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Nubaria-Metnama Pipeline QRA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Nubaria-Metnama Natural Gas pipeline starts from Al-Nubaria power
station passing by North Giza power station and ends at Metnama area. This
pipe line is used to feed this area with Natural Gas for power plants to be
used in the production of electricity.
This document sets out the Nubaria-Metnama Natural Gas pipeline QRA in
order to identify the key hazards and risks associated with the new pipeline.
The study focuses on the major, worst-case hazards, essentially in order to
prioritize the potential impacts to the public.
RISK CRITERIA
Individual risks are the key measure of risk acceptability for this type of
study, where it is proposed that:
Risk in the range of 10-6 to 5 x 10-7 may cause injury to persons who
could not find a shelter within 30 seconds.
After 20 and until 30 years of operation, five villages will be affected, but
again only by the 5 x 10-7, which means that they are no real risk too.
After 30 years, the 1x10-6 risk appears but does not reach any villages except
Al-Baradah village; also the 5 x 10 -7 reaches 7 villages with no real risk to the
residents.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
The results of this QRA report show that the 1 x 10-6 risk contour (which is the
risk of fatality to the public) does not appear except after 30 years of
operation and even then has a negligible effect. However the 5x10 -7 risk of
injury contour appears but with a limited effect and it is acceptable for
population to exist within its vicinity.
GASCO will take all possible actions to organize building construction and
encroachment around both banks of the pipeline. Also, they are committed
to coordinate with local authorities about any new projects to be constructed
in the area of the project. This will limit the effect of any accident to a great
extent.
Rapid isolation of significant leaks will not eliminate the risks but will help to
further minimize the hazards and, particularly, the ignition probability (by
limiting the total mass of flammable gas released). For isolation to be
effective first requires detection to occur. Close monitoring and rapid
shutdown of the pipeline in case of an emergency are important to limiting
the effects of leaks.
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CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................1
RISK CRITERIA......................................................................................................................... 1
RISK RESULTS PUBLIC............................................................................................................. 1
RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................................................................. 2
ABBREVIATIONS................................................................................................. 8
1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................ 9
1.1 BACKGROUND.............................................................................................................. 9
1.2 OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE................................................................................................. 9
1.3 LAYOUT OF STUDY......................................................................................................... 9
2 SITE DESCRIPTION.....................................................................................11
2.1 LOCATION.................................................................................................................. 11
2.2 LAND USE................................................................................................................. 11
2.3 LOCATION OF VALVE ROOMS......................................................................................... 12
2.4 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.....................................................................................15
3 PROJECT DESCRIPTION...............................................................................17
3.1 PIPELINE DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................17
3.2 PIPELINE SPECIFICATIONS.............................................................................................. 17
3.3 MITIGATIONS FOR CONSTRUCTION AND PIPELINE OPERATION................................................17
4 RISK ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA.......................................................................19
4.1 RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK.....................................................................................19
4.2 INDIVIDUAL RISK CRITERIA............................................................................................ 20
4.3 SOCIETAL RISK CRITERIA.............................................................................................. 21
5 METHODOLOGY..........................................................................................22
5.1 DATA COLLECTION...................................................................................................... 22
5.2 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION (HAZID).................................................................................23
5.3 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS.................................................................................................. 23
5.4 CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS.............................................................................................. 23
5.5 RISK CALCULATIONS.................................................................................................... 23
5.6 RISK SOFTWARE TOOLS...............................................................................................24
6 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS................................................................................25
6.1 GENERAL.................................................................................................................. 25
6.2 BASIC FAILURE FREQUENCIES........................................................................................26
6.3 EXTERNAL INTERFERENCE FACTORS ADJUSTMENTS.............................................................27
6.3.1 Marker Tape....................................................................................................... 27
6.3.2 Depth of Cover................................................................................................... 27
6.3.3 Wall Thickness.................................................................................................... 28
6.4 GROUND MOVEMENT FACTORS ADJUSTMENTS..................................................................28
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 2-1: A GOOGLE EARTH IMAGE SHOWING THE NUBARIAMETNAMA PIPELINE WITH VALVE ROOMS
