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Author(s): Douglas S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino,
J. Edward Taylor
Source: Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Sep., 1993), pp. 431-466
Published by: Population Council
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Theoriesof International
Migration:A Review
and Appraisal
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY
JOAQUIN ARANGO
GRAEME HUGO
ALI KOUAOUCI
ADELA PELLEGRINO
J. EDWARD TAYLOR
underlying forces.
Yetthetheoretical baseforunderstanding theseforcesremains
weak.Therecent boominimmigration hasthereforetakencitizens, and
officials,
demographers by surprise,and when it comes to international migration,
popularthinking remainsmiredin nineteenth-century concepts,models,and
assumptions.
Atpresent, thereis no single,coherent theoryofinternational migration,
onlya fragmented setoftheoriesthathave developedlargelyin isolationfrom
one another,sometimes butnotalwayssegmented bydisciplinary boundaries.
Currentpatternsand trendsin immigration, however,suggestthat a full
understanding of contemporary migratory processeswill not be achievedby
relying on thetoolsofone discipline alone,or byfocusing on a singlelevelof
analysis.Rather,theircomplex,multifaceted naturerequiresa sophisticated
theory thatincorporates a variety levels,and assumptions.
ofperspectives,
Thepurposeofthisarticle is toexplicateandintegratetheleadingcontem-
porarytheories ofinternational migration.We beginbyexamining modelsthat
describe theinitiationofinternationalmovement andthenconsider theoriesthat
accountforwhytransnational populationflowspersistacrossspaceand time.
Ratherthanfavoring one theoryoveranothera priori, we seekto understand
each model on its own termsin orderto illuminatekey assumptionsand
hypotheses.Only aftereach theoryhas been consideredseparatelydo we
compareand contrast the differentconceptualframeworks to revealareas of
logicalinconsistency and substantivedisagreement.In undertaking thisexercise,
we seektoprovidea soundbasisforevaluating themodelsempirically, andtolay
the groundwork forconstructing an accurateand comprehensive theoryof
internationalmigration forthetwenty-firstcentury.
Giventhefactthattheories conceptualizecausalprocessesatsuchdifferent
levelsof analysis-theindividual,thehousehold,thenational,and theinter-
national-theycannotbe assumed,a priori, tobe inherentlyincompatible.It is
quite possible,forexample,thatindividualsact to maximizeincomewhile
familiesminirnize risk,and thatthe contextwithinwhichbothdecisionsare
madeis shapedby structural forcesoperatingat thenationaland international
levels.Nonetheless, the variousmodels reflectdifferentresearchobjectives,
focuses,interests,
andwaysofdecomposing an enormously complexsubjectinto
analyticallymanageableparts;and a firmbasis forjudgingtheirconsistency
requiresthattheinnerlogic,propositions,assumptions,and hypotheses ofeach
theory be clearlyspecified
and well-understood.
Neoclassicaleconomics:Macrotheory
1 Theinternational
migrationofworkers is causedbydifferencesinwage
ratesbetweencountries.
2 The eliminationofwage differentials
willend themovement oflabor,
and migrationwillnotoccurin theabsenceofsuchdifferentials.
3 International
flowsofhumancapital-thatis,highlyskilledworkers-
respondto differences
in therateof returnto humancapital,whichmaybe
different
fromtheoverallwagerate,yieldinga distinctpattern
ofmigration that
maybe oppositethatofunskilledworkers.
4 Labor marketsare the primarymechanismsby whichinternational
flowsoflaborareinduced;otherkindsofmarkets do nothaveimportant effects
on international
migration.
5 The way forgovernments to controlmigration flowsis to regulateor
influencelabormarketsin sendingand/orreceiving countries.
Neoclassicaleconomics:Microtheory
Thenew economicsofmigration
Cropinsurance
marketsWheneverfarmn householdsputtimeand money
intosowinga crop,theyarebettingthattheinvestmentwillpayoffat a future
datein theformofa productthatcanbe soldforcashtopurchasedesiredgoods
and services,
or whichcan be consumeddirectlyforsubsistence.
Betweenthe
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY ET AL. 437
Futures
marketsWhenever a householdsowsa cashcrop,itassumesthat
thecrop,whenharvested, canbe soldfora pricesufficient
tosustainthefamily
or
In makingthisbet,however,thereis a riskthattheprice
improveitswell-being.
forthecropmaydropbelowexpectedlevels,leavingthefamily withinsufficient
income.In developedcountries, priceriskis managedthrough futuresmarkets
thatallow farmersto sell all or partof theircrop forfuturedeliveryat a
guaranteedprice.Investorsassumetheriskoflossshouldpricesfallbelowthe
guaranteedprice,andtheyreapthegainshouldpricesriseabovethislevel.Most
developingcountrieslack futuresmarkets,and when theyexist,poor farm
householdsgenerallylack access to them.Migrationoffers a mechanismby
whichfarmfamilies can self-insureagainstincomerisksarisingfromcropprice
fluctuations.
