Protecting the People: The

Importance of Funding
Weather Research
WHY WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUND PROGRAMS THAT
INCREASE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE WEATHER

Karl Schneider Penn State University

Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction
The United States as a whole
experiences some of the most
varied and unpredictable weather
on the planet. From destructive
tornadoes, to crippling blizzards,
to devastating hurricanes,
meteorologists strive to forecast
these events accurately, in order
to keep the public informed, and
thereby safe.

The basis of forecasting hazardous

weather days in advance is
numerical weather prediction
(NWP). NWP refers to the forecast models that meteorologists use daily. They take in
initial conditions, perform many calculations, and output forecast weather conditions for
timeframes from a few hours, to days in advance. These models are far from perfect, and
are the main reason that forecasts, especially greater than three days out, are incorrect.

PUBLIC BACKLASH
In recent years, meteorologists have seen an increase in backlash from the public over
missed forecasts. Its clear that Americans are becoming much more dissatisfied with the
accuracy of forecasts. To meet these demands, we must increase funding to improve our
numerical weather models, because better forecasts most often start with better modeling.

PAGE 1
New Federal Budget Features Steep Cuts to NOAA
Recently, President Trump outlined his new
budget for the 2018 fiscal year. The budget
features steep cuts to organizations, such as the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), that support climate
science. According to the Washington Post,
NOAAs budget would be cut by 17 percent. Most
of the cuts would affect spending on education,
grants and research; NOAAs Office of Oceanic
and Atmospheric Research would lose 26 percent
of its current funds, and the satellite data
division would lose 22 percent. [1]

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
These proposed cuts have outraged most professionals in the field of meteorology. While
these cuts are targeted at eliminating funding for climate change research, meteorologists
believe there might be unintended consequences. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator
under President Barack Obama, said that most of the information for weather forecasts
comes from satellites. Cutting NOAAs satellite budget will compromise NOAAs
mission of keeping Americans safe from extreme weather and providing forecasts that
allow businesses and citizens to make smart plans, she said.

Weather satellites do a lot more than just take cool-looking pictures of the earth; they
serve a critical role in keeping us safe. Marshall Shepherd, former president of the
American Meteorological Society, said Weather satellites provide a critical service for the
public, the military, industry, and other stakeholders. They are like smoke detectors in our
homes. You know they are there but really do not pay them any attention until your house
is on fire. [2]

FORECAST QUALITY SUFFERS

In addition to keeping track of large-scale storm systems across the globe, the data
satellites collect is fed directly into the numerical models. In fact, todays weather
forecast models rely on satellite data more than any other weather observation.
The data includes the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity, cloud
distributions, and land and sea surface temperatures. [3] Since satellite data is the primary
means by which the forecast models are initialized, poor initial conditions will result in
bad output. Thus, any cuts to the currently aging satellite network could jeopardize
forecast model accuracy.

Experts warn that cuts to the satellite network could significantly affect forecast accuracy,
especially in areas without adequately spaced weather radars. Zack Labe, a doctoral

PAGE 2
student with the University of California-Irvines Department of Earth System Science,
said Budget cuts to the satellite network would not only affect climate monitoring,
but would also affect weather monitoring. He added, In Alaska, there are a lot of
locations that dont have radar observations and Doppler radar for weather.
Meteorologists in Alaska rely on the satellite network to provide weather forecasts. [4]

MISGUIDED CUTS
Many professionals believe that the weather forecasting industry will suffer, primarily
because the budget cuts are a misunderstanding of what NOAA actually does. Rick
Spinrad, a former chief scientist for NOAA, said the proposed cuts are "short-sighted and
ill-informed. They reflect a misunderstanding of the value of NOAA's research and
operations (especially satellite operations) on the safety and well-being of every
American," Sprinrad said. "Unless the administration is not interested in continuing
to enhance the protection of the lives and property of our citizens through, for
example, improved weather forecasts, watches and warnings, these cuts should not
be implemented". [5]

Dr. David Titley, a professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University who served
as NOAAs chief operating officer in the Obama administration, agrees with Spinrads
assertions. In a more politically-charged statement, Titley said that oddly the White
House budget office, despite the presidents commitment to building infrastructure,
would cut NOAAs budget for ships and satellites. These cuts will impact good private-
sector jobs in the U.S., Titley said. The loss of capability will make America weaker both
in space and on the sea a strange place to be for an administration that campaigned to
make America great again.

PAGE 3
The Importance of Research
To be fair, Trumps budget does
reallocate these funds to improving
the US military, and to strengthening
our borders. Having a strong defense
system in place against foreign threats
certainly is a priority, and arguably
more of a priority at first glance than
funding weather and climate
research. Still, meteorologists and
hobbyists alike fear that with the
budget cuts to satellites and research,
we could be put in danger of a much
more unpredictable force: Mother
Nature. Comparatively, the commerce
departments funding, which contains
NOAA, is a drop in the bucket
compared to the defense departments budget. It seems like a small price to pay for life
saving research and technology.

