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Gold ................................................... 22
Silver ................................................. 23
Platinum ............................................ 24
Palladium ........................................... 25
Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1754-825X) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Editor: Che-Wing Pang
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom editors@consensuseconomics.com Assistant Editors: Robert Hunt
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 www.consensuseconomics.com Luke N. George
Natalie Smith
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
electronic, photocopying, digitization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take any 1
responsibility for the information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
OVERVIEW JUNE 2016
(continued from front page)
upturn in crude oil partly reflects unplanned supply outages Despite their recent drop, Zinc (page 17) and Tin (page 20)
in an environment where excess continues to hamper expec- have outperformed most other base metals in the year to
tations (see Global Crude Oil Demand and Supply Balances date, due to structural supply deficits and the need for higher
on page 6). The earlier surge in iron ore, a key ingredient in prices to make new mines financially viable. Gold is at multi
the production of steel, also ran out of steam last month, year highs, supported by a surge in risk aversion and de-
bringing with it a decline in other commodities. Headwinds to mand for safe haven assets, but the pace of its climb will be
base metals could strengthen in the second half of 2016 in difficult to sustain. On page 5, we feature updated Long-
response to high supply and softer demand from China, as Term Forecasts for over 25 commodities, covering the years
underlined by stockpiles at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. 2016 to 2025.
Crude Oil - Brent (US$/bbl) 6 +32.6% 48.53 47.19 50.08 51.87 +6.9%
- WTI (US$/bbl) 7 +33.0% 49.40 46.36 49.70 51.17 +3.6%
Natural Gas (US, US$/MMBtu) 9 +19.7% 2.730 2.537 2.842 2.831 +3.7%
Coal (Steaming, US$/tonne) 10 -2.4% 50.58 50.55 48.90 48.93 -3.3%
Uranium (US$/lb) 11 -17.5% 28.25 34.70 37.06 38.06 +34.7%
Steel (HRC, Europe, US$/tonne) 18 +46.0% 495.0 401.0 411.9 420.7 -15.0%
Iron Ore (N. China. Fine, US$/tonne) 19 +2.1% 47.16 45.69 46.24 46.02 -2.4%
Historical price data in this publication has been provided by Commodity Research Bureau and other sources.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and Industrial Production are expressed
as average percentage changes over the previous calendar year unless otherwise indicated.
1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces 1 short ton = 0.907 metric tonnes = 2000 pounds
1,000 kilograms = 1 metric tonne = 2204.6 pounds 10 Therms of Natural Gas = 1 million Btu = 1MMBtu
1 long tonne = 1.016 metric tonnes = 2240 pounds 1 metric/long tonne unit (MTU/LTU) = 1/100 of a metric/long tonne
2 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic growth rates provide a valuable insight into the behaviour of energy and metals prices, with industrial production
growth forecasts in particular giving an overview of the likely demand for many commodities. The forecasts below are
taken from the current issues of our publications Consensus Forecasts G7 & Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus
Forecasts, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts.
3.0
Japan (lhs)
2.8 6.9 8.0
United States (lhs) 2.5 United States (lhs)
2.4 7.5
6.8 2.0
Euro Zone
2.0 Euro Zone (lhs) 1.5
6.7 (lhs) 7.0
1.6 1.0
Japan (lhs) 6.6 0.5 6.5
1.2
0.0 China (rhs)
6.5 6.0
0.8 -0.5
China (rhs) 5.5
0.4 6.4 -1.0
Lingering Global Economic Risks reading for May has magnified concerns about growth, fol-
Following a difficult start to 2016, which saw forecasts for lowing its poor Q1 GDP performance. US Federal Reserve
several major countries downgraded over several months officials including chair Janet Yellen had earlier warned of
(chart above), confidence in the global economy has strug- an impending rate hike, subject to data developments. How-
gled to return. The consensus has lifted its GDP growth ex- ever, no change in policy occurred on June 15 and a slower
pectations for China (red line), from around 6.4% in March to pace of monetary tightening now appears likely during the
6.6% in our June survey, as increases in public spending second half of 2016. Across the Atlantic, a spotlight has
and a tightening of exchange controls from Beijing alleviated been kept on the UK, as it held a referendum on June 23
fears of a near-term slowdown. Yet fundamental problems in (just after our survey date) to decide whether to remain in or
the Chinese economy were highlighted by its dependence on to leave the European Union. The outcome of the vote will
state investment in Q1. Questions are also being asked about have a significant effect on perceptions regarding risks in
Chinese exchange rate policy, after the renminbi dropped 1.6% Europe, which faces complex domestic and foreign policy
in May, its second-largest recent decline after the 2.6% slide challenges. The consensus is predicting that the euro zone
in August 2015. In the US, a very weak non-farm payrolls will expand 1.6% in 2016, the same as in 2015 and 2017.
1.6 75 EXCHANGE RATES Source: Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts,
Japanese (per US dollar) June 13, 2016
80
1.5 Consensus
85
yen per Consensus
Spot Consensus Forecasts
Forecasts 1
US $ per Rate
US$ Forecasts
End Sep End Jun % change End Jun
90 currency unit Jun. 13
1.4 2016 2017 from spot 2018
95
-2.1
100 Euro 1.130 1.112 1.106 1.127
1.3
105 Japanese yen 106.3 110.1 114.0 -6.8 115.1
-5.0
1.2
110 Australian dollar 0.740 0.738 0.703 0.728
US$ per 115 Chinese renminbi 6.586 6.643 6.768 -2.7 6.825
1.1 Euro 120 Canadian dollar 1.276 1.311 1.292 -1.3 1.268
125 Brazilian real 3.451 3.779 3.940 -12.4 4.031
1.0
Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13 Jan 16
130
Indian rupee 67.11 67.78 68.58 -2.2 68.25
Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13 Jan 16
Spike in Currency Volatility dollar. However, a rate move at the meeting appeared un-
FX movements continue to be affected by risk perceptions likely after US jobs growth in May fell to its lowest level in
and monetary policy speculation as investors await the first more than five years. US rates were kept unchanged, as
US rate hike of 2016 six months into the year. US Federal expected, last week, with the risk of Brexit (i.e. the UK vot-
Reserve officials spoke in May of the possibility of higher ing to leave the European Union on June 23) another risk
rates as early as June 15, which lifted demand for the US factor behind the decision to keep policy on hold.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 3
COMMODITY PRICE INDICES JUNE 2016
Commodity price indices are useful aggregates of individual commodity price trends. We focus here on two commodity price
indices: The Economist Base Metals Index (which weights the prices of major base metals according to their share of
world trade in 2005) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Non-Rural Commodity Price Index (which weights the
prices of major minerals according to their share of Australian exports in 2014/2015). Both indices are expressed as US$
prices in a given base year and track the performance of their particular subset of commodities. In addition to showing
historical data from the two indices, we also show consensus forecasts for both over the next ten quarters. These are
calculated from weighting consensus commodity price forecasts from this editions survey. In the first two charts below, we
also show the highest and lowest projections over the forecast horizon in order to illustrate the range of forecasts.
