The role of environmental science

in societal decision-making
Yann Clough (CEC, Lund University)
yann.clough@cec.lu.se
Slides at yannclough.weebly.com/downloads

Image Copyright Ivan Hall

Handling environmental problems

Small technical Huge challenges

problems
Simple technical Transformative
fixes societal change
Photos VASyd, Sydsvenskan, UNEP, Takkk
Environmental Societal decision-
sciences making
Environmental Societal decision-
sciences making

Which role can I

Concepts take as an
developed in STS environmental
(Science and scientist given a
particular
Technology decision-making
Studies) context?
Environmental Societal decision-
sciences making

Which role can I

Concepts take as an
developed in STS environmental
(Science and scientist given a
particular
Technology decision-making
Studies) context?

But first: some definitions!

Societal decision-making = Policy making
A group of people committing to a particular course of
action (governments, businesses, interest groups,
neighbourhood associations, families)

Photos uni-goettingen.de, Henri Montgomery

Societal decision-making = Policy making
A group of people committing to a particular course of
action (governments, businesses, interest groups,
neighbourhood associations, families)

Resources are limiting

Photos uni-goettingen.de, Henri Montgomery

Societal decision-making = Policy making
A group of people committing to a particular course of
action (governments, businesses, interest groups,
neighbourhood associations, families)

Politics
Process of bargaining, negotiation and compromise
determining who gets what, when and how

Photos uni-goettingen.de, Henri Montgomery

 Societal decision-making = Policy making
A group of people committing to a particular course of
action (governments, businesses, interest groups,
neighbourhood associations, families)

Politics
Process of bargaining, negotiation and compromise
determining who gets what, when and how

What are the steps in policy-making?

Photos uni-goettingen.de, Henri Montgomery
 Identifying issues
and when can
Policy analysis and
environmental science
identification of options
contribute?
Consultation to test
analysis

Decision

Implementation

Evaluation
 Identifying issues
Identifying issues
Policy analysis and
identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis
interest group representation overhaul of existing ineffective
policy
Decision
Scientific evidence, communication and
awareness raising can play a major role
Implementation

Evaluation
 Identifying issues Policy analysis &
identification of options
Policy analysis and
identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis

Opportunities for science? Yes but...

Decision
Contingency on other factors!!!
Values!
Beliefs!
Implementation Costs!

Evaluation
Images from: nseaum and climateandsecurity.org
 Identifying issues Consultation and coordination

Policy analysis and

identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis
Consultation inside and outside the government
Coordination between agencies

Decision
Key players are those most affected,
*but scientists may be invited as

Implementation external experts

Evaluation
Photos by Kaisuh Tai and UNICEF
 Identifying issues

Policy analysis and

Decision
identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis

Made through executive government or cabinet

Decision

Implementation

Evaluation
Photograph by Pui Shan Chan February 2009
 Identifying issues
Implementation
Policy analysis and
identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis

Decision Science can guide on technical aspects,

e.g. monitoring

Implementation

Evaluation
 Identifying issues

Evaluation
Policy analysis and
identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis

Gauge the effects of a policy and adjust or rethink

Decision the design of the policy

Major role for environmental sciences

Implementation

Evaluation
Figure from Miteva et al. 2015
 Identifying issues
Policy Cycle!

Policy analysis and Evaluation

identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis

Decision Gauge the effects of a policy and adjust or rethink

the design of the policy

Implementation Major role for environmental sciences

Evaluation
Figure from Miteva et al. 2015
 Identifying issues
Policy Cycle!

Policy analysis and Evaluation

identification of options

Consultation to test
analysis

Decision Gauge the effects of a policy and adjust or rethink

the design of the policy

Implementation Major role for environmental sciences

Which roles for policy-relevant science in
evaluation, issue identific. & policy analysis?
Evaluation
Figure from Miteva et al. 2015
 Pure scientist
Focuses only on facts and has no
interaction with the policy maker

Modes of science-policy engagement

Pielke (2007)
 Pure scientist
Focuses only on facts and has no
interaction with the policy maker

Science arbiter
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker

Modes of science-policy engagement

Pielke (2007)
 Pure scientist Issue advocate
Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker

