Article 27 Policy Analysts: A Ncw Professional Rule in Govern~elll Service
in addhlon lo economics) of the small number nol dispuragc the lmportnnce of systerns unaly-
Policy Auntysts: A NClV
PI'OfCSSOlWi Rolc lJ.
Govcnuneut SCl'l'icc'
Yehezk! Dror
1111~main contcmpornry rclunu movcmeut
iuthe rcueral udmlnisnntion olthe Unlted Stntes
(ami in SUIll~ other cUlllllric.~ as well) is bnsed
1111:\11 ccunumic appnlac:h lu puhlic dccisiun-
uiuking. The roots of this approach ure ln eco-
nouiic Ihe\\I")'. cspccinlly microcconomlcs IIlId
wcllurc ccmunnics, und l(lI:1111!lIlivcdcclslon-
thcory; the mnln iools of Ihis appronch are op-
eral ious rcscurch, cost-effcctiveness aud cost-
bencfit unalysls, and program budgeting and
systems aualysis; and the new professionals of
this nppronch are !lle sysiems nnulysts. To-
gether, hese elerucnts constitute main cornpo-
ncnts nf UICPlnnniug-Progrununlng-Budgeting
Systcm, as first devcloped in the Depnrtrncnt of
Dcfeuse ano now being extended lo most exec-
utivc deparuuents and establlshmems.
ln essence, these reforms constitute an
iuvaslon of public decisiou-making by eco-
1I11I11ic.~. Ooing fur beyono Ihe uOIIIill of ecq-
m\lllk 11l1Iic)'makillg. Ule CCOIIOlllicapproach'
In drdsioll-mllkillg views cvery dcdsioll as an
illlocalioll of resources bClweclI allcmalivcs,
Ihal is. as tUl ecollomie prob\em. Applienlioll
ul' SlIilhle lools of ccolloll1ic annlysis should .
Ihrrdorc. ill' Ulis upinillll,. conlribule lo Ihe
illlprnvemelll of dcdsioll-mukillg, whulever
Ihe slll~jl:CI maller of Ihe deci~ion muy be.
'Illis is U1CIIli1ill illllovalioll of lhe Plullning,-
I'rn~ralllllling-BlIdgeting Syslem, which is in
csscllce a reslalemenl of carlier budgeting Ihe-
ory eombined with syslems analysis nnd put
illlo 1I cohercnl and inlegrnted framework.l
pcrmisdol\ rmlll Pub/k A,/Uli"btmfl(J1I
SlIIurt: RC(lfinlrd \\'ilh
flr:dtW. o lY61 by lhe American Sucidy Cm Puhl1c Admini,-
tnlllun IASPA}. 1110 O Stfcd NW. Suile 700, WnshiuglDl',
D.C.lIJlXI5.
AIIr\~hu , c,ved.
251
(
af higlily gifted indivlduals who ploneered sys- sls for operational planning and control" or the
tern analysis, Instead, we must dcvelop instltu- essential contributions of systerns analysis as
tionai arrangernents, professional training, and one of the bases of a broader professional dis-
job denitlons which will provide the desired cipline of policy unulysis. But by itsclf, or as a
outputs with good and hopefully very good, but pnrt of PPBS, systcrns analysis cannol deal
The invasion of public decision-rnaklng by
economics is both unavoidable and beneclal,
not necessarlly outstanding. personnel. . with issues and situntions where the prublem
but frnught with danger. lt is unuvoiduble be-
When we look al the basic charncteristlcs of is to move on frorn one appreclutivesystern! or
systerns analysis as a professlonal discipline multidirnenslonal space to another, or lo get
cause cconomics providcs the only highly de-
(as distlnguished from the personalwlsdom of from one curve lo a dlfferent curve.
velopcd theoretical basis for im~rovement in .
