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Key Metrics - Time Series Projection

1 2 3 4 5 6
6 month History
Key Metric t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1
Average cost per order 500 450 430 420 415 410
Average Yield per order 650 645 655 658 662 665
Metric 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Metric 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Metric 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

Usage Notes
1 Identify the key metrics that you want to track over time. Type them into Column 13 of the
table under "Key Metric".
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2 Enter values for your key metrics for the last 6 months
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3 Enter your Goal / target value, if you have established one. (Column K) 16000000
4 Observe the averge monthly rate of change over the last 6 months (Column J). 14000000
5 Observe the projected values for the specified metric over the coming 6 months based upon 12000000
the best fitting of either a linear or exponential regression of the prior 6 months' values.
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(Columns L-Q).
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6 Assess whether your recent historical trends for your key metrics are moving you in a
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favorable or an unfavorable direction. Act accordingly.
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7 Note: If your Key Metrics figures have been very volatile recently, then the usefulness of the
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projection may be limited.
8 If the relative size of different key metrics varies greatly, then the chart at right will appear 0
flat for those metrics with lower orders of magnitude. -6

Metric -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Average cost per order 500 450 430 420 415 410
Average Yield per order 650 645 655 658 662 665
Metric 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Metric 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Metric 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.6857142857
Avg Mthly Goal Projected values for next 6 months
Change % Value t+0 t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5
-18.0% 375 17,519.4 70,751.5 285,727.8 ### ### ###
2.3% 680 1,064.4 1,216.4 1,368.5 1,520.5 1,672.6 1,824.7
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Key Metrics - Time Series Projection


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18000000
16000000
14000000
Average cost per order
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Average Yield per order
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Metric 3
8000000 Metric 4
6000000 Metric 5
4000000
2000000
0
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Relative Month

0 1 2 3 4 5
17,519.4 70,751.5 285,727.8 ### ### ###
1,064.4 1,216.4 1,368.5 1,520.5 1,672.6 1,824.7
Time to
Goal (mos)
1.4
4.1
Subscription Model

Key Metrics Notes


Total Cost ($/mo) $ 30,000 Total business cost
Total Revenue ($/mo) $ 68,000 Total monthly revenue
Total Subscribers at beginning of month 15,750 Total number of subscribers at beginning of month
New subscribers added 3,000 New sign-ups
Subscriber drop-out 900 Existing subscribers who dropped out
Average subscriber retention (months) 9 How long are subscribers staying? Indicator of perc
Distinct referring URL's 211 From where are visitors coming? Who are the best-
% of traffic from top 20 referring search terms 19.3% From where are visitors coming? What are the best

Key Submetrics
Net 30-day change in Total Subscribers $ 2,100 Net change in subscriber base
Monthly revenue per active subscriber $ 4.32 Track over time.
Monthly Yield per new subscriber $ 22.67 Revenue per new sign-up. Track over time.
Monthly Cost per new subscriber $ 10.00 Cost per sign-up. Should decline over time. Econom
Monthly Profit per new subscriber $ 12.67 Track over time.

This sheet provides the essential metrics you need to consider for your site.
ubscribers at beginning of month

rs who dropped out


scribers staying? Indicator of perceived value.
sitors coming? Who are the best-performing referers? Nurture them.
sitors coming? What are the best-performing search terms?

scriber base

sign-up. Track over time.


Should decline over time. Economy of scale
Retail Products

Key Metrics Notes


Total Cost $ 87,211 Total business cost
Total Revenue $ 118,350 Total monthly revenue
Total Orders 750 Total number of orders processed for the month
Unique Customers 687 Number of distinct customers who ordered
Unique Site Visitors 22,421 Number of distinct visitors to the site.
Distinct referring URL's 125 From where are visitors coming? What are the be
% of traffic from top 20 referring search terms 19.3% From where are visitors coming? What are the be

Key Submetrics
Monthly Profit $ 31,139.00
Monthly Profit per Order $ 41.52
Average Order Value $ 157.80 What does the average order bring in revenue?
Average Cost per Order $ 116.28 What does the average order cost me to deliver?
Average Site Conversion (Visitor --> Order) 3.3% How well is my site converting visitors to orders?

