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RISKCURVES
Version 10
2016 TNO
RISKCURVES
2016 TNO
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Contents 3
Table of Contents
Foreword 0
Chapter I Introduction 13
1 TNO software
...................................................................................................................................
products 13
2 Installation
................................................................................................................................... 14
System requirem..........................................................................................................................................................
ents 14
The protection ..........................................................................................................................................................
key 14
Installation and
..........................................................................................................................................................
de-installation 15
Upgrading from ..........................................................................................................................................................
version 9 15
Upgrading from ..........................................................................................................................................................
older versions 17
3 What ...................................................................................................................................
is RISKCURVES 20
Which task can..........................................................................................................................................................
RISKCURVES perform 20
What is the required
..........................................................................................................................................................
input 21
What kind of results
..........................................................................................................................................................
are obtained? 21
4 What's
...................................................................................................................................
new in version 10 29
Chem ical database
..........................................................................................................................................................
structure 30
Mixtures .......................................................................................................................................................... 33
Limitations .........................................................................................................................................................
for mixtures 33
Calculation.........................................................................................................................................................
of properties of mixtures 34
Evaluating .........................................................................................................................................................
mixture properties 35
Usage of Projection
..........................................................................................................................................................
system s 37
New and adapted..........................................................................................................................................................
m odels 40
Support for tile
..........................................................................................................................................................
servers 41
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7 Analysis
...................................................................................................................................
points 90
8 Result...................................................................................................................................
panel tabs 91
9 Graph...................................................................................................................................
display panel 92
Presenting Model
..........................................................................................................................................................
Results 93
Base functionality
..........................................................................................................................................................
graphs 93
10 (Autohide)
...................................................................................................................................
Scenario selection panel 96
11 Command
...................................................................................................................................
button panel 97
12 Node ...................................................................................................................................
input panel 98
13 Graph...................................................................................................................................
selection box 99
14 Profile
...................................................................................................................................
expert button 100
15 Map...................................................................................................................................
display panel 101
Presenting geographic
..........................................................................................................................................................
calculation results 103
Positioning equipm
..........................................................................................................................................................
ent 106
Map functionality
.......................................................................................................................................................... 106
Map legend options
.......................................................................................................................................................... 108
16 Report
...................................................................................................................................
panel 112
17 Model
...................................................................................................................................
log panel 114
18 Legend
...................................................................................................................................
panel 116
2016 TNO
Contents 5
Meteorological
..........................................................................................................................................................
data 163
Population .......................................................................................................................................................... 164
Equipm ent .......................................................................................................................................................... 165
Scenario .......................................................................................................................................................... 166
Modelset .......................................................................................................................................................... 168
Cum ulation sets
.......................................................................................................................................................... 168
Com parison..........................................................................................................................................................
sets 169
Analysis points
.......................................................................................................................................................... 170
Consequence ..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk 172
Dam age definition
.......................................................................................................................................................... 173
Consequence ..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk levels 176
Societal Risk.......................................................................................................................................................... 178
Individual Risk
.......................................................................................................................................................... 178
Iso Risk Contours
.......................................................................................................................................................... 178
Societal Risk..........................................................................................................................................................
(FN) Curve 180
Project file .......................................................................................................................................................... 181
SR Maps .......................................................................................................................................................... 181
2 The ...................................................................................................................................
consequence models within a modelset 186
Gas release .......................................................................................................................................................... 187
Gas release
.........................................................................................................................................................
from a vessel or pipe 187
Gas release
.........................................................................................................................................................
from a long pipeline 188
Liquefied gas..........................................................................................................................................................
release 189
DIERS top.........................................................................................................................................................
venting (vessel only) 190
Vapour release
.........................................................................................................................................................
from vessel or pipe 190
Pressurized
.........................................................................................................................................................
liquefied gas release from vessel or pipe 191
Spray release
.........................................................................................................................................................
of pressurized liquefied gas from vessel or pipe 192
Instantaneous
.........................................................................................................................................................
flashing liquid release 194
Liquefied .........................................................................................................................................................
gas from long pipeline 195
Liquid release
.......................................................................................................................................................... 195
Pool evaporation
.......................................................................................................................................................... 197
Atm ospheric..........................................................................................................................................................
dispersion 199
3 Combined
...................................................................................................................................
models 201
4 Cumulation
...................................................................................................................................
of sources 203
5 Model
...................................................................................................................................
input parameters 206
Absorption speed
.......................................................................................................................................................... 207
Absorption surface
.......................................................................................................................................................... 207
Adiabatic vapour
..........................................................................................................................................................
flash fraction 207
Air relative hum
..........................................................................................................................................................
idity 207
Alw ays use fast
..........................................................................................................................................................
dispersion m odel 207
Am bient pressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 208
Am bient relative
..........................................................................................................................................................
hum idity 208
Am bient tem..........................................................................................................................................................
perature 208
Am ount of CO2..........................................................................................................................................................
in atm osphere 208
Angle betw een..........................................................................................................................................................
hole and flam e axis (?) 208
at distance .......................................................................................................................................................... 209
at distance to..........................................................................................................................................................
the source 209
at tim e t .......................................................................................................................................................... 209
Atm ospheric..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure 210
Atm ospheric..........................................................................................................................................................
transm issivity 210
Average m ass ..........................................................................................................................................................
flow rate 210
Average release
..........................................................................................................................................................
rate (1st 20%) 210
Average release
..........................................................................................................................................................
rate (2nd 20%) 210
Axial distance..........................................................................................................................................................
from release (Sd) 211
Based upon tim..........................................................................................................................................................
e 211
Blast w ave shape
..........................................................................................................................................................
at Xd 212
BLEVE calculation
..........................................................................................................................................................
type 212
Burst pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 212
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Calculate contours
..........................................................................................................................................................
for 213
Calculate toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
contour by 213
Case description
.......................................................................................................................................................... 213
Cause of vessel
..........................................................................................................................................................
failure 213
Chem ical nam ..........................................................................................................................................................
e 214
Cloud cover .......................................................................................................................................................... 214
Cloud passage ..........................................................................................................................................................
tim e 214
Com bustion..........................................................................................................................................................
rate 214
Concentrating ..........................................................................................................................................................
averaging tim e flam m ables 216
Concentrating ..........................................................................................................................................................
averaging tim e toxics 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at (Sd, Yd) 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at (Xd, Yd, Zd, t) 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at m axim um plum e rise 216
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at plum e touch-dow n 217
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
at plum e's centre-line at Xd 217
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
averaging tim e 217
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
indoors at tim e t 218
Concentration ..........................................................................................................................................................
reduction at t 218
Confined m ass..........................................................................................................................................................
in explosive range 219
Contour plot..........................................................................................................................................................
accuracy 219
Cross-sectional
..........................................................................................................................................................
area of the tank 219
Curve Num ber .......................................................................................................................................................... 220
CurveNum ber ..........................................................................................................................................................
for ME 221
Dam age (general
..........................................................................................................................................................
description) at Xd 221
Dam age to brick
..........................................................................................................................................................
houses at Xd 222
Dam age to structures
..........................................................................................................................................................
(em pirical) at Xd 222
Dam age to typical
..........................................................................................................................................................
Am erican-style houses at Xd 223
Day Month Year..........................................................................................................................................................
num ber 223
Default m ixingheight
.......................................................................................................................................................... 224
Define population
..........................................................................................................................................................
by 224
Density at tim..........................................................................................................................................................
eT 224
Density gas at..........................................................................................................................................................
pipe exit at tim e t 224
Diam eter of expanded
..........................................................................................................................................................
jet 224
Diam eter of expanded
..........................................................................................................................................................
jet at tim e t 225
Discharge coefficient
.......................................................................................................................................................... 225
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
center of the pool (Xd) 225
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
centre m ass of confined explosive cloud to point of study 226
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
centre m ass of the cloud at w hich threshold overpressure is reached 226
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
centre of vessel (Xd) 226
Distance from ..........................................................................................................................................................
release (Xd) 227
Distance perpendicular
..........................................................................................................................................................
to w ind direction (Yd) 228
Distance to plum
..........................................................................................................................................................
e touch-dow n 228
Distance to toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
dose D or fraction of m ortality F 228
Dose at (Xd, Yd,
..........................................................................................................................................................
Zd) 229
Dose reduction..........................................................................................................................................................
at t 229
Duration of the
..........................................................................................................................................................
fire 229
Duration of the
..........................................................................................................................................................
release 229
Equivalency factor
.......................................................................................................................................................... 230
Equivalent TNT..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass 230
Evacuation tim..........................................................................................................................................................
e 230
Evaporation from
..........................................................................................................................................................
Land or Water 231
Exit vapor m ass
..........................................................................................................................................................
fraction 231
Exit vapour m..........................................................................................................................................................
ass fraction at tim e t 231
Expansion type.......................................................................................................................................................... 231
Explosive Mass.......................................................................................................................................................... 231
Explosive m ass
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 232
Exposure duration
.......................................................................................................................................................... 232
Exposure duration
..........................................................................................................................................................
to heat radiation 233
2016 TNO
Contents 7
Extrapolated..........................................................................................................................................................
tim e to em pty pipeline 233
Filling degree..........................................................................................................................................................
(liquid volum e/tank volum e) 233
Filling degree..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 233
Fixed indoors ..........................................................................................................................................................
outdoors toxic ratio 234
Flam e path length
.......................................................................................................................................................... 234
Flam e tem perature
.......................................................................................................................................................... 234
Flam e tilt .......................................................................................................................................................... 235
Fraction com..........................................................................................................................................................
bustion heat radiated 235
Fraction confined
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass in ME 236
Fraction of CO2
..........................................................................................................................................................
in Atm osphere 236
Fraction of flam
..........................................................................................................................................................
m able cloud confined 236
Fraction of liberated
..........................................................................................................................................................
energy going to kinetic energy 237
Fraction of m..........................................................................................................................................................
ortality at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 237
Fraction of the
..........................................................................................................................................................
flam e covered by soot 237
Fragm ent distribution
.......................................................................................................................................................... 238
Froude Num ber.......................................................................................................................................................... 238
Frustum lift off
..........................................................................................................................................................
height (b) 238
GAME equivalent
..........................................................................................................................................................
curve num ber 239
GAME expansion..........................................................................................................................................................
type 239
Graph Area of ..........................................................................................................................................................
the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Tim e 239
Graph Circle ..........................................................................................................................................................
circum scribed to m axim um distance to threshold concentration at Zd 240
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
Contour Plot 240
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
in the plum e vs Distance 240
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Axial distance at Yd 241
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs. Dow n-w ind distance at tim e t and (Yd, Zd) 241
Graph Concentration
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs. Tim e at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 241
Graph Distance..........................................................................................................................................................
from rupture to interface vs Tim e (COPY) 241
Graph Dynam..........................................................................................................................................................
ic pressure vs Distance 242
Graph Explosive
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ass vs. Tim e 242
Graph Filling..........................................................................................................................................................
degree vs Tim e 243
Graph Fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
of m ortality vs. Dow n-w ind distance at (Yd, Zd) 243
Graph Height..........................................................................................................................................................
of the liquid inside the vessel vs Tim e 243
Graph Jet velocity
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Axial distance at Yd 243
Graph Mass ..........................................................................................................................................................
flow rate vs Tim e 244
Graph Mass ..........................................................................................................................................................
of liquid rem aining in the vessel vs Tim e 244
Graph Mass ..........................................................................................................................................................
of vapour rem aining in the vessel vs Tim e 244
Graph Maxim..........................................................................................................................................................
um concentration vs Dow nw ind distance 244
Graph Maxim..........................................................................................................................................................
um range contour plot 245
Graph Overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
contour plot 245
Graph Overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Distance 245
Graph Plum e..........................................................................................................................................................
height vs Distance from stack 245
Graph Plum e..........................................................................................................................................................
radius vs Distance from stack 246
Graph Positive..........................................................................................................................................................
phase duration vs Distance 246
Graph Pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit vs Tim e 246
Graph Pressure..........................................................................................................................................................
im pulse vs Distance 247
Graph Quality..........................................................................................................................................................
outflow at pipe exit vs Tim e 247
Graph Tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit vs Tim e 247
Graph Tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs Axial distance 247
Graph Total m ..........................................................................................................................................................
ass released vs Tim e 248
Graph Toxic Contour
..........................................................................................................................................................
Plot 248
Graph Toxic dose
..........................................................................................................................................................
vs. Dow n-w ind distance at (Yd, Zd) 248
Graph Vessel ..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure vs Tim e 248
Graph Vessel ..........................................................................................................................................................
tem perature vs Tim e 249
Graph Void fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
at pipe exit vs Tim e 249
Grid resolution
.......................................................................................................................................................... 249
Ground / Surface/
..........................................................................................................................................................
Bund tem perature 249
Heat em ission..........................................................................................................................................................
from fire surface 250
Heat flux from..........................................................................................................................................................
solar radiation 250
2016 TNO
8 RISKCURVES
Heat of reaction
..........................................................................................................................................................
per kg product 250
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
at Xd 250
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
dam age probits 250
Heat Radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
Exposure Duration 251
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
level total destruction 252
Heat radiation ..........................................................................................................................................................
levels in contour plot 252
Height (Zd) .......................................................................................................................................................... 252
Height bottom ..........................................................................................................................................................
of the fire ball 252
Height difference
..........................................................................................................................................................
betw een pipe entrance and exit 253
Height leak above
..........................................................................................................................................................
tank bottom 253
Height of confined
..........................................................................................................................................................
pool above ground level 254
Height of congested
..........................................................................................................................................................
area 254
Height of construction
.......................................................................................................................................................... 255
Height of liquid
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 255
Height of observer
..........................................................................................................................................................
above ground level 255
Height of pool ..........................................................................................................................................................
at T=0 256
Height of the..........................................................................................................................................................
plum e's centre-line at Xd 256
Height to LEL..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 256
Hole contraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
coefficient 256
Hole diam eter .......................................................................................................................................................... 257
Hole rounding .......................................................................................................................................................... 257
Hole type .......................................................................................................................................................... 257
Include overpressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
effects 257
Indoor Ventilation
..........................................................................................................................................................
ratio 258
Initial density.......................................................................................................................................................... 258
Initial height ..........................................................................................................................................................
of the liquid above release point 258
Initial jet pressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 258
Initial jet tem..........................................................................................................................................................
perature 258
Initial liquid m
..........................................................................................................................................................
ass fraction 259
Initial m ass in
..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 259
Initial plum e ..........................................................................................................................................................
density 259
Initial pressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
in pipeline 259
Initial pressure
..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel 259
Initial source..........................................................................................................................................................
strength 260
Initial speed ..........................................................................................................................................................
of fragm ent 260
Initial tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
in pipeline 260
Initial tem perature
..........................................................................................................................................................
in vessel 260
Inside fraction.......................................................................................................................................................... 260
Integration tolerance
.......................................................................................................................................................... 260
Inverse Monin-Obukhov
..........................................................................................................................................................
Length (1/L) 261
Is the vessel..........................................................................................................................................................
elevated? 261
Jet velocity at..........................................................................................................................................................
(Sd, Yd) 262
Latitude .......................................................................................................................................................... 262
Length cylinder.......................................................................................................................................................... 262
Length of cloud..........................................................................................................................................................
(betw een LEL) 263
Length of frustum
..........................................................................................................................................................
(flam e) (Rl) 263
Length of rectangular
..........................................................................................................................................................
pool 264
Length of toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
contour 264
Length source ..........................................................................................................................................................
in w ind (x), crossw ind (y) and z-direction 264
Length-Diam..........................................................................................................................................................
eter ratio of the vessel 265
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
dam age report 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
flam e contour 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
flashfire 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
Pressure inside dam age 266
Lethal fraction..........................................................................................................................................................
pressure total destruction zone 266
Liberated energy
.......................................................................................................................................................... 266
Lim it of m om..........................................................................................................................................................
entum region 267
Liquid m ass ..........................................................................................................................................................
fraction in cloud 267
2016 TNO
Contents 9
2016 TNO
10 RISKCURVES
2016 TNO
Contents 11
Threshold overpressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 302
Threshold toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
dose D 302
Tilt angle central
..........................................................................................................................................................
axis flare (ab) 302
Tim e needed..........................................................................................................................................................
to em pty pipe (extrapolated) 303
Tim e needed..........................................................................................................................................................
to em pty vessel 303
Tim e pool has..........................................................................................................................................................
evaporated 303
Tim e pool spreading
..........................................................................................................................................................
ends 304
Tim e t after cloud
..........................................................................................................................................................
arrival 304
Tim e t after start
..........................................................................................................................................................
release 304
Total com bustion
..........................................................................................................................................................
energy 304
Total m ass in..........................................................................................................................................................
cloud 304
Total m ass in..........................................................................................................................................................
explosive range 305
Total m ass in..........................................................................................................................................................
vessel 305
Total m ass involved
..........................................................................................................................................................
in BLEVE 305
Total m ass of..........................................................................................................................................................
decom posable chem ical in vessel 305
Total m ass released
.......................................................................................................................................................... 306
Total m ass released
..........................................................................................................................................................
at tim e t 306
Toxic dose indoors
.......................................................................................................................................................... 306
Toxic dose outdoors
.......................................................................................................................................................... 306
Toxic Exposure..........................................................................................................................................................
Duration 307
Toxic Exposure..........................................................................................................................................................
Duration based on 307
Toxic Inhalation
..........................................................................................................................................................
Heigth 308
Transition tim..........................................................................................................................................................
e to vapour flow 308
Turbulent Free..........................................................................................................................................................
Jet Pressure 309
Type of calculation
.......................................................................................................................................................... 309
Type of confinem
..........................................................................................................................................................
ent 310
Type of flow ..........................................................................................................................................................
inside the vessel 310
Type of flow ..........................................................................................................................................................
of the jet 311
Type of pool.......................................................................................................................................................... 311
Type of release
.......................................................................................................................................................... 312
Type of spreading
.......................................................................................................................................................... 313
Type of subsoil
.......................................................................................................................................................... 313
Type of TNT equivalency
.......................................................................................................................................................... 313
Typical obstacle
..........................................................................................................................................................
diam eter 314
Use 50% LEL.......................................................................................................................................................... 314
Use dynam ic..........................................................................................................................................................
concentration 314
Use Gam e overpressure
.......................................................................................................................................................... 314
Use m ass betw..........................................................................................................................................................
een LEL and UEL 315
Use w hich representative
..........................................................................................................................................................
step 315
Used sauter ..........................................................................................................................................................
m ean diam eter 316
User com m ent.......................................................................................................................................................... 316
Ventilation rate
..........................................................................................................................................................
at daytim e 317
Ventilation rate
..........................................................................................................................................................
at nighttim e 317
Ventilation ratio
.......................................................................................................................................................... 317
Vessel em ptying
..........................................................................................................................................................
duration 317
Vessel Type.......................................................................................................................................................... 317
Vessel Volum ..........................................................................................................................................................
e 318
View factor .......................................................................................................................................................... 318
Volum e Blockage
..........................................................................................................................................................
Ratio 319
Volum etric fraction
..........................................................................................................................................................
of chem ical at release point 319
Water tem perature
.......................................................................................................................................................... 319
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of CO2/chem ical 319
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of H2O/chem ical 320
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of HCl/chem ical 320
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of NO2/chem ical 320
Weight ratio ..........................................................................................................................................................
of SO2/chem ical 320
Width of cloud..........................................................................................................................................................
(betw een LEL) 320
Width of frustum
..........................................................................................................................................................
base (W1) 320
2016 TNO
12 RISKCURVES
Width of frustum
..........................................................................................................................................................
tip (W2) 321
Width of toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
contour 322
Wind com es ..........................................................................................................................................................
from (North = 0 degrees) 322
Wind direction..........................................................................................................................................................
for dam age 322
Wind speed at ..........................................................................................................................................................
10m height 322
X or Z offset ..........................................................................................................................................................
dispersion 322
X, Y - coordinates
..........................................................................................................................................................
of release 322
Z - coordinate..........................................................................................................................................................
(height) of release 323
6 Risk ...................................................................................................................................
parameters 323
Base frequency.......................................................................................................................................................... 323
Bleve fraction.......................................................................................................................................................... 323
Calculate Heat..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk by 323
Calculate Toxic
..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk by 324
Cell size for ..........................................................................................................................................................
risk grids 324
Cell size for ..........................................................................................................................................................
population grids 324
Chance delayed..........................................................................................................................................................
ignition 325
Chance direct ..........................................................................................................................................................
ignition 325
Create Consequence
..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk Contours 326
Create Societal
..........................................................................................................................................................
Risk Maps 326
Cum ulate transport
..........................................................................................................................................................
routes 326
Fraction frequency
..........................................................................................................................................................
in daytim e hours 326
Fraction w ith..........................................................................................................................................................
explosion phenom ena 327
Frequency Correction
..........................................................................................................................................................
Factor 327
Frequency equally
..........................................................................................................................................................
distributed day/night 327
Inter accident..........................................................................................................................................................
distance FN 327
Inter accident..........................................................................................................................................................
distance FX 328
Is tem porary..........................................................................................................................................................
(population) 328
Level interpolation
..........................................................................................................................................................
m ethod 329
Low est significant
..........................................................................................................................................................
frequency 329
Maxim um accident
..........................................................................................................................................................
points per route 329
Maxim um toxic..........................................................................................................................................................
exposure duration 330
Meteorological..........................................................................................................................................................
Daytim e Fraction 330
Num ber subsectors
..........................................................................................................................................................
FN 330
Num ber subsectors
..........................................................................................................................................................
FX 330
Perform societal
..........................................................................................................................................................
risk calculation 331
Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
.......................................................................................................................................................... 331
Utilisation fraction
.......................................................................................................................................................... 331
Index 339
2016 TNO
Introduction 13
1 Introduction
This manual is delivered in Adobes PDF-format and as CHM help file format. You are free to
print the manual for your own use with respect to the license conditions of the software.
You can access this manual directly from within the software from the Help menu or via the
installed entry in the Windows START-menu.
If you discover any omissions, errors or inconsistencies, we kindly ask you to contact us
directly via email (helpdesk.riskcurves@tno.nl) or use the built-in email feature accessible
from the About box.
EFFECTS
EFFECTS performs calculations to predict the physical effects (gas concentrations, heat
radiation levels, peak overpressure's etc.) of the escape of hazardous materials. Results are
presented in either textual or graphical format. Furthermore it is equipped with an internal GIS
viewer (Geographic Information System) that enables the user to present the calculation
results of effect and consequence calculations on a map background.
Models in EFFECTS are based upon the Yellow Book, third edition, second print 2005 [1] or
may have been adapted to more recent theoretical insights. Background information about the
source of the model is provided through the menu option "Help"- "Model documentation".
EFFECTS can also model complex releases by linking individual models in such a way that
they describe all physical phenomena that may occur during that release. For example a
liquid release will consist of a release model, connected to an evaporation model, which is
then linked to a dispersion model that calculates the concentration profiles in the environment.
Finally it might be linked to an explosion model to calculate the ultimate effects due to peak
overpressure's or heat radiation if the chemical is flammable and ignites.
RISKCURVES
RISKCURVES is a full-featured computer program to perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
(QRA). It is capable of calculating geographical risk, offsite societal risk, injury risk, onsite
societal risk and personal individual risk. Transport risk is supported for all types of risk.
RISKCURVES can analyse risk by means of the most dominant contributor, construct all
types of societal and individual risk curves, display risk contours, calculate transport risk per
kilometer of route and export relevant data to GIS (Geographical Information Systems) like
ArcView and ArcInfo.
More information about RISKCURVES can be obtained from our sales department.
2016 TNO
14 RISKCURVES
Because the DIPPR database contains a "Second Virial Coefficient", which describes the non
ideal (compressibility) behaviour of a chemical, results of calculation with the DIPPR
databases may differ from YAWS based calculation, especially in the case of gas release
calculations.
Throughout this manual, the acronym DIPPR is used to denote the extended database. The
Design Institute for Physical Property Data and its acronym DIPPR are registered
trademarks of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) and are used by
permission.
1.2 Installation
1.2.1 System requirements
RISKCURVES 10 is developed for the Windows 7/8/10 OS platforms. There are no special
requirements with respect to memory or disk space other than a free USB-port to
accommodate the protection key. For more complex calculations, RISKCURVES benefits
from additional internal memory and a faster processor. RISKCURVES 10 runs on Windows
7/8/10 64-bit as a 32 bit application and has been thoroughly tested on 64 bit environment.
The protection key is remotely programmable by TNO and contains information about the
owner and specification of the granted license (program, version, options etc.). Before its first
use or if the license conditions change (due to the purchase of an upgrade or additional
option), the key will need to be reprogrammed once. This process requires access to email
functionality and instructions will be included with the delivery of the software.
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Introduction 15
The software comes with a full-featured setup program. Please follow the instructions
carefully and make sure the protection key is NOT inserted during installation. The default
driver for the protection key that is installed is from Hasp/Sentinel. If the same driver but in a
newer version is required by another software program, the installation for RISKCURVES can
be omitted. If in that situation RSIKCURVES does not recognise the protection key correctly,
please contact the TNO helpdesk: helpdesk.riskcurves@tno.nl
De-installation is done by selecting the appropriate entry in the installed program group under
the Windows START menu. Alternatively, one can use the "Uninstall" option within the
"Programs" group in the windows control panel.
However Since RISKCURVES 10 now uses a real world projection system, all location
related data may need to be converted to work correctly. As of version 10, coordinates of
equipment, positioning of background maps etc. are at an absolute position in a specific GIS
projection system. Version 9 was positioning everything relative to a self defined origine,
usually a (0,0) coordinate.
Upon opening a RIKSCURVES 9 project, an import wizard will be opening, guiding the user in
importing, because this translation requires an important decision with respect to the
projection system applicable to the project.
If the version 9 project contains societal risk calculations which are based on an imported
grid, it is strongly advised to use the default recommendation by the software .
The conversion to a known GIS system may lead to some loss of detail of the
population grid.
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16 RISKCURVES
Option 1: No conversion: All the coordinates are within the range of 20 km of a (0,0)
coordinate. Everything remains unchanged and a default mercator projection system is used.
Option 2: Move to (0,0): Coordinates withing the project have higher values than
(20000,20000) meters from origin. To avoid any deviation with the original calculations due to
projection system translations, all geographic data is translated to a new (0,0) coordinate
located at the lower left of the study area. After selecting this option, the user has the
possibility to adjust the new origin to a coordinate within the boundaries of the project area.
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Introduction 17
Option 3: Convert from a known GIS system: In this case, the user have been defining all
equipment locations in a well defined projection system. This will remain the original
coordinates and utilize a fixed system.
Projects
RISKCURVES differs in project file format from RISKCURVES 7. The new files are identified
by their .riskcurves extension. The RISKCURVES 7 project files use the .clc extension.
Once the required RISKCURVES 7 project file is selected, clicking the Convert button will
create a new project file suitable for RISKCURVES in a definable project folder. The original
RISKCURVES 7 file will not be overwritten. All input needed to recalculate will be included,
including population and meteo definition. Rresults are not converted since they are probably
not valid since the calculation accuracy and method has changed.
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To convert user defined chemicals from your old database (.rdb file), start the converter and
click 'Open File'. Select the database file with your user defined chemicals and click 'Open'.
You can now select chemicals in the left-hand list, and drag them (or click the '>>' button) to
the right-hand list: this will import the selected chemicals into the new database labeled as
user-defined chemical. The right-hand list will show you all chemicals in the new user
database.
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Introduction 19
If you've imported too much chemicals by mistake, you can delete them later in the Database
Editor.
To be able to use version 4 input files, it is advised to convert these input files by the update
procedure of RISKCURVES 7 itself. This will provide a RISKCURVES 7 (.clc and .inf) format
file, which can be read within the new RISKCURVES 9.
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A Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) analyses the risks of accidents involving with
dangerous substances, resulting in lethal victims, injuries and/or material damage to
surroundings. In order to be able to compare risks, quantitative values are given for Individual
Risks and Societal Risk.
RISKCURVES uses an intuitive modular approach, allowing the use of topographic maps or
aerial pictures to define potential Loss of Containment Scenarios. Advanced geographic
presentations can be created by using the internal GIS presentation system. Based upon the
Yellow Book [1], Green Book [2], and Purple Book [3], the effect and consequence models
included within RISKCURVES provide a sound, scientific and transparent basis to perform a
QRA.
The number of degrees of freedom for a QRA is huge. The publication CPR 18E (Purple
book: Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment) provides important guidelines on choosing
equipment, (Loss of Containment) scenarios to be evaluated, effect-calculation models and
background information like meteorological data.
The calculation of chances and effects of the identified events will lead to quantitative values
for Individual Risks and Societal Risks. Individual Risk are usually presented as Iso Risk
Contours: lines on a topographic map which represent point with equal PR value: e.g. the 10-
6 contour.
The number of degrees of freedom for a QRA is huge. The publication CPR 18E (Purple
book: Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment) provides important guidelines on choosing
equipment (so-called sub selection method), the typical "Loss of Containment" scenarios to
be evaluated, effect-calculation models and background information like meteorological data.
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Introduction 21
Within CPR-18, it is prescribed which equipments and which scenarios should be evaluated
within a QRA. Within RISKCURVES, the user can simply add any equipment which is present
within the system boundaries of the site to be studied. The location of the equipment needs to
be provided as equipment coordinates or a route. It is strongly advised to use a digital
background map of the area as underground. Once the equipment is positioned,
RISKCURVES can add the corresponding LOC scenarios (G1, G2, G3), including the failure
rate frequencies and event or phenomena dependent probabilities.
1. Definition of one or more accident scenario(s) which includes the applicable frequencies of
the accident scenarios. RISKCURVES distinguishes an equipment: containing the location
of a possible event, the possible scenario's at that equipment: defining the frequencies,
and an underlying modelset: defining the damage zones.
3. It is very convenient (but not obliged) to use a digital background map to position the
scenarios and use as a background layer when presenting results.
4. Environmental conditions typical for the location of the study area (temperatures, humidity,
solar radiation) need to be provided.
A person who is on a specific location will have a chance to be a lethal victim of an accident
at installation A and an accident at location B. Both chances can be added together and
presented on a geographic map as Iso Risk Contours.
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22 RISKCURVES
The individual risk criteria assumes 100% presence and an unprotected situation outside. A
so-called Iso Risk Contour can be drawn by connecting all points with equal Individual Risk.
The Individual Risk can also be presented in a so-called FX curve, which presents the fraction
lethal versus distance from the release point, for different wind-directions.
2016 TNO
Introduction 23
Risk contours are available on the level of a calculation set, cumulation sets, comparison sets
and individual equipments.
A Risk transect can be provide for a specific line track. Such a transect will provide the risk as
a function of the place along this track.
Apart from illustrating the the chance on lethality, it is also possible to show the chance of a
specific consequence level occurring, as shown in Consequence Risks.
The Consequence Risk (CR) is defined as the chance per year that a specific threshold
level of a physical effect (overpressure, heat radiation, toxic load) is exceeded. The CR
Contours on a map present locations were the CR has identical values.
Where individual risk contours illustrate the chance of lethality on a location, consequence
level contours illustrate the chance that a specific pressure level, heat radiation level or toxic
threshold is exceeded. This particular information is used in facility siting (positioning of
buildings and constructions showing the chance of them being exposed to a specific effect
level) and potential injury risk evaluation.
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24 RISKCURVES
The specific levels of interest to be shown in the contours must be defined in Consequence
risk settings where heat load and toxic load may be also be presented in dose levels.
Note that changing a threshold levels requires an adapted risk calculation so recalculation is
required upon change. (which is not the case for a change in "presentation settings") .
Because the consequence Risk contours are specific for a defined threshold level, the
contour legend TITLE describes the levels shown for the different phenomenon.
So called analysis points can be added a any location to present Risk Ranking reports at that
spot. Such a report will present a ranking of all scenarios based on their contribution to the
(individual) risk at that point.
The Societal Risk Curve (FN-curve) presents the cumulated risk that a group of specific size
will be killed. The FN curve is depicted as a two dimension graph, using a logarithmic scale
on frequency F (Y-axis) and number of victims N (X-axis) axiss. The curve is interpreted
using a Guide value, which is a line that should preferably not be crossed. RISKCURVES
will present a Guide Ratio R value, indicating the distance to this guide value (a guide ratio
>1 implies exceeding the guide line), and also presents the Expected value E which is the
size of the area below the FN curve.
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Introduction 25
A FN curve appears to be not very easy to understand or explain. The curve is the result of
spatially distributed risk sources that may influence a geographically distributed population
distribution, whereas the result only present a curve. Questions that often raise are: Do we
have a problem and Where is this problem or What is causing this problem. To be able
to answer these kind of questions, a Societal Risk Map was developed and these
presentations are now available within RISKCURVES.
