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P(A1)= 0,25
P(A2)= 0,30
P(A3)= 0,45
P(B1/A1)= 0,02 P(B2/A1)= 0,98
P(B1/A2)= 0,04 P(B2/A2)= 0,96
P(B1/A3)= 0,06 P(B2/A3)= 0,94
P ( B 1 )=0,250,02+0,30,04+ 0,450,06
B 1=4,40
P
P ( B 2 )=95,60
Teorema de Bayes
P( A 1)P(B1 / A 2)
P( A 1/B 1)=
P (A 1)P (B 1/ A 1)+ P (A 2)P (B 1/ A 2)+ P ( A 3)P( B1 / A 3)
P( A 1/B 1)=11,36
Teorema de Bayes
P( A 2)P( B 1/ A 2)
P( A 2/B 1)=
P(A 1)P(B 1 / A 1)+ P (A 2)P (B 1/ A 2)+ P (A 3)P(B1 / A 3)
P( A 2/B 1)=27,27
Teorema de Bayes
P( A 3)P(B 1/ A 3)
P( A 3/ B1)=
P( A 1)P(B 1/ A 1)+ P( A 2)P(B1 / A 2)+ P( A 3)P( B 1/ A 3)
P( A 3/ B1)=61,36
Teorema de Bayes
P( A 1)P( B 2/ A 1)
P( A 1/B 2)=
P( A 1)P(B 2 / A 1)+ P ( A 2)P(B 2 / A 2)+ P( A 3)P( B 2/ A 3)
P( A 1/B 2)=25,63
Teorema de Bayes
P( A 2)P(B 2/ A 2)
P( A 2/B 2)=
P( A 1)P(B2 / A 1)+ P(A 2)P(B2 / A 2)+ P( A 3)P( B 2/ A 3)
P( A 2/B 2)=30,13
Teorema de Bayes
P( A 3)P( B 2/ A 3)
P( A 3/ B2)=
P( A 1)P( B 2/ A 1)+ P( A 2)P( B 2/ A 2)+ P( A 3)P(B 2/ A 3)
P( A 3/ B2)=44,25
Crowford Components=
DIAGRAMA DE ARBOL
defectuoso=0,
defectuoso=0,
Schuller= 0,30
defectuoso=0