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JUNE 2016

ENERGY & METALS Commodity Price


Surveys Since 1995
CONSENSUS FORECASTS
WTI Al Cu Ni Pb Zn Sn Fe Au Ag Pt $
Survey Date
June 20, 2016
Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts surveys more than 40 energy and metals analysts every
month for a range of commodity price forecasts. The results covering over 30 commodities together
with reference data, analysis, special surveys, and the underlying global macroeconomic outlook
are sent to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.

Contents Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Commodity Price


Page Trends and Forecasts: A Special Analysis
Overview ................................................ 2 In this months special analysis on pages 26 and 27, we review
how major commodity prices have moved in recent years and
Macroeconomic Outlook ...................... 3 consider how inflation-adjusted price projections can alter senti-
ment over the longer-term horizon.
Commodity Price Indices ..................... 4
Overview
Long-Term Forecasts (2016-2025) .......... 5 Confidence in Energy and Metals continues to be constrained
by uncertainty about the global economy, both in the short and
Individual Commodity Forecasts
Crude Oil .............................................. 6 long term. Fears about a slowdown in China, which consumes
Gasoline & Heating Oil ......................... 7 about half or more of annual demand for some commodities,
Gas Oil, Ethanol and Corn ................... 8 intensified in May, following fresh volatility in the renminbi. A
Natural Gas .......................................... 9 semblance of stability returned in June, but high levels of debt in
Coal ................................................... 10 its economy, which expanded only 6.7% (y-o-y) in Q1, could
Uranium ............................................. 11 have serious global financial ramifications. Combined with the
risk of Brexit (UK referendum held just after our survey date)
Aluminium .......................................... 12 and a marked deterioration in US employment readings, the US
Alumina .............................................. 13
Fed could not justify earlier warnings of a rate hike on June 15.
Copper ............................................... 14
Nickel ................................................ 15 True, Brent (page 6), Copper (page 14), Gold (page 22), Iron
Lead ................................................... 16 Ore (page 19) and Steel (page 18) performed well in April and
Zinc ................................................... 17 May, albeit for different reasons (see chart below). However, the
(continued on page 2)
Steel .................................................. 18
Iron Ore .............................................. 19
Tin, Cobalt, Manganese ..................... 20
Molybdenum, Rutile, Ilmenite, Zircon 21

Gold ................................................... 22
Silver ................................................. 23
Platinum ............................................ 24
Palladium ........................................... 25

Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Price Trends:


- A Special Analysis ........................ 26-27

Chart of Commodity Forecasts ........... 28

The next issue of Energy & Metals Consensus


Forecasts will be available on July 22, 2016.

Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1754-825X) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Editor: Che-Wing Pang
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom editors@consensuseconomics.com Assistant Editors: Robert Hunt
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 www.consensuseconomics.com Luke N. George
Natalie Smith
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
electronic, photocopying, digitization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take any 1
responsibility for the information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
OVERVIEW JUNE 2016
(continued from front page)
upturn in crude oil partly reflects unplanned supply outages Despite their recent drop, Zinc (page 17) and Tin (page 20)
in an environment where excess continues to hamper expec- have outperformed most other base metals in the year to
tations (see Global Crude Oil Demand and Supply Balances date, due to structural supply deficits and the need for higher
on page 6). The earlier surge in iron ore, a key ingredient in prices to make new mines financially viable. Gold is at multi
the production of steel, also ran out of steam last month, year highs, supported by a surge in risk aversion and de-
bringing with it a decline in other commodities. Headwinds to mand for safe haven assets, but the pace of its climb will be
base metals could strengthen in the second half of 2016 in difficult to sustain. On page 5, we feature updated Long-
response to high supply and softer demand from China, as Term Forecasts for over 25 commodities, covering the years
underlined by stockpiles at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. 2016 to 2025.

SUMMARY OF SELECT ENERGY & METALS CONSENSUS FORECASTS


See individual commodity % change Spot Price Forecast %
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
pages for mineral Change to
See since end Jun. 20 Consensus Forecasts Jun. 2017
specifications
page Dec. 2015 2016 Dec. 2016 Mar. 2017 Jun. 2017 Quarter

Crude Oil - Brent (US$/bbl) 6 +32.6% 48.53 47.19 50.08 51.87 +6.9%
- WTI (US$/bbl) 7 +33.0% 49.40 46.36 49.70 51.17 +3.6%
Natural Gas (US, US$/MMBtu) 9 +19.7% 2.730 2.537 2.842 2.831 +3.7%
Coal (Steaming, US$/tonne) 10 -2.4% 50.58 50.55 48.90 48.93 -3.3%
Uranium (US$/lb) 11 -17.5% 28.25 34.70 37.06 38.06 +34.7%

Aluminium (US$/tonne) 12 +6.6% 1608 1567 1588 1600 -0.5%


Alumina (US$/tonne) 13 +6.2% 255.2 254.9 260.4 260.9 +2.2%
Copper (US$/tonne) 14 -2.5% 4585 4781 4883 4902 +6.9%
Nickel (US$/tonne) 15 +6.3% 9210 9638 10101 10433 +13.3%
Lead (US$/tonne) 16 -4.8% 1702 1770 1784 1774 +4.2%
Zinc (US$/tonne) 17 +24.9% 1990 1896 1967 1991 +0.1%
Tin (US$/tonne) 20 +18.5% 17005 16521 16706 16850 -0.9%