Dual labormarkettheory
Thisbuilt-in
workers). demandforimmigrant laborstemsfromfourfundamen-
talcharacteristics
ofadvancedindustrial
societiesand theireconomies.
negativequalitiesthatpeopleinindustrialized countriesattachtolow-wagejobs,
forexample,may open up employment opportunities to foreignworkers,
thereby raisingtheirexpectedearnings, increasing to overcomerisk
theirability
andcreditconstraints, and enablinghouseholdstoachieverelative incomegains
by sendingfamilymembersabroad.Recruitment by employers helpsto over-
come informational and otherconstraints on international movement,en-
hancingmigration's value as a strategy forfamilyincomegeneration or risk
diversification.
Although notin inherentconflictwithneoclassicaleconomics, duallabor
markettheorydoes carryimplications and corollariesthatare quitedifferent
fromthoseemanating frommicro-level decisionmodels:
1 Internationallabormigration islargelydemand-based andisinitiated by
recruitment on thepartofemployers in developedsocieties, orbygovernments
actingon theirbehalf.
2 Sincethedemandforimmigrant workersgrowsout ofthe structural
needsoftheeconomyandisexpressed through recruitment practicesrather than
wage offers, international wage differentials are neithera necessarynor a
condition
sufficient forlabormigration to occur.Indeed,employers haveincen-
tivesto recruitworkerswhileholdingwagesconstant.
3 Low-levelwagesininmmigrant-receiving do notriseinresponse
societies
to a decreasein thesupplyofimmigrant workers; theyarehelddownbysocial
andinstitutional mechanisms and arenotfreeto respondtoshifts in supplyand
demand.
4 Low-levelwagesmayfall,however,as a resultof an increasein the
supplyofimmigrant workers, sincethesocialand institutional checksthatkeep
low-levelwagesfromrisingdo notprevent themfromfalling.
5 Governments areunlikely toinfluence internationalmigration through
policiesthatproducesmallchangesin wagesor employment rates;immigrants
filla demandforlaborthatis structurally builtintomodern,post-industrial
economies,and influencing thisdemandrequiresmajorchangesin economic
organization.
Worldsystems
theory
Networktheory
tiesthatconnectmigrants,
Migrantnetworksare setsof interpersonal former
migrants,and nonmigrants in originand destination areas throughties of
kinship, and sharedcommunity
friendship, origin.Theyincreasethelikelihood
ofinternational
movement becausetheylowerthecostsand risksofmovement
and increasethe expectednet returnsto migration. Networkconnections
a formofsocialcapitalthatpeoplecan drawupon to gainaccessto
constitute
foreign
employment. Oncethenumberofmigrants reachesa critical
threshold,
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY ET AL. 449
Institutional
theory
Cumulative
causation
Theorganization
ofagrarianproductionWhenmigrant householdsdo farm
thelandtheyown,moreover, theyaremorelikelythannonmigrant families
to
use capital-intensive
methods(machinery, herbicides,irrigation, and
fertilizers,
improvedseeds)sincetheyhave accessto capitalto financetheseinputs.Thus
migrant householdsneedlesslaborperunitofoutputthannonmigrant house-
holds,thereby displacing
localworkers fromtraditional tasksand againincreas-
ingthepressures foroutmovement (Masseyet al., 1987). Themoremigration,
thegreater thecapitalization
ofagricultureand thegreater thedisplacementof
agrarianlabor,leadingto stillgreater
migration.
Migration
systems
theory
Evaluation of theories
Becausetheories proposedtoexplaintheorigins andpersistence ofinternational
migration positcausal mechanismsat manylevelsofaggregation, thevarious
explanationsare not necessarilycontradictory unless one adopts the rigid
positionthatcausesmustoperateat one leveland one levelonly.We findno
a priorigroundsforsuchan assertion.
As statedearlier,
itis entirely
possiblethat
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY ET AL. 455
Conclusion
Theoriesdevelopedto understandcontemporary processesof international
migration positcausal mechanisms thatoperateat widelydivergent levelsof
analysis.Although thepropositions, assumptions, and hypotheses derivedfrom
each perspective are notinherently contradictory,theynonetheless carryvery
differentimplications forpolicyfornulation.Dependingon whichmodel is
supported and underwhatcircumstances, mightrecommend
a socialscientist
thatpolicymakers attempttoregulate migration
international bychanging wages
and employment conditionsin destination countries;by promoting economic
development in origincountries; byestablishingprograms ofsocialinsurance in
sendingsocieties;byreducing incomeinequality in placesoforigin;byimprov-
ingfutures orcapitalmarkets in developing regions;orbysomecombination of
theseactions.Or one mightadvisethatall oftheseprograms arefruitless
given
thestructural imperatives forinternational movementgrowingout ofmarket
economicrelations.
Whateverthe case, giventhe size and scale ofcontemporary migration
flows,and giventhepotential formisunderstanding and conflict
inherentin the
emergence ofdiverse,multi-ethnic aroundtheworld,political
societies decisions
aboutinternational rnigrationwillbe amongthemostimportant madeoverthe
nexttwodecades.Likewise, sorting outtherelative empirical
support foreachof
thetheoretical schemesand integrating themin lightofthatevaluationwillbe
amongthemostimportant taskscarriedoutbysocialscientists in ensuingyears.
We hopethatbyexplicating theleadingtheories ofinternationalmigrationand
byclarifying theirunderlying assumptions and keypropositions, we have laid
thegroundwork forthatnecessary empiricalwork.
Note
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