LOCATIONS AND POWER PLANTS ON THE LINE...........................................................................14
FIGURE 5-1: QRA METHODOLOGY................................................................................................22
FIGURE 6-1: AVERAGE CONTRIBUTION OF INCIDENT CAUSES FOR ALL CATEGORIES OF PIPELINES................26
FIGURE 6-2: GENERAL CONTRIBUTION OF FAILURE CAUSES IN CASE OF FULL-BORE RAPTURE..................26
FIGURE 7-1: WIND ROSE (PROBABILITY OF WIND DIRECTION)............................................................32
FIGURE 10-1: ALOHA JET FIRE OUTPUT AT 70 BAR.........................................................................44
FIGURE 11-1: RISK AT 70 BAR PRESSURES AS AFUNCTION OF DISTANCE FROM CENTER OF PIPELINE AT 1.2 M
DEPTH OF COVER................................................................................................................ 46
FIGURE 12-1: PIPELINE PATH GENERAL VIEW SHOWING THE FOURTEEN VILLAGES AROUND THE PIPELINE......52
FIGURE 12-2: LESS THAN 20 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT MASJID AR-RAHMAN (10-6 RISK
CONTOUR DOES NOT APPEAR)............................................................................................... 53
FIGURE 12-3: LESS THAN 20 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT AL-BARADAH VILLAGE (10-6 RISK
CONTOUR DOES NOT APPEAR)............................................................................................... 54
FIGURE 12-4: 20 30 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT MASJID AR-RAHMAN VILLAGE (10-6 RISK
CONTOUR DOES NOT APPEAR)............................................................................................... 55
FIGURE 12-5: 20 30 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT SIDI IBRAHIM(10-6 RISK CONTOUR DOES
NOT APPEAR)..................................................................................................................... 56
FIGURE 12-6: 20 -30 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT JAMAL AL-FRANSAWI (10-6 RISK CONTOUR
DOES NOT APPEAR)............................................................................................................. 57
FIGURE 12-7:20 - 30 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT KAFR MANSOUR VILLAGE (10-6 RISK CONTOUR
DOES NOT APPEAR)............................................................................................................. 58
FIGURE 12-8: 20 30 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT AL-BARADAH VILLAGE (10-6 RISK CONTOUR
DOES NOT APPEAR)............................................................................................................. 59
FIGURE 12-9: 30 -40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT AS-SUKHNA AL-JADIDA......................60
FIGURE 12-10: 30 40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT MASJID AR-RAHMAN......................61
FIGURE 12-11: 30 40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT SIDI IBRAHIM................................62
FIGURE 12-12: 30 40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT IZBT JAMAL AL-FRANSAWI......................63
FIGURE 12-13: 30 40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT KAFR MANSOUR..................................64
FIGURE 12-14: 30 40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT DARAWA VILLAGE................................65
FIGURE 12-15: 30-40 YEARS INDIVIDUAL RISK CONTOURS AT AL-BARADAH VILLAGE.............................66
FIGURE 12-16: F-N CURVE MARKING THE ALARP ZONE AND THE FREQUENCY FOR LESS THAN AND GREATER
THAN 20 YEARS OF OPERATION.............................................................................................67
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LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 2-1: LOCATION OF VALVE ROOMS........................................................................................12
TABLE 2-2: TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FOR NORTH GIZA AREA.......................................................15
TABLE 6-1: BASE FREQUENCIES FOR PIPELINE RELEASE....................................................................26
TABLE 6-2: BASE FREQUENCY FOR PIPELINES IN THE DIAMETER CATEGORY OF 29 35........................27
TABLE 6-3: REDUCTION FACTOR RELATED TO THE DEPTH OF COVER...................................................28
TABLE 6-4: FREQUENCY REDUCTION FACTOR RELATED TO WALL THICKNESS.........................................28
TABLE 6-5: SUB CAUSES OF GROUND MOVEMENT AND THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS......................................28
TABLE 6-6: FINAL FREQUENCY AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THREE YEARS CATEGORIES...............................29
TABLE 6-7: PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FOLLOWING A RELEASE FROM PIPE.............................................30
TABLE 7-1: ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS.........................................................................................32
TABLE 7-2: SUMMARY OF IGNITED RELEASE OUTCOMES, OR HAZARD TYPES.........................................35
TABLE 8-1: HAZARD CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND PROPOSED OR INHERENT SAFEGUARDS......................37
TABLE 12-1 : FREQUENCIES USED FOR ALL THE CASES AT THE THREE OPERATION YEARS CATEGORIES.........47
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ABBREVIATIONS
AIChE American Institute of Chemical Engineers
ALARP As Low As Reasonably Practicable
ALOHA Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres
API American Petroleum Institute
BP British Petroleum
CCPA Center for Chemical Process Safety
CCTV Closed Circuit Television
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
DNV Det Norske Veritas
EGIG European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group
EGPC Egyptian General Petroleum Company
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
ESD Electrostatic Discharge
F/N Frequency Number of Fatalities Curve
FM200 Dupont waterless fire suppression system
FRED Fire, Release, Explosion and Dispersion
GASCO Egyptian Natural Gas Company
HAZID Hazard Identification
HCRD Hydrocarbon Release Database
HRSG Heat Recovery Steam Generator
HSE Health and Safety Executive
HVAC Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning
IP Intermediate Pressure
LFL Lower Flammability Limit
LP Low Pressure
MAOP Maximum Allowable Operating Pressure
NFPA National Fire Protection Association
NG Natural Gas
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
OEM Office of Emergency Management
QRA Quantitative Risk Assessment
UK United Kingdom
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
Nubaria-Metnama Natural Gas pipeline is planned to be constructed between
Nubaria Power Station and Metnama area for the transfer of natural gas
through the West of the Nile Delta area. The design of the project is
performed by the Egyptian Natural Gas Company (GASCO).
