CANADA

New Zealand Energy

NZ CN Neutral
Price (at 20:59, 03 Jan 2014 GMT) C$0.31 Tikorangi workover program ongoing,
Valuation
- 0.75x RENAV & 7.0x 2014 EV/DACF (50/50 weight)
C$ 0.50 first six wells reactivated
12-month target C$ 0.50 Event
12-month TSR % +61.3
Volatility Index Very High NZEC saw December corporate production of 236 bbl/d (net to NZEC) from eight
GICS sector Energy wells in the Taranaki Basin. Production from the six reactivated wells on the TWN
Market cap C$m 41 licenses (NZEC 50% WI) averaged 151 bbl/d (net) in December. NZEC has
Market cap US$m 38 recompleted the Tikorangi Waihapa-2 well on the TWN licenses and expects
30-day avg turnover C$m 0.0 commercial production to begin in February.
Number shares on issue m 130.9
On the Eltham Permit (NZEC 100% WI) production averaged 85 bbl/d in
Investment fundamentals December from the Copper Moki-1 and -2 wells. NZEC will workover the Copper
Year end 31 Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue m 17.3 9.4 34.8 43.8
Moki-3 well, and expects to recommence production in January.
EBITDA m 0.8 -4.9 14.4 18.9
Recurring profit m -3.1 -8.0 6.6 8.5 Impact
Reported profit m -3.1 -8.0 6.6 8.5
Gross cashflow m 4.1 -2.8 15.3 19.6 TWN license reactivations fail to impress. NZEC previously provided short-
CFPS C$ 0.03 -0.02 0.09 0.11
CFPS growth % nmf nmf nmf 28.0 term test rates for the first two Tikorangi reactivations of 126 bbl/d (net, 19-days)
EPS rec C$ -0.03 -0.06 0.04 0.05 and 91 bbl/d (net, 4-days). Considering December production from all six
EPS rec growth % 66.3 -141.5 nmf 28.7
ROA % -4.5 -6.7 5.2 6.3 reactivated wells was just 151 bbl/d (net), this mornings update would seem to
ROE % -5.0 -8.0 5.9 7.1 imply that the latest Tikorangi wells either did not perform as well as the first ones,
EV/EBITDA x 44.1 -8.9 3.5 2.7
Net debt/equity % -6.5 -5.9 -4.9 5.4 or that production declines are significant after the first month onstream. NZEC
P/BV x 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 has plenty of work left to reach projected 2014 exit production of 780 bbl/d (net)
NZ CN vs TSX, & rec history from the six reactivated wells. While it remains early days in the development of
the TWN licenses, first indications appear underwhelming.
Production at Copper Moki remains at a base level, with just two of four wells
currently producing. We could see a production bump as the Copper Moki-3 and
Waitapu-2 well back on-line in January, although considerable progress needs to
be made in order for us to become more constructive on NZECs assets.

Earnings and target price revision

No changes to estimates.
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no
Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, January 2014 Price catalyst
(all figures in CAD unless noted)
12-month price target: C$0.50 based on a 0.75x RENAV & 7.0x 2014 EV/DACF
(50/50 weight) methodology.
Catalyst: TWN recompletions, resumption of shut-in wells on Eltham Permit

Analyst(s) Action and recommendation

David Popowich
+1 403 539 8529 david.popowich@macquarie.com We continue to view NZEC as a show me story, following a major guidance
Bryan Fast
+1 403 218 6656 bryan.fast@macquarie.com downgrade early last year. We would like to see further progress on the workover
program in order to become more constructive on the story, noting that first
6 January 2014 indications have underwhelmed. We re-iterate our Neutral rating.
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Macquarie Research New Zealand Energy

Fig 1 New Zealand Energy (NZ CN) Upside/Downside scenario

NZ CN vs TSX, & rec history Price target / scenario Implied TSR

Upside potential = $1.00 222.6%

Price target = $0.50 61.3%

Current price = $0.31 0.0%

Downside risk = $0.25 (19.4%)
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no
Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

12-month price target: 0.75x RENAV & 7.0x We assume New Zealand Energy achieves 2014 production of 866boe/d
$0.50 2014E EV/DACF (50/50 on spending of C$16.0m.
weight)

Upside potential: 0.5x RENAV Our upside scenario assumes New Zealand Energy trades at 0.5x
$1.00 RENAV.