some of lts pioneers), a number of weaknesses
highly critical decixion-making processes. lt is
can be identified. These weakncsses are not Possible Boornerang Efects
beueficinl because the economic approuch in
trunsitcry Ieatures of u new discipline, but seem
the systems analysis nud PPBS Iorm CM con-
lo be endernic to thenature and origin of sys- Even so, a good prima facie argurnent can
tribute lo the improvement of public decislon-
terns analysis nnd ure lntroduced through lt luto be mude roe taking systerns anulysis as il is
muking. ir curcfulty utlllzcd. It is frnllghl wilh
PPBS. und upplyinl,l it tu public dcclsion-muking. The
dungers bccuuse of the inabilily lo dcul ude-
Some of the lmportant weuknesses of sys- principal cluims in favor of this posirion are
quntely with many critlcnl elernents of public
terns aoalysis Irom the point of view of public that systcms aOlllysi.~ will nI leust pcrmit sume
policy-muklug und the poxsible dixtortiou in
decisiun-mnklng can. be summed up us follows: 1 hnprovcmeius in. public dccislon-rnuklng. Tu
decislon-maklng resultlng therefrom ..
paraphrnse one of the founders of medern sys-
A maiu queson is how lo reup the full
1. Strongnttachment to quantifiction and de- tems anulysis, even in the situations where
benefits of L1ie eeonomie npproach and to
pendence upon it, including both need for leehnology and objectives change very swiftly,
improve public decision-making and policy-
quantitntlve models and for quuntitatlve pa- good systems analysis wiU al least try lo get 01\
making while nvoidlng its pitfnlls. 111is question
rnmeters for the vurinbles appearing in the Un entirely different curve und 1I0t look for 1I
becomes more ami more acute with the preseru
models, peak of u nuher Ilnt curvc," Furthcrmorc, wilh
tendency to npply PPBS and systerns analysis
2. Incapuclty to de al with couflictiug IIOIICOIII- the hclp uf sysicms nnalysis und PPBS-lio thc
throughout governmcntal ndrnlnistrntlon,
rncnsurate vaues (othcr thnn Ihrough neu- nrgumcnt may go-nt the veoy lcast, we will
tralizing the lssue when possible, by seek- begin lo get out of thc rote of Inertia and incre-
Systerns Analysis ing out value-insensitive altemauves), mental change onto the hlghway of doubting
and Decslon-Making 3. Requirement of c\elU'-~ut criteria of deci- conventlonal wisdom and lntroducing desir-
sion and well-dcfined missions. nble inuovntions,
111considering the dangers of syslem analy-
4. 'Neglecl of Ihe problemsof polilicul feuNibil- Thcsc urgumenls wOllld be valid if one con-
sis (by ilself lllld ns a erilica\ Pll'l of PPBS), we
ity IUld of the special ehoraclcristicli of po- diliol\ is met, numely, thul boUI the profcssiunal
musl kcep in l\Iilld nn importnnl cOlIsiderutiun:
ltical resourecs (such as the power-produc- . syslems annlysls and the senior slll'ond Hne l)f
1 necept as a faet Ihat system.~ unlllysis hus
ing elfecI of using politicw powee).l !lle agencies in which iliey serve ure highly so-
mude very important, UlOugh limiled conlri-
5. Luck of significant trealment of esselllal phislicaled in respecl to ilie possibilities und
bulions lo beUer decision-making up to now,
extfll-flIliollUI decision elemenls, sueh liS Iimilulons of systems unulysls. Bu! Ihis is II
especiully in Ihe Depnrlmenl of Defense, but
creulivity, Incl! knowledge, and jlldgment. complclely unrealislic reqllirement. The suc-
much of Ihis eonlribulioll may have be en due
6. Innbillly lo den! with lurge nnd eomplell CC5ses of syslcms nnalysis in some domnins
more lo Ule wisdom. sophistieulion, and open-
syslems olher !han llirough suboptimiza- in Ihe Depurlmenl of Defense, ilie brilliunce of
mindedness of Ihe few oulslanding practioners
tion, which desu'ays ilie overull Ge.r/all of ils main pioneen and first pruclitioners, und lhe
of syslems anolysis und Iheir reudiness to fighl
ilie more difficult and in volved issues. exaggerated cluims of some of ils udvocutes
organizational inertin ando muddling-ilirough
7. Lnck of inslrumenls for taking inlo Dceounl nnd proponenls combine lo crea le an unrenlis-
lendencies ilian lO Ihelr defined professional
individunl motivlllons, irralional behllvior, lie level of expcctalioll. Belng evuluated in
lools. Now systems anulysis is lo beeome a
and human Idiosyncfllsy. telIDS of such un unreallslic level of expecta-
profession wilh defined job responsibilities
tion, systems UI1ulysis and PPBS will oflen be
Ihroughout government, lo be praelieed by a
As a resull of lhese weuknesses, syslems judged as 11 failure ..As n result, lhere is 11 great
Illfger group of specially lrained staff officers.