The scope covered is for a QRA, which is focused on the worst-case hazards,
and associated risks, in order to assess the key risks.
Section 2 and Section 3 describe the site of the pipeline and the give
details about the project, and the mitigation measures adopted by
GASCO.
Section 4 sets out the risk criteria proposed for this study, on which the
determination of acceptability will be based. This is covered in detail by
Appendix A1.
Section 5 clarifies the methodology adopted while carrying out the risk
assessment and the tools used for the study.
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Section 11 describes the Risk Assessment steps and presents its basic
results.
Section 12 details the final risk results, which are primarily based
around the individual risk contours. These are discussed with respect
to the potential risks to the public. It also presents the Conclusions and
Recommendations of the analysis.
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2 SITE DESCRIPTION
2.1 LOCATION
The Nubaria-Metnama Natural Gas pipeline starts from Al-Nubaria power
station passing through several villages and agricultural land in the West of
the Delta, near its end it passes by North Giza power station and ends at
Metnama area. The pipeline is 104 Km long and passes through the Bhaira,
Menofia, Giza and Qalyubiyah Governorates. Figure 2 -1 shows the Google
earth image for the pipeline showing the valve rooms locations and numbers,
Al-Nubaria power station as the starting point of the line, and North Giza
power station that benefits from the pipeline.
It is memorable to note that the detailed maps on which the pipeline was
placed are old dating back to 1992, on the other hand the Google earth
images are based on the satellite photos taken within 2010. During this time
some villages extended and the pipeline now passes through one of them,
namely Al-Baradah village (see Figure 12 -9).
GASCO ensures that they have done a physical survey of the entire route and
that they will not construct a pipeline passing through villages, only through
agricultural land, and that the exact placement of the pipeline will be based
on real conditions according to real ground situation. Limited accuracy due to
drawing the pipeline on the Google Earth image or during measuring
distances from the actual maps may account for the difference than the real
case.
The pipeline passes beside several Villages; these Villages are listed from the
North (beginning of the line) and moving South then East with the line. The
villages are:
Al-Iman
Salah Al-Din
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Badr -
Umar Makram
Umar Shahin
Al-Khatatba -
Ar-Raml -
Al-karadi -
Kafr Mansour
Sheshaa -
Darawah -
Al-Baradah -
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Valve Room 3 30 45
30 32 29.54 8
58.70
Valve Room 4 30 48
30 29 43.12 8
15.81
Valve Room 5 30 48
30 25 34.84 8
56.89
Valve Room 6 30 48
10
30 20 17.17 17.59
Valve Room 7 30 55
15
30 14 55.05 07.53
Valve Room 8 30 56
4
30 14 48.49 33.74
Valve Room 9 31 00
10
30 12 12.10 25.64
Valve Room 10 31 05
10
30 14 09.06 51.72
Valve Room 11 31 11
30 14 08.57 9
08.57
Valve Room 12 31 16
30 12 42.76 9
00.60
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Room 1
Room 2
Al-Nubaria Power
Room 3
Room 4
Room 5
Room 6
Room 7
Room 10 Room 11
Room 8
Room 9 Room 12
Figure 2-1: A Google Earth image showing the NubariaMetnama pipeline with valve rooms locations and power
plants on the line
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Table 2 -2shows the annual temperature and humidity variation around the
site. The wind rose for the area is shown in Figure 2 -2. The wind rose shows
that wind blows mainly from the North and that the wind speed seldom
increases over 10 knots.
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3 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
3.1 PIPELINE DESCRIPTION
The pipeline is 104 km long starting at Al-Nubaria power station and feeds
the North Giza power plant along its path. The line has 12 valve rooms to act
as a safeguard for the pipeline.
International codes and criteria are used during the choice of the path
and the design of the pipeline,
The gases being transmitted must not contain any corrosive materials,
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The internal testing system is repeated periodically and the results are
compared against the previous test results.
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The risk criteria proposed to be used are drawn from the widely used
framework set out by the UKs HSE, using the As Low As Reasonably
Practicable (ALARP) principle, and proposes risk acceptance criteria to be
used as guidance for this study.
The simplest framework for risk criteria is a single risk level which divides
tolerable risks from intolerable ones. Such criteria give attractively simple
results, but they need to be used very carefully, because they do not reflect
the uncertainties both in estimating risks and in assessing what is tolerable.
For instance, if applied rigidly, they could indicate that an activity which just
exceeded the criteria would become acceptable as a result of some minor
remedial measure which in fact scarcely changed the risk levels.
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the higher the risks, the more it is worth spending to reduce them. If the
risks are low enough, it may not be worth spending anything, and the risks
are then regarded as negligible.
