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Under Armour

Footwear and Apparel

Camilo Lyon | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity Inc. (US) | CLyon@canaccordgenuity.com | 212.849.3978


US Equity Research Pallav Saini | Associate | Canaccord Genuity Inc. (US) | psaini@canaccordgenuity.com | 212.389.8054
20 April 2017

HOLD Estimates Revised


unchanged
PRICE TARGET US$20.00
unchanged
Price (19-Apr) US$19.19
Time heals all wounds, and UA needs more time;
Ticker UA-NYSE
maintain HOLD, $20 PT
52-Week Range (US$): 18.40 - 47.95 Investment recommendation
Market Cap (US$M): 8,589
Shares Out. (M) : 447.6
The trifecta of headwinds that plagued UA last year (overexposure to sporting goods,
overexposure to NA, and overexposure to performance apparel) has not abated, in our
FYE Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E opinion. While UA is working to diversify its channel mix as evidenced by its recent entry
Sales (US$M) 4,828 5,401 6,220 into KSS (and forthcoming entry into DSW and Famous Footwear later this year), our
Previous - 5,397 6,224 checks suggest the apparel segmentation efforts have fallen short of expectations. In
P/Sales (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4 addition, we are concerned about the lackluster trends in footwear (and Curry) as it is
EPS (US$) 0.58 0.41 0.52 a key element to the growth story. Specifically, we believe the combination of a lack of
P/E (x) 33.0 46.3 37.2 newness/differentiation in the Curry 3 coupled with too many releases too soon at a
higher price point ($140) resulted in tepid Q1 sales. The latest Curry 3Zero release at
Quarterly Sales Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
$120 appears to be doing modestly better. We highly regard the brand and its long-term
2016A 1,048 1,001 1,472 1,308
2017E 1,103 1,072 1,649 1,577
growth prospects; however, the product and geographic diversification occurring now
2018E 1,278 1,242 1,893 1,808
will take time to yield results. As such, we remain cautious on UA heading into its 1Q17
report on Thursday, April 27 BMO.
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Muted Q1 expectations as promotions and competition heat up: For Q1, we are
2016A 0.04 0.01 0.29 0.23 projecting EPS of -4c vs. -3c consensus on net revenue growth of +5.3%, slightly
2017E (0.04) (0.09) 0.26 0.29 below consensus of +5.9%. By category, we are projecting +2% growth in apparel as
2018E (0.03) (0.08) 0.29 0.34
the category continues to suffer from sporting goods bankruptcies, a limited casual
60 lifestyle assortment, and heavy promotional activity by competitors like Nike. On this
55 last point, we have learned that Nike has relaxed its MAP (minimum advertised price)
50 policy guardrails on apparel, thus allowing retailers to offer 25% off apparel throughout
45 the year vs. only during limited times previously. This is a sign that Nike is taking an
40 aggressive stance toward UA while it is weakened and/or this is Nike's way of attempting
35 to claw back lost market share at the expense of gross margin neither of which is good
30
for UA. As for footwear, competition is fierce as Adidas is not showing signs of slowing,
25
but at least the market is not abnormally promotional. We are projecting revenue growth
20
of +13% in footwear, implying a sequential deceleration of ~54ppts on a two-year basis
due to soft Curry sales. With higher markdowns anticipated, we project GM will be down
15
108bps and inventory will remain elevated through Q3 before normalizing in Q4.
May-16

Aug-16

Mar-17
Nov-16

Apr-17
Dec-16

Feb-17
Sep-16
Jun-16

Oct-16

Jan-17
Jul-16

New channel expansion should help keep full-year outlook intact but with a back-
UA half weighting: With the channel expansion efforts fully underway, we do not anticipate
S&P500(rebased)
Source:FactSet
a change to the company's full-year outlook as incremental sell-in should help mitigate
Priced as of close of business 19 April 2017
the lost sales from TSA and other smaller regional sporting goods retailers. That said,
we do believe the company will place a greater proportion of the full-year sales growth
Under Armour is a leading manufacturer of athletic apparel, weighting on 2H17. We thus are reducing our Q2 sales growth/EPS estimates from
footwear, and accessories, selling its products through 13.7%/-4c to 7.1%/-9c and commensurately increasing our Q4 estimates to 20.6% sales
wholesalers, factory outlet stores, and online.
growth and 29c in EPS with no change to our full year 41c EPS estimate.
Valuation
Our $20 PT is based on a blend of 35x 2018E EPS, 18x EV/EBITDA, and DCF.
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all
the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.

