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(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/category/economics/) > Problems facing UK economy post Brexit

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Problems facing UK economy post Brexit

Tejvan Pettinger December 10, 2016 (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21157/economics/problems-facing-uk-economy-post-brexit/) economics
(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/category/economics/)

After the UKs decision to leave the EU, what economic problems will it face?

Summary of problems

1. Devaluation of Pound Sterling, increasing price of imported goods, such as food, oil, manufacturers and domestic ination.
2. Decline in capital ows as UK is seen as more risky place to invest and save.
3. Decline in inward investment. UK is currently 3rd largest destination for inward investment in world, but this may fall when it is outside
the EU.
4. UKs large current account decit, which will put further downward pressure on Sterling
5. Decline in business and consumer condence. Uncertainty will delay investment decisions.
6. Limited room for monetary easing with interest rates already 0.5%.
7. UK Budget decit likely to be adversely aected. This will limit role of scal policy and possibly leading to higher taxes and / or lower
spending in the long-term.
8. Firms relocating to within EU / Single Market, leading to job losses.
9. Short run economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, indicating likelihood of slower rates of economic growth in 2017.
10. Long run trend rate of economic growth likely to be adversely aected by new trade deals and less inward investment.
11. Rise in unemployment due to decline in investment.
12. Decline in immigration may lead to labour shortages in certain areas, making labour markets less exible.
13. Fall in house prices leading to negative wealth eect.
14. Diculties of arranging new trade deal in a world which shows signs of greater protectionist sentiments.

Possible benets to economy of Brexit

Devaluation of Pound will provide a boost to manufacturing exporters.

Devaluation necessary to reduce long-term current account decit.
Economies are resilient and recessions only temporary. Furthermore, consumer spending post June referendum vote has proved more
resilient than many forecasts.
The decline in inward investment and trade may be less than feared as rms work hard to take a realistic view to look after their
protability.
Others argue the UK will save on its 9.9bn of net contributions to EU mitigating impact of falling migration and lower growth.
The whole process of leaving the EU will take time, so in theory there should be no sudden major change in trading conditions.
Supporters of hard Brexit (leaving Single Market and customs union) argue that outside the EU, it will be easier to negotiate proper
free trade deals rather than current EU deals, which can involve high taris on imports of food.

Problems in more detail

1. Likely recession

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(http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/real-gdp-per-capita.png)

City forecasters have downgraded growth forecasts. For example, the OBR have cut UK GDP forecast for 2017 from growth of2.3% to 1.4%.
These growth downgrade is due to UKs retreat from globalisation, likely decline in investment, uncertainty leading to projects and spending
being put on hold, and rms relocating to within the EU.

The UK has still not caught up with lost output from 2008 recession. In recent years, real GDP per capita growth has been low and the
recovery tentative. Although consumer spending has been resilient in 2016, rising cost-push ination in 2017 and weak wage growth, could
see increased pressure on economic growth in 2017.

2. Fall in investment

(http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/business-investment-05-15.png)

Business investment is highly volatile. The uncertainty over leaving EU may be enough for business to wait and see before committing to
major investment projects. A fall in investment will reduce demand and limit economic growth.

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(http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/FDI-inward-
position-uk.png)

Source: OECD. The importance of inward investment to UK economy since 2005

The fall in inward investment is likely to be even greater as membership of the EU was a large attraction of investing in the UK. In recent
years, inward investment has become very important for UK economy. See: Levels of UK Inward investment
(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21007/economics/uk-levels-of-foreign-direct-investment-fdi/)

Firms relocating to EU
Already rms like Vodaphone have indicated they are likely to relocate to the EU. If a signicant number of rms do actually move to EU, this
will lead to job losses and lower economic growth in the UK. China has also indicated it sees the UK as less attractive place to invest now UK
is outside the EU. Though there is some debate about the extent to which investment will fall. Richard Branson has claimed thousands of
jobs will be lost due to decline in investment (Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/28/richard-branson-investors-
pulling-out-of-uk-after-brexit-vote)), though he did campaign strongly for Remain.

Budget de cit

(http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/net-borrowing-percent-gdp.png)

Since the nancial crisis, the UK has seen public sector debt (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/) rise to
over 80% of GDP, and record peace-time budget decits. With bond yields falling to record lows, there is actually a strong economic case for
delaying further austerity and even pursuing scal expansion to deal with fall in condence. However, the current government have
committed to very strict budget rules, (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/16901/debt/does-the-uk-need-a-scal-rule/) which will see lower
growth lead to tax rises and spending cuts. This scal contraction will adversely aect economic growth.

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The governments budget is likely to be hit by Brexit because:

1. Lower economic growth reduces tax revenues and increases spending on benets.
2. Decline in net migration will also reduce tax revenues. Net migration has positive impact on public nances (young workers more likely
to pay taxes and not receive health care and pensions.)

Current account de cit

(http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/current-account-2001-15.png)

The UK has had a persistent current account decit since the de-industrialisation of the 1980s. In recent years, the current account has
deteriorated, partly due to relatively higher growth in the UK, but also long-term structural issues. This decit is currently nanced by capital
ows both nancial and inward investment. The concern is outside the EU, these capital ows will dry up, leading to a prolonged fall in the
Pound, which could be destabilising and reduce living standards due to higher prices. The current account decit also shows the relative
weakness of the UK exporting sector. A devaluation will provide a boost to competitiveness, though it may not be enough to deal with
underlying structural weakness.

