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Dam safety prediction model
considering chaotic characteristics in
prototype monitoring data series

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2016, Vol. 15(6) 639649

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considering chaotic characteristics in DOI: 10.1177/1475921716654963

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prototype monitoring data series

Abstract

Support vector machine, chaos theory, and particle swarm optimization are combined to build the prediction model of

dam safety. The approaches are proposed to optimize the input and parameter of prediction model. First, the phase

space reconstruction of prototype monitoring data series on dam behavior is implemented. The method identifying

chaotic characteristics in monitoring data series is presented. Second, support vector machine is adopted to build the

prediction model of dam safety. The characteristic vector of historical monitoring data, which is taken as support vector

machine input, is extracted by phase space reconstruction. The chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm is intro-

duced to determine support vector machine parameters. A chaotic support vector machinebased prediction model of

dam safety is built. Finally, the displacement behavior of one actual dam is taken as an example. The prediction capability

on the built prediction model of dam displacement is evaluated. It is indicated that the proposed chaotic support vector

machinebased model can provide more accurate forecasted results and is more suitable to be used to identify efficiently

the dam behavior.

Keywords

Dam safety, prediction model, support vector machine, chaos theory, particle swarm optimization

dam behavior. Some research work has demonstrated

The methods in mathematics, mechanics, and infor- that the prototype monitoring data series on dam beha-

matics are often used to analyze the prototype monitor- vior has chaotic characteristics.9,10 The unordered

ing data on dam behavior and establish the prediction chaotic time series presents a certain regularity, which

model of dam safety. The dam behavior is identified is sensitive to initial value. It is difficult to forecast the

and assessed with the built model.1,2 In fact, the con- long-term behavior according to chaotic time series.

struction of prediction model is equivalent to a machine The short-term behavior is certain and predictable.

learning problem. The monitoring data series on dam After the phase space reconstruction of chaotic time

behavior is taken as the training sample set to imple- series is implemented, the original rule of chaotic

ment the training operation and obtain a learning

machine. Compared to other machine learning meth-

ods, support vector machine (SVM) has some charac- 1

State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic

teristics such as perfect theory, kernel technology, Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

2

global optimum, and good generalization ability. It is College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai

University, Nanjing, China

more suitable to solve the nonlinear regression analysis 3

Department of Computer Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology,

problem with high dimension.38 Nanjing, China

The prototype monitoring data can reflect the 4

National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient

dynamic dam behavior under the action of environ- Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

mental and external loads. Furthermore, the remark-

Corresponding author:

able correlation exists in historical monitoring data on Huaizhi Su, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and

dam behavior. So, the characteristic vector of historical Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.

monitoring data can be extracted as SVM input and Email: su_huaizhi@hhu.edu.cn

640 Structural Health Monitoring 15(6)

system can be extracted from the historical data. The m are chosen. According to x(t), t, and m, a new series

nonlinear model is selected to approximate the dynamic is obtained as follows

system characteristics in the reconstructed phase space,

and the behavior within a certain period can be fore- X t = fxt, xt + t , . . . , xt + m 1t g 1

casted. Considering chaotic characteristics in prototype

where t = 1, 2, ., M, M = N 2 (m 2 1)t. This m

monitoring data series on dam safety, this article

dimensional state space, which consists of observed

adopts the phase space reconstruction technology to

value and delay time values, is the reconstructed phase

extract the characteristic vector of historical monitoring space. Obviously, the determination of delay time t

data, which is taken as SVM input. The chaotic sup- and embedding dimension m in equation (1) is a key

port vector machine (CSVM)-based prediction model step of phase space reconstruction.

of dam safety is studied. The delay time t and embedding dimension m are

The SVM parameters influence remarkably the gen- traditionally determined separately. In fact, the certain

eralization ability of SVM-based model. As the conven- correlation between above two parameters exists. The

tional approaches, the gird search method and genetic quality of phase space reconstruction is affected by

algorithm can be used to select the SVM parameters. independently choosing appropriate delay time t and

However, the gird search method needs to spend larger embedding dimension m and especially the determina-

calculation and longer operation time. The genetic tion of embedding window width t w = (m 2 1)t.

