Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Indices of agricultural
production in Central Europe
and the former USSR 170
FIGURES
Composition of debt 34
7. Sub-Saharan Africa 76
Latin America
and the Caribbean 123
Water consumption
by region, 1900-2000 239
Acknowledgements
AAF-SAP c.i.f.
African Alternative Framework to Structural Cost, insurance and freight
Adjustment Programmes for Socio-Economic CIS
Transformation Commonwealth of Independent
ACDESS States
African Centre for Development and CMEA
Strategic Studies Council for Mutual Economic Assistance
AFB CPI
River Basin Financial Agency Consumer price index
AfDB CRP
African Development Bank Conservation Reserve Program
AFTA
ASEAN Free Trade Area DRS
AKKOR Debtor Reporting System
Association of Peasant Farms and
Cooperatives of Russia EAP
AMC Economically active population
Agricultural Marketing Corporation [CA
ARP Economic Commission for Africa
Acreage Reduction Program ECLAC
AsDB Economic Commission for Latin America
Asian Development Bank and the Caribbean
ASEAN ECU
Association of Southeast Asian Nations European Currency Unit
EDAEs
BADC Economies highly dependent on agricultural
Bangladesh Agricultural Development exports
Corporation EEC
BANRURAL European Economic Community
Banco Nacional de Crdito Rural EEP
BCA Export Enhancement Program
Benefit-cost analysis EEZ
Exclusive economic zone
CAP ERM
Common Agricultural Policy Exchange rate mechanism
CCC ERSAP
Commodity Credit Corporation Economic reform and structural adjustment
CDS programme
Conservation-based development strategy
CEC FACT
Commission of the European Communities Food, Agriculture, Conservation and
CGIAR Trade Act
Consultative Group on International FFP
Agricultural Research Food for Progress
xix
FIRA IFAD
Fideicomiso Institufdo en Relacin con International Fund for Agricultural
la Agricultura Developrnent
f.o.b. IFPRI
Free on board International Food Policy Research lnstitu e
FOCIR IIMI
Fund for Rural Investment and Capitaliza ion Internat onal Irrigation Management
FOR Institute
Farmer-Owned Reserve IMF
FSWR International Monetary Fund
Food Security Wheat Reserve IPR
FY Intellectual property rights
Fiscal year ISA
International Sugar Ag ee ent
GATT ITTO
General Agreement on Tariffs and T ade International Tropical Timber
GDP Organization
Gross domestic product
GEMS LDCs
Global Environment Monitoring System Least-developed countries
GNP LIFDCs
Gross national product Low-income food-deficit countries
GTZ LPCs
German Agency for Technical Cooperation Low-potential cropp ng areas
HYV MERCOSUR
High-yielding variety Southern Com on Ma
MTNs
IAP-WASAD Multilateral trade negot
International Action Programme on
Water and Sustainable Agricultural NAFINSA
Development Nacional Financiera
ICCO NAFTA
International Cocoa Organization North American Free Trade Associa ion
ICN NGO
International Conference on Nutrition Non-govern ental organization
'CO NIA
International Coffee Organization National I rigation Adm n stration
ICSU NMP
International Council of Scientific Net mater
Unions
ICWE OAU
International Conference on Water and Organizat
the Environment ODA
IDA Official Development Assistance
International Development Assoc ation OECD
IEFR Organisation for Economic Cooperation
International Emergency Food Reserve and Development
XX
PAEC UN
Pan-African Economic Community United Nations
PAP UNCED
Poverty Alleviation Plan United Nations Conference on Environment
PA and Development
Peasant association UNCTAD
PECE United Nations Conference on Trade and
Pact for Economic Stabilization and Growth Development
PEM UNDP
Protein-energy malnutrition United Nations Development Programme
PRONASOL UNEP
National Solidarity Programme United Nations Environment Programme
PSE Unesco
Producer subsidy equivalent United Nations Educational, Scientific and
PTA Cultural Organization
Preferential Trade Area for Eas e n and UNICEF
Southern African States United Nations Children's Fund
UNIDO
RBC United Nations Industrial Development
River Basin Committee Organization
UNSO
SAARC United Nations Sudano-Sahelian Office
South Asian Association for Regional USAID
Cooperation United States Agency for International
SADC Development
Southern African Deve opment
Community VMR
SADCC Volun ary marketed rice
Southern African Development Coordination
Conference WFP
SAFTA VVorld Food Programme
South Asian Free Trade Area WHO
SAHR VVorld Health 0 ganization
Secretariat of State for Agr cultu e and Water VVMO
Resources World Meteorological Organization
SAM WRI
Mexican Food System VVorld Resources Institute
SICA
Central American Integration Sys eri ZEN-NOH
SIVI
National Federation of Agricultural
Suspended particulate rnatter Cooperative Associations
ZENCHU
TGE Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives
Transitional Government of Ethiopia
TNC
Trade Negotiations Committee
TRQ
Tariff-rate quota
xxi
Explanatory note
The following symbols are used in the tables: values of exports (f.o.b.) and imports (c.i.f.),
none or negligible all expressed in US dollars. When countries
not available report imports valued at f.o.b. (free on
1991/92 a crop, marketing or fiscal board), these are adjusted to approximate
year running from one c.i.f. (cost, insurance, freight) values. This
calendar year to the next method of estimation shows a discrepancy
1990-92 average for three calendar whenever the trend of insurance and freight
years diverges from that of the commodity unit
values.
Figures in statistical tables may not add Volumes and unit value indices represent
up because of rounding. Annual changes the changes in the price-weighted sum of
and rates of change have been calculated quantities and of the quantity-weighted unit
from unrounded figures. Unless otherwise values of products traded between countrie
indicated, the metric system is used The weights are, respectively, the price and
throughout. quantity averages of 1979-81, which is the
The dollar sign ($) refers to US dollars. base reference period used for all the index
"Billion", used throughout, is equal to number series currently computed by FAO.
1 000 million. The Laspeyres formula is used in the
construction of the index numbers.'
Production index numbers
FAO index numbers have 1979-81 as the Definitions of "narrow" and "broad"
base period. The production data refer to The OECD definitions of agriculture are
primary commodities (e.g. sugar cane and generally used in reporting on external
sugar beet instead of sugar) and national assistance to agriculture. The narrow
average producer prices are used as weights. definition of agriculture, now referred to as
The indices for food products exclude "directly to the sector" includes the
tobacco, coffee, tea, inedible oil seeds, following items:
animal and vegetable fibres and rubber. Appraisal of natural resources
They are based on production data presented Development and management of
on a calendar-year basis.1 natural resources
e Research
Trade index numbers eSupply of production inputs
The indices of trade in agricultural products e Fertilizers
also are based on 1979-81. They include all Agricultural services
the commodities and countries shown in the Training and extension
FAO Trade Yearbook. Indices of total food e Crop production
products include those edible products o Livestock development
generally classified as "food". Fisheries
All indices represent changes in current Agriculture (subsector unal ocated)
' For full details, see FAO Production Yearbook 1992. 2 For full details, see FAO Trade Yearbook 1991.
The broad definition includes, in addition
to the above items, activities that are defined
as "indirectly to the sector". These activities
are:
o Forestry
o Manufacturing of inputs
o Agro-industries
o Rural infrastructure
o Rural development
o Regional development
o River development
Regional coverage
Developing countries include: Africa, Latin
America and the Caribbean, the Near East'
and the Far East.4
Developed countries include:5 North
America, Western Europe (including former
Yugoslavia, SFR), Oceania, Bulgaria, former
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Israel, Japan,
Poland, Romania, South Africa and the
former USSR. Albania is omitted in this
report because of insufficient data.
Country designations used in this
publication remain those current during the
period in which the data were prepared.
WORLD REVIEW
I. Current agricultural situation facts and figures
Among developing country regions, only the Near East achieved some gain
in per caput agricultural production (1.6 percent), which was, however,
inadequate to compensate for the region's losses of the previous year. In both
the Far East and Latin America and the Caribbean, gains in agricultural
production were entirely eroded by population growth. Africa recorded a
6 percent fall in per caput agricultural production, largely on account of the
drought that affected developing southern Africa.
Eastern Europe and the former USSR recorded yet another year o
production decline: it was the fifth in six years in the former USSFZ, bringing
the cumulative decline since 1987 to nearly 15 percent, and the third
consecutive decline in Eastern Europe, with the overall fall in this region
between 1989 and 1991 being more than 18 percent. VVhile in the former
USSR the shortfall in 1992 was chiefly due to a contraction in livestock
production, that in Eastern Europe mainly reflected drought-affected crops.
3
Exhibit 7
CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, 1989-1992
(Percentage change over preceding year)
' I
-3
1989 1990 1991 ' 1992
-6
AFRICA FAR EAST LATIN AMERICA NEAR EAST
-5 F'
-10
1989 1990 1991 1992
-15
NORTH AMERICA EEC OCEANIA EASTERN EUROPE FORMER USSR
Source. FAO
4
As has so often been the case in the past, the highest concentration of poor
performances was in Africa, where all but six countries suffered per caput
production losses In some cases these were catastrophic, all the more so
since they followed similarly dramatic crop shortfalls in the previous year.
This was the case of Mozambique, Somalia, the United Republic of Tanzania
and Zimbabwe. The few bright spots in the region included Chad, Ghana
and, more significantly given the population involved Nigeria. These
countries achieved sizeable gains in per caput food production for the
second consecutive year.
Exhibit 2
Solomon
Islands
Tonga
(cont.)
Source FAO
6
Exhibit 2
(cont )
Source: FAO
7
Exhibit 2
Swaziland
Tanzania,
United Rep
Finland
More Botswana Mongolia Cuba Afghanistan
than -10 Hungary
Gambia Nepal Haiti
Poland
Lesotho Singapore Suriname
Romania
Malawi
South Africa,
Morocco Rep
Mozambique Sweden
Somalia Former
Yugoslavia, SFR
Tunisia
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source, FAO
8
Exhibit 3
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION BY MAJOR COMMODITIES,
1991-1992
Commodity Developed countries Developing countries World
1991 1992 1991-1992 1991 1992 1991-1992 1991 1992 1991-1992
Change Change Change
Sugar, centrifugal
(raw)1 425 414 -26 74.1 687 -73 115 6 110 0 -4.8
-Jute +
jute-like fibres 36 3.1 -139 36 31 -13.9
Tobacco 19 19 00 57 59 35 76 78 26
Natural rubber 5.4 56 37 54 56 37
World tea production fell by about 4 percent to 2.5 million tonnes. Smaller
harvests were reported in India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Kenya and other
countries of East Africa. In Sri Lanka, severe drought conditions and serious
damage to tea bushes in several parts of the country resulted in smaller
harvests and could even affect the 1993 crop. Drought also affected eastern
countries of Africa, including Kenya, Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. The
only major producer country where an increase was reported in 1992 was
Bangladesh, mainly because of new plantings coming into production.
World production of jute, kenaf and allied fibres fell sharply to the smallest
crop since the mid-1970s: 3.1 million tonnes. This was less than half of the
previous peak of 6.5 million tonnes in 1985/86. Severe droughts in
Bangladesh and India were the main cause of the sharp decline.
World output of rubber increased by 3.7 percent to 5.6 million tonnes, with
output expanding in all major producer countries except Malaysia. Thailand
continued to show the fastest growth (12 percent) among the major producer
11
In Angola, the civil war has had disastrous consequences for national food
security Fighting has disrupted and paralysed marketing. Only international
support for relief food distribution will prevent widespread suffering.
Serious difficulties are still reported from the southern Sudan, where recent
population displacements have exacerbated the situation. Food problems
continue in Rwanda where the uncertain security situation has prevented
displaced persons from returning to their homes. In Kenya, given the
unceitain crop prospects, substantial food aid may be needed in 1993/94.
Exhibit 4
pia
Source: FAO, Global Information and Early Warning System, July 1993 In current marketing year
14
World cereal carryover stocks at the close of crop years ending in 1993 is
estimated to be 351 million tonnes, 24 million tonnes or 7 percent above the
level of 1992. Most of the increase occurred in developed countries (from
170 million tonnes in 1992 to an estimated 193 million tonnes in 1993). In
the United States alone, cereal carryover stocks increased by 31 million
tonnes, to 78 million tonnes, as a result of the major pickup mainly in coarse
grain production in 1992. Stocks in developing countries are estimated to
have expanded by approximately half a percentage point.
Exhibit 5
SUPPLY/UTILIZATION TRENDS IN CEREALS
Million tonnes (Including rice on milled basis)
1 750
1 500
1 250
1 000
750
500
250
0
1990/91 1991/92 1992/93* 1993/94' *
Others CIS*
Others
200
150
100
50
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993*
World trade in wheat and wheat flour (in wheat equivalent) is forecast to
increase by an estimated 2 million tonnes to 100 rnillion tonnes. Imports by
the developed countries are expected to rise by 1.5 million tonnes to nearly
33 million tonnes, while aggregate shipments by the developing countries
are forecast to rise only marginally, to more than 67 million tonnes.
Among the developed countries, wheat shipments to the CIS are forecast
to rise from an estimated 15 million tonnes in 1992/93 to 17 million tonnes
in 1993/94, while total wheat imports into Europe are forecast to decline by
1 million tonnes, to 5.8 million tonnes.
The forecast for world rice trade in 1993 (calendar year) is 12.7 million
tonnes, as compaied with 13.8 million tonnes in 1992. Developing country
imports should contract from 11.1 million tonnes in 1992 to 10.2 million
tonnes in 1993, while those of developed countries should fall slightly from
2.7 million tonnes in 1992 to 2.5 million tonnes in 1993.
17
Exhibit 6
150
140
130
120
110
100
90 II
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
SOUTH CENTRAL OCEANIA
AFRICA CIS
AMERICA AMERICA
40
30
20
10
0
91/92 92/93* 91/92 92/93* 91/92 92/93* 91/92 92/93 91/92 92/93*
Exhibit 7
COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE*
M Ilion $ (At constant 1985 prices)
12 000
COMMITMENTS DISBURSEMENTS
9 000
6 000
3 000
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992** 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992**
Bilateral Multilateral
Source. FAO and OECD * Broad definition ** Preliminary data
20
Of the total cereal food aid in 1992/93, 11.1 million tonnes were destined
for developing countries, cornpared with 11.9 million tonnes in 1991/92.
Deliveries to developing countries still remain significantly less than the
13.5 million tonnes delivered in 1987/88.
Shipments of food aid to the CIS and East European countries in 1992/93 is
estimated to be about 1.7 million tonnes, about the sanne level as the
previous year
As of May 1993, total pledges to WFP's regular resources for the biennium
1993-94 stood at $618 million, representing 41 percent of the pledging target
of $1.5 billion.
21
Exhibit 8
SHIPMENTS OF FOOD AID IN CEREALS
Million tonnes (Grain equivalent)
12
o
1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93'
Source, FAO Note. Yeors refer to the 12-month period July/June " Projection
22
World marine fish production declined for the third consecutive year to
81.5 million tonnes, although the decline was a marginal 0.4 percent.
Among the five major producer countries, only Chile and China expanded
production in 1992. China, the world's largest producer, continued its rapid
production expansion, which increased by 11.2 percent to reach 14.6
million tonnes, while Chile's production increased by an estimated 6 1
percent to reach 6.4 million tonnes.
Estimates for 1992 are for an increase in the value of fish traded to more
than $40 billion, a trend which is expected to continue in 1993. The share of
developing countries in world exports of fishery products is estimated to
remain stable at around 46 percent.
Exhibit 9
WORLD FISH CATCH, DISPOSITION AND TRADE
TOTAL CATCH AND DISPOSITION
Million tonnes
80
60
40
20
o
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
WORLD CATCH DISPOSITION OF WORLD CATCH
Exports
30 Imports
Trade balance
20
'o
-10
-20
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Source FAO
24
The pulp and paper industry continued to expand, albeit at a slower rate
than in the late 1980s. Production in the developing countries continued to
grow markedly, with dynamic performances in Brazil, Chile and several
countries in Southeast Asia.
Exhibit 10
05 07 IN
ROUNDWO OD
-2.1 _33 _31
-65 -79
-85
-16.1'
-276
SAWNWOOD 63
28 34 AND SLEEPERS 35
09
-12 -21
-27 -36 -37
-97
-117
53 47 40
41
75
57 51
4.7
39 ;
35
17 21
10
-120 -130
In early 1993, the Malaysian state of Sabah temporarily suspended its log
exports while, in the state of Sarawak, logging in tropical forests has been
severely curtailed since 1992. Lower timber supply from the main Asian
producers contributed to a sharp increase in prices of tropical timber in the
first part of 1993
27
WORLD REVIEW
II. Overall economic environment and agriculture
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The global economic downturn that started in 1990 has continued
into 1993 and prospects for recovery in the near term appear
particularly uncertain. After having virtually stagnated in 1991,
world economic activity is estimated to have increased by only
1.7 percent in 1992 while forecasts for 1993 point to a 2.2 percent
growth rate.'
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) estimates
world merchandise trade in 1992 to have expanded by 5.5 percent
in value and 4.5 percent in volume, the first acceleration in growth
since 1988. Current forecasts for 1993 are for trade growth of more
than 4.5 percent in volume, although a downside risk is recognized
for trade performance.2 In any event, the relatively brisk expansion
in world trade is seen as a bright spot in an economic environment
that is otherwise characterized by depressed growth and uncertain
prospects. Economic growth in the industrial countries, which
account for three-quarters of world output, is currently estimated by
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) to be a mere 1.2 percent in 1993, below the already
depressed growth levels of the previous year.
European countries are facing a particularly difficult situation:
economic recession (oddly combined with high real interest rates);
high and rising levels of unemployment; widening fiscal deficits;
and financial and currency instability which is seriously straining the
exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the EEC and adding to the
difficulties of achieving Maastricht objectives.
Japan's growth expectations for 1993 are barely of the order of
1 percent, but recent indications suggest that stimulative fiscal and
monetary measures may help recovery to take hold in 1994. With
Unless otherwise indicated, estimates and forecasts in this section are from IMF.
World Economic Outlook, April 1993.
2 GATT world trade estimates are somewhat different from those of the MF..
According to the IMF, the volume of world trade in 1992 expanded by 4.2 percent
and forecasts for 1993 point to a 5.2 percent growth.
28
Figure 1
-5
10
Industrial countries
Developing countries
Eastern Europe
15
Former USSR
World
-20
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993** 1994**
Figure 2
Trade
8 Output
o
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1994*
3 The World Bank estimates that, should China's economy continue growing in the
7 to 8 pet cent range throughout the 1990s, the size of its GDP by 2002 would be
approaching that of the United States. However, China's per caput income would
remain about one-fifth that of the United States.