For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 4 of this document.
Under Armour
Estimates Revised

Figure 1: UA projected income statement


December Fiscal
Incom e Statem ent 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Revenue
Apparel 666.6 612.8 1,021.2 928.5 679.9 631.2 1,082.5 1,058.5 747.9 694.3 1,190.7 1,164.4 1,385.4 1,762.2 2,291.5 2,801.1 3,229.1 3,452.1 3,797.3
Footw ear 264.2 242.7 278.9 227.7 298.6 279.1 362.6 330.2 388.2 362.8 471.3 429.2 239.0 298.8 431.0 677.7 1,013.5 1,270.4 1,651.6
Accessories 79.7 100.7 121.8 104.3 83.7 110.8 146.2 130.4 92.1 121.9 160.8 143.5 165.8 216.1 275.4 346.9 406.6 471.1 518.2
Total Net Sales 1,010.5 956.3 1,421.9 1,260.6 1,062.2 1,021.1 1,591.2 1,519.1 1,228.1 1,179.1 1,822.8 1,737.1 1,790.1 2,277.1 2,997.9 3,825.7 4,649.3 5,193.7 5,967.1
Licensing revenues 19.4 21.0 29.5 29.9 20.4 25.2 35.4 35.9 24.5 30.2 42.5 43.1 44.8 55.0 67.2 84.2 99.8 116.9 140.3
Connected Fitness 18.5 23.5 20.2 18.3 20.4 25.8 22.2 21.9 25.4 32.3 27.7 27.4 0.0 0.0 19.2 53.4 80.4 90.3 112.9
Intersegment eliminations (0.8) 0.0 (0.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.4) 0.0 0.0
Total Net Revenue 1,047.7 1,000.8 1,471.6 1,308.1 1,102.9 1,072.2 1,648.8 1,577.0 1,278.0 1,241.6 1,893.1 1,807.6 1,834.9 2,332.1 3,084.4 3,963.3 4,828.2 5,400.9 6,220.3

COGS 567.1 523.1 772.9 721.6 608.8 562.9 865.6 867.3 702.9 649.4 992.9 985.1 955.6 1,195.4 1,572.2 2,057.8 2,584.7 2,904.7 3,330.3
Gross Profit 480.6 477.6 698.6 586.6 494.1 509.3 783.2 709.6 575.1 592.3 900.1 822.5 879.3 1,136.7 1,512.2 1,905.5 2,243.5 2,496.2 2,890.0
SG&A 445.8 458.3 499.3 419.8 508.2 554.5 604.2 508.0 584.4 637.7 694.8 584.2 670.6 871.6 1,158.3 1,497.0 1,823.1 2,174.8 2,501.0
Operating Incom e 34.9 19.4 199.3 166.8 (14.0) (45.2) 179.0 201.7 (9.3) (45.4) 205.4 238.3 208.7 265.1 354.0 408.5 420.3 321.4 389.0

Interest expense, net (4.5) (5.8) (8.2) (8.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (5.2) (2.4) (5.3) (14.6) (26.4) (40.0) (40.0)
Other Income, net 2.7 (3.0) (0.8) (1.7) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (5.3) (4.1) (6.4) (7.2) (2.8) (4.0) (4.0)
Pretax Income 33.1 10.7 190.3 157.1 (25.0) (56.2) 168.0 190.7 (20.3) (56.4) 194.4 227.3 198.3 258.6 342.2 386.7 391.1 277.4 345.0
Taxes 13.9 4.3 62.1 52.2 (7.0) (15.7) 53.8 61.0 (6.7) (18.6) 64.1 75.0 74.7 98.7 134.2 154.1 132.5 92.0 113.8
Net Income $19.2 $6.3 $128.2 $104.9 ($18.0) ($40.5) $114.2 $129.7 ($13.6) ($37.8) $130.2 $152.3 $123.6 $159.9 $208.0 $232.6 $258.7 $185.4 $231.1
EPS, diluted $0.04 $0.01 $0.29 $0.23 ($0.04) ($0.09) $0.26 $0.29 ($0.03) ($0.08) $0.29 $0.34 $0.29 $0.37 $0.48 $0.53 $0.58 $0.41 $0.52
Factset Consensus $0.05 $0.01 $0.25 $0.25 ($0.03) ($0.03) $0.26 $0.22 ($0.02) ($0.01) $0.29 $0.25 $0.60 $0.72 $0.49 $0.54 $0.60 $0.42 $0.50

Shares outstanding, diluted 443.3 442.9 445.9 447.6 447.6 447.6 447.6 447.6 447.6 447.6 447.6 447.6 425.2 428.6 436.0 440.9 444.9 447.6 447.6

