Correction: A previous version of this report stated that Former Utah Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright said

that he will
not be running for Chaffetzs seat. Wright has made no public announcements. We regret our error.

TO: Interested individuals

FROM: Quin Monson Ph.D., Luke Carter, Scott Riding Y2 Analytics
DATE: April 28, 2017

UVU PRESIDENT MATTHEW HOLLAND VIEWED MOST FAVORABLY BY THIRD

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICANS; PROVO MAYOR JOHN CURTIS
COMPETITIVE; FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MCMULLIN POLARIZING

Ten days after Congressman Jason Chaffetz made his surprise announcement that he would not run for reelection
in Utahs 3rd Congressional District in 2018, Y2 Analytics conducted a poll to determine how likely Republican
Primary voters view many of his potential replacements. While the rules of the election to succeed Chaffetz have
not yet been set, in many scenarios Republican Primary voters will have a large say in the future of this district.

Utah Valley University President Matthew Holland received the highest aided favorability score overall, with an

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com 1

average rating of 77 out of 100.1 Among other potential candidates, Provo Mayor John Curtis and Utah County
Commissioner Nathan Ivie are the next most positively viewed, although they are less well known than Holland.

Evan McMullin is the most polarizing of the potential candidates, with only 9% rating him 90 or above and 15%
rating him less than 10.

President Donald Trump and Congressman Jason Chaffetz remain popular among likely Republican Primary voters
in the district, as they have aided favorability scores of 65 and 76, respectively. However, respondents are less
approving of the job Donald Trump has done as President when compared to Republicans across the country.
According to the most recent Pew Center study, 73% of Republicans nationwide strongly approve of the job that
President Trump has done, while only 34% of likely Republican Primary voters in Utahs 3rd District say the same.2
Respondents who report that they voted for Trump in 2016 have a considerably less favorable view of Evan
McMullin, giving him an average aided favorability score of only 34. Of the potential candidates, Holland performs
best among Trump voters, with an informed favorability score of 76, similar to his overall informed favorability
score of 77.

McMullin has the highest name recognition by far of the potential candidates, with only 28% of respondents unable
to provide an opinion of him. Holland, who has never held elected office, as well as Curtis, Speaker of the Utah
House of Representatives Greg Hughes, and State Senator Curt Bramble are the next most well-known potential
candidates. All are known by at least 25% of likely Republican Primary voters in the district. The remaining state
legislators, as well as other potential candidates, have extremely low name recognition at this early stage.

1
Aided favorability scores were computed by prompting those respondents who did not provide a score or selected Dont know for a given
individual with a brief description of that individuals background. These combined scores are reported throughout this memo.
2
http://www.people-press.org/2017/04/17/presidential-approval-detailed-tables-april-2017/

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com 2

Comparing the two state senators, Deidre Henderson has slightly higher favorability overall, with an average
favorability score of 52 compared to Curt Brambles score of 49. However, Bramble has the higher name
recognition across the district, as 38% of respondents have an opinion of him, while only 16% of respondents have
an opinion of Henderson. Deidre Henderson is comparatively more popular with likely Republican Primary voters
in her state senate district, earning an average favorability of 68 from her 7th District constituents. Curt Brambles
score among his state senate district constituents is 49. One caveat the sample sizes on these subgroups are
very low, and we do not have enough interviews to report on constituents of members of the Utah House of
Representatives.

Despite the early stage of the race, we included two hypothetical ballot scenarios to get a sense of preliminary
candidate position. We included our best sense of candidates who had either given strong indications of running
and/or who have a meaningful public profile in the district. In a hypothetical head-to-head contest between
Holland, McMullin, Henderson, Hughes, and Former Utah Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright, Holland leads
with 38% of the vote. Because Holland has not expressed interest in the race, we also tested a matchup between
McMullin, Henderson, Hughes, Wright, and Curtis. McMullin currently leads with 33% of the vote in this scenario.
With the candidate field and electoral process still very uncertain, these preliminary numbers should be considered
fluid.

This poll of 445 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted April 2227. The poll carries a +/- 4.6 percentage
point margin-of-error. All interviews were collected online among voters currently registered in Utahs 3rd
Congressional District.

See attached topline report for complete survey details, including sampling methodology, full question wording,
results of other political and policy questions, and demographics.