32
BOX 1
EXTERNAL DEBT OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
The total external debt of the 116 share of agriculture in total debt reflects
developing countries reporting to the the fact that external finance to the sector,
World Bank's Debtor Reporting System chiefly provided by official sources, is
(DRS), estimated to be $1 418 billion at highly concessional.
end-1991, was projected to reach $1 510 Net transfers (net flows minus interest
billion in 1992. payments) related to all debts, which
For all DRS countries, the debt-to- reached a negative $16 billion in 1991, are
exports ratio in 1992 was estimated to be projected to decrease to negative $3.6
178 percent, about the same as the billion in 1992. The long-term component
previous year but much higher than in of such transfers, which were a negative
1990, when it stood at 167 percent. Yet, $23 billion in 1991, were expected to turn
from 21 percent in 1991, the ratio of debt slightly positive in 1992, with negative net
service-to-exports is projected to decline transfers to private creditors falling from
slightly to 19 percent in 1992. The debt-to- $27 billion in 1991 to $7 billion in 1992.
GNP ratio is expected to remain almost This was partly due to larger disbursements
unchanged in 1992 at 37 percent. by private creditors, which rose from $70
Regional debt indicators varied widely, billion in 1991 to $84 billion in 1992.
as shown in Figure 3. The debt situation in Debt reduction operations were
sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and estimated to have reduced the debt of all
the Caribbean are discussed in the Regional developing countries by $13 billion in
review of this report. For the group of 1992, against $9 billion in 1991. Official
severely indebted low-income countries, debt forgiveness accounted for about $6.5
the debt-to-GNP ratio stood at an billion. The reduction in private debt was
estimated 113 percent in 1992, down from done mainly through officially sponsored
117 percent in the previous year. The debt operations. Those under the Brady Plan
service-to-exports ratio was estimated to reduced debt by $4.7 billion, market buy-
be 22 percent, the same level as in 1991. back by $7.9 billion and debt-equity swaps
Developing countries' external debt by $1 billion. The Paris Club of developed
originated from agriculture-related projects creditor countries negotiated special
was estimated to be $72.2 billion in 1991, agreements under the Houston terms' with
representing approximately 6 percent of
these countries' total external debt.
Overall, this share has remained fairly ' The Houston terms are longer terms of
constant in past years, although variations repayment granted by the Paris Club for
between regions were significant. These countries that have a strong adjustment
ranged from 4 percent in Latin America programme and have performed well under
and the Caribbean to 8 to 10 percent in the previous Paris agreements. These were decided
Near East, sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia as a follow-up to the July 1990 Houston
and 15 percent in South Asia. The low economic summit.
33
Figure 3
COMPOSITION OF DEBT
LATIN AMERICA SUB-SAHARAN NEAR EAST
AND THE CARIBBEAN AFRICA AND NORTH AFRICA
Billion $ % Billion $ % Billion
480 48 200 120 160 64
240 24 100 60 80 32
180 18 75 45 60 24
120 12 50 30 40 16
60 6 25 15 20 8
O 0 0 o
1989 1990 1991 1992* 1989 1990 1991 1992f 1989 1990 1991 1992*
200 20 90 25 200 20
160 16 72 20 160 16
120 12 54 15 120 12
80 8 36 10 80
40 18
0 0 O -- o
1989 1990 1991 1992* 1989 1990 1991 1992* 1989 1990 1991 1992*
Use of IMF credit Public long-term mg= Total debt as share of GNP
Private long-term Short-term r -1 Total debt service as share of
exports of good and services
Source. World Bank World Debt Tables, 7997-92 * Projections Including former USSR
35
TABLE
TABLE 2
5 World Bank 1993 Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries.
TABLE 3A
Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Far East and Pacific Near East and
and Caribbean North Africa
Note The criteria for the definition of these groups are explained in The State of Food and Agriculture 1992, p. 11-12.
Latin America and Caribbean Far East and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa
Note The criteria for the definition of these groups are explained in The State of Food and Agriculture 1992, p. 11-12.
6 Despite their high dependence on food imports, LIFDCs rely heavily on agri-
cultural exports, which account for about 28 percent of their total export earnings.
40
Figure 4
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1994*
Figure 5A
130
120
110
100
90
80
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1994*
Figure 5B
200
175
150
125
100
75
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1994*
One of the salient features emerging from the above review is the
capacity of both groups of countries to counter adverse terms of
trade movements through expanded volumes of exports. In the case
of EDAEs, terms of trade deteriorated by a cumulative 27 percent
between 1 981 and 1992, but the purchasing power of their exports
(of which agricultural products typically account for two-thirds)
rose by a cumulative 53 percent. This is explained by the fact that,
while the unit value of their exports fell by about 5 percent,
export volumes increased by nearly 80 percent during the same
12-year period.
General factors behind such a vigorous expansion in export
volume itself a price-depressing influence included: export
promotion measures, often linked to stabilization and adjustment
programmes; improvements in factor productivity, leading to
competitive gains in world markets; and a general share in the
global expansion of trade. The relative weight of these and other
contributing factors is a research area of considerable interest from a
policy perspective. This issue will be further explored in The State of
Food and Agriculture 1994, focusing on the past experience of
agricultural export-dependent countries.
43
BOX 2
SPECIALIZATION AND COMPETITIVENESS
SELECTED ISSUES
Defined as those people whose estimated daily energy intake over a year falls
below that requited to maintain body weight and support light activity.
46
8 These data are derived from UN world export price indices of primary
commodities
52
TABLE 4
ALL COUNTRIES
Coffee 3 14 -66 -65 -61
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Cotton lint 53 52 -33 2 2
Note. Barter terms of trade = export prices (of agricultural products) deflated by import prices (of
manufactured goods and crude petroleum); income terms of trade = export earnings deflated by
import prices, single factor terms of trade = net barter terms of trade adjusted by changes in
productivity (yields per hectare).
Source FAO
trade for coffee and cocoa had been more than twice as high as in
1979-81.9The real price of rubber had peaked in the early 1950s
but the plantings spurred by this and the succeeding years of
favourable prices caused its production to continue. The level of
production incentives in earlier years would also explain growth in
the production of oil-palm, which rose substantially in the 1980s.
For some commodities there has also been an expansion of
Figure 6
EXPORT PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES
($ per tonne)
156
151 150 151 WHEAT
145
US No.2, Hard Winter,
129 ordinary protein
f o b Gulf Port
MAIZE
100 99
97 US No 2, yellow,
94 94
f o b Gulf
302
278 270 266 RICE
245
217 Thailand,
200 100% ll gr
261
246
234 SUGAR
197 200 ISA daily,
182 189
fob
1 473
COFFEE
1 282 1 264 ICO
1 207
1 117 1 133 Composite price
1 195
COCOA BEANS
1 034 ICCO daily,
996 1 010
977 average
2 395
1 988 2 032 TEA
1 858 1 908
1 679 1 627 London, average
auction pnces
1 797
COTTON,
1 458 1 464 1 465 Cotlook "A" Index,
1 398 c f UK
454
,
JUTE
320 Bangladesh
White "D"
260 260 260 260 260
fob
243 246
239 240 239 SOYBEAN
236 236
US No 2, yellow,
c f Rotterdam
- ,
1991 1992 J F M A M
Yearly average 1993 monthly average
Source: FAO
55
' Developments up to early 1992 were covered in The State of Food and
Agriculture 1992
11 GATT document MTN.TNC/VV/103 of 20 November 1992.
56
12 Haploids are organisms or cell lines that have only half of the full chro osome
complement of a normally occurring organism.
68
REGIONAL REVIEW
I. Developing county regions
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
The economic performance of sub-Saharan Africa was
dismal yet again in 1992. The average growth rate of the
region (excluding Nigeria) vvas 0.9 percent, a slight
recovery from the meagre 0.2 percent achieved in
1991.1 However-, these averages mask a great diversity
among individual countries. According to the African
Development Bank (AfDB),2 more countries (16)
experienced negative growth rates in 1992 than in the
previous year (13) and fewer countries (19) experienced
growth rates of more than 2.5 percent than in 1 991 (23).
Moreover, economic growth fell far short of population
growth. Consequently, in per caput terms, output shrank
by 1.1 percent in 1992, meaning the sixth successive
year of decline. Overall, the picture is that of vvorsening
economic and social conditions.
The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)
1 UN.1993. Economic Recovery, estimates output growth to be about 3 percent in 1993
6(4). (for Africa as a whole).3 That growth rate, if achieved,
2 AfDR. African Development would merely keep abreast with the projected
Report 1993 population growth rates.
3 ECA. Economic Report for Afri- The causes of the gloomy performance of sub-Saharan
ca 1993. UN. African countries include: Othe negative effects of the
76
Figure 7
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Ok Index
AGRICULTURAL AND
PER CAPUT
8 125 FOOD PRODUCTION
6 100
4 75
Agncultural production
2 50 growth (%)
OISOOM
Agricultural production
index (1979-81=100)
o 25
Per caput food production
index (1979-81=100)
-2 o
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Billion $
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
10
2 Exports
Imports
115
100
Value
85
Unit value
Quantity
70
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Index
AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS
120 (Index 1979-81 = 100)
110
100
90
80 Value
70 Unit value
Quantity
60
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Source. FAO
77
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
BOX 3
THE DEBT PROBLEM IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Total debt for sub-Saharan Africa was more debt, as envisaged under the "Trinidad
than $183 billion in 1992, up from about terms". Furthermore, only two countries
$178 billion in the previous year. At that had recourse in 1992 to the IDA Debt
level, the debt stock exceeded the 1992 Reduction Facility, which is oriented
annual regional GDP by 6 percent. Interest towards reducing commercial debt, because
arrears on long-term external debt alone of the creditors' reluctance and debtor
were a staggering $14 billion. Nearly one- countries' domestic constraints as well as
fifth of hard-earned export revenue was debtors' failure at times to comply with
used to service debt in 1992. Although that structural adjustment conditionality.
figure signifies a third consecutive year of Multilateral debt, rather than commercial
decline, the debt-service ratio remains or official bilateral debt, is fast becoming
stubbornly high. the major problem in sub-Saharan Africa.
A significant share (some 10 percent on During the 1980s, most countries were
average between 1985 and 1991) of total lured away from contracting commercial
debt originates from loans for projects in market debt by the prestructural adjustment
the agricultural sector. In 1991, the latest experience, commercial banks' reluctance
year for which data are available, to lend to debt-burdened countries and
outstanding agricultural long-term external donor persuasion, and they consequently
debt was just over $13 billion, up from resorted to heavier borrowing from
about $12.5 billion in the previous year. For multilateral financial institutions. Almost 40
1991 alone, net long-term flows on debt (or percent of total sub-Saharan Africa's official
net lending) to agriculture, at $727 million, long-term debt in 1992 was owed to
were the lowest since 1985; nevertheless, multilateral institutions from which the
they represented 23 percent of total net debtors can not expect debt rescheduling or
flows on debt. cancellation.
Despite years of efforts to reduce the
sub-Saharan African debt burden through
rescheduling and debt forgiveness, only a
small amount of debt has so far been
affected. In 1991, only $3.8 billion of
Africa's debt (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa)
was cancelled. During 1992, only nine
countries secured the "enhanced Toronto
terms", which allow for a cancellation of or
reduction in the interest charges offered by
some creditor countries. The amount of
debt involved is significantly less than it
would have been with the cancellation of
two-thirds of the entire stock of eligible
79
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ETHIOPIA
The country: general characteristics
Situated in northeastern Africa, Ethiopia constitutes the
largest part of the Horn of Africa.7 It spans an area of
1 223 600 km2 (one of the largest countries in Africa)
and has an altitude ranging from 100 m below sea level
to more than 4 000 m above sea level. The second most
populous African country after Nigeria, Ethiopia has a
population of 55.1 million.'
The main characteristic of the climate is its erratic
rainfall patterns. The southwest highlands receive the
highest average rainfall, while precipitation decreases
towards the northeast and the east. Even in areas with a
high mean annual rainfall, the variations can be
extreme. Chronically drought-prone areas cover almost
50 percent of the country's total area and affect about
20 million people.
Drought was at the root of at least ten famine episodes
in the last 40 years which have affected large areas and
significant portions of the population. In the last 20
years, the most serious droughts in terms of human
suffering were those of 1972-73 and 1984-85.'
The economy
Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world,
with a per caput GDP of $120 and 60 percent of its
7 Eritrea, officially independent population living below the poverty line.
since May 1993, is included in Agriculture accounts for 50 percent of the country's
most of the reported data be- GDP and 90 percent of exports. In terms of area under
cause of insufficient informa- cultivation, cereals (teff, maize, barley, wheat) are the
tion to permit systematic re- major crop category, followed by pulses (horse beans,
porting on Ethiopia only. chickpeas, haricot beans) and oilseeds (mainly neug and
81992 estimates. linseed). Coffee is the main export (accounting for 57.3
T. Desta. Disaster management percent of total agricultural exports), followed by hides
in Ethiopia:past effortsand future and skins (28 percent), live animals (3.3 percent) and
directions. Presented to the vegetables." About 78 percent of the total value of
United Nations Sudano-Sahelian production from manufacturing industries is based on
Office (UNSO) Workshop on the processing of agricultural products (food processing,
Drought Preparedness and beverages and textiles).
Mitigation. Early Warning and The smallholder sector accounts for 90 percent of the
Planning Services Relief and country's agricultural output. The average farm size is
Rehabilitation Commission, estimated to be between 1 and 1.5 ha.
Addis Ababa, May 1993. The overall growth of GDP during the 1970s and
' For more information, see T. 1980s (1.9 and 1.6 percent, respectively) closely follows
Desta, op. cit., footnote 9. the trends in the growth of agricultural production
" AGROSTAT data for 1990. (0.7 and 0.3 percent, respectively) and both magnitudes
85
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Asian and Pacific countries continued to show strong
and steady economic growth in 1992. The Asian
Development Bank (AsDB) estimates the average annual
GDP growth rate for the region to be 7 percent in 1992,
up from 6.3 percent in 1991. Despite the prolonged
global recession, the AsDB expects regional GDP to
increase by 7.2 percent in 1993. Three significant factors
contributing to the region's ability to maintain this solid
growth performance are: pa continuing increase in
disposable incomes, which is sustaining domestic
demand; ii)the continuing expansion of intraregional
trade; and ni) positive results from earlier policy reforms
in many Asian economies.
Following are some individual country experiences
in 1992:
The output of China's industrial output increased by
20 percent in 1992, contributing to the country's
irnpressive 12.8 percent increase in GDP. Even
though drought affected many parts of the country,
total grain production increased by 1.7 percent to an
estimated 443 million tonnes. Tea, sugar, tobacco,
fruit and vegetableliioduction also increased
compared with 1991 levels.
All of India's economic sectors improved in 1992
the country's GDP increased by 4.2 percent.
Agriculture, vvhich was aided by a good monsoon,
grew by 3.5 percent. Foodgrain production increased
lo a record 177 million tonnes cornpared with 167
million tonnes in 1991. However, heavy monsoon
rains and floods in July 1993 are likely to have
serious implications for this year's grain production.
In Pakistan, a 30 percent increase in cotton
production spurred agricultural GDP to a 6.4 percent
increase in 1992. The large cotton crop is attributed
to higher farmgate prices, a wider use of irnproved
seeds and favourable weather. In contrast, Nepal
experienced unfavourable weather in 1992. Its
agricultural GDP increased by only 0.5 percent and
foodgrain production declined by 6.5 percent.
e Southeast Asia reported mixed agricultural
performances. Agricultural GDP increased by 3.5
percent in Thailand and 1.2 percent in Malaysia, but
1 00
Figure 8
4 120
3 90
Agricultural production
2 60 growth (%)
8011111993
Agricultural production
1 30 index (1979-81=100)
Per caput food production
o
index (1979-81=100)
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Billion $
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
40
30
20
10
Exports
Imports
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Index
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
(Index 1979-81 = 100)
160
140
120
100
Value
80 Unit value
ta= Quantity
60
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Index
AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS
150 (Index 1979-81 = 100)
135
120
105
Value
90 Unit value
Quantity
75
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Source, FAO
101
BANGLADESH
VVith an estimated per caput GNP of $225 in 1992,
Bangladesh is among the poorest countries in the world.
Moreover, with approximately 115 million inhabitants
and 149 000 km2, the country is three times more
densely populated than India and seven times more than
China. This intense population pressure on a relatively
narrow resource base, together with the frequent natural
disasters suffered, present formidable challenges to
poverty alleviation efforts in Bangladesh.
Over the years, floods, droughts and cyclones have
undermined progress and hampered the country's efforts
to stimulate grovvth and reduce poverty. Cyclones and
resulting storm surges are particularly destructive. The
Bay of Bengal is the most cyclone-prone area in the
vvorld, having been hit by 15 cyclones during the past
25 years. These natural disasters cause immeasurable
human suffering, devastate large crop areas and destroy
!property and infrastructure. The government estimates
that the cyclone of April 1 991 killed approximately
140 000 people. Such disasters impede economic and
social progress by diverting attention and resources
away from development programmes and tovvards crisis
management.
Despite all these obstacles, Bangladesh has rnade
significant economic progress over the past decade. The
country has reduced external and internal deficits,
stabilized the inflation rate, promoted non-traditional
exports and achieved a modest growth rate. Stabilization
policies have helped lower the budget deficit from about
8 percent in 1990 to 5 percent in 1992. The inflation
rate fell to around 5 percent in 1992, the lowest rate in
more than ten years. Real GDP growth during the period
1990-92 has been in the range of 3.5 to 6.5 percent and
is forecast to be 5 percent in 1993.
Bangladesh has also initiated a number of structural
reforrns in the industrial and financial sectors, public
enterprises and trade and exchange rate policy.
Financial sector reforms include abolishing credit
ceilings and increasing reliance on cash and liquid asset
reserve requirements to regulate liquidity. Public
enterprises are being given more administrative and
managerial autonomy. Trade policy is shifting from
import substitution to export promotion; a tariff system
is replacing prohibitions and quantitative restrictions
on imports.
108
BOX 4
THE FISHERIES SECTOR IN BANGLADESH
Bangladesh is attempting to address many however, more public and private sector
of these environmental problems by im- investment is needed in harvesting,
proving public awareness, enforcing pollu- processing, marketing, extension, research,
tion regulations, strengthening training and community development. In
environmental impact assessments and addition, the sector requires improved
implementing measures to mitigate inputs, technology, credit, public agency
environmental damage to fisheries. coordination and policy analysis.
These and many other planned While there is much to be done, the
improvements can expand Bangladesh's fisheries sector could contribute much more
opportunities for both domestic and export to the country's social and economic
production. To meet this potential, development.
SRI LANKA
One of Sri Lanka's most striking features is its enduring
commitment to progressive social welfare policies. Even
before independence in 1948, Sri Lanka promoted three
major social policies: a food subsidy, an entirely free
education system and free universal health care. By the
1970s, Sri Lanka liad become a unique example of a
developing country capable of attaining a high level of
social welfare despite a very low average per caput
income. Today, the country ranks high among both
developed and developing countries in terms of a w'de
range of human development indicators. Sri Lanka's
citizens enjoy a long life expectancy, advanced health
standards and one of the highest literacy rates in
the world.
