CO2 Emissions

Over Time

I am measuring the amount of CO2 emissions, in ppm, over time, or since the

year 1960. I used data from the Keeling Curve, the longest uninterrupted string of CO2

level data- every day since 1958. These measurement were taken in Manua, Hawaii

and are slightly below the global average, but only by 1-5 ppm. The data is accurate

and widely recognized. I chose to model CO2 emissions because climate change is a

very important global issue, and one that I have learned about in the past. In MUN, I

have researched and participated in climate-change-themed meets, so I know that the

global goal is to reduce temperature increase to 2C, and that emissions need to stay

under 550 ppm.

I chose to model this in two ways: first as an exponential model and then as a

trigonometric function. This is because, when I looked at the scatterplot for the data- all

of it, from 1958 to 2014, I identified a upward curving trend. Dividing each data point by

the one after it gave me a common difference. I used a second model, the

trigonometric, because I noted a periodic fluctuation on a monthly basis in CO2 levels,

which the exponential model didnt account for. This is the most accurate model I could

make, because it accurately represents the trend on a large and small scale. However,

it does not predict global climate change, and gets increasingly further off the further in

the future one goes, especially on a small scale.

The implications of climate change are bad. According to this model, we will

reach 440 ppm in about 2022. This is an amount weve stated we do not want to reach

because it will be difficult to keep the climate change under 2C, and its coming up too
quickly. In actuality, weve already reached global measurements of over 400 ppm, and

so now weve changed our goal to 550 ppm, which wont come until 2106. This is better

news. Having a working model tells us how much we need to do to reduce emissions

and also shows us the progress weve made.

xn/xn-11.019125 (common difference=b)

(x)=ab^x (normal equation with variables)
a=316.43 (y-intercept or starting value)
b=1.019125 (rate of increase)

(x)=316.43(1.019125)^(x/5) (Only models the large

scale data)

The small scale trend is periodic.

(x)=Asin(Bx)+C
A=2.5 (the amplitude- the season fluctuation from minimum to maximum is
about 5)
B=2*P, P=1, B=2 (because the period is 1 year)
The median line, C, was difficult because it changed. Then, I realized my
large scale equation modeled the change- so I used it as C!

(x)=2.5sin(2x)+316.43(1.019125)^(x/5)
Table:
Year since 1960 CO2 measurements My model

0 (1960) 316.43 316.43

5 (1965) 319.44 322.48

10 (1970) 325.03 328.65

15 (1975) 330.68 334.93

20 (1980) 337.8 341.34

25 (1985) 345.25 347.87

30 (1990) 353.79 354.52

35 (1995) 359.87 361.3

40 (2000) 369.25 368.21

54 (2014) 397.8 388.27

62 (2022) ??? 400 (a number we dont want to reach)

146 (2106) ???? 550 (a number we really dont want to reach)

My Model, Their Data
Sources:
"ESRL Global Monitoring Division - Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network." ESRL Co2
Trends RSS. US Department of Commerce, 8 Dec. 2014. Web. 9 Dec. 2014.
<http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html>.

Monroe, Rob. "What Does This Number Mean?" Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, 28 July 2014. Web. 10 Dec. 2014.
<https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2014/07/28/what-does-this-number-mean/>.

Demana, Franklin, Bert Waits, Gregory Foley, and Daniel Kennedy. Precalculus: Graphical,
Numerical, Algebraic. 7th ed. Pearson Addison Wesley, 2006. Print.

"Why We Use Climate Models." OCCRI Home. Oregon State University, 1 Jan. 2010. Web. 10
Dec. 2014. <http://occri.net/climate-science/climate-modeling/why-we-use-climate-models>.