Chapter11

ProjectRiskManagement
(PMBOK Guide)
(PMBOKGuide)
MohammadA.Rajabi
D t fG
Dept.ofGeomatics
ti Eng.,UniversityofTehran
E U i it f T h
Tel:+982188334341,Cell:+989121325823
Email: marajabi@ut ac ir
Email:marajabi@ut.ac.ir
Homepage:http://www.marajabi.com
 Table of Content
TableofContent

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 2
 Introduction
Theprocessofconductingriskmanagement
planning,identification,analysis,response
planning and monitoring and control on a project
planning,andmonitoringandcontrolonaproject
Objective:increasetheprobabilityandimpactof
positiveevents,anddecreasetheprobabilityand
impactofnegativeevents
Planriskmanagement
Identifyrisks
Id tif i k
Performqualitativeriskanalysis
Performquantitativeriskanalysis
Perform quantitative risk analysis
Planriskresponses
Monitorandcontrolrisks
Monitor and control risks
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 3
 Introduction
Introduction
Risk
Occurs
Occursinfuture
in future
Anuncertaineventorcondition
Mayeffect:scope,schedule,cost,performance,and
quality
Mayhaveoneormorecauses,oneormoreimpacts
Arequirement,assumption,constraint,orcondition
A i t ti t i t diti
createsthepossibilityofnegativeorpositive
outcomes
Limitedpersonnel,permitissue,limitedresources
Contingencyplansshouldalwaysbethereasnotalof
risksareknown!
ik k !
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 4
 Introduction
Introduction
Risktolerance
s to e a ce
Riskattitudesadoptedbypeoplearedrivenby
p
perception,tolerances,andotherbiases
p
Consistentapproachtoriskshouldbedeveloped,
andcommunicationaboutriskanditshandling
shouldbeopenandhonest
Riskresponseshouldbeabalancebetweenrisk
t ki
takingandrisktolerance
d i kt l
Riskmanagementshouldbeproactiveand
consistent throughout project
consistentthroughoutproject
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 5
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 6
 11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.1PlanRiskManagement
Theprocessofhowtoconductriskmanagement
p g
activities
Successoftheotherfiveriskmanagement
processes will be enhanced by careful and explicit
processeswillbeenhancedbycarefulandexplicit
planning
Thedegree,typeandvisibilityofrisk
The degree, type and visibility of risk
managementshouldbecommensuratewithboth
therisksandimportanceoftheproject
Importanttoprovidesufficientresourcesand
I id ffi i d
timeforriskmanagementactivities,andrisk
evaluation
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 7
 Inputs,Tools&Techniques,
Outputs

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 8
 Data Flow
DataFlow

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 9
 Inputs
Inputs
Projectscopestatement
Whattherisksareandhowsignificanttheyare
g y
Costmanagementplan
Howriskbudgets,contingencies,andmanagement
reserves will be reported and assessed
reserveswillbereportedandassessed
Schedulemanagementplan
Howschedulecontingencieswillbereportedassessed
Communicationsmanagementplan
Whotoshareinformationonvariousrisksandresponses
atdifferenttimes
Enterpriseenvironmentalfactors
Riskattitudesandtolerances(thedegreeofriskthatan
organization withstand)
organizationwithstand)

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 10
 Input
Input
Organizationalprocessassets
Organizational process assets
Riskcategories
Commondefinitionsofconceptsp
Riskstatementformats
Standardtemplates
p
Rolesandresponsibilities
Authoritylevelsfordecisionmaking
Lessonslearned,and
Stakeholderregisters