Science arbiter
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker

Modes of science-policy engagement

Pielke (2007)
 Pure scientist Issue advocate
Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker

Science arbiter Honest broker of

Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Modes of science-policy engagement

Pielke (2007)
 Pure scientist Issue advocate
Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker

Science arbiter Honest broker of

Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Modes of science-policy engagement

Pielke (2007)
 Pure scientist
Focuses only on facts and has no
interaction with the policy maker

Ahlstrm et al. 2017 ERL

http://www.icos-sweden.se/ Tayleur et al. 2015 GCB http://big4-project.eu

1998-2004

Dutch
Wadden Sea
 Conflict between shellfish fishery and
migratory bird conservation
(1) Cockles and (2) Cockles and
mussels is winter mussel stocks very
food for birds variable

(2) In conditions of already low shellfish

stocks:

Shellfish fishing Population crash Starvation

Hanssen et al. 2009, Photos from Rijkswaterstaat & Ecomare, Figure from Piersma et al. 2001, EVA II final report
 Project EVA II : conduct science to revise
the food reservation scheme & make
stakeholders agree using the increased
knowledge

Set of evaluation questions

Steering committee (1) What are the ecological impacts of shellfish
fisheries?
(2) Do the policies implemented achieve their
Scientific Audit objective?
Committee (3) Are the effects of shellfish fisheries within
2003 - 2004 the boundaries dictated by the EU-
objectives
(4) Which counter-measures should be taken?
Improved knowledge

Own flowchart after Hanssen et al. (2009); Illustrations from EVA II report
 Project EVA II : conduct science to revise
the food reservation scheme & align
stakeholders views using the increased
knowledge

Set of evaluation questions

Steering committee (1) What are the ecological impacts of shellfish
fisheries?
(2) Do the policies implemented achieve their
Scientific Audit objective?
Committee (3) Are the effects of shellfish fisheries within
2003 - 2004 the boundaries dictated by the EU-
objectives
(4) Which counter-measures should be taken?
Improved knowledge

Policy Advisory Com. Improved policy

Reduced conflict
Nat.cons.
Fisheries
organis.

Own flowchart after Hanssen et al. (2009); Illustrations from EVA II report
 End result
2-year process
In 2004, the adaptive management policy
was abandoned, not revised!
Completely unrelated policy was adopted
Not based on the science generated
Conflicts prevail between fisheries and
nature organisations

Hanssen et al. (2009); EVA II report; Photo from ecomare.nl

 Coastal ecosystems complex and variable
Time for experimental studies limited
2-year process Strong personal opinions (issue
advocacy)

No scientific consensus
Uncertainty not reduced enough

Hanssen et al. (2009); EVA II report

 Coastal ecosystems complex and variable
Time for experimental studies limited
2-year process Strong personal opinions (issue
advocacy)
No scientific consensus
Uncertainty not reduced enough
Single policy considered
Formulation of alternatives left for the end
No evaluation of jointly formulated policy
alternatives

Policy irrelevance

Hanssen et al. (2009); EVA II report

 Coastal ecosystems complex and variable
Time for experimental studies limited
2-year process Strong personal opinions (issue
advocacy)
No scientific consensus
Uncertainty not reduced enough
Single policy considered
Formulation of alternatives left for the end
No evaluation of jointly formulated policy
alternatives

Was environmental
Policyscience
irrelevanceforced to

play the wrong role?

2003 -2004
Hanssen et al. (2009); EVA II report
 Pure scientist
Focuses only on facts and has no
interaction with the policy maker

Science arbiter
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker
 Pure scientist Issue advocate
Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker

Science arbiter Honest broker of

Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker
 Scientist

Demonstration
of scientific
integrity

Ivory tower

Policymaker

Image from conditionallyaccepted.com

 The linear model -
information deficit model

does science
identifies Formulates
or reviews
problem policy
literature

Assumes that, in the time span relevant for policymaking:

(1) More science reduces scientific uncertainty
(2) Lower scientific uncertainty -> lower political
uncertainty
McNie (2007)
1) Values

Scientific Beliefs Favoured

knowledge decision

Uncertainty

Contested values and high uncertainty reduce effect of increased

scientific knowledge
1) Values

Scientific Beliefs Favoured

knowledge decision

Uncertainty

Contested values and high uncertainty reduce effect of increased

scientific knowledge

2) Uncertainty often not reducible within the available time-frame!