The Economist Base Metals Index RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
220 (US$ price index, 2005=100) (US$ price index, Fiscal Year 2014/15 = 100)
220
Consensus Weights By Share of Aust. Export Values: Consensus
Forecasts 200 Forecasts
180 180
160 Consensus
High
140 140 Low
120
100 100
Coking Coal (21%)
80 Thermal Coal (14%) [LNG (7%)]
Weights By Share of World Trade: Copper (4%)
60 Consensus Gold (13%)
Aluminium (47%) Zinc (7%) 60
High Iron Ore Lump (13%) Nickel (4%)
Copper (32%) Lead (3%) Zinc (2%)
Low 40 Aluminium (11%)
Nickel (8%) Tin (3%) Lead (1%)
Alumina (10%)
20 20
Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018
The Economist Base Metals Index is a sub-index of The RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is a
the headline Economist Commodity Price Index, containing sub-index of the RBAs Headline Index of Commodity
six base metals: Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Prices. The index uses an Australian fiscal base year 2014/
Zinc. The index base year is 2005 = 100, and the headline 2015 (July to June) and weights major minerals (listed
index is available in sterling and euros, as well as US dol- above) according to their share of Australian export val-
lars. It is published on a weekly basis. Energy & Metals ues. Oil is excluded while liquefied natural gas (LNG) is
Consensus Forecasts then converts this week-by-week data included (it is some 7% of the index, but is not included in
into quarterly averages and calculates the index forecasts Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts calculations, as
by using our panellists projections for the individual metals. we do not survey for LNG forecasts).
Consensus Forecasts
See individual commodity US$
Average Long-Term
pages for mineral (US$ Nominal, Annual Averages)
(2021-2025 Average)
specifications
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal Real
Crude Oil - Brent 99.07 52.40 42.91 52.68 60.31 62.06 63.93 71.06 64.37
- WTI 93.29 48.74 42.21 52.03 58.10 59.52 61.59 65.52 60.85
RBOB Gas (US) 2.661 1.913 1.435 1.496 1.805 2.000 2.100 na na
Gas Oil (Europe) 846.0 495.4 387.4 439.4 601.0 620.0 650.0 na na
Natural Gas - US 4.356 2.624 2.241 2.907 3.025 3.122 3.165 3.567 3.094
- UK, pence 51.60 42.95 29.77 28.50 32.00 33.00 34.00 na na
Coking Coal 125.3 101.6 83.25 86.03 90.38 95.75 103.6 121.7 110.0
Thermal Coal - Contract 80.05 71.30 60.69 56.41 56.38 57.25 58.72 69.04 60.70
Spot 69.54 56.84 50.75 48.76 50.20 52.62 55.37 65.17 58.65
Uranium 33.70 36.82 32.05 38.76 44.00 46.94 50.13 56.55 52.03
Aluminium 1863 1662 1552 1608 1688 1749 1843 2104 1862
Alumina 330.5 310.0 245.3 261.4 276.2 288.7 301.2 340.2 306.8
Copper 6857 5502 4733 4941 5280 5624 5901 6342 5915
Nickel 16862 11829 9030 10545 12356 13823 14965 18377 16812
Lead 2094 1786 1746 1785 1833 1859 1841 1890 1811
Zinc 2161 1931 1835 2012 2084 2176 2203 2170 2038
Cobalt 14.38 13.27 11.21 12.05 12.20 12.53 12.87 13.21 11.69
Tin 21908 16083 16372 16932 17422 18230 18935 21313 18812
Manganese 4.543 3.083 2.938 2.641 2.713 2.876 3.086 3.981 3.598
Molybdenum 11.37 6.691 5.953 6.036 6.636 7.287 7.874 8.358 7.536
Rutile 1020 865.3 720.4 778.6 842.1 900.0 940.0 1062 1044
Ilmenite 187.7 124.2 102.2 108.8 122.5 134.2 142.0 153.6 150.4
Zircon 1217 1100 978.3 984.8 1092 1157 1218 1235 1186
Steel - HRC, Europe 588.0 432.9 410.3 416.1 430.6 452.9 481.2 na na
HRC, USA 685.3 484.9 511.5 483.2 494.3 511.9 514.3 na na
HRC, Asia 559.2 414.4 371.4 360.8 381.1 394.7 411.3 na na
Iron Ore - Lump (Aust) 102.1 57.53 49.92 45.51 51.61 54.36 57.52 64.30 59.10
Fine (Aust) 90.46 45.43 44.72 37.38 40.46 42.23 43.39 54.58 48.98
Fine (Brz) 85.07 43.40 47.60 40.14 48.47 47.87 50.09 na na
Gold 1265 1160 1226 1234 1233 1258 1255 1241 1126
Silver 19.03 15.69 15.99 16.82 17.27 17.93 18.38 18.50 17.48
Platinum 1382 1044 991.1 1077 1152 1241 1319 1373 1346
Palladium 797.9 687.5 576.6 659.7 713.1 752.4 773.8 702.4 671.8
% Change Between 2016 and 2020 % Change Between 2020 and Long-Term Average
(Nominal Prices) (Nominal Prices)
Crude Oil (WTI) Crude Oil (WTI)
Coking Coal Coking Coal
Steaming Coal Steaming Coal
Aluminium Aluminium
Copper Copper
Nickel Nickel
Lead Lead
Zinc Zinc
Iron Ore-Lump (Aus) Iron Ore-Lump (Aus)
Iron Ore - Fine (Aus) Iron Ore - Fine (Aus)
Gold Gold
Silver Silver
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28%
(millions of barrels Crude Oil Volumes - Supply and Demand Consensus Forecasts
per day)
World 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Supply 96.29 95.96 96.30 96.64 96.41 96.31 96.49 96.94
Demand 94.59 94.85 96.01 96.34 95.66 95.94 97.08 97.30
Balance 1.70 1.12 0.30 0.30 0.75 0.37 -0.58 -0.35
100
Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balances 2.5 Supply Outages Support Price
(millions of barrels per day)
98 Supply 2.0 OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers
(left scale) (namely Russia) ended their June meet-
96 Source: International Energy 1.5 ing without agreement on how to man-
Agency for Historical Data.