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 11
 Tools and Techniques
ToolsandTechniques
Planningmeetingsandanalysis
Attendees
Projectmanager
Selectedteammembersandstakeholders
Anyonewithinorganizationinchargeofmanagingriskplanningan
executingactivities
Highlevelplansaredefinedincludingriskmanagement
costandschedule
Riskcontingencyreserveapplicationapproachesare
k l h
establishedandreviewed
Responsibilitiesareassigned
Templatesforriskcategories,definitionoftermslikelevel
ofrisk,probabilitybytypeofrisk,impactbytypeof
objectives,andprobabilityandimpactmatrixwillbe
t il d t th
tailoredtothespecificproject
ifi j t
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 12
 Outputs
Outputs
Riskmanagementplan
Methodology(approaches,tools,anddatasourcestoperform
riskmanagement)
Rolesandresponsibilities(lead,support,andriskmanagement
t
teammembers,andtheirresponsibilities)
b d th i ibiliti )
Budgeting(assignresources,estimatesfunds,andestablishes
protocolsofcontingencyreserve)
Timing(whenandhowoftenshouldtheriskmanagement
Timing (when and how often should the risk management
processshouldbeperformed,establishesprotocolsfor
applicationofschedulecontingencyreserves,andestablishes
riskmanagementactivitiestobeincludedintheproject
schedule)
Riskcategories(processofsystematicallyidentifyingrisks.
Simplelist/structuresintoRiskBreakdownStructure(RBS))

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 13
 ExampleofRiskBreakdown
Structure(RBS)

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 14
 Outputs
Outputs
Definitionofriskprobabilityandimpact
Definition of risk probability and impact
Negativeperspective
Positiveperspective

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 15
DefinitionofImpactScalesforFour
ProjectObjectives

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 16
 Outputs
Outputs
Probabilityandimpactmatrix(risksareprioritized
basedontheirpotentialimplications
Revisedstakeholderstolerances
Reportingformat(howtodocument,analyze,and
communicatetheoutcomesoftherisk
managementprocesses)
t )
Tracking(documentshowriskactivitiesare
recorded for the benefit of the current project as
recordedforthebenefitofthecurrentproject,as
wellasforfutureneedsandlessonslearned,and
how risk management processes will be audited
howriskmanagementprocesseswillbeaudited
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 17
 11.2 Identify Risks
11.2IdentifyRisks
The
Theprocessofdeterminingwhichrisksmayaffect
process of determining which risks may affect
theprojectanddocumentingtheircharacteristics
Projectmanager,
Project manager teammembers,risk
team members risk
managementteam,customers,subjectmatter
experts, end users, other project managers,
experts,endusers,otherprojectmanagers,
stakeholders,andriskmanagementexperts
shouldparticipate
p p
Iterativeprocess, frequencydependsonsituation

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 18
 Inputs,Tools&Techniques,
Outputs

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 19
 Data
Data
Flow

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 20
 Inputs
Riskmanagementplan(rolesandresponsibilities,riskmanagement
activities in budget and schedule risk categories)
activitiesinbudgetandschedule,riskcategories)
Activitycostestimation(providesquantitativeassessmentofthe
likelycosttocompletescheduledactivities)
Activitydurationestimation(providesquantitativeassessmentof
Activity duration estimation (provides quantitative assessment of
thelikelytimetocompletescheduledactivities)
Scopebaseline(assumptionsmadeandtheiruncertainty,atboth
microandmacrolevels)
Stakeholderregister(forsolicitinginputsforidentifyingrisks)
Costmanagementplan(maygenerateoralleviateriskbyitsnature
orstructure)
Schedulemanagementplan(maygenerateoralleviateriskbyits
h d l l ( ll kb
natureorstructure)
Qualitymanagementplan(maygenerateoralleviateriskbyits
nature or structure)
natureorstructure)