These impressive achievements in social and hurnan
development were not matched, however, by a similar
performance in economic growth. An expanding
population and a persistently sluggish economy kept per
caput incomes low. In addition, the country's inability to
generate budget and trade surpluses limited public and
private savings, resulting in a low rate of investment.
VVhile enlightened social policies were contributing
to human capital development, there was no
corresponding growth in capital formation necessary
to increase productivity and expand the economy.
Over time, high unemployment, high inflation,
balance of payments deficits and economic stagnat on
made it more and more difficult for successive
governments to pay for the country's food, health and
education programmes. In an attempt to compensate for
deteriorating economic conditions, policy-makers
gradually turned the economy inwards, pursuing an
industrialization-led development strategy based on
import-substitution policies. By the mid-1970s, the
government had nationalized the tea estates, established
strict controls on foreign exchange and foreign
investment and placed tight restrictions on both
domestic and international trade.
However, the innport-substitution policies failed to
generate enough growth in income and employment
and, in 1977, a new government introduced
fundamental changes to the country's economic policy.
Sri Lanka essentially reversed its economic development
strategy, shifting from an inward-looking, state-
controlled economy to an export- and market-oriented
116
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Overall economic activity in the Latin America and
Caribbean region rose by an estimated 2.3 percent in
1992, down from 3.1 percent in the previous year. The
slow-down in growth mainly reflected the depressed
economic situation in Brazil, where GDP declined by
1.5 percent in an economic environment dominated by
hyperinflation and pronounced fiscal and external
accoLmt imbalances. Excluding Brazil, the regional GDP
growth in 1992 was 4.3 percent (5 percent in 1991), still
a robust performance in the context of earlier trends and
especially in vievv of the depressed state of the OECD
economies. Several countries consolidated the
stabilization process and some appeared to have entered
a long-awaited recovery phase. Stabilization efforts in
some cases achieved spectacular reductions in inflation
rates: from 1 400 percent in 1 991 to 20 percent in 1992
in Nicaragua; and from 173 to 23 percent in Argentina.
In the external sector, an outstanding feature was the
reversal in the trade balance, which turned negative
in 1992 for the first time since the outbreak of the debt
crisis in the early 1980s. Indeed, imports rose to
$132 billion (19 percent higher than in 1991) while
exports reached $126.1 billion (only 4 percent higher
than in 1991). Although the negative trade balance to a
large extent reflected the huge trade deficit of Mexico,
other countries such as Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and
a number of Central American countries also recorded
significant trade deficits. While much of the increase
in imports was in consumption goods a typical
phenomenon in the early phases of economic opening
capital goods imports appear to have also expanded
significantly in recent years. The negative net trade
balance contributed to a widening in the current
account deficit, which represented nearly 19 percent of
the region's exports of goods and services compared
with about 11 percent in 1991.
A parallel and related process was a sharp increase in
capital inflows which more than covered the increase in
the current account deficit, allowing an expansion in
reserve holdings. This reflected to a large extent the
climate of renewed confidence in the region's economic
outlook.
123
Figure 9
15 100
Agricultural production
00 90 growth (%)
secala Agricultural production
15 80 index (1979-81=100)
Per caput food production
30 index (1979-81=100)
70
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Billion $
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
32
24
16
Exports
Imports
o
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Index
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
(Index 1979-81 = 100)
125
115
105
95
Value
85 Unit value
=== Quantity
75
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Index
AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS
(Index 1979-81 = 100)
110
100
90
80
Value
70 Unit value
Quantity
60
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 991
Source. FAO
124
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
Agricultural policies
The general nnarket-oriented policies now followed
throughout the region ernphasize a more neutral role of
the state as an economic agent. Nevertheless, general
tendencies in recent years have been for a broader and
more active government involvement in sectoral
policies. There are major differences between the
current schools of thought and those that determined
previous policies, however. The state has abandoned its
pervasive presence in agriculture and its top-down
approach in transferring subsidized resources. Rather,
current policies increasingly emphasize the objectives of
helping farmers to help themselves and promoting the
agrarian and institutional reforms required for this
purpose. Another leitmotif of recent policy statements is
integration at two general levels: i) within agriculture, in
126
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
BOX 5
DEBT AND EXTERNAL FINANCING IN LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
In 1992 the region's stock of external debt capital inflows, primarily from private
amounted to $447 billion, about 2 percent sources, which reflected the generally
above the previous year's level. Only four improved economic outlook, interest rate
countries, Argentina, the Dominican differentials and the catalytic effects of
Republic, Honduras and Paraguay, commercial debt-reduction agreements for
experienced a decline in their debt stock. many countries of the region. Private
The total debt service-to-exports ratio portfolio flows reached $15.3 billion in
was estimated to be 30.5 percent in 1992, 1992, four times the level of 1990. Net
a slight increase over the previous year. foreign direct investment amounted to
Total debt service on all debt paid by the $13.8 billion, the major recipients being
region was $54.5 billion in 1992 against Mexico ($6.2 billion), Argentina
$50.2 billion in 1991. ($2.5 billion) and Brazil ($2 billion).
Recent institutional developments
affecting debt include the Paris Club
agreement to restructure Argentina's and
Brazil's debt for a consolidated $13 billion.
This agreement provides for a graduated
amortization schedule for restructuring
debt so as to reduce the need for further
rescheduling. The Paris Club also agreed to
consolidate the debts of the Dominican
Republic and Ecuador under the Houston
terms.
Commercial bank debt and debt-service
reduction under the Brady Plan continued.
In December 1992, Argentina signed an
important agreement which should reduce
the country's $23 billion commercial debt
and $9 billion of interest arrears by an
equivalent of $11 billion, i.e. more than
one-third of its public debt. Another
important agreement, concluded by Brazil,
involves $44 billion of eligible bank debt
and provides for a parallel agreement to
convert 1991 and 1992 interest arrears
into bonds.
A development of major significance for
the region was the strong increase of net
130
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
MEXICO
Overview
The Mexican experience is an important reference in the
recent history of development. It was the Mexican
moratorium in 1982 that marked the beginning of the
debt crisis of the 1980s. Ten years later, Mexico was
again attracting worldwide interest, this time as a case-
study of bold market-oriented reform and remarkable
initial stabilization achievements. It still has a long way
to go to full recovery and many uncertainties cloud the
mid- and long-term horizon. Nevertheless, the economic
improvements achieved over the past three to four years
augur well for a consolidation of the stabilization
process. The recent decision by the world's major
industrial countries to allovv Mexico to join the OECD
is a manifestation of international confidence in the
country's prospects.32
At the basis of the recent improvements was a
package of policy measures, initiated in the late 1980s,
which introduced pervasive and, indeed, revolutionary
change. These measures included: a reduction of the
public sector's size and a redefinition of its economic
role; fiscal reform, involving tight discipline in public
expenditure; a shift towards free trade principles,
including unilateral trade liberalization and commitment
to NAFTA.
Agricultural liberalization, possibly the most radical
and far-reaching element of the reform package,
included the reduction of subsidies on agricultural
32The June 1993 OECD Ministe- product and factor prices; privatization of support
rial Council requested that the services; reform of the juridical status of the "ejidos"; 33
dialogue with Dynamic Non- and exposure to external competition.
Member Economies be deepened Agricultural performance is expected to improve as a
and that consideration be given result of the experience, since the opportunities and risks
to an extension of membership associated with market liberalization should enhance its
to include Argentina, Brazil, competitive efficiency. However, as in any revolution,
Chile and Mexico. Mexico has there will be winners and losers. The more competitive
long been involved in OECD sectors, particularly those producing fruit and
activities and the terms of condi- vegetables, will benefit from enhanced market
tions for its early membership opportunities, provided competitiveness is not
are now under examination. dampened by currency overvaluation. On the other
33 The "ejido" is a form of rural hand, the full enforcement of trade liberalization
communal association which measures and the country's likely adherence to NAFTA
gained importance after the vvill entail major risks for peasant and medium-sized
agrarian reform of 191 7 but has farmers who are responsible for the bulk of staple food
pre-Columbian roots. production. Exposure to external competition
131
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
Economic setting
The major policy reforms carried out since the late
1980s must be considered in the light of the critical
economic situation preceding their introduction. After
the crisis of 1982-83, when economic activity fell by a
cumulative 5 percent, a therapy of orthodox stabilization
measures permitted a period of mild recovery. However,
this improvement came to an abrupt halt in the mid-
1980s when a period of new shocks began: a disastrous
earthquake in late 1985 (vvith damages estimated to be 2
percent of GDP) and a collapse in oil prices caused the
GDP to fall by 4 percent in 1986. With growth
remaining weal< the following year, the economic and
financial situation sharply deteriorated.
By 1987 the fiscal deficit had increased to an
equivalent of 13 percent of GDP, inflation liad soared to
132 percent and debt-service obligations vvere absorbing
36 percent of total export earnings. Altogether, the
period 1983-1988 saw virtually no growth; during that
period public consumption rose by 1.6 percent annually,
private consumption stagnated and public investment
fell by an annual average of more than 11 percent.
Exports did expand faster than imports, thereby allowing
a trade surplus which rose as a share of GDP from 4.7
percent in 1982 to 8.7 percent in 1988; however, since
much of the surplus was absorbed by debt servicing,
current accounts failed to improve commensurately
indeed, the balance fell into the red for several years in
the 1980s and has worsened dramatically recently.
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
BOX 6
NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
In June 1990 the Presidents of Mexico and negotiate "side agreements" dealing with
the United States announced their decision environmental and labour issues in an
to start negotiations for a free trade attempt to allay concerns of the incoming
agreement between the two countries. Soon United States Administration and
afterwards, Canada expressed its wish to congressional critics.
join the negotiations, which took place from Under the agreement, both countries
May 1991 to August 1992. would convert all their agricultural non-
At the outset, an agreement text was tariff barriers either to tariff-rate quotas
issued for an expanded NAFTA, and this was (TRQs) or to ordinary tariffs. During a ten-
signed by the presidents of the three or 15-year transition period, depending on
countries on December 17, 1992. The text the commodity, no tariff would be charged
was then submitted for parliamentary for commodities within the TRQs. The
approval by the three countries. Should longer transition periods apply to certain
it be ratified the main question mark highly sensitive products, such as maize and
being the decision of the United States dry beans for Mexico and orange juice and
Congress NAFTA would enter into force sugar for the United States. Duties imposed
on 1 January 1994. on commodities exceeding the TRQs
The expanded NAFTA agreement contains initially set to replace the protection
separate bilateral undertakings between provided by the former non-tariff barriers
Mexico and its United States and Canadian would decline progressively to zero by the
trading partners. It also incorporates the end of the transition period. Existing tariffs
Canada-United States Free Trade on a broad range of agricultural products
Agreement, leaving intact those rules on would be eliminated immediately. Among
agricultural tariff and non-tariff barriers and the United States' major agricultural
transitional safeguards that went into effect exports which include feedgrains, oilseeds,
in 1989. Certain trilateral provisions deal meat and dairy products grains and
with domestic support and export subsidies. oilseeds were expected to benefit most. For
Mexico and the United States agreed to Mexico, whose leading exports to the
135
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
Agricultural reform
While the new policy orientation is having a profound
impact on all economic sectors, agriculture will be one
of the most affected. The liberalization of agricultural
markets has meant breaking with deep structural
rigidities and legislative norms dating fron-ithe early
decades of the century.
The broad orientations of the new policies were
defined in the National Programme for Rural
Modernization 1990-1994, issued in 1990. The
programme's general principles are that commercial
agriculture (smallholder) must assert itself as the sector
showing the most dynamic growth, while the "social"
sector (ejidos and farm communities) must modernize
through cooperative arrangements allowing economies
of scale, a redefinition of the state role in productive and
marketing activities and association contracts with
commercial agriculture and agro-industry.
The most far-reaching area of policy reform was in
land tenure legislation. The importance of changes in
this area must be appraised in a historical context.
Under the previous agrarian regime, regulated by Article
27 of the Mexican Constitution of 1917, the government
vvas expected to provide land to any group of citizens
requesting it. The objectives were to reduce the gross
inequities that characterized landownership at the time
and to alleviate rural poverty. Those granted land
entitlements entered the ejido system, whose
rnembership expanded to include a large majority of
Mexico's rural population. By 1988, the "social" sector
137
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LAT N AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
In 1992, the Near East's recover y from the Persian Gulf
conflict was well established. Petroleum export volume
increased, although prices declined during 1992 to pre-
conflict levels, benefiting oil-importing countries in the
region. Reconstruction activity helped energize the
region's economy, creating renewed opportunities for
migrant employment and raising remittance income.
Trade and tourism revenues also rebounded while
declining import demand, debt forgiveness and foreign
transfers including support provided by the Gulf Crisis
Financial Coordination Group to Egypt, the Syrian Arab
Republic and Turkey helped to improve current
account balances.
These positive developments have been clouded by
the continued political tensions in the region, however,
which have created disincentives for private investment
and slowed market reforms in some countries,
consequently harming long-term growth prospects.
Agricultural output increased in most countries in
1992. Good weather was the major determinant of
increased farm output in countries that have primarily
rain-fed agriculture, including Algeria, Cyprus, the
Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia and Turkey.
Drought in Morocco caused a sharp decline in its farm
output in 1992, with continued drought expected to
reduce the 1993 harvest. In Egypt, changing price
signals and a lifting of planting controls have resulted in
a substantial shift in crop mix since 1986. Wheat area
has increased and, combined with the widespread
adoption of HYVs, contributed to Egypt's sixth
consecutive record crop of wheat in 1992.
Regional agricultural production rose by 40 percent
between 1 979-8 1 and 1992. Growth in output has
generally enabled regional food production to keep pace
with population growth, except in cases of weather-
induced shortfalls. Country performances vary: most of
the major agricultural producers have achieved
substantial gains in per caput food production since
1979-81, including Algeria, Egypt, the Islamic Republic
of Iran, Morocco and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The regional agricultural import volume rose by 40
percent between 1979-81 and 1991, but declining
146
Figure 70
6 100
4 80
2 60 Agricultural production
growth (%)
o 40 Agricultural production
index (1979-81=100)
-2 20
Per caput food production
-4 o
index (1979-81=100)
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Billion $
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
25
20
15
10
5 Exports
Imports
o
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Index
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
(Index 1979-81 = 100)
210
180
150
120
Value
90 Unit value
Quantity
60
Index 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS
175 (Index 1979-81 = 100)
150
125
100
Value
75 Unit value
50
= Quantity
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Source: FAO
147
NEAR EAST
AND NORTH AFRICA
Policy developments
Regional economic and agricultural performance in
1992 has occurred in the context of nearly a decade of
profound policy change. Many countries in the region,
including Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, the Libyan Arab
Jamahiriya, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, the Sudan and
Yemen, initiated major policy reform programmes during
the 1980s to transform themselves from inward-oriented
economies, with extensive government intervention, into
more market-oriented economies based on outward-
oriented growth. Generally, policy reforms were initiated
to deal with the economic crises which unfolded during
the 1980s and were reflected in large current and fiscal
account deficits, unsustainable foreign debt obligations,
inflation and high unemployment. The tvvo prongs
of their reform programmes were the short-term
stabilization of deficits through austerity policies, and
long-term economic restructuring. Long-term strategies
included reduced or eliminated price distortions, the
liberalization of trade and foreign exchange markets and
institutional reforms.
Policy reforms have helped stimulate economic
activity in these countries, as trade and domestic
markets have become more open, thus leading to greater
competitiveness and economic growth. Turkey, for
example, was the first in the region to implement a
comprehensive structural adjustment programme, which
it initiated in 1980. The programme contributed to
accelerated growth in GDP, averaging 5.1 percent
annually during the period 1980-1990. More recently,
Iran has recorded impressive economic growth,
averaging 9 percent during 1990-91. Since the end of
the Iran-Iraq war, Iran has moved to revitalize and
liberalize its economy, removing most of the wartime
controls on its economy.
Agricultural and food policies in the region differ
widely. Most of the countries that have implemented
148
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EGYPT
Agriculture's role in the economy
Egypt has targeted agriculture, along with tourism and
industry, as a sector with strong potential for supporting
economy-wide growth under the economic reform and
structural adjustment programme (ERSAP) adopted in
March of 1990. This is a comprehensive policy reform
effort designed to correct structural weaknesses of the
economy and achieve macroeconomic stability. Under
the ERSAP, Egypt's objective is to restructure economic
activity to achieve a decentralized, market-based and
outvvard-oriented economy. This marks a complete
break with the centrally planned, inward-oriented
economic policies that the country has pursued for more
than four decades.
Several factors account for the expectation that
agriculture can help support economy-wide reform and
stabilization. First, the share of agriculture in the
Egyptian economy, vvhile declining, continues to be
important. In 1990, agriculture accounted for 17 percent
of Egypt's GDP, 41 percent of employment and 20
percent of its export earnings.
Second, the farm sector has potential for additional
gains in productivity. Egyptian farmers are already
among the most productive in the world, aided by good
soils and a mild clirnate that permits three crops per
year. Further productivity gains are expected to come
frorn increased yields in some crops, efficiency gains
from crop substitution as remaining price distortions are
removed and better management of limited water
resources.
Third, the agricultural sector has already achieved
considerable progress in implementing rnarket
liberalization. Major policy initiatives undertaken since
1986 have removed most sectoral price distortions in
agriculture, exposed Egyptian farmers to decision-
making in a competitive market and achieved a role
for the private sector.
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of the 1980s when oil prices and export earnings fell but
Egyptian policies did not adjust to the decline in
resources. Continued large government expenditures on
food and energy subsidies as well as on support of
public sector enterprises helped generate massive fiscal
deficits which exceeded 20 percent of GNP annually.
Egypt financed its fiscal and current account deficits
partly through foreign borrowing, but capital inflows
slowed as Egypt's creditworthiness deteriorated and
foreign arrears began to accumulate. By 1990, Egypt's
total foreign debt had reached $51 billion, equivalent to
144 percent of GDP, with repayment obligations equal
to one-half of its export earnings. An expansionary
monetary policy was also used to help fund the fiscal
deficits and consequently contributed to high inflation.
In response to the deterioration in the Egyptian
economy, the government initiated the ERSAP in March
of 1990. The three broad principles of an ERSAP are:
the rapid achievement of a sustainable
macroeconomic environment;
econ om i c restructuring to lay the foundation for
medium- and long-ternlgrowth;
improvements in social policies to minimize the
negative effects of economic reforms on the poor.
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Irrigation development
Within agriculture, irrigation development is the major
area for public investment and spending. Over the past
ten years, some 60 to 75 percent of the entire
agricultural budget has been invested in irrigation.
Several factors explain this focus. First, while the
irrigated area comprises only 15 percent of the
cultivated land, it produces over 50 percent of the total
value of agricultural production. All cotton, sugar beet,
tobacco and sesame crops are produced exclusively
under irrigation. Cotton and textile products account for
25 percent of total exports and more than 50 percent of
all non-oil exports. In recent years, fruits, vegetables and
vvheat have been brought increasingly under irrigation.
