800-121 Food for a Healthy Planet

Climate change and global

food security
Professor Snow Barlow, ATSE,FAIAST
Impacts of climate change on global food security

N 2O
CH4
CO2

Atmosphere-100 km

Global warming

Future climate change

Impacts agricultural systems

Impacts on global emissions

The Globe is Warming

1961-1990 Climate
Australia is warming faster

1961-1990 Climate
Australias food bowl
warming even faster

1961-1990 Climate
 42.18oC
the hottest national temp ever recorded in March
 February 2016
globally the hottest Feb on record
 The cause
greenhouse gas molecules
In 1859, John Tyndall tested
whether the atmosphere absorbs
infrared radiation, and whether this
might be the reason why the Earth
was warmer than expected:

He found that pure atmosphere,

consisting only of oxygen and
nitrogen, did nothing to block
infrared radiation.

When he added a small amount of

water vapour, carbon dioxide
(CO2), and methane (CH4), his
artificial atmosphere blocked the
infrared radiation.

http://www.eo.ucar.edu/kids/index.html (Reisinger 2010)

 Greenhouse gases heat the globe

5. Greenhouse gases absorb some of this

2. The rest is either radiation, warming the lower atmosphere. This
reflected back into absorption of heat, which keeps the surface of
space by the our planet warm enough to sustain life, is called
atmosphere or the greenhouse effect.
absorbed by gases
and dust particles. 6. Without heat trapping
1. About half of the
gases in our atmosphere,
suns energy the Earths surface
reaching the top of
our atmosphere
temperature would be, on
penetrates to the average, -18C rather than
Earths surface.
the +15C we currently
experience. At -18C no life !

3. The solar energy that 4. The land and

does reach the Earths oceans release heat
surface warms the land and in the form of
oceans. infrared radiation.
Major Greenhouse Gas Carbon Dioxide is rising
at an ever increasing rate
 All Greenhouse Gases
contributions to Global Warming

Global Warming Potential

Carbon Dioxide =1

Methane =25

Nitrous Oxide =311

 Sources of greenhouse gases
Where do they go ?
Sources and Sinks for Carbon Dioxide
 Future Climate Change

What will the world look and feel like in the future ?
Global Growth and Emission Scenarios

A1FI: Fossil intensive energy

sources

A1B: Balanced fossil/

Non-fossil energy sources

B1: Clean resource

efficient technologies
 At Current Emissions growth rate we are heading for
4-6 C in 2100

4.06.1C in 2100
Historical
16
2012 Estimate
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Fossil-fuel, cement production, and gas flaring emissions (PgC/yr)

14 RCP6 RCP3-PD
Historical uncertainty
Earlier scenarios 2.63.7C
in 2100
12
2.03.0C
in 2100
10

4
1.31.9C
in 2100
2

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(Peters et al. 2012a;Global Carbon Project 2012;)

 Paris Agreement
has given hope but much to do

If we cant all swim together, we will sink.

There is no Plan B,
because there is no Planet B.

Ban Ki-Moon,
Secretary-General, United Nations
 Global Climate Change -2100

Hotter on land than on oceans

Warms more at higher latitudes

( poles) than the equator

No country spared

Will strongly influence the

hydrologic (water) cycles

More floods and more droughts

Changes in global climates will be greater -if NO agreement on emissions

 Responses of agricultural systems
to climate change

Carbon Dioxide
Plants respond to elevated CO2
Temperature
Timing
High temperature damage
Increased water loss
Frost
Water
Irrigation water
Higher water requirement
Changed disease risks
 Australia is/will be strongly affected by
Global climate change
2030 Australian climates Hotter and drier
Temperature will increase by 0.9C to 1.1C

highest increase in Summer

rainfall around 3% less per annum
largest reduction in Spring (6%)
15% reduction in runoff water in rivers !!-
ALSO

Potential evapotranspiration will increase by 4% -crops will need

more water
Increase in extreme events
Number of hot days (days > 35C) to rise
Storms to increase
Frost damage
Bushfires
Increasing CO2 can increase
crop yields
 Crop Responces to CO2
field peas

Pea cultivar % increase

2010 2011 2012

Bohatyr -- 2 55

Kaspa 18 37 49

OZP0902 50 9 36

Twilight 33 0 29

Sturt 19 25 31

Mean 27 14 40
 Impact of climate change on world food
supply

Yields in mid to high latitudes:

Increase (By 2080s/IS 92a)
Yields in low latitudes:
Decrease (By 2080s/IS 92a)

(i) the region of greatest risk is Africa

(ii) Disparity will tend to become larger
(iii) Agricultural regions may shift
(iv)Population movements/environmental refugees???

Ref: Houghton, 2004

 Climate Change changes our
capacity to produce food
% impact per decade globally for major cereal crops

(IPCC- AR5 2014)

Food production has significant
greenhouse gas costs
 Food production also contributes to
climate change

Global Agric emissions: 9

billion tonnes of CO2 eq

7

6
5.2 Gt CO2e/yr in 1990(100)
5
6.1 Gt CO2e/yr in 2005(117) 4

17% increase 3

2
9.8 Gt CO2e/yr in 2030(188)
1
60% increase 0
1990 2005 2030

Smith et al (2007); US-EPA (2006)

Animal production
high emission costs

Ruminant animals

Are able to digest

cellulose grass

They utilize the worlds

grasslands

Methane is a byproduct
of cellulose digestion
 Typical Farm Emissions
N2O -
N2O -
Indirect
Dung, Urine
1%
3% 0%

N2O - N
Fertiliser
0%
CH4 -
Manure
0%

CH4 -
Enteric
96%

Dairy
3 - 7 t CO 2 e/cow N-Beef
4 45 t CO 2 e/ha 2 t CO2e/AU
8 21 t CO 2 e/t MS 0.12 t CO 2 e/ha
14 t CO2e/t beef

Grains
0.2 - 1 t CO2e/ha
0.04 t/CO2e/t grain
(Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Browne et al. 2011)
 Changes in Animal Diets

Diet
Can reduce CH4 and change rumen biota
Tropical legumes, alternative & novel forages
& plant extracts
Plant and algae fats, tannins and essential oils
Leucaena, Desmanthus, Eremophila glabra most
potent
Brassica, chicory, grape marc
Nitrate supplementation
Crushed wheat
 Can we change our diet ?

Assuming 27% caloric intake from animal

sources
Vegetarian diet saves = 1 to 1.5 t CO2e/y
Comparisons
Camry to Prius = 1.1 t CO2e/y
SUV to Camry = 2.5 t CO2e/y
SUV to Prius = 3.6 t CO2e/y
Transport choice = Diet choice
 Lecture Summary
The globe is warming due to GHG emissions
Future climate change will be more extreme
Different regions of the globe will be more
affected than others
Australian food production will be impacted
Food production responsible for significant
GHG emissions
Increases in food production and dietary
changes will increase emissions
There are lifestyle choices to be made