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 21
 Inputs
Inputs
Projectdocuments
Assumptionslog
Work performance reports
Workperformancereports
Earnedvaluereports
Networkdiagrams
Baselines,and
Oh
Otherprojectinformationprovedtobevaluable
j i f i d b l bl
Enterpriseenvironmentalfactors
Publishedinformationincludingcommercialdatabases
Academic checklists
Academicchecklists
Benchmarking
Industrystudies,and
Riskattitudes
O
Organizationalprocessassets
i i l
Projectfilesincludingactualdata
Organizationalandprojectprocesscontrols
Risk statement templates and
Riskstatementtemplatesand
Lessonslearned
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 22
 Tools and Techniques
ToolsandTechniques
Documentationreviews(plans,assumptions,previous
projectfiles,contracts,andotherinformation
Informationgatheringtechniques
Brainstorming(togetcomprehensivelistofprojectrisksusing
g( g p p j g
multidisciplinaryexperts,andthecategorizingtheideas)
Delphitechniques(questionnaire,anonymous,unbiased)
Interviewing(experiencedprojectparticipants,stakeholders,
andsubjectmatterexperts)
Rootcauseanalysis(toidentifyproblem,discoverthe
underlyingcause,developpreventionaction)
Ch
Checklistanalysis(basedonhistoricalinformationand
kli l i (b d hi i li f i d
knowledge.ThelowestlevelofRBSisagoodpointtostart,
shouldalwaysbereviewedtoincorporatenewlessons
learned)
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 23
 Tools and Techniques
ToolsandTechniques
Assumptionsanalysis(tocheckthevalidityofthe
assumptions,theiraccuracy,instability,inconsistencyor
incompletenessofthem)
Diagrammingtechniques
Causeandeffectdiagrams(orIshikawa/fishbonediagrams)
System/processflowcharts(showinghowvariouselementsofa
systeminterrelate,andthemechanismofcausation)
Influencediagrams(graphicalrepresentationsofsituation
showingcasualinfluences,timeorderingofevents,andother
relationshipsamongvariablesandoutcomes
SWOTanalysis(Strength,Weakness,Opportunities,Threats.
SWOT analysis (Strength Weakness Opportunities Threats
Strengthsshouldoffsetthreats,opportunitiesovercome
weakness)
Expertjudgment
Expert judgment

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 24
 Outputs
Outputs
Riskregister
Risk register
Listofidentifiedrisks
Shouldbedescribedinasmuchdetailasisresaonable
Should be described in as much detail as is resaonable
Structure:
EVENTmayoccur,causingIMPACTor
IfCAUSE,EVENTmayoccur,leadingtoEFFECT
Therootcausesofrisksmaybecomeeveident
Listofpotentialresponses
Li f i l

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 25
 11.3PerformQualitativeRisk
Analysis
The
Theprocessofprioritizingrisksforfurther
process of prioritizing risks for further
analysisoractionbyassessingandcombining
their probability of occurrence and impact
theirprobabilityofoccurrenceandimpact
Alsoassessingthetimeframeforresponse
and the organizationssrisktolerance
andtheorganization risk tolerance
associatedwiththeprojectconstraintsofcost,
schedule scope and quality
schedule,scope,andquality

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 26
 Inputs,Tools&Techniques,
Outputs

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 27
 Data Flow
DataFlow

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 28
 Inputs
Inputs
Riskregister
Riskmanagementplan
Rolesandresponsibilitiesforconductingriskmanagement
R l d ibiliti f d ti ik t
Budgets
Scheduleactivitiesforriskmanagement
Risk categories
Riskcategories
Definitionsofprobabilityandimpact,theprobabilityandimpact
matrix,and
Revisedstakeholders risktolerance
Projectscopestatement
Riskassociatedwithcommontypeprojectsversusprojectsusingfirst
ofitskindtechnology,complex,stateofthearttools
Organizationalprocessassets
O i i l
Informationonprior,similarcompletedprojects
Studiesofsimilarprojectsbyriskspecialities,and
Riskdatabasesthatmaybeavailablefromindustryorpropreitry
Risk databases that may be available from industry or propreitry
sources
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 29
 ToolsandTechniques