In order to constantly improve our technology, we need funding for atmospheric

researchfunding that could be cut under the new budget. This smartphone and other
advances that we enjoy today like GPS, life-saving medical procedures, and precision
agricultural methods did not just appear, "poof," out of thin air, said Marshall Shepherd.
Such advances come from years of sustained research and development. Advances in
weather forecasting are the same way. [6]

Private sector meteorologists also feel the same way about continuing funding for
research. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist for private consulting company WeatherBell
Analytics, said that "we must be careful to ensure that research programs that
provide enormous value to the public for a relatively low cost are maintained and, if
possible expanded. [7] Compared to the massive amounts of money being spent on
defense currently, it seems like a small price to pay for life-saving information.

Weather Legislation
While climate change has become a highly-politicized issue, weather forecasting has not.
A vast majority of politicians from both sides believe that improving our weather
technology is necessary. Funding for weather research and forecasting has received
bipartisan support from members of congress over the past several years.

PAGE 4
RECENT EFFORTS
Republican Senator John Thune (South Dakota) has sponsored a number of bills in
congress over the past few years to improve weather forecasting. In 2015, he introduced
the Seasonal Forecasting Improvement Act, [8] which would allow the US Weather
Research Program to continue through 2020. Through the U.S. Weather Research
Program, NOAA seeks to improve weather and air chemistry forecast and warning
information and products by funding, facilitating, and coordinating cutting-edge research
to improve high-impact weather and air chemistry predictions and warnings to protect
lives and property of the American public and inform weather-sensitive U.S. industries. [9]

Despite Thunes efforts, this bill has not even made it to a vote, almost two years after
being introduced. Likewise, another bill, the Metropolitan Weather Hazards
Protection Act of 2015, was introduced in the House of Representatives last year, which
has also failed to vote on it. [10] This bill, if signed into law, would mandate weather radar
sites be installed in large cities. Charlotte, NC, a metropolitan area with almost three
million people, does not have a weather radar in close proximity, which puts residents in
danger of severe weather. The bill would grant Charlotte and cities of similar size funding
to install weather radar, which will save lives.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Its clear that many government officials, the public, and meteorologists alike support
increased funding for weather research and operations. Many meteorologists were
frustrated by the lack of action taken in the past couple of years on the previously
described pieces of legislation. Fortunately for them, one piece of weather legislation,
recently been passed by the senate, has been gaining traction. The Weather Research
and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, sponsored by Frank Lucas (R-OK), will improve
countless areas of weather forecasting and research. [11]

PAGE 5
According to a Washington Post article, the bill authorizes funding for these initiatives,
totaling more than $170 million, but does not necessarily signal new or increased
funding for NOAA. Instead, it offers guidance on what programs should receive specific
funding amounts given the existing budget negotiated by the president and Congress. [12]
Clearly, the bill is a great first step towards improving our weather technology, but more
can still be done. If NOAA receives budget cuts in 2018, this legislation could be much
less effective.

BROAD SUPPORT
The bills passage by both the House and Senate was greatly appreciated by members of
congress from both sides, as well as meteorologists in both the private and public sectors.
The bill gained broad support from the weather enterprises private and academic sectors,
including AccuWeather, Panasonic, Schneider Electric, the University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research (UCAR), and the University of Oklahoma. [13] The bill is the first
major legislation in many years to improve weather research and forecasting, and experts
believe that its passage is critical to improving public safety. Our bill strengthens the
science to forecast severe heat and cold, storms, tornadoes, tsunamis and
hurricanes, helping us make our warnings more timely and accurate, Sen. Brian
Schatz (D-Hawaii) said. It also improves how the government communicates these
threats to the public, so that families and businesses can be prepared and stay safe.

Solutions
Meteorologists hope this bill is the start of
improvements to the United States
forecast models. Currently, the US models
fall short compared to those run by our
European counterparts. The European
center is the best, and the UK Met is
second best, says Cliff Mass, a
meteorologist at the University of
Washington. GFS [US model] is third
right now in terms of model accuracy.
In the technology, the UK Met and the
European center are better models; they
have better physics and better data
assimilation, he says.

