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BASICPROBABILITY

1.0INTRODUCTION

Probabilityconceptsarefamiliartoeveryone.Theweatherforecasterstatesthattheprobability
ofraintomorrowistwentypercent.Attheracetrack,theoddsarethreetoonethatacertain
horsewillwinthefifthrace.Relatingprobabilityconceptstomanufacturingoperationsmaynot
beasfamiliarastheaboveexamples,buttheyworkthesameway.Probabilityisthekeyto
assessingtherisksinvolvedinthedecisionmakingprocess.Thegamblingcasinosdetermine
theprobabilitiesforeachgameofchancethenmaketherulessothattheoddsarealwaysin
theirfavor.Thesamecanbedoneformanufacturedproducts.Theprobabilityofacertain
numberofdefectivepartsinalargelotcanbedetermined.Also,thepercentageofpartswithin
acertaindimensionrangecanbepredicted.Ifthedesiredresultsarenotobtained,then
adjustmentstotheprocesscanbemade.Adjustmentstoaprocessinamanufacturing
operationareanalogoustochangingtherulesinacasinogame.Theobjectiveistoobtainthe
desiredresults.

Sinceamajorportionofstatisticalqualitycontrolandstatisticalprocesscontroldealswith
probabilityconcepts,itisimportanttohaveagoodknowledgeofprobability.Inamanufacturing
operation,thereareveryfewoccasionswhencompleteinformationisavailable.Therefore,
informationmustbegeneralizedfromsamplesandlimitedknownfacts.Itissometimes
surprisingtodiscoverthevastamountofinformationandknowledgeaboutaprocessthatcan
beobtainedfromarelativelysmallamountofdata.Probabilityisthebuildingblockofstatistics
andstatisticalqualitycontrol.

2.0EVENTS

Aneventisdefinedasanyoutcomethatcanoccur.Therearetwomaincategoriesofevents:
DeterministicandProbabilistic.

Adeterministiceventalwayshasthesameoutcomeandispredictable100%ofthe
time.

Distancetraveled=timexvelocity
Thespeedoflight
Thesunrisingintheeast
JamesBondwinningthefightwithoutascratch

Aprobabilisticeventisaneventforwhichtheexactoutcomeisnotpredictable
100%ofthetime.

Thenumberofheadsintentossesofacoin
ThewinneroftheWorldSeries
ThenumberofgamesplayedinaWorldSeries
Thenumberofdefectsinabatchofproduct

Inaboxingmatchtheremaybethreepossibleevents.(Therecouldbemoredependingonthe
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questionasked.)

FighterAwins
FighterBwins
Draw

2.1FourBasicTypesofEvents

MutuallyExclusiveEvents:Theseareeventsthatcannotoccuratthesametime.The
causeofmutuallyexclusiveeventscouldbeaforceofnatureoramanmadelaw.Being
twentyfiveyearsoldandalsobecomingpresidentoftheUnitedStatesaremutually
exclusiveeventsbecausebylawthesetwoeventscannotoccuratthesametime.

ComplementaryEvents:Theseareeventsthathavetwopossibleoutcomes.The
probabilityofeventAplustheprobabilityofA'equalsone.P(A)+P(A')=1.AnyeventA
anditscomplementaryeventA'aremutuallyexclusive.Headsortailsinonetossofa
coinarecomplementaryevents.

IndependentEvents:Thesearetwoormoreeventsforwhichtheoutcomeofonedoes
notaffecttheother.Theyareeventsthatarenotdependentonwhatoccurredpreviously.
Eachtossofafaircoinisanindependentevent.

ConditionalEvents:Theseareeventsthataredependentonwhatoccurredpreviously.
Iffivecardsaredrawnfromadeckoffiftytwocards,thelikelihoodofthefifthcardbeing
anaceisdependentontheoutcomeofthefirstfourcards.

3.0PROBABILITY

Probabilityisdefinedasthechancethataneventwillhappenorthelikelihoodthataneventwill
happen.

Thedefinitionofprobabilityis

Thefavorableeventsaretheeventsofinterest.Theyaretheeventsthatthequestionis
addressing.Thetotaleventsareallpossibleeventsthatcanoccurrelevanttothequestion
asked.Inthisdefinition,favorablehasnothingtodowithsomethingbeingdefectiveornon
defective.

Whatistheprobabilityofaheadoccurringinonetossofacoin?

