Professional Documents
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InternalandExternalBalance
MichaelPettis
ChinaFinancialMarkets June09,2015 China Financial Markets
Summary:Adeepgroundingineconomicandfinancialhistoryisimportantformoderneconomicanalysis.
IwasrecentlyaskedbyanAustralianeconomicsjournaltowriteareviewofabookIhadalreadyread, e
Leaderless Economy,byPeterTeminandDavidVines(publishedin2013).Becausethebookisagreatplace
fromwhichtostartadiscussiononthelinkswithintheglobaleconomy,Idecidedtobasethisessayonthe
book.IhadalreadyreadPeterTeminsLessons om the Great Depression(1991), e Roman Market Economy
(2012),andPrometheus Unshackled(2013),andIknowhisworkfairlywell.
ThereissubstantialoverlapbetweenthewayTeminandVinesviewtheglobaleconomyandthewayIdo.I
amaregularreaderofDianeCoylesblog, e Enlightened Economist,inwhichshereviewsbooks,usuallyon
economicsrelatedtopicsbutalsoonanythingelsethatmightcatchherattention.Besideshavingsaidvery
nicethingsaboutmybook, e Great Rebalancing,andincludingitinhershortlistoftopbooksfor2013(Iam
braggingalittle)shehasalsoreviewed e Leaderless Economy,andhasnotedthesimilaritiesinthewayboth
booksapproachthebalanceofpayments.
Sheisright.Bothbooksanalyzetheglobaleconomyinprettymuchthesameway,asaneconomicsystemin
whichanycountrysdomesticeconomyisinextricablylinkedtoothereconomiesthroughthebalanceof
paymentsmechanisms.Theabilitytoplaceeventswithintheirglobalcontextisconsequentlycrucially
importantinunderstandinganycountryseconomicperformance,butactuallydoingsotendsmoretobethe
exceptionthantherule.
Totakeoneexample,Irememberintheearly1990sIreadabookaboutthePanicof1873,inwhichduring
SeptemberandOctoberofthatyeargoldreservesinNewYorkplummeted,banksfolded,andthestock
marketcrashed,withtheNewYorkStockExchangeactuallyclosing,onSeptember20,fortendays.Itwasin
manywaysanexcellentbookabouttheeventsleadinguptothecrisisandthevariousfactorsthatcaused
it,butexceptforabriefmentionoftheimpactofthecrisisontheBritishbankingsystem,youcouldhave
easilyassumed,asIdidthen,thatthe1873crisiswaspurelyanAmericanaffair,andthateventsintherestof
theworldbarelymattered.
ThePanicof1873,inotherwords,wasclearlynotonly,overevenmostly,anAmericanaffair.Itwasglobal,
anditscausescouldnothavebeenlimitedtoAmericancauses,asthebookseemedtoimply.Onthe
contrary,Iwouldarguethatitisimpossiblefullytounderstandthecrisis,whetherthefocusisontheevolution
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ofthecrisisintheUS,theUK,continentalEurope,orLatinAmerica,withoutunderstandingthefullglobal
context.
Thismightseemaprofoundlycounterintuitivestatement,butinfactyouonlyneedtounderstandtwoorthree
accountingidentitiestobeabletoworklogicallythroughtheexplanation.Ishowedwhyonecountryssavings
rateisaslikelytobedeterminedbydomesticdistortionsasitisbydistortionsabroadinablogentryon
whetherasavingsglutmustcauseglobalsavingstorise.Inanotherblogentry,Iexplainedwhyalowsavings
rateincountrieslikeSpainwasanecessaryoutcomeofpoliciesinGermanythateffectivelyrestrictedwage
growth.AndfinallyIshowedhowbecauseoftheroleofthedollarinreserveaccumulationand,more
generally,theunrestrictedabilityofforeignerstobuyUSassetstheUSsavingsrateisdeterminedlargely
asaresidualneededtobalancenetcapitalflows,inablogentryonthesocalledexorbitantprivilege,andin
afollowupblogentry.
Thesetwowaysofseeingcountrieswithintheirglobalcontextsarebasicallyidentical.Anycountryscapital
accountofcourseissimplythegapbetweenitsdomesticsavingsanditsdomesticinvestment,andbecause
thecapitalaccountmustbalancethecurrentaccount(thetwoalwaysaddtozero),tosaythatthegap
betweensavingsandinvestmentinanycountrymustbeequaltoanoppositegapbetweensavingsand
investmentabroadissimplytorestatethefarmoreintuitivelyfamiliarclaimthateverycurrentaccountsurplus
intheworldmustbematchedbyacurrentaccountdeficit.Untilwebegintradingwithextraterrestrialsthe
totalmustadduptozero.