94 1.0 age the production overhang.
92 0.5
Crude oil exports from Iran rose from
1.4mb/d in March to around 2.0mb/d in
90 0.0 April, dampening speculation that the
88 -0.5 global oil glut will disappear soon.
Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, and at-
86 Implied Stock Change Consensus -1.0
Demand tacks on Nigerian oil pipelines have tem-
84 (right scale) Forecasts -1.5
(left scale) porarily disrupted crude oil supply. How-
82 -2.0 ever, high stockpiles of the fossil fuel
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 have cast doubt over the sustainability
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 of its price rebound.
US$/bbl Crude Oil (Brent and WTI) Spot Prices, US$/barrel US$/bbl Brent Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
120 55 65 65
Aug 1, 2015 to US$/bbl Energy Information
Jan. 1, 2014 to Jul. 31, 2015 Present
110 Admin.,USA, Brent
(left scale) (right scale) 50 60 60
100 (Jun. 7)
ICE Futures
WTI 45 55 55
90 (Brent)
Brent 50 50
80 40
WTI
70 45 45
Range 2005 - 2016 35 Consensus
60 US$30.28 - US$143.95 40 (Brent) 40
(July 3, 2008) 30
50
Brent 35 35
40 25 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
US$ Crude Oil Futures September 2016 Contracts WTI Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$/bbl, Daily High/Low/Close 65
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date 65
60 Consensus
55 60 (WTI) 60
RBOB Gasoline (US) Forecasts, US$/gallon, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Jun. 20): US$1.582 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Deutsche Bank 1.560 1.400 1.450 1.730 9.4% 1.770 1.480 na na
BNP Paribas 1.500 1.430 1.570 1.670 5.6% 1.640 1.550 na na
GKI Research 1.550 1.500 1.550 1.600 1.2% 1.650 1.700 1.700 1.800
P K Verleger 1.473 1.154 1.133 1.426 -9.8% 1.332 0.904 na na
Bank of China International 1.524 1.310 1.381 1.381 -12.7% na na na na
US$ RBOB Gasoline (US), Spot Price US$/gallon Consensus Forecasts for RBOB Gasoline
3.5 3.5 2.0
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
2.0 2.0
1.4
European Gas Oil Forecasts, US$/gallon, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Jun. 20): US$450.8 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Deutsche Bank 404.0 449.0 478.0 478.0 6.0% 518.0 519.0 na na
GKI Research 450.0 430.0 450.0 450.0 -0.2% 470.0 480.0 500.0 550.0
Bank of China International 435.8 413.5 435.8 435.8 -3.3% na na na na
BNP Paribas 387.0 440.0 454.0 432.0 -4.2% 454.0 507.0 na na
P K Verleger 406.3 343.9 345.4 360.2 -20.1% 362.1 265.0 na na
US$ Gas Oil, Europe, Spot Price Gas Oil Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
1000
US$/tonne Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
550 550
US$/tonne
525 Gas Oil 525
800
500 Futures (ICE) 500
475 475
600
450 450
425 425
400 Consensus
400 400
375 375
200 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
4.1
5.50 1.50
4.0
4.50 1.45
3.50 Corn, NYMEX, 3.9
1.40
right scale 3.8
2.50
1.35 3.7
1.50 Ethanol, US$/gallon
1.30 3.6
0.50 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Ethanol is a clean-burning renewable fuel, made from vari- output in the former, buoyed by large amounts of arable
ous plant materials and feedstocks, collectively called land, mainly for export. In terms of supply, ethanol in the
biomass. In terms of demand, it is primarily used as a US depends largely on corn (charted above), the value
fuel supplement for for motor vehicles, when blended with of which is influenced by unpredictable events in agri-
gasoline to produce less harmful tranport emmissions, as culture, notably crop damage from floods or weather. Etha-
required by government regulation. Brazil and the US ac- nol futures, traded on the NYMEX, are liquid and offer
count for more than 80% of global ethanol production, with traders the opportunity to minimize risks.