Riskprobabilityandimpactassessment
Impactonprojectsschedule,cost,quality,orperformance,
includingbothnegativeeffectsforthreatsandpositiveeffects
foropportunities
Probabilityandimpactmatrix
P b bili di i
Low,moderate, orhighpriority
Canrateariskseparatelyforeachobjective(cost,time,and
scope))
Highriskswithnegativeimpacthaveprioritiesandneed
aggressiveactions
Lowriskswithnegativeimpactshouldbeaddedtowatchlist
Low risks with negative impact should be added to watchlist
Highriskswithpositiveimpactshouldbetargetedfirst
Lowriskswithpositiveimpactshouldbeaddedtowatchlist

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 30
 Probability and Impact Matrix
ProbabilityandImpactMatrix

Dark gray: high risk

Medium gray: low risk
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi
Light gray: moderate risk 31
 Tools and Techniques
ToolsandTechniques
Riskdataqualityassessment
Accurate
Accurateandunbiaseddataisrequired.Accuracy,quality,
and unbiased data is required Accuracy quality
reliability,andintegrityofdataregardingriskshouldbe
checked
Riskcategorization
Ri k t i ti
UsingRBS,theareofprojectisaffected,projectphases
Riskurgencyassessment
Risk urgency assessment
Risksrequiringneartermresponses
Timetoaffectariskassessment
Symptomsandwarningsigns
Riskrating
Expertjudgment
Expert judgment
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 32
 Outputs
Riskregisterupdate
Riskrankingorprioritylistofprojectrisks
High,moderate,andlow
Forschedule,cost,andperformance
Risksgroupedbycategories
s s g ouped by catego es
Mayrevealcommonrootcauses
Causesofriskorprojectarearequiringparticularattention
Mayimprovetheeffectivenessofriskresponses
May improve the effectiveness of risk responses
Listofrisksforadditionalresponseinthenearterm
Listofrisksforadditionalanalysisandresponse
Watchlists oflowpriorityrisks
Trendsinqualitativeriskanalysisresults
Apparent
Apparenttrendcanmakeriskresponsemore/less
trend can make risk response more/less
urgent/important
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 33
 11.4PerformQualitativeRisk
Analysis
Theprocessofnumericallyanalyzingtheeffectof
e p ocess o u e ca y a a y g t e e ect o
identifiedrisksonoverallprojectobjectives
p p
Isperformedonrisksthathavebeenprioritized
bythePerformQualitativeRiskAnalysisprocess
Presentsqualitativeapproachtomaking
decisionsinthepresenceofuncertainty
ShouldberepeatedafterPlanRiskResponsesas
wellaspartofMonitorandControltodetermine
ll t f M it dC t lt d t i
iftheoverallprojectriskhasbeensatisfactorily
decreased
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 34
 Inputs,Tools&Techniques,
Outputs

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 35
 Data Flow
DataFlow

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 36
 Inputs
Inputs
Riskregister
Riskmanagementplan
g p
Costmanagementplan
Setstheformatandestablishescriteriaforplanning,structuring,
estimating,budgeting,andcontrollingprojectcosts
Ithelpsdeterminethestructureand/orapplicationapproachfor
/
quantitativeanalysisofthebudgetorcostplan
Schedulemanagementplan
Sets
Setstheformatandestablishescriteriafordeveloping,andcontrolling
the format and establishes criteria for developing and controlling
projectschedule
Ithelpsdeterminethestructureand/orapplicationapproachfor
quantitativeanalysisoftheschedule
Organizationalprocessassets
Informationonprior,similarcompletedprojects
Studiesofsimilarprojectsbyriskspecialists,and
Riskdatabasesthatmaybeavailablefromindustryorproprietary
kd b h b l bl f d
sources
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 37
 Tools and Techniques
ToolsandTechniques
Datagatheringandrepresentationtechniques
Interviewing
Probabilitydistributions
Quantitativeriskanalysisandmodelingtechniques
Sensitivityanalysis
ExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)analysis
Analysis
Analysisunderuncertainty
under uncertainty
Statisticalconceptthatcalculatestheaverageoutcomewhenthefutureincludes
scenariosthatmayormaynothappen
Opportunities> positivevalues,threats>negativevalues
EMV:multiplyingthevalueofeachpossibleoutcomebyitspossibilityofoccurrenceand
addingproductstogether
Commonuse: decisiontreeanalysis
Modelingandsimulation
ExpertJudgment
Toidentifypotentialcostandscheduleimpacts,toevaluateprobability,andto
defineinputsintothetools
Interpretationofthedata
Identifytheweaknessofthetools,theirrelativestrengths
Identify the weakness of the tools, their relative strengths
Whenandwhichtoolismoreappropriategiventheorganizationscapabilities
andculture
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 38
 RangeofProjectCostEstimates
CollectedDuringtheRiskInterview

