Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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35
Billion Dollars
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10
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p
1 All currencies stated in this paper are in nominal Singapore dollars unless otherwise stated.
2 Construction demand is measured by total value of construction contracts awarded; all demand figures in
this paper exclude reclamation projects.
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Public Sector
2. Total public sector construction demand shrank to $14.0 billion in 2015, from $19.2
billion in 2014. The reduction was largely due to the re-scheduling of a few major
infrastructure including MRT contracts from the fourth quarter of 2015 to early 2016 as
longer preparation times are needed to implement these large-scale projects.
3. On the back of the stabilising public housing market, total value of public residential
contracts awarded in 2015 moderated further to $3.8 billion in 2015, from $4.8 billion in
2014. By contrast, construction demand for industrial developments increased to $1.2
billion in 2015, boosted by the award of a few major industrial facilities including JTC Space
@ Tuas, JTC Food Hub @ Senoko and Singapores third desalination plant in Tuas.
Institutional and other building construction demand remained strong at $5.0 billion in 2015,
fuelled by various major projects such as the National Centre for Infectious Diseases,
advanced work for the Integrated Rail Depot for the Thomson-East Coast MRT Line (TEL)
and Woodlands Police Divisional Headquarters.
4. Following a record high of $8.5 billion worth of civil engineering works which included
contracts for TEL awarded in 2014, demand for civil engineering works fell to $3.8 billion in
2015 due to the re-scheduling of a few major MRT contracts from the last few months of
2015 to 2016. Nonetheless, a number of major infrastructure projects including the
construction of Marine Parade MRT station for the TEL, expansion of the KPE/TPE
interchange, earthworks at Gali Batu and PUBs sewerage improvement works provided
some support to this category.
Private Sector
5. The private sector construction demand fell from $19.5 billion in 2014 to $13.2 billion
in 2015, weighed down by the fall in private building construction demand in the second half
of 2015. Total private residential construction demand declined further from $6.5 billion in
2014 to $3.9 billion in 2015 amid the slowing residential property market.
6. Similarly, total private commercial building construction demand halved to $1.9 billion
in 2015 compared to preceding two years levels, due to the postponement of some major
commercial buildings from 2015 to 2016. Total private industrial building construction also
softened from $6 billion in 2014 to $4.1 billion in 2015 in tandem with the slowdown in
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manufacturing activities. Nonetheless, demand for industrial developments remained
underpinned by various warehouse developments and data centres. On the other hand,
institutional & other building construction demand continued to hold up at $1.7 billion, fueled
by the award of addition and alteration works to Changi Airport Terminal 1 and the
extension works to Raffles Hospital.
7. The private sector civil engineering construction demand reached $1.6 billion in 2015,
boosted by the award of the Changi Airport Group (CAG)s 3-Runway System for Changi
Airport (Package 1).
8. Based on BCAs latest Development Plans Survey conducted in Oct/Nov 2015 and
taking into consideration the likely tender price movement and recent market developments,
total construction demand (excluding reclamation works) in 2016 is projected to be
between $27.0 billion and $34.0 billion (Table 1). The mid-point of 2016s construction
demand forecast (at $30.5 billion) is anticipated to be higher than the preliminary demand in
2015 at $27.2 billion (Chart 2). Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the total construction
demand for 2016 could potentially reach $34.0 billion if all major projects were to proceed
according to the estimated award schedules.
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40 38.8
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Billion Dollars
25 27.6 27.2 27
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p2016f
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9. Total public sector construction demand is projected to strengthen significantly to
between $18.5 billion and $21.5 billion, contributing about 65% share to the total
industrys demand. The boost to demand growth in 2016 will largely come from an
anticipated rebound in civil engineering demand.
10. By contrast, in light of the current slowdown in property market and continued
economic uncertainties, private sectors construction demand is projected to slow to
between $8.5 billion and $12.5 billion in 2016. While construction demand for building
developments is projected to soften further, demand for private sector civil engineering
works is likely to at least hold up at preceding years level.
Private Housing
12. The private residential construction demand is projected to soften further from $3.9
billion in 2015 to between $2.0 billion and $3.4 billion in 2016, in light of the slowdown in
residential property market on the back of the on-going ramp-up in private home
completions and rising vacancies. Nonetheless, there are still a number of sizeable
residential projects that are slated for construction commencement in 2016; these include a
few condominiums that will be developed on the Government Land Sales sites at locations
such as Dundee Road, West Coast Vale and Upper Serangoon Road.
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remain subdued and stay similar to preceding years level, at about $1.9 billion to $2.5
billion. The demand is likely to be mainly supported by the upcoming asset enhancement
initiatives for various retail developments and also construction of mixed developments
such as Woods Square in Woodlands and Paya Lebar Central.