This sheet provides the essential metrics you need to consider for your site.
ders processed for the month
customers who ordered
visitors to the site.
sitors coming? What are the best-performing referers? Nurture them.
sitors coming? What are the best-performing search terms?

erage order bring in revenue?


erage order cost me to deliver?
e converting visitors to orders?
Services

Key Metrics
Total Cost $ 12,100.00 Total business cost
Total Revenue $ 19,350.00 Total monthly revenue
Total new leads 25 New leads for the month.
Total new contracts closed 3 New contracts closed for the month.
Sales Cycle - elapsed time (days) 19 Time from initial lead to contract closed.

Key Submetrics
Monthly Profit $ 7,250.00
Monthly Profit per Contract $ 290.00
Average Revenue per Lead $ 774.00
Average Cost per Lead $ 484.00
Average Conversion (Leads --> Contracts) 12.0%

This sheet provides the essential metrics you need to consider for your site.
When you cut through all the confusion, there are really only four elements you can measure:
1. The AMOUNT of activity on your site - page views, visitor sessions, returning visitors, etc.

2. The SOURCE of that activity - referrers, search terms, languages, countries, organizations, etc.

3. The NATURE of that activity - entry pages, exit pages, browsers, platforms, JavaScript versions,
cookie support, screen resolutions, page refreshes, page load errors, average time per page, etc.
4. The RESULTS of that activity - click trails, most requested pages, number of page views, signups,
orders, etc.

Organizing questions:

Question: Related Metrics


1. Who visited my website? Unique Visitors
2. From where did they come? Referring URLs, Referring Search Phrases
3. What pages did they view? # Entry Pages, # Page Views, Average Time on Pages,
Page Views per Visitor
4. Did they have any trouble with my site? Browser Versions Platform Versions
5. What did they buy or sign-up for? Orders (average amount, number, total revenue) Sign-
Ups
an measure:
visitors, etc.

organizations, etc.

avaScript versions,
me per page, etc.
page views, signups,

rch Phrases
Average Time on Pages,

sions
ber, total revenue) Sign-
Cost per _____ (CPx)
Yield per _____ (YPx)

Business Model

Company's key measure of success (x) visitor


(e.g. visitor, sale, enrollment, subscription)

Yield elements
Total Monthly Revenue $ - $ -
Number of visitors (visitors/mo): $ -
Revenue per visitor ($/visitor/mo): $ -

Cost elements

Non-marketing costs ($/mo)


Facilities Element Group Category
Rent/mortgage $ -
Utilities & telephone $ -
Facility maintenance $ -
Other facilities costs $ -
Total Facilities costs $ -

Non-marketing labor $ -
Office supplies $ -
Travel & Entertainment $ -
Other non-marketing expense $ -

Product costs
Development cost $ -
Acquisition cost $ -
Conversion cost $ -
Total Produt costs $ -

Total Non-marketing costs $ -

Marketing costs Element Group


Search marketing
PPC Click charges ($/mo) $ -
Campaign management labor ($/mo) $ -
Search optimization labor ($/mo) $ -
Total Search marketing costs $ -

Newsletters
Content development ($/mo) $ -
Technical & publishing cost ($/mo) $ -
Total Newsletters $ -

Affiliate marketing
Affiliate program administration $ -
Affiliate commissions $ -
Total Affiliate marketing $ -

Total Offline Advertising $ -

Total Marketing costs $ -

Total Costs $ -

Monthly Profit $ -
Profit Margin 0.0%
Scaling for seasonality

Actual 6 month History


Key Metric t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1
Average cost per order 500 450 430 420 415 410
Average Yield per order 650 645 655 658 662 665

Historical / Target period 6 month History


Key Metric t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6
Average cost per order 620 612 595 590 575 567
Average Yield per order 431 439 445 447 450 454

Specify 6 month History


Key Metric t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1
Average cost per order 448.3 442.5 430.2 426.6 415.8 410
Average Yield per order 631.3 643.0 651.8 654.7 659.1 665
Your measured values

Values from corresponding period reflecting


expected seasonal trend. Note that the values should
come from the historical period corresponding to the
NEXT 6 months, NOT those leading up to the
period of seasonally unique behavior.

Specify these values to "scale" the seasonal


trend to the current period and forecast the next
6 months' behavior.