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 39
 ExamplesofCommonlyUsed
ProbabilityDistributions

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 40
 Decision Tree Diagram
DecisionTreeDiagram

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 41
 Cost Risk Simulation Results
CostRiskSimulationResults

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 42
 Outputs
Outputs
Risk
Riskregisterupdates
register updates
Probabilisticanalysisoftheproject
Probabilityofachievingcostandtime
b bili f hi i d i
objectives
Prioritizedlistofquantifiedrisks
Trendsinquantitativeriskanalysisresults
q y

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 43
 11.5 Plan Risk Responses
11.5PlanRiskResponses
Theprocessesofdevelopingoptionsandactionsto
enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project
enhanceopportunitiesandtoreducethreatstoproject
objectives
FollowsQualitativeRiskAnalysisandPerform
QualitativeRiskAnalysisprocesses,identifiesand
li i ik l i id ifi d
assignspeopletotakeresponsibilityforriskresponses.
Addressesrisksbasedonpriorities,insertingresources
Addresses risks based on priorities inserting resources
andactivitiesintobudget,schedule,andproject
managementplan
Shouldbeappropriatetothesignificanceoftherisk,
costeffective,realistic,agreedbyallparties,timely,
and owned by a responsible person
andownedbyaresponsibleperson
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 44
 Inputs,Tools&Techniques,
Outputs

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 45
 Data Flow
DataFlow

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 46
 Inputs
Inputs
Riskregister
Identifiedrisks,Rootcausesofrisks,Listsof
Id tifi d i k R t f i k Li t f
potentialresponses,Riskowners,Symptoms,
Warning signs Relative rating/priority list List of
Warningsigns,Relativerating/prioritylist,Listof
riskswithneartermresponse,Trendsin
qualitativeanalysisresults,Watchlist
q y oflow
priorityrisks
Riskmanagementplan
g p
Rolesandresponsibilities,riskanalysisdefinitions,
timingforreviews,riskthresholdsforlow,
moderate,andhighrisks
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 47
 ToolsandTechniques
q
Riskanalysistoolssuchastreeanalysiscanbeusedtochoosethemost
appropriateresponses
Mixedresponsesaremostlikelytobeeffective
Strategiesfornegativerisksorthreats
Avoid(extendingschedule,reducingscope,shuttingdowntheproject)
Transfer(financialriskexposure,insurance,warranties,guarantees)
Mitigate(takingearlyactions,adoptinglesscomplexprocesses,conduction
Mitigate (taking early actions adopting less complex processes conduction
moretests,choosingmorestablesuppliers,prototyping,redundancy)
Accept(Passiveacceptance:noactionexcepttodocumentthestrategyand
leaveittotheprojectteamtodealwithit.Activeacceptance:establishing
contingency reserve for money time and resources)
contingencyreserveformoney,time,andresources)
Strategiesforpositiverisksoropportunities
Exploit(seekingtoeliminatetheuncertaintyassociatedwithaparticular
upsideriskbyensuringtheopportunitydefinitelyhappens.Suchasrewardsto
shorter time to complete lower the cost)
shortertimetocomplete,lowerthecost)
Share(allocatingsomeoralloftheownershipoftheopportunitytoathird
partywhoisabletocapturetheopportunityforthebenefitoftheproject.
Suchasjointventures,specialpurposecompanies)
Enhance(suchasaddingmoreresourcestofinishearly)
Enhance (such as adding more resources to finish early)
Accept(notactivelypursuingit)
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 48
 Tools & Techniques
Tools&Techniques
Contingent
ContingentResponseStrategies(tobe
Response Strategies (to be
executedundercertainpredefinedconditions
such as missing intermediate milestones
suchasmissingintermediatemilestones,
gaininghighprioritywithasupplier)
ExpertJudgment(forspecificanddefinedrisk)
Expert Judgment (for specific and defined risk)