Survey Date Spot Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
(Jun. 20): US$2.730 from spot
CIBC 2.700 2.700 3.500 3.500 28.2% 3.500 3.500 na na
Euromonitor International 2.832 2.972 3.136 3.238 18.6% 3.309 3.349 3.392 3.436
Citigroup 2.200 2.500 3.200 3.200 17.2% 3.200 3.200 na na
TD Economics 2.350 2.500 2.900 3.100 13.6% 3.400 3.600 na na
Credit Suisse 2.750 2.850 3.250 3.000 9.9% 3.250 3.500 3.500 3.500
Liberum Capital 2.300 2.300 3.000 3.000 9.9% 3.000 3.000 2.737 2.737
Macquarie 2.350 2.850 3.150 3.000 9.9% 3.500 3.000 3.250 3.250
Lloyds Bank 2.500 2.800 3.000 2.900 6.2% 2.800 3.000 3.100 2.900
Capital Economics 2.500 2.625 2.750 2.875 5.3% 3.125 3.375 na na
Investec 2.500 2.500 2.800 2.800 2.6% 2.800 2.800 2.900 2.900
Moody's Analytics 2.340 2.520 2.670 2.800 2.6% 2.900 3.030 3.170 3.290
UBS 2.500 2.600 2.650 2.750 0.7% 2.750 2.850 2.900 3.000
Deutsche Bank 2.350 2.500 2.650 2.730 0.0% 2.610 3.010 na na
Commonwealth Bank 2.185 2.484 2.839 2.646 -3.1% 2.719 2.838 3.038 2.728
Morgan Stanley 2.134 2.428 2.765 2.610 -4.4% 2.691 2.795 na na
GKI Research 2.500 2.500 2.600 2.600 -4.8% 2.650 2.700 2.700 2.800
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.160 2.340 2.640 2.510 -8.1% 2.730 2.910 3.040 3.120
ABN Amro 2.250 2.250 2.500 2.500 -8.4% 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000
Oxford Economics 1.977 1.987 2.006 2.037 -25.4% 2.077 2.129 2.182 2.237
Consensus (Mean) 2.388 2.537 2.842 2.831 3.7% 2.935 3.018 2.993 2.992
High 2.832 2.972 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.600 3.500 3.500
Low 1.977 1.987 2.006 2.037 2.077 2.129 2.182 2.237
Standard Deviation 0.222 0.235 0.333 0.326 0.364 0.350 0.336 0.340
UK Natural Gas Forecasts, UK pence/therm Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Jun. 20): 33.44 p Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
GKI Research 32.00 32.00 30.00 30.00 -10.3% 31.00 31.00 32.00 32.00
Lloyds Bank 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 -10.3% 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00
Capital Economics 28.50 26.00 25.00 25.00 -25.2% 25.00 25.00 na na
Consensus (Mean) 30.17 29.33 28.33 28.33 -15.3% 28.67 28.67 31.00 31.00
High 32.00 32.00 30.00 30.00 31.00 31.00 32.00 32.00
Low 28.50 26.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 30.00 30.00
Standard Deviation 1.76 3.06 2.89 2.89 3.21 3.21 1.41 1.41
8 .0 60 2 .8
Consensus
6 .0 50 2 .4
4 .0 40
2 .0
Energy Info.
Admin., USA (Jun. 7)
2 .0 30 US$/MMBtu
1 .6
0 .0 20 Sp ot Se p Dec Mar Jun Sep D ec Mar Jun
Ja n 2 0 0 8 D ec 2009 Nov 2011 O ct 2 0 1 3 Se p 20 15 20 16 20 16 2 01 7 20 17 20 17 2 01 7 20 18 2 018
Consensus (Mean) 84.16 84.07 85.57 85.73 1.9% 86.23 86.57 88.59 89.20
Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Spot Price
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
Q3: US$50.58
from Q3
Euromonitor International 58.18 59.31 60.53 61.38 21.4% 62.09 62.63 63.29 64.02
Morgan Stanley 54.00 54.00 55.00 56.00 10.7% 56.00 56.00 na na
UBS 54.00 56.00 54.00 56.00 10.7% 55.00 57.00 55.00 58.00
Credit Suisse 53.00 52.00 50.00 50.00 -1.1% 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Deutsche Bank 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 -1.1% 48.00 48.00 na na
Timetric 45.00 46.00 50.00 50.00 -1.1% 50.00 50.00 50.00 53.00
Investec 49.80 49.80 46.20 46.20 -8.7% 44.20 44.20 43.00 43.00
Commonwealth Bank 52.00 50.00 48.00 46.00 -9.0% 45.00 45.00 45.00 46.00
BoA Merrill Lynch 45.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 -11.0% 45.00 45.00 na na
Liberum Capital 50.00 50.00 45.00 45.00 -11.0% 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00
RBC Capital Markets 50.00 50.00 45.00 45.00 -11.0% 45.00 45.00 50.00 50.00
Macquarie 48.00 46.00 44.00 44.00 -13.0% 42.00 42.00 44.00 44.00
Capital Economics 48.50 46.00 43.00 41.50 -17.9% 42.50 44.00 na na
Consensus (Mean) 50.58 50.55 48.90 48.93 -3.3% 48.45 48.76 49.48 50.34
Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
1
Q3: US$58.84 Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Consensus (Mean)1 58.84 59.03 58.53 55.88 -5.0% 55.63 55.63 55.91 56.38
High 61.60 61.60 61.60 60.00 60.00 60.00 62.20 64.00
Low 52.50 54.00 55.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 50.00 50.00
Standard Deviation 3.01 2.58 2.69 3.27 3.58 3.58 4.84 5.49
US$ Coking Coal and Steaming Coal Prices Consensus Forecasts and Futures Prices
350 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
Australian Coking Coal US$/tonne
300
US$/metric 120
tonne
Australian 100
Australian Coking Coal
250 Consensus
Steaming Coal
(Spot) 80
200
Australian Steaming Coal - Consensus
60
150
40
100 Central Appalachian US Coal Futures
20 (US$/short ton, NYMEX)
50
Australian Steaming Coal (Contract) 0
0 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Credit Suisse 35.0 37.5 40.0 40.0 41.6% 40.0 40.0 50.0 50.0
Investec 34.0 34.0 38.0 38.0 34.5% 40.0 40.0 42.0 42.0
Liberum Capital 32.5 32.5 35.0 35.0 23.9% 37.5 37.5 40.0 40.0
Macquarie 30.0 32.0 34.0 34.0 20.4% 36.0 36.0 38.0 38.0
Commonwealth Bank 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 16.8% 34.0 33.0 32.0 32.0
Australia Dept of Industry 31.8 31.8 31.0 31.0 9.7% 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0
Consensus (Mean) 32.8 34.7 37.1 38.1 34.7% 39.4 40.5 41.9 41.9
Standard Deviation 2.9 4.3 5.7 7.1 6.9 8.8 10.2 10.2
30
50 35
25
25 30 NYMEX Futures
20
0 25 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Ja n 2004 Jan 200 6 Jan 20 08 Ja n 2 010 Jan 201 2 Jan 201 4 Jan 20 16 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Resurgence on Hold
Uranium Futures September 2016 Contract (NYMEX)
The spot price of uranium has dropped 17.5%
US$
US$/lb, Closing Price
in the year to date to US$28.25/lb, mainly
40 depressed by demand risks, the current low
cost of alternative energy, and high supply
35 of the fuel from mines in Kazakhstan,
Canada and Australia.
