The Lady Tasting Tea

How Statistics

Revolutionized Science

in the

Twentieth Century

19
clockwork universe
Newtons laws of
motionBoyles laws of gases

40
19
Emperor NapolonPierre
Simon Laplace

19

19 40

the planet Neptune

error function

19
determinism
1
2
19

paradigm
20

correlation
oddsrisk


randomnessprobabilitystatistics

unpredictability
Talmud

probability distribution 2

Aristotle

17 18
BernoullisFermat
de MoivrePascalgames of
chance

Laws of large numbers 19

statistics distribution
1971

 Lancet

25% 4
10%

probability distribution function

distribution function

20


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Chapter 01 The Lady Tasting Tea
Chapter 02 The Skew Distribution
Chapter 03 That Dear Mr. Gosset
Chapter 04 Raking Over the Muck Heap
Chapter 05 Studies in Crop Variation
Chapter 06 The Hundred-Year Flood
Chapter 07 Fisher Triumphant
Chapter 08 The Dose That Kills
Chapter 09 The Bell-Shaped Curve
Chapter 10 Testing the Goodness of Fit
Chapter 11 Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 12 The Confidence Trick
Chapter 13 The Bayesian Heresy
Chapter 14 The Mozart of Mathematics
Chapter 15 The Worms-Eye View
Chapter 16 Doing Away With Parameters
Chapter 17 When Part is Better than the Whole
Chapter 18 Does Smoking Cause Cancer
Chapter 19 If You Want the Best Person
Chapter 20 Just A Plain Texas Farm Boy
Chapter 21 A Genius in the Family
Chapter 22 The Pieasso of Statistics
Chapter 23 Dealing with Contamination
Chapter 24 The Man Who Remade Industry
Chapter 25 Advice From the Lady in Black
Chapter 26 The March of the Martingales
Chapter 27 The Intent to Treat
Chapter 28 The Computer Turns Upon Itself
Chapter 29 The Idol With Feet of Clay
 1
20 20

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of Political Murder

1928 Causes of Political

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1933

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1935
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1962

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1953

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1942
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statistical studies
1924

20 30

random variable
accidental magnitude

1956
The Annals of Mathematical
StatisticsSSS. S. Zarkovic



20 30
20
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20 60
distribution-free tests

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1974 48

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1965

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1948

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the Proceedings of Cambridge Philosophical
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1948 Massachusetts
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1959
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infective agent

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1959
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24
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25

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Statistical
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Rutgers University
New JerseyNew Brunswick

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FEverett F. Linquist

Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society

of Edinburgh


Journal
of Educational Psychology

1933

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finite mathematical groups

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Kurt Gdel algebra of
metamathematics

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the Journal of the American Statistical Association

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design
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Annals of Statistics
Annals of Probability


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Applied Statistics30
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30

JRSS-AJRSS-B JRSS-C JRSS-C Applied

A
Statistics

80
28

1964 58 50

SSS. S. Wilks
Medal
real world

21
20 25

14

IJI. J. Good
Goodack
17

35

Whitechapel

Goodack
GoodsCameo Corner

IJ 1916 12 9
Isidore
The Virtuous Isidore

Jack IJ

1993 David Banks

9


10 2
Diophantine
Pells equation

Pythagorean Brotherhood
2 16
10
1993
Hardy 20 2030

12
Aske 31
Hampstead
serve and obey

Smart

31

1448 1689

20

1300

300

19

Jesus College

1941
partial dimension

Bletchley Park

1940

 war has begun

12 06 14 09 06 23 11 19 20 01 13
06

12
14

13

empirical Bayes
hierarchal Bayes methods

University of Manchester

classification theory
closeness

1967
Virginia Polytechnic Institute
1994

Blacksturg

 Persi Diaconis
1945 1 31 IJ
HE
H. E. Dudeney

Martin Gardner Scientific American

Mathematical Recreations

14
5

Dia Vernon



60

Persi Warren

Catskill

200



24

14
City College of New York

Washington High School

Introduction to
Probability Theory and Its Application, Vo1.
William Feller
32

1971 26

32

1974

17
24
100

20
50

1920 1930
20 70

projection pursuit

10
100

90
 30-40

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10 5000
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1950 Richard Bellman

curses of
dimensionality

10 20 10

5000

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22
1966

Tukeys one degree of freedom for
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Tukeys lemma
exploratory data analysis

60

 33



1915 New
Bedford

Brown
University

1939
topology

metamathematics

33

S
1938

1944

Fire
Control Research Office

20 P
Pablo Picasso

50

1945
Murray Hill
1987
Budenbom

5060

21

John Cornfield

60 70

Gregor Mendel

Eric Temple Bell

34

35

34
19401950

Men of Mathematics

1819
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35

Bode's law

aromatic
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exploratory data analysis

histograms

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whiskers
box plots
stem and leaf plots

bit software

4
4 5

20
time serieslinear
models
robust estimation


2000

23

20 80 S
18 19
1907
Albert Michelson
17
Johannes
Kepler

faulty value

1972

16

Robust Estimates of Location:

Survey and Advances

Princeton Robustness Study

robust

36
error

36

error

FDA

FDA
HF


blunders
George Box
robust

Sir John Gaddum

20 20

residual


1986



lewisite

1943

Imperial Chemicals IndustryICI

1948 1956 ICI

Joan

1978

 robust

robustness

the probability of
errorBradley
Efron 1968
t EJG
E. J. G. Pitman

20 60

1972
contaminated
distribution


20%
lazy eye

Monte
37
Carlo

20 50
10
80%

37

 1.
2.