algorithm is often very complicated and needs to design In the C-C method proposed by Kim et al.,11 the

different crossover or mutation modes for different statistics constructed with the correlation integral of

optimization problems. The particle swarm optimiza- embedding time series is used to describe the correla-

tion (PSO), which searches the optimal solution tion of nonlinear time series. The delay time t and

through the individual collaboration, has the advan- embedding window width tw are estimated, and the

tages such as simple structure and easy implementation. embedding dimension is calculated. The C-C method

However, it is difficult to ensure the quality of initial has the advantages such as small calculation and easy

particles and is easy to fall into local optimal solution operation. A detailed description on the C-C method is

at a later stage. In this article, the chaotic particle as follows.

swarm optimization (CPSO) is introduced to obtain the Assume that x(n) (n = 1, 2, ., N) represents a mon-

optimal parameters of SVM model. itoring data series which will be taken to carry out the

phase space reconstruction, t is the delay time, and m is

the embedding dimension. The number of phase points

Phase space reconstruction and chaotic is M = N 2 (m 2 1)t. The number of vector pairs

characteristics identification of prototype related with above M points in the phase space is calcu-

monitoring data series on dam behavior lated. The vectors with the distances less than a given

positive number r are called related vectors. In the

Phase space reconstruction method of prototype reconstructed phase space, the correlation integral of

monitoring data series embedding time series X(i) is defined as the proportion

To analyze the chaotic time series, the phase space of related vector pair number in M2 possible matching

reconstruction needs to be implemented in the first pairs, namely

place. It is considered that the evolution characteristic

of any component of one system is determined by other 1 X M

C m, N , r, t = ur kX i X jk 2

interactional components and is the comprehensive M 2 i, j = 1

reflection of various components interaction. The devel-

opment process of any component implies the informa- where

tion on other components of one system. So, the phase

space of one system can be reconstructed by revealing 0, x<0

u x = 3

the implicit information in the component time series. 1, x.0

For the observed components, their observations at the

The time series x(n) (n = 1, 2, ., N) is divided into

delay points of some fixed time are regarded as new

t disjoint subsequences with the length of N/t, namely

components. The new components can be taken to

reconstruct an equivalent phase space. fx1, xt + 1, x2t + 1, . . .g

Assume that x represents the observed component, fx2, xt + 2, x2t + 2, . . .g

x(t) (t = 1, 2, ., N) is a monitoring data series. The ..

phase space reconstruction can be fulfilled as follows. .

The appropriate delay time t and embedding dimension fxt, xt + t, x2t + t, . . .g

Su et al. 641

The statistic of each subsequence S(m, N, r, t) is cal- Chaotic characteristic identification method of

culated as follows prototype monitoring data series

Chaotic characteristics of prototype monitoring data

1X t

series can be identified by calculating the characteristic

S m, N , r, t = fCl m, N =t, r, t

t l=1 parameters on strange attractor of chaotic signal. The

Cl 1, N =t, r, tm g 4 common parameters include the Lyapunov exponent

or largest Lyapunov exponent describing the diver-

where Cl is the correlation integral obtained by the lth gence rate of adjacent track, the correlation dimension

subsequence. describing the attractor dimension, and the

S(m, N, r, t) reflects the autocorrelation characteris- Kolmogorov entropy reflecting the information fre-

tic of time series. If the time series is independent and quency. Above three parameters are attractor invar-

identically distributed, then for the certain m and t, iants. In this article, the largest Lyapunov exponent

when N!N, S(m, N, r, t) is equal to 0 for all r. and correlation dimension are used to identify the

However, the actual time series is finite and there is a chaotic characteristics of prototype monitoring data

significant correlation. Therefore, S(m, N, r, t) is not series on dam behavior.

equal to 0 in general. The local maximum time can be

selected when S(m, N, r, t);t is the null point or when

S(m, N, r, t);t shows the minimum changes for all Lyapunov exponent. Chaotic system is sensitive to the ini-

neighborhood radius r. Under above cases, the points tial value. The slight variation of initial system state

in phase space are almost uniformly distributed, and will cause the exponential divergence of system beha-

the chaotic trajectory is completely unfolded in phase vior with time, but it will eventually converge to a

space. So the maximum and minimum radiuses r corre- strange attractor. Lyapunov exponent is a parameter

sponding to S(m, N, r, t) are chosen, and the following describing the divergence rate of adjacent track.