Two different maps can be presented: the SR area map, which indicates whether the guide
ratio is higher than one on a specific spot. The SR area map illustrates affected zones, and
height of the societal risk at a specific spot.
As a result of the demand for a visualization of the societal risk, a new type of presentation
was developed in 2007. The question was raised when a societal risk calculation is fed with
geographical based information on population, and geographical based scenario locations,
why can we not see a geographical distribution of the societal risk.
Such a presentation would be very convenient for emergency response (were are the people
who are threatened by accident) or urban planning activities (how much space left for
population without exceeding societal risk limits: the guide value)
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26 RISKCURVES
To provide answers to both question two types of graphs were developed: the Societal Risk
Area Map and the Societal Risk Contribution map.
The Societal Risk Area map gives an indication of which areas are affected and
the height of the risk
whereas
The Societal risk Contribution Map gives an indication which cells contribute
to the societal risk
The bases for the presentation is that every grid cell from the population grid has its own FN
curve. In the case of the Contribution map, this curve relates to the victims within this
population cell. The higher the risk of this cell (expressed as the expected value of the curve)
the more red the color will be.
2016 TNO
Introduction 27
For the contribution map, the expected value is used to translate the two dimensional FN
graph into a color. The type of coloring can be adjusted, it appears that using a 6 color levels
(use legend ) provides the best contrast, but other coloring might improve the visualization.
This way the curve represents the full societal risk of scenario's for the area. Note that this
area bounded FN curve will never exceed the overall FN curve for all cells.
For the societal Risk Maps it is important to understand that the risk is determined from the
receivers point of view (instead of from source).
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28 RISKCURVES
Furthermore, because of the nature of the method, cumulating of various risk sources is
possible: transport & stationary installations, small & large scenarios
The idea behind this new type of visualisation is that this provides a supplementary view of
what is happening, and the maps facilitate considering societal risk in early stage of planning
process:
- the SR Contribution map shows which areas contribute most (emergency response)
2016 TNO
Introduction 29
The underlying FN graphs per location, that are use to derive these map presentations, are
presented for every "Analysis (risk ranking) point". The societal risk at the location will display
the FN curve of all scenarios that are affecting this location, the contribution FN graph will
display the FN curve for the population within the population grid cell.
First of all, the GIS presentation system (MAP view) now supports the use of coordinate
projection systems which means that when loading existing Vs 9 projects, a decision needs
to be made which system to use.
Apart from background maps that are loaded from file background maps can now be
streamed from internet based tile servers .
Secondly, some important features were added to the consequence models , most
significantly the possibility to work with Mixtures, and the corresponding new Chemical
database structure now separating user defined chemicals from "official records" and
allowing to include records various user or company specific files.
Apart from the additions of coordinate projection systems and possibility of defining chemical
mixtures, several consequence models have been adapted as well
For damage definitions, an option was added to use a "blockmode" level distribution, avoiding
interpolating between provided threshold levels but using a equal lethality within every
provided lethality level.
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The first thing to be aware of, when starting to work with version 10, is the fact that settings
(<Edit>,<Options>) now contains a chemical database manager that potentially allows
multiple selections for database files to use!
Upon selecting the browse buttons indicated above, the list of database files will be
presented. By default, the software will be equipped with a file called "ChemicalDatabase.tci"
containing all official DIPPR and YAWS substances.
However, the user should always add at least one "user definable" file, on a location where
write access is available! All modifications on existing chemicals, or additions of mixtures, will
be stored in this user specific file.
Note: When multiple user defined storage files are provided, the last (bottom) one in this list
will act as the active storage file for standard modifications and is illustrated in bold
characters. Chemical records from other files will be available for selection, but standard
modifications (additions, copies or defined mixtures) will be put in this bold active "user file".
When using multiple database locations, the active user file can be selected using the <up>
<down> buttons on the right of the screen.
All database that have an asterisk in front of the name are potentially writable, and can be
used to store user defined copies (use copy chemical to.. to store into specific user files). If a
user database file is write protected, it cannot be used to store modifications and copies of
chemicals . Any modifications to records that are already in a writable database will be made
in the original database. If a specific user database needs to be protected (for instance
because it is a company specific list), the administrator should add a "Read only" property to
these databases. This will result in having modifications stored in the remaining active "User
file" (bold name), and not in the original data file.
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Introduction 31
The idea behind the possibility to include multiple chemical databases is that users can share
company specific files (e.g. from network locations) whereas user modifications will be stored
in user specific files.
If a user has been defining "user defined chemicals" in RISKCURVES version 9, these
records can be transferred to the new separated user file. Please refer to the chapter
"Converting version 9 user chemicals" if user defined chemical definitions need to be
translated into version 10.
Once the chemical editor is opened (by selecting the toolbar button or clicking the browse
button behind a chemical input field) a modified database editor will be presented.
First of all, the interface now contains a selection possibility to define the "sources" of
chemicals to be displayed. The standard database will contain DIPPR 2010, DIPPR 2015,
and YAWS (1999) databases. Apart from these, a dedicated TNO source containing water
and air (used inside models) is provided. As soon as the user changes or add properties to
existing DIPPR or YAWS records, "User defined [date]" sources will be created and
selectable.
Secondly, mixtures can be now defined in this editor: Either by selecting chemicals and
selecting "Add to mixture" or be defined by dragging a chemical to the "Mixture" panel at the
bottom of the screen.
User can also create "copies" of existing chemicals, or "create" mixtures. These new
chemicals will be added to a "User Defined" source. When using the right mouse button, a
popup menu will appear showing "Copy chemical", "Add to Mixture", "Add Property", "Add
Synonym" or "Change F2":
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32 RISKCURVES
The Name box allows the user to enter a text (e.g. "chlori") part to use as a filter on the
chemicals.
The Show field is expandable and allows selecting "Flammables", "Toxics" or "All" also
filtering sets of chemicals.
Sources provide check boxes can be used to limit the sources to include in the search.
The user can expand the selected chemical by pressing the tree node, which will reveal the
typical properties.
A Mixture can also be defined by dragging a chemical to the "Mixture" panel at the bottom of
the screen. If components have been added to a mixture, the user needs to define the amount
of the component in the mixture. This can be based both on Molar fraction AND on mass
fraction (use right mouse button to select either mass or moles). The parts don't have to
combine to 100 but the fraction will be corrected to the total number of parts.
After selecting <Apply> a name for the mixture needs to be provided and the Chemical
mixture will be stored in the user database.
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Introduction 33
1.4.2 Mixtures
Mixtures are defined as combinations of chemicals. Many of the substances used in (petro)
chemical operations are no pure substances, but mixtures of multiple components, especially
hydrocarbons, and for that reason play an important role in consequence modelling.
As of RISKCURVES version 10 the functionality for definition and usage of (user defined)
combinations of chemicals components was added.
For this purpose the chemical database editor has been redesigned, now allowing to create
(define) and edit mixtures.
By default, RISKCURVES 10 contains some typical sample mixtures like "Gasoline, Kerosine,
Fuel Oil, Crude, LPG, Low Caloric natural gas". However, because these substances typically
may have locally deviating compositions, it might be required to adjust or redefine those
typical hydrocarbon mixtures.
One should keep in mind that these mixing rule DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT so-called
binary interaction coefficients, nor account for chemical reactions or absorption effects, and
are thus not reliable for typical polar mixtures! This particularly means that mixtures like
Ammonia/Water etc. can still hardly be modelled.
Another limitation is the fact that inside the models, we assume a CONSTANT
COMPOSITION. Especially in (pool) evaporation, one should expect the most volatile
components to be the first to evaporate, eventually leading to a time dependent changing
composition of both the evaporated mass and the remaining pool (liquid) . Please note that
RISKCURVES can not deal with a time varying compositions, so the mixture is to be
assumed to have a constant composition, even for gas and liquid phase.
Furthermore, it appeared that usage of chemical mixtures may also lead to MULTIPHASE
mixtures: one component may be solidified (lower that triple point / melting point) whereas
other components are in liquid or even vapour state. Especially because mixtures typically
have a boiling region, instead of ONE boiling point, liquid vapour equilibrium now can be a
temperature range. Typically, liquid/vapour combinations can be handled, but solid/liquid
mixtures will give a warning, and (pool) evaporation will stop if the "ideal mixing based" melting
point is reached. Smaller amount of solids are accepted in outflow and evaporation, but
viscosity and density are not corrected for occurrence of solid particles.
It also need to be mentioned that the current database equations are based on simple
(quadratic) Equations Of State (EOS): only including compressibility based on second virial
coefficient. This means that calculation in SUPERCRITICAL CONDITIONS will be unreliable,
because density calculations in this region should be based on more complex EOS.
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34 RISKCURVES
Warning 1: Although real world mixtures (such as gasoline) may include dozens of unique
component substances, many of these components occur only in very low fractions. Although
it is possible to include all these fragments into the mixture definition, these very low fractions
will hardly influence the thermodynamic behavior. Because of this low influence, and because
complex model calculations (such as TPDIS two phase discharge) will include iterations over
temperature dependent chemical properties, dramatically increasing calculation time, it is
advised to limit the number of components to a maximum of 10.
Mixture properties will be calculated using specific mixing rules dependent on the typical
property to be evaluated. By default, "Ideal mixing" is used, however, some properties require
a different approach, as listed below:
- Explosion limits (LEL and UEL) : Are calculated using "Le Chatelier's"rule
2016 TNO
Introduction 35
- Viscosity: The liquid and vapour viscosity is calculated using "Kendal-Monroe" relation:
- Boiling points, Critical point temperature, Melting points or Triple point temperature: Highest
or Lowest value:
Because mixtures will have a boiling range, the mixture will start to boil at its lowest boiling
point. Also the first component arriving at its critical point will determine that we don't have a
pure liquid anymore, the first component starting to solidify will create a liquid/solid mixture.
For that reason, a boiling or critical point will be based on the lowest values, and the melting
or triple point are based on highest temperature. Inside pool evaporation, the ideal mixing
based melting point is used to determine to stop liquid evaporation. This is because in
gasoline-like mixtures, it is accepted that some cyclic of parafines may be solid, whereas the
main substance is still a liquid. In these liquid/solid mixture situations, the phase detection
routine give a warning because liquid density and viscosity will be less accurate due to some
components being in a solid state.
Because there is no clear rule on how combine multiple toxic substances (toxics can have
different behavior: Narcotic or Irritating) the toxicity of a mixture will be based on the most
toxiccomponent. The most toxic component is defined as that component having the lowest
LD50 (30 min) concentration. The Probit B and Probit N will simply be taken from this
component, the Probit A and all toxic threshold will be corrected for the fraction of this (most
toxic) material available.
In the Chemical Editor, selecting the specific mixtures property will illustrate both the mixing
rule used, as well as the resulting values:
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36 RISKCURVES
For temperature dependent properties, the graph will display all components behavior,
including the resulting mixture relation. The minimum and maximum temperatures are
determined by the highest and lowest occurring values for the individual components. Note
that this may lead to situations where the resulting mixture (red line) has a very small valid
range (because outside those boundaries one component will be either solid or gas):
2016 TNO
Introduction 37
2016 TNO
38 RISKCURVES
The projection system contains a strict definition in what units, with which reference system
and which visualization angle (where is North) coordinates should be displayed. Previous
version of EFFECTS and RISKCURVES would always work in local meters, and a pure
North-East oriented Y-X axis system, where the only degree of freedom was the zero-zero
coordinate.
Since the earth is spherical, a challenge faced by cartographers and GIS professionals is how
to represent the real world using a flat or planar coordinate system. To understand their
dilemma, consider how you would flatten half of a basketball; it can't be done without
distorting its shape or creating areas of discontinuity. The process of flattening the earth is
called projection, hence the term map projection. A projected coordinate system is defined on
a flat, two dimensional surface. Projected coordinates can be defined for both 2D (x,y) and 3D
(x,y,z) in which the x,y measurements represent the location on the earth's surface and z
would represent height above or below mean sea level.
Unlike a geographic coordinate system, a projected coordinate system has constant lengths,
angles, and areas across the two dimensions. However, all map projections representing the
earth's surface as a flat map, create distortions in some aspect of distance, area, shape, or
direction. Users cope with these limitations by using map projections that fit their intended
uses, geographic location, and extent.
The GIS functionality of version 10 now allows to transform information between coordinate
systems to support integration of different background maps and allows exchange with to
GOOGLE earth (save as KML, show in maps or earth) and import officially geo-referenced
background maps.
As of version 10, the software support coordinate projection systems, allowing to export and
import geographical material from various sources, without the need to reposition imported
background maps or exported results such as contours and grids.
The standard system to be used has to be defined in "Presentation settings": this offers a
huge list of standardized projection systems. The default choice here is WGS 84 Pseudo
Mercator. This choice defines the coordinate system to be used for all presentations in the
map view. To be able to derive coordinates or distances from this map, the crosshair cursor
or scale bar can be used.
2016 TNO
Introduction 39
It is important to emphasis that the choice of the project projection system should be the first
thing to decide. Changing the project system after equipment locations and receiving objects
have been placed will change the values associated with the coordinate, and might lead to
rotated or even disappearing maps and locations: because there not "in view" in the changed
system. (For example, a back ground map in Dutch Amersfoort RD system will no longer show up when
the project is changed to Singapore SVY21 and will be rotated when displayed in Swedish National Grid
system).
Note that once a user start with importing a background map, the associated
projection system for this background map needs to be defined. (Except for so-called
GeoTIFFS which already contain a choice for the projection system applied) This also means
that different projections systems can be applied for different background map layers. The
global "presentation settings" project projection system defines the units, and angles that will
be used for the Map display window, potentially resulting in a rotated background map, if that
background map uses a different projection system.
For shape files, a projection system can be included, potentially defined in the associated
.PRJ extension file. For this reason it is required to keep the SHP, DBF, SHX and PRJ files
grouped together.
If the projection system of the background map (selected during import) differs from the
project setting, this can lead to the situation that this background will be presented as a
slightly tilted map, sometimes leading to somehow blurred or un-sharp images. It is advised
to choose the project setting projection system equivalent to the main background maps to be
used.
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40 RISKCURVES
- Outflow models: The spray release model now also contains a new "Statistical spray"
method, which is applicable for CO2 as well (which is a solid/gas equilibrium). Instead of
using one typical droplet size, this model uses a droplet size distribution, where rain-out
fraction is highly dependent of these droplet sizes and height of the release (falling height).
The model can work with different number of samples, influencing the calculation time and
accuracy of the distribution. Compared to the original "Yellow book" model, this model
results in a higher approximation of the rainout fraction. The spray release model now
contains a selection box allowing to choose "Yellow book", "Aminal rule" or "Statistical spray
method".
- The pool evaporation model will provide warnings when being applied with YAWS
chemicals, because the calculation of the Schmidt number uses critical volume which is
highly unreliable when derived for YAWS chemicals.
- Combined models outflow: All G3 "Leak" scenario now allows to used a "fixed flowrate"
instead of a calculated flowrate based on hole size and pressure. This option is available
within Gas, Liquid, Liquefied gas an Unified LOC combined models. When using this "fixed
flowrate" selection, the model will calculate a corresponding required exit pressure to obtain
this flowrate. This exit pressure is often required in many following calculations (like turbulent
jet or spray release). This fixed flowrate can be used in situations where release rate and hole
size are given, such as a specific pumping rate.
- The BLEVE model was originally only used to calculate the fireball phenomenon, although a
BLEVE abbreviation itself refers to an explosion behavior. The BLEVE fireball model can now
also calculate BLEVE overpressure, which is based on "BLEVE blast" calculation method
as published by van der Berg. (see model references). The BLEVE blast calculation is also
available as a separate explosion model.
- The BLEVE fireball model no longer uses a BLEVE mass as input, but asks for storage
conditions like vessel volume and temperature. Depending on these storage conditions a
BLEVE mass incorporated within the phenomenon will be calculated. This BLEVE mass is
based on the generally accepted rule of "3 times the adiabatic flash fraction". This is
particularly important for (pressurized) LNG tanks, were usage of the full vessel contents
would lead to overestimation of the fireball phenomenon.
- All fire models will now report both heat radiation level contours and damage contours.
Furthermore, a heat radiation footprint can be presented for pool fire and jet fire.
2016 TNO
Introduction 41
- The pool fire model has been extended with a new "two zone pool fire" method, which is
based on original publication from Rew&Hulbert (see model references). Apart from this new
calculation method, separating the flame in a clear and a sooty part, the model will now
calculate the view factor using a "Discretised Radiation Method", which was already used for
jet fires in version 9. Due to this extension the pool fire can now have any shape: circular,
rectangular, a rim or a user drawn polygon pool shape. The specific burning rate, which
was previously hard-coded for chemicals listed in the Yellow Book, is now added as a
chemical dependent property. The values that are listed here are taken from the more recent
Rew&Hulbert publication. If no data is provided, the Burgess relation is used to calculate the
burning rate.
- The Multi- Energy explosion model can now also use the GAME correlations ("Guidance
on the Application of Multi Energy", see model references) to estimate the blast strength.
Instead of using a fixed ME curve number, the max. overpressure will be calculated based
congestion characteristics: "Volume Blockage Ratio", average diameter of the obstacles,
laminar burning velocity of the chemical and flame path length. These substance dependent
laminar burning velocities have been added to the chemical database as a property.
- The "explosion dispersion" model have been renamed to "flammable cloud" and now also
support presentation of 50% LFL concentration contours.
Use the <right> mouse button to add background and select "Add tile server" which will open
a dialog window
Note that the usage of tile server usually requires a license of the publisher of these map tiles.
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42 RISKCURVES
Note that to be able to combine tile server background with user provided file based
backgrounds, the correct projection system for the file based background needs to be
provided. If this is also chosen as project projection system, tilting of pixel maps is avoided
and server tiles and file based maps can be seamlessly combined:
2016 TNO
Quick Start Guide 43
The guide is not a detailed reference guide, nor a complete how to user manual but helps
user to quickly understand the concepts of RISKCURVES version 9.
At any time you may refer to the full technical reference manual which is provided with
RISKCURVES, or consult the built in help system by pressing <F1> for more detailed
information.
The new interface provides intuitive methods for copying and pasting user definitions (such as
scenarios) but remains uncluttered and clean. Access to standard actions, such as adding or
deleting nodes is provided by context menus (popup menu: right mouse click) and standard
shortcuts (Del, Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V).
The standard screen is divided in three parts: a (hierarchical) tree view, an input parameters
panel, and a (tabbed) result panel. The input and results panel always reflect their contents to
the active (selected) node of the tree. Switching from active node will also change the
contents of the input and result panels, eliminating the use of a present or edit button.
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The top of the main form contains typical menu items, providing conventional access to main
functions and a toolbar. The left bottom side contains the three main buttons < Clear>, <
Defaults> and < Calculate>.
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The top node, called Riskcurves Project is a typical placeholder of all user input. The project
corresponds to the information stored in a typical file, reflected by the name of the node. The
name of the topnode reflects the current project filename.
The caption style of a node also reflects the current state: italics imply "not calculated yet", a
red caption indicates incomplete or wrong input.
The tree view illustrates the hierarchy which is automatically occurring while defining input for
a QRA:
A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), a RISKCURVES project can contain multiple
Calculations Sets in one project (and thus file).
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Results of a calculation are influenced by their general parameters, which are combined in
Calculation settings; these settings will be applied to all scenarios belonging to the
calculation set.
The equipment node is used to define the geographic positioning of scenarios; a typical tank,
vessel, installation or transport route can be defined at this level. Note that the background
map can be used to select a coordinate or define route points.
Each equipment can contain multiple scenarios: for vessels typical scenarios may include a
leak, a full bore rupture, and a catastrophic (instantaneous) release scenario. Each scenario
however, has its own failure frequency, describing the chance of this accident happening, and
consequence description.
RISKCURVES is capable of using its own internal (EFFECTS) consequence model, which
can be a fire model, dispersion model or explosion model, but users can also define a
damage definition. These Damage definitions can be used to enter results from consequence
calculations from external models, or use damage zone definitions which may be
standardised or prescribed by authorities.
The use of the hierarchical tree node allows the possibility to copy scenarios (same leak on
another installation), copy equipments (same set of scenarios belonging to a vessel copied to
another location) , or even copy entire calculation sets (same calculation but with altered
frequency, population etc).
A calculation set will have results in terms of Individual Risk Contours and Societal Risk
Graphs and Societal Risk Maps.
A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), RISKCURVES can contain multiple Calculations Sets
in one project (and thus file).
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A calculation set always contains the sub nodes Calculation settings, a Meteo data node,
Population (if societal risk calculation is required), stationary equipment and transport
equipment, because these contents together determine the result of a calculation.
A calculation set has a few settings, allowing to either include or exclude the societal risk
calculation, societal risk maps and consequence risk contours.
It doesnt have its own parameters, but combines several groups of parameters, to be applied
to all input contained in a calculation set. Typical parameters are Accuracy describing
parameters influencing calculation accuracy and speed, Vulnerability settings describing the
relation between physical phenomena and damage (lethality), and Environment parameters,
describing ambient temperature, humidity, solar radiation etc. for the typical location.
It is also possible to calculate a Consequence Risk, which give the risk of exceeding a
specific consequence level threshold. If this option is activated, additional "consequence risk
threshold levels" need to be set.
The meteorological data definition contains the choice for the meteorological station to be
used. Any meteorological data set contains probabilities for typical weather classes (Pasquill
stability class, wind-speed, day or night) occurring at the location (see meterological
distribution). The number of weather classes defined will determine how many damage
definitions / consequence models are contained under a scenario (e.g only D5 and F2 or 6
different classes!).
The probability of a risk occurring at a specific location is highly influenced by the probability of
the wind blowing from the accident location towards that location. In order to take this into
account, a meteorological definition has to be supplied. Meteo data consists of the definition of
typical Pasquill stability class with a wind speed (e.g. D5 or F2), the probability of that class
occurring, and the probability for the wind-directions for that class and is applicable for the
region where the scenarios are to be defined. This data is usually supplied by meteorological
station at airports etc. and can be predefined for met-stations at your country.
A new meteo-station definition can be added under menu Edit, Option default meteo
distribution and the browse button:
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All definitions that are provided in Options can be selected in the combobox in the input panel of the Meteo data node:
Once a meteo station location has been entered, the red label will turn to black, illustrating
that acceptable input has been provided.
Note that the provided (Dutch) meteo station definitions all contain 6 weather classes, but it is
also possible to use only two any other number of different Pasquill classes. Using only two
classes imply that calculation time will be reduced since the consequence models need to
perform two calculations.
Population definition node contains the definition of population by means of grids (a matrix
like definition of cells) or polygons (area definition with number of inhabitants).
Population can be added by using the Population Import Wizard, or by manually adding a
polygon and defining an are with population. See defining Population.
The total cumulation of all grids and polygons under the grouping node will be used to create a
total population grid, used within the calculation sets Societal Risk calculation.
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Both day an night grid will use a separate "Inside fraction" determining the fraction of the
people that are inside houses and have a some degree of protection (see vulnerability
settings)
When using "temporary polygons", it is possible to use a dedicated "inside fraction" and
"utilisation fraction" (a presence factor).
Temporary population can be used to include the presence of large crowds (e.g. festivals,
sport events) during a FRACTION of the time. This is particular relevant if large numbers of
people are outside (thus unprotected).
Note: When using many (say more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the
same event (when they are close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a
single event), this procedure can get time consuming because all potential combinations of
these areas need to be evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas
we need to evaluate: A and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C
exposed, only A, only B , only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every
combination has its own probability of occurrence!
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Once stationary equipment locations or transport equipment routes have been defined, typical
LOC (Loss Of Containment) scenarios belonging to the equipment can be added. Select the
equipment and press <Right Mouse><Add scenario> and select the type of scenario to be
added from the branch of models:
Combined models support multiple phenomena; if a material is both flammable and toxic, or
direct and delayed iginition can occur, these combined LOC model chains will distinguish
several phenomena.
The combined models are supplied for Gaseous, Liquid and Two phase materials, and are
available for specific release cases. A release can be either an instantaneous release (called
G1 scenario in the Purple Book), a release within 10 minutes (G2 scenario) or a leak scenario
with a specific hole size (G3 scenario). If the user doesnt know the state of , one can select
the Unified LOC model, which determines the state itself, and provides a choice to evaluate
Damage definition s can be used to enter pre-calculated consequence areas. The damage
models are also dedicated to a specific phenomenon.
Another possibility to add scenario is by using the floating panel: Select an equipment node,
and hover the mouse over the white line on the left border of the RISKCURVES window. A
model selection panel will unfold, illustrating different possibilities by family name:
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After the scenario has been added, the definition itself needs to be provided.
A scenario definition consists of two elements: a frequency part and a consequence part.
The tree visualises this as two nodes of the scenario: the scenario node and the
corresponding (consequence) modelset. For a scenario, main parameters are base
frequency (expressed as chance of occurrence per year), a possible correction factor (which
can be used to represent risk reduction actions), and a daytime fraction. The daytime fraction
can be used to express the situation that an activity only takes place during day or night time.
By default, this fraction should be the average occurrence of daytime situation, according to
the meteorological data definition (e.g. for Netherlands 44% is daytime). If another fraction is
used, this implies that the activity is predominantly shifted into day or night time.
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Combined models also require entering a fraction for direct ignition, delayed ignition, BLEVE
and explosion phenomenon. For single phenomenon models, is it assumed that this fraction
is already included in the base frequency. Pressing the < Defaults> button will quickly enter
feasible frequency / probability values here, but is not advised because failure frequencies
tend to be very specific for the typical situation.
A Modelset is the placeholder for the actual consequence definition. It contains either a
damage definition or consequence calculation, which is defined for a number meteorological
conditions
It is possible to define altered input values for specific weather class conditions by selecting
the weatherclass from the combobox.
A cumulation set can be used to make a dedicated cumulation of risk sources that does not
contain all equipment or all scenario's, presented corresponding SR or IR results.
Very often one is not interested in the fully accumulated results of all scenarios, but want to
know the contribution of a specific subset of scenario, e.g. only flammable scenarios or
accumulation of specific vessels or equipments. Such a subset can be made using a
Cumulation Set. Define a new set by selecting the Cumulation sets node and selecting
<Right Mouse> <Add cumulation set>. Give it a descriptive name (e.g. Only Flammables)
and use the checkboxes to select which equipments or separate scenarios should be
incorporated within this accumulation. After pressing the <Calculate> button, which only
takes a few seconds, the subset results will be presented.
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It is important to realise that a Cumulation set can also be used to ADD different calculation
sets. This way, it is possible to combine calculations for different parts of a site, for example
containing different production processes, and add them all together in one result as a
cumulation. This cumulation result will include Iso Risk contours, Societal risk graphs and SR
maps.
A Comparison set allows to compare results for Calculations Sets or Cumulation sets; it will
provide multiple graphs and contours.
RISKCURVES has the possibility to perform multiple QRA calculations, and compare results.
This can be used to validate the influence of a changing population, or generally: a changed
risk situation.
To perform multiple QRA calculations, the most rigorous way would be to copy and paste an
entire calculation set: select the node for the calculation set, press <Ctrl-C> and <Ctrl-V> (or
use edit copy / paste) and a complete calculation set will be added. Again, use descriptive
names for the different calculation sets, e.g. Larger storage capacity or Including new
Urban Development population and modify the contents of the copied calculation set
accordingly.
After calculation (which may take some time again), these results can be compared using the
comparison Set.
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However, in many cases it is possible to add a new or modified scenario to the standard
calculation set and use a Cumulation set to exclude this from being added to the result. Since
all defined Cumulation Sets are also included within a Comparison set, this can be used to
verify the influence of a modified scenario, without the need to copy the entire calculation set.
Realise that copying a full calculation set will result in big projects with many duplicate
scenarios.
To start comparing different calculation sets or cumulation sets, define a Comparison set by
selecting the node and selecting <Right mouse> <Add comparison set> . All calculation sets
and cumulation sets of the project will be visible here. Use the checkboxes to include or
exclude a set. When comparing individual risk contours, only one level of interest will be
shown. This particular level can be modified within the presentation settings.
Start RISKCURVES (see Installing the software and starting RISKCURVES) and choose
File | New from the main menu or press the New project toolbar button. The user is
asked for a project name, and an empty project tree will be created.
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To create and run a QRA calculation, the following steps need to be taken:
Goto the background node and select < Right mouse> < Add background>.
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This process is performed on the project tree node "Background maps". Use the right mouse
button and select "Add background map" from the popup-menu.
This will invoke an "Open file dialog" allowing to browse and select a file of the currently
supported formats: PNG, JPG, TIF, BMP, SHP and DXF.
Note that SHP and DXF are vector based files and already contain a dimensioning coordinate
system, but may require the selection of a projection system. In this case, a blue warning "No
coordinate system found" is displayed, and a corresponding projection system needs to be
selected. By default the "project projection" is proposed, but the system should be match the
internally used coordinate system. If the shape file is accompanied with a PRJ file, containing
projection information, no additional choice is required.
If a pixel oriented file (PNG, JPG, TIF or BMP) is selected, the user MUST select a projection
system an MAY need to also provide dimensions of the map. If a georeference file is found,
the suggested extent will already be shown.
The dimensioning of the map can be checked with the scale bar (which can be moved) or by
using the "show coordinates" checkbox option in the lower left corner.
Note that pixel formats require the use of a ESRI worldfile to be able to determine scale and
location of the image, whereas the vector formats SHP and DWG already include scale and
position information.
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Apart from incorporating file based background maps, the user can also use background
which are loaded from an internet based "tile server".
Use the <right> mouse button to add background and select "Add tile server" which will open
a dialog window
Note that the usage of tile server usually requires a license of the publisher of these map tiles.
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Note that to be able to combine tile server background with user provided file based
backgrounds, the correct projection system for the file based background needs to be
provided. If this is also chosen as project projection system, tilting of pixel maps is avoided
and server tiles and file based maps can be seamlessly combined:
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The Environment block is most likely to be modified since it describes typical environmental
conditions applicable for the region were the QRA is to be performed: parameters like
ambient temperature, water temperature, humidity, surface roughness, solar radiation flux,
latitude and cloud cover are country and even location dependent.
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The values that are entered here will be "pushed" into each modelset that will perform a
consequence calculation.
One can define or alter default environment to be used when creating a new project by using
menu Edit Options Default environment.
A new meteo-station definition can be added under menu Edit, Option default meteo
distribution and the browse button:
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All definitions that are provided in Options can be selected in the combobox in the input panel of the Meteo data node:
Once a meteo station location has been entered, the red label will turn to black, illustrating
that acceptable input has been provided.
Note that the provided (Dutch) meteo station definitions all contain 6 weather classes, but it is
also possible to use only two any other number of different Pasquill classes. Using only two
classes imply that calculation time will be reduced since the consequence models need to
perform two calculations.
To add population, select the <Total population> node and use < Right mouse> <Import
Population> or < Add Population Polygon>.
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Note that as of version 9, it is possible to combine multiple grids or polygons; the resulting end
population will be created on the base of ALL grids an polygons defined in the yotal population
node, using the defined population grid cell size.
A population grid can be imported from an ASCII based grid, ESRI grid format (provided by
local authorities) or the previous RISKCURVES Vs 7 .POP file.
Apart from grid based input files, population can be also created from polygons loaded a
shape file.
To import an external grid, select the "import population" from the popup menu at a population
node.
Follow the suggestions by either selecting a Population Grid (cell based distribution) or
select Population Polygons, which are separate area definitions that can be edited
separately after importing. When using highly detailed shape files, containing real "building"
descriptions, it is advised to translate this into a grid (because of the huge number of shapes
these files can contain), when using "region based" shapes, it can be useful to import these
as separate polygons.
For grids, the type of file to import needs to be defined: it can be an ESRI grid , ASCII / CSV
table, or created from a Shape file.
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An ESRI grid file can be either an ASCII table (GRD, ASC, CSV) or a proprietary binary FLT
format. An ESRI grid contains a header, describing the dimensions (number of rows,
columns and cell size) and location (position of lower left corner) of the grid, followed by the
grid values themselves. The header also contains a <NoData> value, which is treated as
empty cell, this value is often defined as as -999 or -9999.
An ASCII table assumes the data to be available as separate lines, containing X coordinate,
Y coordinate, Population, possibly separated by spaces or other delimiting characters. The
import screen offer the possibility to define the decimal separator, and a field separator
character, and to skip one or more header lines.