IMPROVING THE GFS

The Global Forecast System (GFS) is run by the National Center for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) here in the United States. The GFS runs four times a day, and forecasts

PAGE 6
weather sixteen days in the future. Most of NCEPs other short-range models, such as the
NAM, are based off of the GFS, so the fact that the GFS is third in comparison with the
Europeans models means all of the models run here in the US are suffering. [11]

The primary difference between the GFS

and European models is their difference in
data assimilation, or the way current
conditions are fed into a model. The
European model uses 4D-Var, which
incorporates current conditions within a
window of several hours, not just at one
time instance, like the GFS. Implicitly, a
4D-Var is much more accurate than the
3D-Var method, but the problem is that it
is 10 times more expensive to run, says
Hendrik Tolman, director of the NCEPs Environmental Modeling Center. You have to be
able to run your model forward and backwards, and you need a separate version of the
model to do that.

INCREASE FUNDING
It would cost NCEP a lot of money to compete with the Europeans to be the best at
forecasting; thats the main reason the GFS has, and continues to lag behind the European
modela lack of funding. In 2016,
NCEP announced that a significant
upgrade to the GFS model would be
coming in subsequent years. The
upgrade would include a new dynamic
core, called FV3. The FV3 core brings a
new level of accuracy and numerical
efficiency to the models representation
of atmospheric processes such as air
motions. This makes possible
simulations of clouds and storms, at
resolutions not yet used in an
operational global model. [12]

Improving the GFSs data assimilation will require immense funding, and that is why
meteorologists believe NOAA needs to receive more funds, not less. In order to evolve
our technology to create better forecasts, lawmakers must vote for weather
legislation that increases funding for numerical weather prediction, satellites, and
weather radar. Even if the GFS upgrade does not happen for a variety of reasons, an
increase in funding for research programs will help meteorologists better understand how
to model complex weather systems with the resources we have available.

PAGE 7
Conclusion
Improving our weather forecasting
technology starts with the signing of the
Weather Research and Forecasting
Innovation Act, but does not end there. In
order to develop better weather forecasting
methods in the future, funding for
universities and government research
programs must continue, and be increased.
Lawmakers, members of the public, and
industry professionals agree that funding
weather research and modeling is not a
political issue. We must push past the
political divide in order to improve forecasts,
which will in turn save lives.

PAGE 8
 Notes

1. Mufson, Steven, Jason Samenow, and Brady Dennis. "White House Proposes Steep
Budget Cut to Leading Climate Science Agency." The Washington Post. WP
Company, 03 Mar. 2017. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
2. Shepherd, Marshall. "Four Ways NOAA Benefits Your Life Today." Forbes. Forbes
Magazine, 08 Mar. 2017. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
3. Ackerman, Steve. "Opinion | Satellites Are the Backbone of Weather Forecasts.
Congress Must Vote to Support Them." The Washington Post. WP Company, 20
Sept. 2016. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
4. Ellis, Tim. "Climate Scientists Worry NOAA Cuts Will Hinder Alaska Weather
Forecasting." Alaska Public Media. N.p., 13 Mar. 2017. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
5. Rice, Doyle. "Trump's Proposed NOAA Budget Cuts Rattle Scientists." USA Today.
Gannett Satellite Information Network, 06 Mar. 2017. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
6. Shepherd, Marshall. "Four Ways NOAA Benefits Your Life Today." Forbes. Forbes
Magazine, 08 Mar. 2017. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
7. Rice, Doyle. "Trump's Proposed NOAA Budget Cuts Rattle Scientists." USA Today.
Gannett Satellite Information Network, 06 Mar. 2017. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
8. Thune, John. "Text - S.1331 - 114th Congress (2015-2016): Seasonal Forecasting
Improvement Act." Congress.gov. N.p., 09 May 2016. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
9. Pietrafesa, Leonard. "Opinion | If Congress Invests in Seasonal Weather Forecast
Research, Everyone Wins." The Washington Post. WP Company, 14 Oct. 2016. Web.
04 Apr. 2017.
10. Pittenger, Robert. "H.R.3538 - 114th Congress (2015-2016): Metropolitan Weather
Hazards Protection Act of 2015." Congress.gov. N.p., 30 Sept. 2016. Web. 04 Apr.
2017.
11. Lucas, Frank. "Actions - H.R.353 - 115th Congress (2017-2018): Weather Research
and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017." Congress.gov. N.p., 30 Mar. 2017. Web. 04
Apr. 2017.
12. Samenow, Jason. "Senate Passes Comprehensive Bipartisan Bill to Improve
Weather Forecasting." The Washington Post. WP Company, 30 Mar. 2017. Web. 04
Apr. 2017.
13. Samenow, Jason. "Senate Passes Comprehensive Bipartisan Bill to Improve
Weather Forecasting." The Washington Post. WP Company, 30 Mar. 2017. Web. 04
Apr. 2017.
14. Kramer, David. "Europeans Shine in Weather Forecasting: Physics Today: Vol 69,
No 1." Physics Today, Jan. 2016. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
15. "NOAA to Develop New Global Weather Model." National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, 27 July 2016. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.

PAGE 9