difference is defined Lyapunov exponentbased method is used to identify

the chaotic characteristics of prototype monitoring

DS m, N , t = maxS m, N , ri , t data series according to the diffusion motion of phase

orbit.

min S m, N , rj , t , i 6 j 5

A chaotic system has at least one Lyapunov expo-

DS(m, N, t);t can be used to measure the maximum nent which is greater than zero. It is an important fea-

deviation of S(m, N, r, t) for all neighborhood radius r. ture distinguishing strange attractor and other

The null points of S(m, N, r, t);t are same for all m attractors. So, only the maximum Lyapunov exponent

and r, and the minimum values of DS(m, N, t);t are l1 is usually estimated to implement the chaotic identi-

also same for all m. The delay time t corresponds to the fication of actual dynamic systems with Wolf method,

minimum value among the local maximum times t. Jacobian method, and small data setsbased method.12

It is indicated that, when 2 < m < 5, s/2 < r < 2s, The calculation steps of small data setsbased method

and N 500, the good results can be obtained. s is the with small calculation and easy operation can be

standard deviation of time series. According to equa- described as follows:

tions (4) and (5), the three statistics are defined as

follows 1. Determine the delay time t, the embedding dimen-

sion m and the average period p.

1 X 5 X 4 2. Reconstruct the phase space

S9t = S m, N , rj , t 6

16 m = 2 j = 2

X t = fxt, xt + t , . . . , xt + m 1t g

X

5 t = 1, 2, . . . , M :

1

DS9t = DS m, N , t 7

4 m=2 3. Search the nearest point X(t#) of every point X(t)

in the phase space and limit short separation,

Scor t = jS9tj + DS9t 8 namely

In the C-C method, the delay time t is regarded as

dt 0 = minkX t X t9k, jt t9j.p 9

the minimum between two local maximum times t cor- ^t

responding to the first null point of S#(t) and the first

minimum of DS#(t), and the embedding window width where t# = 1, 2, ., M and t6t#.

tw is regarded as the time t corresponding to the mini- 4. Calculate the distance dt(i) of neighborhood point

mum of Scor(t). for every point X(t) in the phase space after i

642 Structural Health Monitoring 15(6)

D = lim 15

r!0 ln r

dt i = kX t + i X t9 + ik, i = 1, 2, . . . ,

A double logarithmic curve of lnC(r)lnr can be

minM t, M t9 10 obtained by giving some certain values of r and calcu-

5. The geometric significance of the maximum lating the corresponding correlation integral C(r). The

Lyapunov exponent l1 is to quantify the exponent least square method is adopted to fit an optimal straight

divergence of initial closed orbits. So the following line on above curve. The straight line slope is called cor-

can be known relation exponent.

For a chaotic series, the correlation exponent will be

dt i = dt 0el1 iDt 11 increased with the increase in embedding dimension m,

finally tends to a saturation value. The saturation value

is the correlation dimension D2. For a random series,

where Dt is the time interval of monitoring data series. the correlation exponent will keep increasing as the

The following can be obtained using Log function on embedding dimension m increases, and there is no

both sides of equation (11) saturation phenomenon. Therefore, the embedding

dimension m is increased gradually and the correspond-

ln dt i = ln dt 0 + l1 iDt, t = 1, 2, . . . , M 12 ing correlation exponent is calculated. The chaotic

Obviously, the maximum Lyapunov exponent l1 series or random series can be distinguished according

can be approximately regarded as the slopes of the to the saturation phenomenon of calculated correlation

straight lines lndt(i)/Dt;i (t = 1, 2, ., M), which can exponent.

be obtained using the least square method, namely

CSVM-based prediction model of dam

1

yi = hln dt ii 13 safety

Dt

Considering the chaotic characteristics in prototype

where \. represents the average value of all t. A linear

monitoring data series on dam behavior, SVM and

area of y(i);i is selected and the least square method is

chaos theory are combined into chaotic SVM (CSVM),

adopted to generate a regression straight line. The slope

which is used to build the prediction model of dam

of above straight line is the maximum Lyapunov expo-

safety.