Thisshouldallbeobvious,butifanimbalanceinonecountrymustbematchedbyanoppositeandequal
imbalanceabroad,thereareonlytwopossibleexplanations.Eithertheimbalancesineverycountryareset
endogenously,and,bysomemiracle,ateverypointintime,theybalanceoutperfectly,oranimbalancein
onecountrycanforceimbalancesontoothercountries.Thefirstexplanationisobviouslyabsurd,sothegap
betweentheamountacountrysavesandtheamountitinvestsisaslikelytobedeterminedbyexternal
conditionsasbyinternal.Thisiswhyitispossibletoarguethatacountryssavingsrate(oritsunemployment
rate,oritsinvestmentrate,etc.)isdeterminedbypoliciesabroadasmuchasbypoliciesathome.Thisis
whatitmeanstoliveinaglobalizedworld.
Mostanalyststendautomaticallytolookatthecurrentaccountasthebalancingmechanism,butIthinkthisis
perhapswhyitissoofteneasytogetconfusedaboutthebalancingprocess.Byexplainingtheadjustment
processintermsofthecapitalaccount,asIdo,Ithinkitbecomesmucheasiertounderstandhowthe
directionofnetcapitalflowsdeterminesthebalancingmechanism.Italsohelpsanalystsavoidfallingintothe
trapoflookingatbilateraltradebalancesasmeaningfulwheninfact,andverycounterintuitively,theyare
almosttotallyuselesswhenitcomestounderstandinghowdistortionsinonecountrymightcausedistortions
elsewhere.Forexample,lastyearStephenRoach,oneofthemostknowledgeablecommentatorsonthe
Chineseeconomy,fellintothesameconfusionwhenhewrotethefollowing:
e US trade de cit is a multilateral imbalance with many countries 102 in all not a bilateral problem with China. It
arises not om the alleged manipulation of the renminbi, but om the simple fact that America does not save. Lacking in
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domestic savings and wanting to grow, the US must import surplus savings om abroad, and run massive current-account
de cits to attract the foreign capital. And that leads to Americas multilateral trade imbalance
IfChinarunsacapitalaccountdeficitandtheUSacapitalaccountsurplus,andtheseareroughlyequalto
netpurchasesbythePBoCandotherChinesegovernmententitiesofUSgovernmentbondsandUSassets,
Chinawillrunacurrentaccountsurplusexactlyequaltoitscapitalaccountdeficit.TheUSwillrunacurrent
accountdeficitexactlyequaltoitscapitalaccountsurplus.
Thismayshowupintheformofcorrespondingbilateraltradesurplusesanddeficitsbetweenthetwo
countries,butitisnotnecessary,andinfactextremelyunlikely,thatitwould.Whilewecannotsayjustfrom
lookingatthenumberswhetherlowUSsavingsrelativetoinvestmentforcedtheChineseintosavingmore
thantheyinvest,orwhetherhighChinesesavingsrelativetoinvestmentforcedtheAmericansintosaving
lessthantheyinvest,wecansaythatthesavingsrateinoneofthecountrieswasdeterminedinlargepartby
distortionsintheother.
ThemainpointisthatifyouwanttounderstandthecausalrelationshipbetweenChinesesurplusesandUS
deficits,orbetweenGermansurplusesbefore2009andperipheralEuropeandeficits,youhavetolookatthe
directionofnetcapitalflows,andnotatbilateraltrade.Iwillreturntothis,buttogetbackto e Leaderless
Economy,thisbookisunderpinnedbythesamedeepfamiliaritywithfinancialhistorythatPeterTeminbringsto
allhiswork,andperhapsthisiswhythebookshouldleaveeveryoneterriblyfrustratedontwocounts.First,
theauthorsshowthatwhilethe200708globalcrisisanditsaftermathwereunquestionablylargeand
complexaffairs,therewasnothingaboutthecrisisthatwasunprecedentedwehaveexperiencedsimilar
eventsbeforeandweunderstandfarmoreaboutwhatmightormightnothaveworkedthansubsequent
policymakingmightsuggest.
