.

2017

1
 2015

GDP growth rate 12 USD, e

(9 USD),
18 ( 7 USD), (6.5
17.5 USD).
13.5
4000
12.3
11.5 .
9
8.9
7.8
6.4
4.5

3
1
0
-1.3

-4.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2
 ,
, , .
.
-

.

40.0

27.5

15.0

2.5

-10.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 ^ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

9/5/2016 3

4

Share in GDP (%)

0 7.5 15 22.5 30


100%
100%

75%
75%

50%
50%

25%
25%
28%
0% 24% 18% 19% 18%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

100%

75%

50%

25%

11% 7% 6% 7% 7%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

7
8


5000 2011:

4000 2010:
$ million

3000 2008:

2005: O
2000
2001:

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: UNCTAD FDI/TNC Database and UNCTAD report of Investment Policy Review


10
 -

11


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,

470
250 , 100

80%

,

 , .
.

600 2003 2008 2014

518

450

300

213

165 164
150 134.7
102
78.6 79.2
59.6

0

Royal Cashmere

15
,
 2




1. 2 2.
... .

, (%, ) , , 2013 (%)

140
129.0481

105

70
Source: NSO Bulletin, World Bank staff estimates

35
20.5769
9.8560
6.1362 6.5567 7.7954 3.1036 5.6824
0
e

ity

or e
n

n
r

in

rin

io

d
tio

io
tu

an tra
in

ct

at
tri

ta
tu
ul

ru

ic
ec
ric

ac

Tr tail

un
st

sp
El
Ag

uf

on

re

m
an

om
C

&
M

le

C
sa
le
ho
W
2
 .



16. , 17. - ,
. .

(%,
- (%)
)

Source: NSO Bulletin, World Bank staff estimates

10


19
 2 ,
.

% % % %
65 12 12

63
9 9

62

6 6
60

58 3 3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1

9/5/2016 20
2006

21


, ,

22


2016 6.9%,

23
 The economy expanded by 11 percent during the
exports and FDI inflows. The start of OTs open-pit
Mongolias growth has been impressive.... c
: ,
Real GDP
growth
rate:
China
vs. Mongolia

(Year-on-year percent change)
20 20
China

15 Mongolia 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5
2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012
2002

2009

Sources: Mongolian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

24
25


26
the primary budget deficit and the overall budget deficit h
deficit including the off-budget spending will likely reach 5
(Figure 18)
(, )
Figure 15. Public debt will likely reach over 60% in 2014 F
d
Nominal public debt to GDP ratio (%) C
70%
Domestic
public debt
60%
External
public debt

Public
debt
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Source: MoF, BoM, WB staff estimates

27
ion in Mongolia in June. Outstanding loans reached US$4.5 billion
nd bi-lateral loans extended to the government.

Figure 54.
The recent increase-in ,
public external debt
was driven by
external commercial financing.
Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt (in billions of US$)
2014.Q2
%)
2014.Q1
2013.Q4
2013.Q3
2013.Q2
2013.Q1
2012.Q4
2012.Q3 BoM ST
External
Debt

2012.Q2
Commerical
External Debt

2012.Q1
2011.Q4 Bilateral & Multilateral excl.
BoM
ST debt

0 2 4 6

28
 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Source: MoF, BoM, WB staff estimates

Figure 17. Rising interest payment is increasingly Figu

-
constraining the fiscal space. , the
Interest payment expenditure of the budget Prim
8% 600 4

Interest
payment(billions
MNT): RHS
7% 2

Interest
payment (% of (%)
GDP): LHS 500
6% Interest payment (% of total spending): LHS 0
(%)
400
5% -2%
4% 300
-4%
3%
200 -6%
2%
100 -8%
1%
-10%
0% 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Source: MoF, WB staff estimates

29
Figure
led
43. Copper exports ,
strong export growth while non-
Figure 44.

copper -
exports remained moderate. prices.
Export growth with and without copper concentrates (yoy, %) Coal Export
Total export growth
80 Export growth excl. copper concentrate 100