nent l1.

that it has the strange attractor in the phase space. A The appropriate delay time t and embedding dimension

basic mathematical parameter describing the strange m are chosen to implement the phase space reconstruc-

attractor is its dimension. G-P algorithm is extensively tion of chaotic monitoring data series on dam behavior,

applied to the correlation dimension calculation of above x(t) (t = 1, 2, ., N). The following phase space vector

attractor according to the time series.13,14 The basic prin- sequence is obtained

ciple of G-P algorithm is introduced as follows.

After the monitoring data series, x(t) (t = 1, 2, ., X t = fxt, xt t , . . . , xt m 1t g,

N), is taken to implement the phase space delay recon- t = 1 + m 1t, . . . , N 16

struction, a set of space vectors as follows can be

obtained It can be known from Takens embedding theorem

that, as long as the chosen delay time t and embedding

X t = fxt, xt + t , . . . , xt + m 1t g, dimension m are appropriate, the trajectory in the

t = 1, 2, . . . , M reconstructed phase space is the dynamic equivalence

of original system in the sense of differential homeo-

A neighborhood radius r is given and the correlation morphism. So, there is a function relationship as

integral C(r) can be calculated as follows follows

1 X M

X t + h = F X t = F fxt, xt t , . . . , x

C r = 2

ur kX i X jk 14

M i, j = 1 t m 1t g 17

Obviously, the calculation results of correlation inte- where h is the prediction step length.

gral are related to the value of r. Correlation dimension The change process of X(t)!X(t + h) can reflect the

D is defined as follows evolution of original unknown dynamic system. For the

Su et al. 643

case such as h = 1, the following first component of variables with same number of optimized variables are

X(t + h) can be obtained from equation (17) generated. The chaos is added to the optimized vari-

ables with a similar way of signal carrier and the vari-

xt + 1 = f fxt, xt t , . . . , xt m 1t g 18 ables present the chaotic state. At the same time, the

ergodic range of chaotic motion is extended to the

Obviously, {x(t), x(t 2 t), ., x[t 2 (m 2 1)t]} can

value range of optimized variables. Then, the chaotic

be regarded as the input vector of SVM which is used

variables are directly taken to search. Because the chao-

to fulfill the regression prediction of x(t + 1).

tic motion has the characteristics such as randomness,

ergodicity, and sensitivity to initial conditions, the

CSVM parameter selection chaos-based search is better than other random

The SVM parameter selection has a great influence on searches.

the learning effect and generalization ability of SVM The selection on penalty factor C and RBF kernel

which is used to carry out the regression analysis.1518 function parameter g is equivalent to solving the two-

The gird search method is usually used to select the dimensional (2D) optimization problem as follows

penalty factor C and the parameter g of radial basis

min f x1 , x2

function (RBF) kernel function. In fact, it searches the 20

s:t: ai <xi <bi , i = 1, 2

optimal parameter combination from an exhaustive

parameter combination series, which needs to exhaust where the optimized variable x1 represents the penalty

long time. Therefore, some intelligent optimization factor C, the optimized variable x2 represents the para-

algorithms such as PSO are combined with SVM to meter g of RBF kernel function. The objective function,

search the SVM parameters. PSO first initializes ran- namely, the fitness value f, is to average the forecast

domly a particle group in a search space. The position mean square errors of k validation sets. Considering

of each particle is a solution of optimization problem. that the big penalty factor C can cause the decrease in

Each particle has a fitness value measuring its perfor- model generalization ability, the penalty factor C

mance, and there is a speed which decides the flight should be controlled as small as possible under the pre-

direction and distance of each particle. Then, the parti- mise of ensuring a certain prediction accuracy on cross

cles track the current optimal particle, dynamically validation of training set.

adjust their speeds and positions, and the optimal solu- The CPSO can be used to select the penalty factor C

tion is found by iteration. In each iteration, the particle and the RBF kernel function parameter g as follows.