Margin Analysis
Gross Margin Total 45.9% 47.7% 47.5% 44.8% 44.8% 47.5% 47.5% 45.0% 45.0% 47.7% 47.6% 45.5% 47.9% 48.7% 49.0% 48.1% 46.5% 46.2% 46.5%
y/y change (bps) (1.04%) (0.65%) (1.29%) (3.14%) (1.08%) (0.23%) 0.03% 0.16% 0.20% 0.20% 0.05% 0.50% (0.48%) 0.82% 0.29% (0.95%) (1.61%) (0.25%) 0.24%
SG&A 42.5% 45.8% 33.9% 32.1% 46.1% 51.7% 36.6% 32.2% 45.7% 51.4% 36.7% 32.3% 36.5% 37.4% 37.6% 37.8% 37.8% 40.3% 40.2%
leverage/(deleverage) 0.94% (1.49%) 0.60% 0.72% (3.53%) (5.93%) (2.71%) (0.12%) 0.35% 0.36% (0.06%) (0.11%) 0.80% (0.83%) (0.18%) (0.22%) 0.01% (2.51%) 0.06%
EBIT Margin 3.3% 1.9% 13.5% 12.7% (1.3%) (4.2%) 10.9% 12.8% (0.7%) (3.7%) 10.8% 13.2% 11.4% 11.4% 11.5% 10.3% 8.7% 6.0% 6.3%
Other income 0.3% (0.3%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.3%) (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%)
Taxes 42.0% 40.5% 32.6% 33.2% 28.0% 28.0% 32.0% 32.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 37.7% 38.2% 39.2% 39.9% 33.9% 33.2% 33.0%
Net Income 1.8% 0.6% 8.7% 8.0% (1.6%) (3.8%) 6.9% 8.2% (1.1%) (3.0%) 6.9% 8.4% 6.7% 6.9% 6.7% 5.9% 5.4% 3.4% 3.7%
Grow th Analysis
Revenue
Apparel 20.0% 18.9% 18.0% 7.4% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% 14.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 23.5% 27.2% 30.0% 22.2% 15.3% 6.9% 10.0%
Footw ear 64.2% 58.0% 42.1% 36.4% 13.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 31.5% 25.1% 44.2% 57.3% 49.5% 25.3% 30.0%
Accessories 26.2% 21.3% 17.6% 7.4% 5.0% 10.0% 20.0% 25.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 25.3% 30.3% 27.4% 26.0% 17.2% 15.9% 10.0%
Total Net Sales 29.6% 27.2% 22.0% 11.7% 5.1% 6.8% 11.9% 20.5% 15.6% 15.5% 14.6% 14.3% 24.7% 27.2% 31.7% 27.6% 21.5% 11.7% 14.9%
Licensing revenues 14.7% 16.0% 21.3% 20.4% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 22.5% 22.8% 22.3% 25.3% 18.6% 17.1% 20.0%
Connected Fitness 119.4% 73.3% 39.8% 7.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 20.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 177.8% 50.6% 12.3% 25.0%
Total Net Revenue 30.2% 27.7% 22.2% 11.7% 5.3% 7.1% 12.0% 20.6% 15.9% 15.8% 14.8% 14.6% 24.6% 27.1% 32.3% 28.5% 21.8% 11.9% 15.2%
Gross Profit Dollars 27.3% 26.0% 19.0% 4.4% 2.8% 6.6% 12.1% 21.0% 16.4% 16.3% 14.9% 15.9% 23.4% 29.3% 33.0% 26.0% 17.7% 11.3% 15.8%
Gross Profit Dollars ex-licensing revs 27.9% 26.5% 18.9% 3.7% 2.7% 6.0% 11.8% 21.0% 16.2% 16.1% 14.7% 15.7% 23.4% 29.6% 33.6% 26.0% 17.7% 11.0% 15.6%
SG&A 27.4% 32.0% 20.1% 9.3% 14.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 21.9% 30.0% 32.9% 29.2% 21.8% 19.3% 15.0%
EBIT 26.1% (39.3%) 16.3% (6.1%) (140.2%) (333.3%) (10.2%) 20.9% (34.0%) 0.5% 14.7% 18.2% 28.2% 27.0% 33.5% 15.4% 2.9% (23.5%) 21.0%
Net Income 63.5% (57.0%) 27.6% (0.7%) (194.0%) (738.0%) (10.9%) 23.6% (24.7%) (6.6%) 14.0% 17.5% 32.8% 29.4% 30.1% 11.8% 11.2% (28.3%) 24.7%
EPS 62.1% (57.3%) 26.5% (1.8%) (193.1%) (731.2%) (11.2%) 23.6% (24.7%) (6.6%) 14.0% 17.5% 31.2% 28.3% 27.9% 10.5% 10.2% (28.8%) 24.7%
Source: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity Research
A more detailed financial model, including balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow projections, if available, may be obtained by contacting your Canaccord Genuity Sales Person or the Authoring Analyst, whose contact information appears on the front page of this report.