Thenumberoffavorableeventsis1(onehead)andthenumberoftotaleventsis2(heador
tail).Inthiscase,theprobabilityformulaverifieswhatisobvious.

Probabilitynumbersalwaysrange
from0to1indecimalsorfrom0to100inpercentages.
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3.1NotationforProbabilityQuestions

Insteadofwritingoutthewholequestion,thefollowingnotationisused.

WhatistheprobabilityofeventAoccurring?=Probability(A)=P(A)
WhatistheprobabilityofeventsAandBoccurring?=P(AandB)=P(A)and
P(B)
WhatistheprobabilityofeventsAorBoccurring?=P(AorB)=P(A)orP(B)

3.2ProbabilityinTermsofAreas

Probabilitymayalsobedefinedintermsofareasratherthanthenumberofevents.

Example1

Aplanedropsaparachutistatrandomonasevenbyfivemilefield.Thefieldcontainsa
twobyonemiletargetasshownbelow.Whatistheprobabilitythattheparachutistwill
landinthetargetarea?Assumethattheparachutistdropsrandomlyanddoesnotsteer
theparachute.

4.0METHODSTODETERMINEPROBABILITYVALUES

Therearethreemajormethodsusedtodetermineprobabilityvalues.

SubjectiveProbability:Thisisaprobabilityvaluebasedonthebestavailable
knowledgeormaybeaneducatedguess.Examplesarebettingonhorse
races,selectingstocksormakingproductmarketingdecisions.

PrioriProbability:Thisisaprobabilityvaluethatcanbedeterminedpriorto
anyexperimentationortrial.Forexample,theprobabilityofobtainingatailin
tossingacoinonceisfiftypercent.Thecoinisnotactuallytossedtodetermine
thisprobability.Itissimplyobservedthattherearetwofacestothecoin,one
ofwhichistailsandthatheadsandtailsareequallylikely.

EmpiricalProbability:Thisisaprobabilityvaluethatisdeterminedby
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experimentation.Anexampleofthisisamanufacturingprocesswhereafter
checkingonehundredparts,fivearefounddefective.Ifthesampleofone
hundredpartswasrepresentativeofthetotalpopulation,thentheprobabilityof
findingadefectivepartis.05(5/100).Thequestionmaybeasked:Howisit
knownthatthissampleisrepresentativeofthetotalpopulation?Ifrepeated
trialsaverage.05defective,withlittlevariationbetweentrials,thenitcanbe
saidthattheempiricalprobabilityofadefectivepartis.05.

5.0MULTIPLICATIONTHEOREM

Themultiplicationtheoremisusedtoanswerthefollowingquestions:

Whatistheprobabilityoftwoormoreeventsoccurringeithersimultaneously
orinsuccession?

FortwoeventsAandB:WhatistheprobabilityofeventAandeventB
occurring?

Theindividualprobabilityvaluesaresimplymultipliedtoarriveattheanswer.Theword"and"is
thekeywordthatindicatesmultiplicationoftheindividualprobabilities.Themultiplication
theoremisapplicableonlyiftheeventsareindependent.Itisnotvalidwhendealingwith
conditionalevents.Theproductoftwoormoreprobabilityvaluesyieldstheintersectionor
commonareaoftheprobabilities.TheintersectionisillustratedbytheVenndiagramsinsection
11.0ofthischapter.Mutuallyexclusiveeventsdonothaveanintersectionorcommonarea.
Theprobabilityoftwoormoremutuallyexclusiveeventsisalwayszero.

Formutuallyexclusiveevents:

P(A)andP(B)=0

Forindependentevents:

Probability(AandB)=P(A)andP(B)=P(A)XP(B)

Formultipleindependentevents,themultiplicationformulaisextended.Theprobabilitythatfive
eventsA,B,C,DandEoccuris

P(A)andP(B)andP(C)andP(D)andP(E)=P(A)xP(B)xP(C)xP(D)xP(E)

Example2

Whatistheprobabilityofgettingaraiseandthatthesunwillshinetomorrow?

Given:Probabilityofgettingaraise=P(r)=.10

Probabilityofthesunshining=P(s)=.30

Theeventsareindependent.

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P(raise)andP(sunshine)=P(r)xP(s)=.10x.30=.03or3%

6.0ADDITIONTHEOREM

Theadditiontheoremisusedtoanswerthefollowingquestions:

Whatistheprobabilityofoneeventoranothereventorbotheventsoccurring?