1) Values

Scientific Beliefs Favoured

knowledge decision

Uncertainty

Contested values and high uncertainty reduce effect of increased

scientific knowledge

2) Uncertainty often not reducible within the available time-frame!

False expectations about effectiveness of

additional science can waste time and block the
science-policy process
Handling environmental problems when

Simple Complex
 Handling environmental problems when

Values are shared

Low uncertainty

Benefits clearly outweigh

the costs

The remaining uncertainty

is reducible through
science

Simple Complex
 Handling environmental problems when

Values are shared Values are contested

Low uncertainty High uncertainty

Benefits clearly outweigh High costs

the costs

The remaining uncertainty The remaining uncertainty

is reducible through is to a large extent not
science reducible through science

Simple Complex
 Linear model Stakeholder model

Pure scientist
Focuses only on facts and has no
interaction with the policy maker

Need to
Science arbiter engage with
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker stakeholders!

Values are shared Values are contested

Low uncertainty High uncertainty
Benefits clearly outweigh the costs High costs
The remaining uncertainty is The remaining uncertainty not
reducible through science reducible through science

Simple Complex
 Linear model Stakeholder model

Pure scientist Issue advocate

Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker
Need to
Science arbiter engage
Honest withof
broker
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker stakeholders!
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Values are shared Values are contested

Low uncertainty High uncertainty
Benefits clearly outweigh the costs High costs
The remaining uncertainty is The remaining uncertainty not
reducible through science reducible through science

Simple Complex
 Linear model Stakeholder model

Pure scientist Issue advocate

Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker
Need to
Science arbiter engage
Honest withof
broker
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker stakeholders!
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Simple Complex
 Linear model Stakeholder model

Pure scientist Issue advocate

Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker
Need to
Science arbiter engage
Honest withof
broker
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker stakeholders!
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Simple Complex
 Linear model Stakeholder model

Pure scientist Issue advocate

Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker
Need to
Science arbiter engage
Honest withof
broker
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker stakeholders!
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Comment 1: Any scientist can have more

than one role but declaring it increases trust
Simple Complex
 Linear model Stakeholder model

Pure scientist Issue advocate

Focuses only on facts and has no Seeks to reduce the scope of
interaction with the policy maker choice available to the policy
maker
Need to
Science arbiter engage
Honest withof
broker
Answers specific factual questions
posed by the policy maker stakeholders!
policy options
Expand and clarify the scope of
the options to the policy maker

Comment 2: Trustworthyness is increased if

science arbiters and honest brokers are
groups of scientists / scientists + stakeholders
Simple (see IPCC, IPBES)Complex
Recap

1. Defined policy, politics

2. Policy-making cycle and opportunities for scientific
input
3. Case-study shellfish fisheries
4. Linear model and its very limited usefulness
5. All four roles - Pure scientist, Science arbiter, Issue
advocate and Honest brokers - are needed!
6. Contested values and uncertainty determine context
The role of environmental science
in societal decision-making
Yann Clough (CEC, Lund University)
yann.clough@cec.lu.se
Slides at yannclough.weebly.com/downloads

Image Copyright Ivan Hall

Further reading

Pielke, R.A. (2007) The Honest

Broker: Making Sense of Science
in Policy and Politics. Cambridge
University Press. 188 p.
Further reading

Pielke, R.A. (2007) The Honest Broker: Baron, N. (2010) Escape from
Making Sense of Science in Policy and the Ivory Tower. Island Press
Politics. Cambridge University Press. 188 p.
Thanks!
Questions?
Slides
yann.clough@cec.lu.se
Slides at yannclough.weebly.com/downloads

Further reading
Pielke, R.A. (2007) The Honest Baron, N. (2010) Escape from
Broker: Making Sense of Science the Ivory Tower. Island Press
in Policy and Politics. Cambridge
University Press. 188 p.

http://maxpixel.freegreatpicture.com/Wildlife-Catcher-Oystercatcher-Ave-Oyster-Bird-29025