The second reason for focusing on irrigation
development is that production on rain-fed area, which
represents 85 percent of the total area, varies greatly
from year to year. Since 1988, annual production has
fluctuated by 35 percent on average. While good rainfall
years mean lower agricultural imports, a drought year
entails substantial food and animal feed imports.
Syrian public investment in irrigation focuses primarily
on relatively large projects, particularly those in the
Euphrates River loasin. Public sector projects provide
water to private farms, state farms and tenant farmers on
state lands. The private irrigation sector includes farmers
who drill wells to extract groundwater and pump water
from lakes, rivers and springs.
Available data suggest that around 1.25 million ha are
potentially irrigable from surface water. In 1992, the
total irrigated area from surface water and groundwater
was approximately 900 000 ha. Farmers irrigated
415 000 ha from vvells in 1991.
The Euphrates River, whose waters are shared by
Turkey, the Syrian Arab Republic and Iraq, is the
country's principal source of irrigation water and, while
Syrian water development projects have been designed
to irrigate about 650 000 ha in the Euphrates River
165
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REGIONAL REVIEW
Developed country regions
ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION
The year 1992 saw further contractions in overall output
in the transition economies of Central and Eastern
Europe. However, there were significant variations in
economic performance between countries, largely
reflecting differences in the pace and stage of their
economic reform process.
According to the IMF,39 real GDP in the Central
European countries40 in 1992 declined by 7.5 percent,
following a 13.5 percent fall in 1991. Forecasts point to
a further 1.5 percent decline in GDP in 1993 and a
resumption of positive growth from 1994, initially at a
rate of 2.6 percent. Within this average, individual
country positions differ markedly, however. On the one
hand, former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland are
already showing signs of economic recovery, although
the breakup of highly economically integrated
Czechoslovakia into two independent states, the Czech
Republic and Slovakia, has created additional
uncertainty. On the other hand, economic activity in
Bulgaria and Romania continued to decline significantly
in 1992, although at a slower rate than the previous
year. The civil strife in former Yugoslavia, SFR, a source
of immeasurable human suffering, is at the same time
39IMF. World Economic Outlook, seriously disrupting the local economy and negatively
April 1993. affecting the economies of neighbouring countries,
4 Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech especially Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. The first of
Republic, Hungary, Poland, these is particularly vulnerable to destabilizing
Romania, Slovakia and former influences since it only recently initiated economic
Yugoslavia, SFR. reforms.
1 69
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TABLE 5
CENTRAL EUROPE
Crops 110.3 112.5 106.1 103.8 83.9
Livestock 103.7 102.5 104.0 95.6 90.0
Agriculture 108.9 110.0 106.5 102.6 90.6
FORMER USSR
Crops 111.1 114.5 116.7 94.2 104.8
Livestock 118.6 125.6 125.8 116.9 101.7
Agricultu e 116.4 120.6 120.2 105.1 100.6
Note:1979-81.= 00.
Source: FAO.
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BULGARIA
The agricultural sector
Agriculture is a moderately important sector of the
Bulgarian economy. It accounts for about 12 percent
of GDP and employs 17 percent of the labour force.
Agricultural and food products account for about 20
percent of exports and 7 percent of imports. Major
crop products are grains (mainly wheat and corn),
sunflowerseed, tobacco, fruit (apples, grapes, peaches,
plums, cherries and others) and vegetables (tomatoes,
peppers, onions, potatoes, cucumbers). Major livestock
products are pork, dairy products mainly cheese and
yoghurt and wool.
Throughout its history, Bulgaria has been a net
exporter of agricultural products. In a typical year, it
exports wheat, tobacco, sunflower oil, fresh and
processed fruits and vegetables, wine and livestock
products. It imports oilseed meal, cotton and, in some
years, maize. However, during the communist period,
about 80 percent of Bulgaria's exports went to the
former CMEA countries, with some 70 percent going to
the former USSR. These export markets have all but
collapsed with the dissolution of CMEA trading
arrangements and the breakup of the USSR.
Under communism, almost 99 percent of Bulgaria's
agricultural land was organized into state and
cooperative farms. In theory, state farms were state-
ovvned enterprises and the workers had the status of
employees vvorking for fixed wages, while workers on
cooperative farms vvere members and shared in the
profits of the farm. Hovvever, the distinction became
blurred as the farm structure was reorganized several
times over the 40 years of communist rule. During the
1970s the state and cooperative farms were consolidated
into huge agro-industrial complexes averaging 24 000
ha in size. I3eginning in 1986, these were broken up into
smaller units and, during the final years of the
communist regime, the agro-industrial complexes were
dissolved and the original cooperative farms were
reconstituted. The other type of farm organization is the
state-owned hog and poultry complexes.
The private sector consisted of plots, usually 0.5 ha in
size, which were allotted to cooperative farm members
for personal cultivation. Such plots accounted for about
16 percent of arable land. However, the private sector
accounted for about 25 percent of total gross output and
173
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Policy reforrn
Retail prices. The government removed most retail price
controls in February 1 991 but began a system of
"monitoring" the prices of 14 basic food items. These
included flour, bread, four types of meat, certain
sausages and other processed meats, vegetable oil
and sugar.
In August 1991, the system of price monitoring was
transforrned into retail price controls. Projected prices
for the 14 food items were set to cover costs and a
"normative" profit margin was established at 12 percent
for processors and 3 percent for retailers. In April 1992,
the list of monitored foods was reduced to six: bread,
flour, milk, yoghurt, white cheese and fresh meat. The
projected prices vvere raised at the same time.
Producer prices. Most producer prices were also
liberalized in February 1 991 . However, prices of wheat,
pork, poultry meat, calves and milk have continued to
be under some form of control. In 1991, with a view to
monitoring prices, projected prices for these
commodities were established, covering costs plus a
20 percent normative profit. In April 1992, this was
replaced with a system of minimum prices for the
same products. In theory, both state-owned and
private purchasing companies were required to pay
these minimum prices to producers. However, these
prices vvere not so rigorously enforced in the case of
private firms.
Even the minimu 11 prices established in 1992 are well
below world levels and the fact that average 1992
procurement prices were very close to the minimum
prices suggests that these are in fact being treated as
price ceilings. Furthermore, average 1992 prices of
uncontrolled commodities such as maize and barley are
also well below world prices. Some of the reasons for
these low prices are:
oThe monopsonistic structure of the state-owned
purchasing and processing enterprises. These are
technologically inefficient with high costs but, in the
absence of competition, they have no incentive to
174
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ROMANIA
The agricultural sector
Agriculture accounted for 19 percent of Romania s
in 1991 and employed 29 percent of the workforce. By
far the most important crops grown in Romania are
cereals, with wheat and maize covering about one-third
of the country's arable land. During the period 1986-90,
wheat production averaged 7.3 million tonnes while
maize production averaged 9.8 million tonnes. Other
important crops are oilseeds: sunflowerseed production
averaged 700 000 tonnes during 1986-90 vvhile soybean
production was typically around 300 000 tonnes per
year. The country's most important livestock product
is pork.
Romania was for some time a significant net
agricultural exporter, exporting significant amounts of
wheat and, in sorne years, maize. Other major exports
have been livestock products, sunflower oil, fruit and
vegetables. Throughout most of the communist period,
Romania imported large amounts of soybean and, in
some years, maize. However, during the final years of
communist rule, the Romanian Government's drive to
eliminate the country's foreign debt led to greatly
reduced imports of feedstuffs and the vigorous
promotion of agricultural exports. The result was
severe domestic shortages of most basic foods.
During the communist period, Romania's farm
structure vvas dominated by state and cooperative farms.
State farms, averaging 5 000 ha, covered 20 percent of
agricultural land and 16 percent of arable land. These
were state-ovvned enterprises in which the \workers had
the status of ernployees. Cooperative farms averaged
2 000 ha. VVorkers on cooperatives had the status of
"members" rather than employees and their income was
theoretically linked to the cooperative's performance. In
practice, there was little difference in the operation and
management of these two types of farm. However,
privatization of the tvvo types of organization is
proceeding in different ways.
There was a significant private sector during the
cornmunist period, however. About 9 percent of the
agricultural land continued to be privately owned,
although this land was mainly in mountainous regions
that were unsuitable for large-scale collectivized
agriculture. Another 8 percent of the land was in 0.5 ha
plots allotted to cooperative farm members for their
182
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Policy reform
Compared with other transitional countries in Central
Europe, the Romanian reform process has been
characterized by a high degree of gradualism and
caution in an atternpt to protect the population and limit
the recessionary impact of the structural reforms.
Retail prices. A first round of liberalization took place
in November 1990, when price controls were removed
for all but a list of 22 essential items whose prices were
fixed by the governrnent and subject to subsidies. Thus,
staple foods, together with energy and communications,
ernained under a price control system. In a series of
steps during 1991 and 1992, administrative price
ceilings were raised, food subsidies paid to processors to
cover losses incurred through retail price ceilings were
cut and the number of products subject to price ceilings
was reduced. From September 1992, formal price
ceilings persisted only for bread, butter, milk and milk
powder. On 1 May 1993, the remaining formal retail
price ceilings were lifted, leading to a more than fourfold
increase in bread prices. Yet food subsidies remain for
beef, pork, poultry and milk. These subsidies are paid to
state-owned processors who respect the government-
established minimum farmgate prices.
Producer prices. Prices in peasant markets were freed
soon after the 1989 revolution, but the government has
set minimum prices for basic commodities to be paid by
all state-owned purchasing enterprises. These prices
have been raised a number of times but, in general, have
not risen as fast as the rate of inflation. From 1 May
1993, minimum prices remained in force for wheat,
maize, pork, beef, poultry and milk. The continued de
facto monopoly power of the state purchasing
enterprises tends to keep prices close to the minimum
levels. Privatization has been slow in the downstream
sector and producers still have very few alternatives to
selling to state purchasing agencies. The low profit
margins of the state-ovvned companies and their
preferential access to state subsidies allows them to
advance inputs and financing to farmers in exchange for
forward purchasing contracts; however, this has resulted
in de facto barriers to the entry of new private agents in
agricultural supply and marketing.
183
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Agricultural policies
Agrarian reform is generally perceived to be a
prerequisite for enhancing growth of agricultural
production, balancing demand and supply, raising
nutrition standards and improving the performance of
downstream activities linked to agriculture.
The conceptual and operational implications of reform
are loosely defined by such slogans as restructuring,
marketization and plurality of socio-economic
192
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OVERVIEW
The OECD countries' policy actions in agricultural trade
and the macroeconomy affect the vvelfare of the
developing countries often as much as or more than
these countries' own policies. The combined
macroeconomic policies of the developed countries
have a heavy influence on the global economic growth
and inflation rates, interest rates, exchange rate structure
and, therefore, the levels of trade and capital flows
among countries. The domestic agricultural and
agricultural trade policies of the developed countries
also strongly influence the vvell-being of developing
countries' agricultural sectors and rural communities.
For these i easons, The State of Food and Agriculture
reports each year on changes in the world economic
environment in its World review, and on changes in the
agricultural and trade policies of OECD countries in its
Regional review.
The State of Food and Agriculture 1993 highlights
some of the likely impacts of the reform of the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Economic
Community (EEC), having reported on the CAP reform
measures in 1992. With a new administration and
agricultural legislation (which expires in 1995) in the
United States, the relevant section raises some of the
rnajor issues and likely options that vvill be considered in
adjusting United States agricultural policy to changing
realities. Finally, as the world's largest net importer of
agricultural products, Japan has announced a sweeping
agricultural policy reform package. The section on Japan
highlights the changes taking place in the country's
agricultural sector, both as pait of and apart from the
announced reforms.
200
OECD COUNTRIES
UNITED STATES
The budget deficit and its impact on agricultural policy
A new administration, committed to increased economic
growth and a phasing out of the budget deficit has taken
over in Washington, DC. The major preoccupation has
been how the new austerity programmes to reduce the
budget deficit will affect different societal and economic
groups, including agriculture. The changes and shifts in
direction of agricultural policy that are likely to occur
over the next several years are important to United
States agriculture but they are no less important to the
global community, since that country's agriculture plays
a predominant role in the global agricultural arena.
Following is a brief analysis of the general consequences
of possible changes in United States agricultural policy
in the conning months and years.
A desire to reduce the government's budgetary deficit
has led the United States adnninistration to propose a
package of measures to Congress, ainned primarily at
cutting governrnent expenditures and increasing
revenues. Some of the measures would modify existing
agricultural programmes, while other more general
actions, such as those proposed in the area of tax policy,
would affect agriculture as part of the overall economy.
The adnninistration proposed phasing in the agricultural
reforms fronn FY 1994 to 1997 and requested legislation
to make some of the changes immediately while leaving
others until the 1995 farm bill.
The administration's agricultural proposals represent
an adjustnnent of programme mechanisms rather than a
fundamental change in the form of farm programmes.
Even the measures proposed for inclusion in the 1995
farm bill do not imply a radical change in structure,
although they conceivably could pronnpt consideration
of more fundamental reforms. Under the current
proposals, the target price/deficiency payment
mechanism for supporting farm inconnes remains in
place, as do the loan rate and production control
mechanisnns for supporting prices. The administration
explicitly ruled out an early reduction in export subsidies
on the grounds that it would not be appropriate to
"disarm" unilaterally before the issue was resolved in
GATT's stalled MTNs.
The two changes that would have the greatest
budgetary and programme impact, and which would
become effective for 1996 crops, are: an increase in the
201
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
Farm production
Farm production will be affected by the various changes
in the market regimes as well as by some of the
accompanying measures such as the afforestation and
207
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
JAPAN
An agriculture in transition
For the past couple of decades Japanese agriculture has
been undergoing a quiet revolution and the forces of
change, both internal and external, have been
intensifying. In recognition of this mounting pressure, in
May 1 991 the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries set up a task force to develop new basic policy
directions to meet the changing situation and challenges
in the food and agricultural sector and in rural areas. In
June 1992, the ministry issued the task force's report,
The Basic Direction of New Policies for Food,
Agriculture and Rural Areas, which it then adopted as its
future policy guidelines, submitting several bills and
budgetary proposals to the 1993 session of the Diet.
This section of The State of Food and Agriculture 1993
reports on the current situation of Japanese agriculture,
the forces being exerted both for and against change and
the problems that rnust be faced and overcome as
Japanese agriculture is further integrated into the
international trade and economic system leading up to
the twenty-first century.
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
OECD COUNTRIES
BOX 7
GLOSSARY: WATER TERMS
Waterlogging
and salinization
Unproductive soil conditions
that occur when the water
table is very near the surface.
Waterlogging is caused by
overwatering and a lack of
proper drainage. Salinity is
caused by a combination of
poor drainage and high
evaporation rates that
concentrate salts on irrigated
land.
230
areas, new regulations require farmers many irrigation projects has been
to pay for polluting streams, lakes and disappointing because of poor scheme
aquifers. conception, inadequate construction
The irony is that irrigated agriculture and implementation or ineffective
is expected to produce much more in management. The mediocre
the future while using less water than it performance of the irrigation sector
uses today. At present, 2.4 billion is also contributing to many socio-
people depend on irrigated agriculture economic and environmental
for jobs, food and income (some 55 problems, but these problems are
percent of all wheat and rice output is neither inherent in the technology nor
irrigated). Over the next 30 years, an inevitable, as is sometimes argued.
estimated 80 percent of the additional Irrigation projects can contribute
food supplies required to feed the greatly to increased incomes and
world will depend on irrigation.6 agricultural production compared with
These developments are placing rain-fed agriculture. In addition,
enormous pressure on agricultural irrigation is more reliable and allows
policy-makers and farmers. Throughout for a wider and more diversified choice
the world, governments assume the of cropping patterns as well as the
prime responsibility for ensuring food production of higher-value crops.
security and, because food depends Irrigation's contribution to food
increasingly on irrigation, food security security in China, Egypt, India,
is closely linked with water security. Morocco and Pakistan is widely
Between 30 and 40 percent of the recognized. For example, in India, 55
world's food comes from the irrigated percent of agricultural output is from
16 percent of the total cultivated land; irrigated land. Moreover, average farm
around one-fifth of the total value of incomes have increased from 80 to
fish production comes from freshwater 100 percent as a result of irrigation,
aquaculture; and current global while yields have doubled compared
livestock drinking-water requirements with those achieved under the former
are 60 billion litres per day (forecasts rain-fed conditions; incremental labour
estimate an increase of 0.4 billion litres days used per hectare have increased
per year). Food security in the next by 50 to 100 percent. In Mexico, half
century will be closely allied to the value of agriculture production and
success in irrigation. two-thirds of the value of agricultural
Irrigation can help make yield- exports is from the one-third of arable
increasing innovations a more land that is irrigated.
attractive investment proposition but it Irrigation is a key component of the
does not guarantee crop yield technical package needed to achieve
increases. The overall performance of productivity gains. In the future, as
high levels of costly inputs are added
to cropland to sustain yield increases,
6 International Irrigation Management Institute. the security and efficiency of irrigated
1992. Developing environmentally sound and production will become even more
lasting improvements in irrigation important to world farming. Water will
management: the role of international research. no longer be plentiful and cheap. It
Colombo, Sri Lanka, IIMI. will be scarce, expensive to develop
234
Rain cloud
\N
Evaporation
while falling Cloud formation
11.
Surfac
ithoo Evaporatton
River
- Capillary fringe. i ...-
4ZaMatwAyezzumfatavemeurzfavkam or lake
if: Water table ..... orrazaftts
. . .
.
_....i pvercelaitioni ..
Fresh
groundwater
-,v,
, \\ V., -..,,7If,,/,',Q
....(Iti!
---.'-;'. ' ' ,'\
: 1 / -, `i/ n / 1-ivi t
7.,./: :vaateltr',
S ..
Ocean
,,, Confining /
i
,.\ ..., 1 71 \ '',..a /...' /..4.'"?'7:,> 't ' 1' ( \ 1 1,.' ' ''' ' ' \' ' ./" \ i l' ' ' ' '
7 S. Poste!. 1992. Last oasis: facing water 9 T.F. Homer-Dixon, J.H. Boutwell and G.W.
scarcity. New York, Norton. Rathjens. 1993. Environmental change and
'See footnote 1, p. 230. violent conflict. Sci. Am. (February).
237
TABLE 6
'000m3
Source: N.B. Ayibotele. 1992. The world's water: assessing the resource. Keynote paper at the ICWE, Dublin, Ireland.
TABLE 7 TABLE 8
Figure 11
5 000 !