This approach can be interpreted as dividing risks into three tiers (as is
illustrated in Appendix A1):
An upper band where risks are intolerable whatever the benefit the
activity may bring. Risk reduction measures or design changes are
considered essential.
The most widely-used criteria for individual risks are the ones proposed by
the UK HSE, noting that these have also been interpreted for projects in
Egypt.
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It should also be noted that lower criteria are often adopted with
respect to vulnerable populations, such that schools and hospitals,
for example, should be located such that the individual risks are
well below 10-6 per year.
It is, however, important to note that the acceptability of societal risks can
be subjective and depends on a number of factors (such as the benefits
versus the risks that a facility provides). There is not a single established
indicator in terms of societal risk.
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5 METHODOLOGY
QRA is a well-established methodology to assess the risks of industrial
activities and to compare them with risks of normal activities. The QRA
methodology used is shown in Figure 5 -3.
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Explosion
Flash Fire
Jet Fire
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Risk contours were generated using the tools described in Section 5.6
Similarly, the way the risks are calculated, via event trees, is part of the user-
defined input. The risk assessment software is written using a programming
language that takes the digitized graphs from ALOHA as an input, taking into
consideration the frequency of occurrence and the probability of ignition of
each type of release. The inputs are consequences in the form specified
above, where each will have an event frequency together with an immediate
ignition probability or a background delayed ignition probability. The
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6 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
6.1 GENERAL
The failure data of release are derived from the European Gas Pipeline
Incident Data Group (EGIG, 2008). The European data is derived based on a
significant exposure experience in terms of kilometer years experienced from
1970 2007 in fifteen European countries, which is a statistically significant
base for estimating release frequencies. The general statistical data is
averaged on all the fifteen countries without taking the regional differences,
such as population density and geological conditions, into consideration,
which makes the data more reliable for use. The frequency also takes into
consideration a number of variable factors such as: wall thickness, depth of
cover, probability of ignition, etc.
The analysis of the main incident causes for all categories of pipelines
(different diameters, thicknesses, pressures, etc.) shows that the main cause
of incidents is through external interference followed by construction defect /
Material Failure then corrosion as can be seen in Figure 6 -4.
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Figure 6-4: Average contribution of incident causes for all categories of pipelines
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The failure data indicate that for pipelines with a diameter from 29 to 35,
only full rupture can occur at this diameter with the frequency shown in Table
6 -4. Table 6 -4 also shows the change in the construction defect/ material
failure based on the number of years that passed since the construction, for
this study three categories are adopted, the first is since the construction till
20 years, the second is the period of 20-30 years since construction and the
third is 30-40 years since construction. More measures will be applied later
to account for all the mitigation measures taken by GASCO and the
difference between the Egyptian and European geographical terrain.
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0.8 1.30
1.0 1.11
1.2 0.92
1.4 0.73
1.6 0.54
1.8 0.35
2.0 0.157
Thus a reduction factor of 0.92 (for 1.2 m depth) will be used in this study.
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Flood 19%
River 6%
Mining 5%
Dike break 1%
Lightning 3%
Other 2%
Unknown 9%
The factors that were removed are flood, mining, dike break and lightning
while the land slide factor was reduced to the third of its value to take into
consideration that the delta areas is far enough from the tectonic plates
boundaries, which are the main earthquakes reason, unlike some of the
contributing countries in the EGIG data like Italy and Spain.
The frequency of full-bore rupture after taking into account the marker tape
and depth of cover in the external interference factor and adjusting the
ground movement factor is shown in Table 6 -8.
Table 6-8: Final Frequency after Adjustments for three years Categories
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It is important to note that the construction/ material defect factor will not
appear as a considerable factor except after 20 years since the pipeline was
built and will only slightly increase after 10 more years. Therefore three
calculations were made to take into consideration the change in this factor.
Possible sources of ignition include but are not limited to: direct heat
(Smoking, cooking, etc.), electrical current (lights, irrigation pumps, tractors,
cars, etc.), lightning, etc.
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7 ASSUMPTIONS
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The basic aim of this Assumptions chapter is to document the details
underpinning this QRA study.
Background data:
The site-specific aspects that apply (or potentially apply) to each of the
release scenarios (failure cases) modeled are referred to as background
data. This covers the meteorological conditions and the potential ignition
sources that are specific to the site, and the potentially exposed populations.
General assumptions:
The basic methodology adopted for studies of this kind is set out in the
following sections, in order to describe the basis for the defined scenarios
and modeling approach. It should be emphasized that elements of these
sections are generic and are intended to define the broad approach only.
UK HSE guidance suggests that good practice for QRA studies is to assume
that D5 conditions apply for 80% of the time and F2 for the remaining 20% -
again, in the absence of detailed data only.
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Please note that the above figure is based on the True North. The data
provided is based on annual averages and, hence, is applied to the risk
model as being the same for all time periods (e.g. day and night).