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PUBLIC SECTOR CONSTRUCTION CONSULTANCY AND CONSTRUCTION TENDERS
IN 2016
17. Based on the preliminary data provided by the public sector agencies, a total of 227
construction consultancy tenders and 420 construction tenders are expected to be called in
2016.
20. Based on BCAs Construction Demand Forecast Model which takes into consideration
Singapores economic outlook and the planned public sector projects in the pipeline, the
average construction demand is projected to be between $26.0 billion and $35.0
billion per annum in 2017 and 2018 and between $26.0 billion and $37.0 billion per
annum in 2019 and 2020.
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21. Based on the public agencies feedback, BCA estimates the public sector construction
demand to be between $16.0 billion and $20.0 billion annually from 2017 to 2020, with
about 60% of the total demand coming from building projects while the remaining 40% from
civil engineering projects. Civil engineering construction demand is expected to remain
strong in the following years supported by major infrastructure works coming on stream
beyond 2016 which include new MRT lines (Circle Line 6, Jurong Regional Line, North-East
Line extension and Cross Island Line), North-South Expressway, Changi Airport Terminal 5
Development (Phase 1) and Phase 2 of the Deep Tunnel Sewerage System.
22. Despite the drop in construction demand in 2015, total construction output (progress
payments made for work done) stayed firm at about $35.0 billion in 2015 on account of the
strong construction demand recorded in the preceding two years. Moving forward, the total
nominal construction output is projected to moderate to between $32.0 billion and
$34.0 billion in 2016, partly due to the lower construction demand in 2015.
23. The construction GDP expanded by 1.1%3 in 2015, moderating from the 3.0% growth
registered in 2014. Nonetheless, the construction sectors share of economic GDP
continued to sustain at about 4.7% in 2015 amid the slowdown in the performances of other
economic sectors.
3 Advance Estimates based on MTIs Press Release for 4Q15, 4 January 2016
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Chart 3: Construction Output (Certified Progress Payments), 1995-2015
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Billion Dollars
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p
p : Preliminary Year
CONSTRUCTION RESOURCES
24. Construction manpower growth has been tapering off since early 2015 on the back of
various government measures in tightening foreign workforce in order to raise productivity.
Prices of basic construction materials continued to soften over the course of 2015,
particularly for steel which had fallen significantly due to waning global demand and
oversupply situation in China. Exacerbated by the property market slowdown and subdued
economic conditions which resulted in intense tendering competition in the building market,
the BCAs Building Works Tender Price Index (TPI) declined in 2015, reversing previous
two years uptrend.
Manpower Requirements
25. Corresponding to the continued high level of on-site construction activities in 2015, the
total construction employment level rose moderately from the preceding year. According to
the latest employment statistics released by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM), construction
employment grew by 7,700 in the first three quarters of 2015, bringing the total construction
employment level to 499,100 persons in September 2015 or 1.9% higher than that of the
same period a year ago.4
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26. Moving forward, in the bid to achieve a quantum leap in productivity improvement in
the construction industry, much emphasis has been placed on game-changing technologies
such as Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA) and Visual Design and
Construction (VDC) in order to raise labour efficiency. Hence, the current tight labour
market situation is likely to continue into 2016, increasing the need for firms in the industry
to step up technology adoption and workforce upgrading.
Construction Materials
Ready-Mixed Concrete
27. The demand for ready-mixed concrete reached 16.1 million m3 in 2015 (Table 3).
With the likely moderation in on-site construction activities in 2016, the estimated demand
for ready-mixed concrete is projected to range from 13 million to 15 million m3.
28. The preliminary average market price of Grade 40 pump ready-mixed concrete5 was
estimated at about $97.40 per m3 in December 2015, a drop of 5.7% compared to a year
ago.
Precast Concrete
29. The preliminary estimate of precast concrete consumed by the construction sector in
2015 is 1.4 million m3. With a projected slowdown in building works, the precast concrete
demand for 2016 is estimated to be between 1.1 million m 3 to 1.3 million m3. In the medium
term from 2017 to 2020, the demand for precast concrete is expected to be between 1.1
million m3 to 1.4 million m3 per year.
30. The steady level of on-site construction activities in 2015 continued to sustain the high
demand for rebars. The net imports plus local production (without considering stock levels)
was about 2.1 million tonnes in 2015, a 17% growth as compared to the volume recorded a
year ago. Due to the economic slowdown and chronic overcapacity of steel in China
market, the weak global steel prices continued to boost Singapores import volume of
rebars in 2015 as suppliers capitalised on the low import prices to stock up inventory. In
terms of import sources, China continued to stay at the top in 2015, accounting for 97% of
5
The market prices are based on contracts with non-fixed price, fixed price and market retail price.