Steel (HRC, Europe, US$/tonne) 18 +46.0% 495.0 401.0 411.9 420.7 -15.0%
Iron Ore (N. China. Fine, US$/tonne) 19 +2.1% 47.16 45.69 46.24 46.02 -2.4%

Gold (US$/oz.) 22 +21.5% 1290 1236 1234 1221 -5.3%


Silver (US$/oz.) 23 +26.3% 17.48 16.30 16.59 16.46 -5.8%
Platinum (US$/oz.) 24 +11.7% 984 1025 1052 1061 +7.9%
Palladium (US$/oz.) 25 +1.7% 545.9 613.2 632.3 645.8 +18.3%

NOTES, ABBREVIATIONS, WEIGHTS AND MEASURES JUNE 2016


WTI West Texas Intermediate e Estimate
EIA Energy Information Agency (USA) na Not Available
LME London Metal Exchange fob Free On Board
LBMA London Bullion Market Association bbl Barrel
LPPM London Platinum and Palladium Market dltu Dry long tonne unit (1/100 of a dry long tonne)
NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange dmtu Dry metric tonne unit (1/100 of a dry metric tonne)
COMEX New York Commodities Exchange MMBtu Millions of British Thermal Units (Btu)
ICE Intercontinental Exchange rhs/lhs right-hand scale/left-hand scale
All individual commodity forecasts on pages 6-25 (pages 4-23 in abridged versions) are listed in descending order of their
approximate 1-year percentage change estimates. Consensus forecasts are mean averages of individual quarterly average
forecasts.

Historical price data in this publication has been provided by Commodity Research Bureau and other sources.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and Industrial Production are expressed
as average percentage changes over the previous calendar year unless otherwise indicated.
1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces 1 short ton = 0.907 metric tonnes = 2000 pounds

1kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds 1 barrel = 42 US gallons

1,000 kilograms = 1 metric tonne = 2204.6 pounds 10 Therms of Natural Gas = 1 million Btu = 1MMBtu

1 long tonne = 1.016 metric tonnes = 2240 pounds 1 metric/long tonne unit (MTU/LTU) = 1/100 of a metric/long tonne
2 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic growth rates provide a valuable insight into the behaviour of energy and metals prices, with industrial production
growth forecasts in particular giving an overview of the likely demand for many commodities. The forecasts below are
taken from the current issues of our publications Consensus Forecasts G7 & Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus
Forecasts, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts.

REAL GDP GROWTH Consensus INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH Consensus


(% change on previous year) Forecasts (% change on previous year) Forecasts
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
United States 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.3 United States 1.9 2.9 0.3 -0.4 2.3
China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.3 China 9.7 8.3 6.1 5.8 5.4
Japan 1.4 -0.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 Japan -0.6 2.1 -1.2 -0.6 1.9
Euro zone -0.3 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 Euro zone -0.7 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.8
World1 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.8 World 0.6 3.1 1.3 1.7 2.7
1
Country weights available to qualified subscribers upon request.
2016 REAL GDP GROWTH 2016 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Consensus Forecasts From Surveys Of: Consensus Forecasts From Surveys Of:
2015 2016 2015 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
3.2 7.0 3.5 8.5

3.0
Japan (lhs)
2.8 6.9 8.0
United States (lhs) 2.5 United States (lhs)
2.4 7.5
6.8 2.0
Euro Zone
2.0 Euro Zone (lhs) 1.5
6.7 (lhs) 7.0
1.6 1.0
Japan (lhs) 6.6 0.5 6.5
1.2
0.0 China (rhs)
6.5 6.0
0.8 -0.5
China (rhs) 5.5
0.4 6.4 -1.0

Lingering Global Economic Risks reading for May has magnified concerns about growth, fol-
Following a difficult start to 2016, which saw forecasts for lowing its poor Q1 GDP performance. US Federal Reserve
several major countries downgraded over several months officials including chair Janet Yellen had earlier warned of
(chart above), confidence in the global economy has strug- an impending rate hike, subject to data developments. How-
gled to return. The consensus has lifted its GDP growth ex- ever, no change in policy occurred on June 15 and a slower
pectations for China (red line), from around 6.4% in March to pace of monetary tightening now appears likely during the
6.6% in our June survey, as increases in public spending second half of 2016. Across the Atlantic, a spotlight has
and a tightening of exchange controls from Beijing alleviated been kept on the UK, as it held a referendum on June 23
fears of a near-term slowdown. Yet fundamental problems in (just after our survey date) to decide whether to remain in or
the Chinese economy were highlighted by its dependence on to leave the European Union. The outcome of the vote will
state investment in Q1. Questions are also being asked about have a significant effect on perceptions regarding risks in
Chinese exchange rate policy, after the renminbi dropped 1.6% Europe, which faces complex domestic and foreign policy
in May, its second-largest recent decline after the 2.6% slide challenges. The consensus is predicting that the euro zone
in August 2015. In the US, a very weak non-farm payrolls will expand 1.6% in 2016, the same as in 2015 and 2017.
1.6 75 EXCHANGE RATES Source: Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts,
Japanese (per US dollar) June 13, 2016
80
1.5 Consensus
85
yen per Consensus
Spot Consensus Forecasts
Forecasts 1
US $ per Rate
US$ Forecasts
End Sep End Jun % change End Jun
90 currency unit Jun. 13
1.4 2016 2017 from spot 2018
95
-2.1
100 Euro 1.130 1.112 1.106 1.127
1.3
105 Japanese yen 106.3 110.1 114.0 -6.8 115.1
-5.0
1.2
110 Australian dollar 0.740 0.738 0.703 0.728
US$ per 115 Chinese renminbi 6.586 6.643 6.768 -2.7 6.825
1.1 Euro 120 Canadian dollar 1.276 1.311 1.292 -1.3 1.268
125 Brazilian real 3.451 3.779 3.940 -12.4 4.031
1.0
Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13 Jan 16
130
Indian rupee 67.11 67.78 68.58 -2.2 68.25
Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13 Jan 16