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 49
 Outputs
Outputs
Riskregisterupdates
Appropriateresponsesarechosen,agreedupon,andincludedintheriskregister
Levelofdetailcorrespondswiththepriorityrankingandtheplannedresponses(highand
Level of detail corresponds with the priority ranking and the planned responses (high and
moderaterisksusuallyindetail)
Indentifiedrisks,theirdescriptions,areasoftheproject(WBS)affected,theircauses(RBS),
andhowtheymayaffectprojectobjectives
Riskownersandassignedresponsibilities
OutputsfromthePerformqualitativeAnalysisprocess,includingprioritizedlistsofproject
risks
Agreeduponresponsestrategies
Specificactionstoimplementthechosenresponsestrategy
Triggers,symptoms,andwarningsignsofrisks
Triggers symptoms and warning signs of risksoccurrence
occurrence
Budgetandscheduleactivitiesrequiredtoimplementthechosenresponses
Budgetandscheduleactivitiesrequiredtoimplementthechosenresponses
Contingencyplansandtriggersthatcalltheirexecution
Fallbackplansforuseasareactiontoariskthathasoccurredandtheprimaryresponsetobe
inadequate
Residualrisksthatareexpectedtoremainafterplannedresponseshavebeentakenaswellas
thosethathavebeendeliberatelyaccepted
Secondaryrisksariseasadirectoutcomeofimplementingariskresponse,and
Contingencyreservesthatarecalculatedbasedonthequantitativeriskanalysisoftheproject
Contingency reserves that are calculated based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project
andtheorganizationsriskthresholds

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 50
 Outputs
Risk related contract decisions
Riskrelatedcontractdecisions
Insurance,servicesformitigatingortransferringpartorallofthethreator
enhancingorsharingpartoralloftheopportunity
UsuallyareinputstothePlanProcurements
Projectmanagementplanupdates
Schedulemanagementplan
Changestotoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtoresourcesloadingandlevelling,and
schedule
Costmanagementplan
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtocostaccounting,tracking,andreports,as
wellasupdatestothebudgetandtheconsumptionofcontingencyreserves
Qualitymanagementplan
Ch
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtorequirements,qualityassurance,quality
i t l b h i l t dt i t lit lit
control,aswellasupdatestotherequirementsdocumentation
Procurementmanagementplan
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtostrategyofmakebuydecisionsorcontract
types
Humanresourcemanagementplan
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtoorganizationalstructure,resource
applications,toleranceorbehaviourrelatedtostaffallocation,aswellasupdatestothe
resourceloading
Workbreakdownstructure
kb k
Schedulebaseline
Costperformancebaseline
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 51
 Outputs
Outputs
Projectdocumentupdates
Project document updates
Assumptionlogupdates
May
Maybeincorporatedinthescopestatementorina
be incorporated in the scope statement or in a
separateassumptionslog
Technicaldocumentationupdates
p
Technicalapproachesand/orphysicaldeliverablesmay
change