60 80

40 60

40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60 -60

Jan-12

Mar-12
Source: NSO, WB staff estimates
30
Figure 3. Weakening construction and wholesale/business industry Figure
is dragging non-mining economic growth. robus
/
Non-mining Real GDP growth by sectors (%) Key m

Non-mining GDP:
Right Axis
Manufacturing: Left Axis
Construction: Left Axis Wholesale/Retail: 60
Left Axis
120 50 50

40 40
70
30
20 30
20
-30 20 10

-80 10 0
-10
-130 0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III -20

2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: NSO Bulletin, WB staff estimates

Composition of aggregate
31 expenditures shows that a
deficit narrows further through tighter economic policies
ears.
,
Figure 52. Large external public debt repayment is scheduled in
2017 and 2018.
External public debt service schedule (millions of US$)
1,200
Interest
payments

1,000

800 Principal
repayments

due
600
BoM
foreign
liabilities

400
as of June 2014
200

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

32
m.

r on- Figure 14. Consolidated budget deficit will likely be lower in

2014 but
will remain high at 7% of GDP
Annual Fiscal Deficit Trend (in percent to GDP, %): 2003-2014
45% 4%

2%
40%
0%

-2%
35%
-4%

30% -6%

-8% Additioanal Budget Deficit (DBM)

25% -10% Official Budget Balance

-12%
20% Source: WB staff estimates
13 2014f

33
13


34

.

9/5/2016 35


(
, )
0.6 , 5 1.4
, 1,
0.2 ,
1 ,
2
6 (- )

36
 2016-2020

37
 :
:
( 5 ), 2, 3
( ,
, )
: (, ,
), ,
( )
( ,
)
: ,
:

www.themegallery.com Company Logo 38


:

39
 ( )
(2005-2020)
Chart Title
1000
775

750
, .

500

205
250
111 50 70
126 130 126 117 122 141 135
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2020


()
 and gold exposure
Top 15 producing copper mines (2020)(1)

15

2020E C1 Cash Cost ($/lb)

Significant expansion potential

Turquoise Hill Resources/ Oyu Tolgoi(2)

and execution flexibility

Bubble size reflects contained copper resources (kt)
Independent copper producer and publicly traded
Owned by diversified miner or private

Phase 1 Phase 2 Future phases

2020E Copper Production (kt)
Source: Brook Hunt.
(1) Top 15 producing copper mines in 2020 include: Andina, Antamina, KGHM, Cananea, Cerro Verde, Chuquicamata, Collahuasi, El Teniente, Escondida, Grasberg, Norilsk, Los
Pelambres, Kansanshi, Morenci, Oyu Tolgoi, Radomiro Tomic.
(2) Production and 10 years average cash cost from 2013 Oyu Tolgoi technical report. 4

Oyu Tolgoi long section

Southern Oyu Deposit: Hugo North Deposit : Hugo North (Lift 2)

1.0bt reserve 0.5bt reserve Hugo South Deposit:
0.8bt Inferred resource
1.3bt M&I resource 0.9bt M&I resource Heruga Deposit:
0.5bt Inferred resource 1.2bt Inferred resource 2.0bt Inferred resource

Conventional open pit truck and Underground block cave mine Ongoing optimization of
shovel operation Ore grade 4x higher compared to production schedule and
Secondary source of ore open pit expansions sequencing
feedstock once underground Ramp up from 2016 to 95ktpd Analysis of drill data to generate
operations have ramped up FS to be completed in H1 2014 exploration targets
Cash flow generation from 2013

100ktpd concentrator

Potential concentrator expansions to accelerate production

Source: 2013 Oyu Tolgoi technical report.
Note: Reserves and resources stated on 100% ownership basis. The mineral reserves reported above are not additive to the mineral resources.
9


(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)

.
.
 :

6 .
(measured), (indicated), (inferred) 3
.
 ( )

2000 .
2050 2100


/ /

9
8.3%
0,8% 7.5%
0.3
6.8

0.7
8.3
6.5 %
4.5

3.5

2.3

1.8 1.8

LIBOR Spread Technical Guarantee Advisor fee

Lender fees Commitment fees Withholding tax impact
 1 2
( )

/

0.9" 300" / 4"

0.8" 3.5"
250"
0.7" 3"
0.6"
200" 2.5"
0.5"
2"
0.4" 150"
1.5"
0.3"
100" 1"
0.2"

0.1" 0.5"
50"
0" 0"
"" "" " "
(/)" (%)" 0" ""($/ ""($/lb"
"()" "(.)" lb"Cu)" Cu)"

"" ""

46


300000

225000

150000

75000

2% .