Downside risk: 1.0x core NAV Our downside scenario assumes New Zealand Energy trades at 1.0x
$0.25 core NAV.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, January 2014

6 January 2014 2
Macquarie Research New Zealand Energy

New Zealand Energy (NZ CN, Neutral, Target price: C$0.50)

Price Assumption 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Quarterly Forecast 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13E
Oil-Brent $/b 111.64 108.39 112.00 115.75 Oil-WTI US$/b 94.35 94.13 105.78 96.00
Gas - NBP p/therm 59.2 64.6 56.0 57.9 Gas-Henry Hub US$/mmbtu 3.49 4.02 3.56 3.70
Gas-Henry Hub US$/mmbtu 2.80 3.70 3.65 4.20 US$/C$ $ 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.95
US$/C$ (per end) $ 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.94 Liquids Realization $/b 112.35 100.96 108.84 111.41
US$/ (per end) $ 1.63 1.55 1.60 1.60 Gas Realization $/mcf na na na na

Oil & Liquids kb/d 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2

Income Statement 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Natural Gas mmcf/d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil & Liquids kb/d 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.9 Total Production kboe/d (@ 6:1) 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2
Natural Gas mmcf/d 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 Gas Production Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Production kboe/d (@ 6:1) 0.4 0.3 0.9 1.1
Gas Production Ratio % 0.0 0.0 11.6 16.2 Revenue (net of hedging & transp.) m 3.1 2.2 1.6 2.5
EBITDA m -1.5 -1.1 -2.1 -0.1
Production per Share Growth YoY % 1134.4 -45.9 118.4 23.5
Net Income m (2.4) (2.2) (2.7) (0.7)
Revenue (net of hedging & transp.) m 17.3 9.4 34.8 43.8 EPS (basic) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
Royalties m (0.8) (0.6) (4.2) (5.3) EPS (diluted) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
Operating Costs m (5.1) (5.0) (9.5) (12.4) Adjusted EPS (diluted) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
G&A Costs m (5.9) (5.4) (5.9) (6.5)
Cash Flow from Operations m -0.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.1
EBITDA m 0.8 -4.9 14.4 18.9 CFPS (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00

Interest Costs m 0.2 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Production per Share Growth YoY % -8.2 -66.4 -68.5 -37.3
DD&A & Other Non-Cash Costs m (7.59) (4.44) (8.72) (11.12) Production per Share Growth QoQ % 46.7 -57.2 -35.6 55.0

Net Income m (3.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.5 CFPS Growth YoY % -117.2 -151.1 -166.0 -104.2
EPS (basic) (0.03) (0.06) 0.04 0.05 CFPS Growth QoQ % -83.8 365.6 -61.0 -114.1
EPS (diluted) (0.03) (0.06) 0.04 0.05
Adjusted EPS (diluted) (0.03) (0.06) 0.04 0.05 Revenue/boe $/boe 112.35 100.96 108.84 111.41
Dividend Per Share NA NA NA NA Royalties/boe $/boe (4.98) (4.88) (5.14) (11.14)
Operating costs/boe $/boe (62.08) (73.62) (44.80) (45.00)
Revenue per Share Growth YoY % 1094 -49 179 26 Operating Netback/boe $/boe 45.29 22.46 58.90 55.27
EBITDA per Share Growth YoY % -109 -663 -323 31 G&A/boe $/boe (38.80) (77.85) (94.69) (50.89)
Interest/boe $/boe (0.41) (5.48) (2.28) 0.94
Basic WA Shares OS m 117.1 128.1 170.9 170.9 Cash Netback/boe $/boe 6.07 (60.87) (38.06) 5.32
Diluted WA Shares OS m 118.4 128.1 170.9 170.9

