Climate Change Impacts on Rain Water Harvesting Potential in Bangladesh

Md. Mafizur Rahman1, Sazia Afreen2 and Mohammad Asad Hussain3

1
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-
1000, Bangladesh, Tel: 9665650-80 (7645), Fax: 880-2-9660306, mafizur@gmail.com
2
Graduate Student, Department of Civil Engineering, BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh, sazia0004@gmail.com
3
Assistant Professor, IWFM, BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh, asadh@iwfm.buet.ac.bd

Abstract
Rainwater harvesting (RWH) in response to climate extremes enhances the resilience of human
society. Alteration of environment due to global weather change brings about extreme climate
events such as drought and flood. Due to this climate change effects it is predicted that over the
next few decades billions of people, particularly those in developing countries like Bangladesh
will face shortage of water and food security. In the present study, 56 years’ rainfall data from 34
meteorological stations allover Bangladesh have been analyzed through GIS as well as
Normalization technique to demonstrate the monthly change of rainfall distribution due to
possible climate change effect. Results show that the western and eastern regions experience
increased rainfall during the wet season whereas the western and central regions face decrease in
rainfall during the dry periods. GIS maps of monthly groundwater level for five year data allover
the country have been analyzed taking into consideration of three cropping periods. The results
show worst condition of groundwater during Kharif-I (March-June) period in the central part of
North-West region and the entire North-Central region. A GIS map is developed showing arsenic
prone areas as well as salinity affected areas over Bangladesh to identify population vulnerable to
arsenic and salinity problems. It also shows the surface water bodies that can be utilized as
potential reservoirs for RWH.