Theauthorsshowforexamplethatanyonewhohadareasonableunderstandingofthecurrentandcapital
accountpressuresofthe1920swhoseinconsistenciesdoomedGermanyshouldhavebeenableto
understandwhydownwardpressureonGermanwagegrowth,intheseveralyearsbeforetheglobalcrisis
wassetoffin2007bytheUSsubprimecrisis,wouldultimatelyforcehugeinternalimbalancesontoEurope
duringthattime.Moreimportantly,thisunderstandingshouldhavebeenenoughtoconvinceEuropean
policymakersthatunlessGermanyrespondedtothecrisisbyreflatingdomesticdemandsufficientlyto
generatelargecurrentaccountdeficits,itwouldbeallbutimpossibletopreventadecadeofanemicgrowth
andextraordinarilyhighunemploymentinperipheralEurope.
ItsnotthatGermanyinthe1920swasanythinglikeGermanyinthe2000s,oreventhatGermanysufferedin
the1920sfromthekindsofpressuresitforcedontoperipheralEuropeinthe2000s(althoughthisiscloserto
thetruth).TheproblemwasthatGermanyinthe1920swasrequiredtoexportlargeamountsofcapital,
becauseofextremelyhighreparationsdemands,whileitsabilitytoruncurrentaccountsurpluseswas
constrainedbyEuropeanpostwarpolicies.
Nocountrycanrunacapitalaccountdeficitunlessitrunsacurrentaccountsurplus,andtheseenormous
countervailingpressuresforcedGermany,amongotherthings,intoanunsustainableborrowingpath.
Similarlysince200809peripheralEuropehasbeenunderpressuretoruncapitalaccountdeficits(itmust
repaysubstantialborrowingsandfundflightcapital,butithastroubleborrowingwithoutimplicitECB
guarantees).Itsabilitytoruncountervailingcurrentaccountsurpluses,however,isconstrainedwithinEurope
byBerlinsrefusaltoallowareflationofdomesticdemandanditisconstrainedoutsideEuropebyGermanys
enormouscurrentaccountsurplus,whichpreventsacurrencyadjustment.ThisforcesperipheralEuropeinto
bothrisingdebtandhighunemployment,anditisonlybecauseEuropeasawholehasforcedtheproblemof
weakGermandemandontotherestoftheworldthatconditionsinEuropearenotevenworse.
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Butwouldanationofproductiveandhardworkingpeople,letscallthemants,normallyruntradesurpluses?
Theconsensusseemstobethatitwould.Runningatradesurplusmeansthatacountrysellsmoreto
foreignersthanitbuysfromthem,andthereseemstobeanimplicitbeliefthatexportsarewhatahard
workingcountryproduces,andimportsaretheequivalentofitsconsumption,sothatatradesurplusmeans
thatthecountryearnsmorethanitspends,andthelargerthesurplus,themorelikelytheantsinthatcountry
areespeciallyproductive,thrifty,morallyupright,andperhapsfondofsensibleclothing.
Countriesthatrunlargeandpersistenttradedeficits,ontheotherhand,buymorefromforeignersthanthey
sell,andbecausethisseemstosuggesttheyarelivingbeyondtheirmeans,weusuallythinkofthesepeople,
letscallthemgrasshoppers,aslackingdisciplineandprudence.Grasshoppersexciteourscorn,evenifwe
sometimesenvytheircarefreewaysandtheirbohemianmorals.
Ifhouseholdsthatarecarefultospendlessthantheyearn,makingsuretosavepartoftheirearnings,are
seenasadmirablythrifty,whilehouseholdsthataretooquicktopullouttheircreditcardstobuythingsthey
cannotaffordareseenasfoolish,andwillintheendimplicitlyrequirethattheirprudentneighborsbailthem
out,thesame,weassume,shouldbetrueofcountries.Itisunfairthatantshavetobailoutgrasshoppers,
andsonaturallywetendtoabhorpoliciesaimedatfavoringgrasshoppersoverants,andbyextensionwe
alsoabhorpoliciesthatseemtofavortradedeficitsovertradesurpluses.
Butcountriesarenotatalllikehouseholdsand,moreimportantly,acountrysearningsarenotequaltoits
exports.Acountryearnsthetotalamountofgoodsandservicesthatitshouseholdsproduce,ofwhich
exportsareonlyapartandusuallyasmallpartexceptintradingentrepotsandinmercantilistcountries.
Therichestandmostproductivecountriesarenottheonesthatexportthemost.Theyaretheonesthat
producethegreatestamountofgoodsandservices,andweusually,althoughnotalwaysaccurately,
measurethisnumberasgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).