allulysis as such is of daubtful utility for deul- nsk lhal !he slrong unti-innovnrion forces wlll
If this is so, we cannot rely any longer on Ihe
ing wilh politicul decisions, overull slrnlegie be vindiealed, will beeome stronger enlrcllched.
taell qualiLies and mulLiple backgrounds (in-
plunning, and pubUc policy-making. lllis does nd \ViII be heller able to appose signilicnnl re-
cluding, for inslance. physics and engineering.
252 Pan Three Frorn JFK 10 Civil Service Reforrn (1960s and 1970s) Article 27 Policy Analysts: A New Professional Role in Governmenl Service 253

fonns in the future. Unsoplsticated reliance support, accomrnodatons of contrndictiug ing, us in PPBS, mny be good for quantita- and estublishments, near the senior policy-
orr systerns analysis in this way may also un- goals, and recognition of diversity of val- tive analysis, but it is not a way to encour- determining positions, operating, in general, for-
pair and indeed nullify the porential benefits of ues, Especially important are development age and stimulate new and risky and expen- mally as advisory staff lo top executives and
other important parts of PPBS, such as future- of theories and construction of modela sive-looking policy ideas. senior line positions and actually establishing
orientntion and multiple-year programming. which do full justice lo the special charac- 4. There would be extensive reliance on tacit with them a symbiotic cooperative relation-
teristics of politics and political behavior understanding, Ge.r/all-images, qualitative ship. Certainly, the professional sta/I of tne fed-
From Systems and do not try to force thern into a pro- models, and qualitative rnethods (instead of eral Planning-Programming-Budgeting System
crustean bed of economic lerminology and main ernphasis on explicit knowledge and units should be trained also in policy analysis.
Analysis to Policy Analysis quantitative rnodels aiid.t06IS)~ This.involves
theory, Policy analysis does not presume to bring
What is needed is a more advanced type of 2. A broad conception of decision-making and imaginative thinking, systernatlc integra- about a radical chango in policy-making.It does
professionnl knowledge, which can be used with policy-making would be involved (instead tion of trained intuition nto policy analysis not presume to crea te ornniscient units, which
significan! benefits for the improvernent of pub- of viewing all decision-rnakng as mainly a (e.g., through the Delphi Method), devel- exist outside any socio-political-organizational
lie decision-maklng, This professional knowl- resources allocation), Many types of criti- oprnent of qualitative tools (such as meta- framework and operate by a "downward and
edge should do for publie decislon-rnaking in ca! decisions cannot be usefully approached phor construction, scenarios, counterfactual disaggregative ftow" of top policy and policy
vnrious issue-nrcns what systems annlysis did from nn economic resource allocation frame- thinking), and construction of broad quali- directions.!" Good policy analysis can al best
in sorne reas of defense decision-rnaking, To work, e.g., determining the content of tative rnodels of complex issues in coop- becorne an additional component in nggrega-
fillthis rather difficult order, the vnrious orienla-' diplomatic notes or changing the selective eral ion with social scientists and other tive policy-making, contributing to that process
tious, ideus, und tools of systems annlysis 11l1lSl draft lo a rundomlzed proccss, Here, quali- professionals (instead of ignoring the latter; Borne better analysis, sorne novel ideas, sorne
be developed so as lo be applicable lo complex tative exploration of new altematives is nec- in effect, or regarding thern as passive futuristic orientatlon, and sorne systernatic
nnd uonquantiable issues and sysrerns. Fur- essary, beyond quantitative analysis and cost- sources of quantitative data). thought, Policy analyses are one of the bridges
lhennore-and this is more important and benefit estirnation, 5. There would be much more ernphass on between science and politics.!' but they do not
more di!lieult-politics "and 110litical phenorn- 3. A main ernphasis would be on creativity "futuristic"! thinking wi!h long-range pre- transform the basic characte9~"tics of "the pollt-
ena must be put into the focus of analysis. The and search for new policy alternatives, wlth dictions, alternative states-of-the-future, and leal" and of organization ti~~avior.ll In order
term "poliey analysis" seernsjo be suitable for explicit attention lo encouragement of in- speculative thinking on the future (in most lo contri bu te to the impr~~i:ment of policy-
