To: Interested Parties

From: Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Olivia Myszkowski, Lake Research Partners

RE: New Polling Reinforces Wide-Open, Two-Person Race in Democratic Primary for NJ Governor

Date: May 8th, 2017

Yet another recent statewide survey of likely 2017 voters in New Jerseys Democratic Primary for
Governor shows Democrat Jim Johnson, former Assistant U.S. Prosecuting Attorney and Under Secretary
of the Treasury for President Clinton, in a two-person race against former Goldman Sachs President Phil
Murphy in what is still a wide-open race.1 With less than five weeks till Election Day, over half of the
Primary electorate (52%) remains undecided, despite Murphys multimillion dollar expenditures, higher
name recognition, and significant outspending of Johnsonnot to mention the backing of the political
machinejust one-quarter (26%) of Democratic Primary voters offer their support for the former
Goldman Sachs global banking executive. Moreover, the demographic profile of the undecided vote favors
Johnson more than Murphy. Murphys inability to close the deal in this Primary, despite his advantages,
combines with Johnsons competitive positioning to underscore just how volatile this race remains, with
voters still looking for a progressive alternative to Murphy and one whose background would not pose
such a major liability in a general election.

The latest Quinnipiac Poll shows Johnson nearly doubling his support from the last poll while Murphy,
better known at this stage and having spent millions in advertising, struggles to garner one-quarter of the
vote. Johnson has moved from 4% to 7%, despite limited and targeted paid communications to date, while
Murphy remains essentially stuck at 26%. This is a continuation of a trend for Johnson, with his support
having steadily increased since public polling commenced in January. The lack of movement for Murphy
is particularly distressing for his campaign, as they have already spent $15 million to buy voters support,
not to mention the significant expenditures to gain support from the heads of local Party committees.

The opportunity for additional movement for Johnson has been apparent since a late 2016 poll of
Democratic primary voters, which showed voters shifting to Johnson in dramatic fashion once they learn
Lake Research Partners
1101 17th Street NW,
more about the candidate field.2 After voters hear just positive descriptions of the candidates, with further
Suite 301 focus on Johnsons record and agenda for New Jersey, Johnson vaults into a double-digit lead over
Washington, DC 20036 Murphy: 30% for Johnson to 19% for Murphy. Not only does the undecided vote drop nearly in half (from
Tel: 202.776.9066
Fax: 202.776.9074 59% to 35%), but even without voters hearing anything regarding Murphys misdeeds while leading
Goldman Sachs, his support dwindles in this scenario. The informed trial heat may simulate a somewhat
Partners skewed communications environment, yet it underscores Johnsons ability to make rapid gains with
Celinda Lake strong voter outreach and paid media efforts, andin stark contrast to Murphythe real appeal of
Alysia Snell
David Mermin Johnsons message of change, bolstered by a legacy of public service to the state, and unique strengths
Dr. Robert G. Meadow on the issues of the education and economic, political, and criminal justice reform.
Daniel Gotoff
Joshua Ulibarri

1 Quinnipiac Polls: April 26-May 1, 2017. N=519. Margin of error: +/-4.3%.

2 Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey of 400 likely 2017 Democratic Primary voters in New Jersey. The
survey was conducted by
telephone, using professional interviewers, between November 17th and November 21st, 2016. The overall margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9%.
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Initial Ballot (including leaners) Final Ballot (including leaners)

59

30 35
22 19
10 14
8
5 15 7 14 14 7

Johnson Murphy Winiewski Undec. Johnson Murphy Wisniewski Undec.

*Darker colors indicate strong support

Among the most undecided are demographic groups that should be especially accessible to Johnson, including
African American votersespecially African American women (68% undecided) and Latinos (75%). While a broad-
based communications effort will be needed to define Johnson among all audiences, the size and composition of
the undecided vote highlights the importance of these particular voters to Johnsons winning coalition. These are
the groups that coalesce behind Johnson disproportionately over the course of the survey. Moreover, if Johnson
were to consolidate 85% of the African American vote only, he would be slightly ahead of Murphyand even
further ahead by the final ballot of the survey.

Further highlighting Murphys weakness is the fact that he starts out better known than Johnson among
Democratsbut remains unable to convert his positive name ID into votes. Fully 47% of Democrats know
Murphy, yet his support is roughly half that figure. By comparison, Johnson is well liked (16% favorable to 5%
unfavorable), but less well-knownunsurprising given the campaigns harboring of resources until the home
stretchand even still, he already outperforms Murphy in converting his positive personal profile into ballot
support.

###

Poll after poll make the same case: Jim Johnson is strongly positioned to win this race, provided his campaign has
the resources to mount a vigorous communications effort to define himself and the stakes of this race.