Acountryofhardworking,productiveants,inotherwords,willnotberewardedwithahightradesurplus,but
ratherwithahighGDP,whichshouldtranslateintoahigherqualityoflife.Theymightexportagreatdeal,but
thereasontheyexportissothattheyexchangetheirexportsforforeigngoodsthateithertheycannotmake
athomeorthattakemoretimeandmoneytoproduceathomethantoimportfromabroad.Thisshouldbe
obviouswhenweconsiderthatwhileitispossibleforeveryhouseholdtoworkharder,producemore,andso
consumeandsavemore,itisimpossibleforeverycountrytoworkharder,exportmore,andimportless.
Acountryofantscouldruneithertradesurplusesortradedeficits,dependingonconditionsthathavenothing
todowithhowhardworkingitis,butifitdidrunsurplusesformanyyears,itscurrencywouldeventuallyrise,
allowingantstoexchangetheirproductsforevenmoreforeignproductsthanbefore.Thiswouldcausethe
tradesurplustodisappearastheantsconsumedalargeramountofforeigngoodsthattheycouldacquirefor
lessworkthanbefore.
Soifantsarenotrewardedwithtradesurpluses,whatexplainsthefactthatsomecountriesrunpersistent
tradesurplusesyearafteryearwhileothercountriesrunpersistentdeficits?Thereasons,itturnsout,hasto
dowiththerelationshipbetweensavingsandinvestment.Countriesthatsavemorethantheyinvestmust
exporttheseexcesssavingstoothercountries,throughthecapitalaccount,becausethesavingscannotbe
investedathome.
Butsomethingelsemusthappen.Theantsmusteitherworktoproducegoodsandservicestobeconsumed,
ortheymustbuildroads,factories,airports,andotherkindsofinvestmentthatarefundedbytheirsavings
i.e.theshareoftheirproductionthatisnotconsumed.Thisstatementisusuallycharacterizedas:
Consumption+savings=Consumption+investment
Iftheantssavemorethantheyinvest,thenbysimplearithmeticthetotalamountofgoodsandservicesthey
produceastheyearntheirincomesmustbegreaterthanthetotalamountofgoodsandservicesthey
produceinordertoconsumeortoinvest.Putdifferently,thetotalsupplyofgoodsandservicestheyproduce
mustbegreaterthantheirtotaldemandforgoodsandservices,andsotheymustexporttheexcessby
runningatradesurplus.
Acountrystradesurplus(moreaccuratelyitscurrentaccountsurplus,whichincludesthingslikeroyalty
payments,tourism,returnsoninvestmentabroad,andotherthings,butwewillpretendtheyarethesame)is
exactlyequaltoitstotalsavingsminusitstotalinvestment,whichisequaltotheamountofsavingsitexports.
Thisiswhywerefertothebalanceofpayments.Thetotalmoneythatantsreceivefromtheirtrade(current
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account)surplusisperfectlybalancedbythecapitalaccountdeficit,whichissimplytheamountofsavings
theysendabroad.
Thefirstreasonisagoodoneinthatitresultsinhighergrowthandabetteroutcomefortheworldoverall.
Thesecondtworeasons,whicharereallyvariationsofthesamereason,resultinlowergrowthfortheworld
overall.
Inthefirstcase,thereisahugeinvestmentopportunityabroad,perhapsbecauseagroupofforeignants
haveidentifiedagreatopportunitytoincreaseproductivity,andthisopportunitypersistsyearafteryear.The
returnsonthatinvestmentaresomuchhigherthantheyareathomethatantsathomearewillingtosave
morethantheynaturallywouldtoinvestathome.
Becausetheysavemorethantheyinvest,theyexporttheexcesssavingsabroad,whereitearnsanoutsized
return.Totalgrowthinproductionfortheworld,consequently,ishigher,andifthatincreaseinproductionis
sharedbetweentheantsathomeandforeignants,everyoneisbetteroff.Noticehoweverthattheforeign
antswillbeimportingsavingsbecausetheirinvestmentneedsexceedtheirsavings,andsoinspiteoftheir
hardworkandrapidlyrisingproductivity,theywillruntradedeficitsformanyyears.Inthe19thCentury
EnglandandtheUnitedStatesplayedthesetworoles,withexcessEnglishsavingspouringintotheUnited
Statestofundgrowthinhistorysmostsuccessfulemergingmarket,andwhiletheBritishranpersistenttrade
surpluses,andtheUSranpersistenttradedeficits,bothcountriesgotricher.