the proposed professional displine, as it com- novative thinking (instead of comparatve areas up lo the year 2000) as essential back- making, policy analysts sheuld be dispersed
bines offinity with systerns analysis wth the analysis of available alternatives and syn- ground for current policy-making. throughout the higher echelons of government
concept of poliey in the br~ad and political thesis of new altematives as one of the 6. The approach would be looser and less service (and, indeed, throghout the social
sense} elernents of analysis). A good example is rigid, but nevertheless systematic, one which guidance cluster) as part of the effort to irn-
In essenee, what is required is an integration the problem of reducing smoking-where would recognize the cornplexity of means- prave aggregate policy-making through intro-
between revised disciplines of political scienee the problern is clearly one of inventing ends interdependence, the multiplicity of ducing into the c1ash and interaction berween
nnd public administration on the one hand and new prornising alternatives, rather than relevant criteria of decisin, and the partial competing partisan intcrests'? an additional
sySICIlISnnnlysis, decision theory, and econornic cost-benefit analysis ofdifferent known al- and tentative nature of every analysis (in- elemenr.n Such redundancy will increase the
thcory on the other hand. This cornbination ternatives, none of which is good. The re- steud of striving for a olear-cut criterion aggregate effect of policy analysis on policy-
should be in the form of a compound rather quirement of creativity and innovation of a!- and dominant solutions). In policy analysis, making, while also providing a safeguard against
than a rnlx, so as to provide a more advanced ternatives has far-reaching implications, as sequential decision-rnaking and constant trained incapacities, one-sided value bias, and
f(lfm of knowledge, nl!her Ulan an eclectic col- there is reason to suspect incompatibility learning is dominant,? and c1arification of professional prejlldice~.
leClion of 1I1U'elaled ilems. Care must be taken between !he personality traits, training, and isslles, invention of new altematives, more The main rale of policy analysts in govem-
to aehieve a real syn!hesis, ra!her !han an U11- organizational ammgements optunal for consideration of the future, and reduction of menl-as parts of PPBS, in distinct rugh-level
critieal subordination of !he political to eco- analysis (in the strict meaning of !he term) prfilary disagreements to secondary dis- staffuruts, in separate independenl advisory cor-
nonc models, in wruch the specific features of and !hose optirn"al for invention of alterna- agreemenlS are main goals. porations, and in various o!her organizational
politics may be lost. tives. The latler requires more "creative" locations-is to conlribute to public decision-
To clarify !he idea, let me point out some personalities, slructural too1s to search for Policy Analysts as making a braad professional competence, based
main features of policy analysis, as compared new ideas (for instance, through knowledge- Government Staff Officers simultaneously on syslems analysis and quanti-
wilh syslem analysis. surveys), pro-innovating orgaruzational ar- talive decision-!heory and on a new outlook in
rangemenlS (e.g., cross-fertilization and To introduce urgenUy needed improvements politica! science and public admirstration. The
1. Much attention would be paid to !he politi- stimulation through brain truslS and inler- in public decision-making, wrule avoiding !he Bm of policy analysis is lo perrrt improve-
cal aspecls of public decision-making and disciplinary tearns), imaginBtive and prorisk possible boomerang effects of systems ana!y- ments in decision-mak:ing and policy-making
public policy-making (inslead of ignoring entrepreneurship atmosphere, and changes sis, policy analysis musl become an important by permitting fuller consideration of a broader
or condescendingly regarding poltica! as- in overall orgaruzational climale (e.g., rais- new professional rale in govenunent service. set of altematives. within a wider conlext, wi!h
peclS).lrus includes much anention lO prob- ing organizationa! levels of aspiraon). Policy ana!ysis stalf positions should be estab- !he help of more syslematic 1001s. No meta-
.. ...' .

Tllule 1
A Tent"llve COlllpllriSOIl oe Sume I~elllures ue Systems
Feature Systems Analysls
Base discipline Econornics, operntlons re-
senrch, qunntitntive deci-
sien sciences
Muin emphasis Qunntitutive unnlysis .