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An important selection for the import of a grid or a shape file involves the choice of the
projection system which is applied for the coordinates within this grid file.
This always has to fit exactly to the definition used within the grid or shapes.
A SHAPE file contains descriptions of polygons with population info about those regions:
When using a shape file as a grid, all shapes will be combined into one grid based definition.
This requires the definition of a grid cell size and selection of fields for daytime / nighttime
population.
After importing the file, the boundary definitions of the grid can be provided by defining lower
left and upper right corner of the grid:
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Population Polygons
A population polygon is a definition of areas with specific population information, they can be
created by drawing a shape on the background map or importing a shapes from a SHAPE
file.
When importing a shape file as polygons, all shapes will be added separately as population
polygons.When defining by means of a shape file, the fields containing relevant info in the
shape tables need to be defined. Select the name of the field containing the description of the
region, and the field that contains the number of people (day/night). Furthermore, the
population value provided can contain a density (value is population per area: select the
corresponding unit by using the right mouse button on the units description) or an absolute
number of people.
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After importing polygons, it is possible to edit the shapes, and potentially define specific areas
as "temporary population", which implies that a specific utilization fraction can be entered.
These Temporary populations are intended for usage in special situations like festivals,
sport events or other situations where non-permanent presence of large amounts of people
can occur during a FRACTION of the time. This is particular relevant if large crowds are
outside and have no protection by houses.
The usage of multiple "temporary" population polygons also implies that that multiple areas
can be affected by an event, leading to the situation of combination of victims. The current
calculation procedure also checks for potential occurrence of MULTIPLE Temporary (even if
they have 100% presence) populations, and accounts for the potential PROBABILITY of
multiple polygons being exposed, with potential COMBINED NUMBER OF VICTIMS.
Note: When using many (say more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the
same event (when they are close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a
single event), this procedure can get time consuming because all potential combinations of
these areas need to be evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas
we need to evaluate: A and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C
exposed, only A, only B , only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every
combination has its own probability of occurrence!
Manual definition:
Zoom in on the area of interest (use mouse wheel for zooming, right mouse drag for moving
the map) and select the edit button. Start pinpointing coordinates on the map, thus defining
the shape (polygon) of the habituated area. Select the edit button when definition is finished
and enter the number of people within this area during day and during night. For standard
usage select is temporary as NO.
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Give the polygon or grid a specific and recognizable name: select the population polygon, and
click on the text population polygon or press <F2> to be able to modify the name of the
branch.
Note: Renaming a tree node can also be used on Calculation Set, Equipment or Scenario!
Select the map view, zoom in to the location where the equipment is placed, hover the mouse
to the exact location and select <Right Mouse> < Set Release point> . The current world
coordinates of the mouse will be entered in the input fields X coordinateand Y-coordinate of
release. Select the Show release point toolbar button to illustrate the location with a
label and cross on the map.
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Transport equipment: Select the Transport equipment branch and press <Right Mouse><Add
equipment> and again rename the Equipment using <F2> or selecting the string and
provide a useful descriptive name.
. Select the map view and zoom in to the area where the route is to be defined. Press the
Edit button in the transport equipment input panel and start pinpointing route points on the
map. Watch all route coordinates being added to the table when selecting route points on the
map.
Finish the route definition by pressing End Edit again. Note that it is still possible to manually
modify the coordinates. The correction factor column can be used for switches on railroad
tracks or locations where a local altered failure frequency needs to be applied.
Combined models support multiple phenomena; if a material is both flammable and toxic, or
direct and delayed iginition can occur, these combined LOC model chains will distinguish
several phenomena.
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The combined models are supplied for Gaseous, Liquid and Two phase materials, and are
available for specific release cases. A release can be either an instantaneous release (called
G1 scenario in the Purple Book), a release within 10 minutes (G2 scenario) or a leak scenario
with a specific hole size (G3 scenario). If the user doesnt know the state of , one can select
the Unified LOC model, which determines the state itself, and provides a choice to evaluate
Damage definition s can be used to enter pre-calculated consequence areas. The damage
models are also dedicated to a specific phenomenon.
Another possibility to add scenario is by using the floating panel: Select an equipment node,
and hover the mouse over the white line on the left border of the RISKCURVES window. A
model selection panel will unfold, illustrating different possibilities by family name:
After the scenario has been added, the definition itself needs to be provided.
A scenario definition consists of two elements: a frequency part and a consequence part.
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The tree visualises this as two nodes of the scenario: the scenario node and the
corresponding (consequence) modelset. For a scenario, main parameters are base
frequency (expressed as chance of occurrence per year), a possible correction factor (which
can be used to represent risk reduction actions), and a daytime fraction. The daytime fraction
can be used to express the situation that an activity only takes place during day or night time.
By default, this fraction should be the average occurrence of daytime situation, according to
the meteorological data definition (e.g. for Netherlands 44% is daytime). If another fraction is
used, this implies that the activity is predominantly shifted into day or night time.
Combined models also require entering a fraction for direct ignition, delayed ignition, BLEVE
and explosion phenomenon. For single phenomenon models, is it assumed that this fraction
is already included in the base frequency. Pressing the < Defaults> button will quickly enter
feasible frequency / probability values here, but is not advised because failure frequencies
tend to be very specific for the typical situation.
This input is defined by a fireball radius (100% lethality inside and outside), a 35 kW/m2 radius
(same lethality as within fireball), and a lethality versus distance response table which defines
unprotected outside lethality.
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This lethality table needs to be entered in a logical ascending distance / descending lethality
order.
Note that the weatherclass combobox can be used to define either ALL (default) or ONE
specific meteorological condition. Start with entering all (Default), and IF specific damage
distances occur (such as expected in case of toxic dispersion phenomenon), select
distinguished weather classes and enter dedicated distances.
Note: If a weather class specific parameter is displayed in a blue color, it means that it is
identical to the default situation. This illustrates the fact that in the background this parameter
is linked to the default model (see EFFECTS for details about model linking)
The number of required input parameters for an EFFECTS model can be changed depending
of the setting of complexity: Simple, Normal or Expert. The three toolbar buttons on top of the
main window will define this state. It is advised to start using Simple mode,
which only requires main parameters (Chemical, amount of material released) to be entered,
and only use Normal or Expert if one wants to divert from standard method. In Expert
mode, all parameters that influence the result of the calculation are shown, providing the
possibility to alter parameters like ambient temperatures or other default value parameters
defined in System Settings.
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If an EFFECTS model has been selected as scenario type, this consequence model will be
calculated for a number of weather conditions, equal to the typical Pasquill classes defines in
the meteo data node. This results in a Set of models in which every model can have specific
input. The weather class dedicated input can be accessed by selecting the appropriate
weather class from the combobox.
Note that the way the scenario node is displayed, reflects the current state:
- an italic presentation means that input has changed and the node needs to be (re)
calculated
- a blue presentation of a specific weather class model implies that the data is linked to
the default weather class model
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Note that consequence (EFFECTS) models will not be recalculated if only a location or
frequency has been changed, a scenario will not be recalculated if only location changed, and
equipment is skipped if nothing has changed etc. Only modified input needs to be redone,
where the calculation of a societal risk, which is a accumulation of several scenario/
equipment contributions, will always be redone.
If for some reason, a user want to force a FULL RECALCULATION of the entire project, the
combination <Alt><Calculate> can be used will will trigger a full recalculation.
During calculation, several progress bars will be presented, to give an idea about the current
progress status. If for some reason, a scenario or equipment is skipped, the calculation will
proceed with the next scenario, and store the result of previous calculation!
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Note that the contents of the Log window reflects the current active node. If a calculation set
is active, all Logs of underlying nodes will be included. To see dedicated results for one
equipment, or even one scenario, this node has to be activated (selected).
The same selection method applies for all other results: specific results from equipments
(Individual risk contours and FN curve) can be evaluated by selecting the equipment, a
scenario has results in terms of individual risk per wind-direction (FX graphs) or even
calculated consequence distances can be evaluated by selecting the required weather class.
Main results of course can be found on Calculation Set level: The complete set of scenarios
and equipments will result in a Individual Risk Contour map, and Societal Risk curves.
The Societal risk of transport scenarios is depicted in transport FN cuvres, applicable for a
section of the route. These graphs are part of the results of individual transport equipments
(per route).
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It is important to realise that a Cumulation set can also be used to ADD different calculation
sets. This way, it is possible to combine calculations for different parts of a site, for example
containing different production processes, and add them all together in one result as a
cumulation. This cumulation result will include Iso Risk contours, Societal risk graphs and SR
maps.
To perform multiple QRA calculations, the most rigorous way would be to copy and paste an
entire calculation set: select the node for the calculation set, press <Ctrl-C> and <Ctrl-V> (or
use edit copy / paste) and a complete calculation set will be added. Again, use descriptive
names for the different calculation sets, e.g. Larger storage capacity or Including new
Urban Development population and modify the contents of the copied calculation set
accordingly.
After calculation (which may take some time again), these results can be compared using the
comparison Set.
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However, in many cases it is possible to add a new or modified scenario to the standard
calculation set and use a Cumulation set to exclude this from being added to the result. Since
all defined Cumulation Sets are also included within a Comparison set, this can be used to
verify the influence of a modified scenario, without the need to copy the entire calculation set.
Realise that copying a full calculation set will result in big projects with many duplicate
scenarios.
To start comparing different calculation sets or cumulation sets, define a Comparison set by
selecting the node and selecting <Right mouse> <Add comparison set> . All calculation sets
and cumulation sets of the project will be visible here. Use the checkboxes to include or
exclude a set. When comparing individual risk contours, only one level of interest will be
shown. This particular level can be modified within the presentation settings.
An analysis point can be added to any calculation or cumulation set. To add an analysis point,
use < Right mouse> < Add analysis point> on the analysis points node, or use < Right
mouse> , < Add analysis point> on top of the map to pinpoint a coordinate from the map.
The results will be visible after a calculation, and presented in a table in the report tab.
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The screen consists of standard elements like a menu bar and toolbar, and a main screen
which is divided in three zones: the project tree, the input panel and the result panel.
The project tree depicts the various components that are required to perform a QRA
calculation. The tree support cut and paste functionality and the object hierarchy illustrates
how LOC equipments are part of a calculation, scenarios take place at an equipment etc.
The input of the active (currently selected) node of the tree is presented in the input panel.
The contents of this panel will change dependent of the type of node that is selected.
The same dependency applies for the result panel, which will always display results (report,
graphs, maps and log) for the currently selected node.
The figure below shows an arbitrary user interface screen that might be visible during any
stage of a calculation and with all possible options enabled. The user interface has been
designed in such a way that it follows the rules of a standard Windows user interface as
close as possible.
Click on the Item letters or screen area to get detailed information about the control item:
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The figure above shows the new Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the software. The arrows
point to the most important controls of the GUI. All areas/controls are indicated with a letter
("A"..."L"). This letter is also used in the paragraphs to identify which part of the GUI is
described.
A. Menu bar
B. Toolbar
C. Project tree
D. Model input panel
E. Results panel tabs
F. Graph display panel
G. (Autohide) Scenario selection panel
H. Command buttons
I. Model input parameters
J. Profile selection box
K. Profile expert button
Furthermore, other screens that can be selected through the Results screen tabs are:
Menu File . .
ReOpen: Shows recent files and allows to select any of these recent files.
Menu Edit
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These menu items provide standard clipboard functionality (Cut, Copy, and Paste) for all
items.
As a clipboard can only hold one type of data at a time, you will have the possibility to copy
either the profile, or the (GIS screen) Contours or the Report as HTML data to the clipboard.
These can be pasted in the normal way in any document.
The copy functionality is particular useful when copying parts of the project tree, such as
complete scenarios or even calculation sets. Copying and pasting can also be used between
two instances (running applications) of RISKCURVES, and allows to use population
definitions, equipments or scenarios from one project to another. It is also possible to copy
paste end models from EFFECTS (version 10) into RISKCURVES 10. This is only feasible for
so-called end models: models that end up with lethality levels. In general: all models that are
available within RISKCURVES consequence calculation core have support for copy / paste
from EFFECTS. (A release model is NOT an end model). This feature may become handy if
one wants to evaluate the behaviour of a specific model within EFFECTS before using it in a
QRA.
Selecting this item will show the options screen, where users can define default settings,
chemical database, default units, environmental, vulnerability and accuracy settings. A
description of this feature is given in options description
Menu View
Allows to enable disable the view of different segments of the toolbar, select the complexity
level or activate graphic or map view features.
Menu Tools
Menu Help
Provides access to the help file, help file table of contents and version release notes.
3.2 Toolbar
The toolbar contains buttons for quick access to common functions and is divided in several
groups dependent upon their functionality.
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New project
Open an existing project
Save a project
Save a project as
These are the standard cut, copy & paste tools. Note that the contents of the clipboard is
determined by the currently active region of the screen. For a profile or contour, the clipboard
contents will be an image, when the active component is a node, complete nodes of the
project tree can be copied and pasted.
Instead of the buttons, the standard windows Ctrl-C (copy) and Ctrl-V (paste) hotkeys are
often more convenient.
These three buttons can be used to switch complexity level of the list of input.
Note that especially for the combined models, the list of input can be extensive. Because
many of the input parameters will always be used in default setting, or are taken form the
environment or system default parameters, the user required input can be simplified to much
less input parameters.
Currently, three levels of complexity are supported: Simple, Normal and Expert mode. The
last mode will always show all input parameters that influence the calculation.
A profile graph can be the societal risk FN curve, but might also present consequence model
results such as a time or distance depending values, as heat radiation versus distance, or
concentration versus time.
Cross hair cursor: provides the possibility to show a crosshair, which will illustrate the
X,Y values of the point under the cursor
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Ruler: activates the ruler, which can be used to measure the distance between two
points
The grid tool shows a grid definition in the map, which can be handy for reading out
positions
Will show the location of equipment locations and analysis points. This is an on/off
toggle button. Any equipment location or analysis point can be illustrated with a dot on
the contour image. Transport routes will also be displayed as a line in the same map
layer.
Show crosshair: Illustrates the coordinate of the location at the cursor, and if a "grid"
layer is active (selected in the legend) , provides information about the value of the location at
the cursor
Geo-reference the background image. Will invoke a screen that can be used to
georeference a pixel based background.
A pixel oriented graph needs to have a definition for the size and positioning of the image
in real world coordinates. For this purpose, RISKCURVES uses the ESRI standard
georeference method which requires a wordfile definition for every image. Currently
supported pixel formats are JPG, TIFF, BMP and PNG files.
Ruler: activates the contour ruler, which is a measuring device to be used for obtaining
absolute sizes of clouds, areas, or distances to objects on a background map.
Transect: provides the possibility to determine the individual risk along a line section. By
defining a transect line (click and drag the cursor to define a track) the transect panel,
which is located below the legend panel, will display the risk along this track.
Lock zoom: this toggle button can be used to force the map view to keep the same field
of view on every component.
Full extent: rescales the map to the full extent (all objects visible)
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The user may switch between different active nodes by simply clicking on the appropriate
branch of the tree. Selecting the node will consequently display its properties, and its results
or reports in the result panel
Node that some nodes are grouping nodes, and need to be expanded before the actual
contents is visible. Stationary equipment is a placeholder for all typical point sources,
whereas transport equipment contains scenario's to be defined as a line source: pipeline,
railroads, highways etc.
The caption of the node may illustrate the current state of the contents: red indicating
incomplete (not all values entered) or providing an error after a calculation, an italic caption
means that this node has not been calculated with the current contents (it may be new, or
changed after the previous calculation).
Renaming nodes
Most nodes can be renamed, and given an appropriate name. Select the node and press
<F2> or select the node and subsequently select the label of the node.
It is strongly suggested to use descriptive names for equipment and scenario's, e.g. "Storage
vessel" and "Instantaneous rupture" scenario.
The sorting of the nodes is always based on alphabetical order. This can be used to give a
logical ordering by adding numbers in the name of the model.
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Any non-grouping node support a copy-paste action. Use Edit ..Copy / Edit.. Paste (or <Ctrl>-
C and <Ctrl>-V) while a node has been selected.This will create a copy of the node,
containing the same input as the original.
It is also possible to copy an entire calculation set containing all scenario's. This can be very
convenient when creating alternative development situations. One calculationset might
contain the current population, whereas a second set includes new urban development
plans.
Furthermore, a new calculationset will be included in a comparison set, allowing to display
results from multiple calculation situations.
The use of the numerical keypad keys + (plus: expand to previous) or - (minus: collapse)
can be used to expand or collapse the tree quickly. The * (star) will expand the full tree.
A calculation set will have results in terms of Individual Risk Contours and Societal Risk
Graphs and Societal Risk Maps.
A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), RISKCURVES can contain multiple Calculations Sets
in one project (and thus file).
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A calculation set always contains the sub nodes Calculation settings, a Meteo data node,
Population (if societal risk calculation is required), stationary equipment and transport
equipment, because these contents together determine the result of a calculation.
A calculation set has a few settings, allowing to either include or exclude the societal risk
calculation, societal risk maps and consequence risk contours.
In standard situations, one usually works with ONE calculation set. However, it is possible to
use multiple (independent) calculation sets within one project (thus a RISKCURVES project
file). Multiple calculation sets can be used to compare different calculations, e.g. one with a
base population and one with modified population due to urban development plans.
Perform societal Risk calculation: Is a Yes/No choice: A Societal Risk Calculation, resulting
in so-called Societal Risk graphs, (FN curves) requires the availability of population
information. If Yes is selected, a population definition needs to be available, either as grid or
as polygons.
Note that an Individual Risk calculation, resulting in a map with Iso Risk Contours, will always
be performed
Create Societal Risk Maps: Is a Yes/No choice, if these calculations are activated, the map
view will also display SR maps
Cumulate transport routes in FN graphs: Is a Yes/No choice, by default No. If the user
selects to cumulate transport routes, the total FN curve will include the results for the
complete route. if cumulation is skipped, transport scenario's will provide Transport FN
graphs, valid for a specific section of the route (by default 1 km).
Adjust the new (red) name "Equipment" and use a good description.
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Use the background map to pinpoint the exact location of the equipment by using <Right
Mouse><Set release point>
For TRANSPORT equipment, a route can be defined by pointing clicking coordinates on the
background map. See positioning equipment
Add a scenario by using <Right mouse> <Add scenario> or use the scenario selection panel
By default, the scenario will be named according to the type of scenario added. The effects
(consequences) part of a scenario is contained within a modelset definition (depicted by an fX
icon). The number of model calculations within a modelset is depending on the
meteorological definition.
Rename the scenario and give a good descriptive name by using <F2> or selecting the node
label.
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Base frequency
The failure frequency for the scenario, expressed per year. Although this parameter has a
default, it is highly recommended to modify this according to the actual failure frequency.
A scenario frequency might deviate from "standardized" situations, due to risk reduction
measures, dedicated situation etc.
By using a correction factor instead of adjusting the base frequency, adjustments can be
made more traceable. This value is used for Stationary Equipment, for transport equipment
the correction factor can be modified per location, leading to a third column in the route
definition.
The base frequency is the total frequency for daytime and nighttime. Users can define
activities to take place only at daytime hours (fraction daytime = 100%), only at nighttime
(fraction = 0%) or any other value. The value entered here will determine which part of the
total frequency is used for daytime situation.
This input box is only available if "frequency equally distributed day/night" has a "No" as input.
The probability that a direct (immediate) ignition event takes place. This parameter is only
relevant for scenario's in which multiple phenomena (poolfire and vapour cloud explosion,
jetfire and vapour cloud explosion) are possible (combined models). In case of damage
definitions, the calculation is restricted to a single event: an explosion damage definition
already assumes that the explosion takes place.
By default a value of 0.8 is used, but this value can be altered, because it is dependent of the
type chemical (flammability) or release rate.
Some guidelines, like the Dutch BEVI, give a table where this value is dependent of the
release rate and flammability classification of the substance.
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The probability that a delayed ignition (flash fire and/or vapour cloud explosion) event takes
place.
Note that the sum of Direct ignition and Delayed ignition does NOT have to be one:
Bleve fraction:
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The probability of a Bleve event taken place. A BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour
Explosion) can only occur with a instantaneous release and may be one of the immediate
ignition events (other immediate ignition event can be a poolfire). This parameter only has
influence in case of multiple phenomena and is only applied in case of instantaneous two
phase releases of flammable materials.
Given the occurrence of a vapour cloud explosion (which is regarded upon as a delayed
ignition), this event may have overpressure effects. This parameter describes which fraction
of those events will have overpressure effects.
Note different from other QRA tools, TNO assumes that all delayed ignitions will have a flash
fire phenomenon, and only a part of these flash fires will ALSO have overpressure effects.
This implies that given a delayed ignition, a flammable cloud drifting away from the source, a
delayed flash fire will always occur, and in a fraction of the situations this includes
overpressure phenomena.
Any analysis point will produce a risk ranking per scenario, based on risk contribution at that
location. Furthermore, the societal risk FN graph of all scenarios affecting that location will be
presented, illustrating the severity of the societal risk at that location. This FN graph per
location is the base for the societal risk area map. The FN contribution graph will illustrate the
societal risk curve for the typical population within this population grid cell of this coordinate.
These location specific FN graphs are used as the bases for the SR contribution map.
Analysis point will be illustrated on the map when the "analysis point" is the active component
in the tree or whenever the "Show equipment locations" toolbar option has been selected.
An analysis point can be defined from any map view illustrating the Iso Risk Contours, such
as calculation set or the cumulation set.
To add an analysis point, use < Right mouse> < Add analysis point> on the analysis points
node, or use < Right mouse> , < Add analysis point> on top of the map to pinpoint a
coordinate from the map.
The results will be visible after a calculation, and presented in a table in the report tab.
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Note that the log panel also contains a LED light warning sign, which is used to illustrate the
status of the log messages
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One of the most important graphs is the Societal Risk Graph which is available for a
Calculation Set or Equipment. Note that a transport equipment contains a slider which can be
used to illustrate the FN curve for a specific section of the route.
Depending on the contents of the graph, the X or Y scale may be adapted to logarithmic view,
when this is commonly used for displaying the typical graph.
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3. Scenario: In expert mode, the FX graph is illustrated here. The FX graph is a "Individual
Risk versus Distance" graph presentation, available in all winddirections. It can be seen as
a polar representation of the risk of this particular scenario. All these polar results together,
positioned on their corresponding location, eventually create the Individual Risk Map
(presented as contours)
4. Modelset: A modelset will contain result for different weather classes (D5 day, F2 night
etc). On a consequence model level, all consequence model results will be shown in this
panel as well.
The graph selection box can be used to browse through all graphs that can be provided by the
model whereas the small button next to the profile selection box enables the possibility to view
"Profile expert graphs"
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Zooming into a graph can be done by selecting a zoom area with your LEFT mouse. To do
so, point and click in the graph, hold the left mouse button and drag the mouse from top left
to right down while holding the left mouse button. The program will show a rectangle. When
you release the left button, the area in the rectangle will be zoomed.
To unzoom the current graph, select an arbitrary zoom area from bottom right to left up
(the opposite way around as you zoom, which is from left to right down).
Alternatively the profile can be zoomed/unzoomed scrolling the mouse wheel the same
way as the contours can be zoomed. The profile is zoomed on the point the mouse cursor is
pointing at that moment.
Moving a graph is achieved by dragging with the RIGHT mouse button. Drag the chart while
clicking the right-mouse button (the cursor will change to a hand), and the current viewing
area can be changed. Note that an <Unzoom> action will undo this modification of the
viewport area and will revert the graph back to the (automatically scaled) graph boundaries.
The Edit choice will invoke the build in graphic editor which provide access to all settings of
the graph, including properties as titles, scales and legend placement, but also contains an
export tab, which enables the possibility to save the graph either as data or any specified file
type graph.
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The edit dialog can also be accessed by doubleclicking on the profile graph.
The Copy choice will put a high resolution copy of the current view on the clipboard.
The Freeze selection will create a "clone" of the current graph which is no longer connected
to the underlying model. This can be convenient if one wants to evaluate or compare diffrent
versions of a calculation.
Axis units
All axis units of the profile graph can be changed by right clicking on the axis itself, just like all
other numerical values.
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The crosshair tool, which can be activated by pressing the in the toolbar, provides a
moving crosshair, which displays the current X and Y values of the mouse cursor.
The ruler option (toolbar button ) will show a ruler in the graph. The boundaries of the
ruler can be moved with the mouse, providing a way to measure the distance between
specific points.
This panel provides a direct access to all available scenario's. Note that adding a scenario is
only possible if an equipment is the active node: a scenario needs to be added to a
location or a route!
Note that the panel is oriented by model family: Combined models, Dispersion models, Fire
models and Damage definitions (no calculation but a predefined damage zone).
Selecting a model here will have the same result as selecting it through the popup menu
under Equipment: Add scenario.
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The buttons perform basic actions on the model input screen. The clear and default buttons
will perform actions on the current selected session and leave other sessions unchanged.
The calculate button acts on the entire project and will recalculate all currently unavailable
results.
This is particularly important when using the "Simple" or "Normal" mode, with a limited
number of input parameters. Note that a consequence model can not run if it does not have
all input parameters entered.
If the user is working in "simple" or "normal mode" (see toolbar) some of the input
parameters MAY be hidden for the user. Before the calculation can be performed, all hidden
empty parameters are filled with their default values.
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If the calculation result in warnings or error, the log screen will automatically open, illustrating
the status of a calculation in color codes and a light.
During a calculation, a progress window will illustrate the progress, and give some feedback
on the current scenario or equipment being calculated.
Note that unchanged scenario's will not be recalculated; their modelset results will remain
unchanged. For a societal risk calculation, the results will need to be translated to total victims
and cumulated towards a total FN graph.
Recalculation of all scenario's can be forced by pressing <Alt> plus the calculate button. This
will force complete recalculation of all effect models, scenario's and equipment contained in
the current project.
It is also possible to force recalculation of a specific node: e.g. a single scenario, a single
equipment or a single calculation set. Select the node and press < Right mouse> : Calculate
from here. Note that if a single scenario is recalculated, but is part of a larger set, the
calculation set results will not be automatically updated.
When defining a modelset, this panel will contain all typical input for the effect consequence
model. Typical changes in the input of a combobox might influence availability of fields:
selecting an evaporating pool will disable the "liquid fraction" input: which will be grayed out.
Furthermore, color highlighting is used to reflect the state of an input field: all linked
parameters (copied from default weatherclass) are depicted with blue description, whereas
non-linked parameters remain black.
Furthermore, if parameters are missing, the label font will be is red, illustrating missing input.
Parameters that are in a light yellow edit box can be recognized as "expert" parameters, and
will only be visible if the <Expert> button is pressed. These parameters will normally be taken
from their corresponding default settings which can be environment settings like
temperatures etc, or expert parameter for all other defaults.
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can only display results of the same type in one graph simultaneously, the program will store
all different types of graphs in a selection box. For example, a BLEVE (EFFECTS) model
might present a heat radiation versus distance diagram as well as a mortality-distance
diagram.
Since only one graph can be visible at any moment, you can find the other graphs here.
When you press the down arrow, all other graphs become visible (see below)
Depending on which graph you choose, the graphical area (see graphical presentations) will
be updated automatically.
Note that some models, like the combined models, have an extensive list of profiles, requiring
to use the scrollbar in the selection box!
Pressing this button will open a new window, with all currently available profiles listed on the
left side. The user can "tick" any graph.
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If profiles with different units are selected, the graph will use both left and right (even bottom/
top) axis to present the different graphs. All features, available for a standard profile graph,
such as (popup menu) Edit, Copy, Freeze and Unit axis setting are also available in the
Profile expert.
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RISKCURVES works more or less in the same way as a common GIS system. It can make
use of several map layers and you can manipulate these layers and the properties of every
layer.
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The sequence in which the map layers are drawn, greatly influences the way that the map
looks. For example if the first layer contains the road network and the second layer is a
bitmap containing the terrain topography, the road network might be invisible because it is
hidden behind the bitmap. This is because vector files (like the road map) are mostly
transparent, while bitmaps are opaque (not transparent). Keep this in mind when you create a
map of several layers. By default, background maps are always the first (back most) layer.
The order of the layers can be manipulated by dragging a layer in the legend panel towards a
different location.
SHP (Shape) file format, these files typically contain vectorised information like lines,
polygons or points, associated with fields (stored in a seperate database), that can be used
as an indicator for the geographic object.
DXF is a cad oriented exchange format. Most CAD programs can export drawings (e.g.
overview of an industrial plant) as DXF file.
Pixel oriented images: JPG, TIF, PNG, BMP files. Pixel oriented files always need a geo
reference file that contains the translation of pixel coordinates to real world coordinates. A
utility to create these files is included in the program.
RISKCURVES will automatically add all layers that contain the results. Note that the layers
can be activated / deactivated by the checkboxes in the legend. Below is a picture that shows
a specific GIS layers on top of a topographic map.
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For a comparison set, multiple contours will be drawn of one particular contour value (e.g. the
10-6 contour) will be drawn. The value for this "multiselect contour" can be modified within
presentation settings.
These specific grids can be saved by selecting the legend, pressing the right mouse button,
and selecting "Export as ESRI grid" from the popup menu.
Tip: by selecting the crosshair cursor tool from the toolbar, while the grid layer is activated
(selected thus blue), the coordinates and risk values under the cursor will be displayed:
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The background map will become very useful when defining equipment: a stationary
equipment requires a coordinate. This can be taken from the map by using the popup menu:
< Right Mouse> < Set release point>. This will automatically copy the current mouse cursor
position to release coordinates. It is strongly advised to zoom in the map in order to position
equipment accurately.
Finalize definition of a route by pressing < End Edit> in the route input panel.
A route also has correction factors, which are used for local adjustment of the failure
frequency, for example on railroad crossings, switches etc.
Apart from the left right mouse drag, the scroll-wheel can also be used to zoom in or out of
an area.
Whenever the contour panel is activated, five toolbar buttons can be used for specific
features:
The grid tool shows a grid definition in the contour, which can be handy for reading out
positions
Will show the location of the model. The equipment location or route can be illustrated
with a dot or line on the background image.
Show crosshair: Illustrates the coordinate of the location at the cursor, and if a "grid"
layer is active (selected in the legend) , provides information about the value of the location at
the cursor.
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Ruler: activates the contour ruler, which is a measuring device to be used for obtaining
absolute sizes of clouds, areas, or distances to objects on a background map.
Popup menu
When you click on the right mouse button in the contour area, a popup menu will be shown:
Set release point: By selecting this option, the coordinate which is currently under the
mouse cursor, will be entered in the "X coordinate/ Y coordinate" equipment input fields.
Add analysis point: By selecting this option, the coordinate which is currently under the
mouse cursor, will be added as an analysis point. This function is only available on calculation
sets and cumulation sets
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Gray scale background: Is only applicable for pixel background images, and will set the
current background in grayscale to improve visibility of the (colored) contours.
Show GridValues: Illustrates the coordinate, and if a Grid layer is active, the value of the cell
under the cursor will be presented:
Show grid overlay: activates the grid definition in the map, which can be handy for reading
out positions
Show Release point: activates the equipment locations layer, showing the locations of
equipment locations and analysis points.
Gray scale background: Is only applicable for pixel background images, and will set the
current background in grayscale to improve visibility of the (colored) contours.
Show Release point= location of model, Show Grid = allows to show a grid at various
distances, Show GridValue: Illustrates the coordinate, and if a Grid layer is active, the value
of the cell under the cursor will be presented
Display unit will change the unit used in the scale bar
Print will allow to print the current map view to a windows installed printer
Export: Allows to Copy the current view to the clipboard, or Export the contents as a
"Shape" (.SHP) file, Google earth file (KML/KMZ), GeoJSON and images .
Draw transect: point and drag a line to display the risk values along this line as a risk
transect.
Edit transect point: provides the possibility to manually adjust coordinates, to obtain exactly
the same values for strt and end point of the transect.
The legend is provided on a floating panel that can be re sized and moved anywhere on the
screen, and can be docked to the right side of the map. If the red "close" cross has been
pressed, the panel can be activated agian by selecting menu "View .. Panels .. Legend"
Specific presentation layers can be activated or de-activated by selecting the checkbox of the
layer in the legend.
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- The ordering of the layers can be altered by dragging the layer legend item to the top or
bottom direction. The topmost layer will be the first layer to be drawn, subsequent other layers
will be projected on top of the preceding layer. For this reason, the background maps should
always be the top layer.
- The bottom part of the legend panel can be used to present a risk transect: a XY graph
presentation of the risk along a definable track on the map.
Double clicking a legend item will display the internal editor for the GIS viewer. This editor can
be used to to change display colors (note that default colors should be set in presentation
settings), transparency of the layers etc.