Y2 Analytics 60 S 600 E Suite 250 SLC, UT 84102 www.y2analytics.com 3



UTAHS 3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY
TOPLINE REPORT

METHODOLOGY DETAILS

n=445 Likely Republican Primary Voters in the 3rd Utah Congressional District
Online interviews fielded April 22-27, 2017
Margin-of-error +- 4.6

rd
For these survey results, 445 likely voters were sampled from the states file of active registered voters in Utahs 3 Congressional District (see sampling
details below). Sampling error is only one possible source of error in survey research. Results can also be affected by measurement error (e.g. question
wording and question order), coverage error (e.g. counting as likely voters survey respondents who will not vote), and non-response error (e.g. the
people who responded to the survey are systematically different from people who refused or were not reachable).

Before drawing the sample, a model of Republican primary election turnout was estimated using age, party registration status, length of registration,
permanent absentee status, and past election turnout (one recent election is used as the dependent variable, in this case the 2016 Republican Primary
election). This model produces a sampling pool of registered voters that can be randomly sampled based on their likelihood of voting. A Probability
Proportionate to Size (PPS) sample was drawn using this predicted turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher
probability of being selected in the sample. Thus, the final sample accurately approximates a population of Republican primary election voters.

The resulting sample was matched to email addresses provided by a contact information vendor. We sent three email invitations to the sample, starting on
nd th
April 22 and closing April 27 .

Weights were constructed to correct for potential non-response bias on age, county, and likelihood of turning out in a Republican Primary based on the
model used in the PPS sampling.

CONTACT

For more information, please contact Scott Riding or Quin Monson at:

Scott Riding, 801-556-3204, scott@y2analytics.com

Quin Monson, 801-367-6588, quin@y2analytics.com

Y2 Analytics
60 South 600 East Ste. 250
Salt Lake City, Utah 84102

Page 1 of 12


QTRACK1. Generally speaking, do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the
wrong track? (n = 443)

Right direction 60%

Wrong direction 40

QQUAL1. Do you currently live in Utahs 3rd Congressional District? (n = 445)

Yes 75%
No (TERMINATED) --
Dont know 25

Note: Invitations were limited to voters registered to vote in the 3rd District. This question served to screen out those who had moved out of the district
without updating their registration.

QQUAL2. Are you, or is anyone in your household, employed with an advertising agency, newspaper, television or radio station, political
campaign, or serving in public office? (n=445)

Yes (TERMINATED) --
No 100%
Dont know *

QTRACK2. Now thinking just about Utah, do you feel things in Utah are going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten off on the
wrong track? (n=441)

Right direction 78%

Wrong direction 22

QVOTEPARTY. Generally speaking, in statewide or federal elections for Governor, US President, and Congress do you usually vote for... (n = 442)

Only Republican candidates 14%

Mostly Republican candidates 70
An even split of Republicans and Democrats 11
Mostly Democratic candidates 2
Only Democratic candidates *
Other party candidates 3

Page 2 of 12


QUNAIDEDFAV. Below are the names of some people that have been in the media recently.

Please rate each one on a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 means that you feel very unfavorable and 100 means you feel very favorable
toward that person. You can use any number between 0 and 100.

(RANDOMIZED QFAV SERIES)

Average % Dont know
Favorability / Skipped

Matt Holland 79 64%

Gary Herbert 72 11
Mike Lee 71 14
Jason Chaffetz 71 11
Donald Trump 64 8
John Curtis 63 71
Nathan Ivie 61 80
Mike McKell 59 86
Orrin Hatch 55 11
Greg Hughes 53 66
Deidre Henderson 52 84
Thomas Wright 52 89
Evan McMullin 49 28
Curt Bramble 48 62
Dan McCay 48 89
Damian Kidd 46 90
Chia-Chi Teng 46 79

Page 3 of 12


(IF QUNAIDEDFAV = Dont Know, QDETAILEDFAV SHOWN)

QDETAILEDFAV. Here is a bit more information on some of these individuals.

Please rate each one on a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 means that you feel very unfavorable and 100 means you feel very favorable
toward that person. You can use any number between 0 and 100.

(RANDOMIZED QDETAILEDFAV SERIES)