WhatistheprobabilityofeventAoreventBoccurring?

Theword"or"indicatesadditionoftheindividualprobabilities.Theanswerstotheabove
questionsaredifferentdependingonwhethertheeventsaremutuallyexclusiveorindependent.

Mutuallyexclusiveeventsdonothaveanintersectionorcommonarea.Theindividual
probabilitiesaresimplyaddedtoarriveattheanswer.Formutuallyexclusiveevents:

P(AorB)=P(A)orP(B)=P(A)+P(B)

P(AorBorCorD)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(D)

Fortwoindependentevents,theintersectingorcommonareamustbesubtractedoritwillbe
includedtwice.(RefertotheVenndiagraminsection11.0).

Probability(AorB)=P(A)orP(B)=P(A)+P(B)P(AXB)

Forthreeindependentevents:

P(AorBorC)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)P(AXB)P(AXC)P(BXC)+P(AXBXC)

Example3

Whatistheprobabilityofgettingaraiseorthatthesunwillshinetomorrow?

Given:Probabilityofgettingaraise=P(r)=.10

Probabilityofthesunshining=P(s)=.30

P(raise)orP(sunshine)=P(r)orP(s)=P(rors)

P(rors)=P(r)+P(s)[P(r)xP(s)]=.10+.30[.10X.30]=.40.03=.37or37%

Theword"and"isassociatedwiththemultiplicationtheoremandtheword"or"is
associatedwiththeadditiontheorem.

7.0COUNTINGTECHNIQUESPERMUTATIONSANDCOMBINATIONS

Permutationsandcombinationsaresimplymathematicaltoolsusedforcounting.Inmany
cases,itmaybecumbersometocountthenumberoffavorableeventsorthenumberoftotal
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eventswhensolvingprobabilityproblems.Permutationsandcombinationshelpsimplifythe
task.

7.1Permutations

Apermutationisanarrangementofthings,objectsoreventswheretheorderisimportant.
Telephonenumbersarespecialpermutationsofthenumerals0to9whereeachnumeral
maybeusedmorethanonce.Theorderdefineseachuniquetelephonenumber.

Inthefollowingexample,itisassumedthateachobjectisuniqueandcannotbeused
morethanonce.ThelettersA,B,andCmaybearrangedinthefollowingways:

ABCBACCAB

ACBBCACBA

Thisisanorderedarrangement,becauseABCisdifferentthanBCA.Sincetheorderof
thelettersmakesadifference,eacharrangementisapermutation.Fromtheabove
example,Itisconcludedthattherearesixpermutationsthatcanbemadefromthree
objects.Thegeneralformulaforpermutationsis

nPr=

n=Thetotalobjectstoarrange

r=Thenumberofobjectstakenfromthetotaltobeusedinthearrangements

Bydefinition:0!=1and1!=1

Example4

UsingthepermutationformulaandthethreelettersA,BandC,howmanypermutations
canbemadeusingallthreeletters?

Example5

Howmanypermutationscanbemadebyusingtwooutofthethreeletters?

Thepermutationsare

ABBABC

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ACCACB

Example6

Therearethreedifferentassemblyoperationstobeperformedinmakingacertainpart.
Thereareninepeopleworkingonthefloor.Howmanydifferentassemblycrewscanbe
formed?

Thismaybestatedasthenumberofpermutationsthatcanbemadefromnineobjects
usedthreeatatime.

7.2Combinations

Acombinationisagroupingorarrangementofobjectswheretheorderdoesnotmakea
difference.

ThearrangementofthelettersABCisthesameasBCA.Thenumberofcombinations
thatcanbemadebyusingthreeletters,threeatatime,isone.Thiscanbeexpandedto
statethatthenumberofcombinationsthatcanbemadebyusingnletters,natatime,is
one.AhandoffivecardsconsistingofaJack,aQueen,aKing,andtwoAcesisthesame
asaQueen,twoAces,aJackandaKing.Theorderinwhichthecardswerereceived
makesnodifference.Thereisonlyonecombinationthatcanbemadebyusingfivecards,
fiveatatime.

Theformulaforcombinationsis

n=Totalobjectstoarrange

r=Numberofobjectstakenfromthetotaltobeusedinthearrangements

Thesymbolfornumberofcombinationsisoftenshownas

Whenthesymbolappearsinaformula,thenumberofcombinationsistobecomputed
usingthecombinationformula.