For contours, the colors, transparency and filling can be changed in the associated popup
menu.
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A more complex property editor of a map layer can be accessed by using the <expert>
button, or double clicking on an layer legend item.
Grid display
For toxic dispersion models, the model will also present a lethality grid that represents lethality
as a function of place. Colors range from red to light green indicating lethality 100% (red) to
1% (light green). Fire model can also present mortality grid and a heat radiation grid
illustrating heat radiation intensity versus location.
To have an indication of the value at the cursor, the map crosshair tool will reveal the value
under the cursor IF the grid layer is the active layer (selected layer=light blue).
Double-clicking on the corresponding legend layer will reveal the color translation editor.
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Surrounding contours
The legend popup also provides the possibility to illustrate "surrounding contours", which is
useful for contours that will be dependent of the wind direction.
Export to file
Depending on the type of layer (contour or grid) various export formats such as KML/KMZ
(Google earth), Shape file, and Geo JSON formats are available. Grids can be exported in
KML/KMZ file, as an ESRI Ascii grid (ASC,GRD), ESRI binary (FLT) format and as an image
format (JPG,TIF, BMP)
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Freeze layer
Because the map is always presenting the contours and grids of the current active selected
model, the comparison set allows to compare any combination of models. To be able to
compare grids, or any other GIS layer permanently, a specific GIS layer can be <frozen>
which implies that it will be a permanent copy, not reacting to switches of the active model or
project.
Simply select < Freeze layer copy> to create a fixed layer. Use the legend popup menu <
Delete layer> to remove this layer from view.
Depending on the active node of the tree, the contents of the report will differ.
For a calculation set or cumulation set, a list of all scenarios, including frequency and
maimum effcet distances, and societal risk ranking report will be presented.
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For a scenario including a consequence calculation, the full list of the EFFECTS model
calculation results is available. Note that for combined model scenarios, this list may be very
long, because a model chain might contain several submodels, such as outflow, evaporation
and toxic/explosive dispersion models, and several typical fire/heat radiation phenomena
models like a Bleve or Poolfire model.
On a modelset level the result will be presented for all different weather conditions defined.
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If the user has selected multiple models i the model navigation list, the report will display
results of selected sessions in different columns. Any differences in input will be marked
bold, allowing to quickly compare calculations and see differences in input.
The report view is a full HTML document, which can easily be copied to your local office
application. Furthermore print and print preview is supported by the internal HTML viewer.
When calculating complex physical effects or consequences, there are numerous reasons
why a calculation can go wrong. Physical conditions might not match those required to run
the selected model, erroneous input might be entered or simply a bug in a model
encountered.
When the program traps an error, this error is send to the model log. When the model log
contains warnings or errors after a calculation the user will get a notification that something
unexpected has happened and the log viewer is opened.
The severity of the error is illustrated by the led light on top of the view:
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A Yellow indicator illustrates a warning, for example a model was used outside it
validity domain, root finding method does not find a solution, or system messages
that a subroutine was doing an illegal action but which could be corrected. It is not an
error but needs user judgment. Warning messages may include hints that no
societal risk has been found.
A Red indicates an error, which can be straightforward messages like "Can not
calculate because of parameters being empty", but it may also report that input
conditions determine a situation for which the model will not run or a scenario that
was skipped.. Basically an error messages implies that no reliable (end)results are
available for the corresponding scenario or consequence model. The message is
often combined with a suggestion of how to solve the problem.
Note: the log window supports sorting on columns, so by sorting on severity, the most
important warnings or errors may be listed on top.
Note: Every message will only show once. Furthermore, if a warning or error is raised, the
program will always switch to the log viewer to force the user to read the messages.
The Time column illustrates the date or time when the error occurred.
The # field presents the number of times that the problem (error or warning) occurred.
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The first error that happened is usually the most important. If errors were trapped in more
than one model calculation, the first/second error of every session is usually the most
important.
The MODEL LOG log is cleared every time you perform another calculation, and is always
associates with ONE model calculation. Since combined model chains consists of several
submodels, warnings may be associated with multiple models.
HGDE: Heavy Gas Dispersion Explosive mass model, (Inst indicated Instantaneous mode,
Pool indicates Poolevaporation mode)
Activation or deactivation can be performed by selecting the menu option "View" "Panels"
"Legend" / "Transect graph"
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4 Advanced features
4.1 Options
In the edit menu a menu-item Options is provided, selection if this item will show the options
screen.
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Note that is is always possible to switch databases for any effects model by using the browse
button to the right of the chemical combobox:
Any effects model contains several input parameters, where the current complexity level
determines the number of parameters displayed. So-called "expert parameters" are more
dedicated parameters, illustrated in a yellow background, that usually don't need adjustment.
The defaults that will be used if these expert parameters have not been explicitly defined, will
be taken from the "expert parameter defaults" that can be adjusted here.
Environment settings
These settings store some typical environmental parameters that are used within the
program, if the user is not working in Expert mode. Furthermore, whenever the <Default>
button is pressed in expert mode; the values provide here will be entered in the
corresponding property fields.
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Note that any RISKCURVES project will contain all parameters used INSIDE the project itself.
Even transferring the project to another system will not change results upon calculation,
WITH EXCEPTION of the chemical database. Note that this file (see chemical database for
the location of this file) needs to be copied to another system to be using identical "User
defined" substances..
All defaults, entered within the options menu, including user defined new meteorological
definitions,(specific meteo station data) will be stored in a user settings file,
<Applicationname>.user.config (which is a XML file) which is located inside the users
application folder. The typical location depends on the windows version, but it can be found
using the %Appdata% query in the Windows Find box or Windows Explorer address field. The
%appdata% folder contains subfolders EFFECTS and RISKCURVES, containing the
dedicated configuration files.
The typical locations for user configuration files can also be found using the "RISKCURVES
diagnostics" tool, which is installed along with RISKCURVES.
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All units can be switched by simply right-clicking the unit label and selecting an alternative
unit. The input screen offers a convenient way to use any unit you prefer for entering the data.
Right click on the unit and select the required unit. Note that chemical dependent parameters
(such as Lower Explosion Limit or LEL value) will perform the required mass/volume
translations automatically:
Apart from this build-in unit conversion option, users can define their own default Unit set. If
one prefers to use British Standard Units or other local (non-SI) units, it is possible to define
this as the standard unit for all models and all axis. After saving of these settings, all screens
will be using the specified units.
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The defaults can be accessed from the options menu, users can redefine or adapt
presentation settings within any project.
Important choices are the typical values for Iso Risk Contours to draw, the Individual Risk
level to use in comparison graphs, and definition of the guide value line.
Coordinate System:
This defines the global presentation system, as used within the project.
In the reporting of scenario's, a maxium distance to # % lethality is added, whereas the map
will also display a surrounding contour for this 33% lethality distances. The exact level for this
lethality can be specified here, making it possible to display and present other relevant lethality
threshold levels, such as 5%, 10% or even 90%.
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RISKCURVES now supports the use of country specific guide value definitions. Note that the
guideline is also presented in the FN graph as a straight line. The slope, and orientation of this
threshold line can be defined by using the parameters:
1. Guide value starting at # victims: the X-axis starting point
2. Guide value starting at frequency: the Y-axis starting point
3. Guide value transport starting at: the Y axis value to use for a transport FN curves
4. Guide value maximum: the X axis end point
5. Guide value slope: the slope of the guide value line (e.g. Netherlands uses slope 2,
implying a risk aversion, the UK uses a slope of 1; no risk aversion)
The section distance to be used for societal risk curves for transport risks can be adjusted.
By default, a 1 km length is applied, although risks can always be accumulated for the entire
route.
The risk ranking report based on societal risk, which is reported at a calculation set level,
always contains a risk ranking which is taken at the "highest level". This can be for any
specific N category, which is also presented. Apart from this, the societal risk risk ranking can
also be presented at any user defined number of victims. One might be interested in the
contribution at 100, or maybe 1000 victims. This secondary risk ranking reporting category
can be defined by this user definable victim category.
Furthermore, the color legend to use for specific grid presentations can be defined here. The
concept is to define minimum and maximum levels, the number of levels and color range to
illustrate a (risk) value into a color.
Note that the translation of societal risk area maps is based on the norm ratio of the societal
risk at a location, which is compared to the guide value. These norm ratio values are colored
according to logarithmic scale: -2 means 100 times lower than the guide value, =2 means
100 time too high, and zero means ratio 1.
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The color palette itself is used for the definition of line colors for contours and graphical
presentations. The first 6 values are used for contour colors, the colors from 7 to 20 are
used for subsequent lines in the graph panel.
The last two colors are used as color for the "show locations" and "show analysis points"
color.
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StandardPipeRoughness
The roughness of a pipe is used in pipe flow pressure drop calculations, default 4.5E-5 m
For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.
The averaging time for toxic concentration is related to aspects of the receiver. For local
irritant chemicals the effects can occur within few seconds (few breathings) and for
systematically irritant chemicals within few minutes (few times pumping of blood through
body).
For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.
The minimum value for the averaging time is 18.75 s [Yellow Book], this compares to the
value for an instantaneous source, which is also used for the calculations of the contour for
the flammability limits and the explosive mass.
Default this one is set to 8.0 %. Although this value is quite unrealistic, it appears to give
answers comparable to the old TNT method.
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Default this one is set to 10. Although this value is quiet unrealistic, in combination with 8%
confined, answers are in the same order of magnitude as the old TNT method.
The multi-energy method is based upon experimental graphs in which the required value
depends upon the distance from the vessel and the type of explosion. 10 different types of
explosion are considered, and have a curve associated to them. Those are:
Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
In a gas cloud explosion, the flashfire may be accompanied by overpressure effects. This
parameter determines the probability that flash AND explosion occur. Default is 0.4
Default mixingheight
This editor shows a table which present the probabilities that wind for a specified stability
class from a wind sector occurs. Different from previous version, the new editor now has
separate Day/Night columns, and values are relative percentages.
The sum of all day and all night definition should be 100% together. If this condition is not
archived, a red Meteo Distribution indication will be shown, and the total day or total night
might turn red, indicating invalid values.
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User can define simple data sets with only two weather classes.
The button < Add Weather Class> will add two (a day and night)columns, titles according to
the selected Pasquill class and wind speed.
Columns can be deleted by pressing < RightMouse> button and selecting <Remove Weather
class> button.
Apart from modifying the cells for the specific wind direction weather class combination, the
total occurring probability for a column can be modified. This will remain the current wind
direction distribution for that weather class untouched and can be convenient when adjusting
probabilities of weather class occurring.
The defaults to be used in a new project can be accessed from the options menu, users can
redefine or adapt vulnerability settings within any project.
See paragraph QRA Definitions Vulnerability parameters for a detailed description on all
values.
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These environment are being used as standard values for model definitions, and can only be
overruled when using the "expert mode" situation.
With respect to the risk calculations, the parameter "Meteorological Daytime Fraction" is
important. This parameter defines the number of hours during 24 hour that are defined as
daytime situation. Note that separate D5 day and D5 Night calculations will be performed for
two situations (as for any stability class occurring during day and nighttime). This parameter
will adjust the typical occurrence of day/night situation according to the countries
meteorological condition.
Apart from this "calculation set" typical parameter, any scenario can be defined as occurring
more or less during daytime.
The defaults to be used in a new project can be accessed from the options menu, users can
redefine or adapt accuracy settings within any calculation set.
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The original chemical property data cannot be modified, and changes to "official" chemical
properties will always be stored in the "USER defined" file. Modifications will be marked with
source names "DIPPR, edited (year)" or "user created (year) in case the user created a full
copy or has been defining mixtures.
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The original database itself is available in a file "ChemicalDatabase.tci" and stored in the
windows installation folder, next to the RISKCURVES program itself.
Apart from this standard file ONE or more USER defined files are required, to be able to
store user defined modifications, copies or user defined mixtures. Note that these user
defined files need to be on a location where the user has write access.
RISKCURVES now allows to use potentially multiple selections for database files to use.
The name and location of the user defined files need to specified by the user, which is
performed in this database manager. The idea behind the possibility to include multiple
chemical databases is that users can share company specific files (e.g. from network
locations), or use additions from colleagues, whereas user modifications will be stored in
user specific files.
When multiple user defined files are provided, the last (bottom) file in this list will act as the
active storage file for any modifications and is illustrated in bold characters. Chemical
records from other files will be available for selection, but any modifications will (by default) be
put in this bold active "user file". When using multiple database locations, the active user file
can be selected using the <up> <down> buttons on the right of the list of available databases.
It is strongly recommended to display a warning if one or databases failed to load, because
this might imply that user modifications or additions (mixtures definitions) cannot be stored.
If a user has been defining "user defined chemicals" in RISKCURVES version 9, these
records can be transferred to the new separated user file. Please refer to the chapter
"Converting version 9 user chemicals" if user defined chemical definitions need to be
translated into version 10.
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Synchronizing User defined chemicals: If users have added "User" chemicals, and
colleagues on other PC's want to use the same definitions, the corresponding
"MyUserDefined.tci" (user defined name) file will need to be copied to a location which is
accessible to the other computer (for instance a network location?)
The viewer / editor can be accessed by selecting the browse button to the right of the
chemcial name, or use the toolbar button. This will open the chemical database dialog,
where you can change the database sources in the top left corner.
Because the user can alter the chemical records, there is a potential danger that a model
might crash or calculates false results due to erroneous data that was entered in any
database. To avoid a situation that a model will not run due to an erroneous database, the
standard database always contains the original data. This database file
("ChemicalDatabase.tci") is write protected, and contains chemicals from sources YAWS,
"DIPPR2010", "DIPPR 2015" and some example mixtures.
DIPPR 2015 appeared to have some properties which were substantially modified as
compared to the 2010 version. In particular the lower flammability limit of some common
substances like methane and propane was modified (because of improved insights at
DIPPR) leading to different results in the explosive mass calculations. The previous version 9
was provided with the 2010 DIPPR version, and for compatibility reasons this data is still
provided within the software.
The availability of a RISKCURVES (non educational) license will provide access to the DIPPR
chemicals. Without an active license, DIPPR chemicals cannot be accessed.
The database editor is configured so that you can not change the YAWS or DIPPR data, but
you can copy values from either database into your own "USER set" or add properties to
official records, which will also be stored in your current (active) user database. Added
properties can be recognized by their orange dot in a property listing.
The following paragraphs will explain how you can create your own database and maintain it,
using the database editor.
Please note: Although licensed users have access to both database sources, calculation
results from YAWS may differ from DIPPR generated results, simply because the chemical
properties may differ. Furthermore, the DIPPR database takes into account the "non ideal gas
behavior" by using a second virial coefficient. Due to this, results from gas outflow models
may differ more than expected based on typical density parameters.
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Example mixtures
In order to be able to work with mixtures, some sample mixtures have been provided. The
chemical composition of these samples have been taken from public sources, and may or
may not be reflecting typical localized compositions. Be aware that many petrochemical
compositions are dependent of the typical climate in the country (summer/winter grade
gasoline) or even drilling source of the crude oil (e.g. "Brent" crude).
TNO does not take responsibility for the correct compositions of these samples, users need
to verify whether their local compositions matches the mixture definitions as provided, and
potentially adjust the composition into a user defined (edited) mixture.
Select a chemical from that database and click 'Ok' to use that chemical.
The database editor performs no validity checks on provided values. If you enter physically
incorrect data, the program will trap many errors in a model calculation that might be very
difficult to trace.
The standard names "user created (year) / DIPPR edited (year)" for sources are
automatically added when creating user defined chemicals, which can be done by copying
originals, or when modifying existing records.
These "source names" (where does this information originate from) can be modified by
selecting the source name for the chemical, potentially adding a source name (e.g. a
company name)
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This Name field will act as a filter on the chemical names, and tree resulting tree will include
all chemicals matching the entered characters.
It is also possible to search on a specific CAS number, by entering the (full and correct)
CAS number in the name field. Corresponding chemicals will only show up on a full match of
the CAS number.
The Show field allows to filter for only toxic, only flammable, or all
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Select the chemical which is required in the tree, and its basic properties will be illustrated in
the right panel.
Selecting a branch opens the chemical, where each chemical has constant, temperature
dependent, and possibly toxic properties. Select the sub-branch you wish to inspect from the
chemical in the chemical tree and properties will be listed or presented graphically.
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Filtering of the listed chemicals is performed by using a filter on Name, use Show to include
exclude toxics or flammables and selecting Sources to include.
NOTE: All user modified chemicals will be listed as "Edited (Year)" or "User Created
(Year)" sources!
Because the program will use the standard YAWS or DIPPR database by default, it will show
non-editable fields for all provided data. After modification of original data, the substance will
be listed in "edited", and if a copy of the record was be made, the new record will be put in
any "USER created" file.
This can conveniently be done by right-clicking on a chemical in the chemical tree, and
selecting "Copy to" allowing to select a specific user file to create the new chemical. This
also allows copying records from one file to another: the administrator can thus create a
company specific file based on additions from various users.
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This will create a full copy of an existing chemical in the USER DATA set. Note that copies of
original DIPPR chemicals stay subject to your DIPPR license. This implies that without a
valid license, these DIPPR copy chemicals will not be accessible. Apart from creating a "full"
copy, it is possible to add properties (e.g. toxic probits, or concentration thresholds), which
means that the official original data is still used, but property values have been extended with
user defined properties. This means that only the new properties values will be stored in the
user file, other properties are still taken form the original database, and the chemical will be
listed in "edited".
Note that the <open ICSC> button will automatically jump to the International Chemical Safety
Card of the current chemical, if the corresponding ICSC number is known. This site will
provide detailed safety information, including commonly used occupational exposure limits
values like IDLH values.
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All temperature-dependent properties are listed under the other chemical substance branch.
The names are self-explanatory. Click on the required parameter (such as "Liquid vapour
pressure") to illustrate the formula's and graphs for the property. The checkboxes in the
'Known Ranges' view control the graphs that are displayed.
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Note: The value for the A probit is dependent of the units used (ppm.min, kg/m3.s or mg/
m3.min). The probit converter tool can be used to to translate values before entering them.
When initially entering values, one should use the default SI unit which is s*kg/m3 .
Note also that the value of B is used to translate the A probit, which implies that conversion
cannot be done without the knowledge of the B probit. This implies that unit conversion
cannot be applied while entering values.
By using the right mouse button on top of the unit box, the unit values can be changed,
illustrating the impact on the a value
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As any temperature dependent property is a formula, the ranges indicate between which
temperatures a function is indicated as "valid". The word "valid" can have two meanings within
this concept.
Second: As explained above, the maximum valid temperature can also be a true physical
limit, like a melting point or a critical temperature. These values were entered in the previous
"General" data entry screen.
Enabled: In the DIPPR database, temperature range overlapping properties have been
disabled. To be able to activate another range, you can toggle this setting by double-clicking
on the <Enabled> field.
Equation
This is the actual equation that is used to calculate the temperature dependent data. You can
change the 'Equation' drop-down list to the desired equation, in the 'Parameters' area to it's
left, you can double click to edit the parameters for the chosen equation.
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With every toxic property, it's possible to store the source, and a comment.
Every chemical has a source and a comment stored with them, editable on the chemical
identification page (select chemical name in the left-hand tree). Existing values can be
changed by double-clicking, new entries can be added with the right-click popup menu.
After adding this substance to a mixture, the user needs to define the amount of the
component in the mixture. This can be based both on Molar fraction AND on mass fraction
(use right mouse button to select either mass or moles). The parts don't have to combine to
100 but the fraction will be corrected to the total number of parts.
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After selecting <Apply> a name for the mixture needs to be provided and the Chemical
mixture will be stored in the current user database. Mixtures are recognizable by their green
icon in the chemical tree list. All calculated property values can be easily read by selecting
the presented mixture properties.
The properties of the mixtures created will be calculated based on mixing rules, where
constant properties (e.g. LFL, burning rate) can be overruled by simply overwriting the
calculated value in the list.
One should keep in mind that these mixing rule DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT so-called
binary interaction coefficients, nor account for chemical reactions or absorption effects, and
are thus not reliable for typical polar mixtures! This particularly means that mixtures like
Ammonia/Water etc. can still hardly be modelled.
Another limitation is the fact that inside the models, we assume a CONSTANT
COMPOSITION. Especially in (pool) evaporation, one should expect the most volatile
components to be the first to evaporate, eventually leading to a time dependent changing
composition of both the evaporated mass and the remaining pool (liquid) . Please note that
RISKCURVES can not deal with a time varying compositions, so the mixture is to be
assumed to have a constant composition, even for gas and liquid phase.
Furthermore, it appeared that usage of chemical mixtures may also lead to MULTIPHASE
mixtures: one component may be solidified (lower that triple point / melting point) whereas
other components are in liquid or even vapour state. Especially because mixtures typically
have a boiling region, instead of ONE boiling point, liquid vapour equilibrium now can be a
temperature range. Typically, liquid/vapour combinations can be handled, but solid/liquid
mixtures will give a warning, and (pool) evaporation will stop if the "ideal mixing based" melting
point is reached. Smaller amount of solids are accepted in outflow and evaporation, but
viscosity and density are not corrected for occurrence of solid particles.
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It also need to be mentioned that the current database equations are based on simple
(quadratic) Equations Of State (EOS): only including compressibility based on second virial
coefficient. This means that calculation in SUPERCRITICAL CONDITIONS will be unreliable,
because density calculations in this region should be based on more complex EOS.
Warning 1: Although real world mixtures (such as gasoline) may include dozens of unique
component substances, many of these components occur only in very low fractions. Although
it is possible to include all these fragments into the mixture definition, these very low fractions
will hardly influence the thermodynamic behavior. Because of this low influence, and because
complex model calculations (such as TPDIS two phase discharge) will include iterations over
temperature dependent chemical properties, dramatically increasing calculation time, it is
advised to limit the number of components to a maximum of 10.
Mixture properties will be calculated using specific mixing rules dependent on the typical
property to be evaluated. By default, "Ideal mixing" is used, however, some properties require
a different approach, as listed below:
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- Explosion limits (LEL and UEL) : Are calculated using "Le Chatelier's"rule
- Viscosity: The liquid and vapour viscosity is calculated using "Kendal-Monroe" relation:
- Boiling points, Critical point temperature, Melting points or Triple point temperature: Highest
or Lowest value:
Because mixtures will have a boiling range, the mixture will start to boil at its lowest boiling
point. Also the first component arriving at its critical point will determine that we don't have a
pure liquid anymore, the first component starting to solidify will create a liquid/solid mixture.
For that reason, a boiling or critical point will be based on the lowest values, and the melting
or triple point are based on highest temperature. Inside pool evaporation, the ideal mixing
based melting point is used to determine to stop liquid evaporation. This is because in
gasoline-like mixtures, it is accepted that some cyclic of parafines may be solid, whereas the
main substance is still a liquid. In these liquid/solid mixture situations, the phase detection
routine give a warning because liquid density and viscosity will be less accurate due to some
components being in a solid state.
Because there is no clear rule on how combine multiple toxic substances (toxics can have
different behavior: Narcotic or Irritating) the toxicity of a mixture will be based on the most
toxiccomponent. The most toxic component is defined as that component having the lowest
LD50 (30 min) concentration. The Probit B and Probit N will simply be taken from this
component, the Probit A and all toxic threshold will be corrected for the fraction of this (most
toxic) material available.
Upon starting this converter, it will ask for the location of the version 9 chemical database file,
containing the user defined chemical definitions.
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After browsing to the required chemical database file, the importer will show the available user
defined chemical records. Simply select all or select specific names and press <Import>.
This will open a Save as dialog. Enter any descriptive file name (tci extension) but make sure
it is on a location with write access .
Upon conversion some feedback will be provided about the import results.
The newly created file needs to be added to the list of user defined chemicals in!
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NOTE!
Depending whether the chosen pressure and temperature fall within legal physical limits, a
result might be visible or not. For example if you choose a temperature above the critical
temperature, you will see no answer for a liquid mass/volume conversion. Thus, in some
cases you might discover that there is no result. In most cases this means that you are trying
to perform a conversion outside the physical limits (e.g. above the critical temperature, no
liquid phase exists, hence no mass of a liquid can be calculated).
Dependent upon the units of concentration and the molecular mass of the chemical that the
probits are to be calculated for, the a value of the probit a will differ. The probit calculator can
convert the value of the toxic probit as calculated for each of the three commonly- used units
for concentration: kg/m3, ppm or mg/m3.
Simply right click on the unit of the probits, and it will display other possible units, and convert
the current displayed value.
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This is quite different from a raster image represented by a Pixel Oriented Layer such as
bitmaps and JPG files. A bitmap is a raster image that is organized and measured by rows
and columns. Each cell has a row number and a column number. If the origin is located in the
upper left corner of the data, that cell would be identified as row 1, column 1.
Pixel based Image layers do not have a coordinate system. This means that the mapping
system assumes the lower left corner of the map as coordinate (0,0) and the upper right
coordinate as (x,y) where x and y are the number of pixels of the bitmap in the x and y
direction.
For Vector Layers and Pixel Layers to be displayed simultaneously, the rows and columns of
the image must be mapped into the x,y plane of a map coordinate system. An image-to-world
transformation that converts the image coordinates to map coordinates must be established.
Some image formats store geo-referencing information in the file header of the image or, in
the case of images that do not contain this geo-referencing information, facilities exist in other
products available from ESRI, for creating a file that contains the necessary transformation
parameters.
The file that contains the transformation parameters is called a world file. The world file
always takes precedence over any header information.
The utility supports various pixel format files: TIF, PNG, JPG, GIF and BMP files. The
corresponding world reference files have the extension TFW, PGW, JGW, GFW and BPW.
If these world reference files already exist, the image extent will already be shown, but a
projection coordinate system should be provided: the defined extent refers to a specific
coordinate system. In this case a message "No coordinate system found, Used default" will
be shown. Information about a projection system may be available IF a <filename>.PRJ file is
also provided. For that reason it is advised to keep these files with same name and different
extensions together.
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When importing pixel based images without geo-reference information, a manual reference is
required. The user has two different options to provide the information to be able to translate
the pixel information which are shown upon importing a background map: using Two Points
or using Length and 1 point
After defining those points, the associated coordinates need to be provided in the fields X/Y of
point A and length.
Note 1: The coordinate units are defined by the selected projection system! These can be
changed to Lat/Long WGS84 degrees, allowing to use GOOGLE earth readouts. Use the
<right mouse> button to change map units
Note 2: It is often very convenient to zoom in on the area were a distance is known by using
the mouse scroll wheel.
If the map boundaries are known, simply click the upper left and lower right border and define
point A and point B. Provide the corresponding boundary values of these dots in the input
boxes.
The other possibility is to define TWO other known coordinates and provide the real world
coordinates in map units or Lat/Long decimal degree values.
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After selecting the <Apply> the < Show coordinates> check box can be used to verify the
system. After pressing the <OK> button, the adjusted reference file will be saved.
Use the <Georeference by length> button to activate the georeferencing. After pinpointing the
first reference point with the mouse (a red point A is shown), continue selecting the two points
for which inter-distance is known. The first point reference can be a typical landmark using an
absolute projection system coordinate system or a plant center which can be referred as to
as 0,0 when using a relative coordinate system.The reference line should be a location on the
map with a known distance. In Google Earth screen dumps, this may be the distance
identification in the lower left corner.
This option assumes that the chart has an isometric X- and Y axis scaling: e.g. 10 pixels on
the X-direction will have the same distance as 10 pixels in the Y direction. Press <Apply> and
<OK> to save the reference file.
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Start defining a transect by selecting the "draw transect" toolbar button or the "draw transect"
entry in the map popup menu. Simply drag on the map to draw a line and after defining the
line, the corresponding transcet graph will be drawn in the right bottom window. Note that the
transect graph can be hidden or shown, use the "View", "Transect graph" menu entry to
activate/deactivate the view.
Since the transect graph is rather small in its default position, this panel can be dragged and
resized as a floating panel. All graphic functionality for graphs is also available for the transect
graph panel.
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NOTE: The exporter will only export "consequence" results: values from the
consequence calculation that is used to calculate risk values.
The "export wizard" is started by activating the File..Export.. Consequences to CSV in the
main menu. This will open a form that allows to specify the typical consequence results to
export.
The first wizard form ill ask to select the typical models for export, one can select ALL
phenomena models, for all defined weather classes, or make any sub-selection from all
available scenario definitions within the current project:
After this first selection, the wizard will perform a can to collect all input and result parameters
in the selected consequence models.
Depending on the number of different consequence models selected, this can be a huge list,
but the user can expand both "INPUT" and "OUTPUT" list to define the specific inputs and
results of their interest.
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If the selected output parameters contain graphs, which are lists of values the next dialog box
will ask to specify the units in which the data is stored.
After specifying these units, a file save dialog will open, asking for a location and name for the
CSV file to store.
This file can now be opened in a spreadsheet and will contain all selected parameters in
dedicated columns for the different weather classes.
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5 Technical backgrounds
A calculation set will have results in terms of Individual Risk Contours and Societal Risk
Graphs and Societal Risk Maps.
A calculation set is a typical input definition for a single QRA calculation: it contains all input
that influencing the result. Since users often want to compare the change in risk due a
modification (of population, scenarios), RISKCURVES can contain multiple Calculations Sets
in one project (and thus file).
A calculation set always contains the sub nodes Calculation settings, a Meteo data node,
Population (if societal risk calculation is required), stationary equipment and transport
equipment, because these contents together determine the result of a calculation.
A calculation set has a few settings, allowing to either include or exclude the societal risk
calculation, societal risk maps and consequence risk contours.
It doesnt have its own parameters, but combines several groups of parameters, to be applied
to all input contained in a calculation set. Typical parameters are Accuracy describing
parameters influencing calculation accuracy and speed, Vulnerability settings describing the
relation between physical phenomena and damage (lethality), and Environment parameters,
describing ambient temperature, humidity, solar radiation etc. for the typical location.
It is also possible to calculate a Consequence Risk, which give the risk of exceeding a
specific consequence level threshold. If this option is activated, additional "consequence risk
threshold levels" need to be set.
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This is shown in the left drawing. Two clouds for a 30 wind direction (=360/12) miss the
important object resulting in risk underestimation. In the right drawing, 15 wind direction (=24
wind directions) were chosen resulting in a hit of the object.
About the same explanation as for FN calculations holds for individual risk calculations. Again,
a hypothetical person could be missed, especially where he stands far away from the cloud
and the cloud tip is relatively small when compared with the sector circumference. In general
when this factor is increased (values up to 20 are useful) the individual risk will decrease as
Riskcurves will calculate more accurately the risk caused by overlap/underlap of a cloud
compared with the sector width. The drawback is more calculation duration. More narrow
clouds have a smaller risk than wide clouds which is obvious as wide clouds can overlap to
adjacent sectors. This methodology takes it all into account at a value of 20.
When calculating individual risk contours along a transport route, contours can become
caterpillar shaped instead of a smooth line. This is caused when the inter-accident distance
used to calculate individual risk is too large. The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that
possible accident points are located 50 meter from each other. When using scenario's with
effect distances lower than 50 mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.
This factor is used to influence the inter-accident distance during societal risk calculations.
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The above example illustrates a road transport. RISKCURVES will generate accident points
and calculate the size of the gas clouds.
In the left situation the accident points are separated too far and therefore the calculation
misses an important object because the clouds can not reach it. In the right in situation, more
accident points are generated and the object is hit.
The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that possible accident points are located 50 meter
from each other. When using scenario's with maximum effect distances much lower than 50
mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.
For toxic materials, this is derived from their toxic probits which are stored in the chemical
database, but for flame contact, heat radiation and overpressure, dedicated damage
translation can be defined..
This parameter defines the heat radiation level that will be associated with total destruction.
Anything above this level will result in 100% lethality
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This value determines the maximum duration of exposure to heat load, as used in
consequence calculations. Default is set to: 20.0 seconds
The protection factor applied for clothing, used for societal risk calculations on heat radiation.
A probit calculation will be applied on heat radiation, leading to a lethality. This lethality is
corrected with this factor to obtain the damage in case of societal (protected) calculations
By default, the vulnerability model (probit function) as described in the Green Book [4] has
been used for the exposure to heat radiation:
with q = the heat radiation level in [W/m 2] and t = the exposure duration in [sec], which is
assumed to be maximum 20 sec (defined by parameter max heat radiation exposure
duration). The probit value is transferred to a fraction of mortality (0..1) afterwards. This
implies a probit A of -36.38, Probit B = 2.56, and probit N = 4/3
Because some countries are accustomed to use other probits, these A, B and N values can
be modified.