1964

Box-Cox
transformations

 24

1980 NBC

70

NBC
80
WW. Edwards Deming

1939

1947 G
G. Mac Arthur

American way

Ichiro
Ishikawa
JUSE


JUSE

Statistics
Day

1980 NBC

50

50 50
3

3
3 3

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3 1% 6 6
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3
10
13
15

70 zero defect

80
TQM

Out of the Crisis

reliable

special causescommon

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100 000


1920-1930 Walter
ShewhartFrank Youden

1970

Star-Spangled Banner

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University of Wyoming

University of Colorado
Agnes Belle
1927

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38
Hawthorne

AT&T

5%

38

Hawthornee effect
20

30

5%
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30000
1993 12 10
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12 20
11
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11 J E

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25
20
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Judith GoldbergJohnson
PharmaceuticalsPaula Norwood
Mavis Carroll
General Foods
Census
Bureauthe Bureau of Labor Statistics
the National Center for Health Statistics

19

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1976 11 12

30 London School of
Economics

the Danish Bacon Company

Roterdam

Bergen-Belsen

the Guinness Brewing Company

3
S
10

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1946

7








Newcastle


queuing theory




3
7

1970
the British Home Office

10 15%

P
0.001





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65

1886

Lyce Saint Louis

1912 26

33

1919

FOLK

theorem

Lindeberg 20 30

1.

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martingale
martingale

50%50%
Martingale

Martingale

Martique

1940

1970 the University of

OsloOdd Aalen

20 80 Aarhus
UniversityErik Anderson
University of UtrechtRichard Gill
1

20

Richard Olshen
Lee-Jen Wei

20 80

27
20 80
Rechard Peto

5
Aalen
martingale approach

20 50

M. C. Anderson Hospital
Edmund Gehan

A
A
A A
A A

intert to treat

39

39
1963 Francis Anscombe

P
P

Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference

P

1977 R 23

P
significance testing

hypothesis testing
P

W
P

evolutionary variation
in operationsEVOP

analysis of
variance

K
method of moments
P

Abraham Wald

sequential analysis

20 60
Baltimore

20 80 90
Donald Rubin

A B

1980


boot-strap

28
Guido Castelnuovo

1915 University of
Rome

1919

 Calcolo della probabilit e applicazioni

1927
The
School of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences 20
30

1922 Benito Mussolini

40 7
1935
70

1952

87

40

1939 Bruno de Finetti

the University of Trieste

Corrado GiniIstituto
Centrale Statistica in Rome

20 30

Francesco Paolo Cantelli18751966

18
1916

the Glivenko-Cantelli Lemma41

41
18 Elementsformal mathematics

theorem

lemma

Joseph
Glivenko
Stieltjes integral
1933

empirical distribution function

20

20

20 50 60 70
80

 1982 Bradley
Efron Bootstrap

1982

resampling

computer-intensive

20 60 the National Bureau of

StandardsJoan Rosenblatt
Texas A&M UniversityEmmanuel
Parzen
kernel density estimation
kernel density-based regression estimation
kernel
bandwidth 1967

John van Ryzin

fuzzy
approximation nonoptimal
kernel

Bart Kosko

19
Gottfried Wilhelm von Leibniz

Norbert Wiener

the theory of kernel-based regression

20

70

42

20

42

compound-Poisson distribution

stuttering PoissonPoisson-binomial

Fifth Avenue bus distribution


K

29
1962 Thomas Kuhn
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

19

19


19
Lambert Adolphe Jacques Qutelet

optimum estimation

1 2

risk analysis

65% 3%
65% 3%
95%

correlation
correlated

underlying assumption

16 Girolamo
Cardano Ars Magna

16

500

1.
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3.