Thesecondreasonacountrymightsavemorethanitinvestsisbecauseofhighlevelsofincomeinequality.
Richpeopleusuallysavemoreoftheirincomethanordinarypeople,sothatthemoretheykeepofthetotal
amountofgoodsandservicesproducedbyhardworkingants,thehigherthatcountryssavingsrateandthe
loweritsconsumptionrate.Becauselowerconsumptiondiscouragesbusinessesfrombuildingnewfactories
orotherwiseexpandingproduction,highersavingsoftencomewithlowerinvestment,andsocountrieswith
highlyunequalincomedistributiontendtorunlargetradesurpluses.
Theotherreasonhastodowiththesharethathouseholdsreceiveofeverythingtheyproduced.Acountrys
totalproductionisdividedbetweenhouseholds,businesses,andthegovernment.Althoughgovernmentsdo
makepurchasesthatwecanclassifyasconsumption,almostallconsumptioncomesfromhouseholds.This
matters,becauseincountriesinwhichhouseholdsareallowedtokeepaverylargeshareofwhatthey
produce,whethertheyareasthriftyasantsorasspendthriftasgrasshoppers,theirtotalconsumptionwillbe
ahighshareoftotalGDP,andtotalsavingsalowshare.Iftheirhighconsumptionencouragesbusinessesto
opennewfactories,lowsavingsandhighinvestmentmightevenleadthemtoruntemporarytradedeficits,
althoughonlyuntilthefactoriesbegintoproduce.
Butifhouseholdsretainalowshareofeverythingtheyproduce,withgovernmentsandbusinessesgettingthe
rest,thenagain,whethertheyareasthriftyasantsorasspendthriftasgrasshoppers,theirtotalconsumption
willbealowshareoftotalGDP,andthecountrystotalsavings,whichisequaltoGDPminusconsumption,
willbeahighshare.Onceagainiflowconsumptionactuallycausesinvestmenttodrop,theywillrunlarge
tradesurpluses.Noticehowever,thatthecountryhasahighsavingsratenotbecauseantshavesavedalot
oftheirearnings.Ithasahighsavingsratebecausebusinessesandgovernmentsareabletosavethe
moneythatwasnotgiventohouseholds.
ThisiswhathappenedinGermanyduringthepastdecade.WhileEuropeboomed,anumberoffactors
allowedcompaniestoreducewagegrowthinGermanysharply,leavingGermanhouseholdswithadeclining
shareofwhattheyproducedandbusinesseswithmorethanever.Asincomeinequalityalsoroseduringthis
time,Germanhouseholdconsumptionratesdroppedandsototalconsumptionratesdropped.Meanwhile,
GermancompaniesdecidedtoreducetheirinvestmentinGermany,perhapsbecauseGermanhouseholds
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werenotabletobuywhattheyproduced.HighersavingsandlowerinvestmentcausedGermanystrade
surplustosoar.
Soascounterintuitiveasitmayatfirstseem,tradesurplusesarenottherewardforhardworkorthrift.Trade
surplusescanhavemanycauses,toooftenjustthelowshareofGDPthatordinaryhouseholdsareallowed
tokeep,buttradesurplusesordeficitsthatpersistformanyyearsarealwaystheresultofsignificant
distortionsathomeorabroad.Risingproductivityandhardworkcanleadtostrongexportgrowth,butonly
netcapitalexportswillleadtoatradesurplus(or,morecorrectly,acurrentaccountsurplus).Ifcountrieslike
Germany,whosesurpluseshavecausedsomuchdamagetoEurope,weretoarrangeincomemorefairly,not
onlywouldEuropebenefit,butGermanyshardworkingandthriftyantswouldfinallygettheirrewardsa
higherincome,ratherthanalargernationaltradesurplus.
Thesecondfrustrationiscloselyrelated.Byshowingushowusefulhistoryisinunderstandingcurrentevents,
theauthorsalsoreveal,indirectly,howlittlevaluethereisinthevastliteratureofeconomictheorizingthat
emergesfromtheabstractanddistortedworldofacademia,bereftasitisofhistoricalcontext.