Spike in Currency Volatility dollar. However, a rate move at the meeting appeared un-
FX movements continue to be affected by risk perceptions likely after US jobs growth in May fell to its lowest level in
and monetary policy speculation as investors await the first more than five years. US rates were kept unchanged, as
US rate hike of 2016 six months into the year. US Federal expected, last week, with the risk of Brexit (i.e. the UK vot-
Reserve officials spoke in May of the possibility of higher ing to leave the European Union on June 23) another risk
rates as early as June 15, which lifted demand for the US factor behind the decision to keep policy on hold.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 3
COMMODITY PRICE INDICES JUNE 2016

Commodity price indices are useful aggregates of individual commodity price trends. We focus here on two commodity price
indices: The Economist Base Metals Index (which weights the prices of major base metals according to their share of
world trade in 2005) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Non-Rural Commodity Price Index (which weights the
prices of major minerals according to their share of Australian exports in 2014/2015). Both indices are expressed as US$
prices in a given base year and track the performance of their particular subset of commodities. In addition to showing
historical data from the two indices, we also show consensus forecasts for both over the next ten quarters. These are
calculated from weighting consensus commodity price forecasts from this editions survey. In the first two charts below, we
also show the highest and lowest projections over the forecast horizon in order to illustrate the range of forecasts.

The Economist Base Metals Index RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
220 (US$ price index, 2005=100) (US$ price index, Fiscal Year 2014/15 = 100)
220
Consensus Weights By Share of Aust. Export Values: Consensus
Forecasts 200 Forecasts
180 180
160 Consensus
High
140 140 Low
120
100 100
Coking Coal (21%)
80 Thermal Coal (14%) [LNG (7%)]
Weights By Share of World Trade: Copper (4%)
60 Consensus Gold (13%)
Aluminium (47%) Zinc (7%) 60
High Iron Ore Lump (13%) Nickel (4%)
Copper (32%) Lead (3%) Zinc (2%)
Low 40 Aluminium (11%)
Nickel (8%) Tin (3%) Lead (1%)
Alumina (10%)
20 20
Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018

The Economist Base Metals Index is a sub-index of The RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is a
the headline Economist Commodity Price Index, containing sub-index of the RBAs Headline Index of Commodity
six base metals: Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Prices. The index uses an Australian fiscal base year 2014/
Zinc. The index base year is 2005 = 100, and the headline 2015 (July to June) and weights major minerals (listed
index is available in sterling and euros, as well as US dol- above) according to their share of Australian export val-
lars. It is published on a weekly basis. Energy & Metals ues. Oil is excluded while liquefied natural gas (LNG) is
Consensus Forecasts then converts this week-by-week data included (it is some 7% of the index, but is not included in
into quarterly averages and calculates the index forecasts Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts calculations, as
by using our panellists projections for the individual metals. we do not survey for LNG forecasts).

Recent Historical Data and Projections Using Consensus Forecasts


2015 2016 2017 2018
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Economist Base Metals Index 104.3 103.2 106.8 106.9 108.2 110.4 111.3 112.7 113.9 115.0 115.7
RBA Non-Rural Commodity 73.79 71.58 77.64 74.23 74.01 74.78 74.99 75.13 75.66 77.43 78.18
Price Index (all index values are quarterly averages)

Changes in the Consensus: Changes in the Consensus:


The Economist Base Metals Index RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
210 220
200
190
180
170
160
150 140
130 120
Historical Data 100
110 Historical Data
Feb 2016 Survey 80
90 Feb 2016 Survey
Apr 2016 Survey 60 Apr 2016 Survey
70 Jun 2016 Survey 40 Jun 2016 Survey
50 20
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 LONG-TERM FORECASTS
Individual nominal forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Long-term price forecasts provide a foundation for expected returns from both existing production facilities and those under
development. In addition to their annual forecasts for the years 2016 to 2020, the table below summarises our panels
Long-Term 5-10 year average estimates (2021-2025) in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) 2016 dollar terms.