~1;lin desired qunlities of Bright, nonconventional,
professionals annlytlcal capacities
Maiu decisiou criterio Elficiency in allocntion of
resources
Muin mcthods Economic analysis, quantita-
tive model constructlon
Muin location In PPBS-in Burenu of the
Budget and agency budget
units
Muin outputs when applied lo Clearly better decisions with
public dccision-mnking respect to llmltcd Issues;
possible booiucrnng eflect
if upplicd to highly COI1\-
plex political issues
Requisites for developmcnt of Already operutionnl; further
knowledge and prepnration development requires
of professiouals some changes in uni-
versity cunicula
plex pubLie deeision-muking and policy-muking
Allalysi~ "lid Policy Analysis
can be uchieved Ihrough beuer lntegrution of
Icnowledge and policy-rnaklng with the help of
Policy AlJalysis
pocy analysis-and
As systerns analysls,plllS
politicul science, public
adminlstration, parts of
the social sciences nnd
psychology (in the future,
new luterdlsclpline of
policy sciences)
Qualitutive analysls and inno-
vatlon of new alternatives
high As systernsanalysis, plus
rnuturity, explicit and tacit
knowlcdge of political
and admiuistrative reality,
lrnagination, and idealistie
rcnlism
Multiple criteria, including
social, economic, and
political
As systerns analysis, plus
qualltatlve models nnd
analyses, irnnglnative
and futuristlc thought,
nnd inlegration of tncit
knowledge
Throughout the social guid-
nnce cluster in different
fonns
Somewhat better decisions
011 highly c~ll1pl~~ nnd
polilicnl issues; educa-
tionul impact on polirical
nrgumentation and long-
ruuge improvements in
operation of public policy-
making system
Changes in orientation of
polltical science nnd pub-
\ic adrInistration as aca-
dcmic disciplines-
establislunent of new
university curriculn und
of new polcy science
inlerdisciplines
improvcments of, say, 10 lo 15 percent in com-
this is a 101. 111is, Lthink,
ls certninly much more than cnn be achieved
by systems analysis, cutside rclatively simple
issue-areus and sub-systems.
lt is prernature to try and set down in detnil
the characterlstics of the new professionul rule
of pollcy anulysls in government. TI1ese must
be evolved largely through a careful proeess of
learning and sequeruial decislon-rnaklng. Nev-
enheless, some suggestive features can be pre-
sented tentatively in the form of a comparison
between, systems nnalysis and policy anulysis
(ree Tnble 1).
Some Implications
111e decislon in 1965 lo jntroducc PPBS in:
ihe federal udministration and the: preparatlon .
for including a social repon in the Stute o the
Union message u both provde u the United
States an opportunity to introduce policy
nna1ysis as a new professional role in govern-
ment servlce and crente an urgent need lo do so
as expedleruly as possible. 111is involves a
number of stcps,
Irnrnedlntcly needed is a change in concep-
tlon in respect lo the inlroduction of PPBS,
with explicit recognltion, of the necessity to
move in the direction o policy analysis. Asal-
ready polnted.out, fue main ploneers of systerns
nnnlysis are highly sophisticated in their sub-
stantivc work and ocn actually practlce some
poUey analysis. This actual sophisticatlon must
be put into the formallzed system and institu-
tionalized directives. More lrnportnnt still, the
schernes for tranlng of staf for PPBS at the
VIl.riOUSspecial university programa must be
ehnnged, so as lo movefrom nearly exclusive
preoccupatlon wilh qualitatlve methods lo full
ernphasls of quantitative nnd poliUcal analy-
SiS.16 Laler on, policy analysis unil~ of dilferent
forms should be established at focal decision
ceuters throughout !he social guidnnce clusler.
The development of poliey analysis de-
pends on I number of transformallons in lhe
disciplines of poltlcal selence und public ad-
minislralion. The one-sided Invasion of pub-
lie decision-rnuklng by econornics wus cuuscd
lurgcly by the iuahility o' modero politicul sci-
cnce und public udminlxtrutlun to mukc sigui-
Iicunt coruributions lo governmerua dcclsion-
making, Economics developcd a highly udvanccd
action-oriented iheory and pul it lo the test of
lnnovating economie policy-rnaking. At the
sume time, the modcrn study of pollticul scicncc
and public admlnlsuation becarne sterilizcd by
un escape from politlcal.lssues into behuvlorul
"value-free" research and theory, 01" exhnuscd
itself in suggestions for Inslgulficant increrncn-
tal improvemenls on the technicul level.