Formosteconomists,historyisusuallylittlemorethanadatasequencewhosevaluesarepluggedinto
mathematicalmodelswhoseimplicitassumptionstoooftenthesesameeconomistsfailtounderstand.But
asTeminandVinesshow,historyismuchmoreusefullyseenastheevolutionofoftencomplexinstitutions
financial,political,legal,cultural,andsoonthroughwhicheconomicbehaviorismediatedandwhichaffect
thewaysinwhichrecurringpatternsoffinance,commerceandtradeunfold,andthatwithoutan
understandingofhistorywelosesomuchcomplexityinourmodelsthatweoftenendupmakingveryobvious
mistakes.
CharlesCalomiris,aprofessoratColumbiaUniversitywhoseworkonbankingsystemsandbankingsystem
riskisamongthebestintheworldmademuchthesamepointatapresentationattheFederalReserveBank
ofAtlantalastmonth:Youhavetothinkhistoricallytothinkusefully.Traditionaleconomicmodelsdont
incorporatehistoricalanalysis,despiteitsusefulnessinexplainingfactorsbehindcrisesorfindingholes.
The200708globalcrisisanditsaftermatharesomucheasiertounderstandiftheperiodisplacedfirmly
withinhistory,whichtheauthorsdo,especiallyfocusingoneventsinthe1920sand1930s,twodecadesthat
havegreatresonancewiththepastfifteenyears.OneoftheirgoalsistoexplaintheinsightsthatJohn
MaynardKeynesprovidedontheworkingsoftheglobalbalanceofpaymentsastheyworkthroughthe
developmentofKeynesthinkinginrealtime.NotonlydoesthisfleshoutthelogicbehindKeynesevolving
theories,butitalsomakesiteasiertounderstandtheeventsthatinspiredKeynesultimatelytoovercome
RalphHawtreysobjectionsinafamous1930debatetohisintuitivesensethatexcesssavingsand
unemploymentwererelated,althoughthedebateitselfisnotdiscussedinthebook.
Whydoesthismatter?ItisimpossibletooverstatetheusefulnessofthereasoningKeynesprovidedthatlinks
savings,investment,unemployment,andtrade.JohnHobsonhadalreadyshownnearlyhalfacenturyearlier
howinstitutionaldistortionsthatforcesavingslevelshigherthanthelevelofdesiredinvestmentwillaffectan
openeconomy,butKeynescreatedaformallylogicalwaytothinkaboutit.Byusingthismodelweareableto
understandtodaywhyinaworldwithoutanearinfiniteamountofcredibledemandforinvestment(therole
theUnitedStatesplayedinthe19thCentury),highlevelsofincomeinequality,ordownwardpressureonthe
householdshareofGDP,mustleadalmostinevitablyfirsttorisingdebtandlatertorisingunemployment.*
Thesesavingsimbalancesareoftenattheheartofthegreatimbalancesinglobaltradeandcapitalflows,and
in e Leaderless Economytheauthorsclarifyimmenselythetransmissionofsavingsimbalancesfromone
countrytoanother.Domesticimbalancesinanyeconomymustbeconsistentatalltimeswiththatcountrys
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externalimbalancesor,putdifferently,anygapbetweenacountrystotalsavingsanditstotalinvestment
mustresultinacurrentaccountimbalance.
Soifhouseholdsconsumeadecliningshareofwhattheyproduce,eithertheymustincreaseinvestment
commensurately,sothatsavingsriseandGDPremainsthesame,or,ifinvestmentcannotrisefastenough
(infactinmostcasesitislikelytofall),unemploymentmustrisefastenoughtokeeptotalsavingsfrom
exceedingtotalinvestment.Ofcourseiftheyforcethedemandshortfallontotherestoftheworld,theycan
keepunemploymentdownbyexportingtheirexcesssavingsandrunningacurrentaccountsurplus,the
counterpartofwhichisacurrentaccountdeficitsomewhereelse.Thesearejustaccountingidentitiesthe
internalimbalancebetweenacountryssavingsandinvestmentisatalltimesconsistentwithandequaltoits
externalimbalance,andacountrysexternalimbalancesisatalltimesconsistentwithandequaltothe
externalimbalancesoftherestoftheworld.Tounderstandwhichcountrywillrunthecorrespondingexternal
imbalancedependsonthenatureoftheinstitutionsthroughwhicheconomicbehaviorismediated,andthisis
whyadeepgroundingineconomicandfinancialhistoryissoimportant.
*IexplainthemodelformallyintheAppendixto e Great Rebalancing: Trade, Con ict, and the Perilous Road
Ahead for the World Economy(PrincetonUniversityPress,2013)
Endofdocument
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