Asia
4 500
71 Africa
Europe 4 000
Latin Amenca
3 500
North America
3 000
, ; 2 500
' 2 000
1 500
11_'
1 000
500
O
Figure 12
5 000
Agriculture
4 5001
Industry
Municipal supply 4000'
Reservoirs
3 5001
3 0001
, 2 500'
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
Source: LA. Shiklomanov. 1990. Global water resources. Note: Consumption by reservoirs
Nat Resour., 26: 34-43 is through evaporation
240
two years; or 100 luxury hotel guests Health officials identify five
for 55 days categories of disease related to water:
Industry requires large amounts of i) water-borne diseases (typhoid,
water, but most of it is recycled back cholera, dysentery, gastroenteritis and
into the water system. The major infectious hepatitis); ii) water-washed
problem is that much of this water is infections of the skin and eyes
returned polluted with wastes, (trachoma, scabies, yaws, leprosy,
chemicals and heavy metals. Over conjunctivitis and ulcers); iii) water-
85 percent of total withdrawals by based diseases (schistosomiasis and
industry are recycled as waste water.13 guinea-worm); iv) diseases from water-
Domestic water demand is moderate related insect vectors such as
in comparison with agriculture and mosquitoes and blackflies; and
industry but its quality requirements v) infections caused by defective
are high. Domestic and municipal sanitation (hookworm).
water uses include drinking, washing, The World Bank's World
food preparation and sanitation. Development Report 1992 estimates
that providing access to safe water and
Water and health adequate sanitation could result in two
Two of the most troubling domestic million fewer deaths from diarrhoea
water supply issues for policy-makers among young children and 200 million
are access and health. Nearly one fewer episodes of diarrhoeal illnesses
billion people in the world are without each year.
clean drinking-water. Providing easier
access to safe drinking-water Water as a strategic resource
significantly improves health Water, even when plentiful, is
conditions. Personal hygiene increases frequently drawn into the realm of
when water availability rises above 50 politics. Domestic laws and well-
litres per day (which generally means established customs can help resolve
that it must be delivered to the house water-related disputes at national and
or yard). An estimated 1.7 billion village levels but international law has
persons contend with inadequate not developed fast enough to deal with
sanitation facilities. The lack of sewage the growing number of water-related
collection and treatment is a major conflicts between many countries and
source of surface and groundwater regions. In 1989, Egypt's then Minister
pollution. of State for Foreign Affairs, Boutros-
Ghali, declared: "The national security
of Egypt is in the hands of the eight
121. Carruthers and C. Clark. 1983. The other African countries in the Nile
economics of irrigation. Liverpool, Liverpool basin."14 As Postel notes, Boutros-
University Press. Ghali highlights the importance of
13 D.B. Gupta. 1992. The importance of water water to Egypt's economy as well as
resources for urban socioeconomic the advantage upstream countries have
development. In International Conference on over downstream neighbours.
Water and the Environment: Development
Issues for the 21st Century. Keynote Papers.
Dublin, Ireland. 14 See footnote 7, p. 236.
245
The increasing value of water, risk points for disputes. The future of
concern about water quality and the Jordan waters is already an integral
quantity, and problems of access and component of regional peace talks
denial have given rise to the concept of and illustrates how complicated
resource geopolitics or "hydropolitics". hydropolitics can be. The fact that
In this context, water joins petroleum groundwater resources are also
and certain minerals as a strategic involved in the talks adds another
resource. Its increasing scarcity and dimension of difficulty.
value will only intensify the prevalence
of water politics and relevant
international conflicts.
Several countries depend heavily on
river flows from other countries.
Botswana, Bulgaria, Cambodia, the
Congo, Egypt, the Gambia, Hungary,
Luxembourg, Mauritania, the
Netherlands, Romania, the Sudan and
the Syrian Arab Republic all receive
over 75 percent of their available water
supplies from the river flows of
upstream neighbours. More than 40
percent of the world's population lives
in river basins that are shared by more
than one country.
Along with land and energy sources,
water has been the focus of disputes
and, in extreme cases, even wars. The
division of the Indus waters and its
tributaries among India and Pakistan
provided a salutary warning example.
War was only just avoided in the early
years of independence by a binding
agreement, backed by massive
international aid, to build two huge
water storage dams and a system of
canals. Water could then be
channelled to the areas of Pakistan that
were deprived of water when some of
the Indus tributaries were diverted into
Indian territory.
The costs to all parties of this
settlement vvere high but certainly less
than the human and financial costs of
a conflict. Many other international
rivers, including the Nile, Euphrates,
Ganges and Mekong, are prospective
246
BOX 1 0
THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WATER AND
THE ENVIRONMENT: DEVELOPMENT ISSUES FOR THE TIST CENTURY
BOX 11
FRAGMENTED PLANNING AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN INDIA
The World Bank's water throughout the year, productive delta areas of
resources management concentrating benefits and irrigation water. While the
policy paper presents several adding to evaporation losses. rights of downstream
examples from southern The more extensive lower irrigators are recognized in
India to illustrate the kinds areas have reverted to the dam operating rules,
of problem caused by uncertain rain-fed most of the regulated flow is
fragmented decision-making. cultivation, and total diverted upstream; water
The Chittur River's highly agricultural value added has losses have greatly increased
variable flows have decreased. Construction of in the wide sandy bed and no
traditionally been diverted the storage dam without surface water has reached
at many points into small adequate consideration of the sea for 20 or more years.
reservoirs to irrigate the downstream users or the Continued spills in about 50
main rice crop. The existing storage capacity of percent of all years were
diversion channels are large the basin is one example of used to justify the
enough to accommodate how individual project subsequent construction of
flood flows following the development in isolation can the right bank command,
monsoon rains. Thus, when a cause significant economic further aggravating
storage dam was losses. shortages in the delta and
constructed, the uppermost The construction of the leading to continual conflicts
channel was able to absorb Sathanur Dam on the between the two Sathanur
virtually all the regulated Ponnani River in Tamil Nadu commands. Meanwhile,
flow. The upper tanks now to serve a left bank additional storage dams on
tend to remain full command area deprived upstream tributaries are
one part of the system alters the Certain human actions at local levels
resource base and affects water users may contribute to climate change, with
in other parts. long-term implications for the
Dams built in one country frequently hydrological system worldwide.
reduce river flows to downstream Water policies, laws, projects,
countries for years afterwards, thereby regulations and administrative actions
affecting hydroelectric and irrigation often overlook these linkages.
capacity. When a city overpumps a Governments generally tend to
groundwater supply, streamflows may organize and administer water sector
be reduced in surrounding areas; when activities separately: one department is
it contaminates its surface water, it can in charge of irrigation; another
pollute groundwater supplies as well. oversees water supply and sanitation; a
250
BOX 12
ECONOMIC POLICIES AND WATER USE IN THE SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC
are subsidized. The stable production and decisions to dig wells and
government also establishes greater profit. Since water is expand irrigation. For
purchase prices and buys free, the only investment example, as incomes in
industrial crops, major expense required is the well urban areas increase,
cereals and feedgrains; e.g. and the pumping gear a consumers are demanding
the 1992 domestic wheat one-time fixed cost. Farmers more fruit and vegetables. At
price was almost twice the obtain subsidized credit to the same time, recent
international price. purchase subsidized fuel for changes in trade and
These policies are operating imported pumps exchange rate policies are
contributing to the purchased with overvalued making Syrian agricultural
proliferation of wells in the currency (an implicit products more competitive
Syrian Arab Republic. subsidy). With these in regional markets. Farmers
Digging wells to pump economic opportunities, who inititally planned only
groundwater accounts for most farmers want to dig on supplementary irrigation
80 percent of the newly wells or pump surface water. for winter wheat are finding
irrigated land since 1987. Other current economic summer vegetables and
With irrigation, farmers pressures are also irrigated fruit production
obtain higher yields, more influencing farmers' increasingly profitable.
other sectors such as livestock and open trade, fiscal austerity and a
forestry. phasing out of producer and consumer
With the continuing importance of subsidies (input and product markets).
structural adjustment and stabilization Budget-reducing measures imply
programmes, many developing increased competition between and
countries are implementing within sectors for funding new water
fundamental changes in projects. In these situations, the overall
macroeconomic and sectoral polices. economic, social and environmental
Typical adjustment programmes call implications of choices must be
for a greater reliance on markets, more carefully addressed. For example,
256
24 D.W. Brom ley, D.C. Taylor and D.E. Parker. 25 K.E. Boulding. 1980. The implications of
1980. Water reform and economic improved water allocation policy. In M.
development: institutional aspects of water Duncan, ed. Western water resources: coming
management in the developing countries. problems and policy alternatives. Boulder,
Econ. Dev. Cult. Change, 28(2). Colorado, Westview.
257
BOX 13
CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE
policy reforms for all other sectors inevitably affecting the scope and
since the early 1980s, the dominant efficiency of agricultural support
supporting actions for agriculture have services. In most countries, there is a
been non-price policies. For non- pressing need to discuss how various
agricultural sectors, the new policy mix policy options, including both public
includes minimizing state involvement interventions and market-oriented,
in the pricing and marketing of inputs private sector activities, may assist the
and outputs, privatization and limiting irrigation sector in the process of
government borrowing. economic reform.
Despite the irrigation sector's often Section III reviews the advantages
being sheltered or even benefiting from and disadvantages of some of these
the effects of these economic policy policy measures for surface water,
reforms, government subsidy cuts are groundwater and water quality.
266
ENCADR 15
MODLE DE RPARTITION DE L'EAU ET DE CONTROLE DE LA POLLUTION
DANS UNE PERSPECTIVE DE SERVICE PUBLIC
Le modle franais de rparti- permettent aussi de constituer rit discrtionnaire d'une ad-
tion de l'eau peut tre qualifi un fond d'encouragement un ministration centrale que sur
de systme de distribution de meilleur usage de l'eau par l'oc- les choix et les initiatives d'en-
service public. L'administration troi de subventions ou de prts tit& prives. Par exemple, les
se compose de six comits de des conditions favorables. Les redevances sont fixes sur la
bassin et de six agences finan- comits de bassin sont compo- base de soumissions et d'offres
cires de bassin qui contreolent ss de reprsentants des col- faites par les usagers, sans tenir
le captage, le traitement et le lectivits nationales, rgiona- compte des facteurs de raret.
transport de l'eau. Les comits les, et locales, ainsi que de per-
de bassin sont le lieu de ngo- sonnalits reprsentant l'indus-
ciation et de dfmition des po- trie, l'agriculture et les villes.
litiques concernant la gestion Toute entit qui puise de l'eau
de l'eau l'chelle du bassin. indpendamment de Pautorit
Les agences financires fondent administrative (A l'exception
leurs plans d'action sur une base des petites units) doit mesurer
tendue de donnes hydrologi- sa consommation et la payer.
ques (besoins qualitatifs et Les tarifs sont fonction de la
quantitatifs), et sont les centres source (eau superficielle ou eau
de connaissance et d'expertise souterraine) et de la valeur re-
technique qui ont pour interlo- lative de l'eau dans un bassin
cuteurs les pouvoirs publics et donn. L'approche se fonde
les autres usagers de l'eau. Les aussi sur le principe pollueur
agences de bassin peroivent payeur. Si l'assimilation de la
les redevances, accordent sub- pollution est reconnue comme
ventions et prts, laborent des usage lgitime de l'eau, Pentit
plans long terme, recueillent qui occasionne une pollution
et analysent les donnes relati- doit prendre en charge les coats
ves l'eau, effectuent des tu- de dpollution et doit assurer la
des et financent la recherche. compensation de tous domma-
Les comits de bassin ap- ges ventuels. Le systme est
prouvent des plans d'amnage- autofinanc, et donne de bons
ment sur 20 ou 25 ans et, tous rsultats depuis 25 ans.
les cinq ans, dressent des plans Le modle appliqu en France
d'action pour amliorer la qua- offre des solutions technique-
lit de l'eau. Ils fixent aussi les ment ralistes et, semble-t-il,
redevances que devront payer efficaces aux principaux pro-
les usagers: une redevance est blmes de gestion publique de
due pour la consommation l'eau: pnurie d'eau, pollution
d'eau, et une autre pour le trai- et utilisation conjointe des eaux
tement des eaux pollues. Ces superficielles et des eaux sou- Source: Banque mondiale. 1993.
redevances jouent comme terraines. II semble toutefois Gestion des ressources en eau:
incitations pour les usagers, et reposer davantage sur l'auto- document d'orientation.
271
ENCADR 16
L'INCIDENCE DES PRIX SUR L'UTILISATION DE l'EA,U
ressent avant tout l'efficacit distributive vantage d'eau que dans la mesure o son
(maximalisation du produitsocial net) comme consentement payer (donc sa demande)
objectif du systme des prix prconisent la l'emporte sur sa propension viter une
tarification au co& marginal. Le coat margi- dpense supplmentaire. En thorie, la tan-
nal reprsente le sacrifice consentir pour fication au coat marginal prmet d'obtenir la
produire une unit de plus d'un bien ou d'un distribution la plus conomiquement effi-
service. II s'inscrit dans un barme li la cace.
quantit et, normalement, augmente me- Mais l'application de ce systme fait surgir
sure que de nouvelles units sont produites. un certain nombre d'obstacles. L'un des
Lorsque l'eau est tarife au coCit marginal, le problmes qui se posent tient la diversit
consommateur rationnel ne demande da- des dfinitions du coat marginal appropri,
274
et notamment savoir s'i I vaut mieux raison- faut fonder la tarification sur des <<prix fic-
ner en court terme (cats variables), ou en tifs46.
long terme en rpercutant l'intgralit des Le principe de la tarification au coCit moyen
cats. La proposition issue des travaux des veut que l'on rcupre i ntgral it des cats
conomistes de l'Etat providence des annes en faisant payer chaque unite au cat moyen
30, A savoir fixer les prix en fonction des de fournitu re detoutes les unites. Le principe
cats marginaux A court terme, a donne lieu est simple et facile A comprendre, en mme
un long dbat. Par exemple, Coase44 objec- temps qu'i I est juste et equitable. Les bnfi-
taitvigoureusement Ace que l'on fixe les prix ciaires ne paient que les cats engages pour
de distribution publique selon ce principe, satisfaire leur demande. Cela permetd'met-
notamment lorsque les cots marginaux sont tre des signaux l'intention des usagers,
infrieurs aux cats moyens (ce qui deter- quoique de manire moins precise qu'avec
mine un dficit et rend ncessaire une sub- une tarification multifactoriel le. Mais, dans
vention publique). Cet auteur critiquait aussi ce cas aussi, il est frequent que seuls des
l'absence de mise l'preuve du march, qui cats historiques servent de base de calcul
permet de determiner si les usagers consen- des coCits moyens, l'exclusion des cats
tent A payer l'intgral it des cats de fourni- d'opportunit.
ture du produ-it; la redistribution du revenu Le principe de la capacit de payer se
favorable aux utilisateurs de produits indus- fonde principalement sur un critre d'quit.
triels A cat dcroissant; enfin, la tendance Les redevances d'eau sont fonction du re-
de l'conomie A la centralisation. venu ou de la richesse plutt que des coCits.
La plupart de ces critiques tombent si l'on Ce principeest le plus couramment appliqu
applique un systme de tarification dans la tarification de l'eau d'irrigation, dans
multifactoriel: d'une part on fixe le prix mar- le monde entier, et c'est aussi celui qui est
ginal au cat marginal, et par ailleurs on appliqu pour l'approvisionnement des vil-
perwit un montant estimatif pour rcuprer lages en eau dans les pays en dveloppe-
les cats venant en excs des cats margi- ment Les conomistes qui considrent l'eau
naux. Et mme dans ce cas, les tarifications comme un produ it se montrent souvent cri-
multifactorielles traduisent souvent mal le tiques vis--vis de cette approche. Les rede-
concept conomique de coad'opportunit, vances tant fortement dissocies des cats,
car on cherche souvent par leur biais el les ne pernnettent pas de tester le con sente-
rcuprer des cats historiques ou annortir ment diffrentiel A payer. Le concept de
des investissements anciens. Les cats d'op- capacit de payer est par definition subjectif,
portunit prendre en consideration sont et des pressions politiques influencent sou-
la fois le cot correspondant la mise en vent la formule dans le sens d'une redistribu-
exploitation de disponibi I its supplemental- tion de la richesse des contribuables vers les
res en eau et la valeur de l'eau pour d'autres usagers de l'eau.
usages45. Les cats d'opportunit devraient Dans bien des regions du monde, l'eau est
&Ire determines aprs ajustement prenant en
compte les distorsions provoques par les G.M. Meier. 1983. Pricing policy for
interventions de l'Etat au titre de la poursuite development management. EDI Series in Economic
d'autres objectifs. En jargon conomique, i I Development. Johns Hopkins University Press,
Baltimore, Maryland.
44 R. Coase. 1971. The theory of public utility 46 L. Small et L Carruthers. 1991. Farmer-financed
pricing and its applications. Bell J. Econ., 1: 113- irrigation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
128. Royaume-Uni.
275
suffisamment rare pour justifier les coOts, tion des politiques. En prsence de couches
tangibles et intangibles, de la mise en place aquifres surexploites, la gestion ou la r-
d'un systme forme' de tarification. Les rede- glementation doivent rpondre deux cat&
vances forfaitaires permettent de rcuprer gories de choix col lectifs; d'une part, pour ce
les coats pour autant qu'il n'y ait pas pnurie qui est de grer l'eau, les dcisions se fon-
grave. Mais lorsque le montant des redevan- dent sur: i) le taux annuel appropri de
ces ne permet pas de signaler une pnurie pompage; Wla distribution gographique du
d'eau, des pressions s'exercent pour appeler pompage; enfin le fait que l'approvision-
des solutions techniques (multiplier les ouvra- nement est complt ou non par des eaux
ges de captage, de stockage et de distribu- superficielles et/ou que la couche aquifre
tion) afin de satisfaire des bespins mal est ou n'est pas recharge artificiellement.
compris. L'autre catgorie de dcisions, savoir coor-
Le caractre invitable de la pnurie d'eau, donner le pompage, dtermine: i) quelles
du moins relative, conduit adopter ternne doivent tre les institutions et les politiques
des systmes de tarification multifactoriels qui rpartissent le taux d'extraction entre
traduisant les cots rels ou les cots d'op- utilisateurs individuels potentiels et classes
portunit de l'eau et des autres ressources d'uti I isateurs, et influencent les modal its de
ncessaires la fourniture du service. Les pompage; et Wcomnnent les rgles qui I imi-
auteurs qui ont tudi les formes les plus tent le pompage sont appliques et leur
souhaitables donner aux marchs de l'eau respect su rvei I l.
et ceux qui traitent de la tarification de l'eau Les trois grands types de dispositifs institu-
convergent sur le principe d'un systme de tionnels permettant de grer les couches
tarification traduisant le cot d'opportun it aquifres sont les prix et les redevances, les
de l'eau par le truchement d'un mcanisnne contrles de quantit et les permis al inables.
de droitsvolumtriquestransfrables l'eauv.