2
Hold unchanged Target Price US$20.00 unchanged | 20 April 2017 Footwear and Apparel 2
Under Armour
Estimates Revised

Other stocks under coverage discussed in this report:


Nike (NKE : NYSE : $55.86 | HOLD).

2
Hold unchanged Target Price US$20.00 unchanged | 20 April 2017 Footwear and Apparel 3
Under Armour
Estimates Revised

Appendix: Important Disclosures


Analyst Certification
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Sector Coverage
Individuals identified as Sector Coverage cover a subject companys industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoring
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Investment Recommendation
Date and time of first dissemination: April 20, 2017, 05:04 ET
Date and time of production: April 20, 2017, 05:04 ET
Target Price / Valuation Methodology:
Under Armour - UA
Our $20 target is based on a blend of 35x our 2018E EPS, 18x EV/EBITDA, and DCF.
Nike - NKE
Our $51 price target is a blend of 20x 2018E EPS, 12x EBITDA, and DCF.
Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation:
Under Armour - UA
1) We believe the primary risk to our thesis is a deceleration in sales. UA's premium multiple is predicated on the continuation of robust
sales growth and thus any perceived or actual slowdown in top-line trends would likely result in multiple compression. 2) Another risk
includes unforeseen supply chain issues that could lead to gross margin contraction and/or order cancellations. Should demand for its
product continue to outstrip supply, margins could suffer as the company is forced to compensate its customers for late deliveries.
Nike - NKE
The following risks to our thesis could impact our estimates and therefore our price target: 1. We believe the primary risk to our thesis is
a deceleration of top-line growth characterized by a sharp deceleration of demand for key running and/or basketball product. We believe
NKE's P/E multiple is predicated on the continuation of robust sales growth and thus any perceived or actual slowdown in top-line trends
would likely result in multiple compression. 2. Another risk includes any unforeseen supply chain issues that could lead to gross margin
contraction and/or order cancellations. 3. Increasing competition from Under Armour and Adidas also poses a risk.

Distribution of Ratings:
Global Stock Ratings (as of 04/20/17)
Rating Coverage Universe IB Clients
# % %
Buy 570 60.38% 38.95%
Hold 275 29.13% 18.18%
Sell 28 2.97% 10.71%
Speculative Buy 71 7.52% 69.01%
944* 100.0%
*Total includes stocks that are Under Review

Canaccord Genuity Ratings System


BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.

Hold unchanged Target Price US$20.00 unchanged | 20 April 2017 Footwear and Apparel 4
Under Armour
Estimates Revised

Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the
relevant issuer.
Risk Qualier
SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the
stock may result in material loss.
12-Month Recommendation History (as of date same as the Global Stock Ratings table)
A list of all the recommendations on any issuer under coverage that was disseminated during the preceding 12-month period
may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http://disclosures-
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Required Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication)


Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of Under Armour
and Nike or in any related derivatives.
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Investment Banking
services from Under Armour and Nike in the next three months.
An analyst has visited the material operations of Under Armour and Nike. No payment was received for the related travel costs.
Under Armour Rating History as of 04/19/2017
B:$80.00 B:$93.00 B:$97.00 B:$105.00 B:$130.00 B:$65.00 B:$44.00 H:$20.00
07/24/14 12/03/14 02/05/15 07/23/15 10/14/15 04/18/16 10/25/16 01/31/17
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17

Closing Price Target Price

Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)

Nike Rating History as of 04/19/2017


H:$35.50 H:$38.00 H:$44.00 H:$47.00 H:$46.50 H:$48.00 H:$54.00 H:$54.50 H:$59.50 H:$61.50 H:$66.00 H:$57.00 H:$56.00 H:$52.00 H:$51.00
06/02/14 06/27/14 09/26/14 12/15/14 03/18/15 03/20/15 06/25/15 09/22/15 09/25/15 10/15/15 12/21/15 03/23/16 06/29/16 09/23/16 10/13/16
$75
$70
$65
$60
$55
$50
$45
$40
$35
Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17

Closing Price Target Price

Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)

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Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a request

Hold unchanged Target Price US$20.00 unchanged | 20 April 2017 Footwear and Apparel 5
Under Armour
Estimates Revised

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methodologies and/or other factors. It is possible, for example, that a subject company's common equity that is considered a long-

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Estimates Revised

term Hold' or 'Sell' might present a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary selling pressure in the market or for other
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considered susceptible to a downward price correction, or other factors may exist that lead the research analyst to suggest a sale over
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Copyright Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited. 2017 Participant of ASX Group, Chi-x Australia and of the NSX. Authorized and
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