Keywords: Arsenic Contamination, Climate Change, GIS maps, Rainfall, Rainwater

Harvesting, Salinity

1. Introduction:
Bangladesh has a humid, warm, tropical climate. Its climate is influenced primarily by
monsoon and partly by pre-monsoon and post-monsoon circulations. The country is considered to
be one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. This is due to its unique geographic
location, dominance of floodplains and low elevation from the sea. At the same time, the country
has low adaptive capacity because it is extremely poor with high population density and
overwhelming dependence on nature. According to the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (IPCC,
2001), developing countries are expected to suffer the most from the negative impacts of climate
change. The vulnerability due to climate change effects has been documented in many studies
(e.g. ADB, 1994; Ali, 1996, 1999; IPCC TAR, 2001; Kausher et al., 1994; Rijsberman and van
Velzen, 1996; Warrick and Ahmad, 1996; World Bank, 2000). The IPCC Special Report on the
Regional Impacts of Climate Change (2007) indicates that there would be drastic changes in
rainfall patterns in the warmer climate and Bangladesh may experience 5-6% increase of rainfall
by 2030, which may create frequent big and prolonged floods. In contrary, the country is facing
drought in the northwestern region, which affects agriculture, food production, water resources
and human health. The moderately drought affected areas will be turned into severely drought
prone areas within next 20-30 years (IPCC 2007a).
 According to IPCC’S Fourth Assessment (2007b), the following changes have been observed
in climate trends, variability and extreme events in Bangladesh: (1) The annual mean rainfall
exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages
since 1960s, (2) Water shortages has been attributed due to rapid urbanization and
industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing
climate and its adverse impacts on demand, supply and water quality and (3) Salt water from the
Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels
during the dry season.
Globalization highlights the need to use natural resources sparingly, and promote more eco-
efficient production and consumption patterns. An integrated perspective of traditional
knowledge on adaptation strategies, such as the rainwater harvesting (RWH) system, is
particularly useful to comprehend vulnerability and adaptation to environmental stresses at the
local scale. Adaptation through rainwater collection may be particularly effective in tropical
monsoon countries like Bangladesh, where the seasonal cycle in rainfall is large, (Pandey et. al.,
2003). So in Bangladesh RWH and sweet water conservation may be adopted for drinking and
domestic use efficiently. Preserved water can also be used effectively for irrigation to agriculture.
About one-quarter of the country’s GDP comes from agriculture and most of the people
living in the villages depend on rain fed agriculture. As the North-West region of Bangladesh is
considered a low potential area for groundwater development, agriculture depends on monsoon
rainwater. Alternative storage options that need to be explored in this context are ground water
storage and RWH. Since rainwater is the main source of groundwater recharge in this area, if
climatic change disfavors abundant precipitation it may adversely affect the groundwater
recharge. The country faces too much water in monsoon causing floods and too little water in dry
season. This situation will be aggravated in the warmer climate resulting in severe droughts and
increasing floods. With rainfall and temperature more variable, agricultural productivity is likely
to fall and it will lead to severe water shortages and flooding.
Significant part of the coastal area is already facing problems related to salinity intrusion
which will be pronounced further under warmer climate. About 830,000 million hectares of
arable land is affected by varying degrees of soil salinity (DoE, 2007). With a 1m rise in sea level,
approximately 1000 square kilometers of cultivated land and sea product culturing area is likely
to become salt marsh. Enhanced salinity in the locality has affected water, soils, agriculture,
vegetation, mangrove, fisheries and livelihoods of the communities and households. Coastal
agriculture and domestic water use, among others, are key vulnerable areas and therefore need
new approaches and technologies to deal with existing and future salinity problems in the coastal
area. So RWH can be adopted as the remedy of the arising problem due to salinity.
During the recent past, detection of arsenic contamination in the shallow aquifer has set back
previous successes in bringing safe water supply to the rural population in particular. Access to
drinking water has become insecure as groundwater is contaminated with arsenic in a large part
of the country. About 25% of the population of Bangladesh is exposed As. contamination to
levels exceeding the country’s standards (0.05 mg/litre) (NWMP, 2001). So, RWH can be a
better option to provide arsenic-free, safe water, particularly for drinking and food preparation.
In Bangladesh, presently RWH is growing in popularity as a cost-effective way for the
unserved poor to obtain improved water supplies at local levels. It has the additional benefit that
it adds to the resilience of community water supplies. This paper attempts to explore the impacts
of climate change on RWH.
2. Methodology
Rainfall data from 34 Meteorological Stations (BMD) allover Bangladesh have been
collected up to 56 years (1950-2005). From the daily rainfall data of 56 years average monthly
total rainfall is calculated for total 56 years and recent 10 years (1996-2005) for all the stations.
Also, average annual rainfall has been calculated for all stations.
Monthly rainfall variation of recent 10 years and past 56 years have been graphically
prepared to observe normalized monthly change of rainfall distribution pattern due to possible
climate change effect. It has been calculated by subtracting the 56 year monthly average rainfall
from the 10 year monthly average rainfall and then normalizing the subtracted value with respect
to the 56 year monthly average rainfall. A point shape file is created from the latitude and
longitude of the corresponding stations using GIS. Then point shape file is converted into
polygon shape file following Thiessen polygon method. From figures showing average annual
rainfall distribution of recent 10 years and past 56 years, rainfall pattern change has been
analyzed due to climate change effects over Bangladesh considering both spatial and time factors.
For every month, maps for eight hydrological regions of Bangladesh have been prepared to
analyze the increase or decrease of rainfall from recent 10 years to that of past 56 years average
monthly rainfall. In this paper, maps of July and December are shown to represent the wet and
dry seasons respectively.
Monthly variation of ground water level has been investigated using GIS from 5 year (1998
to 2002) ground water level data. These maps are prepared for three distinct crop seasons: Kharif
I (March to June), Kharif II (July to October) and Rabi (November to February). As Kharif I
represents the most severe condition, two maps of this period are presented here for year 1998
and 2002. A map showing Arsenic and salinity prone areas according to their concentrations
along with availability of surface water bodies over Bangladesh has been developed. This map
shows whether people of affected areas due to As. and salinity can use rainwater as an alternative
source, considering the surface water bodies that can be utilized to identify the perennial and
intermittent ponds and lakes all over Bangladesh and also can be used as potential reservoirs for
RWH. Finally, the population map (census 2001) is prepared to identify the people vulnerable to
arsenic and salinity problems and areas where RWH should be promoted are recognized.

3. Results and Discussions

Figure 1 shows the percentage of normalized change in rainfall over recent 10 years (1996-
2005) with respect to 56 years (1950-2005) for 34 BMD stations located in eight hydrological
regions of Bangladesh for every month of the year. From Figure 1, it can be clearly observed
that during the Rabi season, which is relatively dry period in Bangladesh, there is 6 to 81%
decrease in rainfall in NW, 12 to 62 % decrease in NC and 2 to 42% decrease in NE region.
During the same period, rainfall decreased by 0 to 53% in SW (exception: Satkhira 42% increase
in January), by 29-64% in SC (exception: Barisal, Patuakhali and Khepupara increase up to
139%), by 2-80% in SE (exception: Chandpur, Comilla and Feni up to 74% increase), by 1-31%
in EH (exception: Sitakunda, Kutubdia, Teknaf, Chittagong up to 255% increase) and by 7-91%
in RE (exception: Sandwip up to 174% increase). During the Kharif I season, there is increase in
rainfall by 5 to 100% in NW, 4-61% in NC, 2-31% in NE, 2-63% in SW, 5-121% in SC, 2-119%
in SE, 1-145% in EH (exception: Teknaf up to 74% decrease) and 18-963% in RE region
(exception: up to 55% decrease in Sandwdip). During the Kharif II season there is increase in
rainfall by 1 to 87% in NW, 1-32% in NC, 2-33% in NE, 1-47% in SW, 1-53% in SC, 1-29% in
SE (exception: Comilla upto 24% decrease), 1-145% in EH and 9-77% in RE regions.
 January February
150.0 150.0