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 52
 11.6MonitorandControlRisks
Theprocessofimplementingriskresponseplans,trackingidentifiedrisks,
monitoringresidualrisks,identifyingnewrisks,andevaluatingriskprocess
effectivenessthroughouttheproject
Project work should be continuously monitored for new changing and
Projectworkshouldbecontinuouslymonitoredfornew,changing,and
outdatedrisks
Techniquessuchasvarianceandtrendanalysis
Purposes:
Projectassumptionsstillvalid
Ifassessedriskhaschangedorcanberetired
Riskmanagementpolicies/proceduresarefollowed
Contingency reserves of cost/schedule should be modified in alignment with
Contingencyreservesofcost/scheduleshouldbemodifiedinalignmentwith
thecurrentriskassessment
Caninvolvechoosingalternativestrategies,executingacontingencyor
fallbackplan,takingcorrectiveaction,andmodifyingtheproject
management plan
managementplan
RiskresponseownerreportsperiodicallytoPMontheeffectivenessofthe
plan,anyunanticipatedeffects,anycorrectionneededtohandletherisk
appropriately
Includeupdatingtheorganizationalprocessassets,lessonslearned
databases,riskmanagementtemplates
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 53
 Inputs,Tools&Techniques,
Outputs

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 54
 Data Flow
DataFlow

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 55
 Inputs
RiskRegister
Indentifiedrisksandriskowners,agreeduponriskresponses,
specific implementation actions symptoms and warning signs of
specificimplementationactions,symptomsandwarningsignsof
risk,residualandsecondaryrisks,watchlist oflowpriorityrisks,
andtimeandcostcontingencyreserves
Projectmanagementplan
j g p
Risktolerances,protocols,riskowners,time,andother
resourcestoprojectriskmanagement
Workperformanceinformation
p
Deliverablestatus
Scheduleprogress,and
Costsincurred
Costs incurred
Performancereport
Varianceanalysis
Earnedvaluedata,and
Earned value data and
Forecastingdata
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 56
 Tools and Techniques
ToolsandTechniques
RiskAssessment
Shouldbedoneregularly
Identificationofnewrisks
Reassessmentofcurrentrisks
Closingoutdatedrisks
Riskaudits
Risk audits
Examininganddocumentingtheeffectivenessofrisk
responsesindealingwithidentifiedrisks.Theirroot
causes,andtheriskmanagementprocess
d th i k t
PMshouldmakesureitisdoneregularly
Shouldhaveclearformatandobjectives
j

GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 57
 Tools&Techniques
q
Varianceandtrendanalysis
Checkingplannedresultstotheactualresults
Earnedvalueanalysisandothermethodsofprojectvarianceandtrend
analysiscanbeused
Outcome:forecastpotentialdeviationoftheprojectatcompletionfrom
cost/scheduletargets
Technicalperformancemeasurement
p
Checkingplannedresultstotheactualresults
Metricsshouldbedefined.Suchasweight,transactiontimes,numbersof
delivereddefects,storagecapacity
Reserve analysis
Reserveanalysis
Comparestheamountofremainedcontingencyreservestotheamountof
remainingrisks
Statusmeetings
Agendainperiodicmeetings
Dependingontheamountofidentifiedrisks,theirpriority,anddifficultyof
responsetherequiredtimeformeetingvaries
Riskmanagementbecomeseasierthemoreoftenitispracticed
g p
Themorewetalkaboutit,themorelikelypeopleidentifyrisksand
opportunities
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 58
 Outputs
Riskregisterupdates
ik i d
Outcomeofriskassessments,riskaudits,andperiodicriskreviews
whichcanbe:
New
Newidentifiedrisks,updatestoprobability,impact,priority,responseplans,
identified risks, updates to probability, impact, priority, response plans,
ownership,andotherelementsoftheriskregister
Closedrisksandreleasedassociatedreserves
Actualoutcomesoftheprojectsrisksandriskresponses
Organizationalprocessassetsupdates
O i ti l t d t
Templatefortheriskmanagementplanincludingtheprobabilityand
impactmatrix,andriskregister
RBS
Lessonslearnedfromtheprojectmanagementactivities
Changerequests
Recommendedcorrectiveactions
Contingencyplansandworkarounds(notplannedresponsestounidentifiedor
acceptedpassiverisks)
Recommendedpreventionactions
Projectmanagementplanupdates
Project management plan updates
Projectdocumentupdates
GuidetoPMBOK MohammadA.Rajabi 59