30 Confidence was lifted in early June, as a new
Uranium futures started trading US nuclear reactor came online for the first
25 on NYMEX in May 2007. Volume is time in 20 years. The long-term outlook for
thin due to off-market trading and atomic fuel remains supported by the need
its specialised and limited use.
20 to reduce carbon emissions.
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 The consensus is predicting that uranium will
remain below US$50/lb until 2018.
World Nuclear Electricity Production (2010) Uranium futures began trading on NYMEX in May
Producers Installed Capacity Nuclear power as a % of 2007 in an attempt to introduce greater price trans-
(% share of World) (Gigawatts) total domestic electricity parency. Volumes and liquidity are currently very
USA 30.4% USA 101 France 75.9% low (see chart above left).
France 15.6% France 63 Ukraine 47.3% Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/lb Contract
Japan 10.4% Japan 49 South Korea 29.9% Size: 250lbs Trading Months: 60 consecutive
Russia 6.2% Russia 24 Japan 26.0% months. Settlement price: The final settlement price
S. Korea 5.4% Germany 20 Germany 22.6% is the spot-month end price published by UxC.
US$ Aluminium Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
3500 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$/metric tonne 1750
US$/metric tonne
3000
1700
2500 LME Futures
1650
2000
Consensus
1600
1500
1550
1000
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Abundant Supply
Aluminium 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Price dynamics in the aluminium industry
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
US$ remain heavily influenced by output in the
000s
1750 3000 worlds largest producer, China. Despite no-
2900 table output cuts at the end of last year,
1650 smelter activity may pick up again as price
2800
gains in the year to date (particularly in the
1550 2700 domestic market) encourage producers to re-
2600 start idled capacity.
1450 The growth of new low-cost smelters, along
3-Month Forward Daily LME Warehouse 2500
with continued government support for those
High/Low/Close (lhs) Stocks, Daily (rhs)
1350 2400 that are loss-making, seems likely to sup-
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 port excesses of the metal. Our panellists
(table above) expect little price improvement
World Aluminium Demand and Supply Consensus over the next four quarters.
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts
Aluminium: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Supply 42.3 47.8 50.8 53.8 57.2 59.1 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 41.3 47.4 50.4 53.6 56.6 59.0 for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Wednesday for 7 months out to 123 months. Con-
Balance 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.1
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015
tracts Traded: 59,880,649 (2015).
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
BoA Merrill Lynch 280.0 300.0 290.0 290.0 13.6% 290.0 290.0 na na
UBS 270.0 280.0 285.0 290.0 13.6% 290.0 295.0 300.0 300.0
RBC Capital Markets 258.5 254.0 289.4 289.4 13.4% 289.4 289.4 308.6 308.6
Capital Economics 265.0 270.0 280.0 285.0 11.7% 295.0 300.0 na na
Investec 265.4 265.4 274.0 274.0 7.4% 277.8 277.8 290.0 290.0
Morgan Stanley 247.0 250.0 260.0 260.0 1.9% 260.0 260.0 na na
Australia Dept of Industry 255.0 255.0 256.9 256.9 0.7% 256.9 256.9 256.9 297.9
Credit Suisse 240.0 240.0 250.0 250.0 -2.0% 250.0 250.0 260.0 260.0
Liberum Capital 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 -10.2% 229.3 229.3 246.9 246.9
Commonwealth Bank 240.0 235.0 230.0 225.0 -11.8% 220.0 220.0 225.0 230.0
Macquarie 225.0 225.0 220.0 220.0 -13.8% 220.0 220.0 240.0 240.0
Consensus (Mean) 252.3 254.9 260.4 260.9 2.2% 261.7 262.6 265.9 271.7
300 260
200 255
100 250
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
0
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
Alumina is derived from bauxite ore and is used to produce primary alu- World Production of Alumina
minium at a ratio of two tonnes of alumina per tonne of aluminium. Prices can
be linked to the LME primary aluminium price. (100.5 million tonnes, 2012)
Aluminium Alloy prices provide a reference basis for the secondary alu- Producer % of world total
minium market. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 1. China 27.8%
20 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays 2. Australia 18.3%
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7 months 3. Indonesia 12.9%
out to 27 months. Contracts Traded: 217,503 (2015). 4. Brazil 11.4%
Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price, LME Aluminium vs Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price Differential
US$ US$/metric tonne US$ US$/metric tonne
3000 900
700
2500
500
2000
300
1500
100
1000
Price on Survey
Date: US$1530 -100
500 -300
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
US$ Copper, Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
11000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
10000
US$/metric tonne 5100
US$/metric tonne
9000 5000
8000 Consensus
4900
7000
6000 4800
5000 COMEX Futures
4700
4000
3000 4600
2000 LME Futures
4500
1000
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Copper 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Prices Pinned Down by High Inventories
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes, After a brief rally earlier in the year, confi-
US$ 000s dence in the red metal has fallen back,
5250
LME Warehouse
280 although our panel remain optimistic of a
Stocks, Daily (rhs) slight rebound in the near-term.
5000
240 Data from the International Copper Study
4750 Group showed a surplus in refined output in
200 January and February, although adverse
4500 weather in the world's largest producer Chile
4250
160 may have plugged some of the gap in April.
3-Month Forward, Daily Major producers such as BHP Billiton and
High/Low/Close (lhs)
4000 120 Rio Tinto remain eager to expand their cop-
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 per operations, with cost-cutting measures
supporting plans for new projects.
World Copper Demand and Supply Consensus Copper: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month
Supply 19.6 20.1 21.1 22.5 22.9 23.5 to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday
Demand 19.7 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.7 23.4 for 7 months out to 123 months. Contracts Traded:
38,557,831 (2015). US Futures Market: COMEX
Balance -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 Pricing: USc/lb Lot Size: 25,000lbs Deliverability:
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 24 consecutive months.