TIls trend must be revised. A new approach
in political science and public adrninlstraticn,
oriented towards the study and improveme.nl of
public policy-rnaklng, constitutes, in the longer
run, a main avenue for the improvcmcnt uf
public decision-mnklng.'? A new interdisci-
pline of"poliEy sclence", may ulso be necessary
lo provide u sound theoreticnl und lnsiluulonul
basis for policy analysis knowledge and policy
unalysis professionals. In the rneantlrnc, seri-
ous boornerang effects and dumage can nnd
should be avoided and the foundations for such
a study and profession can and should be lald
by changing the present efforts lo introduce
systems anulysis in governmcnl servicc in thc
dircction of pollcy anulysis.
Notes
1. 111is ls brought out both from the po-
pers publishcd In "Plannlng-Progmmrulng-
Budgetiug System: A Symposium," Pub.
Adtn. Rey. (Decernber 1966), pp. 243-310
(hcrenfter referred loas Sympo.riwlI) IIl1d
from the lieruture on prograrn budgetlng.
e.g., David Novick, ed., Program Budgetlug'
(Carnbridge: Harvard Univers1ty Presa, 1965).
The well-taken communicntion by Freder-
ick C. Mosher in Pub. Adm. Rev. (Mnrch
1967), pp, 67 - 7 1, menllons lhls Importllnl
innovation of PPBS, bUI does not glve It lhe
emphasis wh}eh it deserves.
2. Many of Ihe ploneers of syslems analysis are
aware of some of Ihesc wenknesses. A nllm-
ber of Ihcm huye len syslcms IInuly.~1sIUld
devole lhcmselvcs lo developmcnl of broad
 tools, rnainly in the area of srrategy and con-
flict studies (e.g., Herman Kahn and Albert
Wohlstetter). Others, al the Rand Corporation,
conrinue to broaden sysrerns analysis by de-
veloping non-quantitative tools, such as the
Delphi Me1Dd and Opcrariouul Gaming.
See, for instance, Olaf Hetrner, Social Tech-
nology (New York: Basic Books, 1966). Re-
cently, some irnportant and able efforts have
aI~o been mude to examine explicitly the re-
lations between systems analysis aud the
polltlcal process, thongh without adequate
auention to required and possible changes in
the methods of systems nnalysis, so as to
adjust them to broader political issues. See,
for insrance, Jarnes R.. Schlesinger, Systems
AIlClly.ri.r and tlie Politlcal Process (Santa
Monica: Rand Corp., 1967), p. 3464. These
are irnportant, though 100 timid. steps en the
way Irom system nnalysis to policy annlysis.
But "systems aualysis" as usually preseuted
and as it appears in PPBS does not share the
r-e , benefits ofthese first-step new advances,
3. The overwhelming i:fiuence of econornic
ideas inuences even{highly sophisticated
poltical scientists tovlew politicnl powcr
as similnr to econornic resourccs while ig-
noring the crlticul dlfferences-s-such as the
oen imrnedate pow[.-producing effect of
~- using political resources in the forrn of fa-
vors or coercive moves (see Symposium,
p. 309). The economic models of resources
which, for instance, can either be consumed
or invcnted with continuous. concave, pro-
duction possibility frontier curves do not ap-
ply lo politicul power,
4. For the distinction between strategic plan-
ning, managernent control, and operational
control, see Robert N. Anthony, Planning
atul Control Systems: A Framework for
A/la/ysis (Boston: Graduate School of Busi-
ness Administration, Hnrvard University,
1965).
5. F~;ihe concept of "appreciative system" and
ils importanee in public decision-making, see
Sir Geoffrey Vickers, TIle Arr of Jlldglllent:
A Sludy of Policy Makillg (New York: Basic
Books, 1965), chap. 4.