Example7

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FromthethreelettersA,BandC,howmanycombinationscanbemadebyusingtwoout
ofthethreeletters?

Thecombinationsare

ABACBC

BAisthesameasAB

CAisthesameasAC

CBisthesameasBC

Example8

Tenpartshavebeenmanufactured.Twopartsaretobeinspectedforacriticaldimension.
Howmanydifferentsamplearrangementscanbemade?

Ifthepartsarelabeled1to10,thenparts1and5makeonearrangement,parts3and7
makeanother,6and8another,etc.Thelistingofthevariousarrangementscanbe
completedandtotalarrangementscounted.Thecombinationformulacanperformthis
taskandsaveaconsiderableamountoftime.

Thetotalarrangementsorcombinationsthatcanbemade:

Thepermutationandcombinationformulasareveryusefultoolsinevaluatingandsolving
probabilityproblems.Itisoftennecessarytocountthenumberoffavorableandtotal
eventsthatcanoccur.Withoutthesecountingtechniques,thiswouldbeavery
cumbersomeandsometimesimpossibletask.

8.0PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONS

Probabilitydistributionsandtheirassociatedformulasandtablesallowustosolveawide
varietyofproblemsinalogicalmanner.Probabilitydistributionsareclassifiedasdiscreteor
continuous.Threediscretedistributionswillbereviewedinthischapter.Continuous
distributionsarecoveredinthenextchapter.Probabilitydistributionsareusedtogenerate
samplingplans,predictyields,arriveatprocesscapabilities,determinetheoddsingamesof
chanceandmanyotherapplications.

Thethreediscretedistributionsthatwillbereviewed:

TheHypergeometricProbabilityDistribution
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TheBinomialProbabilityDistribution
ThePoissonProbabilityDistribution

Oneofthemostdifficulttasksforabeginningstudentinprobabilityistoknowwhichdistribution
orformulatouseforaspecificproblem.Aroadmapisgiveninsection10.0ofthischapterto
assistinthetask.

Thequalityengineermaybeaskedtocalculatetheprobabilityofthenumberofdefectsorthe
numberofdefectiveunitsinasample.Thereisadifferencebetweenthetwophrases.Adefect
isanindividualfailuretomeetarequirement.Adefectiveunitisaunitofproductthatcontains
oneormoredefects.Manydefectscanoccurononedefectiveunit.

8.1TheHypergeometricProbabilityDistribution

Thehypergeometricdistributionisthebasicdistributionofprobability.Thehypergeometric
probabilityformulaissimplythenumberoffavorableeventsdividedbythenumberoftotal
events.Itcanbedescribedasthetruebasicprobabilitydistributionofattributes.Touse
thehypergeometricformula,thefollowingvaluesmustbeknown.

N=Thetotalnumberofitemsinthepopulation(lotsize)

n=Thenumberofitemstobeselectedfromthepopulation(samplesize)

A=Thenumberinthepopulationhavingagivencharacteristic

B=Thenumberinthepopulationhavinganothercharacteristic

a=ThenumberofAthatisdesiredtooccur

b=ThenumberofBthatisdesiredtooccur

Thehypergeometricprobabilityformulais

Example9

Anurncontainsfifteenballs,fiveredandtengreen.Whatistheprobabilityofobtaining
exactlytworedandthreegreenballsindrawingfiveballswithoutreplacement?

Thisquestionmayalsobestatedas:

Whatistheprobabilityofobtainingtworedballs?
Whatistheprobabilityofobtainingthreegreenballs?

Allthreequestionsarethesame.Whensettinguptheproblem,alleventsmustbe
consideredregardlessofhowthequestionisasked.

Inthiscase,theprobabilityofasingleeventisnotconstantfromtrialtotrial.Thisisthe
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sameassamplingwithoutreplacement.Theoutcomeoftheseconddrawwillbeaffected
bywhatwasobtainedonthefirstdraw.Thenumberoffavorableeventsandthenumber
oftotaleventsmustbecomputed.

Thenumberofwaysthatredballsmaybeselected:

Thenumberofwaysthatgreenballsmaybeselected:

Thetotalnumberofwaystoselectasampleoffiveballsfromapopulationoffifteenballs:

Thisisaspecificapplicationofthehypergeometricprobabilityformula.Manysimilar
problemsmaybesolvedusingthismethod.Tousethehypergeometricformula,the
populationmustbesmallenoughsothatthenumberofitemswiththecharacteristicsin
questioncanbedetermined.