Val Unit
Parameter Notes
ue
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Surface
22 C Taken as the same as air temperature, above.
temperature
Atmospheric 1.01
bar Negligible influence on dispersion /consequences.
pressure 3
The levels at which impairment from fires occurs are defined for three
radiation levels, of greater than 37.5 kW/m 2, 12.5 kW/m2 and 4.7
kW/m2which are referenced within the risk model as flame, radiation
and Injury impacts, respectively.
For the 4.7 kW/m2 radiation level the risk of injury assigned is 50
chances in million years.
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Gas released.
Release location (the area in which the release occurs, including the
height).
Isolation.
For each of the pipe sections, up to five representative release sizes are
considered:
Medium, Small and Very Small leaks (e.g. due to corrosion, impact
and other such cases) 25, 12 and 2 mm (1, and 1/10)
equivalent diameter leaks respectively.
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In case of immediate ignition after the release the result is jet fire.
The consequences are input to the risk model in groups of hazard type,
which depend upon the type of release and when ignition occurs, as
summarized Table 7 -11 below. Note that this table addresses flammable
impacts only; toxic impacts will also apply for unignited releases depending
on the composition.
All delayed ignition events are modeled as flash fires or VCEs (not
applicable for this study).
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Flash fires are based on the LFL (Lower Flammability Level) distance
(not applicable for this study).
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8 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
8.1 GENERAL HAZARDS
The first step in any risk assessment is to identify all hazards. The merits of
including the hazard for further investigation are subsequently determined
by its significance, normally using a cut-off or threshold quantity.
Table 8 -12 shows the general hazards that were found for the N.G. pipeline,
along with possible causes, expected consequences and proposed or
inherent safeguards.
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Hazard
Site Area Hazard Cause Proposed / Inherent Safeguard
Consequence
pipeline marker signs to be installed at regular
intervals
The national control center (NATA) will be used to
control and isolate the areas at risk immediately
in case of emergencies
The choice of the main pipelines paths to be
outside the residential areas
External Leak/rupture, Increasing the awareness about the pipeline in the
Pipeline
interference ignition, jet fire, flash nearby communities through patrol squads
Coordination with the local authorities and the
concerned authorities about the pipeline path and
maps to be taken into consideration when
approving any new projects or constructions
The thickness of the pipeline is chosen to match
the population class near the highly populated
areas
hydrostatic test at a pressure of 1.5 times the
maximum operating pressure before operating
The most up-to-date internal testing systems are
Leak/rupture,
Pipeline Construction error applied to discover any defects and fix them early
ignition, jet fire, flash
The internal testing system is repeated
periodically and the results are compared against
the previous test results
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Hazard
Site Area Hazard Cause Proposed / Inherent Safeguard
Consequence
External coating system corrosion protection
Corrosion resistant internal lining
Leak/rupture,
Pipeline Corrosion Gases transmitted must not contain any corrosive
ignition, jet fire, flash
materials
Cathodic protection systems are applied
land is flat with no subsidence potential
Use of Horizontal Directional Drilling as a
Ground Movement, Leak/rupture,
Pipeline construction method for water way crossings
Earthquake ignition, jet fire, flash
Use of steel pipes which are flexible enough to
take the shape of the ground beneath it
Inherent flexibility and strength of gas
transmission pipelines and equipment
Equipment failure Gas release Closed rooms for security
NG Valve causing leaks due Jet fire if ignited QA, welding inspection
rooms to corrosion or Flash fire if ignition is Hydrostatic testing of equipment
defects delayed Radiography of circumferential welds ultrasonic
on pipes
Maintenance/inspection
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It is noted that natural gas is lighter than air (i.e. a buoyant gas) and if
released tends to rise and disperse rather than accumulate forming a
flammable cloud thus it is not possible for Vapor Cloud Explosion to occur.
Length 104 km
Flood Damage this may occur where the fitting line traverses river
beds or water courses. The potential for fast running water could lead
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to scouring above the fitting line exposing the pipe to potential impact
from rocks and debris moving in the water stream. In addition, surface
flooding could lead to the fitting line floating from the trench, leading
to fitting line damage. A review of the fitting line route indicates that
the fitting line will be laid away from flood areas. Additionally,
Horizontal Directional Drilling will be used as a construction method for
waterway crossings. Hence, this hazard has not been carried forward
for further analysis.
External Corrosion Damage many soils are acidic and fitting lines
installed without external protection are susceptible to corrosion and
eventual failure (leaks). The fitting line is installed underground and
hence is exposed to acidic soils increasing the potential for external
corrosion. Therefore, polyethylene coating is applied for protection as
well as cathodic protection. Incidents involving external corrosion
(excluding impact) have not been carried forward for further analysis.
