IP Advanced Training

Paul Spooner
IP Product Champion
Curve Prediction
 Curve Prediction

Curve Prediction included 4 separate modules:

Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
Fuzzy Logic
Neural Networks (NN)
Principle Component Analysis (PCA)

MLR, Fuzzy Logic and NN are predictive models

Input a curve to predict (e.g. density, sonic, permeability, facies), along with
the curves to predict from (e.g. raw logs, petrophysical results, core data etc)
Build a model to predict DTS from GR, RHOB & TNPH using wells that
have DTS and apply it in all wells that have GR, RHOB & TNPH
Build a model to predict RHOB from GR, DTC, TNPH using good hole
and apply it in bad hole
Predict perm from PHIE and VWCL using core and apply it in all wells
Predict facies from GR, RHOB, PEF, TNPH and DTC using core facies
and apply it in all wells.
 Data Selection

All of the modules share the same

Input screen and can be loaded from
any other saved model. E.g. if you
have set up a multi-well MLR you
can use that to set up a Fuzzy Logic
model without having to re-type all
the inputs

Select wells to use

Select curve to predict
Select curves to use as input
Select intervals
Apply discriminators if required

Log - takes log10 of the curve before

using it. For logarithmic data (e.g.
core perm) this improves the
predicted results
Curve Prediction
Multiple Linear Regression
 Multiple Linear Regression

MLR is effectively a linear

regression on a multi-dimensional
crossplot.
Run to build the model
Uses standard [matrix] algebra to
solve for the coefficients.
Normalised coefficients are also
output to show the relative
contribution of each input log.
The model is linear formula which
can be saved separately
PERMCORE = 10^(2.94911289 0.71861919 * RHOB +
0.01103566*DTLN 0.03993799 * SGR + 7.1741403 * TNPH)
Multiple Linear Regression - Permeability

Run Model to apply the

formula to all wells
selected

Because it is just a linear

formula, Multiple Linear
Regression can predict
outside the range of the
is curve to predict
This may be considered
as beyond the range of
calibration
The result may need to
be manually clipped
Curve Prediction
Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy logic is the logic of partial truths

The statement, today is sunny
100% true if there are no clouds
80% true if there are a few clouds
50% true if it's hazy
0% true if it rains all day

This is mathematics of probabilities

If we can work out the probability of each event outcome then we can
predict the most likely result

More details read The Application of the Mathematics of Fuzzy Logic to

Petrophysics - Steve Cuddy
Fuzzy Logic

Two basic modes of prediction depending on input data.

Fixed value input data: Facies
Continuous value data: Log curves, Core permeability

Reproduces the dynamic range better than linear regression

Cannot predict beyond the range of the curve to predict
Based on mean and standard deviation of all the data
 Fuzzy Logic - Facies Model Build

Sort all the input curves by binning the

curve to predict
In this case there are 6 facies
Generate data statistics for each bin
Mean and Standard deviation
Statistics give us the most probable result
by input curve
Fuzzy Logic - Prediction

Calculate the probability for each curve for each bin (in this case facies)

Combine probabilities harmonically

Probabilities are weighted by input distribution

Result is the highest combined probability

Fuzzy Logic - Equations

Probability calculated for each bin for each curve

C b / 2 b2
2

P ( Cb ) nb e
Where
P(Cb) : The probability that curve C is in bin 'b'.
nb : The number samples in bin 'b'.
C : The input value for curve C.
b : The mean value for curve C for bin 'b'.
: The standard deviation for curve C for bin 'b'.
b

Combined probability
1 1 1 1
....
Pb P ( C1b ) P ( C 2 b ) P ( C 3b )
Where
Pb : The total probability for bin 'b'.
P(C1b) : The probability for curve C1 for bin 'b'.
Fuzzy Logic - Permeability

Data is divided up into equal sampled bins

Statistics run for each bin
Fuzzy Logic - Permeability

Output curves:
Most Likely
2nd Most Likely
Weighted Average
 Fuzzy Logic - Permeability

Example of predicting
Core Permeability
using GR, RHOB,
TNPH and DT

The Most Likely and

2nd Most Likely
curves are bins,
i.e. they are
stepped curves

The weighted
Average is a
smooth curve
Curve Prediction
Neural Networks
 Neural Networks

Neural Networks use a back-propagation learning technique

The model is built by training
The user interactively selects the data to train on
It is usually better to use many small intervals, each representing a
particular rock type, geology or facies
You need to capture an example of all the variety in the data
It can predict beyond the range of the curve to predict
A random number generator is used in the initialization, so if you build two
models with exactly the same data they will be different
It is a learning technique so subsequent training runs improve the model
each time you train it
But it can be over-trained and then it will get worse
So it can very difficult to know when to stop training (there is always a better
model in there somewhere!).
Neural Networks - Permeability

Requires Training Zones zone set

Interactive plot for picking training data

launched from Model Build Show Plot

Usually use several small intervals

Default 5 samples, may need to increase
Option to take the average for each zone
Classification Network used for discrete data
such as facies (maximum of 10 classes )
 Neural Networks - Permeability

Training zones interactively

selected in zone track
Train and Undo
Undo only while the plot is
open

Run Model to apply model to all wells

Discrete data such as facies will need
to be rounded if a Classification
network was not used
Curve Prediction
Principal Component Analysis
 Principal Component Analysis

Principal component analysis is a

technique used to reduce multi-
dimensional data sets to lower
dimensions for analysis

Principal component curves can

also be used for various tasks like
multi-well tops correlation, facies
analysis and regression analysis
 Principal Component Analysis

Data is normalized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the std devn.
In this example 58.6% of the data variability is in PC1 and 34.3% in PC2, i.e.
they contain 95% of the variability in 2 curves without any loss of information.
PC curves are calculated from the Eigen vectors, listed in the report, by
multiplying the normalized curves by the Eigen value and summing all inputs
e.g. PC1 = 0.0122 (RHOB 2.3411) / 0.1052
+ 0.5495 (DTLN 83.9174) / 5.5546
+ 0.6314 (TNPH 0.2438) / 0.1030
+ 0.5470 (SGR 55.1888) / 31.1928