Example10

Aboxcontainstenassembliesofwhichtwoaredefective.Asampleofthreeassemblies
isselectedatrandom.Whatistheprobabilitythatthetwodefectivepartswillbeselected?
(Forthistooccurtheremustbetwodefectivepartsandonegoodpartinthesample.)

8.2TheBinomialProbabilityDistribution

Thebinomialprobabilityformulaisusedwheneventsareclassifiedintwowayssuchas
good/defective,red/green,go/nogo,etc.TheprefixBimeanstwo.Theeventsortrials
mustbeindependent.Whenthebinomialformulaisused,itisassumedthatthelotsizeis
infiniteandtheprobabilityofasinglesuccessisconstantfromtrialtotrial.

Thebinomialprobabilityformulaisbeusedtoanswerthefollowingquestion:Whatisthe
probabilityofxsuccessesinntrialswheretheprobabilityofasinglesuccessisp?.

Thebinomialformulais

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Example11

Acoinistossedfivetimes.(Thisisthesameasasamplesizeoffive).Whatisthe
probabilityofobtainingexactlytwoheadsinthefivetosses?

Itisknown,bypriorknowledge,thattheprobabilityofasinglesuccess(probabilityofa
headinonetossofacoin)isfiftypercent.Thequestionislookingfortwosuccessesor
twoheadsinfivetossesofacoin.Asuccessistheoutcomethatisdesiredtooccur.

Forthisexample:

Thenumberoftrials=n=5

Theprobabilityofasingleevent=p=1/2

Thenumberofsuccessesthatthequestionisseeking(x=2).

Toarriveattheanswertothequestionthevaluesareenteredinthebinomialformula.

Example12

Inmanufacturingscrewdrivers,itwasempiricallydeterminedthattheprocessyields,on
average,5%defectiveproduct.Whatistheprobabilitythatinasampleoften
screwdriversthereareexactlythreedefectiveunits?

n=10,p=.05,x=3

Example13

Acompanyproduceselectronicchipsbyaprocessthatnormallyaverages2%defective
products.Asampleoffourchipsisselectedatrandomandthepartsaretestedforcertain
characteristics.

a.Whatistheprobabilitythatexactlyonechipisdefective?

b.Whatistheprobabilitythatmorethanonechipisdefective?

Morethanonedefectivechipinasampleoffourmeanstwo,threeorfourdefective
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chips.Theprobabilityofeachmaybecalculatedusingthebinomialformula.

P(morethan1defectivechip)=P(2)orP(3)orP(4)=P(2)+P(3)+P(4)

Inanytrialorsample,thesumoftheprobabilitiesoftheindividualeventsalways
equalone.Inthisproblem:P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)=1

P(morethan1defective)=1[P(0)+P(1)]=1[.9224+.0753]=.0023

8.3ThePoissonProbabilityDistribution

ThePoissondistributionisthemathematicallimittothebinomialdistributionandmaybe
usedtoapproximatebinomialprobabilities.ThePoissonisalsoadistributioninitsown
rightwhensolvingproblemsinvolvingdefectsperunitratherthanfractiondefectives.
TablesshowingsubsetsofPoissonprobabilitiesappearinmanytextbooks.Thetables
greatlysimplifythesolutionofmanyproblems.ThemostextensivePoissontableis
Poisson'sExponentialBinomialLimitbyE.C.Molina.Thetablesweredevelopedinthe
1920sandpublishedin1949.

Ifnislargeandpissmallsothatntimesp(np)isapositivenumberlessthanfive,then
thePoissonisagoodapproximationtothebinomial.Thevaluepandtheration/Nshould
belessthan0.10.

WhensolvingbinomialproblemswiththePoissonformula,thetermsn,xandparethe
sameasinthebinomialformula.Thetaskistocalculatetheprobabilityofxsuccessesin
ntrials,wheretheprobabilityofasinglesuccessisp.Rememberthatpisafraction
defectivewhenusedtoapproximatethebinomial,andpisdefectsperunitwhencounting
thenumberofdefectsinsteadofthenumberofdefectiveunits.

Insomecasesneithernnorpisgiven,buttheproductnpmaybegiven.Ifpisafraction
defectivethennpistheaveragenumberofdefectiveunitsinthesample.Ifpisintermsof
defectsperunitthennpistheaveragenumberofdefectsinthesample.