Average
Favorability

Mike Lee, US Senator (n = 12) 77

Jason Chaffetz, US Representative for Utahs 3rd District (n = 8) 76
Gary Herbert, Governor of Utah (n = 12) 75
Matt Holland, President of Utah Valley University (n = 113) 75
Donald Trump, President of the United States (n = 5) 65
Greg Hughes, Speaker of the Utah State House of Representatives (n = 67) 62
John Curtis, Mayor of Provo (n = 99) 61
Chia-Chi Teng, Computer Science Professor at BYU and Candidate for Utahs 3rd District in 2016 (n = 76) 60
Orrin Hatch, US Senator (n = 12) 59
Curt Bramble, Member of the Utah State Senate from Provo (n = 35) 55
Thomas Wright, Former Chair of the Utah State Republican Party (n = 83) 55
Deidre Henderson, Member of the Utah State Senate from Spanish Fork (n = 22) 55
Evan McMullin, Former CIA Operative and Candidate for President in 2016 (n = 37) 51
Nathan Ivie, Utah County Commissioner (n = 38) 51
Mike McKell, Member of the Utah State House of Representative from Spanish Fork (n = 31) 49
Dan McCay, Member of the Utah State House of Representatives from Riverton (n = 32) 48
Damian Kidd, Lawyer at Driggs, Bills & Day (n = 30) 37

Page 4 of 12


(QUNAIDEDFAV AND QDETAILEDFAV AVERAGE FAVORABILITY COLLAPSED INTO QAIDEDFAV. WHERE AVAILABLE, AIDEDFAV SUBSTITUTED FOR DONT KNOW
ON UNAIDED FAV)

QAIDEDFAV.

Average
Favorability

Matt Holland, President of Utah Valley University 77

Gary Herbert, Governor of Utah 72
Jason Chaffetz, US Representative for Utahs 3rd District 71
Mike Lee, US Senator 71
Donald Trump, President of the United States 64
John Curtis, Mayor of Provo 62
Nathan Ivie, Utah County Commissioner 58
Mike McKell, Member of the Utah State House of Representative from Spanish Fork 56
Orrin Hatch, US Senator 55
Greg Hughes, Speaker of the Utah State House of Representatives 55
Thomas Wright, Former Chair of the Utah State Republican Party 54
Chia-Chi Teng, Computer Science Professor at BYU and Candidate for Utahs 3rd District in 2016 53
Deidre Henderson, Member of the Utah State Senate from Spanish Fork 52
Evan McMullin, Former CIA Operative and Candidate for President in 2016 49
Curt Bramble, Member of the Utah State Senate from Provo 49
Dan McCay, Member of the Utah State House of Representatives from Riverton 48
Damian Kidd, Lawyer at Driggs, Bills & Day 42

QPRESAPPROVE. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? (n = 406)

Strongly approve 36%

Somewhat approve 39
Somewhat disapprove 11
Strongly disapprove 13
Dont know 1

QACA. What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the Affordable Care Act? (n = 403)

Keep the law as it is <1%

Keep the law in place and work to improve it 26
Repeal the law and replace it with an alternative 50
Repeal the law and not replace it 20
Dont know 3

Page 5 of 12


QIMMIGRATION. Thinking about the way the U.S. government deals with the issue of illegal immigration, which of the following policy goals should be
the governments top priority? (n = 400)

Deporting immigrants already in the U.S. illegally 12%

Developing a plan to stop immigrants from entering the U.S. illegally 51

Developing a plan to allow those in the U.S. illegally who have jobs to
37
become legal residents

(RANDOMIZED QBALLOT SERIES)

QBALLOT1. If the 2018 Republican Primary for US Representative for Utahs 3rd Congressional District were being held today, and you had to
choose from the following candidates, for whom would you vote? (n = 357)

Matt Holland 38%

Evan McMullin 27
Greg Hughes 10
Deidre Henderson 7
Thomas Wright 2
Someone else 16

QBALLOT2. If the 2018 Republican Primary for US Representative for Utahs 3rd Congressional District were being held today, and you had to
choose from the following candidates, for whom would you vote? (n = 347)

Evan McMullin 33%

John Curtis 21
Greg Hughes 13
Deidre Henderson 7
Thomas Wright 3
Someone else 23

Page 6 of 12


QSEX. Are you: (n = 395)

Male 50%
Female 50

QYEARBORN. What year were you born? (RECODED INTO AGE CATEGORIES) (n = 395)

18-24 3%
25-34 5
35-44 8
45-54 19
55-64 25
65+ 41

QLIVED. How long have you lived in Utah? (n = 397)

Less than 2 years 1%

3-5 years 2
6-10 years 5
11-20 years 12
21 or more years 81

QPARTYID. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? (n = 397)

Republican 70%
Democrat 1
Independent / Something else 14
No preference 7
Other 8

(IF QPARTYID = Republican OR Democrat, ASKED QINTENSE ELSE WENT TO FILTER BEFORE QLEAN)

QINTENSE. Would you call yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican/Democrat)? (n = 281)

Strong 71%
Not very strong 29

Page 7 of 12


(IF QPARTYID Republican OR Democrat, ASKED QLEAN ELSE WENT TO QIDEOLOGY)