Faulty Material the use of faulty materials, such as fitting line with
manufacturing defects, could lead to premature fitting line failure
resulting in rupture. However, pipe material will be purchased from a
quality assured organization (i.e. ISO9001), which minimizes the
potential for faulty materials. Further, the fitting line will be fully tested
in accordance with the appropriate requirements, including a pressure
test to prove fitting line will operate safely and without failure at
maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP). The quality assurance
testing regime minimizes the potential for fitting line failure as a result
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Ground Movement this may occur where fitting lines are installed in
an earthquake zone. Earthquakes and excessive ground movement
may lead to damaged pipe racks and buckled pipework or, in the worst
case, rupture. However, the fitting line would not be installed in an
earthquake zone. Delta area is relatively stable and earthquakes of the
magnitude that could result in fitting line rupture are rare. The risk of
ground movement is slightly taken into consideration in the frequency
of pipe rupture, as not all the ground movement factors are present for
the proposed pipeline.
Hot Tap by Error hot tap is the connection to a live gas line
during operation. When this is conducted by expert personnel the risk
is negligible. However, failure to identify a live gas fitting line and
attempts, by error, to connect to this fitting line could lead to fitting
line breach and gas release. To identify gas fitting line, marker signs
will be installed on the fitting line in accordance with the appropriate
requirements. This incident therefore, has not been carried forward for
further analysis.
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Note that the failure case definition presented in this section is underpinned
by the methodology set out in Section 7.
9.2 METHODOLOGY
For the purposes of this risk assessment it is not necessary (or practical) to
attempt to model all of the potential hazards associated with all the points of
the pipeline. The basic approach adopted instead is summarized below.
The scenario is carried out at the valve rooms and then extended over
the whole pipeline length
Two risk values were considered 1 x 10 -6 and 5 x 10-7 per year, where
the first value represents the risk of fatality and the second represents
the risk of injury.
These failure cases are then superimposed upon the image of the
pipeline on Google Earth to define the populated areas that are at risk
from this line.
Note that the general methodology adopted in deriving the initial failure
cases, and the subsequent development of each, is detailed in Section 7 .
Note also that the subsequent modeling approach is also described in
Section 7.
The failure cases derived for each unit are presented in the following section.
The section includes a basic description of the failure case, as well as the
representative flow conditions and the primary hazard outcome(s) of each
release.
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Due to the insignificance of the risk due to the hole compared to the full-bore
rupture, as detailed in Section 7, therefore the hole consequence is not
carried forward for investigation.
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10 CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT
The consequence of the failure cases were estimated using the methodology
of Section5 and the assumptions detailed in Chapter7. Consequences
presented here are jet fire consequence as the flash fire consequence was
found to be negligible compared to the jet fire consequence.
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11 RISK ASSESSMENT
The Risk assessment is based on the data presented in Section6. Before
calculating the risk, the rupture was first assumed to be at every point in the
pipeline each representing a separate case. Then during the risk assessment
the risk for each heat radiation contour was calculated, and the risks of all
cases were added to reach the final result which shows the risk as a function
of the distance from the center of the pipeline.
The distance from the center of the pipe to the 1 x 10 -6 and 5 x 10-7 risk
contours (fatality and injury) was obtained from the Risk Distance curve
(Figure 11 -8). From the time of construction and until 20 years the 1 x 10 -6
risk contour does not appear and the distance for the 5 x 10 -7 risk contour is
80 m in average. Between 20 30 years of operation the 1 x 10 -6 risk contour
does not appear again and the distance for the 5 x 10 -7 risk contour is 180 m
in average. Between 30 - 40 years of operation the 1 x 10 -6 risk contour has
an average distance of 35 m and 190 m for the 5 x 10-7 risk contour.
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Figure 11-8: Risk at 70 bar pressures as afunction of distance from center of pipeline at 1.2 m depth of cover
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12 RISK RESULTS
The risks were calculated from the results of the consequence analysis of the
failure cases and the estimation of the frequencies of those cases. The
frequencies were estimated based on the assumptions; data and practices
explained in Sections 6&7 and are presented in Section 12.1.
Individual risks are the key measure of risk acceptability for this type of
study, where it is proposed that:
Individual risks are presented in Section 12.2, while risk to the public is
presented in Section.12.3
Table 12-13 : Frequencies used for all the cases at the three operation years
categories
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4.7 kW/m2
Figure 12 -9 shows the villages that are present around the pipeline with
their positions as a reference, these villages are:
Al-Iman
Badr
Umar Makram
Umar Shahin
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Izbt Ar-Raml
Kafr Mansour
Sheshaa
Darawah
Al-Shurfa Al-Gharbia
Al-Baradah
At 1.2 m depth of cover and in the operating time till 20 years, Figure 12 -10
and Figure 12 -11 represent the two affected villages which are Izbt Masjid
Ar-Rahman and Al-Baradah consecutively, these villages are affected by the
5x10-7 risk of injury contour only.
