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[client name deleted]
The ASEAN Ministerial Meeting and ASEAN Regional Forum meetings will start next
week. On this occasion, could you provide your assessment of these meetings? In
your view, what are the main issues that ASEAN members and their partners should
take into account? What is ASEAN's view of the role of the major powers? What do
the major powers expect from ASEAN at these meetings? Which role should/could
Vietnam play in building consensus in ASEAN as well as in bridging differences
between ASEAN and its partners?
ANSWER: The ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) is a meeting of ASEAN foreign
ministers. Its agenda is set by the work program mapped out by the previous AMM
and by proposals suggested by senior officials. The results of the AMM will be
presented to the ASEAN leaders’ summit later this year.
The main preoccupation of the AMM will be to advance the goal of creating an
ASEAN Community by 2015. The ASEAN Community rests on three pillars: political‐
security, economic and socio‐cultural. ASEAN has already approved a Road Map for
the ASEAN Community. The most important issues facing the present AMM will be
on further refining and implementing the ASEAN Charter. There are several areas
where there is broad agreement among members on certain issues but no
agreement on the specifics. For example, ASEAN has approved a disputes
settlement mechanism but has not reached consensus on how to proceed if a
member does not comply. The ASEAN Intergovernmental Committee on Human
Rights is another example where ASEAN members have reached general agreement
but have not yet reached consensus on how to proceed in detail. The AMM will
consider a work plan for the next five years.
The AMM will consider proposals to strengthen the economic pillar. One main
concern will be how to continue to narrow the gap between ASEAN’s more
developed countries and those that lag behind such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
and Vietnam. There are many economic policy issues related to this question. For
example, China and ASEAN have a free trade agreement. But ASEAN also has a
number of free trade agreements with other states, Australia and New Zealand, for
example. How can this web of agreements be made more productive?
Most importantly, on the economic side, will be ASEAN’s consideration of what
measures to take to deal with the global financial crisis. What are the next steps?
2
When should national stimulus packages be ended and how should they be phased
out? What decisions will the next summit of the Group of 20 take and how will this
impact on ASEAN members?
Next there is the issue of ASEAN and its free trade agreements with various bilateral
and multilateral partners. What are the next steps? And most important, how should
ASEAN interface with the Group of 20 (G 20) to shield itself from the negative effects
of the global financial crisis and prepare for the next G‐20 summit to be held in
Seoul, South Korea.
The AMM will be followed by a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The
ARF has twenty‐seven members from all sub‐regions of the Asia‐Pacific. The ARF has
been successful in promoting confidence building measures and addressing
terrorism and non‐traditional security issues. It has taken up the challenge of dealing
with natural disasters and humanitarian assistance. But the pace of conducting
practical exercises has been slow. The United States, for example, would like to see
more progress.
Three security issues are likely to dominate discussion at the ARF. The first will be
North Korea and its sinking of a South Korean naval vessel. There are clear
differences between the South Korea and the United States on the one hand and
China and North Korea on the other. This will be a test case for the effectiveness of
the ARF. Will the ARF take measures to punish North Korea or apply pressure for
North Korea to apologize for this incident? This is unlikely.
The Myanmar/Burma election issue will come up. ASEAN will want to approve
whatever the military regime decides, the US and EU will be looking for greater
pressure for real national reconciliation. The national elections scheduled in
Myanmar will also be an issue. The U.S. and the European Union, and their allies and
friends, will want to push the Myanmar government to free political prisoners and
engage in national reconciliation through the electoral process. Myanmar will resist.
The end result appears to be that ASEAN members will accept whatever the
Myanmar government decides to do.
The final point of friction at the ARF meeting will be differences of view between the
United States and China over the South China Sea. This meeting will likely echo some
of the heated exchanges at the recent Shangri‐la Dialogue. All three of these issues –
North Korea, Myanmar and South China Sea ‐ will set the atmosphere for the
inaugural ADMM Plus Eight process involving ASEAN defence ministers and their
dialogue partners. The inability of the ARF to deal with these issues will not be a
good sign for the success of the ADMM Plus meeting. Western countries want
practical steps to address maritime security issues and China is resisting these
pressures.