100.0 100.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
0.0
-50.0
-50.0 -100.0
-100.0 -150.0

NW NC NE SW SC SE EH RE

March April
120.0
80.0
100.0
60.0
80.0
40.0 60.0
20.0 40.0
0.0 20.0
-20.0 0.0
-40.0 -20.0
-60.0 -40.0
-60.0
-80.0

NC SWMay EH RE NW NC NE SW SC SE EH RE
June
60.0 40.0
50.0
30.0
40.0
20.0
30.0
20.0 10.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
-10.0 -10.0
-20.0 -20.0

NW NC SW
July SC SE EH RE NC August EH RE
35.0 40.0
30.0 30.0
25.0
20.0
20.0
15.0 10.0
10.0 0.0
5.0 -10.0
0.0
-5.0 -20.0
-10.0 -30.0

NW NC NE SW SC SE EH RE
September October
40.0 100.0
35.0
30.0 80.0
25.0
20.0 60.0
15.0
40.0
10.0
5.0 20.0
0.0
-5.0 0.0
-10.0
-15.0 -20.0
November December
40.0 120.0 NW NC NE SW SC SE EH RE
100.0
20.0
80.0
0.0 60.0
-20.0 40.0
20.0
-40.0 0.0
-60.0 -20.0
-40.0
-80.0
-60.0
-100.0 -80.0

NW NC NE SW SC SE EH RE NW NE
NC NE SW SC
SC SE EH RE
Patuakhali
Mymnensingh

Chuadanga

Sitakunda
Madaripur

Chandpur

Cox's Bazar
Rajshahi

Rangamati
Dhaka

Satkhira
Khulna

Khepupara

Kutubudia

Hatiya
Rangpur

Dinajpur

Majee Court
Tangail

Sreemangal

Mongla

Chittagong

Sandwip
Syedpur

Faridpur
Sylhet

Teknaf
Ishwardi

Barisal
Patuakhali
Mymnensingh

Chuadanga

Bhola

Feni
Sitakunda

Bogra

Comilla
Madaripur

Chandpur

Cox's Bazar
Rajshahi

Rangamati

Jessore
Dhaka

Satkhira
Khulna

Khepupara

Kutubudia

Hatiya
Rangpur

Dinajpur

Majee Court
Tangail

Sreemangal

Mongla

Chittagong

Sandwip
Syedpur

Faridpur
Sylhet

Teknaf
Ishwardi

Barisal
Bhola

Feni
Bogra

Comilla
Jessore

Figure 1: percentage of normalized change in rainfall over recent 10 years (1996-2005) with respect to
56 years (1950-2005) for 34 BMD stations located in 8 hydrological regions of Bangladesh
NB: For stations Chuadanga, Madaripur, Mongla and Syedpur only recent 10 years (1996-2005) data is
available.
 Rainfall (mm)
1500 - 1550 1651 - 1700 1801 - 2000 3001 - 3500
1551 - 1600 1701 - 1750 2001 - 2500 3501 - 4000
1601 - 1650 1751 - 1800 2501 - 3000 4001 - 4500

Figure 2: Left: 10 year average annual rainfall and Right: 56 year average annual rainfall.

Spatial distribution of long term average annual rainfall and recent ten years’ average annual rainfall has
been shown in Figure 2, which indicates increase in rainfall in NW region (up to 19%), in NE region (up to
11%), in SW region (up to 13%), in SC region (up to 11%), in EH region (up to 12%) and in the RE regions (up
to 25%). It was observed that average annual rainfall of recent 10 years (1996-2005) is 2514mm; while that of
the past 56 years (1950-2005) is 2364 mm (6.3% increase).

July December

NW NE NW NE

NC NC

SE SE
SW SW
RE EH RE EH
SC SC

Significant increase in Rainfall Partial increase & decrease in Rainfall

Increase in Rainfall Decrease in Rainfall
Partial increase & decrease in Rainfall
Figure 3: Change in average rainfall (recent 10 year-past 56 years) Left: July and Right: December
 Õ Ô
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Ô BMD Stations
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Õ
Ô Õ
Ô Õ
Ô Õ
Ô
Õ
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Ô
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Ô
Õ
Ô Õ
Ô
Õ
Ô Õ
Ô
Rainfall (mm) Õ
Ô Õ
Ô
2.3 - 2.8 4.2 - 4.6 5.2 - 6.1 7.1 - 8.4 10.6 - 12.1
2.9 - 4.1 4.7 - 5.1 6.2 - 7.0 Õ
Ô 8.5 - 10.5 12.2 - 20.7 Õ
Ô
4.2 - 4.6 5.2 - 6.1 7.1 - 8.4