ThePoissonformulais

Example14

Inmakingswitches,ithasbeendeterminedbyempiricalstudiesthatthereis,onaverage,
onedefectperswitch.Whatistheprobabilityofselectingasampleoffiveswitchesthat
containszerodefects?Therearetwomethodstosolvethisproblem.Thefirstmethodis
tousetheaboveformulawherex=0,n=5,andp=1,therefore

np=5x1=5.
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ThesecondandmostwidelyusedmethodistousethePoissontablesthatarepublished
inmoststatisticsbooks.Tousethetables,findthevalueofxintheleftmostcolumn,then
findthevalueofnponthetoprowandreadP(x)attheintersectionofthetwovalues.

ThePoissontablevalueforP(0)=.006738or.674%

Example15

Inapapermakingoperationitwasfoundthateach1000footrollcontained,onaverage,
onedefect.Onerollisselectedatrandomfromtheprocess.

a.Whatistheprobabilitythatthisrollcontainszerodefects?

UsethePoissontablewherex=0andnp=1.ThePoissontablevalueforP(0)=.368.

b.Whatistheprobabilitythattherollcontainsexactlythreedefects?

ThePoissontablevalueforP(3)=.061

c.Whatistheprobabilitythatthisrollcontainsmorethanonedefect?

P(morethanonedefect)=P(2)+P(3)+P(4)++P()

=1[P(0)+P(1)]

=1[.368+.368]=.264

Example16

InmanufacturingtheQuemodelcar,astudydeterminedthatonaveragetherearethree
defectspercar.WhatistheprobabilityofbuyingaQuewithlessthanthreedefects?

P(lessthan3defects)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)

UsethePoissontablesandfindP(0),P(1)andP(2)wherenp=3

P(lessthan3defects)=.049+.149+.224=.422

9.0CONDITIONALPROBABILITY

Conditionalprobabilityisdefinedastheprobabilityofaneventoccurringifanotherhas
occurredorhasbeenspecifiedtooccursimultaneously,andtheoutcomeofthefirstevent
affectstheprobabilityofthesecondevent.Conditionaleventsarenotindependent.

TheprobabilityofBoccurringgiventhatAhasalreadyoccurredisstatedasP(B/A),wherethe
symbol/means"giventhat."

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Theformulasforconditionalprobabilityareshownbelow.TheseareknownasBayesFormulas.

SincethetwoformulashaveacommontermP(A&B),theymaybeusedtogethertosolve
manyproblemsinvolvingconditionalprobability.

ConditionaleventsarenotindependentsoP(A&B)isnotequaltoP(A)XP(B).FromBayes
formulas:

P(A&B)=P(B/A)P(A)

P(A&B)=P(A/B)P(B)

Example17

Alotoffifteenitemscontainsfivedefectiveitems.Twoitemsaredrawnatrandom.What
istheprobabilitythattheseconditemdrawnwillbedefective?

LetA=eventthatfirstitemisdefective

LetA'=eventthatfirstitemisgood

LetB=eventthatseconditemisdefective

Thequestionstatedinprobabilityterms:whatisP(B)=?

P(A)=5/15,P(A')=10/15

P(B)=P(A&B)orP(A'&B)P(firstitemdefective&seconditemdefective)or

P(firstitemgood&seconditemdefective)

P(B)=P(B/A)P(A)orP(B/A')P(A')

P(B)=P(B/A)P(A)+P(B/A')P(A')

P(B)=(4/14)(5/15)+(5/14)(10/15)

P(B)=(20/210)+(50/210)=70/210=.333

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Example18

Ithasbeenfoundthat10%ofcertainrelayshavebentcoversandwillnotwork.If40%
havebentcovers,whatistheprobabilitythatarelaywithabentcoverwillnotwork?

LetA=eventthatrelayshavebentcovers

LetB=eventthatrelayswillnotwork

Given:P(A&B)=.10,P(A)=.40

Thefirstformulaoftheconditionalprobabilityformulas,Bayesformulas,givesthe
followingsolution:

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11.0
VENN

DIAGRAMS

Venndiagramsshowtheeventsandcorrespondingprobabilitiesingraphicalform.Theevents
areshownascirclesandtheshadedareawithinthecirclesrepresenttheprobabilities.

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