QLEAN. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or the Democratic Party? (n = 114)

Republican 69%
Democratic 9
Neither 22

QPARTY7 RECODED FROM QPARTYID, QINTENSE, & QLEAN. (n = 397)

Strong Republican 50%

Not very strong Republican 20
Independent leaning Republican 20
True Independent/Other 7
Independent leaning Democratic 3
Not very strong Democrat <1
Strong Democrat <1

QIDEOLOGY. On most political matters do you consider yourself: (n = 395)

Strongly conservative 43%

Moderately conservative 45
Neither, middle of the road 10
Moderately liberal 2
Strongly liberal *

Page 8 of 12


(IF QPARTYID = Republican OR QLEAN = Republican, SHOWN QGOPIDENTITY SERIES)

Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. As you read the statements, please focus on the Republican Party
or Republicans as a group. (n = 351)

(RANDOMIZED QGOPIDENTITY SERIES)

QGOPIDENTITY1. When someone criticizes the Republicans, it feels like a personal insult.

Strongly disagree 9%
Disagree 21
Neither agree nor disagree 40
Agree 26
Strongly agree 3

QGOPIDENTITY2. I dont act like a typical Republican.

Strongly disagree 7%
Disagree 23
Neither agree nor disagree 39
Agree 25
Strongly agree 6

QGOPIDENTITY3. When I talk about Republicans, I usually say we rather than they.

Strongly disagree 7%
Disagree 16
Neither agree nor disagree 34
Agree 35
Strongly agree 9

QGOPIDENTITY4. Republican successes are my successes.

Strongly disagree 7%
Disagree 12
Neither agree nor disagree 38
Agree 37
Strongly agree 6

QGOPIDENTITY5. When someone praises Republicans, it feels like a personal compliment

Strongly disagree 7%
Disagree 15
Neither agree nor disagree 50
Agree 26
Strongly agree 2

Page 9 of 12


(IF QPARTYID = Republican OR QLEAN = Republican SHOWN QGOPLABEL)

QGOPLABEL. Different people choose different labels to indicate their political beliefs and values. Which of the following best describes you?
(Choose all that apply) (n = 345)

Conservative Republican 47%

Tea Party Republican 13
Independent Republican 19
Moderate Republican 25
Libertarian 7
Constitutionalist 18
Progressive Republican 3
Business Republican 7
Social conservative 12
Religious conservative 29
Economic conservative 18
Pragmatic conservative 8
Liberal Republican 1
Other 5

QPRES16. Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, in the 2016 election for the U.S. President, who did you vote for? (n = 390)

Donald Trump, the Republican candidate 58%

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat candidate 5
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate 2
Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate 1
Evan McMullin, the Independent candidate 28
Someone else 1
I did not vote for anyone for President 6

QPRIM16. Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, in the 2016 Republican primary for U.S. Representative in Utahs 3rd Congressional
District, who did you vote for? (n = 388)

Jason Chaffetz 80%

Chia-Chi Teng 10
Someone else 4
I did not vote for anyone in this primary election 7

QEDOFR. What was the last year of school you completed? (n = 392)

Some high school or less *

High school graduate 4%
Some college 28
College graduate 40
Post-graduate (e.g. MA, MBA, LLD, PhD) 25
Vocational school or technical school 2

Page 10 of 12


QRELIGION. What, if any, is your religious preference? (n = 382)

Mormon or LDS 87%

Protestant (e.g. Baptist, Methodist, etc.) 2
Roman Catholic 2
Jewish <1
Other Christian 4
Muslim/Islamic *
Other non-Christian *
Agnostic/Atheist 2
None 4

(IF QRELIGION Agnostic/Atheist OR None, ASKED QACTIVE ELSE WENT TO QINCOME)

QACTIVE. How active do you consider yourself in the practice of your religious preference? Would you say you are (n = 368)

Very active 84%

Somewhat active 9
Not very active 3
Not active 2
Prefer not to say 2

QINCOME. What do you expect your 2017 family income to be? (n = 369)

Under $25,000 6%
$25,000 34,999 9
$35,000 49,999 8
$50,000 74,999 19
$75,000 99,999 17
$100,000 124,999 16
$125,000 149,999 10
Over $150,000 16

COUNTY. FROM STATE VOTER FILE

Carbon 1%
Emery 1
Grand 2
Salt Lake 31
San Juan 2
Utah 58
Wasatch 5

Page 11 of 12


REGISTEREDPARTY. FROM STATE VOTER FILE

Republican 100%
Democrat --
Independent/Other --

Page 12 of 12