The methodology described above is valid for individual and societal risk, but for inside
population a protection of 100% is assumed, as long as the level is lower than the heat
radiation total destruction level.
The probit values are listed within the table itself. From the side and the top of the table, the
percentage of mortality can be read. For example: A probit value of 4.01 (second row)
corresponds with a value of 16% mortality.
% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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70 5.52 5.55 5.58 5.61 5.64 5.67 5.71 5.74 5.77 5.81
80 5.84 5.88 5.92 5.95 5.99 6.04 6.08 6.13 6.18 6.23
90 6.28 6.34 6.41 6.48 6.55 6.64 6.75 6.88 7.05 7.33
99 7.33 7.37 7.41 7.46 7.51 7.58 7.65 7.75 7.88 8.09
1. Using two pressure levels: total destruction and inside (glas) fragments.
This value is used to define the peak pressure level at which inside and outside lethality
is assumed to be 100% (total destruction zone). Default value is 300 mBar (0.3 Bar)
Lethal fraction pressure total destruction zone
Defines the lethality within the total destruction pressure level zone. By default 100% (fraction
1)
All areas with pressure between "total destruction" and "inside damage" levels, will be treated
with this corresponding inside damage lethality level. The lethality fraction will only be applied
in societal risk calculations, on inside population.
The toxic exposure inside can be calculated based on the actual concentration time profile
and ventilation rate. This calculation is invoked by selecting "Yes" in this setting. The
calculation is performed inside the Dispersion Toxic dose models which will also present a
Inside lethality grid (expert parameter).
The inside lethality is strongly influenced by passage time of the cloud, and ventilation ratio.
By default, the indoor toxic calculation uses a ratio of 1/10: lethality inside is one tenth of
lethality outside.
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For long release durations, high exposures, or high ventilation ratios, this may be a very
optimistic assumption: even an outside dose which is much higher than 100% lethality still
has maximum 100% lethality, thus 10% lethality inside. For that reason it is advised to use
Toxic Indoor calculation method
Ventilation ratio
This is the frequency with which the whole air volume of a room gets renewed.
If in a given location the effect duration is lower than the exposure duration (the passage
time of the toxic cloud is around 60s and the user chose an exposure duration of 1800s)
EFFECTS will internally rearrange the exposure duration so there is not a loss of accuracy
in the result of the integration process.
Example
The exposure duration is a powerful tool to model evacuation or sheltering. Say, a release
happens and people can find shelter after 10 minutes. If we assume that people can find
100% shelter inside houses we can model this as follows:
1. Set the start of exposure to zero
2. Set the exposure duration to the time that people can find shelter (600s)
In this case the model starts the exposure at t = zero, which means that people close to
the source of release will suffer from the effects but people further away from the release
will be exposed to lower concentrations because the cloud has not reached them yet. All
these are taken into account by the model.
NOTE 1: Different methods of applying this exposure duration are possible, see "exposure
duration based on" parameter.
NOTE 2: By using the option "perform toxic indoors calculation" the dispersion model can
take into account that people inside houses will still be exposed to (lower) concentrations.
NOTE 3: For heat radiation, a dedicated "heat exposure duration" parameter is used, which
is default 20 seconds, because the human reaction to intensive heat radiation is much
quicker.
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Ambient Temperature
The average yearly temperature or the temperature you want to use for all calculations. In
general, the higher the temperature the larger the effects and consequences. Mostly a value
between 9 and 25 degrees Celsius is used.
Water temperature
The average yearly temperature of the water that you want to use for pool evaporation on
water calculations. In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and
consequences.
The relative humidity influences the atmospheric transmissivity. For the Dutch situation the
normal variation is between 50 - 90%.
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Atmospheric pressure
The outside pressure is used in various dispersion and outflow calculations.
The pool evaporation model uses an overall heat balance for the pool to calculate the
evaporation. This heat balance also includes solar heat radiation.
Users can choose whether to use a fixed value for solar heat radiation, or calculate the actual
value based on day, month, cloud cover and latitude of the location.
The solar heat radiation flux is the actual value for the heat flux as used in pool evaporation
calculations.
Note that values may range from negative (at night: earth radiates towards sky) to 1500
Watts/m 2 depending on the latitude, cloud coverage, and day of the year.
When the actual value has to be calculated, several other input values are required: earth
location latitude value, cloud cover and day/month of the year.
The probability of a risk occurring at a specific location is highly influenced by the probability of
the wind blowing from the accident location towards that location. In order to take this into
account, a meteorological definition has to be supplied. Meteo data consists of the definition of
typical Pasquill stability class with a wind speed (e.g. D5 or F2), the probability of that class
occurring, and the probability for the wind-directions for that class and is applicable for the
region where the scenarios are to be defined. This data is usually supplied by meteorological
station at airports etc. and can be predefined for met-stations at your country.
A new meteo-station definition can be added under menu Edit, Option default meteo
distribution and the browse button:
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All definitions that are provided in Options can be selected in the combobox in the input panel of the Meteo data node:
Once a meteo station location has been entered, the red label will turn to black, illustrating
that acceptable input has been provided.
Note that the provided (Dutch) meteo station definitions all contain 6 weather classes, but it is
also possible to use only two any other number of different Pasquill classes. Using only two
classes imply that calculation time will be reduced since the consequence models need to
perform two calculations.
5.1.7 Population
Population definition node contains the definition of population by means of grids (a matrix
like definition of cells) or polygons (area definition with number of inhabitants).
Population can be added by using the Population Import Wizard, or by manually adding a
polygon and defining an are with population. See defining Population.
The total cumulation of all grids and polygons under the grouping node will be used to create a
total population grid, used within the calculation sets Societal Risk calculation.
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Both day an night grid will use a separate "Inside fraction" determining the fraction of the
people that are inside houses and have a some degree of protection (see vulnerability
settings)
When using "temporary polygons", it is possible to use a dedicated "inside fraction" and
"utilisation fraction" (a presence factor).
Temporary population can be used to include the presence of large crowds (e.g. festivals,
sport events) during a FRACTION of the time. This is particular relevant if large numbers of
people are outside (thus unprotected).
Note: When using many (say more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the
same event (when they are close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a
single event), this procedure can get time consuming because all potential combinations of
these areas need to be evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas
we need to evaluate: A and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C
exposed, only A, only B , only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every
combination has its own probability of occurrence!
5.1.8 Equipment
Equipment: a location or route on which scenarios are being analysed (distinguishing
STATIONARY and TRANSPORT equipment). Note that these nodes can be expanded, they
are placeholders or grouping nodes for a list of coordinates, or routes.
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5.1.9 Scenario
Scenario: a Loss Of Containment scenario occurring at an equipment (either a stationary
location or a transport route), which has a specific failure frequency, and contains
consequence definitions: a description of the scenario in terms of substance, quantities,
release situation or resulting damage.
Once stationary equipment locations or transport equipment routes have been defined, typical
LOC (Loss Of Containment) scenarios belonging to the equipment can be added. Select the
equipment and press <Right Mouse><Add scenario> and select the type of scenario to be
added from the branch of models:
Combined models support multiple phenomena; if a material is both flammable and toxic, or
direct and delayed iginition can occur, these combined LOC model chains will distinguish
several phenomena.
The combined models are supplied for Gaseous, Liquid and Two phase materials, and are
available for specific release cases. A release can be either an instantaneous release (called
G1 scenario in the Purple Book), a release within 10 minutes (G2 scenario) or a leak scenario
with a specific hole size (G3 scenario). If the user doesnt know the state of , one can select
the Unified LOC model, which determines the state itself, and provides a choice to evaluate
Damage definition s can be used to enter pre-calculated consequence areas. The damage
models are also dedicated to a specific phenomenon.
Another possibility to add scenario is by using the floating panel: Select an equipment node,
and hover the mouse over the white line on the left border of the RISKCURVES window. A
model selection panel will unfold, illustrating different possibilities by family name:
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After the scenario has been added, the definition itself needs to be provided.
A scenario definition consists of two elements: a frequency part and a consequence part.
The tree visualises this as two nodes of the scenario: the scenario node and the
corresponding (consequence) modelset. For a scenario, main parameters are base
frequency (expressed as chance of occurrence per year), a possible correction factor (which
can be used to represent risk reduction actions), and a daytime fraction. The daytime fraction
can be used to express the situation that an activity only takes place during day or night time.
By default, this fraction should be the average occurrence of daytime situation, according to
the meteorological data definition (e.g. for Netherlands 44% is daytime). If another fraction is
used, this implies that the activity is predominantly shifted into day or night time.
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Combined models also require entering a fraction for direct ignition, delayed ignition, BLEVE
and explosion phenomenon. For single phenomenon models, is it assumed that this fraction
is already included in the base frequency. Pressing the < Defaults> button will quickly enter
feasible frequency / probability values here, but is not advised because failure frequencies
tend to be very specific for the typical situation.
5.1.10 Modelset
A Modelset is the placeholder for the actual consequence definition. It contains either a
damage definition or consequence calculation, which is defined for a number meteorological
conditions
It is possible to define altered input values for specific weather class conditions by selecting
the weatherclass from the combobox.
Very often one is not interested in the fully accumulated results of all scenarios, but want to
know the contribution of a specific subset of scenario, e.g. only flammable scenarios or
accumulation of specific vessels or equipments. Such a subset can be made using a
Cumulation Set. Define a new set by selecting the Cumulation sets node and selecting
<Right Mouse> <Add cumulation set>. Give it a descriptive name (e.g. Only Flammables)
and use the checkboxes to select which equipments or separate scenarios should be
incorporated within this accumulation. After pressing the <Calculate> button, which only
takes a few seconds, the subset results will be presented.
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It is important to realise that a Cumulation set can also be used to ADD different calculation
sets. This way, it is possible to combine calculations for different parts of a site, for example
containing different production processes, and add them all together in one result as a
cumulation. This cumulation result will include Iso Risk contours, Societal risk graphs and SR
maps.
RISKCURVES has the possibility to perform multiple QRA calculations, and compare results.
This can be used to validate the influence of a changing population, or generally: a changed
risk situation.
To perform multiple QRA calculations, the most rigorous way would be to copy and paste an
entire calculation set: select the node for the calculation set, press <Ctrl-C> and <Ctrl-V> (or
use edit copy / paste) and a complete calculation set will be added. Again, use descriptive
names for the different calculation sets, e.g. Larger storage capacity or Including new
Urban Development population and modify the contents of the copied calculation set
accordingly.
After calculation (which may take some time again), these results can be compared using the
comparison Set.
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However, in many cases it is possible to add a new or modified scenario to the standard
calculation set and use a Cumulation set to exclude this from being added to the result. Since
all defined Cumulation Sets are also included within a Comparison set, this can be used to
verify the influence of a modified scenario, without the need to copy the entire calculation set.
Realise that copying a full calculation set will result in big projects with many duplicate
scenarios.
To start comparing different calculation sets or cumulation sets, define a Comparison set by
selecting the node and selecting <Right mouse> <Add comparison set> . All calculation sets
and cumulation sets of the project will be visible here. Use the checkboxes to include or
exclude a set. When comparing individual risk contours, only one level of interest will be
shown. This particular level can be modified within the presentation settings.
Every point will provide an Individual Risk Ranking report, and when societal risk maps are
activated, it will also present the corresponding societal risk curve or societal risk contribution
for that location.
Analysis point can be used to report risk contribution at specific user definable locations.
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Any analysis point will produce a risk ranking per scenario, based on risk contribution at that
location. Furthermore, the societal risk FN graph of all scenarios affecting that location will be
presented, illustrating the severity of the societal risk at that location. This FN graph per
location is the base for the societal risk area map. The FN contribution graph will illustrate the
societal risk curve for the typical population within this population grid cell of this coordinate.
These location specific FN graphs are used as the bases for the SR contribution map.
Analysis point will be illustrated on the map when the "analysis point" is the active component
in the tree or whenever the "Show equipment locations" toolbar option has been selected.
An analysis point can be defined from any map view illustrating the Iso Risk Contours, such
as calculation set or the cumulation set.
To add an analysis point, use < Right mouse> < Add analysis point> on the analysis points
node, or use < Right mouse> , < Add analysis point> on top of the map to pinpoint a
coordinate from the map.
The results will be visible after a calculation, and presented in a table in the report tab.
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Where individual risk contours illustrate the chance of lethality on a location, consequence
level contours illustrate the chance that a specific pressure level, heat radiation level or toxic
threshold is exceeded. This particular information is used in facility siting (positioning of
buildings and constructions showing the chance of them being exposed to a specific effect
level) and potential injury risk evaluation.
The specific levels of interest to be shown in the contours must be defined in Consequence
risk settings where heat load and toxic load may be also be presented in dose levels.
Note that changing a threshold levels requires an adapted risk calculation so recalculation is
required upon change. (which is not the case for a change in "presentation settings") .
Because the consequence Risk contours are specific for a defined threshold level, the
contour legend TITLE describes the levels shown for the different phenomenon.
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Damage definitions always include ONE specific phenomenon, such as (circular) Bleve and
local cloud fire, explosion, jet- and poolfire, or toxic damage zones. depending on the typical
definition, the number of parameters might differ.
Some definitions use values that are entered in a table. Enter the values (distance is row
ascending, lethal fraction should be row descending) and press < down> to go to the next
row. Is is also possible to copy/paste these values from a spreadsheet.
While entering values in a table, a implicit test is being performed on the consistency of the
input, the damage dimensions should be row ascending and lethality row descending. If this
requirement is not fulfilled, the definition will have a RED label.
- lethality unprotected outside: within this table, users can define lethality versus distance.
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- radius of the flashfire; within this radius, 100% lethality (can be overridden with vulnerability
setting lethal fraction flashfire) is assumed.
- Chance flash AND explosion: for an explosion, both an overpressure and flash fire
phenomenon can occur. Provided the situation that there is an ignition, (and thus a flashfire),
there is a probability of an overpressure effect happening. This probability is defined is this
parameter "Chance Flash AND Explosion" .
Note that this assumption might differ from other QRA models; it is assumed that
overpressure cannot occur without a flash fire, so we have either a flashfire or a flashfire with
overpressure effects (and not either overpressure or fire damage) .
-Length and weight of flashfire define the size of the damage zone of the flame envelope,
described as an ellipse.
-The offset of the flashfire can be used to define the distance from release location where the
ignition takes place. The offset defines the distance to the boundary of the flame envelope.
- The offset of the overpressure effects can be used to change the center location of the
overpressure. By default, the overpressure centre is assumed to be the centre of the cloud.
This overpressure offset will move the explosion centre, a positive value will move the
overpressure centre away from the release centre.
- Readius pressure level total destruction and Inside damage. Overpressure damage zones
are being defined as two circles: one (high pressure) zone which will have total destruction
(typically 0.3 bar overpressure level) and on giving only inside damage due to glass
fragmentation. The associated vulnerability is derived from vulnerability settings lethal fraction
total destruction pressure level and lethal fraction inside pressure level
- Flame Length, width and offset: defines the elliptical shape of the flame itself. The offset is
an offset of the tail of the flame, relative to the release location. Within the flame envelope the
lethality as defined within vulnerability setting lethal fraction in flame contour is used.
- Lethality contour levels: these length, width and offset values are used to define elliptical
shaped damage zones.
These contour levels are used to describe concentric ellipses with a specific lethality level
describing a lethality footprint. Note that an interpolation is used to translate a footprint
towards such a footprint. Furthermore, a negative offset can be used for POOL fires,
whereas a JET fire can have a positive offset: it can have a lift off thus moved away from the
release point.
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- Lethality contour levels for OUTSIDE and INSIDE: these length, width and offset values are
used to define elliptical shaped damage zones.
The input parameters provided here offer the possibility to define for which level these
contours will be drawn. Note that the specific levels will also be added to the legend
description, because a contour for 20 kPa overpressure will be different from the 10 kPa
contour!
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For heat radiation and toxic consequence, it is also possible to use Dose based levels.
For heat dose, the unit conversion towards non-SI units will ALWAYS be based on a probit N
of 4/3, so it is advised to use the SI unit [s*(W/m^2)^N], the internal calculation utilizesa heat
dose calculation based on vulnerability defined probit N . For a toxic load, a specific Chemical
needs to be selected, because the dose calculation is dependent of the chemical probit N!.
Future version may include choices for AEGL or ERPG based chemical independent levels, if
those values have been provided in the database.
Threshold overpressure
This is the overpressure value (in mBar) for which we want to calculate the distance from
the center mass position where it is reached (output value). It is also the threshold value to
be used when calculating the output contour plot of all the positions where this
overpressure is reached.
When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.
For a heat consequence risk, it can be chosen to use either a Heat radiation intensity level
(kW/m2 unit) or a heat dose unit (kW/m2^1.33*time)
When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.
For a toxicity risk, it can be chosen to use either a concentration level (kg/m3, ppm, vol%, mg/
m3 ect) or a toxic dose unit (consentration^n*time) . Note that when using a dose, the
chemcial must be selected because the n probit will be fixed.
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Threshold concentration
Concentration value the program will use (if "User defined" was selected in "Predefined
concentration" input box) to generate the concentration contour plot.
In other words, this is the value of the concentration to be displayed in the contour plot.
Apart from a contour "at time T" (concentration model) the outer contour of the specified
threshold can be displayed, illustrating how far a specific threshold can reach. This
threshold will default be LFL in flammable cloud models, but can be user defined and
includes choices like IDLH, but also ERPG or AEGL concentrations. The available choices
will be read from the chemical database. If the values are not provided, the user can
manually ADD a concentration threshold to the substance. (See chemical database).
A word of warning is required here when using these threshold for toxic materials, because
although AEGL and ERPG are concentration thresholds, they are associated to a specific
exposure duration!
For instantaneous and short duration semi-continuous releases, the maximum distance to
concentrations may be very large, but has no meaning if exposure duration is not taken into
account.
In some countries the Individual risk is being referred as "Locational Risk" indicating the the
value is valid for one specific location or coordinate
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The Individual Risk can also be presented in a so-called FX curve, which presents the fraction
lethal versus distance from the release point, for different wind-directions.
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Risk contours are available on the level of a calculation set, cumulation sets, comparison sets
and individual equipments.
A Risk transect can be provide for a specific line track. Such a transect will provide the risk as
a function of the place along this track.
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A FN curve appears to be not very easy to understand or explain. The curve is the result of
spatially distributed risk sources that may influence a geographically distributed population
distribution, whereas the result only present a curve. Questions that often raise are: Do we
have a problem and Where is this problem or What is causing this problem. To be able
to answer these kind of questions, a Societal Risk Map was developed and these
presentations are now available within RISKCURVES.
5.1.22 SR Maps
SR (Societal Risk) Maps is basically a geographical "Area Specific Societal Risk"
presentation of a societal risk, being a two dimensional curve.
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As a result of the demand for a visualization of the societal risk, a new type of presentation
was developed in 2007. The question was raised when a societal risk calculation is fed with
geographical based information on population, and geographical based scenario locations,
why can we not see a geographical distribution of the societal risk.
Such a presentation would be very convenient for emergency response (were are the people
who are threatened by accident) or urban planning activities (how much space left for
population without exceeding societal risk limits: the guide value)
To provide answers to both question two types of graphs were developed: the Societal Risk
Area Map and the Societal Risk Contribution map.
The Societal Risk Area map gives an indication of which areas are affected and
the height of the risk
whereas
The Societal risk Contribution Map gives an indication which cells contribute
to the societal risk
The bases for the presentation is that every grid cell from the population grid has its own FN
curve. In the case of the Contribution map, this curve relates to the victims within this
population cell. The higher the risk of this cell (expressed as the expected value of the curve)
the more red the color will be.
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For the contribution map, the expected value is used to translate the two dimensional FN
graph into a color. The type of coloring can be adjusted, it appears that using a 6 color levels
(use legend ) provides the best contrast, but other coloring might improve the visualization.
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This way the curve represents the full societal risk of scenario's for the area. Note that this
area bounded FN curve will never exceed the overall FN curve for all cells.
For the societal Risk Maps it is important to understand that the risk is determined from the
receivers point of view (instead of from source).
Furthermore, because of the nature of the method, cumulating of various risk sources is
possible: transport & stationary installations, small & large scenarios
The idea behind this new type of visualisation is that this provides a supplementary view of
what is happening, and the maps facilitate considering societal risk in early stage of planning
process:
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- the SR Contribution map shows which areas contribute most (emergency response)
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Release rate: discharge from a vessel or a pipe of gas, liquid or pressurized liquefied gas:
vapour, liquid, two-phase and spray release
Pool evaporation: from land or water surfaces of a boiling or a non-boiling liquid
Atmospheric dispersion: neutral gas, heavy gas and turbulent free jet
Vapour cloud explosion: the TNO multi-energy method or TNT model
Heat radiation from fires: BLEVE, poolfire, or jet fire.
the calculation core of RISKCURVES contains consequence models from EFFECTS, which
allows the possibility of linking models. By transferring the output of a previous model to the
input of a subsequent model it is possible to reduce manual data transfer and to assess the
physical effects of complete release scenarios.
Note that the models can also be selected in the scenario selection panel on the left of the
screen:
Typical predefined chains of models "Combined models" have been defined, allowing to use a
chain of models that perform calculations of all possible phenomena's that can occur for a
specific chemical and LOC scenario.
For every consequence model, a Yellow Book reference is given for the complete description
of the model. Within this manual the features of the models are described shortly. In a
separate last section the input and output model parameters are explained.
The detailed description of the various models, including incorporated formula's and relations,
can be found in specific chapters of the Yellow Book:
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Chapter 2: Outflow and Spray release, separated into Gas release, Liquefied gas releases
and liquid releases
Chapter 3: Pool evaporation
Chapter 4: Atmospheric (vapour cloud) dispersion
Chapter 5: Vapour cloud explosion
Chapter 6: Heat flux from fires
In the paragraphs below the various effect models for each group of models will be described,
including information about:
The physical effects occurring upon a release of hazardous material are calculated with the
integrated TNO EFFECTS models, which are based on the models described in the Yellow
Book [3]. The EFFECTS modules have been incorporated in RISKCURVES.
The (internal) EFFECTS consequence model will check whether a suitable release model is
selected based on physical state of the chemical and the release conditions like temperature,
pressure, location of the hole and the calculated height of the expanded liquid in a vessel. An
error message will appear if an incorrect model is selected, indicating the physical state of the
chemical under the specific release conditions.
Distinction is made between a gas release from a vessel or a (short) pipe connected to a
vessel, and a (non-stationary) release from a long pipeline, not (necessarily) connected to a
vessel.
The "gas release 10 minutes" model will search for a corresponding hole size for a 10
minutes scenario: Which size of the hole is required to get an representative rate which
equals the flow required for the scenario in which the full inventory is released in 10 minutes
Reference
The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], sections 2.5.2.1 to 2.5.2.4.
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The model is suitable for the following situation: Hole in a vessel or in pipe connected to a
vessel containing (compressed) gas only. The hole in the pipe may either be a small leak or a
full bore rupture.
The initial release rate mainly depends on the leak size, the discharge coefficient, the initial
pressure inside the vessel and the length of the pipe (in case of a release from a pipe).
Because gas flows out of the vessel, and assuming no gas is being supplied, the pressure in
the vessel will drop and therefore the release rate decreases in time. The rate of decrease
mainly depends on the vessel volume. The expansion of the gas, because the pressure drops
from the pressure of the releasing gas to ambient, is taken into account. The model assumes
adiabatic outflow.
Releases from a hole in a pipe connected to a vessel are in principal not different from the
releases from a hole in the vessel itself, with the exception of the friction resistances of the
flow through the pipeline. For this resistance the Fanning friction factor is used, which
depends on the length, the diameter and the internal roughness of the pipe.
Reference
The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.2.5. and is also called the
"Wilson model"
The model is suitable for the following situation: Total rupture of a long gas pipeline, not
(necessarily) connected to a vessel. Distinction is made between outflow from a full-bore
rupture and through a small hole in the pipeline.
The initial release rate mainly depends on the pipe diameter (= leak size) or hole size, the
friction of the flow inside the pipeline depending on the wall roughness and the initial pressure
inside the pipeline. Because of the release the pressure inside the pipeline will drop in the
region of the leak at first. The pressure drop travels along the length of the pipeline, with a
velocity equal to the sound velocity. This causes the gas release to become non-stationary
until the pressure drop reaches the end of the pipeline. This is the point at which the model
stops the calculation. The ongoing release can be assumed to be stationary and continuous
until the pipeline is empty.
Note that model assumes a single sided outflow at the end of a pipe with the provided
length. The model is often linked to the "Turbulent Free Jet" model, which needs consistent
input with respect to flowrate, pressure and corresponding diameter.
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Although the model includes an output value "model valid until time" the determining outflow
rate ("representative rate") is usually occurring within this time.
The representative duration is calculated as the time needed to empty the pipe at this rate,
and this duration is allowed to be larger than "model valid until time": this is the estimated
duration of the outflow, WHEN IT SHOULD EMPTY AT THE REPRESENTATIVE RATE. In
reality the outflow duration will be much longer, because is starts at a high rate, but this rate
rapidly decreases to very low values.
For a pressurized liquefied gas the following differentiation in type of release is made,
depending on the location of the hole related to the liquid level in the vessel.
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Spray release
This model calculates the rainout and droplet (aerosol) formation of a two phase continues
release.
Because of the pressure drop inside the pipeline connected to the vessel vapour will be
formed inside the pipeline. The resulting release will be a two-phase release; both liquid and
vapour releasing. In the case that the pipeline is very short (hole in vessel) only liquid will
release.
For pressurized liquefied gases the models to calculate the flash evaporation and the
evaporation due to the mixing with air immediate after the release (e.g. spray release) are part
of the release rate models.
Reference
The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a pressurized liquefied gas
with a hole in the vessel above liquid level in the vapour phase, but below the expanded boiling
liquid level. In the vessel a vapour-liquid equilibrium holds, with a pressure equal to the vapour
pressure at given temperature.
Because of the release of vapour the liquid starts to boil and the expanded boiling liquid may
reach the location of the hole. In that case liquid drops will be carried along with the releasing
vapour. The release rate is considerably increased by this champagne effect. The expanded
boiling level is determined by the hole size, release conditions (pressure) and the properties
of the chemical.
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Reference
The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a pressurized liquefied gas
with a hole in the vessel or in a pipe connected to a vessel above liquid level in the vapour
phase and also above the expanded boiling liquid level. In the vessel a vapour-liquid
equilibrium holds, with a pressure equal to the saturated vapour pressure at a given
temperature. The model is based on the phenomenon of adiabatic vapour release.
The initial release rate mainly depends on the leak size, the discharge coefficient and the
initial pressure inside the vessel. Because vapour releases, the pressure in the vessel will
drop, causing the liquid to start to boil off. Because of the boiling the temperature of the liquid
in the vessel will decrease and so the vapour pressure decreases. Therefore the vapour
release rate decreases in time.
Releases from a hole in a pipeline connected to a vessel are in principal not different from the
releases from a hole in the vessel itself, with the exception of the friction of the flow through
the pipeline. This friction depends on the length, the diameter and the internal roughness of
the pipe.
In an equilibrium situation the remaining liquid cools down to its boiling point at atmospheric
pressure. The expansion of the vapour, because the pressure drops from the pressure of the
releasing vapour to ambient, is taken into account.
Reference
The model used is the 2-phase flow model TPDIS developed by the Finnish Meteorological
Institute [Kukkonen]. The model is described in the Yellow Book [1997], section 2.5.3.5.
The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a pressurized liquefied gas
with a hole in the vessel or a hole in a pipe connected to a vessel below liquid level in the
liquid phase. In the vessel a vapour-liquid equilibrium holds, with a pressure equal to the
vapour pressure at given temperature.
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This 2-phase flow model assumes that for a length of the pipeline connected to the vessel
smaller than 0.1 m (and also for a hole in vessel) only liquid release results; no vapour is
formed before the release.
The initial liquid release mainly depends on the leak size and the pressure in the vessel.
Because of the liquid release the liquid level decreases, by which the vapour phase
increases. Therefore more vapour will be formed by boiling of the liquid, by which the
temperature and hence pressure in the vessel decreases. Because of this phenomena and of
the decreasing of the liquid height in the vessel the liquid release rate will decrease somewhat
in time.
In case of a leak in a pipeline containing a pressurized liquefied gas a pressure drop inside
the pipeline may occur. This occurs mainly for a large leak (about equal to the pipe diameter)
and for a pipe length larger than about 0.1 m. As a result of the pressure drop inside the
pipeline, vapour will already be formed inside the pipeline and the resulting release is 2-phase,
both liquid and vapour. The TPDIS model will check for itself whether the release will be 2-
phase or only liquid.
Reference
The model is suitable for the following situation: evaporation of a release of pressurized
liquefied gas from a vessel or a pipe with a boiling point below ambient temperature;
(pressurized) liquefied gas release or champagne release.
The evaporation of a released pressurized liquefied gas will be determined by the following
phenomena:
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Rain out and air entrainment. The release and the flash-off will generally be so violent
that the liquid in the jet will be broken into drops and the jet will mix with air. The liquid drops
will fall onto the ground (rain out). Due to the air entrainment, part of the liquid drops will
evaporate during falling. Because of the withdrawal of the heat necessary for this evaporation
the temperature of the air-vapour mixture will decrease to below the boiling temperature of the
chemical. The spray release model calculates the amount of the liquid that will rain out, which
forms a pool on the subsurface.
source dimensions
source dimensions
REMARK: The pool evaporation model is suitable for instantaneous releases, therefore
this model has to be used with care in the link with the spray release model. A solution will be
the following:
From experiments it is known that in most cases all the liquid drops in a spray release will be
evaporated by the mixing with air. This means no rain out of liquid. This total evaporation of
the spray can be calculated by adjusting the source exit height to higher values. The ongoing
dispersion of this total evaporated spray release can be directly calculated with the suitable
dispersion model (see above). Within the dispersion model the height of the source has to be
adjusted to the actual value.
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Reference
The model based on AMINAL- Belgium, "Nieuwe richtlijn voor het berekenen van flash en
spray" doc.97/001, which is original source of table 4.8 of Purple Book CPR 18E.
The model is suitable for the following situation: evaporation of an instantaneous release of
pressurized liquefied gas. Instantaneous release means that the entire contents of the vessel
or system are released in a very short time.
Because the model uses the AMINAL approximation to calculate the total mass in the cloud,
this total "airborne mass" (mass remaining in air: not rained out) is partly vapour (the
adiabatic flash amount) and partly liquid droplets.
When using a dispersion model based on the calculated total mass, and there is liquid in the
cloud, it is suggested to use a "Dense dispersion model".
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REMARK: The total mass evaporated calculated with the model for pool evaporation
from land of a boiling liquid is considered as an instantaneous source and can be added to
the mass of vapour evolved due to the flashing liquid instantaneous release. This total
evaporated amount (flash, mixing with air, boiling pool) can be linked to the total mass
released in the dispersion model (neutral and heavy gas) for an instantaneous source.
The calculated footprint of the local cloud fire is based on the shape of a half sphere, where
the material is mixed to Upper Explosion Limit. For non flammable materials, expansion of the
full airborne amount (including liquid droplets) to atmospheric vapour is considered.
Note that this half sphere (mixed with air and/or expanded to pure vapour) is not the typical
situation that should be used as input for dispersion. For that reason, the calculated density of
the airborn mass gives an impression on whether to use dense gas dispersion or neutral gas
dispersion (for 2 phase mixtures usually much heavier than air: densegas)
The Morrow model (non stationary outflow from long pipeline) can be used to calculate the
behaviour of expanding pressurized liquid in a pipeline after a rupture. Blocking of the pipeline
is assumed, and the release is based on the contents of the pipeline itself.
The model is valid until the distance to the interface (traveling pressure wave) is larger then
the length of the pipeline. The time that is need for these model calculations is shown in the
output box Model valid until time. After this the calculations continues with the predicted
mass flow rate of the last time step until all mass is removed.
Note that as of version 8.1, the model assumes a One sided outflow at the end of a pipe
with the provided length, just like the similar Wilson model for gas pipelines. This is changed
because the model is often linked to "spray release" which needs a consistent input with
respect to flowrate, pressure and diameter. If a two sided outflow is to be evaluated, two
separate pipelines need to be modeled.
Although the model includes an output value "model valid until time" the determining outflow
rate ("representative rate") is usually occurring within this time.
The (extrapolated) outflow duration is also calculated, but this is only an estimation because it
is larger than "model valid until time".
It is not advised to use values from the graphs at time t higher than "model valid until time".