Consensus Forecasts
See individual commodity US$
Average Long-Term
pages for mineral (US$ Nominal, Annual Averages)
(2021-2025 Average)
specifications
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal Real
Crude Oil - Brent 99.07 52.40 42.91 52.68 60.31 62.06 63.93 71.06 64.37
- WTI 93.29 48.74 42.21 52.03 58.10 59.52 61.59 65.52 60.85
RBOB Gas (US) 2.661 1.913 1.435 1.496 1.805 2.000 2.100 na na
Gas Oil (Europe) 846.0 495.4 387.4 439.4 601.0 620.0 650.0 na na
Natural Gas - US 4.356 2.624 2.241 2.907 3.025 3.122 3.165 3.567 3.094
- UK, pence 51.60 42.95 29.77 28.50 32.00 33.00 34.00 na na
Coking Coal 125.3 101.6 83.25 86.03 90.38 95.75 103.6 121.7 110.0
Thermal Coal - Contract 80.05 71.30 60.69 56.41 56.38 57.25 58.72 69.04 60.70
Spot 69.54 56.84 50.75 48.76 50.20 52.62 55.37 65.17 58.65
Uranium 33.70 36.82 32.05 38.76 44.00 46.94 50.13 56.55 52.03

Aluminium 1863 1662 1552 1608 1688 1749 1843 2104 1862
Alumina 330.5 310.0 245.3 261.4 276.2 288.7 301.2 340.2 306.8
Copper 6857 5502 4733 4941 5280 5624 5901 6342 5915
Nickel 16862 11829 9030 10545 12356 13823 14965 18377 16812
Lead 2094 1786 1746 1785 1833 1859 1841 1890 1811
Zinc 2161 1931 1835 2012 2084 2176 2203 2170 2038
Cobalt 14.38 13.27 11.21 12.05 12.20 12.53 12.87 13.21 11.69
Tin 21908 16083 16372 16932 17422 18230 18935 21313 18812
Manganese 4.543 3.083 2.938 2.641 2.713 2.876 3.086 3.981 3.598
Molybdenum 11.37 6.691 5.953 6.036 6.636 7.287 7.874 8.358 7.536
Rutile 1020 865.3 720.4 778.6 842.1 900.0 940.0 1062 1044
Ilmenite 187.7 124.2 102.2 108.8 122.5 134.2 142.0 153.6 150.4
Zircon 1217 1100 978.3 984.8 1092 1157 1218 1235 1186

Steel - HRC, Europe 588.0 432.9 410.3 416.1 430.6 452.9 481.2 na na
HRC, USA 685.3 484.9 511.5 483.2 494.3 511.9 514.3 na na
HRC, Asia 559.2 414.4 371.4 360.8 381.1 394.7 411.3 na na
Iron Ore - Lump (Aust) 102.1 57.53 49.92 45.51 51.61 54.36 57.52 64.30 59.10
Fine (Aust) 90.46 45.43 44.72 37.38 40.46 42.23 43.39 54.58 48.98
Fine (Brz) 85.07 43.40 47.60 40.14 48.47 47.87 50.09 na na

Gold 1265 1160 1226 1234 1233 1258 1255 1241 1126
Silver 19.03 15.69 15.99 16.82 17.27 17.93 18.38 18.50 17.48
Platinum 1382 1044 991.1 1077 1152 1241 1319 1373 1346
Palladium 797.9 687.5 576.6 659.7 713.1 752.4 773.8 702.4 671.8

% Change Between 2016 and 2020 % Change Between 2020 and Long-Term Average
(Nominal Prices) (Nominal Prices)
Crude Oil (WTI) Crude Oil (WTI)
Coking Coal Coking Coal
Steaming Coal Steaming Coal
Aluminium Aluminium
Copper Copper
Nickel Nickel
Lead Lead
Zinc Zinc
Iron Ore-Lump (Aus) Iron Ore-Lump (Aus)
Iron Ore - Fine (Aus) Iron Ore - Fine (Aus)
Gold Gold
Silver Silver
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28%

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 5


CRUDE OIL - BRENT JUNE 2016
Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
(Jun. 20): US$48.53 from spot
ABN Amro 50.00 65.00 65.00 70.00 44.2% 75.00 70.00 70.00 70.00
Lloyds Bank 50.00 55.00 62.00 65.00 33.9% 67.00 70.00 72.00 74.00
Macquarie 47.00 52.00 56.00 62.00 27.8% 65.00 62.00 65.00 67.00
Citigroup 52.00 52.00 60.00 60.00 23.6% 60.00 60.00 na na
Deloitte Access Economics 57.83 55.80 57.68 59.62 22.9% 61.62 63.69 65.83 70.16
Moody's Analytics 51.21 54.79 56.90 57.97 19.5% 59.05 60.14 61.65 63.44
Econ Intelligence Unit 42.50 47.00 49.50 54.00 11.3% 57.00 61.50 65.50 69.50
Deutsche Bank 45.00 50.00 53.00 53.00 9.2% 57.00 57.00 na na
Scotiabank 41.00 50.00 50.00 53.00 9.2% 55.00 59.00 na na
Capital Economics 43.50 43.50 47.50 52.50 8.2% 56.50 59.00 na na
UBS 41.00 46.00 52.00 52.00 7.2% 52.00 52.00 67.00 67.00
Euromonitor International 48.17 49.73 50.81 51.69 6.5% 52.34 52.83 53.47 54.30
Credit Suisse 41.00 48.50 49.00 51.50 6.1% 55.50 61.00 67.50 67.50
GKI Research 45.00 45.00 50.00 50.00 3.0% 51.00 55.00 55.00 60.00
Investec 40.00 40.00 50.00 50.00 3.0% 50.00 50.00 55.00 55.00
Oxford Economics 45.00 48.00 47.00 49.50 2.0% 49.50 50.00 51.00 51.50
BNP Paribas 41.00 48.00 51.00 49.00 1.0% 51.00 56.00 na na
Australia Dept of Industry 36.60 36.60 46.90 46.90 -3.4% 46.90 46.90 46.90 54.40
Morgan Stanley 42.58 43.96 45.25 46.08 -5.0% 46.84 47.39 na na
Bank of China International 46.00 43.00 46.00 46.00 -5.2% na na na na
Liberum Capital 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 -7.3% 45.00 45.00 50.00 50.00
Commonwealth Bank 48.00 42.00 39.00 42.00 -13.5% 46.00 50.00 53.00 55.00
Banco de Credito del Peru 36.51 36.48 37.50 40.83 -15.9% 44.47 47.50 47.50 47.50
P K Verleger 43.40 35.08 34.79 37.25 -23.2% 37.50 24.56 na na
Consensus (Mean) 44.97 47.19 50.08 51.87 6.9% 53.97 54.80 59.15 61.02
High 57.83 65.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 70.00 72.00 74.00
Low 36.51 35.08 34.79 37.25 37.50 24.56 46.90 47.50
Standard Deviation 5.00 6.87 7.30 7.71 8.39 9.62 8.49 8.49