updates itself by tracking two following extremes. One The flowchart is shown in Figure 1:

is the individual extreme pbest, namely, the current

optimal solution found by the particle itself. Another is 1. Implement the chaotic particle initialization.

the global extreme gbest, namely, the current optimal Generate randomly one 2D vector z1 = (z11, z12),

solution found by the entire population. Compared

and its components are between 0 and 1. According

with genetic algorithm, PSO algorithm finds the opti-

to equation (20), zi + 1j = 4zij(1 2 zij), i = 1, 2, .,

mal solution through individual collaboration. The

N 2 1 and j = 1, 2. N particles, z1, z2, ., zN, can

PSO algorithm has two shortcomings.19 One is that the

be obtained.

initialization process is random, but the quality of each Add the components of zi to the optimized variables

particle cannot be guaranteed. Another is that it is easy

with the signal carrier way. xij = aj + (bi 2 aj)zij,

to fall into the local optimal solution at a later stage.

i = 1, 2, ., N and j = 1, 2. N particles, x1, x2, .,

As an improved PSO, the CPSO can take advantage

xN, can be generated.

of chaotic motion ergodicity to find a particle swarm Calculate the fitness values, fN 3 1, for all particles,

with good individual quality when the particle swarm is

and select m ones with better performance among N

initialized. The chaotic disturbance on the particles is

particles to form initial particle swarm xm 3 2. For

carried out so as to make the solution out of local

above selected m particles, their fitness values fi and

extreme interval when the particles are updated.

the first components xi1 (namely, penalty factor C)

Logistic mapping is a typical chaotic system, and its

are both smaller. The initialization speed is vm 3 2

iterative formula can be expressed as follows

= zeros(m, 2).

Initialize the individual extreme, pxbest0 = xm 3 2.

zi + 1 = mzi 1 zi , i = 0, 1, 2, . . . , m 2 2, 4 19

The corresponding fitness value is pfbest0 = fm 3 1.

When the control parameters m = 4, 0 < z0 < 1, Initialize the global extreme, gxbest0, and the corre-

logistic is completely in a chaotic state. According to sponding fitness value, gfbest0, according to the fit-

the chaotic motion characteristics, the optimal search ness values fi and the first components xi1 (namely,

can be implemented as follows. A set of chaotic penalty factor C) of m particles.

644 Structural Health Monitoring 15(6)

fitness value on individual extreme of the particle

xi is pfbestki \ gfbestk 2 1 or pfbestki-gfbestk

2 1 < e and the first component of individual

extreme is pxbestki1 \ gxbestk 2 1,1, then the global

extreme of particle swarm is gxbestk = pxbestki,

and the corresponding fitness value is gfbestk =

pfbestki. Otherwise, gxbestki = gxbestk 2 1i and

gfbestk = gfbestk 2 1.

8. End the cyclic operations. According to the fitness

values gfbestk and the first components gxbestk1 on

the kmax global extremes, which are obtained in the

kmax iterations, the appropriate penalty factor C

and RBF kernel function parameter g are

determined.

Figure 1. CSVM parameter selection flowchart.

safety with CSVM

Assume that x(t) (t = 1, 2, ., N) represents a monitor-

2. Generate randomly one 2D vector u0 = (u01, u02), ing data series on dam safety. According to the delay

and its components are between 0 and 1. time t and embedding dimension m chosen with the

3. For the iteration number k = 1:kmax and the parti- proposed way, the phase space reconstruction of x(t) is

cle i = 1:m, the following cyclic operations are implemented and the chaotic characteristic is identified.

implemented. If the time series is chaotic, a sample set X(t), x(t + 1)},

4. Update the speeds of all particles, which are within where t = 1 + (m 2 1)t, ., N 2 1, is constructed.

vmax X(t)2Rm is the input feature vector, which is obtained

according to equation (16). x(t + 1)2R is the output

vki = c0 vk1i + c1 pxbestk1i xk1i + c2 gxbestk1i xk1i variable. The first n sets of observed data are taken as

the training samples to implement the training opera-

21

tion of CSVM and obtain the prediction model of dam

5. Update the particle position with chaotic safety.

disturbance.