Projections: Ernst and Young, 2013

140

105

70

35

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
49


06-30
(%)

.4 %
8 030 E: 3
00 62
2

5 1%
802 006: 2.
1 9

0
1980 2000 2006 2015 2030

1980-2006 2.1 . 2006-2030

3.4 . -
.

, .
-: 2015 900 - /60% /
-: 2012 126 - /40% /
: (AME)
 - 3

Selenge
(5 Mtpa)
Darkhan Metallurgical
Plant (Operating) Eruu gol
(8 Mtpa)
Altanbulag
Tumurtei
Darkhan Beneficiation (1 Mtpa) Ereen Tsav
(0.04 Mtpa)
Tolgoi
(1.1 Mtpa)

Beren Mining Ervei Khushuu

(0.1 Mtpa) (0.5 Mtpa)
Ulaanbaatar

Bargilt
(1.1 Mtpa)

Bulgan Tayannuur Ereeny

(9 Mtpa) (1.1 Mtpa)
Sainshand Beneficiation
Oyut Ovoo (4 Mtpa)
9 (2.5 Mtpa)
Mtpa Burgastai
Sainshand Iron Plant* 8
Railway (Planned)
Border crossing Mtpa 13.7M
Iron ore mine Zamiin Uud tpa
Iron concentrate mine
Shiveekhuren
Export destination Gashuun Sukhait
Domestic destination
Beneficiation plant
Metallurgical plant

*Sainshand Industrial Park (SIP) Iron Pelletizing Plant 53

|


,
$30.0
$1.0 $3.0

$16.0
-

$2.5 $2.0
$0.46

$0.8 $1.20
$ 3

$2.0
5

$ 1.0 $1.2

$3.5

, 47.8

55
6
I.
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49200

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5191

600.4
46500
1908 km 132 km
km
4
www.mrt.gov.mn
www.mrt.gov.mn www.mrt.gov.mn
56
Aspire mining railway

57



''
229%
,


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'''
%
'


02'

''''
300%
' ,
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270% 3 , 1000
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,
,
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GE, Newcom
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100

(52 , 120
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, Ferrostaal

62
 Tourism
2016

63

GMIT
NMIT
1000



-


16
--

-


-


/2010-2040 /

2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

28.0 30,000.0 55,000.0 70,000.0 70,000.0 70,000.0

. 25.2

. 2,181.40 3,900.0 4,400.0 4,400.0 4,400.0 4,400.0 4,400.0

35% . 340 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 1,400.0 1,500.0

47% 4.348.0 5,400.0 5,600.0 6,000.0 6,000.0 6,000.0 6,000.0

6,0 25.00.0 34.000.0 34.000.0 30.000.0 30.000.0 30.000.0

. 3,2 6,500.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0

. 140.7 120.0 120.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0

. 112.6 110.0 110.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0

99% 2,746.20 2,500.0 2,500.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0

. 20 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0



*100
* -10

www.mrt.gov.mn 67


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(170 ) - (620 )
,

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(500 )

,
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3


,
(3600 ) - (380 )

-
(45 )

I - 1100

- -
II - 900 - -
(215 ) III - 3600(456 )
(430 )

www.mrt.gov.mn

68


-
170

www.mrt.gov.mn
69

4, 5
5 12
IRKUTSK
LONDON
BERLIN
MOSCOW
FRANKFURT
UST-KAMENOGORSK ULGII HAILAR
ULAANBAATAR
BEIJIN

URUMIQ
HOHH
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STANBUL OT
TIANJIN

SHANGH
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DELHI HONG KONG

SANYA
BANGKOK


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()



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www.mrt.gov.mn 15

70


2012
5
(2013)
2016-17

,
71
 2020

72