14 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 NICKEL
Survey Date Spot Price Nickel Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Jun. 20): US$9210 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Econ Intelligence Unit 11019 12489 13264 14036 52.4% 14256 14808 15285 16792
Credit Suisse 11250 13000 13000 13000 41.1% 13900 13900 15000 15000
BoA Merrill Lynch 9500 10000 10000 12500 35.7% 10500 10000 na na
Morgan Stanley 11244 11464 12346 12346 34.0% 12125 12125 na na
Macquarie 9251 10501 11001 11499 24.9% 12000 12000 13001 13001
RBC Capital Markets 9149 9149 11023 11023 19.7% 11023 11023 13228 13228
TD Economics 9250 9820 10472 11023 19.7% 13228 13779 na na
UBS 9480 10141 10472 11023 19.7% 11023 11574 12125 12676
CIBC 9250 9250 10865 10865 18.0% 10865 10865 na na
BIPE 9050 9530 10466 10860 17.9% 11300 11740 na na
IHS Global Insight 9175 9633 10211 10722 16.4% 11258 11821 12294 na
Oxford Economics 9050 10006 10203 10521 14.2% 10724 11029 11409 11823
Deutsche Bank 8800 10250 9500 10500 14.0% 10000 11000 na na
Prometeia 9021 9353 10036 9955 8.1% 10106 10199 10441 10577
Capital Economics 8625 8875 9250 9750 5.9% 10250 10750 na na
Timetric 8844 9061 9312 9689 5.2% 9833 10050 10239 13179
Australia Dept of Industry 8838 8838 9638 9638 4.6% 9638 9638 9638 10538
Scotiabank 8598 8598 9414 9634 4.6% 10075 10516 na na
Euromonitor International 9262 9356 9488 9557 3.8% 9618 9679 9786 9920
Citigroup 8500 8600 8700 9200 -0.1% 9300 9350 na na
Investec 8532 8532 9039 9039 -1.9% 10141 10141 11574 11574
CPM Group 8550 8700 8950 8890 -3.5% 9180 9350 9350 9500
Liberum Capital 8816 8816 8816 8816 -4.3% 8816 8816 9918 9918
Bank of China International 8500 8600 8800 8800 -4.5% na na na na
Commonwealth Bank 8598 8378 8267 7937 -13.8% 8047 8157 8311 8444
Consensus (Mean) 9206 9638 10101 10433 13.3% 10717 10930 11440 11869
High 11250 13000 13264 14036 14256 14808 15285 16792
Low 8500 8378 8267 7937 8047 8157 8311 8444
Standard Deviation 801 1193 1291 1455 1527 1613 2056 2287
US$ Nickel Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
60000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
12500
US$/metric tonne
50000
11500
40000 Consensus
30000 10500
20000
9500
10000
LME Futures
8500
0 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Consensus (Mean) 1752 1770 1784 1774 4.2% 1791 1792 1769 1789
High 1940 2249 2359 2205 2350 2205 2101 2200
Low 1582 1516 1433 1323 1213 1124 1135 1146
Standard Deviation 82 143 176 172 218 218 227 243
US$ Lead Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
4000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
1850
3500 US$/metric tonne
Consensus
3000 1800
2500
2000 1750
1500
LME Futures
1700
1000
500
1650
0
Spot Sep D ec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Lead 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks,LME Modest Price Increases
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close Statistics from the International Lead and
US$ tonnes,
000s Zinc Study Group showed a 23kt surplus in
2000
3-Month Forward Daily
240 the lead market between January and April.
High/Low/Close (lhs) 220 Demand has fallen at a steeper rate than
1900
200 supply so far this year.
1800 180
Road safety concerns have led to a
crackdown on electric bikes (a large market
1700 160
for lead batteries) by some Chinese cities.
LME Warehouse 140 Also, a 4% lead battery tax enforced at the
1600 Stocks, Daily (rhs) 120 start of 2016 may spark a gradual shift
1500 100 towards more efficient lithium-ion batteries.
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Our panel expect a rather restrained increase
in the price level over the forecast horizon.
World Lead Demand and Supply Consensus The price of Lead, which is used mainly for batter-
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts ies, can be related to that of zinc as the metals are
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 co-produced. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
Supply 10.6 10.6 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.4 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.4
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Balance 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Wednesday for 7 months out to 63 months. Con-
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 tracts Traded: 12,522,608 (2015).