Devaluation of Pound Sterling

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(http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/sterling-index-june-24-16.png)

Sterling exchange rate index, which shows value of Sterling against basket of currencies.

A devaluation in the Pound will lead to more expensive imports, reducing eective disposable income and possibly leading to lower
consumer spending. The concern is how much the Pound will fall against the Dollar; declining capital ows combined with current account
decit will put strong downward pressure.

Sometimes devaluations in the Pound can give a real boost to the economy because exports become cheaper. For example, the 1992
devaluation (http://econ.economicshelp.org/2008/12/exchange-rate-mechanism-crisis-1992.html) helped UK recovery. However, it may
be dierent in 2016. In 1992, interest rates also fell dramatically as the Pound devalued. In 2016, interest rates are already 0.5%. Also, it
depends on how Brexit and other factors like Chinese slowdown aect economic growth in Europe and US. It is likely there will be
some negative condence shock in Europe (which is already very fragile). Lower growth in Europe could see the depreciation in the
value of the Pound have only a limited impact on increasing demand because of weak global export demand.

UK House prices
Uncertainty, lower growth and lower condence could see a fall in demand for houses, leading to a fall in UK house prices. Falling house
prices cause a negative wealth eect and traditionally have signicant negative impact on UK economic growth. (e.g. 1990 and 2008)

On the other hand, house prices are very higher, lower prices may be good news for rst time buyers and renters. Also, the fundamental
issue of demand greater than supply will not change post-Brexit, so the fall may be less than you would usually expect.

Rising in personal debt

Although consumer spending has been strong in 2016, this is partly due to households willingness to borrow more and run down savings.
Household saving minus pension saving is forecast to fall below 0% by 2021. (Telegraph link
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/26/four-charts-show-britons-living-beyond-means/))

Reasons to be less pessimistic

Economies are exible and we have overcome serious recessions in the past. We have seen the decline of major industries, like steel,
but new industries and replace them over time (even if service sector jobs have more insecurity than former full time manufacturing jobs).
Even if there was an exodus of banks to Europe (and there is no guarantee this will happen), Londons economy would be resilient to
overcome this structural change.

Low global taris. Even if the UK loses full access to the Single Market, WTO rules on trade mean taris are much lower than in the 1970s.
There is a vested interest for Europe maintaining good trading relations with UK (despite political pressures to make UK suer to discourage
more countries leaving EU) therefore, there is a case to say UK will be able to continue good trading relations.

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Inward investment will continue to some extent despite leaving Single Market.

Conclusion

The UK is not in a strong position. Even without Brexit the economy was relatively weak, and unbalanced relying too much on consumer
spending and running a persistent trade decit. With the UK likely to reject a full Single Market approach (to have controls on immigration) it
is hard to see that not aecting the attractiveness of the UK as a place for inward investment. In the short term uncertainty as we debate
best way forward will also have some kind of negative impact on investment, spending and economic growth. There is a possibility of a real
negative multiplier eect with initial falls in spending causing knock on eects in both UK and Europe.

However, on the other hand, it is important not to get carried away with worse case scenarios. The Bank of England has proved it is very
willing to intervene and avoid the worse of any fall in demand. Economies are resilient and seemingly very bad situations have also provided
new opportunities. But, the fundamental point is that no one fully knows. Brexit is a real step into the unknown and how it will play out is
hard to predict with uncertainty. But, at the moment, it is really hard to see anything but some kind of economic shock in both short term
and medium term.

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(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21157/economics/problems-facing-uk-economy-post-brexit/).

Impact of US taris (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/24571/trade/impact-of-us- Reasons for falling wages (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/24597/labour-

taris/) markets/reasons-for-falling-wages/)

2 thoughts on Problems facing UK economy post Brexit

Michael says: December 14, 2016 at 10:12 am
(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21157/economics/problems-
facing-uk-economy-post-brexit/#comment-340639)

Is it right we cannot do free trade deals with Countries outside the EU if we dont get an exit deal ?

I.e we have to deal on WTO terms as the default position both with the EU and with the rest of the world.

Its argued by Brexit politicians that WTO taris are low but are they lower than the EU common external taris for member states
importing from non-union Countries ?

Or would they have to be no higher than WTO taris for our imports ?

It wouldnt seem right or fair to me that having left the EU, we couldnt do bi-lateral deals on whatever terms suits us.

Reply (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21157/economics/problems-facing-uk-economy-post-brexit/?replytocom=340639#respond)

Richard A Cooper says: February 25, 2017 at 3:23 am

(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21157/economics/problems-
facing-uk-economy-post-brexit/#comment-342128)

For those companies based in uk, they may even relocate to the EU in order to maintain competitive advantage in the world. For
example Jaguar/Landrover may move their production to elsewhere in the EU or the world.

Reply (http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/21157/economics/problems-facing-uk-economy-post-brexit/?replytocom=342128#respond)

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