CapGemini Project Alex Dometrius: acd150330@utdallas.edu
Nader Ahmed: nxa152730@utdallas.edu Chris Ponmanissery: cxp120530@utdallas.edu Darrell Bowdon: dtb150030@utdallas.edu Recipe for failing ESPs: High Vertical Vibrations and Deep Wells Based on similar data points, KNN prediction models can reveal possible failures with 87% Our Findings accuracy. Regression models can predict individual ESP failures at 82.6% Decision based models can evaluate failure scenarios by identifying key reporting metrics. Repaired missing and mistyped values Created data visualizations to better understand the data To solve this problem we used KNN, logistical regression, and decision trees. Techniques K Nearest Neighbors aka KNN: an algorithm that finds patterns within given data and then uses that Used data to make predictions for new data Logistic Regression: a method that takes one or more independent variables and searches for patterns. The result is measured by the outcome accuracy of a single dichotomous variable Decision Tree: a decision tool that uses a graph with multiple binary breaks based upon key dividing features within data Visualizations separated the data by ESP, vendor, oil field, and block. By grouping ESPs in similar environments we gain better precision in identifying problems.
Other Visualizations: Box Plots and Histograms
Data Box Plots: Identifies statistics that had high variance or outliers Exploration Histograms: Identifies data spread.
To create our models we used a variety of different
testing approaches Overall testing sets: For a general look at the data Vendor segmented sets: To evaluate quality of each vendors products for future purchases Sets of metrics with different weights: To differentiate based upon importance of certain variables KNN Classification Results Vendor #1: 96% Prediction Accuracy Vendor #2: 95% Prediction Accuracy Vendor #3: 87% Prediction Accuracy Vendor 1 Offers a More Consistent Product
Logistic Regression: 82.6% Prediction Accuracy Methods Lets Us Generate a Mathematical Formula to Predict Failures with High Accuracy Decision Tree Classification Results Failure Determining Factors: Vertical Vibrations and Depth Crude Model Shows That Vertical Vibrations Greater Than 32.4 g and Depths Greater Than 2365 m Lead to a Higher Chance of Failing ESPs.