6. See Albert Wohlstetter, "Analysis and De-
sign of Confiiet Systems," in Ana/ys;s fOl
Military Decislons, ed. Edward S. Quade 13. Compare Charles E. Lindblom, The lntelli- Gross, 'ed., "Social Goals aud Indicators for
(Chicago: Rand McN~ly, J 964), p. 106. gence of Democracy (New York: Free Press, American Society,' Anllal. . of the America/l
7. One weakness of the terrn "analysis" is 1965). Academy of Potica! and Social Science
lts calculative-loglcnl connoration. In policy 14. The dangers of nonaggregative view of (May 1967). At present Senate hearings hnve
analysis a very important par! of the Job is policy-making are illuslrated by doubtful already started on S-843, which propoxcs es-
lo invent new ultcrnnrivcs and to engage in conclusions in respect to the effects of the tablishment of a council of social ndviscrs
creative and irnaginative !hinking. Never- establishment of the Council of Economic and an annual social report of the Presidcnt,
theless, I prefer a concept wlch somewhut Advisors (Syl/1posiu,,~ p. 254) and of unre- 16. Somepossibilities for doing so are illustrated
undersrates the role rather than toa presump- stricted federal grants-in-aid.JSYIIIPOsiul1I, by a seven-rnoruh gradate course for sys-
tuous, loa "poluical," and toa frightening a p. 268). See Edwar'cfs:'F!lIsli; jr.';'Econoll1ic terns and policy-analysis staf officcrs or-
term, such as "policy advertiser' or "policy Advice and Presidentlai Leadership (New ganized by the Israeli governrnent as part
cousultant." York: Columbia University Press, 1965), esp. of an effort to improve decision-making and
chap, 8 and 9; Walter W. Heller, New Dimen-
B. E.g., see Denuis Gabor, lnventing tlte Future udrninlstrarive p!anning. See Yehezkel Dror,
siol1s of Politlcal Econouiy (Cambridge:
(New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1964); Ber- "Improvernent of Decislon-Making and
Harvard University Press, 1966), chap. 3.
trand de Jouvenel, TI/e ,1.,.1 of Conjecture Adrnlrustrative Planning in the Israel Gov-
(New York: Baslc Books. 1967; French orig- 15. See Bertrarn M. Gross, The State of tiu: Na- ernrnent Adrninistration," in Public Adminis-
ina! published in (964). For an applicntion lo tion: Social Systems Accounting (Tavistock tration in Israel 011(1 Abroad 1966 (Jerusa-
political sciencc, sec Benjamin Akzin, "On Publications Ltd., 1966). An earlier version lem, 1967), pp. 121-131.
Conjecuuc in Politicul Sciencc,' Poltlca! is "The Suue of the Nation: Social Sys- 17. For an effort in this direction sce my
Studies (Februnry 1966), pp. 1-14. terns Accounting," in Social lndicutors, ed, book, Publlc Po/icy-Makillg Reexamined
9. These melhods are sornetimesmentinned in Raymond A. Bnuer (Carnbridge: MIT Press, (San Francisco: Chandler, 1967).
passing, but are not at present actually in le- 1966), pp. 154-271. See also Bertram M.
grated into systems analysis and PPBS, e.g.,
see Symposium, p. 262.
10. Symposium, p.258.
11. Fur thc conccpt, sce Don K. Priee, TI1e
Scieutijic ES/lI/e (Carubridge: Harvurd Uni-
versiry Prcss, Belknap Press, 1965), esp.
pp. 123-126.
12. The tendency in systerns analysis and PPBS
to ignore orgnuizutional behavior is illus-
trated by the intention to rely on planned
outputs as U standard or nppralsing actual
outputs (S)'I/Iposiu/l~ p. 275). As is well
known, bo!h fram orgunlzation !heory and
fram bitter experience, the defensive tenden-
cies of organlzntions will opera te lo put plan-
ning output in line WiIexpected output, well
below optimal or even preferred outputs. The
DOD may have been in some respects an ex-
ception as
a result of its special structure, the
personnliry ofthe Secretnry ofDefense. Presi-
dential backing, and-perhaps most impor-
tant of all-the external pressure of acule
competition Wilh active adversanes. But in
ordinnry organizations, cooperalion by lhe
senior executives is essential for significant
changes in lhe quallty of outputs. Inlerest-
ingly enough, none of the papers in the S)'III
pOSI/l1I mentions this requisite.