-year average: 29 pp
29pp
0.6
27pp
0.5
25pp
0.4
23pp
0.33
0.3
21pp 21pp
0.2 19pp
0.15
0.1 17pp
Average stock correlation
0.0 15pp
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Goldman Sachs Breadth Index (GSBI) Return Dispersion
100 +/- 1 Standard Deviation
30-yr avg = 35
90 = 28 GS Breadth Index 1-Month Returns 3-Month Returns
Goldman Sachs Breadth Index
Consumer Staples 10 12 31 15 21 7
2 2 Materials 14 15 48 16 26 4
R = SPX return
w = individual constituent weights Financials 6 13 3 12 23 3
2 2 r = individual constituent returns
Information Technology 10 20 2 18 36 2
Economics
4.0 % Economics
0.8 250
1.0 %
1.6
0.0 % 225
1.4 4-Week Moving
Core PCE Average
(1.0)%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.2 200
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
2016 2017 2018
3.5
6.0 1.0
US-MAP Surprise Index
101.4
3.0
5.0 0.5
China CAI
101.0
US CAI
2.5
4.0 0.0
2.0
100.6
3.0 (0.5)
1.5
100.2
2.0 (1.0)
1.0
US CAI 99.8
0.5 1.0 (1.5)
Negative
0.0 0.0 Data Surprises Looser
(2.0) 99.4
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) measures the growth signal in major high-frequency activity indicators for the US economy, expressed in GDP-equivalent units.
Brent
$1.20 EUR/USD 125 125 $70 crude
GS
forecast
120 120 ($/bbl) $58
$1.15 $60
118
115
$1.10 114 $50 Futures
$1.08
110 market
$1.05 $40
$56
$1.04
105
$1.05
$1.00
$1.00 100 $30
USD/JPY
$0.95 95 $20
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Investment Grade (IG) spread High-Yield (HY) spread Global Equity Market performance
Price Return (%) US Dollar Local
210 bp 1000 bp
Market 1-Wk 1-Mo 3-Mo YTD Currency
190 bp
Investment Grade High-yield
900 bp Brazil (Bovespa) (4)% 2% 21 % 14 % 9%
(IG) spread (HY) spread China (MSCI China) (2) 4 7 10 11
170 bp USD 800 bp
USD
Korea (KOSPI) (1) 2 10 10 4
150 bp Mexico (Bolsa) (1) 4 10 7 4
700 bp
130 bp Australia (ASX 200) (2) 1 8 7 2
600 bp U.S. (S&P 500) 1 4 9 6 6
110 bp 111 bp Japan (TOPIX) (1) 2 5 5 3
500 bp
90 bp Germany (Dax) 0 1 13 5 5
89 bp 430 bp Europe (DJ Stoxx 600) 0 1 9 4 4
70 bp 400 bp
Spain (IBEX 35) 2 1 11 4 4
355 bp
50 bp 300 bp UK (FTSE 100) (1) 1 6 3 3
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Average (1)% 2% 10 % 6% 5%
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Disclosure Appendix
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