The 5 x 10-7 touches Izbt Masjid Ar-Rahman and covers small part of Al-
Baradah village
Figure 12 -12 to Figure 12 -16 are focused on the villages that fall within the
risk contours after 20 years of operation and until 30 years, where it can be
seen that:
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The 5 x 10-7 passes through Izbt Masjid Ar-Rahman, Izbt Sidi Ibrahim,
Izbt Jamal Al-Faransawi, Kafr Mansour and Al-Baradah villages.
Figure 12 -17 to Figure 12 -23 are focused on the villages that fall within the
risk contours after 30 years of operation and until 40 years, where it can be
seen that:
The 10-6 individual risk contour just barely exists and does not affect
any nearby villages except Al-Baradah village (see note below
regarding this village)
The 5 x 10-7 passes through Izbt As-Sukhna Al-Jadida, Izbt Masjid Ar-
Rahman, Izbt Sidi Ibrahim, Izbt Jamal Al-Faransawi, Kafr Mansour,
Darawa and Al-Baradah villages.
From the above results it is apparent that the 1x10 -6 risk of fatality contour
will not appear except after more than 30 years of operation, and even then,
its effect will be negligible and is expected not to reach any of the nearby
villages. However, it is recommended to put this risk in consideration for
future expansion of the areas adjacent to the pipeline.
The F-N curve, Figure 12 -24, gives the cumulative frequency (F) of
exceeding a number of fatalities (N). In the region between the red and the
green lines the risks are acceptable only if demonstrated to be As Low As
Reasonably Practicable (ALARP).
The maximum frequency is marked by a black line for the operating periods:
less than and greater than 20 years. The figure indicates that the number of
fatalities is the number of individuals present outdoors in the fire area with
no barrier separating them from the accident source. The Figure shows that:
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Based on the low population density along the path of the pipeline, and the
small affected area by the 10 -6 contour, it is to be concluded that the risk will
never exceeds the ALARP border for the whole lifetime of the pipeline,
resulting in an acceptable level of risk.
12.4 RECOMMENDATIONS
The results of this QRA report show that the 1 x 10-6 risk contour (which is the
risk of fatality to the public) does not appear except after 30 years of
operation and even then has a negligible effect. However the 5x10 -7 risk of
injury contour appears but with a limited effect and it is acceptable for
population to exist within its vicinity.
GASCO will take all possible actions to organize building construction and
encroachment around both banks of the pipeline. Also, they are committed
to coordinate with local authorities about any new projects to be constructed
in the area of the project. This will limit the effect of any accident to a great
extent.
Rapid isolation of significant leaks will not eliminate the risks but will help to
further minimize the hazards and, particularly, the ignition probability (by
limiting the total mass of flammable gas released). For isolation to be
effective first requires detection to occur. Close monitoring and rapid
shutdown of the pipeline in case of an emergency are important to limiting
the effects of leaks.
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Al-Iman
Umar Makram
Umar Shahin
Izbt Sidi
Ibrahim Shesha
Izbt Jamal Al-
a
Faransawi
Al-Shurfa Al-
Kafr
Gharbia
Mansur
Al-
Baradah
Izbt Ar-Raml
Darawa
Figure 12-9: Pipeline path general view showing the fourteen villages around the pipeline
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NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-10: Less than 20 years Individual Risk Contours at Izbt Masjid Ar-Rahman (10 -6 risk contour does not
appear)
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NG Pipeline
Al-Baradah
1 x 10-6 Risk
Village
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-11: Less than 20 years Individual Risk Contours at Al-Baradah Village (10 -6 risk contour does not
appear)
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NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-12: 20 30 years Individual Risk Contours at Izbt Masjid Ar-Rahman Village (10 -6 risk contour does not
appear)
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Izbt Sidi
Ibrahim
NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-13: 20 30 years Individual Risk Contours at Izbt Sidi Ibrahim(10 -6 risk contour does not appear)
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NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-14: 20 -30 years Individual Risk Contours at Izbt Jamal Al-Fransawi (10-6 risk contour does not appear)
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Kafr Mansur
NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-15:20 - 30 years Individual Risk Contours at Kafr Mansour Village (10 -6 risk contour does not appear)
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NG Pipeline
Al-
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level Baradah
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-16: 20 30 years Individual Risk Contours at Al-Baradah Village (10 -6 risk contour does not appear)
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NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
Figure 12-17: 30 -40 years Individual Risk Contours at Izbt As-Sukhna Al-Jadida
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NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
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Izbt Sidi
Ibrahim
NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
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NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
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Kafr
Mansour
NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
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Darawa
Village
NG Pipeline
1 x 10-6 Risk
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
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NG Pipeline
Al-
1 x 10-6 Risk Baradah
Level
5 x 10-7 Risk
Level
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Al-
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Figure 12-24: F-N curve marking the ALARP zone and the frequency for less than and greater than 20 years of
operation
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13 BIBLIOGRAPHY
Abdul Rosyid, O. (2006). System-analytic Safety Evaluation of the Hydrogen
Cycle for Energetic Utilization. Otto-von-Guericke-University.