Balance Sheet 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Cashflow Analysis 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
Cash (including Restricted) m 6.0 6.4 5.7 0.0 Cash Flow from Operations m 4.1 (2.8) 15.3 19.6
Debt m 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 Chgs in Working Cap m (2.6) 1.8 0.0 0.0
Net Debt m -28.3 -9.1 -8.4 4.0 Net Cash Flow from Operations m 1.5 (1.0) 15.3 19.6
Bank Lines m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Flow from Investing m (80.9) (11.1) (16.0) (32.0)
Net Debt as % of Bank Lines % #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Cash Flow from Financing m 69.8 12.6 0.0 6.7
Increase in Cash m (9.7) 0.4 (0.7) (5.7)
Total Assets m 116 121 128 144
Total Liabilities m 23 13 13 19 Free Cash Flow1 m (39.8) (46.7) (0.7) (12.4)
Total S/H Equity m 93 108 116 125
Debt Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF) m 3.9 (2.6) 15.2 19.7
Ratios Analysis 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
ROA % -4 -7 5 6 CFPS 0.03 -0.02 0.09 0.11
ROCE % -5 -8 6 7
ROE % -5 -8 6 7 Capital Expenditures m 41.3 45.7 16.0 32.0
Net Debt/Equity % -31 -8 -7 3
Net Debt/CF x -6.9 3.3 -0.5 0.2 Capex/Cash Flow x 10.0 -16.5 1.0 1.6
Price/Book x 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Book Value 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7

Valuation 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Per Boe Statistics 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
P/E x nmf nmf 7.0 5.4 Revenue/boe $/boe 106.47 97.26 109.95 106.19
P/CF x 7.9 nmf 3.0 2.4 Royalties/boe $/boe (5.05) (5.89) (13.19) (12.74)
Dividend Yield 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating costs/boe $/boe (31.49) (51.65) (30.00) (30.00)
Enterprise Value m 3 36 38 50 Operating Netback/boe $/boe 69.93 39.73 66.76 63.45
EV/DACF x 0.7 nmf 2.5 2.5 G&A/boe $/boe (36.30) (56.09) (18.72) (15.81)
EV/Reserves4 $/boe 4.40 Interest/boe $/boe 1.30 (1.31) 0.31 (0.15)
EV/Production4 $k/boe/d 6.4 135.9 44.2 44.4 Capital Tax/boe $/boe 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Reserve/Production (2P) years 4.0 Cash Netback/boe $/boe 34.93 (17.68) 48.34 47.49
Dividend Yield % na Depletion and Depreciation/boe $/boe (25.26) (31.94) (25.00) (25.00)
Stock based compensation/boe $/boe (9.82) (15.73) (2.52) (1.94)
Core Net Asset Value (PV10AT) 5
C$ 0.26 Other Non-cash/boe $/boe (11.67) 1.53 0.00 0.00
P/Core NAV C$ 1.1 Cash Taxes/boe $/boe 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Core NAV + Risked Upside 5
C$ 2.08 Deferred Taxes/boe $/boe 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
P/RENAV C$ 0.1 Earnings Netback/boe $/boe (11.82) (63.82) 20.82 20.56

Sensitivities (Adjusted Cash Flow) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Capital Efficiencies 2012 3-Year
Oil WTI +/- US$1.00/b % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F&D (Proven)2 $/boe nmf nmf
Gas +/- $0.25/mcf % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FD&A (2P)3 $/boe nmf nmf
Oil +/- 100 b/d % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Recycle Ratio - (2P)3 x nmf nmf
Gas +/- 1.0 mmcf/d % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