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the total rebar imports. For 2016, the net imports plus local production (without factoring in
stock levels) for rebars is estimated to be around 1.6 million to 1.9 million tonnes, in tandem
with the anticipated moderation in construction activities.
31. In January 2015, the average market price of rebar6 dropped below $600 per tonne
and has continued to fall further to below $500 per tonne since the second half of 2015 due
to the continued influx of Chinese exports. The rebar price was estimated to hit a low of
about $400 per tonne in December 2015 owing to a collapse in iron ore prices and
shrinking demand in China.
32. The global outlook for steel in the year ahead remains mixed. Some analysts
envisage a continued decline in rebar prices on account of slowing global economy 7 ,
weakening steel consumption in China, falling raw material costs and the continuous
oversupplied steel market as some producers will raise output to defend market share
despite prices falling below marginal costs8. However, the World Steel Association expects
steel demand to rebound in 2016 due to an anticipated recovery in the developed
economies and the stabilisation of China's economy9.
33. Prices of base metals, widely used in construction and infrastructure projects, dropped
about 20% as compared to the beginning of 2015. Both copper and aluminium started the
year with a sharp fall on news of World Banks downgraded global growth for 2015. Base
metals prices were briefly supported in the second quarter of 2015 on weaker US dollar,
lower inventory levels coupled with production disruptions in Indonesia and Chile. However,
the gains subsided and prices continued to ease during the second half of 2015 due to
Greece debt crisis, devaluation of the Chinese Yuan, falling metal demand from China amid
its slowing economic growth as well as the oversupply situation. Although base metals
prices rebounded in September on hope of production cutback by miners, average copper
price hit a 6-year low and dropped below US$4,500 per tonne by end 2015, weighed down
by stronger US dollar and fears about slowing Chinese demand. Similarly, average
6 The prices refer to 16mm to 32mm High Tensile rebar and are based on fixed price supply contracts with
contract period 6 months or less.
7 The Business Times, 11 December 2015
8 The Business Times, 6 October 2015
9 Worldsteel Association : Worldsteel Short Range Outlook 2015-2016, 12 October 2015
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aluminium price also plunged to its lowest level at US$1,423.5 per tonne10 since 2009 on
glut of supply from China by end 2015.
34. Looking ahead, while some analysts view that the production cut plans announced by
global miners may provide some support to copper and aluminium prices in 201611, others
foresee that the economic downturn in China, along with the oversupply situation will keep
base metals prices under pressure.
35. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure for seaborne transportation of major raw
materials such as iron ore and coal (which have an impact on construction material prices),
stayed at depressed 500 to 600 points in the first half of 2015 before gradually picked up to
a yearly high of 1,222 points in the beginning of August 2015 driven by higher chartering
activity on iron ore exports and a contraction in fleet of vessels. However, the recovery was
short-lived as the BDI dropped below 500 points in November and hit a 30-year low of 471
points on 16 December 2015 due to weakening demand in global trade and oversupply of
vessels in the market.
36. Majority of the market analysts foresee freight rates to remain low in 2016 as a result
of an anticipated continued drop in demand for imported iron ore and coal from China due
to its economic slowdown.12 Nonetheless, some shipping market players expect the dry bulk
shipping market to stabilise in 2016 on cheaper oil price and slowing fleet growth.13
37. The rental rates (excluding operators) of mobile and tower cranes continued their
downtrend in 2015 due to softening in private sector building construction demand. The
average rental rates eased by 5% - 20% as compared to 2014 depending on the type of
crane. For 2016, local suppliers generally anticipate the market to remain competitive and
foresee rental rates to either remain the same or ease further amid an oversupply situation.
10 Based on London Metal Exchange Average Cash Buyer Price as at 23 November 2015
11 Bloomberg 10 Dec 2015, The Wall Street Journal 11 December 2015
12 South China Morning Post, 9 October 2015; Bloomberg, 19 November 2015
13 Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, 14 December 2015
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CONSTRUCTION COSTS
38. The BCAs Building Works Tender Price Index (TPI)14 is estimated to have decreased
by about 2% year-on-year in 2015 (Chart 4) against the backdrop of moderated building
construction demand and declining prices of major construction materials such as concrete
and reinforcement bars. Looking ahead, tender prices are expected to stay very competitive
in view of the likely further moderation in construction demand for building works in 2016 as
contractors continue to actively seek for new projects to fill their order books.
Chart 4: Annual BCAs Tender Price Index for Building Works, 2010 = 100
CONCLUSION
39. Following the sharp drop in demand in 2009 due to the global financial crisis, the
construction industry in Singapore has staged a resilient recovery since 2010 with annual
value of contracts awarded hovering between $31 billion and $39 billion in 2011-14. Total
construction demand moderated in 2015 mainly due to rescheduling of a few major public
sector projects and a reduction in private sector construction demand amid the muted
property market sentiments. Looking forward to 2016, the renewed strength of public sector
14BCA TPI excludes piling works, sub-structure works and mechanical & electrical works as these cost items
are either project specific or not feasible to compile due to lack of data.