16 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 ZINC
Survey Date Spot Price Zinc, Special High Grade, Forecasts, US$/MT, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Jun. 20): US$1990 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Scotiabank 1896 1984 2315 2668 34.1% 2888 3109 na na
RBC Capital Markets 1874 1874 2425 2425 21.9% 2425 2425 2866 2866
BoA Merrill Lynch 2100 2300 2293 2300 15.6% 2250 2250 na na
Macquarie 2000 2101 2149 2251 13.1% 2401 2500 2449 2551
TD Economics 1900 1950 2116 2205 10.8% 2315 2425 na na
BIPE 1960 2040 2100 2150 8.1% 2230 2300 na na
IHS Global Insight 2037 2084 2078 2118 6.5% 2140 2175 2155 na
Moody's Analytics 1969 2008 2048 2110 6.0% 2131 2152 2173 2195
Capital Economics 1965 1990 2025 2075 4.3% 2125 2175 na na
Bank of China International 1900 1950 2000 2000 0.5% na na na na
Credit Suisse 1900 1900 2000 2000 0.5% 2200 2200 2150 2150
Morgan Stanley 1764 1874 1984 1984 -0.3% 1984 1984 na na
Citigroup 1880 1900 1950 1970 -1.0% 2000 2030 na na
CPM Group 1835 1885 1925 1910 -4.0% 1955 1985 1985 2010
CIBC 1700 1700 1908 1908 -4.1% 1908 1908 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 1780 1900 1900 1880 -5.5% 1950 1970 2000 2100
Timetric 1668 1771 1819 1877 -5.7% 1890 1916 1941 2203
Liberum Capital 1763 1763 1873 1873 -5.8% 1984 1984 1984 1984
Euromonitor International 1869 1864 1863 1858 -6.6% 1857 1858 1867 1882
Australia Dept of Industry 1705 1705 1855 1855 -6.8% 1855 1855 1855 1979
Banco de Credito del Peru 1700 1800 1850 1823 -8.4% 1750 1750 1750 1750
Prometeia 1898 1865 1807 1798 -9.6% 1834 1858 1870 1889
Investec 1764 1764 1786 1786 -10.2% 1808 1808 1830 1830
Deutsche Bank 1750 1720 1760 1780 -10.5% 1830 1880 na na
UBS 1984 1984 1896 1764 -11.4% 1720 1653 1653 1764
Oxford Economics 1800 1750 1700 1760 -11.5% 1780 1800 1820 1830
Commonwealth Bank 1852 1764 1676 1631 -18.0% 1582 1598 1615 1631
Consensus (Mean) 1860 1896 1967 1991 0.1% 2030 2060 1998 2038
High 2100 2300 2425 2668 2888 3109 2866 2866
Low 1668 1700 1676 1631 1582 1598 1615 1631
Standard Deviation 112 140 183 231 278 319 304 314
US$ Zinc, Special High Grade Spot Price (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
5000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
21 00
4500
US$/metric tonne
4000
3500
20 00
3000
2500
2000 LME Futures
19 00
1500
1000 Consensus
500 18 00
0 S po t Se p D ec Ma r Ju n Sep D ec Ma r Ju n
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2 01 6 2 01 6 2 01 7 20 1 7 20 17 20 17 20 18 20 18
Zinc 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Positive Performance
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
Zinc has been the star performer amongst
US$ 000s the base metals so far this year, up around
2200 600 25% on our survey date, with prices recently
3-Month Forward Daily
High/Low/Close (lhs) fluctuating close to US$2000/T.
2000 550
Supply fundamentals have been bolstered by
1800 500 several mine closures and output cutbacks.
Dwindling ore concentrates could keep a lid
1600 LME Warehouse 450
Stocks, Daily (rhs) on future refining activity by smelters, par-
1400 400
ticularly in China.
China's reliance on investment spending and
1200 350 a resurgence in property prices should
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 support demand and help sustain Zincs price
improvement close to current levels.
World Zinc Demand and Supply Consensus Zincs primary use is in galvanising steel. Futures
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 25 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Dates: Daily for cash
Supply 13.1 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.4 to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Demand 12.7 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7
months out to 63 months. Contracts Traded:
Balance 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 28,751,185 (2015).
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 17
STEEL OCTOBER 2007
JUNE 2016
Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (Europe, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Jun. 20): US$495.0 e
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
IHS Global Insight 462.0 432.0 439.6 450.8 -8.9% 454.8 462.7 473.5 na
Oxford Economics 427.9 440.0 441.5 442.8 -10.5% 449.4 445.2 453.3 465.2
MEPS 480.0 420.0 420.0 440.0 -11.1% 430.0 415.0 450.0 465.0
Macquarie 400.0 355.0 405.0 405.0 -18.2% 405.0 405.0 370.0 370.0
BoA Merrill Lynch 402.0 412.0 394.0 394.0 -20.4% 394.0 394.0 na na
Morgan Stanley 363.4 346.9 371.5 391.8 -20.9% 374.7 360.1 na na
Consensus (Mean) 422.6 401.0 411.9 420.7 -15.0% 418.0 413.7 436.7 433.4
Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (USA, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/short ton, fob
(Jun. 20): US$635.0 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 538.4 495.9 479.9 484.5 -23.7% 484.0 484.3 466.4 453.1
Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (China, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Jun. 20): US$420.0 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 360.6 344.1 349.7 362.3 -13.7% 364.3 366.8 375.0 384.6
High 420.5 395.0 400.0 415.0 405.0 397.5 410.0 430.0
Low 307.0 272.0 307.0 320.0 320.0 320.0 310.0 310.0
Standard Deviation 46.4 48.5 33.3 31.7 30.2 29.5 44.8 65.1
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Consensus Price for North China Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, cfr
Q3: US$47.16 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from Q3
Euromonitor International 59.92 60.85 62.02 62.62 32.8% 63.09 63.31 63.75 64.30
IHS Global Insight 49.45 51.50 51.52 53.75 14.0% 53.47 53.75 54.42 na
Macquarie 52.00 48.00 52.00 52.00 10.3% 48.00 48.00 50.00 47.00
ETLA 55.00 55.00 50.00 50.00 6.0% 50.00 50.00 55.00 na
BoA Merrill Lynch 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 1.8% 48.00 48.00 na na
Capital Economics 49.00 45.00 45.00 46.00 -2.5% 49.00 51.00 na na
UBS 43.00 40.00 47.00 46.00 -2.5% 43.00 42.00 50.00 52.00
Credit Suisse 40.00 40.00 45.00 45.00 -4.6% 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00
Investec 46.00 46.00 45.00 45.00 -4.6% 44.00 44.00 43.00 43.00
RBC Capital Markets 60.00 55.00 45.00 45.00 -4.6% 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00
Deutsche Bank 40.00 43.00 46.00 42.00 -10.9% 45.00 50.00 na na
Timetric 50.00 46.00 44.00 42.00 -10.9% 42.00 40.00 40.00 47.00
Commonwealth Bank 48.00 42.00 39.00 38.00 -19.4% 38.00 41.00 43.00 44.00
Morgan Stanley 32.00 30.00 37.00 38.00 -19.4% 38.00 36.00 na na
Liberum Capital 35.00 35.00 37.00 37.00 -21.5% 37.00 37.00 40.00 40.00
Consensus (Mean) 47.16 45.69 46.24 46.02 -2.4% 45.24 45.60 47.65 46.92
High 60.00 60.85 62.02 62.62 63.09 63.31 63.75 64.30
Low 32.00 30.00 37.00 37.00 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00
Standard Deviation 8.15 7.99 6.34 6.74 7.24 7.59 7.72 7.51
Consensus Price for Australian Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Q3: US$41.42 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from Q3
1
Consensus (Mean) 41.42 38.79 38.76 38.29 -7.6% 36.40 36.05 39.33 38.91
High 54.56 49.56 46.60 45.90 43.00 43.00 48.00 43.00
Low 29.00 26.50 31.00 31.00 29.00 29.00 33.00 33.00
Standard Deviation 8.17 7.41 4.78 4.69 4.81 4.74 4.65 3.15
Q3: US$47.03 e Australian Lump Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
1
Consensus (Mean) 47.03 44.45 45.85 46.08 -2.0% 45.05 45.07 49.82 50.26
High 66.96 58.86 56.00 56.00 56.00 56.00 61.40 61.40
Low 33.35 29.15 37.82 37.82 38.44 38.44 43.59 43.59
Standard Deviation 10.59 9.19 6.85 6.36 5.70 5.57 6.61 6.84
Consensus Price for Brazilian Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Q3: US$43.69 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from Q3
Consensus (Mean) 1 43.69 40.62 40.95 41.50 -5.0% 39.84 38.26 42.16 43.92
High 57.00 52.00 51.50 60.00 57.00 54.00 53.00 66.00
Low 24.50 22.50 28.50 29.50 26.72 23.87 28.79 31.21
Standard Deviation 11.56 11.60 9.21 11.53 11.16 11.47 11.70 15.46
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet service.