Reference
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The model is suitable for the following situation: Vessel containing a liquid with a hole in the
vessel or a hole in a pipe connected to a vessel below liquid level in the liquid phase. For this
model a liquid may be:
a pressurized liquefied gas at a pressure higher than the vapour pressure at the
storage temperature.
For this model it is assumed that the pressure above the liquid level inside the vessel remains
constant.
The release rate is calculated using the Bernoulli equation. The release rate mainly depends
on the leak size and by the pressure above the liquid plus the hydrostatic pressure of the
column of liquid (from height of leak to filling height). Because of the release of liquid the
hydrostatic pressure of the liquid column will decrease and so the release rate decreases in
time. In total the amount of liquid between the height of the leak and the initial filling height will
be released.
Most times the releasing liquid will form a pool on the ground from which evaporation takes
place. For this a suitable pool evaporation model must be used.
Releases from a hole in a pipeline connected to a vessel are in principal not different from the
releases from a hole in the vessel itself, with the exception of the friction of the flow through
the pipeline. This friction depends on the length, the diameter and the internal roughness of
the pipe.
Keep in mind that this model is valid for a pipeline connected to a vessel without a pump
installed in this system. In the event that a pump is present upstream of the leak the release
rate will be maximized by the maximum rate of the pump. Furthermore in this case it has to
be identified whether the pump will still be running or will trip.
Link to pool evaporation model for boiling liquids, relevant for releases of gases cooled to
liquid at boiling point:
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The evaporation model can either work with instantaneous and continuous supply of liquid,
and will determine itself wether it is boiling or non-boiling liquid.
Furthermore the type underground (land or water) and spreading conditions (bunds) will have
to be provided by the user.
Each choice has its own specific behaviour with respect to pool area, thickness of the layer
and thus evaporation behaviour
Differentiation is made between non-boiling liquids and boiling liquids by the program itself,
based on temperature of the release, and the characteristics of the chemical. The model
determines the conditions by itself.
Non-boiling liquid
A non-boiling liquid is a liquid with a temperature below its boiling point. Normally the boiling
temperature of the chemical will be above the ambient temperature.
For a non-boiling liquid with a boiling temperature below the ambient temperature (=
temperature subsoil) the liquid will rise in temperature because of the heat drawn from the
subsoil by which the liquid will become a boiling liquid: Then the non-boiling evaporation model
is not suitable.
Boiling liquid
In the EFFECTS model it is assumed that for the evaporation of a boiling liquid the
temperature of the liquid is equal to its boiling point, which is below the ambient temperature.
This will be the case for:
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ambient pressure will form a liquid pool on the surface. Then the same situation has
occurred as for a refrigerated liquid.
Subsoil Type
Subsoil Roughness
The roughness description relates to the minimum pool thickness that can occur, see Subsoil
roughness.
Results:representative values
All "Purple book representative values" are being calculated on the base of the selected
representative step
Representative density
The density of the vapour that is released from the pool is calculated on the base of mixed
with air from a 0.5 mtr top layer
Source chemical: Surface area * source rate/m2 = source rate M evaporation [kg/s] at
atmospheric pressure and representative temperature
Input air: Wind speed [m/s] * width pool [m] * 0.5 m height * 1.2 kg/s = amount of air mixed M
air in in kg/s
The combination of these two rates and density gives the density of the mixture.
Reference
"An advanced model for spreading and evaporation of accidentally released hazardous liquids
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on land"
by I.J.M. Trijssenaar-Buhre, R.P. Sterkenburg & S.I. Wijnant-Timmerman
TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands
5.2.5 Atmospheric dispersion
The gas or vapour released will be dispersed in the surrounding area under the influence of
the atmospheric turbulence. The concentrations of the gas or vapour released in the
surrounding area can be calculated by means of the atmospheric dispersion models. These
concentrations are important for determining whether, for example, an explosive gas cloud
can form or whether injuries will occur in the case of toxic gases. Within the EFFECTS
models a first differentiation is made between the following three types of dispersion models:
In the dispersion models account is taken of the atmospheric stability, the so-called Pasquill
classes (A to F) and a certain wind velocity. The source dimensions are taken into account by
means of an imaginary (virtual) point source wind upwards, for which the dispersed
dimensions at the point of the actual source are equal to the actual source dimensions. The
dispersion models apply only to open terrain. However allowance is made for the roughness
of the terrain. The influence of trees, houses, etc. on the dispersion can be determined by
means of a class of the roughness length.
The neutral gas dispersion model is based on the Gaussian plume model and no account is
taken of the difference in density between the ambient air and the gas. Because of this, the
model must only be used for gases with a density approximately the same as air, or if the gas
concentration at the point of release is low.
The direction of the release is always taken as horizontal to the wind direction.
Both Neutral and Dense gas dispersion models are available for the following type of
releases: Concentration, Explosive mass and Toxic dose.
For the neutral gas and heavy gas dispersion models the following type of calculations can be
carried out:
Concentration contour
The model calculates:
the dimensions of the contour (length and max. width) at given height
the maximum concentration and corresponding distance at time t: only for neutral gas
dispersion, instantaneous release and semi-continuous release when cloud has
drifted away from its release point.
graphical presentation of the contour in X-Y directions
graphical presentation of concentration with distance.
For semi-continuous and instantaneous releases the concentration contour is calculated for
one specified time t.
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Explosive mass
The model calculates:
the explosive mass, for concentrations higher than LEL or between LEL and UEL
the dimensions of the LEL contour
the dimensions of the UEL contour (not for heavy gas dispersion)
whether the source is at ground level or the plume touches the ground level or it is a
free plume.
For semi-continuous and instantaneous releases the explosive mass is calculated for one
specified time t.
For neutral gas dispersion the explosive mass and the dimensions of the LEL and UEL
contour are calculated for a height equal to the source height.
For heavy gas dispersion these parameters are calculated for a height equal to zero (ground
level).
Toxic load
The model calculates:
the toxic load, Cn.t, with C = concentration in mg/m 3 and t = duration in min at position (x,
y, z) for neutral gas dispersion
at position (x, 0, 0) for heavy gas dispersion for a certain exponent n and for a given
maximum exposure time after arrival cloud
the maximum concentration at position (x, y, z), and for semi-continuous and
instantaneous releases the corresponding time at position (x, y, z)
the arrival time and departure time of the cloud at position (x, y, z) (not for continuous
releases)
For these parameters a concentration equal to 1% of the maximum concentration is
assumed.
Within the model itself, the user has to choose for continuous, Semi-continuous or
Instantaneous.
For rather long releases the continuous release dispersion model has to be used and for very
short releases the instantaneous release dispersion model. In general the following is used to
judge whether the source can be considered as continuous or instantaneous [Yellow Book]:
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The dispersion calculations for the semi-continuous releases could be rather time
consuming.
If the gas has a higher density than air (because of a high molecular weight or of a low
temperature) it will tend to spread in a radial direction because of gravity, resulting in a gas
pool. As a result of this, in contrast to a neutral gas, the gas released may spread against the
direction of the wind.
In combined models, the selection criteria for using dense gas is: Dense gas is situation
where density of mixture (possibly including liquid droplets with very high density is 10%
heavier than air.
Heavy gas dispersion models are available for the following type of releases:
When a gas or vapour releases and the Reynolds number under the release conditions is
greater than about 2.5.104 (e.g. high release velocity) a jet occurs. Another condition is the
absence of obstacles in the jet. Turbulent free jet dispersion occurs when the gas velocity at
the release equals or is close to the velocity of sound.
Because a lot of the input parameters of a model can be taken from output of the preceding
model, the required input of the combined model is not the same as "all inputs of all models
together". Although they are referred as being a model-chain, it is better to think of a combined
model as being a tree, because it may consist of several branches.
The figure below illustrates that outflow model 1 can be followed by a spray release model
2 and a pool evaporation model 3. Note that models can share equal inputs, such as the
selected chemical, the wind speed and and the ambient temperature, and some inputs are
taken from a preceding model, like a rain out mass or liquid (droplet) fraction of airborne
mass. Furthermore, depending of the conditions of the cumulated source, the appropriate
dispersion model has to be run.
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In the occasion of a two phase release, the source rates from for instance airborne mass
rate from spray release and evaporation rate from pool-evaporation, are to be cumulated, to
create the combined source input for the dispersion model.
Note that the combined model often incorporates 4 types of dispersion models which will be
abbreviated in the model log:
HGDE: Heavy Gas Dispersion Explosive mass model, (Inst represents Instantaneous mode,
Pool represents Pool evaporation mode)
Furthermore, depending on the properties of the chemical material incorporated (and the
selection of phenomena to evaluate), the model chain will decide which mode (toxic of
flammable) or typical model type (heavy gas dispersion or neutral gas dispersion) to activate.
Usually, the branching starts with selection of the typical phase of the chemical (gas, liquefied
gas or liquid).
Apart from material phase, the type of scenario (instantaneous or semi continuous) will also
play an important role in selection of the release model.Typical LOC (Loss Of Containment)
scenarios will consist of an outflow (release) model (possibly followed by spray release or
turbulent free jet), followed by a possible pool evaporation model (if there is a rain-out mass)
and finally a dispersion model where the density of the gas determines whether to use the
heavy gas or the neutral gas model.
In order to be able to determine the correct chain, preconditions have been defined for all
branches of the model tree. For example: pool evaporation and pool fire models will require
the existence of a pool (pure liquid phase) or rain out mass from the two phase release.
The type of decisions that have been made along the route of calculating, are being presented
in the model log. All models that have been run will be listed here.
Models that were skipped from calculation will provide a reason why: "neutral gas dispersion
did not run because precondition not fulfilled: not a neutral gas" or "material is not toxic"
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Apart from the chain of events as illustrated above, some specific phenomena can also be
incorporated within combined models: depending on the type of ignition: a BLEVE, Pool fire or
Jet fire can happen. The occurrence of these phenomena also depends on the input
parameters: type of release (instantaneous, continuous) and state of the chemical.
The way the two sources are combined depends on the kind of release that is occurring.
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After calculation of (toxic or explosive) result, the dispersion results itself are cumulated.
For this cumulation of an instantaneous (G1) dispersion result, distinction has been made
between cumulation of dispersion-explosive models and cumulation of dispersion-toxics
models.
In normal mode, the presented contours and lethality grids will only present the corrected
dominating source, if the "expert mode"has been chosen, the secondary dispersion results
are also visualized.
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Continuous release
In case of the continuous release, the source rate is determined by:
1. The 2 phase Bottom Discharge (TPDIS) model, followed by spray release, which
calculates rainout mass flowrate and a airborn flowrate
2. The pool evaporation, fed by the rain out massrate will also create a continuous
sourcerate.
The dispersion model has to be fed with important cumulated parameters: combined mass
flowrate, representative release duration, and liquid fraction of the mixture.
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Not that if the input chemical is a pure liquid, the dispersion model will run in "poolevaporation
mode" and input will be purely the pool evaporation mass rate (release height 0).
If the chemical is a gas, the cumulation routine will skip the pool-input, and the following
dispersion model will run in "horizontal jet" mode, with dimensions taken from the jet
diameter.
Each model inside EFFECTS uses it's own set of required input fields.
To obtain additional information about a specific input box, simply press <F1> while the
cursor in the input box, and specific information about the field will pop up.
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Absorption speed
This is the average speed with which the particles are absorbed by the absorption surface
considered for the materials present in the room.
Absorption surface
This is the surface of the materials present in the room which can be considered to absorb
chemical particles with a certain absorption speed.
The Adiabatic vapour flash fraction present the amount of mass which can evaporate when
cooling down to boiling temperature at atmospheric conditions.
The relative humidity influences the atmospheric transmissivity. For the Dutch situation the
normal variation is between 50 - 90%.
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Ambient pressure
This is the ambient pressure at the vicinity of the release.
Ambient Temperature
The average yearly temperature or the temperature you want to use for all calculations. In
general, the higher the temperature the larger the effects and consequences. Mostly a value
between 9 and 25 degrees Celsius is used.
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5.5.11 at distance
....at distance
Fields that have "" at the beginning, always refer to a field directly above this one.
This is the distance between the release point and the (last) down-wind location where the
maximum concentration is found, in the direction defined by (Yd, Zd).
5.5.13 at time t
...at time t
This is the time at which the contour of the flammable cloud is displayed.
Because the user can choose to display results at various specified time steps, the actual
time is listed as well:
tmac represents the Time for the Maximum Area of Cloud.
tmem is the time for Maximum Explosive Mass
tuser at any user specified time
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Atmospheric pressure
The outside pressure is used in various dispersion and outflow calculations.
Atmospheric transmissivity
The atmospheric transmissivity (ta) is a measure for the absorbed heat which is emitted
by the fire and absorbed by the air in between the radiator and the observer. Without
absorption factors, ta equals to 1. The absorption factors (aw and ac) depend upon the
properties of the main absorbing components (H2O and CO2) in the air. Therefore the
atmospheric transmissivity is defined as:
The absorption factors aw and ac are estimated by using the graphs from Hottel, which
can also be found in the YB 3rd Edition 1997 on page 6.47.
As an example, if for a given scenario the overall released mass from the beginning of the
release until the vessel gets empty is 10,000 kg, and the first 2,000 kg (20% of the total
released mass) are released in 100 s, the average release rate (1st 20%) will be 20 kg/s.
This value is recommended to be used as averaged mass flow rate when linking outflow
models to pool evaporation or dispersion models in which we are interested in the
flammability of the chemical (explosive calculations).
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This is the release rate averaged during the second (out of five) period of the release in which
20% of the total released mass is released.
As an example, if for a given scenario the overall released mass from the beginning of the
release until the vessel gets empty is 10,000 kg, and the second 2,000 kg (20% of the total
released mass) are released in 200 s, the average release rate (2nd 20%) will be 10 kg/s.
This value is recommended to be used as averaged mass flow rate when linking outflow
models to pool evaporation or dispersion models in which we are interested in the toxicity of
the chemical (toxic calculations).
The different points and distances are shown in the figure below, to make the
understanding easier.
This time is usually the time of study t ("Time t after start release"), but if the vessel is
emptied previously, the time used to do the average is the time required for the emptying of
the vessel.
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Blast-wave shape at Xd
This is the shape of the blast wave obtained at the point of study Xd for a given vapour
cloud explosion scenario.
Three different shapes are possible, as defined in the method:
- Pressure wave: rapidly propagating wave in atmosphere causing a gradual
change in gas-dynamic state: high-density, pressure and particle velocity
- Shock wave: rapidly propagating wave in atmosphere causing an
instantaneous change in gas-dynamic state: high-density, pressure and particle
velocity
- Intermediate wave: intermediate wave between the pressure and the shock
wave
The BLEVE model support the usage of two different BLEVE calculation models. By default,
the "Dynamic model" is used.
(based on "Dynamic BLEVE: W.E. Martinsen and J.D. Marx, An improved model for the
prediction of radiant heat from fireballs,in: proceedings of the international conference and
workshop on modelling the consequences of accidental releases of hazardous materials,
sept. 28 - oct. 1 1999, San Francisco, California p.p. 605-621.).
The other "Static model" method is based on the Yellow Book (CPR-14E), 3rd edition 1997,
Paragraph 6.5.7.
Both models provide similar results, but the Dynamic BLEVE provides a more realistic time
dependent modelling of the phenomenon: it describes a growing and rising fireball.
Note that the static BLEVE also requires to enter a CO2 concentration to calculate
atmospheric transmissivity, and it reports a flame temperature. The height of the fireball is
always expressed as the height to the center of the sphere.
Due to the growing and rising effect, the dynamic BLEVE model provide higher max. radiation
levels at short distances, whereas on longer distances, the static BLEVE has higher doses.
When using 35 kW/m2 as a 100% lethality threshold, the Dynamic BLEVE result in a much
bigger 100% lethality radius, whereas the lower percentages of damage will not reach as far
as in case of the static model.
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The user can specify if output should contain levels for specific values (EFFECTS) or also
consequence lethality levels.
Case description
In this field, you can enter a description of the cases that you are calculating. It defaults to
"Session X" where X is a number between 1 and 5 or 16 (dependent upon the operating
system).
The case description will be shown in all graph legends as well as in all text output.
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The "pressure vessel burst with ideal gas" and "internal explosion" causes of rupture can
apparently seen to be the same, because the program requires the same inputs.
The overpressure calculation is the same for both cases, according to Bakers model, but
the calculation of the initial speed is done with different models, due to the presence of
higher impulses in case of an internal explosion.
Chemical name
This is the name of the chemical that you want to perform your calculation with. A chemical
can be toxic or flammable or both. Some chemicals (like water) are neither toxic nor
flammable. These are present in the database for reference purposes and for calculations
where water is involved (like evaporation of a chemical on water).
NOTE:
When a chemical does not have any toxic properties listed in the database, this does NOT
mean that it is not toxic. It only means that there is no probit (toxicity) function available.
Many chemicals are toxic, however only a very limited number have specific probit
functions available from literature that describe the mortal toxicity to humans. Probit
functions for most common chemicals are already added in the standard database.
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The total combustion rate is found by multiplying the surface area of the pool and the pool
burning mass flux. The burning mass flux can be provided in the database, or it will be
calculated if this value is not available.
As of version 10, the burning mass flux is provided as a separate field in the chemical
databases. For single components, many common substances already have an
experimental value provided in the database (expressed as kg/s.m2). If this value is not
available, the Burgess relation (Equation 6.67 on page 6.65 in the YB-2005 [Burgess,
1974].) will be used to estimate the burning mass flux.
Note that as soon as a burning mass flux value is (user) defined in the chemical
database, this value will overrule the use of the Burgess relation.
The typical values provided in the default database are based on Rew, P.J., Hulbert, W.G.
(1996), Development of a pool fire thermal radiation model, HSE Contract research report
no. 96. See table below.
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For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.
The minimum value for the averaging time is 18.75 s [Yellow Book], this compares to the
value for an instantaneous source, which is also used for the calculations of the contour for
the flammability limits and the explosive mass.
For a (semi-) continuous source this is the duration over which the concentration will be
averaged out, to deal with the effect of the meandering of the wind.
The averaging time for toxic concentration is related to aspects of the receiver. For local
irritant chemicals the effects can occur within few seconds (few breathings) and for
systematically irritant chemicals within few minutes (few times pumping of blood through
body).
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This output is not calculated, so not shown, when the distance from release (Xd) is higher
than the distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached (for positively
buoyant plumes) or higher than the distance where the plumes touch-down occurs (for
negatively buoyant plumes).
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The minimum value for the averaging time is 20 s [Yellow Book paragraph 4.5.3.4:
minimum sigma correction is 0.5, which is obtained for a time of 20 sec.].
Usually this 20 sec is used for the calculations of the contour for the flammability limits and
the explosive mass.
The averaging time for toxic concentration is related to aspects of the receiver, but
generally taken as 600 seconds. For local irritant chemicals the effects can occur within
few seconds (few breathing's) and for systematically irritant chemicals within a few
minutes (pumping of blood through body).
Concentration reduction at t
This is the unitary fraction of reduced concentration (outdoors concentration minus indoors
concentration) on the basis of the outdoors concentration.
Where:
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The "Contour plot accuracy" value is the maximum relative error (in %) associated to the
value (Vcalculated) of the concentration, toxic dose or fraction of mortality (depending upon
the type of contour) in any of the points of the contour, related to the threshold value
(Vthreshold).
For turbulent free jet calculations, the accuracy is only related to the calculation of the point
in the jets axis at which the threshold concentration is reached; the rest of the points of the
contour have an accuracy of 100%, since the radial distance at which a concentration is
reached can be analytically calculated from the threshold concentration and the axial
distance itself, and no iterative procedure is used.
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Curve Number
Combo Box where the curve to be used to obtain the different results of the method is
selected.
The multi-energy method is based upon experimental graphs in which the required value
depends upon the distance from the vessel and the type of explosion. 10 different types of
explosion are considered, and have a curve associated to them. Those are:
- 1: Very weak deflagration
- 2: Very weak deflagration
- 3: Weak deflagration
- 4: Weak deflagration
- 5: Medium deflagration
- 6: Strong deflagration
- 7: Strong deflagration
- 8: Very strong deflagration
- 9: Very strong deflagration
- 10: Detonation
As a default, the value from the the System Parameters value "Curve number for ME" will
be used.
The table below gives some indications on which class (curve number) to use for typical
blast strength, ignition strength, obstruction and parallel plane categories.
(see also paragraph 5.5.2 of the Yellow book)
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Default this one is set to 10. Although this value is quiet unrealistic, in combination with 8%
confined, answers are in the same order of magnitude as the old TNT method.
The multi-energy method is based upon experimental graphs in which the required value
depends upon the distance from the vessel and the type of explosion. 10 different types of
explosion are considered, and have a curve associated to them. Those are:
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This is the damage suffered by a typical American-style house if this one was situated at
the point of study.
The day, month and year number are used for the calculation of the actual solar heat
radiation. This value directly influences the angle the sun and a horizontal earth surface, on a
specified earth latitude
For maximum solar heat radiation, day 21 and month 6 (June) can be used, 21 12
(December) provides the minimum solar radiation.
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Default mixingheight
If population density is used, the total number of people will change whenever the area of the
polygon is changed.
If total number of people is defined, the density will be influenced by the definition of the area.
If the user has specified "calculate at specified time" this filed will present the density inside
the vessel at this time.
When the selected model is the dense gas dispersion, this field is required only for
horizontal and vertical jets types of release.
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Discharge coefficient
This is the coefficient (CD) used to take into account the limitation of the flow in a hole due
to contraction and friction phenomena.
Where
Contraction is caused by the fact that the fluid in the vessel is flowing into the opening from
all directions, having a velocity component perpendicular to the axis of the opening. The
flowing fluid must be bent in the direction parallel to the holes axis. The inertia of the fluid
results in the smallest cross-sectional area, with no radical acceleration, that is smaller
than the area of the opening.
For sharp orifices contraction plays a roll and friction is negligible, and the following value
for the discharge coefficient (Cd) is recommended:
For rounded orifices contraction does not play a roll and friction is small, and the following
value for the discharge coefficient (Cd) is recommended:
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5.5.60 Distance from centre mass of confined explosive cloud to point of study
In the Multi energy method, the overpressure, dynamic pressure, pressure impulse and
positive phase duration calculation depends upon this distance. In the TNT equivalency
method, only the overpressure calculation depends upon this distance, as it is the only
parameter that can be calculated.
5.5.61 Distance from centre mass of the cloud at which threshold overpressure is
reached
Distance from center mass of the cloud at which threshold overpressure is
reached
This is the distance from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud at which the
input threshold overpressure is reached for a given vapour cloud explosion scenario.
The definition of that distance for the BLEVE model can be observed in the following figure.
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Not to be confused with X (without the d), which is the X-coordinate of the release.
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Chamberlain Model
This is the downwind distance Xd of the object/observer from release point of the chemical.
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Dose reduction at t
This is the unitary fraction of reduced toxic dose (outdoors toxic dose minus indoors toxic
dose) on the basis of the outdoors toxic dose.
Where:
DR: concentration reduction [-]
Do: concentration outdoors [kg/m 3]
Di: concentration indoors [kg/m 3]
BLEVE model
This is the duration of the fireball, which is calculated from the quantity of combustible
material released in case of a complete failure of the tank, according to: t=0.852 * m0.26.
It has to be reminded that evaporating pool, horizontal jet and vertical jet releases (dense
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Equivalency factor
This is the factor used by the model to obtain the equivalent TNT mass, which is required
in the further calculations.
There are mass and energy equivalency factors, but in the literature it is more usual to find
factors for TNT equivalency based upon energy.
Paragraph 5.3.2 of the Yellow book gives some examples of sources and advised values
for the equivalency factors.
Usually (default) a factor of 10% is used, but the value can also be related to the activity of
the chemical:
- Low reactive : 5%
- Medium reactive : 10%
- High reactive: 15 %
Evacuation time
This parameters describes the time required for evacuation. It acts as a limiting time for
exposure calculations. Default is 1000000000 sec.
The evacuation time defaults to a large value, which means no evacuation occurs. When you
set this value to for example 7200 seconds (4 hours), the program will stop toxic dose
integration after 7200 seconds assuming that the people are evacuated by then. This value
does not influence all heat radiation en blast calculations as the effect happens in seconds
and there is no time to evacuate at all. We do not encourage to alter this value as not all
dispersion models can yet work with this value.
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The pool evaporation model has two modes of operation: from Land or Water.
The evaporation behavior is strongly influenced by the heat transfer, which is - in case of
evaporation from water - very high.
Note that, with evaporation from land, another choice: "Type of subsoil" is provided.
This parameter defines the fraction of the material which is vaporized: not a liquid anymore
If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
Expansion type
This is the type of expansion considered to happen in the vapour phase of the vessel
during the emptying process (vessel dynamics).
According to Poisson law, during an expansion process of a gas the factor P*Vn is
constant; three different types of expansion are physically found, and a different value for n
(expansion factor) is found for each of them. The expansion types are:
- Adiabatic (no loss of heat during the expansion)
- Isothermal (no variation on temperature during expansion)
- Polytropic (between purely adiabatic and purely isothermal, which seems to
be the case in real practice)
Explosive Mass
This is the amount of chemical that can be found in the vicinity of the jet within the
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In some cases, due to the specificities of the scenario, concentrations higher than the LEL
are found in the limit of momentum region. In such a case, explosive mass would be found
in the intermediate region of the jet. The explosive mass out of the momentum region is not
taken into account when performing the jets explosive mass calculations. This mass can
be calculated with the appropriate linking of the turbulent free jet with a vapour cloud
dispersion model.
If in a given location the effect duration is lower than the exposure duration (the passage
time of the toxic cloud is around 60s and the user chose an exposure duration of 1800s)
EFFECTS will internally rearrange the exposure duration so there is not a loss of accuracy
in the result of the integration process.
Example
The exposure duration is a powerful tool to model evacuation or sheltering. Say, a release
happens and people can find shelter after 10 minutes. If we assume that people can find
100% shelter inside houses we can model this as follows:
1. Set the start of exposure to zero
2. Set the exposure duration to the time that people can find shelter (600s)
In this case the model starts the exposure at t = zero, which means that people close to
the source of release will suffer from the effects but people further away from the release
will be exposed to lower concentrations because the cloud has not reached them yet. All
these are taken into account by the model.
NOTE 1: Future versions of the neutral gas dispersion model might take into account that
people inside houses will still be exposed to (lower) concentrations.
NOTE 2: For heat radiation, a dedicated "heat exposure duration" parameter is used, which
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is default 20 seconds, because the human reaction to intensive heat radiation is much
quicker.
5.5.81 Exposure duration to heat radiation
Time of exposure of object/observer to heat radiation from the BLEVE or the pool fire.
This field is not required when the vessel contains non-ideal gases or when the cause of
the failure is the decomposition of materials (Rupture of Vessel scenario).
The filling degree is the liquid volume in relation to the total vessel volume in terms of
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percentage.
If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
By default, the indoor toxic calculation uses a ratio of 1/10: lethality inside is one tenth of
lethality outside.
For long release durations, high exposures, or high ventilation ratios, this may be a very
optimistic assumption: even an outside dose which is much higher than 100% lethality still
has maximum 100% lethality, thus 10% lethality inside. For that reason it is advised to use
Toxic Indoor calculation method
Flame temperature
Estimation of the temperature of the burning flame due to this chemical, default is 1200 K
(= 926.85 C).
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Gasoline 1450
Kerosine 1480
JP-5 1250
Methanol 1300
Ethanol 1490
Flame tilt
Tilt angle of the flame (q), as indicated in the figure
Fraction of the generated heat radiated from flame surface. This value is dependent of the
type of chemical and diameter of the pool.
The yellow book table 6.6 provides the following experimental values:
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Default this one is set to 8.0 %. Although this value is quite unrealistic, it appears to give
answers comparable to the old TNT method.
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It has been experimentally demonstrated, as can be found in the 3rd edition of the Yellow
Book, that only the confined/obstructed parts of the explosive cloud contribute to the
deflagration/detonation phenomenon.
Note the importance of this value and its influence on the reliability of the final results. With
the rough estimate the initial velocity can sometimes be underestimated considerably.
The fraction of the flame which is covered by soot influences the actual heat radiation of
the flame.
When soot fraction choice for 'Calculate/Default" is made, the Yellow Book value of 0.8 will
be used.
Within the "Two Zone pool fire" model, the soot fraction will be chemical dependent as
described in the
publication of "Rew and Hubert".
If "User defined" is selected, the required value of the soot fraction can be defined
manually:
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Fragment distribution
Combo Box where the four different common types of fragment distribution after vessel
rupture are shown. Those are:
- 2 equal pieces
- 2 unequal pieces
- 2 caps and body
- Many equal pieces
The third case (3 unequal pieces) is the typical case for a cylinder that is ruptured in the
union between the main body and the two caps. It can not be selected if the vessel type is
a sphere.
Froude Number
Non-dimensional number used as a measure for the relative importance of initial
momentum and buoyancy.
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This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, the resulting strength of the
explosion when comparing to the original curve numbers. It is directly related to the calculated
maximum overpressure. This equivalent curve number is used to (logarithmically) interpolate
values from the curves after the starting point Pmax has been found.
This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, whether an open 3D
environment, or confined between parallel planes situation 2D situation applies. Choices are
3D or 2D
5.5.101 Graph Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Time
Graph Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Time
Equivalent graph in scales and limitations as the explosive mass vs. time but instead of
explosive mass, the area of the cloud (delimited by the LEL concentration) at the release
height is represented.
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The scale limitations are the same as for the Concentration contour plot.
Thats the graph obtained with the Concentration contour plot showed in the previous
paragraph; the maximum distance at which the threshold concentration is reached is 500m
so all the points of the plot are 500m from the release, located at x = y = 0m in that case.
Graph where a horizontal contour plot (so in the X-Y plane) is represented at Zd. The points
of the curve have a concentration of threshold (see "Threshold concentration") with an
associated accuracy (see "Contour plot accuracy").
The only limit in range is the minimum down-wind distance value, which is 1 cm above the
half-length of the source. No extrapolation is done to obtain a continuous contour (in up-
wind positions), neutral gas dispersion is only valid in down-wind locations out of the
source.
Graph where a contour plot (in the S-Y plane, containing to the jets axis) is represented.
The points of the curve have a concentration of threshold (see "Threshold concentration")
with an associated accuracy (see "Contour plot accuracy").
No extrapolation is done to obtain a continuous contour (out of the momentum zone), the
turbulent free jet model is only valid in the momentum zone.
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The range of the distance scale goes from the release point, which is situated at 0m to the
down-wind distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached.
The range of the axial distance scale ranges from 0 (where the possible expansion of the
jet is finished) to the point of study (Sd). If Sd is higher than the limit of the momentum
region, the maximum distance of the range is the limit of the momentum region itself, as
the model is not valid out of the momentum region.
5.5.106 Graph Concentration vs. Down-wind distance at time t and (Yd, Zd)
The range of the distance scale goes from 1 cm above the half-length of the source to Xd.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 to the time of study t.
This graph can only be obtained for instantaneous and semi-continuous releases.
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The Morrow model is valid until the distance to the interface is larger than half-length of the
pipeline. The time needed for the models calculations is shown in the output box Model
valid until time. After this the calculations continues with the predicted mass flow rate of
the last time step until all mass is removed.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the distance scale goes from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud
(which is set to 0) to the point of study.
The range of the time scale goes from 0s to the time of study t in case of instantaneous
release and to 1.1 * timerelease in case of semi-continuous release (for higher times the
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This graph can only be obtained for instantaneous and semi-continuous releases; for a
continuous release we can only obtain the steady explosive mass value.
The filling degree is the liquid volume in relation to the total vessel volume in terms of
percentage.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
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The range of the axial distance scale ranges from 0 (where the possible expansion of the
jet is finished) to the point of study (Sd). If Sd is higher than the limit of the momentum
region, the maximum distance of the range is the limit of the momentum region itself, as
the model is not valid out of the momentum region.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
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The range of the distance scale goes from 1 cm above the half-length of the source to Xd.
This graph can only be obtained for instantaneous and semi-continuous releases; for a
continuous release the concentration in one location is steady, it has no dependency upon
time.
Depending of the model, the graph can be presented at release height, at ground level
(heavy gas) or at receiver height Zd
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Graph where the height of the center-line of the plume is represented as function of the
distance from the release point or stack (Xd).
The range of the distance scale goes from the release point, which is situated at 0m to the
down-wind distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached (in case of
positively buoyant plume) or to the down-wind distance at which the plumes touch-down
occurs (in case of negatively buoyant plume)
The range of the distance scale goes from the release point, which is situated at 0m to the
down-wind distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached.