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demand will soften the impact of the projected slowdown in private sector demand and help
the industry to maintain its momentum. The record high level of construction contracts
awarded in 2014, coupled with the on-going construction works for various major
infrastructure projects, will sustain on-site construction activities at a steady level for the
year ahead.
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Table 1: Contracts Awarded (Excl. Reclamation) by Sector & Type of Work
2015 2016
2011 2012 2013 2014
(Preliminary) (Forecast)
Civil Engineering Work 6.74 4.81 6.94 9.90 5.43 10.7 - 12.9
Civil Engineering Work 6.13 2.12 5.51 8.47 3.79 9.0 - 10.4
Civil Engineering Work 0.61 2.69 1.43 1.44 1.63 1.7 - 2.5
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Table 2a: Number of Construction Consultancy Tenders To Be Called By Public Sector Agencies
(Tentative schedules subject to changes)
Construction Development Type Period Project Architectural Quantity Civil & M&E
Cost Category Management Surveying Structural Engineering
Engineering
1Q16 2 2 2 2 2
Building
2Q16 1 9 9 9 9
(e.g. Upgrading works for public &
recreational facilities, institutional
3Q16 0 0 0 0 0
buildings, etc.)
4Q16 1 2 1 0 1
Up to $14m
1Q16 0 0 0 2 0
4Q16 0 0 0 0 0
1Q16 0 0 0 0 0
Building 2Q16 1 2 2 2 2
(e.g. HDB public housing, schools
upgrading, substations, etc) 3Q16 0 2 2 2 2
4Q16 1 4 3 3 3
$14m to $42m
1Q16 0 0 1 2 0
4Q16 0 0 1 1 0
1Q16 0 0 0 0 0
Building 2Q16 1 3 3 3 3
(e.g. HDB public housing, commercial &
institutional buildings, etc) 3Q16 0 2 2 2 2
4Q16 0 1 1 1 1
$42m to $90m
1Q16 0 0 1 2 0
4Q16 0 0 1 1 0
1Q16 1 2 2 2 1
Building
(e.g. Public housing, campus expansion 2Q16 1 4 4 4 4
for Institutes of Higher Learning,
construction or expansion of institutional 3Q16 1 7 7 7 7
& industrial buildings, etc.)
4Q16 3 5 6 6 6
Above $90m
1Q16 0 0 1 1 0
Civil Engineering
2Q16 0 0 0 0 0
(e.g. Construction of roads, rail
networks, drainage improvement works,
3Q16 1 1 0 3 1
etc.)
4Q16 0 0 0 0 0
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Table 2b: Number of Construction Tenders To Be Called By Public Sector Agencies
(Tentative schedules subject to changes)
Construction Cost Development Type 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Category
Up to $14m Residential (e.g Public housing upgrading) 3 5 7 7
Education (e.g Retrofitting of teaching facilities, upgrading of schools) 10 4 1 1
Other Buildings (e.g. Retrofitting of government amenities, offices & industrial 16 29 12 14
buildings, community club upgrading, construction & upgrading of institutional buildings,
substations and bus interchanges)
Sub-Total (Building) 29 38 20 22
Road & Bridge (e.g. Pedestrian walkways & overhead bridges, bus shelters, road 23 16 7 3
construction, repairs & widening)
Sewerage & Drainage (e.g. Drainage improvement, construction of drains & sewers) 8 6 5 4
M&E - Rails and Roads (e.g. M&E for MRT & expressways) 0 1 0 0
Other Civil Engineering (e.g Parks & park connectors, waterway, site clearance & 21 7 5 6
earthworks, infrastructure works, utilities)
Sub-Total (Civil Engineering) 52 30 17 13
Total 81 68 37 35
Road & Bridge (e.g. Junction enhancements, road construction & widening) 5 4 3 3
Sewerage & Drainage (e.g. Drainage improvement, construction of drains & sewers) 3 1 1
0
Total 40 34 25 14
Road & Bridge (e.g. Construction and widening of roads & expressways, underpass) 0 2 1 2
Sewerage & Drainage (e.g. Drainage improvement, construction of drains & sewers) 3 1 1 5
Total 17 21 19 29
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Table 3: Basic Construction Materials
Demand
Ready-Mixed
Steel Rebars
Year Concrete
(Mil tonnes)*
(Mil m3)
2014 15.1 1.8
*: This refers to net imports plus local production (without factoring in stock levels)
p: Preliminary figures
f: Forecast
Source: BCA as at 15 January 2016
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