Figure 4: Average monthly rainfall of December Left: 10 year average and Right: 56 year average
In figure 3 GIS maps of change in average rainfall (10 year- 56 year) for the months of July and December,
in eight hydrological regions of Bangladesh have been shown. Significant increase in July is observed in
Srimangal (33%). Figure 4 shows the average monthly rainfall of December during the recent 10 years and 56
years. This figure shows overall decrease of average rainfall for recent 10 years, during this month. The whole
Western region (NW and SW), Central region (NC and SC) and NE region show severe condition. At BMD
stations Rajshahi (68%), Ishurdi (65%) and Patuakhali (70%) rainfall drop is the most for this month. From this
study it is found that drought-prone areas of Bangladesh are getting less rainfall in recent 10 years than over the
last 56 years.

1998 2002

Depth of
GW Level, m
0-7 15 - 21 29 - 35 43 - 49

22 - 28
No data 36 - 42 50 - 58
8 - 14

Figure 5: Depth of groundwater level during Kharif I, Left: 1998 and Right: 2002
 Surface water body Population
Strongly saline with some very strongly saline

Population (Million)
0.00 - 0.05 0.3 - 0.8
Arsenic Conc. mg/l 0.06 - 0.80 2.1 - 3.25
0.81 - 1.4
3.26 - 8.57
0.81 - 1.66 1.41 - 2.0

Figure 6: Left: Arsenic and Salinity prone areas in Bangladesh including Surface water bodies,
Right: Population of Bangladesh, BBS 2001
Among the three distinct cropping periods, Kharif I shows severe condition of ground water level. Figure 5
shows the depth of groundwater level during Kharif I in 1998 and 2002. From this figure it can be seen that 26%
area of NW and 20% of the area of NC region have ground water level below 7 m in 2002. As shown in Table 1,
a total of 11.3% area of Bangladesh is affected due to ground water level depletion (>=7 m) in 2002. Dhaka city
shows the most severe condition for groundwater (in 1998 up to 34 m and in 2002 up to 53 m) which is due to
extensive extraction to meet the water demand of high population.

Figure 6 shows Arsenic and Salinity prone areas along with surface water bodies of Bangladesh. Significant
As. Contamination, exceeding Bangladesh standards (0.05 mg/liter) is observed in SW (38% area), SC (26%
area), SE (69% area), NE (25% area) and NC (18% area) regions. Some areas of NW (6% area) region also
show existence of Arsenic. Overall 21.2% area of Bangladesh is affected by As. (Table 1). As also shown in
Figure 6, most of the areas of the SW (55% area) and SC (70% area) regions suffer due to salinity problem.
Some of the coastal areas of the EH (6% area) region and RE region also show salinity problem. In the coastal
areas of SW and SC regions where salinity is very high and ground water is polluted by As., the option for
surface water is not available either because of the scarcity of surface water bodies in those areas. As already
mentioned in these areas there is increase in rainfall during the recent past, RWH remains as the only source of
water for drinking and irrigation purposes. NE region also shows As. contamination and this region show high
rainfall in recent years. In NW region ground water remains in a very low level, so RWH can be used as an
adaptive option for source of water.

Table 1: Comparison of areas under As. and salinity problems along with cropping areas
Arsenic Salinity Kharif I (2002) Kharif II (2002) Rabi (2002)
(>=0.05mg/L) (detected) (>=7m) (>=7m) (>=7m)
% Area of
21.2 16.85 11.3 4.26 4.72
Bangladesh

The population map provided in figure 5 clearly shows that Dhaka, Mymensingh, Tangail of NC region,
Comilla in SE region and Chittagong in the EH region are most thickly populated. So, water demand of these
areas is also very high. As the densely populated SW, SC and SE regions are affected by As. and salinity
problems, RWH can be an appropriate option for safe water.
4. Conclusions

For Bangladesh impacts of climate change are most critical as large part of the population is chronically
exposed and vulnerable to a range of natural hazards. In order to cope with the impacts of climate change which
is going to create severe water scarcity, it is high time to plan for adaptation measures and RWH is being
considered as a ‘time-honored’ approach for efficient water use in this regard. From the present study it was
found that North-West (NW) region of Bangladesh which is facing drought during the dry season is getting
more rainfall during the monsoon season in recent years. So, in this region RWH can be an option to preserve
water for the scarce period. Areas facing ground water depletion (NW and NC) must go for RWH to recharge
ground water. Also, in the coastal areas where salinity is very high and ground water is polluted by As., the
option for surface water is not available either because of the lack of surface water bodies. In these areas there is
increase in rainfall during the recent past also. So, RWH remains as the only source of water for drinking and
irrigation purposes for these regions.

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