Maitrise du pompage par les prix et les
Coordonner l'extraction de l'eau redevances. Percevoir une redevance de
souterraine pompage est l'un des moyens permettant
L'eau souterraine est une ressource extrme- d'obtenir des taux d'extraction cononni-
ment importante pour beaucoup de pays en quement rationnels. Une tarification conve-
dveloppennent, notamment le Bangladesh, nablement chelonne des redevances fait
l'Inde, le Pakistan et la rgion du Proche- payer aux pompeurs la fois le cot de
Orienttout entire. En Inde, les pu its tubu lai- renonciation de jouissance et les coOts exter-
res donnaient la fin des annes 80 plus de nes (dcoulant des cots accrus de pom-
la moiti de l'eau utilise sur la superficie page) encourus par les autres pompeurs. Ce
irrigue nette48. Parce que la gestion des type de redevance d'eau internalise les coas
couches aquifres doit tenir compte de d'usage et les coas externes et permet de
l'interaction complexe entre la socit et parvenir au taux d'extraction optimale.
l'environnement physique, el le pose des pro- pans la gestion d'une couche aquifre,
blmes redoutables au stade de la concep- cette solution rgle une difficult importante
les pompeurs s'imposent mutuellement
47 Voir, par exemple, R.K. Sampath. 1992. Issues in
irrigation pricing in developing countries. World 48 P. Crosson et J.R. Anderson. 1992. Resources and
Dev., 20(7): 967-977; et A. Randall. 1981. Property global food prospects. Document technique de la
entitlements and pricing policies for a maturing Banque mondiale n 184. Banque mondiale,
water economy. Aust. J. Agric. Econ., 25: 195-212. Washington.
276
des cots (au sens o les cots externes sont dire dans les cas o il suffit pour rsoudre les
rciproques). La rduction de l'utilisation de problmes d'empcher le forage de nou-
l'eau qui se produirait sous l'effet d'une veaux puits et l'installation de pompes sup-
taxation se ferait aux dpens de la red istribu- plmentaires, ou lorsque l'eau pompe n'est
tion de loyers l'autorit qui lve la taxe, ce pas exporte hors de la zone situe la
qui abaisserait le revenu net des exploitants verticale de la couche aquifre. Dans les cas
de la couche aquifre. plus graves d'appauvrissement qui contrai-
gnent tous les usagers rduire leurs extrac-
Matrise des quantits. Les mcanismes de tions annuelles, il convient d'envisager de
matrise des quantits vont du simple permis rglementer les taux d'extraction.
d'exploiter un puits aux droits de pompage Le contingentement du volume pomp est
alinables. Un permis d'exploitation de puits un mcanisme plus prcis de contrle des
et de pompage donne le droit d'installer et quantits. Chaque usager se volt assigner un
d'exploiter un puits d'une capacit donne. volume annuel fixe d'extraction. La quantit
Les permis d'irriguer prcisentfrquemment initiale peut tre dfinie en proportion de
sur quelles terres l'eau puise peut tre util l'utilisation au cours d'une priode de rf-
se, imposant ainsi des restrictions au trans- rence (quoique cette solution risque de d-
port de l'eau vers d'autres sites. clencher une course au pompage pour as-
Afin de protger les pompeurs existants, seoir les droits initiaux) ou se baser sur la
les permis de forer de nouveaux puits peu- proportion des terres dont l'usager est pro-
vent tre limits certains sites. Aux Etats- pritaire la verticale de la couche aquifre.
Unis par exemple, l'Etat du Colorado dfi n it La technologie de mesurage par compteur
des bassins d'eau souterraine protgs des volumes prlevs n'tant ni complexe ni
(lorsque la capacit de reconstitution natu- coteuse, si les pompeurs acceptent la pose
rel le de la couche aquifre est I imite) dans de compteurs la surveillance et l'application
lesquels tous les nouveaux permis de forage des rgles ne pose pas de problmes particu-
doivent rpondre des critres spcifiques- I iers. En principe, le contingentement du
il est interdit d'appauvrir la rserve plus de pompage ne diffre gure des droits classi-
40 pour cent dans un rayon de 3 mil les sur ques l'eau superficielle, qui rpartissent
une priode de 25 ans. Dans la plupart des entre les propritaires une proportion &ter-
cas, il n'est pas possible de limiter au moyen min& du dbit annuel disponible.
de permis de pompage la quantit d'eau L'observation informelle semble indiquer
effectivement extraite. On compte en gn- que les agriculteurs qui autrefois exploitaient
ral que les limitations conomiques qu'im- une couche aquifre sans rglementation
posent les frais de pompage et les prix de la sont persuads d'avoir la pleine jouissance
production vgtale suffisent prvenir une de quantits illimites d'eau sur les terres la
extraction excessive. verticale de la couche aquifre. II est fr-
Les permis prcisant une capacit et un quent qu'ils se montrent hostiles la pose de
espacement appropris peuvent ralentir les compteurs, lesquels, une fois installs, pa-
taux d'extraction. Ils sont relativement faci- raissent sensibles des pidmies de pan-
les surveiller et n'irritent pas trop les nes.
pompeurs, qui en gnral sont trs hostiles Les puits de trs petite capacit, destins
tout mcanisme rglementaire plus svre. abreuver le btail ou desservir les mnages
Par ailleurs, c'est avant que les problmes individuels, pourraient &re exempts de per-
soient devenus graves ou complexes que les mis et de contingentement. Si la surexploita-
permis ont la plus grande efficacit c'est-- tion n'est que modre, le cot de contrle
277
de toutes les petites pompes risquent de merle une illustration en expliquant com-
l'emporter sur les avantages d'une reduction ment les marchands d'eau usage agricole
du pompage. Par ail leurs, pour des motifs de oprent au Bangladesh.
ventilation des revenus, les responsables ne En ce qui concerne la gestion des eaux
souhaitent pas imposer de restrictions aux souterraines, les approches quantitatives sem-
petits exploitants. blent prfrables aux redevances de pom-
page. Elles permettent de parvenir des
Droits de pompage cessibles. Lorsqu'un sys- solutions conomiquementefficaces moyen-
tme de contingentement s'avre trop peu nant une surveillance et un contrle plus
souple compte tenu des variations des reser- simples, tout en vitant les problmes de
ves d'eau et de l'volution de la demande, les redistribution que posent les taxes ou les
droits de pompage cessibles peuvent offrir subventions. Quoique certains contrles
une solution. Le droit de pompage peut se externes plus troits du pompage puissent
subdiviser en deux parties: un element peut &re ncessaires, il n'est nullement impratif
reprsenter un droit sur la reserve d'eau, et que le regime appl iqu soit plus repressif que
un autre correspondre la reconstitution le regime d'application des droits de pro-
annuel le. Les deux elements peuvent varier prit concernant d'autres ressources ou pro-
d'une anne l'autre, les contingents tant duits.
fixes par l'autorit qui administre l'eau sou-
terraine. Les droits annuels la reserve de Gestion conjointe de l'eau souterraine
base varient alors en fonction des conditions et des eaux superficielles
conomiques et hydrologiques actuelles et Ce principe de gestion s'applique aux cours
prvues (y compris les prix de l'nergie et des d'eau et aux couches aquifres se compor-
produits de base, les taux d'intrt et le tant connnne un systme unitaire. Les cou-
volume d'eau souterraine restant). Les droits ches aquifres I ies aux coulennents su per-
correspondant la reconstitution naturel le et ficiels prsentent la fois des avantages et
au debit de retour aprs utilisation humaine des inconvnients et doivent tre gres de
peuvent &refixes de man ire reprsenter la fawn particulire. Le libre accs l'eau
moyenne mobile de la reconstitution estima- souterraine peut en fait annputer les dispon
tive au cours des annes passes. bil its pour ceux qui detiennent des droits
La cessibi I it des droits encourage long sur les eaux superficielles.
terme l'utilisation conomiquement ration- Dans l'Etat du Colorado, aux Etats-U n is, le
nelle, et permet de reaffecter l'eau des problme s'est pose voici 20 ans aux irrigants
usages plus valorisants mesure que la du bassin de la South Platte. L'exploitation
situation conomique volue. Elle est aussi de la couche aquifre rduisait les coule-
compatible avec les critres de contrle lo- ments superficiels, sans grosse incidence sur
cal, et n'entame gure la libert individuel le les quantits pompes. La solution la plus
d'exploiter le sol ou d'y exercer une activit vidente intgrer les pompeurs dans le
commerciale autre. systme existant rgissant les droits l'eau
Une etude rcente fait apparattre que les superficielle, tout en protgeant les dten-
droits cessibles et le marche de l'eau souter- teurs antrieurs de droits cette eau superfi-
raine sont en plein dveloppement en Inde, ciel le aurait signifi sacrifier la majeure
o non moins de la moiti de la superficie partie des avantages conomiques impor-
irrigue brute laquel le l'eau est fournie par
des puits tubulaires fait intervenir de l'eau
achete49. L'encadr 17 donne du phno- 49 Voir note 36, p. 269.
278
tants prsents par l'exploitation de la cou- tion de leur eau, I ivrable dans des rservoirs.
che aquifre. Young, Daubert et Morel-Seytoux5 ont cl-
Aprs que plusieurs mthodes eurent t montr que cette approche dcentralise est
mises l'essai, une solution a t trouve, conomiquement suprieu re la solution
fonde sur le march des droits existants aux
eaux superficielles. En cas de pnurie d'eau
superficiel le, les uti I isateurs de l'eau souter- 50 R.A. Young, J.T. Daubert et H.J. Morel-Seytoux.
raine pourraient remplacer la fraction du 1986. Evaluating institutional alternatives for
dbit superficiel absorbe par pompage dans managing an interrelated stream-aquifer system.
la couche aquifre en rtrocdant une frac- Am. J. Agric. Econ., 68: 787-791.
mnages rejettent dans le milieu les sous- mais la rsultante collective de nombreu-
produ its de leurs activits de consommation ses sources qui, ensemble, ont une inci-
dans le rseau d'gout, dans l'atmosphre, dence sensible. Ce sont les problmes de
ou dans les dcharges o sont accumuls les pollution diffuse qui sont les plus difficiles
dchets solides. Le principe du bilan-rna- rsoudre, et les plus coCiteux grer.
fire, derive de la loi physique fondamentale
de la conservation de la matire, veut que Solutions pour le contr8le de b pollution
dans le long terme la masse des rsidus diffuse
rejets dans l'environnement gale la masse Les politiques visant maTtriser la pollution
des matires extraites l'origine de celui-ci diffuse de l'eau prsentent des difficults
pour are transformes en biens de consom- particulires en raison de la grande diversit
mation. La fonction de l'environnement des sources et des polluants. La source pre-
comme assimilateur de rsidus gale donc sa mire de polluants diffus est le secteur agri-
fonction comme source de matriaux51. cole. Les engrais et les pesticides sont lessi-
Ce principe du bilan-matire a une conse- vs de la surface du sol en direction des lacs
quence importante au plan des politiques, et des cours d'eau, ou bien ils percolent vers
savoir que les rsidus doivent finir quelque les nappes souterraines. Les couches aqu if-
part, soit sous forme de masse, soit sous res sont pollues par les nitrates provenant
forme d'nergie. La gestion des rejets dans de l'application d'engrais et des rsidus des
les cours d'eau doit &Are integre celle de activits d'levage. L'exploitation forestire,
l'vacuation de dchets dans l'atmosphre le dfrichage des fins d'urbanisation et les
et dans les dcharges. Rdu ire la quantit de activits minires sont aussi l'origine de la
dchets rejets dans les eaux ne rsout pas le pollution diffuse des eaux. Les bassins d'orage
problme global qui se pose la socit si qui desservent les vi Iles, les infiltrations pro-
ces dchets sont tout simplement expdies venant des installations enterres de stockage
ailleurs, que ce soit dans l'atmosphre aprs de produits ptroliers et les activits min i-
incineration ou dans un site terrestre de &- res, tant souterraines qu' ciel ouvert, contri-
charge. buent cette pollution.
II faut distinguer deux types de pollution Les eaux de ruissellement qui s'coulent
de l'eau: la pollution ponctuelle et la pollu- sur les terrains agricoles et forestiers empor-
tion diffuse. La pollution ponctuel le se pro- tent des particules sondes en suspension, des
duit l o il existe une source directement solides dissous et des substances chirniques
identifiable, par exemple une canalisation (engrais minraux, notamment azotes et
ou un fosse, qui transporte les agents pol- phosphors, ainsi que pesticides). Parmi les
luants jusqu' un cours d'eau. La rglemen- autres substances souvent prsentes dans les
tation et la surveillance s'appliquent au point eaux de ruissellement, on compte notam-
de rejet. Dans le cas de la pollution diffuse, ment les substances organiques avides en
l'mission de polluants n'est pas imputable oxygne, les produits ptroliers, les mtaux
une source unique facilement identifiable, lourds et les bactries fcales. Par ailleurs, la
pollution diffuse se caracterise par son ca-
ractre pisodique. Les grosses pluies occa-
51 On trouvera un examen plus approfondi de ce sionnelles ou la fonte des neiges sont un
principe dans D.W. Pearce et R.K. Turner. 1990. dclencheur classique, par opposition aux
Economics of natural resources and the &bits plus reguliers de rejet des sources
environment, Chapter 2. Johns Hopkins University ponctuelles de pollution. Ces caracteristi-
Press, Baltimore, Maryland. ques types de sources et priodes d'activi-
281
sujet des sources effectives de pol I uants ris- politiques. A l'inverse d'autres drnarches
quent d'tre sans fin. qui font peser des cots sur la source d'mis-
On peut remplacer les politiques rgle- sion et distribuent les avantages ainsi gagnes
mentaires par diverses mthodes d'incita- sur l'ensennble de la socit, le cot des
tion, mettant en oeuvre taxes, subventions et subventions est rparti sur l'ensemble de la
contreparties la suppression d'missions54. population, et les avantages vont directe-
Des redevances ou taxes peuvent tre per- ment l'utilisateur des terres. Nleanmoins,
gJes soit sur les intrants, soit sur les produ its certains groupes objectent au fait que l'on
qui ont donne lieu une pollution. Par rmunre les pollueurs pour qu'ils ne pol-
exemple, les engrais agricoles sont frappes I uent pas. En outre, cette solution conduit, le
de taxes additionnelles en Suede, le produit cas cheant, subventionner des individus
de cette taxation servant financer le con- qui de toute man ire adopteraient des prati-
trle de la qualit de l'eau. Le renchrissement ques appropries.
est cens rduire les taux d'application d'en- Enfin, une autre approche encore pourrait
grais et par consequent la pollution de l'eau. consister racheter purement et simplement
Mais il est peu probable que les taxes pu is- des droits l'eau etiou l'utilisation des
sent devenir suffisamnnentlortes pour modi- terres. Par exemple, un organisnne public
fier sensiblement l'affectation des terres, car pourrait acquerir des droits sur une partie ou
el les auraient alors un effet trop lourd sur le la total it des terres polluantes, et grer cel-
revenu. les-ci de man ire sauvegarder la qualit de
Par ailleurs, la pollution peut tre taxe l'eau. L'achat de terres forestires tropicales
directement par la perception d'une xrede- par des organismes publics ou privs a t
vance d'effluents. Mais la complexit tech- entrepris pour preserver des forts intactes,
nique et administrative de la tarification et de l'amlioration de la qualit de l'eau repr-
l'imputation precise des agriculteurs nom- sentant un avantage annexe. Dans ce cas
breux des dommages causes par les effluents aussi, les coCits sont supports essentielle-
issus de leur exploitation est un veritable ment par les bnficiaires plutt que par les
casse-tte. La documentation ne cite aucun uti I isateurs des terres dont les pratiques sont
exemple satisfaisant de ce type de taxation effectivement l'origine de la pollution.
de la pollution diffuse.
Les subventions pourraient encourager les
agriculteurs rduire leur pollution, adop-
ter des pratiques d'uti I isation des terres plus
appropries, ou investir dans les mthodes
respectueuses de l'environnement. De lon-
gue date, les pratiques de prevention de
l'rosion du sol (et des pertes de productivit
qui y sont associes) font l'objet de subven-
tions dans beaucoup de pays, et reprsentent
la solution la plus avantageuse au plan des
les solutions permettant de rformer les sys- L'IRRIGATION DANS LES ANNES 90
tmes de gestion et d'administration en la ET AU-DELA
matire. Bien des problmes qui se posent Bien des problmes urgents qui se posent
aujourd'hui dans le domaine de l'irrigation dans le domaine de l'irrigation traduisent les
semblent redoutables, voire insolubles. No- diverses influences conomiques, sociales
tre but n'est pas de donner une image et politiques qui s'exercent dans la socit en
dcourageante de l'avenir de l'irrigation, une *lode de changement conomique et
mais d'clairer les questions importantes qui d'veil l'environnement. Parfois, les pro-
dtermineront son avenir. Lorsqu'une eau blmes d'irrigation rsultent d'une structure
rare est utilise par l'homme dans des r- macro-conomiquefausse qui, quoiqu'el le
seaux d'irrigation, il s'impose d'envisager les subventionne l'exploitation, fait de l'agricu I-
diverses solutions permettant de l'utiliser de ture une activit non rentable, et provoque le
fawn optimale. II importe donc autant de sous-investissennent sur l'exploitation pen-
comprendre quels sont les problmes que dant de trop longues priodes. Si la macro-
pose une mauvaise pratique d'irrigation que cononnie fonctionne mdiocrement, et si
de dcouvrir les possibilits d'irriguer de les prix accusent trop d'cart par rapport la
fawn efficace pour avancer vers des solu- valeur rel le des produ its et services du point
tions plus gnrales. de vue de la socit, il est invitable que
l'irrigation s'en ressente.
Dans d'autres circonstances, c'est l'irriga-
tion el le-mme qui fait problme. Les rsu I-
tats d'ensemble de nombre de projets d'irri-
gation sont dcevants. Les valuations met-
tent en vidence une grande diversit de
problmes, notamment: dpassement de
coats et de dlais; gestion mdiocre; non-
ralisation de l'intgralit des avantages
escompts; impact nfaste sur l'environne-
ment et la sant., enfin, aggravation de l'in
qu it dans la rpartition sociale et conomi-
que des facteurs de production entre les
agriculteurs55. L'encadr 18 rcapitule les
grandes questions qui se posent en ce qui
concerne l'irrigation, tel les qu'identifies par
la FAO, ainsi que les travaux que l'Organisa-
tion entreprend pour amliorer l'utilisation
de l'eau en agriculture.