According to equation (19), u1j = 4u0j(1 2 u0j),

j = 1, 2, obtain u1 = (u11, u12).

Example analysis

Put each component of u1 to the chaotic distur- One roller compacted concrete gravity dam with a max-

bance range [2b, b] with the signal carrier way, imum height of 113.0 m, a crest length of 308.5 m, and

Dxj = 2b + 2bu1j, j = 1, 2. Obtain the distur- a crest elevation of 179.0 m is taken as an example to

bance variable Dx = (Dx1, Dx2). demonstrate the proposed model. This dam (Figure 2)

Let u0 = u1. consists of six dam sections which are numbered 16

Calculate xki = xk 2 1i + vki, x9ki = xk1i + vki + Dx from left bank to right bank. The normal storage water

and the corresponding fitness values fki, fki9 . If fki9\fki level and the check flood level are 173.00 and 177.80 m,

or jfki9\fki j<e and the first component at the particle respectively. The pendulum measurements (Figure 2)

position is x9ki1\xki1 , then update the particle posi- were installed to measure the horizontal displacement

tion into xki = x9ki and the corresponding fitness value of dam crest and dam body. The monitoring system

is fki = fki9 . was put into operation in October 2002. In this article,

6. Update the extreme of individual particle. If fki \ the horizontal displacement along the river of No. 5

pfbestk 2 1i or fki-pfbestk 2 1i < e and the first dam section crest is analyzed with the proposed

component at the particle position is xki1 \ method. Figure 3 shows the time curve of horizontal

pxbestk 2 1i1, then the individual extreme of the displacement measured daily from 1 January 2003 to 31

particle xi is pxbestki = xki, and the corresponding December 2007. Based on the observations of pendu-

fitness value is pfbestki = fki. Otherwise, lum measurement, the proposed method is used to

pxbestki = pxbestk 2 1i and pfbestki = pfbestk 2 1i. build the prediction model of dam displacement. The

Su et al. 645

Figure 3. Time curve on observed horizontal displacement of No. 5 dam section crest.

fitting and forecasting ability of built model and con- reconstruction of monitoring data series, namely x(t),

ventional model is compared. t = 1, 2, ., 1825, is implemented. The phase space

vector series is obtained as follows

on dam displacement

The key to reconstruct the phase space of monitoring

data series on dam displacement, namely, x(t), t = 1,

2, ., 1825, is to determine the related parameters.

Equations (6)(8) in the mentioned C-C method are

used to determine the delay time t and embedding

dimension m. Figure 4 shows the relation curves

between S#(t)t, DS#(t)t, and Scor(t)t. It can be seen

from Figure 4 that the time when DS#(t) reaches the

first minimum is earlier than that when S#(t) reaches

null point. So, the delay time is regarded as the time

when DS#(t) reaches the first minimum, t = 26. The

embedding window width is taken as the time t corre-

sponding to the minimum of Scor(t), tw = 73. The cal-

culated embedding dimension is m = 4.

According to the delay time t and embedding dimen- Figure 4. Relation curves between S#(t)t, DS#(t)t, and

sion m determined above, the phase space Scor(t)t.

646 Structural Health Monitoring 15(6)

Figure 6. Relation curve between lnC(r) and lnr. calculated with equation (14) and the relation curve

between lnC(r) and lnr can be given, which is shown in

X t = fxt, xt 26, xt 52, Figure 6. It can be seen from Figure 6 that there are

xt 78g, t = 79, 80, . . . , 1825 22 obvious straight line segments in 10 curves. The straight

lines are fitted using the least square method and their

slopes, namely, correlation exponents d(m), can be

Chaotic characteristics identification of monitoring obtained. Figure 7 shows the relation curve between

data series on dam displacement d(m) and m. It can be seen from Figure 7 that the corre-

lation exponent increases as the embedding dimension

Maximum Lyapunov exponent calculation. The small data m increases. When m = 6, it tends to the saturation

setsbased method is adopted to calculate the maxi- value (1.85) which is the correlation dimension D2.