Bolt, R., & Horalek, V. (2004). European Gas pipeline Incident Data Group
Pipeline Incident Database. 13th Colloquium Reliability of HP Steel Pipes.
Prague, Czech Republic.
EGIG, E. G. (2008). 7th EGIG Report 1970 - 2007, Gas Pipeline Incidents Data
Group (EGIG). Report Number EGIG08.TV-B.0502.
Technica. (1990). Atmospheric Storage Tank Study for Oil and Petrochemical
Industries Technical and Safety Committee. Singapore.
TNO. (1997). Methods for the calculation of physical effects, (3 ed., Vol. 2).
The Hague: Committee for the Prevention of Disasters.
Witlox, H., & Bowen, P. (2001). Flashing liquid jets and two-phase dispersion
A review. HSE.
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APPENDICES
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Section A1.2 describes the basis for the risk criteria, introducing the
widely accepted As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) concept.
Section A1.3sets out the criteria that are proposed for this study,
covering both individual and societal risk criteria.
1. The activity should not impose any risks which can reasonably be
avoided.
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The following approach is proposed for assessing the risks from any
hazardous activity, being the nearest practical approach to the ideal
situation:
An activity is said to have tolerable risks if it satisfies all three aspects of this
approach, and intolerable risks if it fails to meet any of them.
Leaving aside other inputs to the decision, an activity with tolerable risks
would generally be regarded as acceptable to the company, the regulatory
authority and the public, while an activity with intolerable risks would
generally be regarded as unacceptable.
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A1.2.3 FRAMEWORK
The simplest framework for risk criteria is a single risk level which divides
tolerable risks from intolerable ones (i.e. acceptable activities from
unacceptable ones). Such criteria give attractively simple results, but they
need to be used very carefully, because they do not reflect the uncertainties
both in estimating risks and in assessing what is tolerable. For instance, if
applied rigidly, they could indicate that an activity which just exceeded the
criteria would become acceptable as a result of some minor remedial
measure which in fact scarcely changed the risk levels.
An upper band where risks are intolerable whatever the benefit the
activity may bring. Risk reduction measures or design changes are
considered essential.
A negligible region where the risks are negligible and no risk reduction
measures are needed.
There is some consensus on this three-band approach, and versions are used
by the UK, Dutch, Swiss and US Santa Barbara criteria.
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The most widely-used criteria for individual risks are the ones proposed by
the UK HSE (Reference 1), noting that these can also be used for projects in
Egypt.
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put these risks into context, note that the risk of death in the UK
due to road accidents is just over 1 in 10,000 years, while the risk of
an individual being struck by lightning is widely quoted as being 1 in
10,000,000 years.
For risks approaching the maximum tolerable individual risk level for
the public of 10-4peryear (1 in 10,000 years) to be considered to be
acceptable, it should be demonstrated that all reasonably
practicable measures to minimize the risks have been, or will be,
taken. The same applies for risks closer to the acceptable criterion
of 10-6per year, but where the degree of effort (and expenditure)
that would be considered to be practicable would be less.
For risks to the public a lower / tolerable criterion of 10 -6per year is widely
accepted. However, lower values are adopted by some companies and
legislators. For example, Statoil have a lower criterion of 10 -7 per year and
where for new facilities the Dutch authorities use 10 -6 per year as the upper /
maximum criterion.
It should also be noted that lower criteria are often adopted with respect to
vulnerable populations, such that schools and hospitals, for example, should
be located such that the individual risks are well below 10-6 per year.
The maximum criterion for the public varies between 10 -3 and 10-5 per year
(or lower in some cases as indicated above). The UK HSE value of 10 -4 per
year is maintained in this study as a representative maximum. However, it
should be emphasized that this is a maximum value and it would be
extremely rare for this level to be considered acceptable for a new facility /
development. That is, there is unlikely to be sufficient justification that there
are no practicable methods of reducing this level of risk. In fact, it is
considered to be best practice to treat 10 -6 per year as the target criterion,
while risks of up to 10 -5 per year would require strong justification and risks
above 10-5 per year should be avoided with respect to the public.
It should, in any case, be emphasized that risks above 10 -6 per year are
acceptable only if shown to be ALARP.
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However, the UK HSE do quote a single point risk criterion which has been
interpreted to form an F-N criterion, as shown in Figure A- . The maximum
tolerable risk line is based on a standard 1:1 slope through the UK HSEs
quoted intolerable societal risk level of 50 or more fatalities occurring with a
frequency of 1 in 5000 years (N=50 and F=2 x 10 -4 per year). The minimum
(broadly acceptable) risk line is simply assumed to be two orders of
magnitude lower.
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