A la fin du 19 sicle, la superficie irrigue sont accrus rgu I irement depuis 40 ans,
tait passe 48 millions d'hectares, essen- mesure que les meilleures terres et les dispo-
tiellement en raison des vastes projets hy- nibilits en eau les plus faciles mobi I iser
drau I iques raliss sur lesterritoires de l'Inde &talent mises en valeur dans le monde entier.
et du Pakistan d'aujourd'hui56. En 1 990, la Dans la mme priode, les prix mondiaux
superficie irrigue nette atteignait 237 mil- des crales ont accus un vif dcl in, le prix
lions d'hectares, dont prs des trois quarts rel du riz, par exemple, ayant chut de 40
dans les pays en dveloppement. La Chine, pour cent entre le milieu des an nes 60 et la
l'Inde et le Pakistan eux seuls comptent fin des annes 80.
actuellement pour environ 45 pour cent de la En Indonsie et en Inde, les cots rels de
superficie irrigue mondiale, et pour 60 pour l'irrigation ont doubl depuis le dbut des
cent du total situ dans les pays en dvel op- annes 70. Aux Philippines et en Thailande,
pement. les coils de ralisation d'amnagements
A l'chelle mondiale, la superficie irrigue hydrauliques se sont accrus de 50 pour cent,
s'est accrue en moyenne de 1 pour cent par tandis qu' Sri Lanka i Is ont tripl59. Ayant
an dans le dbut des annes 60, atteignant un examin divers rapports et documents d'va-
taux d'accroissement annuel maximal de 2,3 luation rcents, notamment ceux de la Ban-
pour cent entre 1972 et 1975. Le taux d'ex- que mondiale et de la FAO, Poste16 observe
pansion a commenc diminuer aprs 1975, ce qui suit: Aujourd'hui, les investissements
et n'est plus actuellement que de 1 pour cent en capital ncessaires pour mettre une terre
par an. Aux taux actuels d'accroissement de en irrigation s'tablissent entre 1 500 et 4000
la population, le ralentissement de l'expan- dollars par hectare pour les grands projets
sion de la superficie irrigue se traduit par un dans les pays suivants: Chine, Inde, Indonsie,
recu I sans prcdent de la superficie irrigue Pakistan, Philippines et ThaTlande. I Is pas-
par habitant57. sent 6 000 dollars par hectare au Mexique.
Ce ralentissement est principalement En Afrique, o routes et autres lments
imputable la hausse des coCits de construc- d' i nfrastructu re font souvent dfaut, et o les
tion d'ouvrages, la baisse des prix rels parcelles susceptibles d'tre irrigues sont
du bl et du riz, une prise de conscience relativement petites, les cots l'hectare ont
croissante des consquences envi ronnemen- atteint une fourchette de 10 000 20 000
tales et des cots sociaux, et la mdiocrit dollars, et dpassent parfois ces valeurs.
des rsultats de l'irrigation l'chelon tant Mme une double campagne de production
des exploitations que des projets58. agricole de haute valeur ne saurait rendre
conomiquement tenables des rseaux d' ir-
Prix agricoles et coasts de ralisation rigation situ& l'extrmit haute de cette
des amnagements plage de cots. Or, ce ne sont pas seule-
Les cots de ralisation des amnagements ment les projets de grande ampleur qui sont
et d'exploitation des projets d'irrigation se devenus aussi coteux; la FAO estime que
les cots de ralisation d'amnagements de
demande, ainsi que des mca- tion des dpressions. En agri- de l'eau d'irrigation et son inci-
n ismes de rcupration des culture irrigue, un drainage dence, .ainsi que des stratgies
coeds pour financer l'exploita- artificiel s'impose dans prati- visant rduire au minimum la
tion et l'entretien des ouvrages quement tous les cas. II est ca- pollution de l'eau rsultant d'ac-
d'irrigation. pital de contenir au maximum tivits agricoles. En outre,
Pour accroftre la production les besoins de drainage et les conviendrait d'laborer
sur les terres pluviales, il est coats correspondants en rdu l'chelon national des strat-
ncessaire de faire appel tou- sant les sources d'eau excden- gies et plans tablissant un ca-
tes les connaissances existantes take par une rationalisation du dre rationnel pour l'utilisation
en matire de gestion des sols rseau et des pratiques de ges- agricole des eaux uses retrai-
et de Peau pour que l'eau trouve tion de l'eau sur l'exploitation. tes et des eaux de drainage.
l'utilisation agricole la plus ef- Le suivi de l'eau du sol et les
ficace possible. La poursuite des bilans hydriques contribueront Petits programmes
recherches dans les domaines dfinir les besoins de drai- hydrauliques
de l'eau pluviale et de la ges- nage. Les petits projets sont en gn-
tion des sols est en outre nces- Le contrle de la salinit du ral le fait de communauts lo-
saire, et il conviendra de runir sol dans les zones sensibles doit cales ou d'individus qui &finis-
et de diffuser des exemples de tre entrepris suffisamment tt sent la plupart des activits eux-
pratiques efficaces et fructueu- pour que puissent tre mises en mmes puis les exploitent, quoi-
ses de l'agriculture pluviale. oeuvre les pratiques permet- qu'un certain degr d'assistance
tant de rsoudre le problme. technique soit souvent nces-
Engorgement, salinisation En outre, des projets pilotes de sake. Les petits programmes
et drainage drainage devraient tre lancs peuvent porter sur diffrentes
L'engorgement et la salinisa- dans les zones engorges et technologies: captage, forage
tion des sols sont parmi les prin- salinises, afin de s'assurer de et exploitation de puits, driva-
cipales causes de la perte de la justesse des solutions techni- tion sur les cours d'eau et utili-
productivit de nombre de p- ques et de l'efficacit des mat& sation de terres humides.
rimtres irrigus. L'engorge- riaux employs. Le plan d'action estime que
ment est dCi un apport exces- les petits programmes hydrau-
sif d'eau dans des primtres Gestion de la qualit de l'eau liques peuvent contribuer au
dont la capacit de drainage Pour assurer un dveloppement dveloppement agricole dura-
naturel est finie. Une fois qu'il durable de l'agriculture, il faut ble. Toutefois, leur extension
y a engorgement, la salinit du prendre en compte deux as- doit se fonder sur des avis et un
sol augmente parce que l'eau pects importants de la qualit soutien techniques adquats,
d'irrigation abandonne dans le de l'eau: la qualit de l'eau une collaboration accrue entre
sol des solides initialement dis- d'irrigation ne doit pas tre fac- les institutions et une plus
sous. II est essentiel de sur- teur de dommages pour les cul- grande participation des col-
veiller les niveaux de la nappe tures; et d'autre part les activi- lectivits locales. Des politi-
phratique ds le dbut du pro- ts agricoles ne doivent pas ques et programmes nationaux
jet pour mettre en oeuvre des avoir une incidence telle sur la doivent tre labors pour en-
mesures correctrices avant que qualit des eaux superficielles cadrer l'excution de petits pro-
le sol ne se soit dgrad. ou des eaux souterraines qu'elle jets hydrauliques dans la pers-
Le plan d'action fait valoir limite leur utilisation ultrieure. pective du dveloppement ru-
qu'en agriculture pluviale un Le plan d'action guggre ral. II sera par consquent n-
drainage de surface est nces- d'excuter des programmes de cessaire de renforcer la capa-
sake pour prvenir l'engorge- surveillance de la qualit ayant cit des petits agriculteurs
ment temporaire et l'inonda- pour objet d'valuer la qualit d'excuter, d'exploiter et d'en-
288
tretenir les ouvrages hydrauli- terme, suivies de programmes ses pour faire face aux sche-
ques raliss dans le cadre de concrets d'excution afin de resses, et donner aux collecti-
petits programmes. Le suivi et s'assurer que l'eau soit utilise vits locales les moyens de faire
l'valuation des petits projets par l'agriculture de manire front dans ces priodes.
hydrauliques devraient permet- compatible avec la raret des
tre de discerner les causes ressources. Activits d'appui
d'chec aussi bien que de rus- II conviendra de &fink une Les cinq domaines mentionns
site. stratgie visant la gestion des ci-dessus doivent faire l'objet
terres et des eaux en vue du d'activits communes d'appui,
Gestion de ressources hydriques dveloppement durable de savoir constitution de bases
peu abondantes l'agriculture dans une situation de donnes adquates, recher-
Nombre de pays voient leur de pnurie d'eau. Simultan- che adaptative, renforcement
dveloppement bloqu du fait ment, les politiques ainsi dfi- des institutions, mise en valeur
que les ressources hydriques nies devront rester compati- des ressources humaines,
disponibles ne suffisent pas bles avec la situation socio-co- amlioration de l'analyse socio-
satisfaire la demande. Le plan nomique du lieu et du moment, conomique, protection de l'en-
d'action note que les situations ainsi qu'avec les impratifs vironnement, transfert de tech-
de pnurie d'eau doivent faire environnementaux. En outre, nologies et dveloppement des
l'objet de stratgies long des mesures devraient tre pri- infrastructures.
289
taille mrne moyenne s'tablissent entre pente viennent envaser les rservoirs et les
2 400 dollars par hectare en Asie et 7 200 citernes d'irrigation. Simultanment, les
dollars en Afrique. pratiques d'irrigation mal comprises sont
Paralllement, la modernisation des ouvra- facteurs d'engorgement, de salinisation,
ges et des primtres existants devient de d'rosion et de pollution de l'eau, et leurs
plus en plus onreuse. Nombre de projets effets se font directement sentir chez d'autres
anciens conps pour une seule campagne irrigants.
culturale annuel le voient les rendements se La FAO estime que sur les 237 millions
dgrader peu peu. Ces amnagements d'hectares actuellement irrigus, environ 30
doivent tre redfinis pour autoriser une millions d'hectares sont gravement touchs
diversification des cultures et un accroisse- par la salinisation, tandis que 60 80 mil-
ment des rendements, conomiser l'eau et lions d'hectares supplmentaires en souf-
rduire les risques pour l'environnement. frent dans une moindre mesure. Le PNUE a
Or, cette modernisation suppose de revtir le signal rcemment que le taux de perte de
lit des canaux, d'amliorer les ouvrages de terres irrigues en raison de l'engorgement et
rgulation hydraulique, d'amliorer l'am- de la salinit des sots tait de 1,5 million
nagement des terres et d'appliquer des tech- d'hectare par an62. Effectivement, des mil-
niques d'irrigation appropries. lions d'hectares de terres irrigues, du Maroc
L'accroissement des cots rels d' i nvestis- au Bangladesh et du nord-ouest de la Chine
sement (y compris la prise en charge des jusqu'en Asie centrale sont atteints par ce
coCits environnementaux) et la baisse des mal volutif. Les superficies touches par la
prix agricoles onteu pour effet une rduction sal in isation, en pourcentage de la superficie
apprciable du nombre des nouveaux pro- irrigue totale, sont estimes 10 pour cent
jets d'irrigation. Les prts cumuls consentis au Mexique, 11 pour cent en lnde, 21 pour
l'irrigation par les donateurs internatio- cent au Pakistan, 23 pour cent en Chine et 28
naux et les grands pays producteurs de c- pour cent aux Etats-Unis63.
ralesontatteint dans les annes 80 la moiti La salinisation se produit sous l'effet com-
seulement du montant total prt dans les bin d'un mauvais drainage et d'un taux
annes 7061. Ce recul de l'investissement a lev d'vaporation, qui concentrent les sels
dtermin un ralentissement du taux de crois- dans les terres irrigues; le phnomne se
sance de la superficie irrigue. produit principalement dans les rgions ari-
des ou semi-arides. Mrne une eau d'irriga-
Irrigation et &gradation des terres tion de bonne qualit contient une certaine
L'escalade de la demande dont font l'objet quantit de sels en solution, et peut en aban-
les ressources en eau depu is une dizaine donner plusieurs tonnes par hectare chaque
d'annes n'est que l'un des facteurs dont ont anne. A moins que ces sels ne soient entraT-
A se proccuperamnageurs et hauts respon- ns par l'eau au-dessous de la couche dans
sables. Les bassins versants qui fournissent laquelle plongent les racines, le sol devient
l'eau, comme les terres o se pratique l'agri-
culture irrigue, se dgradent. La pollution
industriel le et domestique se fait sentir sur 62 PNUE. 1992. Sauver notre plante. PNUE,
l'agriculture irrigue, tandis que les sdi- Nairobi.
ments en levs par l'eau sur les terrains en 63 D.L. Umale. 1993. lrrigation-induced salinity: a
growing problem for development and the
environment Document technique de la Banque
61 Voir note 59, p. 285. mondiale, n 215. Banque mondiale, Washington.
290
sal in. Plusieurs facteurs influencent la sal i- dans les couches superficielles jusqu'A at-
nit, notamment la profondeur de la nappe teindre des niveaux toxiques.
phratique, les caractristiques capillaires Les pays o svissent l'engorgement des
du sol et les pratiques de conduite de l'irriga- sols et leur sal inisation sont confronts A un
tion, notamment la quantit d'eau apporte di lemme. I Is ne peuvent contraindre les agri-
en excs de l'vapotranspiration effective culteurs abandonner les terres concernes
des plantes pour lessiver les selsm. car une population toujours plus nombreuse
L'accroissement rapide du taux d'humi- n'a que cette seu le ressource, sans avoir pour
dit du sol, qui se produit simultanment autant les moyens de les drainer convena-
jusqu'A engorger celui-ci et faire baisser les blennent. La cure, lorsque la nappe phratique
rendements culturaux, est un phnomne monte, consiste A drainer et A amliorer la
qui s'associe la sal in isation. L'engorgennent maitrise de l'eau pour rduire la percolation;
du sol n'est pas un rsultat invitable de or, le drainage est coCiteux, et une mei I leu re
l' irrigation. II se produ it lorsque des quantits maitrise de l'eau exige de raliser des inves-
excessives d'eau sont introduites dans un tissements sur les exploitations et de former
systme dont la capacit de drainag naturel du personnel de vulgarisation en mme temps
est I imite. Des infiltrations se produisent si que les agriculteurs.
les sols sont trs lgers; si les canaux et les Vers la fin des annes 50, le Pakistan a
ouvrages ne sont pas revtus ou sont mal entrepris de forer des pu its pour pomper les
entretenus; si les agriculteurs d'amont souti- eaux salines. L'investissennent initial futlev,
rent et appliquent des quantits excessives et les colls d'exploitation ont augnnent de
d'eau; si les champs sont mal nivels; enfin, faon constante. Entre 1 971 et 1985, le cot
lorsque le rseau d'acheminement de l'eau d'exploitation des puits et des drains s'est
ne permet pas de ragir aux prcipitations multipli par cinq, tel point qu'actuel le-
naturelles en fernnant l'alinnentation. ment ce pays consacre plus d'argent la
L'irrigation peut faire monter la nappe remise en tat de terres qu' l'irrigation.
phratique jusqu'A environ un mtre de la L'entretien des drains est cinq fois plus cal-
surface, ce qui produit une salinisation se- teux que l'exploitation d'un systme de trans-
condaire, l'eau souterraine apportant en sur- port de l'eau d'irrigation; or, la majorit des
face des sels dissous provenant de la couche agriculteurs ne paient effectivement que la
aquifre, du sous-sol et de la zone racinaire. moiti du prix de revient de l'eau d'irrigation
Si l'infiltration et letransport horizontal d'eau qui leur est I ivre.
dpassent les capacits d'vaporation et de Certains responsables de la politique de
drainage naturel, le niveau de la nappe monte, l'eau estiment qu'A mesure que la valeur de
et il finit par y avoir engorgement du sol. l'eau augmente, celle-ci sera de mieux en
Dans les zones arides, o mouvement ascen- mieux gre et que le gaspillage (facteur
dant de l'eau et vaporation l'emportent sur d'insal ubrit et d'aggravation des besoins de
la percolation vers le bas, et o l'eau souter- drainage) s'en trouvera rduit. Les agricul-
raine, le sol ou bien l'eau d'irrigation con- teurs pourraient alors en venir A accepter de
tiennent des sels, ceux-ci se concentrnt payer un service de drainage qui rendrait
leurs investissements leur durabilit.
ENCADR 19
BON GOUVERNEMENT ET EFFICACIT DE L'IRRIGATION
L'amlioration des rsultats de un cadre legislatif, applicable rgles et, s'ils ne s'acquittent
l'irrigation est une question de tous sans favoritisme ni corrup- pas de leurs fonctions de faon
bon gouvernement, ou d'ad- tion, qui limite l'exercice arbi- satisfaisante, les obligeant
ministration avise. Le principe traire du pouvoir et assure une rendre compte de leur gestion?
semble aller de soi, mais com- protection contre celui-ci. Les personnalits officielles
ment cela se traduit-il exacte- Quelques exemples simples il- sont-elles attentives aux besoins
ment en ce qui concerne l'irri- lustrent comment ces quatre de la population?
gation? Quatre facieurs princi- facteurs de bon gouvernement
paux de bon gouvernement se manifestent en ce qui con- Competence. Les cadres sont-
peuvent tre envisags, cerne l'irrigation. ils en mesure d'tablir des bud-
l'chelon tant national que lo- gets prcis et d'effectuer effi-
cal: la lgitimit du gouverne- Legitimit. Au moment o un cacement les prestations de
ment; sa fiabilit; sa compe- nouveau projet est envisag, services, par exemple en assu-
tence; enfin, son respect des les personnes vivant dans la rant rgulirement l'entretien
droits de l'homme et la supr- zone concerne sont-elles con- des canaux? Existe-t-il des dis-
matie du droll1. sultes en ce qui concerne la positions pour les former ou les
La legitimit provient de ce conception des amnagements? remplacer par des personnes
qu'une population exprime son Existe-t-il des groupes repr- comptentes s'ils s'acquittent
consentement tre gouver- sentatifs d'agriculteurs recon- mal de leurs obligations?
ne, de la faon dont elle est nus comme tels, o les femmes
consulte et de la possibilit soient reprsentes? Les repr- Suprmatie du droit. Un cadre
qu'elle a de retirer son consen- sentants de ces groupes sont-ils juridique clair rglemente-t-il
tement. La fiabilit des politi- lus et responsables vis--vis l'utilisation de l'eau souterraine
ques et des fonctionnaires se des membres? Ces groupes pour prvenir le pompage ex-
mesure la faon dont ils expli- prennent-ils part aux dcisions cessif dans la couche aquifre?
quent leur rille et leurs dci- qui les concernent? Par exem- La loi est-elle applique? Est-il
sions, aux informations qu'ils ple, si un projet d'irrigation au possible de rglementer la pol-
fournissent et la responsabi- moyen d'eau souterraine hypo- lution par l'industrie ou par les
lit qu'ils assument pour leurs thque les disporlibilits en eat" eaux salines provenant d'ouvra-
comportements. Un gouverne- potable tires avec des pompes ges de drainage en amont? Les
ment fait preuve de compe- bras, les groupes d'entraide ventuelles drivations illga-
tence en formulant des politi- locaux en sont-ils informs et les effectues par les agricul-
ques et en les traduisant en invits faire valoir leurs int- teurs en tte des canaux sont-
actions de manire la fois rts? elles surveilles, et les contre-
opportune et efficace. Les gou- venants sont-ils sanctionns
vernements qui respectent les Fiabilit. Le montage financier l'issue d'un procs quitable,
droits de l'homme tablissent du projet d'irrigation est-il diligent, objectif et sans discri-
rendu public, et les dispositions mination pour des motifs de
prises sont-elles exposes aux race, de sexe ou d'appartenance
'Banque mondiale. 1992. agriculteurs? Existe-t-il des cri- une minorit?