All figures USD unless noted and production and reserve figures are gross of royalties
1) Cash flow from Operations (before chg in WC) Less Capex and Dividends; 2) Excludes Revisions; 3) Includes changes in Future Development Capital;
4) Excludes non-producing assets; 5) Risked resource upside based on LT price of US$6.00/mmbtu HH, US$85/b WTI, and US/C$0.95
Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, January 2014

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2014

6 January 2014 3
Macquarie Research
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand
Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return
Underperform return >3% below benchmark return
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal
GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie Asia/Europe
Outperform expected return >+10%
Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform expected return <-10%
Macquarie First South - South Africa
Outperform expected return >+10%
Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform expected return <-10%
Macquarie - Canada
Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return
Underperform return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USA
Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000
index return
Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index
return
Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000
index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price
movements.
Very highhighest risk Stock should be expected
to move up or down 60100% in a year investors
should be aware this stock is highly speculative.
High stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 4060% in a year investors should
be aware this stock could be speculative.
Medium stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 3040% in a year.
Lowmedium stock should be expected to move
up or down at least 2530% in a year.
Low stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 1525% in a year.
* Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks
only
Recommendations 12 months
Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Fundamental Analyst recommendations
New Zealand Energy
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
adjustments made:
Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS
impairments & IFRS interest expense
Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
minority interests
EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
total assets
ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number
of shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are
modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting
Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2013

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 47.89% 60.13% 37.97% 39.49% 59.64% 48.65% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.52% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 35.56% 22.65% 46.84% 54.50% 35.54% 32.43% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 4.35% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 16.55% 17.22% 15.19% 6.01% 4.82% 18.92% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company Specific Disclosures:

Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates has received compensation for investment advisory services from New Zealand Energy Corp.
in the past 12 months. Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for New Zealand
Energy Corp. in the past 24 months, for which it received compensation. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is a registered broker-dealer
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Macquarie Research New Zealand Energy
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Tel: (62 21) 515 1818 Tel: (2711) 583 2000 Tel: (60 3) 2059 8833 Tel: (44 20) 3037 2000 Tel: (63 2) 857 0888 Tel: (613) 9635 8139 Tel: (1 514) 925 2850
Mumbai Munich New York Paris Perth Seoul Shanghai
Tel: (91 22) 6653 3000 Tel: (089) 2444 31800 Tel: (1 212) 231 2500 Tel: (33 1) 7842 3823 Tel: (618) 9224 0888 Tel: (82 2) 3705 8500 Tel: (86 21) 6841 3355
Singapore Sydney Taipei Tokyo Toronto
Tel: (65) 6601 1111 Tel: (612) 8232 9555 Tel: (886 2) 2734 7500 Tel: (81 3) 3512 7900 Tel: (1 416) 848 3500
Available to clients on the world wide web at www.macquarieresearch.com and through Thomson Financial, FactSet, Reuters, Bloomberg, and CapitalIQ.

6 January 2014 5
Research
Heads of Equity Research Financials contd TMET contd
John OConnell (Global - Head) (612) 8232 7544 Mortgage & Consumer Finance Internet
Greg MacDonald (Canada) (1 416) 628 3934 Sean Dargan (New York) (1 212) 231 0663 Ben Schachter (Head of TMET) (1 212) 231 0644
Andrew Root (US) (1 212) 231 2336 Asim Imran (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3521 Tom White (New York) (1 212) 231 0643

Consumer Discretionary & Healthcare Property & Casualty Insurance Semiconductors

Amit Kumar (New York) (1 212) 231 8013 Deepon Nag (New York) (1 212) 231 8014
Life Sciences & Technology Asim Imran (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3521
Software & IT Hardware
Jon Groberg (Head of US Consumer Discretionary
& Healthcare) (1 212) 231 2612 Industrials Brad Zelnick (New York) (1 212) 231 2618

Healthcare Services Chemicals Media & Entertainment

Dane Leone (New York) (1 212) 231 6369 Cooley May (New York) (1 212) 231 2586 Tim Nollen (New York) (1 212) 231 0635