(millions of barrels Crude Oil Volumes - Supply and Demand Consensus Forecasts
per day)
World 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Supply 96.29 95.96 96.30 96.64 96.41 96.31 96.49 96.94
Demand 94.59 94.85 96.01 96.34 95.66 95.94 97.08 97.30
Balance 1.70 1.12 0.30 0.30 0.75 0.37 -0.58 -0.35

100
Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balances 2.5 Supply Outages Support Price
(millions of barrels per day)
98 Supply 2.0 OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers
(left scale) (namely Russia) ended their June meet-
96 Source: International Energy 1.5 ing without agreement on how to man-
Agency for Historical Data.
94 1.0 age the production overhang.
92 0.5
Crude oil exports from Iran rose from
1.4mb/d in March to around 2.0mb/d in
90 0.0 April, dampening speculation that the
88 -0.5 global oil glut will disappear soon.
Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, and at-
86 Implied Stock Change Consensus -1.0
Demand tacks on Nigerian oil pipelines have tem-
84 (right scale) Forecasts -1.5
(left scale) porarily disrupted crude oil supply. How-
82 -2.0 ever, high stockpiles of the fossil fuel
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 have cast doubt over the sustainability
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 of its price rebound.

US$/bbl Crude Oil (Brent and WTI) Spot Prices, US$/barrel US$/bbl Brent Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
120 55 65 65
Aug 1, 2015 to US$/bbl Energy Information
Jan. 1, 2014 to Jul. 31, 2015 Present
110 Admin.,USA, Brent
(left scale) (right scale) 50 60 60
100 (Jun. 7)
ICE Futures
WTI 45 55 55
90 (Brent)
Brent 50 50
80 40
WTI
70 45 45
Range 2005 - 2016 35 Consensus
60 US$30.28 - US$143.95 40 (Brent) 40
(July 3, 2008) 30
50
Brent 35 35
40 25 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

6 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 West Texas Intermediate and RBOB Gasoline
WTI Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
(Jun. 20): US$49.40 from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 44.04 46.36 49.70 51.17 3.6% 53.25 53.99 57.78 59.53
High 51.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 70.00 68.00 70.00 72.00
Low 35.00 35.00 35.00 38.33 40.50 27.56 44.50 45.00
Standard Deviation 4.16 6.54 7.32 6.96 7.25 8.41 8.53 8.23
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet service.

US$ Crude Oil Futures September 2016 Contracts WTI Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$/bbl, Daily High/Low/Close 65
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date 65
60 Consensus
55 60 (WTI) 60

50 Brent, Sep. 2016 Contract 55 55


(ICE) Daily High/Low/Close NYMEX Futures
45 50
(WTI) 50
40
45 45
WTI, Daily Close, Energy Information
35 Admin.,USA, WTI
Sep. 2016 Contract 40 40
30 (NYMEX) (Jun. 7)
US$/bbl
25 35 35
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

RBOB Gasoline (US) Forecasts, US$/gallon, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Jun. 20): US$1.582 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Deutsche Bank 1.560 1.400 1.450 1.730 9.4% 1.770 1.480 na na
BNP Paribas 1.500 1.430 1.570 1.670 5.6% 1.640 1.550 na na
GKI Research 1.550 1.500 1.550 1.600 1.2% 1.650 1.700 1.700 1.800
P K Verleger 1.473 1.154 1.133 1.426 -9.8% 1.332 0.904 na na
Bank of China International 1.524 1.310 1.381 1.381 -12.7% na na na na

Consensus (Mean) 1.521 1.359 1.417 1.561 -1.3% 1.598 1.409 na na

High 1.560 1.500 1.570 1.730 1.770 1.700 na na


Low 1.473 1.154 1.133 1.381 1.332 0.904 na na
Standard Deviation 0.036 0.133 0.176 0.152 0.187 0.349 na na

US$ RBOB Gasoline (US), Spot Price US$/gallon Consensus Forecasts for RBOB Gasoline
3.5 3.5 2.0
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date