Gouvemements et clveloppe- tres de rsultat et des moyens
ment. Banque mondiale, de vrification assurant que les
Washington. responsables observent bien les
292
des services des eaux qui tous gards ces peut ainsi tre amliore pour se hisser
semblent raisonnables et justes. Lorsque l'eau la hauteur des progrs effectus en gnie
est considre comme un produ it d'une es- hydrau I ique et dans les disciplines scientifi-
pce particu I ire, ou revt un caractre af- ques. Tous ceux qui exercent des responsa-
fectif ou religieux, les gouvernements ne sont bilits dans le domaine du dveloppement
gure encl ins faire payer aux agriculteurs de l'irrigation et du bien-tre des agriculteurs
l'eau d'irrigation. Les dcideurs politiques et de leurs fami I les commencent avoir une
ont souvent beaucoup de mal assurer vision plus large de la tche qui leur in-
l'Etat des revenus suffisants pour rpondre ne combe, et consacrer autant d'attention la
serait-ce qu'aux besoins prioritaires. Or, les gestion et la mise en valeur qu'aux aspects
consquences pratiques d'unetel le situation purement techniques.
sur des activits traditionnellement de ser- L'examen de la documentation rcente
vice public peuvent are trs graves, et le consacre la gestion et aux politiques du
secteur de l'eau a t l'un des premiers secteur public fait apparaTtre la ncessit
subir les effets des conomies budgtaires d'insuffler un esprit nouveau aux autorits
forces et de la rarfaction des ressources. II classiquement charges de l'irrigation, pour
est toutefois improbable qu'i I fasse davan- les faire passer d'une vision technicienne,
tage les frais de l'austrit que d'autres sec- favorisant le gnie civil et la construction
teurs. L'encadr 19 examine la corrlation d'ouvrages, une perspective davantage
entre o bon gouvernement et rsultats de axe sur les gens (agriculteurs), plus auto-
l' irrigation. nome et plus attentive aux besoins de la
L'une des meilleures perspectives qui s'of- clientle, donc en faire un organe de gestion
frent au progrs de l'irrigation et assur- stratgique de services. Dans le monde en
ment au dveloppement en gnral rside dveloppement, de nombreux groupes des
dans le potentiel norme que prsentent les sous-secteurs de l'eau reconnaissent le rle
237 millions d'hectares dj irrigus. Alors qu'ils ont jouer dans la gestion d'une eau
que la valeur totale des investissements ra- prcieuse paralllement d'autres ressour-
I iss dans l'irrigation dans le monde en dve- ces pour contribuer la croissance conomi-
loppement se chiffre aujourd'hui environ que et l'attnuation de la pauvret.
1 000 milliards de dollars, la rentabilit du La gestion de l'irrigation n'a de fawn
capital immobilis est bien infrieure au gnrale pas un palmarstrs reluisant, mais
potentiel connu. Nombre de primtres d'ir- la pleine tendue des problmes est souvent
rigation ont encore besoin d'investissements masque par l'absence de critres d'valua-
apprciables pour tre achevs, modern iss, tion des rsultats et par diverses subventions
ou tendus. Quoique la remise en tat des occultes. On a souvent voulu croire que si les
amnagements existants cote de plus en agriculteurs ne se plaignaient pas, cela sign i-
plus cher, el le peut tre minemment renta- fiait que l'adm in istration tait ncessairement
ble. bonne. Or, l'absence de plaintes dans un
Outre des investissements en capitaux, systme fortement subventionn n'est certes
faut aussi investir dans les ressources humai- pas un bon indicateurd'efficacit. Par ai I leurs,
nes pour amliorer la gestion des irrigations certains administrateurs en difficult vi-
sur les plans de l'conomie, de l'efficacit et dente doivent s'accommoder de leur mieux
de l'efficience. L'investissement dans la ges- de toute une srie de facteurs exognes qui
tion de l'irrigation peut s'inscrire de plein limitent l'efficacit de leur action, ne serait-
droit parmi les lments d'une politique d'em- ce que des taux de change survalus.
ploi rural productif, et la gestion des ressour- Les Philippines offrent un exemple de r-
293
ENCADR 20
SYSTMES AUTOFINANCS:
LA RFORME ADMINISTRATIVE AUX PHILIPPINES
l'eau souterraine tant extrnnennent diffici le Orientations futures pour une politique
imposer. A l'inverse, grce leurs contacts de gestion de l'eau
troits avec les groupes locaux, leurfacult La durabi I it du dveloppement agricole est
de mobiliser les bonnes volonts et d'inspi- fonction de la durabilit de rut! lisation de
rer la cohsion, les ONG peuvent fournir l'eau. Les pouvoirs publics reconnaissent
l'impulsion institutionnelle requise pour sus- actuellement que la recherche d'une crois-
citer des solutions socialement optimales67. sance conomique durable impose, pour
296
partie, certaines rformes des politiques, sur les financements, de donner des impul-
l'chel le tant de l'conomie en gnral que sions plus vigoureuses et de mieux planifier
des secteurs particuliers qui la constituent. ['affectation des ressources, et d'autre parten
Les politiques gnrales tendront susciter s'ouvrant la ncessit de puiser davantage
un climat macro-conomiquefavorable, tan- d'ides auprs de la base (la clientle d'agri-
dis que les politiques du secteur de l'eau, par culteurs). Or, il est probable que les pres-
exemple, s'efforceront de susciter chez les sions financires dominent: l'irrigation, g-
usagers la volont d'uti I iser efficacement les re par une agence du secteur public, a
ressources. besoin d'tre finance, et dpend donc des
L'accent plac actuellement sur la rforme fonds publics; mais nombreux sont ceux qui
des politiques macro-conomiques et sur la estiment que cela porte peu conomiser de
libralisation de l'conomie a plusieurs con- l'argent et que ce statut pourrait, en pratique,
squences importantes en ce qui concerne produ ire l'effet inverse.
['irrigation. L'une des principales est que A mesure que les disciplines du secteur
l're des subventions massives, directes ou priv sont appliques ['irrigation, les hauts
indirectes, est quasiment rvolue. En outre, responsables constatent ce qui suit: les agen-
la reconnaissance du caractre prcieux de ces appuient de plus en plus les efforts per-
l'eau (et le cot lev de la transformation sonnels des ruraux et tendent de moins en
d'une source d'eau en une prestation de moins prendre toutes les dcisions impor-
services sur ['exploitation agricole) fait du tantes sans en rfrer dOment aux agricul-
secteur de l'eau un objectif de choix pour les teurs; elles recherchent davantage le
rformes futures des politiques. Nanmoins consensus sur l'tablissement des priorits,
['irrigation denneu re, dans la priode detran- davantage d'informations pour fonder leurs
sition actuel le, un secteur avide de ressour- dcisions et une convergence de vues sur les
ces. Car mme une irrigation rationnel le et facteurs externes dterminant les dcisions
efficace absorbe de grandes quantits de de gestion; les bassins d'irrigation recher-
capital et de devises, et immobilise un per- chent et obtiennent davantage d'autonomie;
sonnel qualifi encore trop rare. les responsabi I its financires et la responsa-
Comme tant d'administrateurs du secteur bilit morale des administrateurs vont crois-
public, les responsables de l'irrigation doi- sant; enfin, ces administrateurs sont moins
vent marcher sur la corde raide, d'une parten assujettis aux dcisions min istriel les et gou-
s'efforpnt d'exercer un contrle plus troit vernementales quand les redevances d'irri-
gation permettent un degr suffisant d'auto-
financement.
67 On trouvera des informations plus dtailles sur Actuellement, le gnie hydraulique se
les activits des ONG dans les ouvrages ou nourrit de mathmatiques, de physique, de
documents suivants: M. Cernea. 1985. Putting chimie et de biologie; la gestion s'inspire de
people first: sociological variables in development l'conomie, de la psychologie, des sciences
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, politiques, de l'histoire et de la philosophie,
Maryland; ou M. Cernea. 1988. Nongovemment et exige aussi un grand talent personnel pour
organisations and local development. Document de la communication, la ngociation et le tra-
travail n 40, de la Banque mondiale; ou S. Paul et vail en quipe. Or, mesure que, dans de
A. Israel. 1991. Nongovemment organisations and nombreux pays, la conjoncture de l'irriga-
the World Bank: cooperation for development. tion volue, les administrateurs constatent
Etudes rgionales et sectorielles de la Banque qu'i I leur faut acqurir de nouvelles connais-
mondiale. sances et de nouveaux savoir-faire.
297
On peut rcapituler comme suit certaines L'irrigation autorise des choix plus ration-
des tendances qui se dessinent: nels et plus diversifis en ce qui concerne les
o L'eau et l'hydraulique font de plus en pratiques culturales et les productions vg-
plus l'objet de politiques et de moins en tales de haute valeur. Le dveloppernent
moins de simples projets; cette tendance futur du monde est troitement li au succs
devrait se poursuivre, voire s'accentuer. de l'irrigation, car celui-ci influence
o Le secteur de l'eau pourrait devenir un puissamnnent le volume de l'offre et le prix
domaine o sont mises l'preuve les des denres vivrires. Au moment o le
rformes conomiques, la libralisation dbat sur les politiques de l'eau prend un
et la fiabilit des structures nouvelles. tour plus vif, il importe plus que jamais que
oVu la raret de l'eau et sa valeur dans les les dcideurs agricoles contribuent en d-
utilisations urbaines et industrielles, le finir la teneur, et qu'i Is sachent peser dans les
sous-secteur de l'eau sera de moins en grandes dcisions d'orientation.
moins domin par l'irrigation, et les usa-
ges polyvalents de l'eau seront de mieux
en mieux reconnus.
o L'irrigation est un seiviceoffertaux clients
et aux usagers; el le n'est point une acti-
vit de production en soi.
0A l'chelon du primtre irrigu, le pro-
cessus d'valuation pralable, de
formulation et d'valuation des rsultats
des politiques de l'eau doit faire interve-
n r des groupes plus larges, reprsentatifs
des composantes politiques, techniques,
gestionnaires et (c'est le plus important)
des associations d'usagers de l'eau.
Ces groupes de dfinition des politiques
devraient tre consults avant d'oprer
des choix, et devraientfournir par la suite
des informations en retour conduisant
des ajustements prenant en compte l'ex-
prience acquise.
Les groupes de dfinition des politiques
devraient avoir mission d'identifier les
solutions compatibles avec le cadre des
politiques nationales, en toute indpen-
dance vis--vis des intrts et des pres-
sions de groupes particuliers.
o L'objectif gnral est d'identifier une
gamme plus tendue de solutions et de
principes pour une politique de l'eau,
afin de prendre des distances vis--vis
des politiques de crise et de gnrer
davantage de rsi I ience devant les pres-
sions extrieures.
298
Chapitres s ciaux
Depuis 1957, ce rapport prsente chaque anne, outre l'tude habituelle rcente de l'alimentation
et de l'agriculture dans le monde, un ou plusieurs chapitres spciaux consacrs des problmes
d'intrt plus permanent. Les sujets ainsi traits ont t les su ivants:
In preparation:
International agreements for the protection of environmental and agricultural
resources: an economics perspective
Structural adjustment and agriculture: a comparative analysis of African and Asian
experience
A multidisciplinary analysis of local-level management of environmental resources
Analysing the effects of liberalization scenarios in North-South production and trade
patterns using the computable general equilibrium model
Growth theories, old and new, and the role of agriculture in economic development
303
The State of Food and Agriculture 1993 is To use TIME SERIES for SOFA'93, you need:
supplemented by a computer diskette, presented in a DOS-based minicomputer with a graphic
English only on an experimental basis. lf, as display
expected, there is a favourable response, starting a hard disk with at least 3.8 megabytes free
with the 1994 issue the publication will also If you are using MS-Windows, you can use TIME
include an improved version of the diskette in SERIES as a DOS application.
French and Spanish. TIME SERIES can also be installed on most Local
The diskette, which contains a comprehensive Area Networks.
set of annual statistical information on the The program and data files are distributed on
agricultural, forestry and fishery sector, covers your TIME SERIES for SOFA'93 diskette in a
153 countries and 12 country groups. The data compressed form and need to be decompressed
stretch from the year 1 961 to 1992 and, in addition before use.
to the information used in this publication, include The file containing the program (TSPROG.EXE)
most of the statistics published by FAO as and the file containing the data (SOFA.EXE) are
"Country Tables". The diskette provides a program both self-extracting.
called TIME SERIES, which may be used for For a standard installation from floppy disk drive
reading, displaying and manipulating the data. A to a drive C:\SOFA93 directory:
This program has been developed by Karl insert your TIME SERIES for SOFA'93 diskette
Gudmunds and Alan Webb in drive A
of the Economic Research Service, United States type: A:INSTALL [press ENTER]
Department of Agriculture, and FAO has been
authorized use rights for the distribution of the A small batch file on the diskette creates a
country tables accompanying The State of Food C:\SOFA93 directory and does the copying and
and Agriculture 1993. decompression for you.
Alternatively, for installation on other drives or
Technical information and installation of directories:
TIME SERIES for SOFA'93 copy the files TSPROG.EXE and SOFA.EXE
TIME SERIES is a fast and easy-to-use tool for from your diskette to the drive of your choice
displaying and analysing large time series data type TSPROG [press ENTER] ... then SOFA
sets. Data can be displayed in the form of charts [press ENTER] in order to decompress them
and tables. The program supports basic statistical
analysis and allows time trend projections and After installation, to start working with the
cross-sectional comparisons of data to be made. program:
For further analysis, data can be exported into type: SOFATS [press ENTER]
standard formats that are readable by commonly
used database and spreadsheet programs or, If you are short of space after successful
alternatively, it can be directly exported to an installation, you may delete the files SOFA.EXE
ASCII file format. The program is fully menu- and TSPROG.EXE from your hard disk. You will
driven, offers an online help facility and can thus save 1.4 megabytes, keeping the total space used
be used even by very inexperienced users. by TIME SERIES for SOFA'93 to 2.4 megabytes.
304
foolproof method to detect estimates. For a countries/items of your choice or select the TOP
detailed explanation of data sources and MEMBERS, which can be a number up to 50 (if
reliability, see the appropriate FAO Production available). The TOP MEMBERS will always be
Yearbook or FAO Trade Yearbook. ranked when you display them as a chart. In
addition, it is possible to remove a range of
Some useful hints for working with TIME SERIES members from the top for display. (Hint: If you
for SOFA'93 want to see only the last 20 countries out of 153,
Your work with TIME SERIES for SOFA'93 is fully just remove 133 countries from the top.)
guided by pull-down menus with additional short
instructions at the top and bottom of your screen. While you are displaying a graph on your screen
If you need more help: You can call for help as usual by pressing the F1
press the F1 key, which gives you full online key. In TIME TREND display you can scroll
instructions regarding your specific problem through different items and countries by pressing
press the F1 key twice for help according to a the T and j, or the PAGEUP and PAGEDOWN
list of subjects keys. On ITEM and COUNTRY PROFILES, there
After selecting your file, you will normally start are similar functions (press F1 for the HELP
by selecting a country and an item from the DATA window).
menu. Then you have a range of five options to You will also see that you can print your graph
display and analyse your data in the GRAPH on a printer by pressing P on your keyboard.
menu: Before printing, you can add any text of your
The first choice (DISPLAY) will provide you choice to the graph (e.g. the REGRESSION
with an immediate chart display of your data function) by pressing the INSERT key. This text can
(always return with the ESC key). be written in a horizontal or vertical mode and in
The second choice (TREND LINE) allows you to large or small letters; for help while you are
enrich your data display with a regression line. inserting text, press F1.
You have the choice of forcing the program for a You can add up to five different items/countries
linear, parabolic or exponential regression line, or on one chart in the TIME TREND display. By
leaving it for the program to determine the "best pressing the + key you will be asked whether you
fit". Returning to the display will now give you a want to add other items or countries or other items
chart containing the data line, the trend line and from different countries to your chart for a cross-
R-square information. country and/or cross-item comparison. To remove
The third item (LIMITS) allows you to restrict the these items/countries again, press the key.
display of the time span of your data (DATA If you want to see the underlying numbers of
DISPLAY) and/or the years for the TREND LINE your chart, press: i) the letter A and you will see
calculation. A third item (PROJECTION YEAR) the annual data with some statistics; or ii) the
allows you to make a time trend projection up to a letter T and you will see the regression
target year of your choice. information, including the functional type
With the fourth item (STYLE) on the GRAPH (the latter will only work if you have opted for
menu you can change the shape of your chart a TREND LINE).
(line, bars or scatter).
The fifth item (VIEWPOINT) lets you switch from Viewing data in the form of tables
a time series display (TIME TREND) of your data to Go to the TABLE menu.
a cross-sectional comparison between countries Select BROWSE and browse through your data
(COUNTRY PROFILE) or items (ITEM PROFILE). with the PAGEUP and PAGEDOWN (countrywise)
When selecting ITEM or COUNTRY PROFILE, and Arrow keys (item- and year-wise). Pressing F2
you will be asked to select either a number of will transpose your table and display the years in
306
columns, which looks much better in most cases. select UNITS and MAGNITUDE
If you need your data in any other program you place the cursor on 1s and press ENTER
can compose a table for exporting by selecting
CREATE TABLE. Select the countries and items you You have to change back to 1,000s when
want to export with the + key and SAVE the table working with other data. However, when you start
in the format of your choice. Before saving, you your work with TIME SERIES, the setting will
may check the data with the VIEW function. always be for 1,000s (default setting).
The SCALAR option allows you to apply a factor
Options from the PROGRAM menu to your current data set temporarily (valid only for
With the FILE option, you can select a different this session). You can thus change the display of
data file from your list of 11 files. the population figures from thousands to millions,
You can write and store your own NOTES with for example.
the data file and view them whenever you work
with your data. These notes are stored in a Warranty and conditions
separate file with a different extension on your All copyright and intellectual property rights are
hard disk (no change is made or harm done to reserved. The Food and Agricultural Organization
your data files). (FAO) declines all responsibility for errors or
With the UNITS option you can change your deficiencies in the database, for maintenance, for
data display from real figures to INDEX numbers. If upgrading and for any damage that may arise from
you do so you have to determine the PIVOT YEAR, use of the database. FAO also declines any
which will be the reference year with a value set responsibility for updating the data. However,
to one. users are kindly asked to report to FAO any errors
Changing the MAGNITUDE becomes necessary or deficiencies found in this product.
for the agricultural and food production indices Note: Data and/or program files may be damaged
and the food supply data (see above), because during shipping. If you discover any damage to
these data are not stored in units of thousands. your diskette, please return it to:
Therefore, when you select data from the
AGRFOOD.TS or AGRFOODA.TS files: ESP
go to the PROGRAM menu FAO
select UNITS and IvIAGNITUDE Viale delle Terme di Caracalla
place the cursor on 1s and press ENTER 00100 Rome, Italy
For SUPPLY.TS or SUPPLYA.TS files: You will be sent a replacement diskette as soon
go to the PROGRAM menu as possible.
TIME SERIES
FOR SOFA'93
Country TIME SERIES
TS - VIEW Software by
Karl Gudmunds and Alan Webb
USDA/ERS