Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

CHAPTER-2

POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND

2.1. PRESENT POPULATION

The development of a particular city, town or a region depends upon natural, physical and
socio-economic factors. Among these factors the population assumes significance in
determining the future pattern of progress and development.

Sikkim underwent many changes in its economy and demography after it joined the national
mainstream. There was considerable increase in developmental activities, which caused a
growth in urbanization. The population of Sikkim was slightly higher than 5, 40,000 in 2001
as against 4, 06,000 in 1991. Sex ratio of Sikkim was much lower (875 females) than the
national average (933 females).Population changes from 1951 to 2001 show a growth of 3.9
times in Sikkim.

Table 2.1: Demographic Profile of Sikkim

`
Census Year Total Population Rural Population Urban Population
1951 1,37,725 1,34,981 2,744
1961 1,62,189 1,55,341 6,848
1971 2,09,843 1,90,175 19,668
1981 3,16,385 2,64,301 51,084
1991 4,06,457 3,69,473 37,006
2001 5,40,851 4,80,981 59,870
Source: District Census Handbook 1951, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and Primary Census
Abstract 2001,Census of India.

Gangtok, the capital city of Sikkim is located in the East District and lies between 27 21 to
27 16 N latitude and 88 37 longitude with an altitude of 5500 ft above mean sea level.
Gangtok is connected by National Highway (31-A) to Siliguri, which is a major town in the
North of West Bengal. The nearest airport and railhead near Siliguri is 117 kms from
Gangtok.

The total area of Gangtok covered under this project is around 2112.11 hectare. This area
falls under the following revenue blocks Penlong, Burtuk, Sichey, Chandmari, Rongyek,
Gangtok (includes Rajbhavan), Tathangchen, Tadong, Syari and Samdur.
This report is prepared considering the population of Gangtok in 2001 as 82149. The ward
wise a breakup of population of the project area is given in Table 2.2.This excludes the
tourist population.

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Table 2.2: Ward wise Population (2001) of the Project Area

Wards Population (2001) Area (In Hectare)

Penlong 1553 72.5

Burtuk 4188 254.38

Sichey 7352 321.57

Chandmari 2744 69.17

Rongyek 1114 37.63

Tathangchen 2308 139.29

Tadong 19599 292.23

Syari 3015 475.57

Samdur 4902 102.54

Gangtok 35374 347.23

Total 82149 2112.11

The historical growth rate has been derived based on the past decadal population of
Gangtok given in Table 2.3 as per Census figures.

Table 2.3 Population of Gangtok as per 1961, 1971, 81, 91, & 2001 Census
Year Population
1961 6848
1971 13308
1981 36747
1991 58242
2001 82149
.
The Population forecast of Gangtok Project Area has been arrived at based on the methods
laid down in the Manual on Water Supply and Treatment published by the Ministry of Urban
Development, Govt. of India.
2.2. POPULATION FORECAST

The design population is estimated with due regard to all factors governing the future growth
and development of the project area in the industrial, commercial, educational, social and
administrative spheres. Special factors causing sudden emigration or influx of population
should also be foreseen to the extent possible.

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

The population for Gangtok has been estimated on the basis of following methods as given
in the CPHEEO Manual:

a) Arithmetical progression method

b) Incremental increase method
c) State urban increase method
d) Geometrical increase method
e) Graphical method

a) Arithmetical Progression Method:

Year Population Increase
(X)
1961 6848
1971 13308 6460
1981 36747 23439
1991 58242 21495
2001 82149 23907
Total 75301
Average 18825

Population in 2010 = Population In 2001 + increase for 0.9 decades

= 82149+ (0.9 x 18825)
= 82149 + 16943
= 99092

Population in 2025 = Population In 2001 + increase for 2.4 decades

= 82149+ (2.4x18825)
= 82149 + 45181
= 127330

Population in 2040 = Population In 2001 + increase for 3.9 decades

= 82149+ (3.9 x 18825)

= 82149+ 73418
= 155567

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

b) Incremental Increase Method:

Year Population Increase Incremental
(X) Increase(Y)
1961 6848
1971 13308 6460
1981 36747 23439 16979
1991 58242 21495 -1944
2001 82149 23907 2412
Total 75301 17447
Average 18825 5816

Population in 2010 = Population in 2001+0.9x18825+0.9(1+0.9)/2x5816

= 82149+ 0.9x18825+ 0.9(1+0.9)/2x 5816
= 104064

Population in 2025 = 82149+ 0.9x18825+ 0.9(1+0.9)/2x 5816

= 151058

Population in 2040 = 82149+ 3.9 x 18825 + 3.9(1+3.9)/2 x 5816

= 211136

c) Geometrical Increase Method:

Rate of growth per decade between
1971 and 1961 0.943
1981 and 1971 1.761
1991 and 1981 0.585
2001 and 1991 0.410
Geometric mean, rg = (0.943 x 1.761 x 0.585 x 0.410)1/4
= 0.79

Population in 2010 = Population in 2001 x (1+rg)0.9

= 82149 x (1+0.79).9
= 82149 x 1.6928
= 139060

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Population in 2025 = 82149 (1+0.79)2.4

= 82149 x 4.07

= 334353

Population in 2040 = 82149 (1+0.79)3.9

= 82149 x 9.786

= 803911

d) State Urban Average Method:

Average Percentage Increase per decade (uavg)
= (94.33 + 176.13 + 58.49 + 41.05)/ 4
= 68.92