mum Lyapunov exponent of monitoring data series, It can be known from above analysis that for the

namely, x(t), t = 1, 2, ., 1825. The delay time t and monitoring data series on dam displacement, x(t),

embedding dimension m determined above are 26 and t = 1, 2, ., 1825, its maximum Lyapunov exponent

4, respectively. y(i) is calculated with equation (13). The l1 is greater than zero, and its correlation dimension

relation curve between y(i) and i can be given as Figure D2 is the fraction. So the chaotic characteristic exists in

5. The least square method is used to fit the linear area the monitoring data series on dam displacement. The

of above relation curve between y(i) and i. It can be proposed method can be used to build the prediction

known that the straight line slope, namely the maxi- model of dam displacement.

mum Lyapunov exponent l1, is 0.0087.

Correlation dimension calculation. G-P algorithm is intro-

duced to calculate the correlation dimension of moni- and its performance analysis

toring data series, namely, x(t), t = 1, 2, ., 1825. The A sample set, {X(t), x(t + 1)}, t = 79, 80, ., 1824, is

phase space is reconstructed under the conditions that constructed, where X(t)2R4 is the input feature vector

the delay time is t = 26 and the embedding dimension obtained according to equation (22) and x(t + 1)2R is

Su et al. 647

Table 1. CPSO algorithm parameters. cross validation mean square error (CVMSE). When

the CVMSE difference between two parameter sets is

Parameter Value not more than 1025, the parameter set with smaller C is

Random particle number (N) 50 better.

Chaotic particle number (m) 10 The gird search method uses the logarithmic form,

Maximum iteration number (kmax) 10 namely, log2 C and log2 g, to construct the gird. The

Maximum particle speed (vmax) 0.6 3 28 change step length of log2 C and log2 g is 0.8, namely,

Acceleration constant (c1) 1.5 3 rand the change step length of C and g is 1.7411. Figure 8

Acceleration constant (c2) 1.7 3 rand

Chaotic disturbance range [2b, b] [21, 1] shows the search results on optimal parameters by the

gird search method. The obtained optimal parameters

are that the penalty factor C = 84.4485 and the RBF

kernel function parameter g = 0.0068. The corre-

the output variable. For the 1746 sample points of dam sponding CVMSE is 0.0026, and the consuming time is

displacement, the 1382 sample points observed from 168 s.

2003 to 2006 forms a training set in order to establish CPSO algorithm takes x = (C, g) as the particle,

the prediction model of dam displacement, and the 364 and CVMSE as the fitness value. Table 1 lists the para-

sample points observed in 2007 forms a test set in order meters related to CPSO algorithm. The search results

to judge the prediction performance of built model. on optimal parameters by CPSO algorithm are shown

in Figure 9. The obtained optimal parameters are that

the penalty factor C = 63.6498 and the RBF kernel

Model parameters selection. RBF kernel function is function parameter g = 0.0039. The corresponding

selected and the insensitive loss function parameter is CVMSE is 0.0026, and the consuming time is 88 s.

e = 0.001. The grid search method and the CPSO are

used to determine the penalty factor C and the para-

meter g of RBF kernel function. The ranges of C and g Prediction model of dam displacement and its

are both set as 22828. The evaluation indexes of model performance. The determined parameters and training

performance are taken as the penalty factor C and the set of CSVM are taken to train CSVM. The

648 Structural Health Monitoring 15(6)

Figure 10. Calculated results of CSVM-based model with optimal parameters searched by CPSO algorithm.

Table 2. Fitting and prediction abilities of two CSVM-based models with optimal parameters searched by CPSO (Model I) and by

gird search method (Model II).

Mean square Squared correlation Mean square Squared correlation

error coefficient r2 error coefficient r2

Model II 2.38e25 0.9996 2.32e25 0.9995 88

CSVM-based prediction model of dam displacement displacement; however, CPSO algorithm spends less

can be obtained. Figure 10 shows the fitting and pre- time than the gird search method on searching the

diction results of CSVM-based prediction model with optimal parameters.

the optimal parameters searched by CPSO algorithm.