3.0 3.0 1.8


RBOB NYMEX Futures
2.5 2.5 1.6

2.0 2.0
1.4

1.5 1.5 Consensus Energy Information


1.2
Admin.,USA (Jun. 7)
1.0 1.0
1.0
0.5 0.5
0.8
0.0 0.0 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

RBOB/Heating Oil Futures Sep. 2016 Contracts (NYMEX)


US$/gallon, Daily High/Low/Close Futures Prices For RBOB and Heating Oil
US$
US$/gallon Prices as of Survey Date
1.8 1.8 1.8
RBOB Gasoline,
Sep. 2016 Contract, Daily 1.7
Heating Oil NYMEX Futures 1.7
1.6
High/Low/Close
1.6 1.6
1.4
1.5 1.5

1.2 1.4 1.4


RBOB NYMEX
1.0 Heating Oil, Daily Close, 1.3
Futures 1.3
Sep. 2016 Contract
1.2 1.2
0.8 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 7


US CRACK SPREAD & EUROPEAN GAS OIL JUNE 2016
US Crack Spread
70
US$ per barrel Crude oil is refined into numerous saleable products
60
including gasoline and Gas Oil (or heating oil). The crack
50
spread is used to estimate the profitability of refining the
40 raw material. When the spread is positive, the price of
30 the refined products is above that of crude oil, helping
20
profitability. The chart above shows a commonly used
3:2:1 crack spread, reflecting a ratio of refinery output of
10
2 barrels of RBOB gasoline and 1 barrel of US heating
0 oil from 3 barrels of WTI crude oil.
Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016

European Gas Oil Forecasts, US$/gallon, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Jun. 20): US$450.8 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Deutsche Bank 404.0 449.0 478.0 478.0 6.0% 518.0 519.0 na na
GKI Research 450.0 430.0 450.0 450.0 -0.2% 470.0 480.0 500.0 550.0
Bank of China International 435.8 413.5 435.8 435.8 -3.3% na na na na
BNP Paribas 387.0 440.0 454.0 432.0 -4.2% 454.0 507.0 na na
P K Verleger 406.3 343.9 345.4 360.2 -20.1% 362.1 265.0 na na

Consensus (Mean) 416.6 415.3 432.6 431.2 -4.3% 451.0 442.8 na na

High 450.0 449.0 478.0 478.0 518.0 519.0 na na


Low 387.0 343.9 345.4 360.2 362.1 265.0 na na
Standard Deviation 25.6 42.0 51.1 43.6 65.2 119.6 na na

US$ Gas Oil, Europe, Spot Price Gas Oil Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
1000
US$/tonne Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
550 550
US$/tonne
525 Gas Oil 525
800
500 Futures (ICE) 500

475 475
600
450 450

425 425
400 Consensus
400 400

375 375
200 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Ethanol, New York Harbour, and Corn


Ethanol, New York Harbour and Corn, Ethanol and Corn Futures
US$/gallon as of March 14, 2016 US$/Bu
Spot Price 1.65 4.4
8.50
Ethanol, NYMEX 4.3
7.50 1.60
left scale
6.50
Corn, US$/Bu 1.55
4.2

4.1
5.50 1.50
4.0
4.50 1.45
3.50 Corn, NYMEX, 3.9
1.40
right scale 3.8
2.50
1.35 3.7
1.50 Ethanol, US$/gallon
1.30 3.6
0.50 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Ethanol is a clean-burning renewable fuel, made from vari- output in the former, buoyed by large amounts of arable
ous plant materials and feedstocks, collectively called land, mainly for export. In terms of supply, ethanol in the
biomass. In terms of demand, it is primarily used as a US depends largely on corn (charted above), the value
fuel supplement for for motor vehicles, when blended with of which is influenced by unpredictable events in agri-
gasoline to produce less harmful tranport emmissions, as culture, notably crop damage from floods or weather. Etha-
required by government regulation. Brazil and the US ac- nol futures, traded on the NYMEX, are liquid and offer
count for more than 80% of global ethanol production, with traders the opportunity to minimize risks.

8 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas (US, Henry Hub) Forecasts, US$/MMBtu Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5