Population in 2010 = Population in 2001 + (Population in 2001 x uavg x 0.9)/ 100

= 82149 + (82149 x 68.92 x 0.9)/100

= 133102

Population in 2025 = 82149 + (82149 x 68.92 x 2.4)/100

= 218025

Population in 2040 = 82149 + (82149 x 68.92 x 3.9)/100

= 302947

e) Graphical Method :
Population in 2010 = 1,10,000

Population in 2025 = 1,50,000

Population in 2040 = 1,90,000

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Figure: 2.1 Population Projections by Graphical Method

The summary of the population forecast is tabulated in Table 2.4

Table 2.4: Population forecast for project area by various methods

Airthematic Incremental Geometric State Urban Graphical

Progression Increase Increase Average Method
Year Method Method Method Method
2010 99092 104064 139060 133102 110000
2025 127330 151058 334353 218025 150000
2040 155567 211136 803911 302947 190000

It is evident from the table that the population forecast by Arithmetic Increase Method is
lowest. The Graphical Method is around average of all the four methods except Geometrical
Increase Method, while the higher values obtained from geometrical increase method may
be attributed to the job opportunities which Gangtok offers. Hence, for ward-wise population
projections and design population Graphical method figures are used.

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

2.3. DESIGN POPULATION

The design population considered is presented in Table 2.5
Table-2.5 Design Population for Base, Mid-design and Design Years

Year Total Tourist Population Design Population

Population (Staying in Hotels)
2010 Base Year 110000 10000 120000
2025 - Mid Design Year 150000 20000 170000
2040 Design Year 190000 30000 220000

The Project Area has been divided into 10 Wards and ward wise population provided by the
Census(2001) has been adopted for projected densities.

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Table-2.6 Ward wise Projected Densities and Population

Wards Area Year 2001 Year 2010 Year 2025 Year 2040

Density Density Density Density

((In ((In ((In ((In
Population* Population Population Population
person/ person/ person/ person/
hectare) hectare) hectare) hectare)

Penlong 72.50 1553 21 2182 30 3082 43 4370 60

Burtuk 254.38 4188 16 7213 28 10133 40 13933 55

Sichey 321.57 7352 23 9999 31 14498 45 17760 55

Chandmari 69.17 2744 40 4186 61 6070 88 7436 108

Rongyek 37.63 1114 30 1515 40 2083 55 2552 68

Tathangchen 139.29 2308 17 3554 26 5107 37 7283 52

Tadong 292.23 19599 67 26656 91 38802 133 54020 185

Syari 475.57 3015 6 5206 11 7939 17 10701 23

Samdur 102.54 4902 48 6226 61 8082 79 9900 97

Gangtok 347.23 35374 102 53263 153 74203 214 92046 265

Total 2112.11 82149 120000 170000 220000

*Source: Census

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

2.4. WATER DEMAND

Water demand for Gangtok has been estimated based on the guidelines laid down in
Manual for Water Supply and Treatment published by Ministry of Urban Development, Govt
of India.

The recommendations as per CPHEEO Table No. 2.1, which is reproduced as Table 2.7
below:
Table 2.7: Recommendations as per CPHEEO

S.No. Classification of Towns/Cities Recommended Max.

Water Supply (lpcd)
Towns provided with piped water supply
1 70
but without sewerage system
Cities provided with piped water supply
2 where sewerage system is 135
existing/contemplated
Metropolitan and mega cities provided
3 with piped water supply where sewerage 150
system is existing/contemplated
Note:
1. In Urban areas, where water is provided through public stand post, 40 lpcd
should be considered.
2. Figures exclude unaccounted for water (UFW) which should be limited to
15%.
3. Figures include requirements of water for commercial, institutional and minor
industries. However the bulk supply to such establishments should be assessed
separately with proper justification.

Gangtok is the capital of the state of Sikkim and is the most important economic centre in
the state. It is provided with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/
contemplated. In view of the above, the per capita water supply for Gangtok has been taken
as 135 lpcd + 15% Losses.

Table 2.8: Water Demand

Year Design Population Water Demand (135 lpcd + 15

% losses) MLD
2010 Base Year 120000 18.6
2025 - Mid Design Year 170000 26.4
2040 Design Year 220000 34.2

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 Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Table-2.9 Ward wise Water Demand

Wards Year 2010 Year 2025 Year 2040

Total Water Total Water Total Water
Demand MLD Demand MLD Demand MLD
Penlong 2182 0.3 3082 0.5 4370 0.7
Burtuk 7213 1.1 10133 1.6 13933 2.2
Sichey 9999 1.6 14498 2.3 17760 2.8
Chandmari 4186 0.6 6070 0.9 7436 1.2
Rongyek 1515 0.2 2083 0.3 2552 0.4
Tathangchen 3554 0.6 5107 0.8 7283 1.1
Tadong 26656 4.1 38802 6.0 54020 8.4
Syari 5206 0.8 7939 1.2 10701 1.7
Samdur 6226 1.0 8082 1.3 9900 1.5
Gangtok 53263 8.3 74203 11.5 92046 14.3
Total 120000 18.6 170000 26.4 220000 34.2

It has been generally observed in the hilly areas that most of the growth is along the main
roads of the city. First, the areas along the main road are occupied and gradually population
pockets start occupying the areas off the road. It has also been found that huge patches of
land remain unoccupied just because they are far from the road. Hence, for design purposes
population catered to per meter of pipe laid for each ward is used for pipe sizing etc.

Ward Number Ward Name Road length in Mtrs

1 PENLONG WARD 510.30
2 BURTUK WARD 429.00
3 SICHEY WARD 2651.70
4 CHANDMARI WARD 194.00
5 RONGYEK WARD 240.80
6 TATHANGCHEN WARD 492.80
7 TADONG WARD 480.10
8 SYARI WARD 1297.8
9 SAMDUR WARD 1303.90
10 GANGTOK WARD 153.90
Total 7754.3

Water Security & Public Health Engineering Department 2-10