Table 2 lists the evaluation indexes on fitting and pre-

Conclusion

diction performances of two CSVM-based prediction

models with the optimal parameters searched by Considering the chaotic characteristics in prototype

CPSO algorithm and gird search method. It can be monitoring data series on dam behavior, the learning

seen from Table 2 that two models are well matched method of SVM and chaos theory are integrated to

in the fitting and prediction abilities of dam study the establishment problem on prediction model

Su et al. 649

struction and CPSO are developed to determine the 1. Mata J, Tavares de Castro A and Sa da Costa J. Con-

input feature vector and parameters of CSVM-based structing statistical models for arch dam deformation.

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1. Based on the reconstructed phase space of proto- native regression model in dam deformation analysis. Eng

Appl Artif Intel 2011; 25(3): 468475.

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3. Rankovic V, Grujovic N, Divac D, et al. Development of

method is presented to identify the chaotic char- support vector regression identification model for prediction

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behavior. 4. Lopez FJM, Puertas SM and Arriaza JAT. Training of

2. SVM is introduced to build the prediction model support vector machine with the use of multivariate nor-

of dam safety. The phase space reconstruction is malization. Appl Soft Comput 2014; 24: 11051111.

implemented to extract the feature vector from the 5. Widodo A, Kim EY, Son JD, et al. Fault diagnosis of low

historical data in prototype monitoring data series speed bearing based on relevance vector machine and support

with chaotic characteristics, which is regarded as vector machine. Expert Syst Appl 2009; 36(3): 72527261.

SVM input. The CPSO algorithm is adopted to 6. Smola AJ and Scholkopf B. A tutorial on support vector

determine the key parameters of SVM. A CSVM regression. Stat Comput 2004; 14(3): 199222.

7. Samanta B, Al-Balushi KR and Al-Araimi SA. Artificial

with optimal input and parameters is proposed to

neural networks and support vector machines with

fulfill the prediction model establishment of dam

genetic algorithm for bearing fault detection. Eng Appl

safety. Artif Intel 2003; 16(78): 657665.

3. The displacement of one actual dam is taken as an 8. Kuang FJ, Xu WH and Zhang SY. A novel hybrid

example to verify the modeling efficiency and fore- KPCA and SVM with GA model for intrusion detection.

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11. Kim HS, Eykholt R and Salas JD. Nonlinear dynamics,

sonably the dam structural behavior.

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Acknowledgements 12. Rosenstein MT, Collins JJ and De Luca CJ. A practical

The authors thank the reviewers for useful comments and sug- method for calculating largest Lyapunov exponents from

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of strange attractors. Physica D 1983; 9(12): 189208.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests 14. Grassberger P and Procaccia I. Characterization of

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with strange attractors. Phys Rev Lett 1983; 50(5): 346349.

respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this 15. Suykens JAK, Brabanter JD, Lukas L, et al. Weighted least

article. squares support vector machines: robustness and sparse

approximation. Neurocomputing 2002; 48(14): 85105.

16. Su HZ, Wen ZP and Wu ZR. Study on an intelligent

Funding inference engine in early-warning system of dam health.

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial sup- Water Resour Manag 2011; 25(6): 15451563.

port for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this 17. Wang XH, Mao HL, Zhu CM, et al. Damage localiza-

article: This research has been partially supported by tion in hydraulic turbine blades using kernel-independent

National Natural Science Foundation of China (SN: component analysis and support vector machines. Proc

51579083, 41323001, 51139001, and 51479054), Jiangsu IMechE, Part C: J Mechanical Engineering Science 2009;

Natural Science Foundation (SN: BK2012036), the Doctoral 223(2): 525529.

Program of Higher Education of China (SN: 18. Wu ZH and Huang NE. Ensemble empirical mode

20130094110010), Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory decomposition: a noise assisted data analysis method.

of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Adv Adapt Data Anal 2009; 1(1): 141.

(SN: 20145027612), the Fundamental Research Funds for the 19. Kang F and Li JJ. Artificial bee colony algorithm opti-

Central Universities (SN: 2015B25414) and a project funded mized support vector regression for system reliability

by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu analysis of slopes. J Comput Civil Eng 2015; 30(5):

Higher Education Institutions (SN: 3014-SYS1401). 04015040.

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