The range of the distance scale goes from the center mass of the confined explosive cloud
(which is set to 0) to the point of study.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
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The quality of the outflow is the vapour fraction in proportion to the total mass fraction.
Vapour outflow => quality = 1
Two-phase outflow => 0 < quality < 1
Liquid outflow => quality = 0
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
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Graph where the temperature in the jet is represented as function of the axial distance from
the jets release point, at 0 radial distance (so in the jets axis).
The range of the axial distance scale ranges from 0 (where the possible expansion of the
jet is finished) to the point of study (Sd). If Sd is higher than the limit of the momentum
region, the maximum distance of the range is the limit of the momentum region itself, as
the model is not valid out of the momentum region.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The scale limitations are the same as for the Concentration contour plot.
The range of the distance scale goes from 1 cm above the half-length of the source to Xd.
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Graph where the pressure present in the vapour part of the vessel is represented as
function of the time from the start of the release.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
The range of the time scale goes from 0 seconds (the moment at which the flow starts) to
the time of study t if the vessel has not been emptied. Otherwise, the maximum range of
the time is the time at which the vessel gets empty.
Grid resolution
The resolution of the grid (the number of calculation points) for plotting the contour plots for
the different values of the heat radiation
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For the calculation of the actual surface emissive power ( ) of a radiating body the
following equation is evaluated: , in which is the fraction of
the surface of the flame which is covered by soot. For the value as found by
Hgglund [Hgglund, B. and Persson, L.E. The heat radiation from petroleum fires, FOA
Rapport C201126-D6 (July 1976)] of .
Presents the resulting solar heat radiation flux as used in pool evaporation calculations. It can
be the actual value supplied as input, or calculated value, dependent on cloud cover, latitude
and day/month number
This field is only required for "Decomposition of materials" as cause of the vessels failure.
Heat radiation at Xd
This is the heat radiation ( ) produced by the fireball (BLEVE) or fire (Chamberlain, Pool
fire) at a certain position Xd as defined in distance from release Xd.
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By default, the vulnerability model (probit function) as described in the Green Book [4] has
been used for the exposure to heat radiation:
with q = the heat radiation level in [W/m 2] and t = the exposure duration in [sec], which is
assumed to be maximum 20 sec (defined by parameter max heat radiation exposure
duration). The probit value is transferred to a fraction of mortality (0..1) afterwards. This
implies a probit A of -36.38, Probit B = 2.56, and probit N = 4/3
Because some countries are accustomed to use other probits, these A, B and N values can
be modified.
The methodology described above is valid for individual and societal risk, but for inside
population a protection of 100% is assumed, as long as the level is lower than the heat
radiation total destruction level.
The probit values are listed within the table itself. From the side and the top of the table, the
percentage of mortality can be read. For example: A probit value of 4.01 (second row)
corresponds with a value of 16% mortality.
% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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This value determines the maximum duration of exposure to heat load, as used in
consequence calculations. Default is set to: 20.0 seconds
This parameter defines the heat radiation level that will be associated with total destruction.
Anything above this level will result in 100% lethality
Height (Zd)
Vertical (upward) coordinate of the point of study (i.e. the point where the concentration is
to be calculated). Not to be confused with Z (without the d), which is the height of the
release.
When using defaults in dispersion calculation, the System Parameters value "Toxic
Inhalation height" is .
NOTE: In the case that Zd = Z this means the release takes place in the same plane as the
point of study. In the case of Zd = Z = 0 then both release point and point of study are
located at ground level.
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This input is present to take into account the height to overcome as an impediment to the
flow and the height to be flown down as an enhancement of the flow.
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This is the height of the hole in a vertical cylindrical vessel from the bottom of the vessel.
This parameter can be used to define an elevated poolfire, such as a rooftop fire of oiltanks.
Because the poolfire is elevated, heat radiation may reach further, but at close distance
radiation will be lower due to the higher distance to the flame.
This parameter defines the height of a congestion zone, thus limiting the amount of explosive
mass which can be captured inside this area. The maximum mass will be calculated based
on the available volume within this height, when filled with a stochiometric concentration of the
chemical released.
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This parameter defines the height of a construction which can be defined as a vulnerable
area.
This is the height of the liquid phase inside the vessel at the time of study t.
If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
This parameter can be used to define the receiver of the heat radiation to be at a specific
height.
Because the pool fire is modelled as a tilted cylinder, a receiver at height might be closer to
the flame leading to higher values downwind of the fire.
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This parameter can be used to define an existing pool height at the start of the release.
This output is not calculated, so not shown, when the distance from release (Xd) is higher
than the distance at which the maximum height of the plume is reached (for positively
buoyant plumes) or higher than the distance where the plumes touch-down occurs (for
negatively buoyant plumes).
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Hole diameter
This is the diameter of the hole through which the gas, liquid or liquefied gas is released,
assuming that the hole has a circular shape
The hole rounding is a parameter that influences the discharge coefficient (in outflow models)
The discharge coefficient Cd is in fact determined by two factors: friction and contraction.
Contraction is caused by the fact that the fluid in the vessel is flowing into the opening from all
directions, having a velocity component perpendicular to the axis of the opening. The flowing
fluid must be bent in the direction parallel to the hole axis.
For sharp orifices contraction plays a part and friction is negligible. For this reason Hole
rounding choice
"sharp edges" corresponds to discharge coefficient:Cd = 0.62
For "rounded edges" contraction does not play a part and friction is small; the discharge
coefficient is set to Cd = 1.0
The choice "User defined" enables the input field "Discharge coefficient"
Hole type
Combo Box where the kind of break in the pipeline through which the gas is released can
be chosen
- Guillotine break: Fully ruptured pipeline. At the
point of the rupture, the upstream and downstream ends of the
pipe are assumed to be totally separated in such a way that the
flow rates coming from the upstream and downstream pipe
regions are independent. The discharge coefficient (Cd) is in this
case always set to 1.
- Hole in a pipe: Release from a pipeline through a hole
in the pipe. For this type of release is necessary to know the
holes diameter.
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The BLEVE fireball model also allows to calculate overpressure generated by the explosive
evaporation effects. By default, this will be skipped, because the fireball phenomena is usually
dominant over overpressure, but these effects can be included by selecting "Yes" .
Overpressure is calculated by using the Bleve Blast method, which is also available as a
separate explosion model.
This parameter is used in the calculation of inside lethality by toxic exposure. The ventilation
ratio highly affects inside toxic exposure. The default value is 1 times per hour, representing
natural ventilation. Note that for mechanical ventilation situation values ranging from 2.5 (living
room) to 10 (bathrooms, moist environment) are common.
The initial height of liquid above release point, the hole in the storage tank.
Initial pressure of the gas at (exit) hole or pipe hole, the point where the gas is released.
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This field is required only for instantaneous and jet releases. For evaporating pools, no
liquid is present in the release chemical.
The initial density will determine the behaviour of the plume (positively or negatively
buoyancy) so the composition of the plume should be taken into account (air or other inert
chemicals can decrease or increase the density of the release). The model is only valid for
pure chemicals, but a mixture can be taken into account in the calculation of the initial
density.
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When the selected model is the Rupture of Vessels, this field is not required in case the
cause of the vessels rupture is "Pressure liquefied gas, BLEVE" as the temperature can
be obtained from the vapour pressure - temperature data.
Defines the fraction of the population which is inside. This affects the number of victims in a
"vulnerable area" because they are partially protected for a toxic cloud (dependent of
ventilation ratio) and heat radiation.
Integration tolerance
If you observe one of the following symptoms when dealing with a semi-continuous
release:
Sudden change of results (e.g. from anything to zero) when a small change
in the input has been made
Oscillation of graphs
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Then reducing the integration tolerance (smaller value) will result in higher integration
accuracy and better results.
The software uses a Romberg integration method on various places in the model. This
means that the integration is started in coarse steps and those are gradually refined until
the contribution of the last integration step is smaller than the integration accuracy.
A Romberg integration is fast, powerful but has one major disadvantage: if the accuracy is
too low, it will miss small peaks in the integration domain and when the accuracy is too
high, it takes much calculation time to perform one single integration. The default value of
1% accuracy is an optimum between accuracy and calculation duration.
The integration tolerance is the error (in percent) that can be assumed to be the result of
the time-integral required in every semi-continuous concentration calculation. The integral
is solved numerically and so this tolerance is the ending condition of the numerical
resolution.
A lower value indicates a lower integration tolerance and results in higher integration
accuracy!
Internally, the program does its calculations with Monin-Obukhov lengths, not with
Pasquills 6 stability classes.
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5.5.182 Latitude
Latitude
Scenarios earth latitude (positive in North or negative for South), expressed in degrees.
The default value is the average in the Netherlands (51 degrees).
A latitude value is used to calculate the Coriolis parameter, which is one of the parameters
used to estimate the mixing height in dispersion models.
The latitude is also applied within the pool evaporation model to calculate the solar heat
radiation flux at a specific date and earth location.This value directly influences the angle
the sun and a horizontal earth surface, on a specified day an month number.
Length cylinder
This is the length of the cylindrical vessel, assuming it is a geometrical cylinder (plane
caps). The inside diameter of the cylindrical vessel is internally calculated supposing
according to:
4.Volumevessel
Diameter vessel =
p .Lengthvessel
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In DIERS model, this is the total height of the vessel, since the model is only valid for
vertical cylindrical vessels.
Time t is the time of study entered by the user, time tmem is the time at which the
explosive mass is maximal, and time tmac is the time at which the area of the LEL-contour
is maximal.
In case of a continuous release, this is the steady state length of the cloud between LEL at
the height mentioned above.
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Note:
When using higher values for initial source dimensions, the model will calculate the
initial concentration of the material based on the initial dimensions. This can be
used to model pre-diluted outflows.
Note 2:
If for a (semi) continuous release, a non-zero length of source is entered, this will
be used as an offset for the start of the contour. This can be used to model the
behaviour of an evaporating pool where the center of the pool is treated as the
release point. The used offset is half the source length.
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All areas with pressure between "total destruction" and "inside damage" levels, will be treated
with this corresponding inside damage lethality level. The lethality fraction will only be applied
in societal risk calculations, on inside population.
Defines the lethality within the total destruction pressure level zone. By default 100% (fraction
1)
Liberated energy
This is the overall estimated energy that will be liberated and lead to the rupture of the
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This field is only required when there are no known methods to estimate the liberated
energy from the contents and conditions of the vessel. This is the case of pressure vessel
burst and runaway reaction for non-ideal gases or vapours, and for pressurised liquefied
gases for which no expansion work data is available.
To obtain the value of the liberated energy in such cases, experimental data (from
pressure-enthalpy diagrams or tables to obtain the difference in internal energy between
the chemical at vessel and ambient conditions) is required or reconduct the calculations to
the ideal gas case.
The liquid mass fraction in cloud presents the amount the mass in the cloud which is still in
liquid condition, e.g. dragged along with the flashing vapour as droplets.
Because the model uses the AMINAL approximation to calculate the total mass in the cloud,
this total "airborne mass" (mass remaining in air: not rained out) is partly vapour (the
adiabatic flash amount) and partly liquid droplets.
When using a dispersion model based on the calculated total mass, and there is liquid in the
cloud, it is suggested to use a "Dense dispersion model".
AMINAL- Belgium, "Nieuwe richtlijn voor het berekenen van flash en spray" doc.97/001,
which is original source of table 4.8 of Purple Book CPR 18E
If the vessel is emptied at time empty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty . A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
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Mass of fragment
This is the mass of the considered fragment when studying projectile effects. If the
fragment distribution selected was "2 equal pieces" or "Many equal pieces", just one type of
fragment (shape, area and mass) is possible so just one mass, initial speed and maximum
range will be shown in the output, but if "2 unequal pieces" or "2 caps and body" was
selected, two types of fragments are possible and two masses, initial speeds and
maximum ranges will be shown in the output.
This field is required only when fragment distribution is "2 unequal pieces" or "3 unequal
pieces".
If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.
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If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.
This area is the horizontal (in the X-Y plane and at the height of release) section of the
cloud defined by the LEL value.
This maximum area of the cloud can only be calculated if the area of the cloud vs. time
graph has been generated.
At the height of the release we find, for neutral gases, the maximum section of the cloud.
In case of continuous release, as theres no dependency upon time, the value presented is
the steady area of the cloud (also limited by the LEL).
The maximum value for averaging concentrations calculations, default 3600 sec
This maximum concentration can only be calculated if the maximum concentration vs.
down-wind distance graph has been generated, in case of semi-continuous or
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instantaneous releases.
In some cases, due to the specificities of the scenario, the LEL concentration is not
reached in the momentum region, and then the result.
The maximum distance on which the threshold concentration, which has been supplied in the
input, can be found.
The maximum time to evaluate the behaviour of the model. Time dependent graphs will be
presented until this value
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The maximum temperature difference between the liquid in the pool and the water.
When a volatile liquid is released, its temperature usually decreases. This causes the water
to also cool down.
In the model for heat transfer that is implemented in EFFECTS, there is no heat transfer by
convection (i.e. the water behaves like a rigid body).
This might lead to an under prediction of the heat transfer from the water to the pool, which
would lead to a under estimation of the temperature of the pool.
Therefore, the user may choose to set a maximum temperature difference between the pool
and the water.
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Notes:
- The difference value is defined as the water temperature minus the pool temperature
(positive value implies that the pool has a lower temperature than the water)
- The maximum temperature difference does not affect pools that are warming up
- The maximum temperature difference does not affect pools that are boiling
- The maximum temperature difference must be greater than or equal to zero (in other words:
if the pool temperature is higher than that of the water, the heat transfer is not affected by it)
- Set the max. temperature difference to a very high value (e.g. 500 K) if you don't want it to
affect the outcome of the calculations
Meteorological Data
Combo Box where the user chooses the type of scale he will use to input the stability of the
scenario. This can be Pasquill or Monin-Obukhov.
If Pasquill is chosen, the software will ask for the Pasquill Stability Class.
If Monin-Obukhov is chosen, the software will ask for the Inverse Monin-Obukhov Length,
Mixing Height, and Standard Deviations of Turbulent Velocities
Mixing Height
Height of the turbulent boundary layer (above the ground). This layer is also called mixing
layer, and it is the atmospheres first layer, where turbulence occurs and so does
dispersion. Only is input when the user chooses to input meteorological data as Monin-
Obukhov type.
When the meteorological data is "Pasquill", the dispersion model estimates the mixing
height (from stability class, latitude and roughness length class) and it appears as an
output, with "used" at the end.
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5.5.221 n value
n value
This is the value of the expansion factor defined in Poissons law.
PV^n = constant
The value for n depends upon the expansion type (which can be chosen in the Expansion
type field),
- Adiabatic expansion: n = k, the so-called Poisson coefficient (k = CP / CV)
- Isothermal expansion: n = 1
- Polytropic expansion: 1 < n < k
This field is only required when a Polytropic expansion has been selected, as for the other
two types of expansion the values are predefined (1 for isothermal and the Poisson
coefficient, which is obtained from the database, for the adiabatic).
The amount of liquid that ends up in a liquid pool. Note that other still liquid material may
remain "airborne" defined by the liquid mass fraction in cloud This is also referred to as "spray
fraction"
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Number of pieces
This is the number of pieces into which the vessel is ruptured.
This field is only required when the fragment distribution is set to "Many equal pieces".
Time t is the time of study entered by the user, time tmem is the time at which the
explosive mass is maximal, and time tmac is the time at which the area of the LEL-contour
is maximal.
In case of a continuous release, this is the steady state offset of the LEL-contour at the
height mentioned above.
In combined models, the calculation engine will automatically search for all possible
phenomena that might occur for the specific loss of containment event. Depending on the
type of chemical, toxic or flammable, multiple outcomes will be evaluated.
In some occasions, it is not rally useful to include "All"possible phenomena, for instance
because an ammonia pool can hardly be set on fire. In these occasions, the outcome can be
limited to only toxic, or any other specific phenomena.
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Outdoor concentration
This is the concentration in the vicinity of the considered room. We can take into account
the concentration due to the toxic cloud which would be found in the center of the room (as
if there was no sheltering); it is not necessary to average the concentrations as if there was
no sheltering) in all the points of the room.
Presents the resulting outflow time for the continuous release: the initial mass of material
divided by the outflow rate
5.5.230 Output message level
Output message level
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The amount of detail in log reports are influences by this setting. A higher value gives more
detailed and larger logfiles.
If the overpressure is equal to 0 bar then the pressure above the liquid is the same as the
ambient pressure.
When the selected model is the neutral or dense gas dispersion and the type of
meteorological data is "Monin-Obukhov" this field is disabled.
This stability class is strongly dependent of the wind speed, time of day and cloud cover
and can be selected using the table below:
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Peak overpressure at Xd
This is the maximum overpressure that will be reached in the point of study Xd for a given
vapour cloud explosion or vessel rupture scenario.
This pressure defines the minimum pressure level for inside damage. All areas with pressure
between "total destruction" and "inside damage" levels, will be treated with the corresponding
inside damage lethality level. The lethality fraction will only be applied in indoor calculations, on
inside population. The pressure level will also be used as a threshold level for pressure
contours presented by TNT or Multi Energy models.
The program can draw contours for specific consequence (lethality) levels.
Checkbox where the user can choose whether he wants EFFECTS to generate the
Maximum concentration vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd) graph or not, as it is one of the
time-consuming steps of the model and not all the studies require its calculation.
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Explosive mass vs. Time and Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs. Time
graphs or not, as they are the most time-consuming step of the model (specially if the
release is semi-continuous!) and not all the studies require its calculation.
The toxic exposure inside can be calculated based on the actual concentration time profile
and ventilation rate. This calculation is invoked by selecting "Yes" in this setting. The
calculation is performed inside the Dispersion Toxic dose models which will also present a
Inside lethality grid (expert parameter).
The inside lethality is strongly influenced by passage time of the cloud, and ventilation ratio.
Pipeline diameter
This is the inside diameter of the pipeline connected to the vessel. The different models
assume the diameter is constant for the whole pipeline.
Pipeline length
This is the length of the pipeline connected to the vessel through which the gas, liquid or
liquefied gas is released.
The length is measured from the vessel up to the guillotine fracture or the hole in the
pipeline.
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For the long pipeline models (gas and two phase, e.g Wilson and Morrow model), full
blocking of the pipeline length is assumed, and the release is based on the contents of the
pipe itself (as if no vessel attached).
In the combined models and universal release model the "long pipeline" models will be
activated if the length exceeds 1 km.
In case of a full bore ruptured of a long pipeline according to the Wilson Model, the
parameter Lp (length pipeline) could be understood as the distance up to the guillotine
break. So, if the full-bore rupture happens 2 km after the initial point, in case of a 10 km
pipeline the total outflow is the outflow from a 2 km pipeline and an 8 km pipeline. The
outflow from both pipeline parts must be calculated with the Wilson model.
For non-stationary gas outflow through small holes the Wies model (page 2.73 YB) is
valid.
This model regards the pipeline as a volume; in this case the pipeline length (lp) is the total
length of the pipeline. For this type of outflow the model will calculate the total mass outflow
at once.
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rates of two pipe parts. The outflow from both pipeline parts must be calculated with the
Morrow model.
Pipeline roughness
This is the relative wall roughness of the pipeline walls(ratio between the wall roughness
and the pipe diameter). For the wall roughness the values in the table below (as proposed
in table 2.2 in the 3rd edition of the Yellow Book) can be used.
Pipeline volume
This is the total pipe volume calculated by the pipeline diameter and the pipeline length.
Pool surface
This is the surface area of the liquid pool that is formed.
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The actual temperature of liquid at the moment it is released into the pool.
Note that this temperature can never exceed the boiling temperature at atmospheric
pressure. For atmospheric storage systems, the actual storing temperature can be used, for
pressurized situation, the temperature should be the temperature after flashing or cooling
down to atmospheric boiling point.
Pool thickness
Alternatively, the "Two-Zone poolfire" method can be used, which distinguishes a clear and a
sooty part of the flame, which have dedicated SEP (Surface Emissive Power) values
provided for a more extensive list of Chemicals.
The two-zone pool fire model is described in the document "Pool fire model
improvements.pdf" , which is installed in the installation folder, and is officially published in:
'Rew, P.J. & Hulbert, W.G. (1997) Modelling of Thermal radiation from external hydrocarbon
poolfires, in Trans IChemE, Vol.75 part B,' and
'Rew, P.J. & Hulbert, W.G. (1996), Development of a pool fire thermal radiation model, HSE
Contract research report no. 96 '
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The area where population is present can be defined by using the edit button, this will start the
inline editor allowing to define a shape.
Predefined concentration
Combo Box containing some threshold concentration usual values for contour plots and
dynamic concentration grid calculation:
- User defined
- Lower Flammability Limit
- Upper Flammability Limit
- 1% lethality concentration (for toxics)
- 50% lethality (in case of toxics)
- IDLH, AEGL, ERPG if supplied in the chemical database
The first option is called "user defined". In that case the user can enter any value. You can
then input it in the next input field called "Threshold Concentration".
In all other cases the "Threshold Concentration" input field will be disabled and filled with
the corresponding database value.
If the selected chemical also has specific Threshold Concentrations listed in the database,
these typical values (like ERPG's, IDLH or AEGL values) will be listed in this combo box
as well.
For the % lethality concentration selection, the corresponding threshold concentration will
be based on the current selected exposure time.
The first option is user defined, in case the user desires another value. You can input it in
"Wind comes from (North = 0 degrees)".
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The default is 270 degrees, implying wind FROM west implying that all contours will be
directed from left to right, pointing TO the east
If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
If the user has specified "calculate at specified time" this filed will present the pressure inside
the vessel at this time.
1. Using two pressure levels: total destruction and inside (glas) fragments.
The parameters define the values a, b and N, based on units Pascal and seconds.
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Pressure impulse at Xd
This is the pressure impulse calculated for a given vapour cloud explosion or vessel
rupture scenario at the point of study Xd.
If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.
The model can work with the two possibilities:Use vapour pressure will use the equilibrium
pressure for the supplied temperature.
The choice "Use actual pressure" will use a user specified pressure, which may be higher
than vapour pressure.
During outflow, this overpressure will quickly disappear due to mass release.
This value is used to define the peak pressure level at which inside and outside lethality
is assumed to be 100% (total destruction zone). Default value is 300 mBar (0.3 Bar)
This value is used to define the peak pressure level at which inside and outside lethality
is assumed to be 100% (total destruction zone). Default value is 300 mBar (0.3 Bar)
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Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
In a gas cloud explosion, the flashfire may be accompanied by overpressure effects. This
parameter determines the probability that flash AND explosion occur. Default is 0.4
The projection system contains a strict definition in what units, with which reference system
and which visualization angle (where is North) coordinates should be displayed.
The standard system to be used has to be defined in "Presentation settings": this offers a
huge list of standardized projection systems. The default choice here is WGS 84 Pseudo
Mercator. This choice defines the coordinate system to be used for all presentations in the
map GIS view.
It is important to emphasis that the choice of the project projection system should be the
first thing to decide when starting to work with a project. Changing the project system
after equipment locations and receiving objects have been placed will change the values
associated with the coordinate, and might lead to rotated or even disappearing maps and
locations: because there not "in view" in the changed system.
(For example, a back ground map in Dutch Amersfoort RD system will no longer show up when the
project is changed to Singapore SVY21 and will be rotated when displayed in Swedish National Grid
system).
The protection factor applied for clothing, used for societal risk calculations on heat radiation.
A probit calculation will be applied on heat radiation, leading to a lethality. This lethality is
corrected with this factor to obtain the damage in case of societal (protected) calculations
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If the total mass in the cloud will get ignited, it is assumed that it will create a flashfire/fireball
in the shape of half a sphere, which has a specific ground footprint.
The radius of this footprint is calculated on the base of mixing the total airborn mass to Upper
Explosion Limit.
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This field present the amount of mass that will rainout and form a pool.
Basically the initial mass in the vessel is divided into a part that will remain in the cloud
(airborn), and a part that will rainout.
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A release location consists of an X and Y coordinate value, in the units as defined in the
current coordinate projection system.
Note that changing the projection system will also change the value of the X and Y numbers,
because these are internally stored in a fixed Mercator map unit system and translated into
the current projection system when displayed on screen.
The flammable cloud dispersion model will report the flammable contour at a specific time,
which need to be set by the user. the model can search for the maximum area of the cloud,
the maximum explosive mass in the cloud, or report at specific user defined time.
At this specific "reporting" time step, the area, explosive mass, length and width of the cloud
will be reported
This is the density belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20% or
second 20% of the mass is released)
The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
Depending on whether the calculation is performed until a vessel is empty or until a user
specified time,
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- the total mass outflow until the user specified time divided by the ' representative outflow
rate'
The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
This is the pool radius belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20%
or second 20% of the mass is released)
The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
This is the pressure belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20% or
second 20% of the mass is released)
The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
This is the average release rate in the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20% or
second 20% of the mass is released).
The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
This is the temperature belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the first 20%
or second 20% of the mass is released)
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The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
This is the vapour mass fraction belonging to the chosen time period (the period in which the
first 20% or second 20% of the mass is released)
The graph of the "Purple book approximation of a time varying source" illustrates the first and
second highest time block.
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Room volume
This is the volume in which the persons would look for shelter in case of a toxic accident.
This volume is supposed to be all situated at the down-wind position x, y, z.
x = typical upwind obstacle distance, h = the height of the corresponding major obstacles
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The roughness length is an artificial length-scale appearing in relations describing the wind
speed over a surface, and which characterizes the roughness of the surface. Note that the
sizes of the elements causing the roughness can be more than ten times larger than the
roughness length
The drawing of a specific shape or polygon, is activated by pressing the button in the input
field list. Make sure the "Map" tab is activated and a background map is available, otherwise
definition of a shape makes no sense. Shapes are used to define congestion areas,
vulnerable areas, or pool shapes.
Potentially zoom in on the area of interest (use mouse wheel for zooming, right mouse drag
for moving the map), lock the scale to avoid re-dimensioning of the background map, and
select the edit button. This will change the shape of the cursor into a hand with a cross
illustrating the "draw mode".
Start pinpointing coordinates on the map, thus defining the shape (polygon) of the habituated
area. Each point which is clicked on the map will leave a small red dot. Adding more dots will
create additional points creating a more complicated polygon.
Add a point: Simply click on the map and a point will be added next to the current active (red)
point.
Move a point: Select a point and drag the point with the <left mouse button>.
Delete a point: select any point of the polygon, which will give the active point a red color.
Clicking it again will remove this point.
Select the blue <edit> button again to finish the shape definition.
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The pool evaporation model uses an overall heat balance for the pool to calculate the
evaporation. This heat balance also includes solar heat radiation.
Users can choose whether to use a fixed value for solar heat radiation, or calculate the actual
value based on day, month, cloud cover and latitude of the location.
The solar heat radiation flux is the actual value for the heat flux as used in pool evaporation
calculations.
Note that values may range from negative (at night: earth radiates towards sky) to 1500
Watts/m 2 depending on the latitude, cloud coverage, and day of the year.
When the actual value has to be calculated, several other input values are required: earth
location latitude value, cloud cover and day/month of the year.
The speed of the chemical depends upon the amount released, the quality of the release
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(possible presence of liquid) and the density of the release. The model is only valid for pure
chemicals, but a mixture can be taken into account in the calculation of the initial speed.
By default, the Yellow Book is used (paragraph 2.5.3.7) which uses relations of Kukkonen et
al.
Alternatively, the Aminal Rule can be used, which applies a straightforward rule of thumb to
calculate the spray fraction ('AMINAL - Richtlijn voor het berekenen van Flash en Spray,
1997').
This Aminal rule defines that the spray fraction is the minimum of [1 minus adiabatic flash, 4
times adiabatic flash], and rainout fraction is calculated as: 1 minus (Flash fraction plus spray
fraction).
A third option is the use of a "Statistical Spray Release" method. This method utilizes a
statistical sampling method to create a droplet size distributions, and is described in the
document "Statistical Spray Release Model.pdf " which is installed within the installation
folder.
When the meteorological data is "Pasquill", EFFECTS estimates the standard deviations of
turbulent velocities (from pasquill stability class and roughness length class) and it appears
as an output, with "used" at the end.
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StandardPipeRoughness
The roughness of a pipe is used in pipe flow pressure drop calculations, default 4.5E-5 m
Example:
A person could be sheltering inside a house when a release takes place. When this person
comes out of the house after say 1 hour (start of exposure = 3600s), the release might be
ended and concentrations outside (which this model calculates) might have decreased to
safe levels. On the other hand, if a person leaves the house after 10 minutes (start of
exposure = 600s), dangerous concentrations might still be present and higher toxic values
reached. In this way one can model the sheltering behaviour of people.
Graph 1
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In case the program doesnt find a contour (it will generate a warning to say it to the user, in
which the step size used will be shown) but the user is sure the plot exists, he can input a
different value (than the one found in the warning) of the step size to try to find the contour.
The "step size", in meters, is the step size we want the program to use in the first step of a
contour plot calculation: finding the contour. If no value is entered, EFFECTS estimates the
size of the step itself for finding the contour (in case it exists for the given release case and
threshold value). If for example the threshold value is higher than the maximum
concentration, the contour doesnt exist).
A contour is normally not found if it has a length lower than 5m, and the internal stepsize
estimation hasnt found the appropriate value.
If we can estimate the position of the center of the contour, even if it is a 5 cm long contour,
the stepsize to be used is the following:
We add one centimeter to the half-length of the source to ensure we are not making
calculations within the source, where the Gaussian distribution is not valid. It also means
that clouds completely located within the first centimeter will never be found, but this is not
a real limitation for practical use.
The temperature of the subsoil or water that you want to use for pool evaporation calculations.
In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and consequences.
In practical situations the pool will spread until it reaches some minimum thickness which is
related to the surface roughness. As typical values a lower limit of 5 millimeters for smooth
surfaces, and for very rough surfaces several centimeters are used.
The classification provided here is based on table 3.1 from the Yellow Book:
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Subsoil type
Is used for pool spreading and determines the minimum layer for a pool thickness.
This is the surface area of the frustum, when it is approximated to a cylinder, as tried to
indicate in the figure.
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The actual surface emissive power of the frustum, which equals the maximum surface
emissive power when there is no soot formation.
For the calculation of the actual surface emissive power ( ) of a radiating body the
following equation is evaluated: , in which is the fraction of the
surface of the flame which is covered by soot. For the value as found by Hgglund
[Hgglund, B. and Persson, L.E. The heat radiation from petroleum fires, FOA Rapport
C201126-D6 (July 1976)] of .
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The value of the maximum surface emissive power from a flame without soot is calculated
by: , in which = fraction of the generated heat which is
radiated from the flame surface, = burning rate [ ], = heat of combustion [ ], =
average height of the flame [m], =pool diameter [m].
Combo Box with the option, whether yes or no, to take protective clothing into account
In an evaporating pool, the temperature of release is, by definition, the boiling temperature
at ambient pressure of the chemical (so it depends upon the chemical and the database;
the user cannot modify it, the field is disabled).
In vertical and horizontal jets, this is the temperature of the material after the expansion into
atmospheric pressure.
If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
5.5.306 Temperature at Sd
Temperature at Sd
This is the temperature in the jet at the point of study Sd. No specific calculation can be
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done for the variation of the temperature in the jet for different radial distances Yd, so we
have to assume that the same temperature will be reached in all the points at the same
axial distance (Sd).
If the user has specified "calculate at specified time" this filed will present the temperature
inside the vessel at this time.
If the vessel is emptied at time tmax before time t (tmax < t) all the outputs that should be
calculated at t will have been calculated at tmax. A warning will be generated to inform the
user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tmax at which this occurred.
The input parameter describes the initial temperature of the liquid in the pool.
In the pool evaporation model the pool temperature will gradually decrease, because
evaporation heat is being taken from the material.
This effect is presented as a graph of temperature versus time
This field will present the corresponding boiling temperature of the chemical at atmospheric
conditions. It is assumed that the vessel contents will cool down because of the flashing
behaviour.
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Threshold concentration
Concentration value the program will use (if "User defined" was selected in "Predefined
concentration" input box) to generate the concentration contour plot.
In other words, this is the value of the concentration to be displayed in the contour plot.
Apart from a contour "at time T" (concentration model) the outer contour of the specified
threshold can be displayed, illustrating how far a specific threshold can reach. This
threshold will default be LFL in flammable cloud models, but can be user defined and
includes choices like IDLH, but also ERPG or AEGL concentrations. The available choices
will be read from the chemical database. If the values are not provided, the user can
manually ADD a concentration threshold to the substance. (See chemical database).