Gaming & Leisure Construction and Engineering/Machinery Utilities & Alternative Energy
Chad Beynon (New York) (1 212) 231 2634 Sameer Rathod (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5034
Angie Storozynski (Head of US Utilities &
Department Stores & Softlines Electrical Equipment & Building Products Alternative Energy) (1 212) 231 2569
Mike Wood (New York) (1 212) 231 6590 Andrew Weisel (New York) (1 212) 231 1159
Liz Dunn (New York) (1 212) 231 8066 Transports & Logistics Rob Catellier (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3512
Kelly Dougherty (New York) (1 212) 231 2493
Energy Commodities & Precious Metals
US Exploration & Production Materials Colin Hamilton (Global) (44 20) 3037 4061
Joe Magner (Denver) (1 303) 952 2751 Paper & Packaging Jim Lennon (London) (44 20) 3037 4271
Paul Grigel (Denver) (1 303) 952 2754 Al Kabili (New York) (1 212) 231 0683 Kona Haque (London) (44 20) 3037 4334
US Refining Steel & Metals Oil & Gas
Chi Chow (Denver) (1 303) 952 2757 Aldo Mazzaferro (New York) (1 212) 231 0693
Vikas Dwivedi (Houston) (1 713) 275 6352
Europe Integrated Coal
David Farrell (London) (44 20) 3037 4465 Luke McFarlane (New York) (1 212) 231 2637 Economics and Strategy
US Natural Gas Vehicle Industry Global Metals & Mining Dane Leone (New York) (1 212) 231 6369
Matthew Blair (Denver) (1 303) 952 2759 Daniel Greenspan (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3541 David Doyle (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3663
Pierre Vaillancourt (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3647
Canadian Oil Sands/Heavy Oil Producers Michael Siperco (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3520 Quantitative Analysis
Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544 Michael Gray (Vancouver) (1 604) 639 6372 Gavin Smith (New York) (1 212) 231 0588
Canadian Independents Real Estate
Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544 Find our research at
REITs
Canadian Integrateds Michael Smith (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3696 Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research
Chris Feltin (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8544 Shahzeb Zakaria (New York) (1 212) 231 0647 Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial
International/Canadian Oil & Gas Producers Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com
Cristina Lopez (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8542
TMET Bloomberg: MAC GO
David Popowich (Calgary) (1 403) 539 8529 Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx
Telecommunications
Ray Kwan (Calgary) (1 403) 539 4355 Kevin Smithen (New York) (1 212) 231 0695 CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com
Greg MacDonald (Toronto) (1 416) 628 3934 Contact Gareth Warfield for access (612) 8232 3207
Financials
Business & Computer Services Email addresses
Banks/Trust Banks Kevin McVeigh (New York) (1 212) 231 6191 FirstName.Surname@macquarie.com
David Konrad (Head of Banks) (1 212) 231 0525
Thomas Alonso (New York) (1 212) 231 8047
Cable, Satellite & Entertainment eg. john.oconnell@macquarie.com
Amy Yong (New York) (1 212) 231 2624
John Moran (Denver) (1 212) 231 0662
Life Insurance
Sean Dargan (New York) (1 212) 231 0663

Equities Sales Trading

Head of Global Cash Equities US Sales US Sales Trading
Stevan Vrcelj (Sydney) (612) 8232 5999 Austin Graham (New York) (1 212) 231 2494 Austin Graham (New York) (1 212) 231 2494
Peter Doerr (Chicago) (1 312) 660 9052
Head of US Equities Ross Peet (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5069 Canada Trading
Ken Savio (New York) (1 212) 231 1184 Perry Catellier (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3619
Canada Sales
Head of Canadian Equities Roy McDowall (Montreal) (1 514) 925 2864 International Sales Trading
Alex Rothwell (Toronto) (1 416) 848 3677 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555
US Quantitative Specialist Sales
Victor Morange (New York) (1 212) 231 2538