Until April 2014, Iron ore was traded in world markets under contracts, with Consensus Forecast Prices
prices set by negotiation between iron ore producers and steel manufacturers. 56
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
Three suppliers, Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton account for most ocean trade
52
US$/T Australian
in iron ore, in which China remains by far the largest consumer. Fines are the China Lump, fob
most heavily traded category, while lump has generally traded at a premium 48 Fines, cfr
price. The annual benchmark price system has been dropped in favour of
quarterly prices based on prior average daily spot prices. 44
40
US$ Fines and Lump Iron Ore Prices
US$ per dry metric tonne 36 Brazilian
200 Australian
Fines, fob
180
Fines, fob
A u s tr a lia n L u mp 32
160 B r a z il Fin e s
Spot Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018
140 No r th Ch in a Fin e s
120
Baltic Capesize Index of Shipping Rates
100
20000
80 15000
60
10000
40
20 5000
0 0
Ja n 2 0 0 4 Ja n 2 0 0 6 Ja n 2 0 0 8 Ja n 2 0 1 0 Ja n 2 0 1 2 Ja n 2 0 1 4 Ja n 2 0 1 6 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
Annual contract prices prior to April 2010
TIN (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$ Tin has its physical spot market
% 35000 centred in Kuala Lumpur with the
Forecast Range
US$/metric Consensus change LME recognised as the principal
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low 30000 hedging market.
Spot price 17005
Sep 2016 16499 -3.0% 17236 15432 25000 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
US$/tonne Contract Size: 5
Dec 2016 16521 -2.8% 17250 15249
20000 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Options:
Mar 2017 16706 -1.8% 17650 15000 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Jun 2017 16850 -0.9% 18100 15000 15000 Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Sep 2017 16985 -0.1% 18250 15334 Tin, Spot month contracts; then every third
10000
Price, LME Wednesday for 7 months out to 15
Dec 2017 17187 1.1% 18900 15076 US$/metric tonne,
months. Contracts Traded:
1.5% 19841 14910 fob
Mar 2018 17268 5000 1,463,139 (2015).
Jun 2018 17301 1.7% 19841 14807 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Jun 2017 5.950 -22.8% 7.144 5.000 Futures Market: LME (since Feb-
10
-20.7% 7.371 5.000
ruary 2010) Pricing: US$/tonne
Sep 2017 6.112
5 Contract Size: 6 tonnes Mo (+/-5%
Dec 2017 6.184 -19.8% 7.598 5.000 (Mo content 57-63%) Delivery Op-
Mar 2018 6.571 -14.8% 7.500 5.500 0 tions: 10 tonnes (RMC), deliverable
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jun 2018 6.508 -15.6% 7.500 5.500 in 200 or 250kg drums.
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
800 1225
600
Consensus
1200
400
1175
200 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Consensus (Mean) 1017 1025 1052 1061 7.9% 1084 1112 1145 1142
1000 1.4
1.2 1000
750
1.0 NYMEX Futures
500 950
0.8
Platinum/Gold Spot Price Ratio (rhs) Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
250 0.6 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
Consensus (Mean) 601.7 613.2 632.3 645.8 18.3% 672.9 688.0 685.7 714.5
400 600
300
550
200 NYMEX Futures
100 500
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
0 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
60.0 Brent1
85
40.0
Nominal 75
Real 6-10 Year Consensus
20.0
Crude Oil Price Forecasts WTI
65
0.0 1
Long-term forecasts for Brent included from April 2011.
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 55
US Natural Gas Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts
US$/MMBtu Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
16.0
Spot: 2.73 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
14.0 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
12.0
12.0
10.0
Real
10.0
8.0 Adjusted Series
6.0
8.0 US Natural Gas Prices,
Real 6-10 Year Consensus
4.0 6.0
Nominal Forecasts
2.0
4.0
0.0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 2.0
40000 21000
20000
30000 Adjusted Series
19000
20000 18000
17000
Nickel Prices,
10000
Nominal Real 6-10 Year Consensus
16000
0 Forecasts
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 15000
4000
Spot: 1702 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
3500
Real 2400
3000 2200
2500 2000
Adjusted Series
2000 1800
1500
1600
1000
1400
Lead Prices,
500 Nominal Real 6-10 Year Consensus Forecasts
1200
0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 1000
800 1000
600
Real Spot: 1290 Adjusted Series
900
400
Nominal 800
Gold Prices,
200 Real 6-10 Year Consensus
700
0 Forecasts
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 600
15.0 14.0
10.0
Real 12.0
5.0
Nominal Silver Prices,
10.0
Real 6-10 Year Consensus Forecasts
0.0 8.0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16
% Change
60.0
50.0
Uranium
40.0
30.0
Nickel
20.0
Gold
-10.0
-20.0
Spot Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
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06/2016 EMCF