A word of warning is required here when using these threshold for toxic materials, because
although AEGL and ERPG are concentration thresholds, they are associated to a specific
exposure duration!
For instantaneous and short duration semi-continuous releases, the maximum distance to
concentrations may be very large, but has no meaning if exposure duration is not taken into
account.
In other words, this is the value of fraction of mortality (with a certain accuracy, see
"Contour plot accuracy") in all the points of the contour.
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Threshold overpressure
This is the overpressure value (in mBar) for which we want to calculate the distance from
the center mass position where it is reached (output value). It is also the threshold value to
be used when calculating the output contour plot of all the positions where this
overpressure is reached.
In other words, this is the value of toxic dose (with a certain accuracy, see "Contour plot
accuracy") in all the points of the contour.
As indicated in the figure, ab is the tilt angle of the central axis of the flare.
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Presents the time at which the pool has totally been evaporated. If the user has supplied a
maximum time which is smaller than the required evaporation time, or the pool stops
evaporating due to low temperature, this filed may be empty.
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Presents the time at which the pool has the maximum dimensions. This might be the time at
which the pool reaches the wall of the bund, or the time the pool start shrinking again.
5.5.321 Time t after cloud arrival
For the outflow models, in case the time after release is larger than the emptying time of
the vessel/pipe, the outflow parameters shown by the program will have been calculated at
the emptying time of the vessel/pipe.
For the dispersion models, the contours of interest will be drawn at this time t. When using
Dynamic Concentration Presentation the contour can be illustrated using a color grid at any
time.
Basically the initial mass in the vessel is divided into a part that will remain in the cloud
(airborn), and a part that will rainout.
The total mass in the cloud describes the total airborn mass, and can be used as input for a
dispersion model.
The airborn mass may be partly vapour and partly liquid. If there is liquid in the cloud, it is
suggested to use a "Dense dispersion model".
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The program will take into account the fraction of this mass which is confined (See
Fraction of flammable cloud confined).
An important result of the BLEVE fireball models is the calculation of the amount of mass
which is involved in the BLEVE phenomenon.
Depending on the temperature of the pressurized liquefied gas, the Flash fraction will change.
For LNG for instance storage temperatures below -150 dgC will imply that only a small
fraction of the PLG will actually be superheated if the vessel will break. Based on empirical
information, the mass that will actually take part of the rapid evaporation is taken as 3 times
the (adiabatic) flash of the storage vessel.
This field is only required for "Decomposition of materials" as cause of the vessels failure.
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If the vessel is emptied at time tempty before time t (tempty < t) all the outputs that should
be calculated at t will have been calculated at tempty. A warning will be generated to inform
the user about the emptying of the vessel and the time tempty at which this occurred.
The total mass released is calculated by integrating the mass flow rate vs time data at
each time step.
where
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If in a given location the effect duration is lower than the exposure duration (the passage
time of the toxic cloud is around 60s and the user chose an exposure duration of 1800s)
EFFECTS will internally rearrange the exposure duration so there is not a loss of accuracy
in the result of the integration process.
Example
The exposure duration is a powerful tool to model evacuation or sheltering. Say, a release
happens and people can find shelter after 10 minutes. If we assume that people can find
100% shelter inside houses we can model this as follows:
1. Set the start of exposure to zero
2. Set the exposure duration to the time that people can find shelter (600s)
In this case the model starts the exposure at t = zero, which means that people close to
the source of release will suffer from the effects but people further away from the release
will be exposed to lower concentrations because the cloud has not reached them yet. All
these are taken into account by the model.
NOTE 1: Different methods of applying this exposure duration are possible, see "exposure
duration based on" parameter.
NOTE 2: By using the option "perform toxic indoors calculation" the dispersion model can
take into account that people inside houses will still be exposed to (lower) concentrations.
NOTE 3: For heat radiation, a dedicated "heat exposure duration" parameter is used, which
is default 20 seconds, because the human reaction to intensive heat radiation is much
quicker.
5.5.334 Toxic Exposure Duration based on
1. Based on time until sheltering (starting to count at t=start exposure after release, default 0
sec)
3. Based on limiting the release duration itself (no real limit for exposure)
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By default, it is assumed that the exposure is limited due to the fact that people will seek for
shelter (approach 1). In this case the maximum time exposure time will be limited to this Time
Exposure duration, starting at t start exposure (default 0 sec after release).
However since a (semi continuous) toxic cloud will need a specific time to arrive at a
location Xd, the arrival time of the cloud can be different for every location Xd. Since the
reaction of people (seeking shelter) may be triggered by the smell of the toxic, a more
conservative approach would be to start counting the exposure when the cloud arrives.
(This is also the method as referred to in the Purple book.)
To take this effect into account it is also possible to select the "time limit for cloud
exposure" method.
The last method is by limiting the release duration. This approach is used by the Dutch
BEVI guidelines. Note that if a continuous release is selected (Neutral gas dispersion
model), the release itself will be forced into a "semi continuous"mode, and the release
duration will be maximized to the entered value for "exposure duration"
5.5.335 Toxic Inhalation Heigth
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outflow.
After a sudden depressurization, the liquid in the vessel will flash, and due to the presence
of vapour bubbles in the tank the liquid will expand. If the liquid level reaches the hole in the
vessel or pipeline, a two-phase outflow in the shape of a churn or a bubbly flow will occur.
During the blow-down the amount of liquid may decrease so that the swelled liquid level will
drop and pure vapour outflow may become apparent. This is the point of time the two-
phase flow changes into a vapour outflow. Next time step the model switches to the gas
release model. The calculation restarts with the vessel conditions at the moment of the
switch.
TurbulentFreeJetPressure
Value that determines the pressure above which a turbulent free jet will occur, the default is
200000 Pa (2 bar).
This value is used to determine which model should be called first when calculating a gas
release when it is connected to a dispersion program. Above 2 bar, the turbulent free jet
model is called while below 2 bar, the gas release model (no jet) is called.
Type of calculation
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Combo box where the user can choose the time range of the time-dependent graphs and
the time at which the time-dependent outputs will be calculated:
1. Calculate until specified time: model runs until a specific time given in the
input box Maximum Release Duration. Calculation ends at this provided maximum
duration
2. Calculation until device is empty: model runs until the pressure at the exit
of the pipeline or vessel is equal to the atmospheric pressure (Ambient pressure =
101325 N/m 2). At that moment the vessel is considered to be empty, since no more
chemical will be released.
Type of confinement
Combo Box where the two different types of circular pool fires are shown (confined and
unconfined)
Churn flow
Increasing flow velocity breaks down the slug flow bubbles and leads to an unstable
regime. Flow is of an oscillatory nature.
Bubbly flow
Liquid paths are continuous and contain a dispersion of bubbles. The gas or vapour
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bubbles are of approximate uniform size. Void fractions range from the extreme case of a
single isolated bubble in a large container to the quasi continuum flow of foam. Different
bubble shapes and trajectories can occur as a result of the interactions between forces
due to surface tension, viscosity, inertia and buoyancy.
The expected regime of two-phase flow has to be selected: bubbly flow or churn flow.
Unfortunately, no general applicable criterion exists, which could support this choice. Two
governing parameters are liquid dynamic viscosity and surface tension. The DIERS
literature suggests that when the dynamic viscosity is below 0.1 Pa.s the flow regime will
be churn-turbulent; otherwise it will be bubbly. However, for liquids with viscosity well below
0.1 Pa.s, it is known that reduction of the surface tension leads to foamy bubble flow. The
value at which this phenomenon occurs depends on the particular liquid.
The assumption that gives the most conservative result is bubble flow, as this yields the
largest amount of discharged pressurised liquefied gas.
Combo Box where the two different type of flow of the jet are shown:
- Choked flow
- Unchoked flow.
Choked flow is also denoted as critical flow, the speed of the outflow of the gas is so fast
(becomes critical in the sense that it reaches the speed of sound) due to the outflow
conditions compared to the ambient conditions, that the outflow becomes choked.
Unchoked flow is when the speed of the outflow is lower than the critical speed.
Type of pool
As of version 10, the pool fire model in EFFECTS is capable of calculation heat radiation for
various shapes of the pool fire:
2. Rimfire (a ring shaped fire), requires the definition of a (outer) diameter, and width of the
rim. (This means that inner diameter = Outer diameter - [2 x width])
4. Polygonal shape, this allows the user to actually draw the shape on a map, for example the
use the boundaries of a tank pit to describe the shape of the pool.
Note that these choice only apply for "confined releases" because a spreading pool based on
a specific release rate will always need to be circular !
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RISKCURVES currently only support circular pool fires because other shapes would require
recalculation for every wind-direction.
The heat radiation from these arbitrary shaped pool fires are calculated using a discretised
radiation method, which is described in the "poolfire model improvements" document in the
installation directory.
Type of release
Combo Box where the type of release can be chosen.
-
Release through a hole in a vessel.
-
Release from vessel trough (a hole in) pipe.
The releases with which the neutral gas dispersion model can deal are:
- Instantaneous (when the whole content is released in a very short time)
- Semi-continuous (for finite time releases)
- Continuous (for continuous releases like stacks, chimneys etc)
The releases with which the dense gas dispersion model can deal are:
- Evaporating pool
- Horizontal jet release
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The evaporating pool and horizontal and vertical jet releases are semi-continuous releases;
no continuous release can be calculated for a dense gas release.
WARNING!
Semi-continuous releases require complex calculations and can be very time consuming,
especially when the explosive calculations are performed.
Possible choices are spreading or spreading in bunds. Note that in either case, the model will
calculate a pool radius versus time. However, in case of a bunded pool, the maximum area is
limited.
The type of subsoil on which the pool is spreading. Several different classes are supplied
here where the type determines the heat transfer rate.
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equivalency:
- Based upon energy
- Based upon mass
The TNT equivalency is used to obtain the mass of TNT to be considered for the explosion
equivalent to the mass of chemical in the considered scenario.
In the "based upon mass" equivalency, TNT mass is obtained directly through the product
of the chemical mass by the equivalency factor. In the "based upon energy" equivalency,
TNT mass is obtained through the product of the chemical mass by the equivalency factor
and the ratio of combustion energies of TNT and the considered chemical.
This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, the typical diameter of obstacles
inside a congested area.
However, due to the stochastic nature of the weather conditions, there is a degree of
uncertainty in the exact location of this concentration contour. To have a more conservative
approach, some users prefer to work with 50% LEL concentrations for flammability.
By selecting this "Yes" to this "Use 50% LEL concentration" the contours presented will be
based on this reduced concentration. When using the GAME method to derive the overlap of
the flammable cloud with a congestion area, this overlap calculation will also be based on
50% LEL concentration. Note that the explosive MASS within the cloud will always be based
on "mass above 100% LEL" which can be limited to "Mass between LEL and UEL
concentration"
This choice allows to extend the reporting of the dispersion model with presentation of a time
dependent concentration grid.
If this choice is set to "yes", the map view will include a dynamic concentration presentation
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Instead of defining a blast strength by its "Multi Energy" curve number, the blast strength can
be calculated using the GAME correlations.
If these correlations are used, the maximum overpressure will be calculated using typical
congestion parameters like volume blockage ratio and average diameter of the obstacles
according to the formulations below:
In which:
Sl = Laminar Burning velocity of the chemical [m/s] which is a substance dependent property
taken from the chemical database
Especially in case a congestion area has been defined, this method allows to calculate
overpressure based on overlap with a flammable cloud.
This parameter is used in the calculation of explosive mass. By default, it is assumed that all
mass above LEL (lower Explosion Limit)concentration will take part of the ignition. However,
although mixing with air is heavily enforced during ignition, one may argue that mass above
UEL (Upper Explosion Limit) will not ignite, because it is too rich.
To deal with this situation, users can define to either use all mass above LEL, or just the
mass between LEL and UEL
Use this parameter to choose which 'period' of the five time periods that are calculated is
considered to be representative.
Background
The Purple Book, paragraph 4.6 describes the coupling between outflow models and vapour
cloud dispersion models.
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According tho the description there, EFFECTS approximates the time-varying source term
into five discrete time segments with constant outflow conditions by dividing the total mass
released evenly over these 5 time segments.This purple book steps graph of the rate is
always available in the list of graphs
Therefore, it is recommended (and the default behaviour of the program) to choose "First ..."
for flammable substances, and "Second ..." for toxic substances.
Is a typical diameter in the range of droplet diameters occurring in the spray of a two phase
outflow.
This free text field can be used to add a description, for instance about the origin of the
information provided in the input fields.
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Ventilation ratio
This is the frequency with which the whole air volume of a room gets renewed.
Vessel Type
Combo Box where the three different vessel types for which calculations can be performed
are shown. Those are:
- Vertical cylinder
- Horizontal cylinder
- Sphere
The shape of the vessel is important in for the outflow models to calculate the evolution of
the liquid height, and so the hydrostatic pressure, inside the vessel.
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Vessel Volume
This is the total volume of the considered vessel.
View factor
The estimation of the heat radiation surrounding a fire requires the characterization of the
flame geometry. The computation of the heat intensity at a give location around a fire
requires the computation of the geometric view factor. The current EFFECTS
implementation contains the calculation algorithms for several flame geometries as
described by Mudan in reference [Mudan, K.S., Geometric View Factors for Thermal
Radiation Hazard Assessment, Fire Safety Journal 12, 1987, pg. 89-96].
BLEVE model
The view factor at a distance X from the fire ball is calculated as: Fview = (RadiusFireBall/
X)2
Chamberlain model
For the specific case of a jet fire the expressions for a tilted cylinder are implemented.
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This parameter defines, when using the GAME correlations, the amount of free space that is
available for expansion of a burning cloud. The higher the value, the less possibility for
expansion, leading to more severe overpressure effects.
The parameter should be estimated based on the total occupied space by obstacles (fraction
of volume), which can be equipment, support construction, pipes, vessels, but also trees,
bushes or cars on a car park.
Water temperature
The average yearly temperature of the water that you want to use for pool evaporation on
water calculations. In general, the higher the temperature the larger the evaporation rate and
consequences.
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This is the width of a horizontal section of the cloud, whose limits are defined by the LEL
value. In other words, it's the width of the contour in this section with LEL as threshold
value. For neutral gases, this horizontal section is taken at the height of the source. For
dense gases, it is taken at ground level.
Time t is the time of study entered by the user, time tmem is the time at which the
explosive mass is maximal, and time tmac is the time at which the area of the LEL-contour
is maximal.
In case of a continuous release, this is the steady state length of the cloud between LEL at
the height mentioned above.
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Whenever a congestion area or vulnerable area has been defined, the damage to this area
can be calculated for a worst case situation, but also for one specific direction of the wind.
In case of "worst case situation "the calculation will search for the maximum overlap of a
damage effect with the defined area.
The other possible choice is "defined by model" which implies that only the wind direction as
defined in the damage model will be used to evaluate damage.
If a dispersion is proceeded by a turbulent jet expansion phase, the actual start of passive
dispersion may be shifted in X location and if the jet was pointing upwards, even at an
elevated level. This can be dealt with by defining an X or Z offset for the start of dispersion.
X, Y - coordinates of release
GIS coordinates of the release point. Only visible for products with GIS capabilities. Not to
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be confused with Xd and Yd which are the point of study (where the effect is calculated).
Coordinate of the release in vertical direction. 0 (zero) height is at ground level. Not to be
confused with Zd, which is the height of the point of study (where the effect is calculated).
Plume model
This is the height above ground level of the stack where the gas is released. The reference
0 height is the ground level.
The failure frequency for the scenario, expressed per year. Although this parameter has a
default, it is highly recommended to modify this according to the actual failure frequency.
The probability of a Bleve event taken place. A BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour
Explosion) can only occur with a instantaneous release and may be one of the immediate
ignition events (other immediate ignition event can be a poolfire). This parameter only has
influence in case of multiple phenomena and is only applied in case of instantaneous two
phase releases of flammable materials.
When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.
For a heat consequence risk, it can be chosen to use either a Heat radiation intensity level
(kW/m2 unit) or a heat dose unit (kW/m2^1.33*time)
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When using "Consequence risk contours" option of a calculation set, specific thresholds for
heat radiation, overpressure and toxicity will have to be set.
For a toxicity risk, it can be chosen to use either a concentration level (kg/m3, ppm, vol%, mg/
m3 ect) or a toxic dose unit (consentration^n*time) . Note that when using a dose, the
chemcial must be selected because the n probit will be fixed.
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It also determines the resolution of any societal risk maps, if these are calculated.
For standard situations, a cell size of 50 mtr is advised, however, if small scale
phenomena are involved (like jet fire of 20 mtr) a smaller cell size could be chosen to
improve the accuracy of the calculation. However, using smaller cells will increase
calculation time and size of the resulting project files.
The probability that a delayed ignition (flash fire and/or vapour cloud explosion) event takes
place.
Note that the sum of Direct ignition and Delayed ignition does NOT have to be one:
The probability that a direct (immediate) ignition event takes place. This parameter is only
relevant for scenario's in which multiple phenomena (poolfire and vapour cloud explosion,
jetfire and vapour cloud explosion) are possible (combined models). In case of damage
definitions, the calculation is restricted to a single event: an explosion damage definition
already assumes that the explosion takes place.
By default a value of 0.8 is used, but this value can be altered, because it is dependent of the
type chemical (flammability) or release rate.
Some guidelines, like the Dutch BEVI, give a table where this value is dependent of the
release rate and flammability classification of the substance.
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This is an option to include the calculation of consequence risk contours. Note that IF this
option is activated, the consequence risk levels need to be set in the corresponding
calculation setting.
If societal risk calculation is included in the project, there is an option to include the calculation
of societal risk maps, which is a visualization method to illustrate the level and range of the
societal risk.
By default, the transport societal risk will be expressed per km of route length and wil have an
FN graph per transport route, and not per calculation set.
However, to have an idea of the contribution of transport scenarios on the societal risk, it can
be useful to include the transport scenarios in the standard FN curve. This can be done by
selecting YES in this input field.
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The base frequency is the total frequency for daytime and nighttime. Users can define
activities to take place only at daytime hours (fraction daytime = 100%), only at nighttime
(fraction = 0%) or any other value. The value entered here will determine which part of the
total frequency is used for daytime situation.
This input box is only available if "frequency equally distributed day/night" has a "No" as input.
Given the occurrence of a vapour cloud explosion (which is regarded upon as a delayed
ignition), this event may have overpressure effects. This parameter describes which fraction
of those events will have overpressure effects.
Note different from other QRA tools, TNO assumes that all delayed ignitions will have a flash
fire phenomenon, and only a part of these flash fires will ALSO have overpressure effects.
This implies that given a delayed ignition, a flammable cloud drifting away from the source, a
delayed flash fire will always occur, and in a fraction of the situations this includes
overpressure phenomena.
A scenario frequency might deviate from "standardized" situations, due to risk reduction
measures, dedicated situation etc.
By using a correction factor instead of adjusting the base frequency, adjustments can be
made more traceable. This value is used for Stationary Equipment, for transport equipment
the correction factor can be modified per location, leading to a third column in the route
definition.
This factor is used to influence the inter-accident distance during societal risk calculations.
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The above example illustrates a road transport. RISKCURVES will generate accident points
and calculate the size of the gas clouds.
In the left situation the accident points are separated too far and therefore the calculation
misses an important object because the clouds can not reach it. In the right in situation, more
accident points are generated and the object is hit.
The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that possible accident points are located 50 meter
from each other. When using scenario's with maximum effect distances much lower than 50
mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.
When calculating individual risk contours along a transport route, contours can become
caterpillar shaped instead of a smooth line. This is caused when the inter-accident distance
used to calculate individual risk is too large. The factor defaults to 50 mtr which means that
possible accident points are located 50 meter from each other. When using scenario's with
effect distances lower than 50 mtrs, is is advised to narrow the inter accident distance.
When defining population by using population polygons, there is a possibility to define specific
areas as "temporary" population, allowing to associate a specific "utilisation fraction" to this
area.
Apart from the "utilisation fraction" , the part of the time that this population is present, for both
day and night, these temporary polygons can also have a dedicated "inside fraction" because
this population might not be protected by buildings, but be "unprotected outside".
Note: THIS IS NOT TO BE USED FOR STANDARD SITUATIONS. When using many (say
more than 10) temporary polygons that can be exposed to the same event (when they are
close to one another, so within the potential lethality footprint of a single event), this procedure
can get time consuming because all potential combinations of these areas need to be
evaluated!!. As an example, just for three temporary population areas we need to evaluate: A
and B and C exposed, A and B exposed, A and C exposed, B and C exposed, only A, only B ,
only C, and no area (just base population) exposed, where every combination has its own
probability of occurrence!
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Technical backgrounds 329
However, in some occasions, it might be required to use fixed level within every contour. This
can be done by using a "blockmode" distribution in a damage definition, resulting in fixed
levels within the defined contours (see illustration below).
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330 RISKCURVES
By default the toxic exposure is limited to 1800 seconds (half an hour). If the actual passage
time of a cloud is shorter, the dose is calculated based on the actual concentration time
profile
Depending on the latitude of the country where the QRA is to be performed, the daytime/
nighttime ratio will differ.
Since the QRA calculation will be based on the usage of daytime / nighttime populations, and
distinguished daytime/nighttime weather conditions, one needs to define the fraction of
daytime situation.
Note: In previous RISKCURVES versions this was incorporated within the meteorological
definition, the current meteorological distribution is based on 100% daytime total and 100%
nighttime total.
This is shown in the left drawing. Two clouds for a 30 wind direction (=360/12) miss the
important object resulting in risk underestimation. In the right drawing, 15 wind direction (=24
wind directions) were chosen resulting in a hit of the object.
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Technical backgrounds 331
About the same explanation as for FN calculations holds for individual risk calculations. Again,
a hypothetical person could be missed, especially where he stands far away from the cloud
and the cloud tip is relatively small when compared with the sector circumference. In general
when this factor is increased (values up to 20 are useful) the individual risk will decrease as
Riskcurves will calculate more accurately the risk caused by overlap/underlap of a cloud
compared with the sector width. The drawback is more calculation duration. More narrow
clouds have a smaller risk than wide clouds which is obvious as wide clouds can overlap to
adjacent sectors. This methodology takes it all into account at a value of 20.
A risk calculation can be performed while skipping the societal risk calculation, which will be
much faster. This will also eliminate the need to enter population data.
Probabilty FlashAndExplosion
In a gas cloud explosion, the flashfire may be accompanied by overpressure effects. This
parameter determines the probability that flash AND explosion occur. Default is 0.4
Utilisation fraction is a property of temporary polygons: it is the part of the time that this
population is present, which can be defined or both day and night situation.
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Appendices 333
6 Appendices
The following chemicals are included in the standard YAWS database of EFFECTS/
RISKCURVES:
Acetic acid
Acetonitrile
Acrolein
Acrylonitrile
Air
Allylamine
Allylchloride
Ammonia
Arsine
Benzene
Bromine
Butadiene (1,3,)
Butane (n-)
Butene (1,)
Butylamine (n-)
Butylamine (s-)
Butylamine (t-)
Carbon monoxide
Carbondioxide
Carbondisulfide
Carbonic dichloride (phosgene)
Carbonyl fluoride
Chlorine
Chloroacetaldehyde
Chloroacetyl chloride
Chloroform
Chloroprene
Cumene
Cyanogen
Cyclohexane
Diborane
Dichloroethene (1,1,)
Dichloromethane
Dimethyl amine
Ethane
Ethene
Ethyl acrylate
Ethyl amine
Ethyl mercaptan
Ethylbenzene
Ethylene dichloride
Ethylene oxide
Ethyleneimine
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334 RISKCURVES
Fluorine
Formaldehyde
Formic acid
Gasoline
Hexafluoroacetone
Hydrazine
Hydrogen
Hydrogen bromide
Hydrogen chloride
Hydrogen cyanide
Hydrogen fluoride
Hydrogen peroxide
Hydrogen sulfide
Isobutyl amine
Isobutylene
Isoprene
Isopropyl amine
Ketene
Methane
Methanol
Methyl acrylate
Methyl amine
Methyl bromide
Methyl chloride
Methyl iodide
Methyl mercaptan
Methyl methacrylate
Nitro propane (2,)
Nitrogen
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrous oxide
Oxygen
Pentane (n-)
Perchloryl fluoride
Phosphine
Propane
Propene
Propyl mercaptan
Propylamine (n-)
Propylene oxide
Styrene
Sulphur dioxide
Sulphur trioxide
Tetrachloroethylene
Tetrahydrofuran
Toluene
Trimethyl amine
Water
Xylene (m-)
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Appendices 335
In case of reproducible situation, you might send an email to the help-desk, describing the
actions you performed that raised this error.
Note that the help-desk will not provide support for internal Windows errors, or errors that
cannot be reproduced on a standard, clean, system.
Apart from the details information provided in the message, it is very often useful to include
the .RISKX projects file that has triggered the error as an attachment to the email .
It is strongly advised to describe the circumstances under which the error happened.
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336 RISKCURVES
Pool evaporation
1) When evaporation is higher than the mass flow into the pool, the pool thickness decreases
until the minimum pool thickness (surface roughness) is reached. After that, the pool will
shrink in size.
For pools in bunds on water, that model has not been implemented completely; for those
pools, after the maximum area (bund area) has been reached, the pool thickness keeps
decreasing until it is zero, while the pool area is constant. (artifact 35366)
2) The transition from non-boiling to boiling for cryogenic substances works for spills on land,
but not on water. The calculation stops when the boiling temperature is reached. The
workaround here is to set the initial temperature of the spilled substance equal (or slightly
higher than) to the boiling temperature. (artifact 32938)
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Appendices 337
Combined models
For continuous release of liquefied gases, the heavy gas dispersion model always uses the
horizontal jet as source mode, even if the pool evaporation is dominant relative to the spray
release.
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Index 339
-D-
-C- Damage (general description) at Xd 221
Calculate Heat Risk by 176, 323 Damage definition 173
Calculate toxic contour by 213 Damage to brick houses at Xd 222
Calculate Toxic Risk by 176, 324 Damage to structures (empirical) at Xd 222
Calculation Set 44, 85, 155 Damage to typical American-style houses at Xd
Calculation Settings 44, 155 223
day month year number 223
CalculationSet definition 85 Default mixingheight 125, 224
Case description 213 Define population by 224
Cause of vessel failure 213 Density gas at pipe exit at time t 224
Cell size population grids 324 Diameter of expanded jet 224
Cell size Risk grids 156, 324 Diameter of expanded jet at time t 225
Chance delayed ignition 87, 325 DIERS top venting (vessel only) 190
Chance direct ignition 87, 325 Discharge coefficient 225
Chemcial Mixtures 33 Display units 121
Chemical database manager 132 Distance from center of the pool (Xd) 225
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340 RISKCURVES
Distance from centre mass of confined explosive cloud Fraction explosion phenomenon 87, 327
to point of study 226 Fraction of CO2 in Atmosphere 162, 236
Distance from centre mass of the cloud at which Fraction of flammable cloud confined 236
threshold overpressure is reached 226 Fraction of liberated energy going to kinetic energy
Distance from centre of vessel (Xd) 226 237
Distance from release (Xd) 227 Fraction of mortality at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 237
Distance perpendicular to wind direction (Yd) 228 Fraction of the flame covered by soot 237
Distance to plume touch-down 228 Fragment distribution 238
Distance to toxic dose D or fraction of mortality F Frequency correction factor 87, 327
228 Frequency equally distributed 87, 327
Dose at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 229 Froude Number 238
Dose reduction at t 229 Frustum lift off height 238
Duration of the fire 229
Duration of the release 229
-G-
-E- GAME equivalent curve number
GAME expansion type 239
239
Editing constant properties 137 Gas release from a long pipeline 188
Editing properties of chemicals 137 Gas release from a vessel or pipe 187
Editing temperature-dependent properties 137 Geo-referencing 147
Environment parameters 162 Graph Area of the cloud above LEL at release level vs.
Environment settings 129 Time 239
Equipment 44, 165 Graph Circle circumscribed to maximum distance to
Equipment definition 86 threshold concentration at Zd 240
Equivalency factor 230 Graph Concentration Contour Plot 240
Equivalent TNT mass 230 Graph Concentration in the plume centre-line vs
Error messages 334 Distance from stack 240
Evacuation time 230 Graph Concentration vs Axial distance at Yd 241
Exit vapor mass fraction 231 Graph Concentration vs. Down-wind distance at time t
Exit vapour mass fraction at time t 231 and (Yd, Zd) 241
Expansion type 231 Graph Concentration vs. Time at (Xd, Yd, Zd) 241
Expert Parameter settings 125 Graph display panel 92
Explosive Mass 231 Graph Distance from rupture to interface vs Time
241
Explosive mass at time t 232
Graph Dynamic pressure vs Distance 242
Exposure duration 232
Graph Explosive mass vs. Time 242
Exposure duration to heat radiation 233
Graph Filling degree vs Time 243
Extrapolated time to empty pipeline 233
Graph Fraction of mortality vs. Down-wind distance at
(Yd, Zd) 243
-F- Graph functionality 93
Graph Height of the liquid inside the vessel vs Time
Filling degree (liquid volume/tank volume) 233 243
Filling degree at time t 233 Graph Jet velocity vs Axial distance at Yd 243
Fixed indoors outdoors toxic ratio 158, 234 Graph Mass flow rate vs Time 244
Flame path length 234 Graph Mass of liquid remaining in the vessel vs Time
Flame temperature 234 244
Flame tilt 235 Graph Mass of vapour remaining in the vessel vs Time
Formula 137 244
Formula ID 137 Graph Maximum concentration vs. Down-wind
distance at (Yd, Zd) 244
Fraction combustion heat radiated 235
Graph Maximum range contour plot 245
Fraction confined mass in Multi energy explosion
method 125, 236 Graph Overpressure contour plot 245
Fraction daytime hours 87, 326 Graph Overpressure vs Distance 245
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Index 341
Graph Plume height vs Distance from stack 245 Initial height of the liquid above release point 258
Graph Plume radius vs Distance from stack 246 Initial jet pressure 258
Graph Positive phase duration vs Distance 246 Initial jet temperature 258
Graph Pressure at pipe exit vs Time 246 Initial liquid mass fraction 259
Graph Pressure impulse vs Distance 247 Initial mass in vessel 259
Graph Quality outflow at pipe exit vs Time 247 Initial plume density 259
Graph selection box 99 Initial pressure in pipeline 259
Graph Temperature at pipe exit vs Time 247 Initial pressure in vessel 259
Graph Temperature vs Axial distance 247 Initial speed of fragment 260
Graph Total mass released vs Time 248 Initial temperature in pipeline 260
Graph Toxic Contour Plot 248 Initial temperature in vessel 260
Graph Toxic dose vs. Down-wind distance at (Yd, Zd) Inside fraction 260
248 Installation of the software drivers for the dongle 14
Graph Vessel pressure vs Time 248 Integration tolerance 260
Graph Vessel temperature vs Time 249 Inter accident distance 156, 328
Graph Void fraction at pipe exit vs Time 249 Inter accident distance FN 156, 327
Grid resolution 249 Introduction 13
Ground / Surface/ Bund temperature 162, 249 Inverse Monin-Obukhov Length (1/L) 261
Is the vessel elevated? 261
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342 RISKCURVES
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-U- -X-
Uninstalling the software 15 X, Y - coordinates of release 322
Upgrading 17
Use 50% LEL 314
Use Game overpressure 314 -Z-
Use mass between LEL and UEL 315
Z - coordinate (height) of release 323
Use which representative step 315
User comment 316
Utilisation fraction 331
-V-
Vapour release from vessel or pipe 190
Ventilation rate 158, 317
Ventilation rate at daytime 317
Ventilation rate at nighttime 317
Ventilation ratio 158, 317
Vessel emptying duration 317
Vessel Type 317
Vessel Volume 318
View factor 318
Viewing graphs of the toxicity parameters 137
Volume Blockage Ratio 319
Volumetric fraction of chemical at release point 319
Vulnerability parameters 158
Vulnerability settings 128
-W-
Water temperature 162, 319
Weight ratio of CO2/chemical 319
Weight ratio of H2O/chemical 320
Weight ratio of HCl/chemical 320
Weight ratio of NO2/chemical 320
Weight ratio of SO2/chemical 320
What is RISKCURVES 20
What's new 29
Which input 21
Which results 21
Which tasks 20
Width of cloud (between LEL) at time tmac 320
Width of frustum base 320
Width of frustum tip 321
Width of toxic contour 322
Wind comes from 322
Wind direction for damage 322
Wind speed at 10m height 322
World file 147
2016 TNO