LL. Jonathan Cohen

Pascalian
1989
An Introduction to the
Philosophy of Induction and Probability

Wesleyan University in Middletown Connecticut

Seymour Kyberg

0.0001
10000 1

A B C ABC

the Probable and the
Probable
common law

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1000
499 1000

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1000 1499

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21

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permutation test

The U. S. Supreme Court

 20 80
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Carnegie Mellon University

Stephen Fienbergthe
University of Minnesota Samuel
Krislov 1988

LJ
1954
The Foundations of Statistics

95% 72%

1921
 A Treatise on Probability

72% 68%

partial ordering

1921

Hebrew University
Daniel KahnemanAmos Tversky

 20 70 80
P
P. Slovic

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

5050

90% 75%

1974

Patrick Suppes

improper distributions

queuing theory

21

21

20 70

fuzzy
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20

W. H. Freeman
Don Gecewicz
Eleanor Wedge Vivien Weiss
Patrick Farace Victoria
TomaselliBill PageKaren BarrMeg Kuhta Julia Derosa



1857 KKarl Pearson
G Guido
1865
Castelnuovo

1866 GGregor Mendel

FPFrancesco Paolo
1875
Cantelli
W S
1876
William Sealy Gosset
1886 PPaul Lvy
RAPonald Aylmer
1890
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PCParasanta
1893
Chandra Mahalanobis
1893 HHarald Cramr
1894 JJerzy Neyman
1895 K
E S Egon S.
1895 S
Pearson
1899 CChester Bliss
GMGertrude M.
1900 M
Cox

1900 WW. Bateson

 1

Biometrika FF. Galton
K
1902
1 RR. Weldon
ANAndrei
1903
Nikolaevich Kolmogorov
SSSamuel S.
1906 S
Wilks

The probable Error of the
1908 WS
Mean t
students t-test
F N Florence
1909
Nightingale David
1911 FFrancis Galton
The
1911 K
Grammar of Science
J Jerome
1912
Cornfield
1912 RA
correlation
1915 RA
coefficient
1915 JJohn Tukey

1916 Glivenko-Cantelli lemma FP

 2

L J L. J.
1917 LJ
Jimmie Savage
Calcotlo G G.
1919
della probabilit Castelnuovo

1919 Rothamsted Experimental RA
Station
Lebesgue
1920 HH. Lebesgue
integration
A Treatise J M J. M.
1921
on Probability Keynes

1921 RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1923 RA
Studies in Crop Variation.

1924 RA
Studies in Crop Variation.
The
Elimination of mental Defect
1924 RA



1925 Statistical Methods for RA
Research Workers
 3


1925 RA
ML Estimation

1926 RA


1927 RA
Studies in Crop Variation.
Neyman
Pearson
1928 JES
hypothesis testing

LHCTippett
1928
RA

1928 RA
Studies in Crop Variation.
Annals of
1930 Mathematical Statistics HH. Carver

The
1930 Genetical Theory of Natural RA
Selection
Indian PCP. C.
1931
Statistical Institute Mahalanobis
1933 AN

Sankhya
1933 PC

 4

probit analysis
1933 CC.Bliss

S SSSamuel
1933
Princeton S. Wilks
confidence
1934 J
intervals
central limit
1934 PJ
theorem

1934 Leningrad Institute CChester Bliss
for Plant Protection
martingale theory
1935 P

The Design of
1935 RA
Experiments
1936 K
MM. Hansen
1937
FF. Stephan
1937 WS

Statistical Tables for RAF
1938
Biological Agricultural and F. Yates
Medical Research
Statistical GWG. W.
1940
Methods Snedecor
 5

H Henri
1941
Lebesgue

Mathematical Methods of
1945 H
Statistics


1945 F


1947 A
sequential estimation theory
MannWhitney HGDR
1947

EJGE. J.
1948
G. Pitman
WGW. G.
1949
Cochran
WGGM
1950

G
1952
Guido Castelnuovo
1957 RA
Statistics of E J
1958
Extremes EJGumbel
rebust GEPG. E.
1959
P. Box
 6

1959 ELE. L. Lehmann
Combinatorial FNDE
1960
Chance D. E. Barton
Savage-de LJB
1962
Finetti B. de Finetti

1962 RA

1962 RA
1964 S SS
An analysis of GEPDR
1964
transformations D. R. Cox

1966 FP

1967 JJ. Hjek
YMMY. M. M.
1969
Bishop

reliability theory
1970 NNancy Mann
Weibull distribution


1970 Games Gods and FN
Gambling
 7

1971 P
1971 LJ LJ
D F D. F.
Andrews PJP.
J. BickelFRF.

1972 R. Hampel PJP.

J. Huber WH
W. H. RogersJW
J. W. Tukey

1972 PC


S V Stella
1975 Royal Statistical
Cunliffe
Society

1976 GEP

1977 DR

1977 Exploratory Data Analysis J

1978 M GM
1979 C
1979 J
 7


1979 Bureau of Labor JJanet Norwood
Statistics
1980 S ES
1981 J
chaos theory
RR. Abraham
1982
CC. Shaw
AA. Tversky
1983
DD. Kahneman
1985 H

1987 AN

Kernel based
1987 regression TT. Yamakawa

LJ
1989 LJL. J. Cohen


1990 Spline Models for GG. Wahba
Observational Data
OO. Aalen E

1992 E. AndersonR

R. Gill
 7


1995 FN

Cochrans
CC. Jennison
1997 methods BWB. W.
sequential analysis Turnbull
R A R. A.
EM
BetenskyJCJ.
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C. LindseyLM

L. M. Ryan
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