Survey Date Spot Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
(Jun. 20): US$2.730 from spot
CIBC 2.700 2.700 3.500 3.500 28.2% 3.500 3.500 na na
Euromonitor International 2.832 2.972 3.136 3.238 18.6% 3.309 3.349 3.392 3.436
Citigroup 2.200 2.500 3.200 3.200 17.2% 3.200 3.200 na na
TD Economics 2.350 2.500 2.900 3.100 13.6% 3.400 3.600 na na
Credit Suisse 2.750 2.850 3.250 3.000 9.9% 3.250 3.500 3.500 3.500
Liberum Capital 2.300 2.300 3.000 3.000 9.9% 3.000 3.000 2.737 2.737
Macquarie 2.350 2.850 3.150 3.000 9.9% 3.500 3.000 3.250 3.250
Lloyds Bank 2.500 2.800 3.000 2.900 6.2% 2.800 3.000 3.100 2.900
Capital Economics 2.500 2.625 2.750 2.875 5.3% 3.125 3.375 na na
Investec 2.500 2.500 2.800 2.800 2.6% 2.800 2.800 2.900 2.900
Moody's Analytics 2.340 2.520 2.670 2.800 2.6% 2.900 3.030 3.170 3.290
UBS 2.500 2.600 2.650 2.750 0.7% 2.750 2.850 2.900 3.000
Deutsche Bank 2.350 2.500 2.650 2.730 0.0% 2.610 3.010 na na
Commonwealth Bank 2.185 2.484 2.839 2.646 -3.1% 2.719 2.838 3.038 2.728
Morgan Stanley 2.134 2.428 2.765 2.610 -4.4% 2.691 2.795 na na
GKI Research 2.500 2.500 2.600 2.600 -4.8% 2.650 2.700 2.700 2.800
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.160 2.340 2.640 2.510 -8.1% 2.730 2.910 3.040 3.120
ABN Amro 2.250 2.250 2.500 2.500 -8.4% 2.750 2.750 3.000 3.000
Oxford Economics 1.977 1.987 2.006 2.037 -25.4% 2.077 2.129 2.182 2.237
Consensus (Mean) 2.388 2.537 2.842 2.831 3.7% 2.935 3.018 2.993 2.992
High 2.832 2.972 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.600 3.500 3.500
Low 1.977 1.987 2.006 2.037 2.077 2.129 2.182 2.237
Standard Deviation 0.222 0.235 0.333 0.326 0.364 0.350 0.336 0.340

UK Natural Gas Forecasts, UK pence/therm Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Jun. 20): 33.44 p Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
GKI Research 32.00 32.00 30.00 30.00 -10.3% 31.00 31.00 32.00 32.00
Lloyds Bank 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 -10.3% 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00
Capital Economics 28.50 26.00 25.00 25.00 -25.2% 25.00 25.00 na na

Consensus (Mean) 30.17 29.33 28.33 28.33 -15.3% 28.67 28.67 31.00 31.00
High 32.00 32.00 30.00 30.00 31.00 31.00 32.00 32.00
Low 28.50 26.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 30.00 30.00
Standard Deviation 1.76 3.06 2.89 2.89 3.21 3.21 1.41 1.41

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub); UK Natural Gas US Natural Gas


US$/MMBtu US$/MMBtu; UK pence/therm UK pence/therm Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
1 4 .0 90 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
U S N a tu r a l G a s (lh s ) 3 .6
1 2 .0 80 NYMEX Futures
U K N a tu r a l G a s (r h s )
3 .2
1 0 .0 70

8 .0 60 2 .8
Consensus
6 .0 50 2 .4

4 .0 40
2 .0
Energy Info.
Admin., USA (Jun. 7)
2 .0 30 US$/MMBtu
1 .6
0 .0 20 Sp ot Se p Dec Mar Jun Sep D ec Mar Jun
Ja n 2 0 0 8 D ec 2009 Nov 2011 O ct 2 0 1 3 Se p 20 15 20 16 20 16 2 01 7 20 17 20 17 2 01 7 20 18 2 018

Natural Gas Futures Price Recovery


US$/MMBtu UK p/therm
US$/MMBtu, Daily High/Low/Close Henry Hub rose above US$2.5/MMBtu last
2.8 40
UK Natural Gas,
week, from below US$2.0 a month ago, lifted
38
2.6 1-Month Forward in part by above-average temperatures in
Close (UK/therm, rhs) 36 several states and higher demand for gas-
2.4 34 powered electricity to run air conditioners.
32 Further price increases could come along-
2.2 30 side a recovery in crude oil (pages 6-7), as
NYMEX Sep. 2016 28 well as concerns about the drop in explora-
2.0 Futures, Daily High/
Low/Close (lhs)
26 tion and production. However, a global glut
1.8 24 of LNG and a weak commodity price envi-
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 ronment could act as headwinds in the short
to medium-term.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 9
COAL JUNE 2016
Consensus Price for
Australian Coking Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
Q3: US$84.16
from Q3
RBC Capital Markets na 90.00 100.00 100.00 18.8% 100.00 100.00 95.00 95.00
Credit Suisse 85.00 85.00 90.00 90.00 6.9% 95.00 95.00 97.50 97.50
Liberum Capital 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 6.9% 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
UBS 85.00 86.00 87.00 88.00 4.6% 89.00 90.00 92.00 94.00
Deutsche Bank 85.00 85.00 88.00 85.00 1.0% 88.00 90.00 na na
Macquarie 88.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 1.0% 85.00 85.00 90.00 90.00
Morgan Stanley 76.00 76.00 80.00 85.00 1.0% 80.00 80.00 na na
Commonwealth Bank 90.00 85.00 83.00 82.00 -2.6% 82.00 82.00 83.00 84.00
Investec 81.00 81.00 82.00 82.00 -2.6% 83.00 83.00 85.00 85.00
Timetric 83.00 83.00 82.00 82.00 -2.6% 83.00 84.00 85.00 86.00
BoA Merrill Lynch 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 -4.9% 80.00 80.00 na na
Australia Dept of Industry 82.80 82.80 79.80 79.80 -5.2% 79.80 79.80 79.80 81.30

Consensus (Mean) 84.16 84.07 85.57 85.73 1.9% 86.23 86.57 88.59 89.20

High 90.00 90.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 97.50 97.50


Low 76.00 76.00 79.80 79.80 79.80 79.80 79.80 81.30
Standard Deviation 4.27 3.95 5.90 5.69 6.40 6.48 5.81 5.52

Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Spot Price
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
Q3: US$50.58
from Q3
Euromonitor International 58.18 59.31 60.53 61.38 21.4% 62.09 62.63 63.29 64.02
Morgan Stanley 54.00 54.00 55.00 56.00 10.7% 56.00 56.00 na na
UBS 54.00 56.00 54.00 56.00 10.7% 55.00 57.00 55.00 58.00
Credit Suisse 53.00 52.00 50.00 50.00 -1.1% 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Deutsche Bank 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 -1.1% 48.00 48.00 na na
Timetric 45.00 46.00 50.00 50.00 -1.1% 50.00 50.00 50.00 53.00
Investec 49.80 49.80 46.20 46.20 -8.7% 44.20 44.20 43.00 43.00
Commonwealth Bank 52.00 50.00 48.00 46.00 -9.0% 45.00 45.00 45.00 46.00
BoA Merrill Lynch 45.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 -11.0% 45.00 45.00 na na
Liberum Capital 50.00 50.00 45.00 45.00 -11.0% 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00
RBC Capital Markets 50.00 50.00 45.00 45.00 -11.0% 45.00 45.00 50.00 50.00
Macquarie 48.00 46.00 44.00 44.00 -13.0% 42.00 42.00 44.00 44.00
Capital Economics 48.50 46.00 43.00 41.50 -17.9% 42.50 44.00 na na

Consensus (Mean) 50.58 50.55 48.90 48.93 -3.3% 48.45 48.76 49.48 50.34

High 58.18 59.31 60.53 61.38 62.09 62.63 63.29 64.02


Low 45.00 46.00 43.00 41.50 42.00 42.00 43.00 43.00
Standard Deviation 3.70 3.99 5.12 5.78 6.01 6.20 6.46 7.02

Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
1
Q3: US$58.84 Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Consensus (Mean)1 58.84 59.03 58.53 55.88 -5.0% 55.63 55.63 55.91 56.38
High 61.60 61.60 61.60 60.00 60.00 60.00 62.20 64.00
Low 52.50 54.00 55.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 50.00 50.00
Standard Deviation 3.01 2.58 2.69 3.27 3.58 3.58 4.84 5.49

US$ Coking Coal and Steaming Coal Prices Consensus Forecasts and Futures Prices
350 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
Australian Coking Coal US$/tonne
300
US$/metric 120
tonne
Australian 100
Australian Coking Coal
250 Consensus
Steaming Coal
(Spot) 80
200
Australian Steaming Coal - Consensus
60
150
40
100 Central Appalachian US Coal Futures
20 (US$/short ton, NYMEX)
50
Australian Steaming Coal (Contract) 0
0 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

10 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 URANIUM
Survey Date Spot Price Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Uranium U3O8 Forecasts, US$/lb
(Jun. 20): US$28.25
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
UBS 39.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 94.7% 55.0 60.0 60.0 60.0

Credit Suisse 35.0 37.5 40.0 40.0 41.6% 40.0 40.0 50.0 50.0

Morgan Stanley 32.0 35.0 38.0 40.0 41.6% 44.0 48.0 na na

Investec 34.0 34.0 38.0 38.0 34.5% 40.0 40.0 42.0 42.0

Capital Economics 31.0 33.5 35.5 36.5 29.2% 37.5 39.0 na na

Liberum Capital 32.5 32.5 35.0 35.0 23.9% 37.5 37.5 40.0 40.0

Macquarie 30.0 32.0 34.0 34.0 20.4% 36.0 36.0 38.0 38.0

Commonwealth Bank 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 16.8% 34.0 33.0 32.0 32.0

Australia Dept of Industry 31.8 31.8 31.0 31.0 9.7% 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0

Consensus (Mean) 32.8 34.7 37.1 38.1 34.7% 39.4 40.5 41.9 41.9

High 39.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 55.0 60.0 60.0 60.0

Low 30.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0

Standard Deviation 2.9 4.3 5.7 7.1 6.9 8.8 10.2 10.2

Uranium U3O8, Spot Price Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices


US$ US$/lb US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
150 55 US$/lb
Jan. 2012 to 45
125 Jan. 2004 to Present 50
Dec. 2011 (right scale)
40
100
(left scale) 45
Consensus
35
75 40

30
50 35

25
25 30 NYMEX Futures
20
0 25 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Ja n 2004 Jan 200 6 Jan 20 08 Ja n 2 010 Jan 201 2 Jan 201 4 Jan 20 16 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Resurgence on Hold
Uranium Futures September 2016 Contract (NYMEX)
The spot price of uranium has dropped 17.5%
US$
US$/lb, Closing Price
in the year to date to US$28.25/lb, mainly
40 depressed by demand risks, the current low
cost of alternative energy, and high supply
35 of the fuel from mines in Kazakhstan,
Canada and Australia.
30 Confidence was lifted in early June, as a new
Uranium futures started trading US nuclear reactor came online for the first
25 on NYMEX in May 2007. Volume is time in 20 years. The long-term outlook for
thin due to off-market trading and atomic fuel remains supported by the need
its specialised and limited use.
20 to reduce carbon emissions.
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 The consensus is predicting that uranium will
remain below US$50/lb until 2018.

World Nuclear Electricity Production (2010) Uranium futures began trading on NYMEX in May
Producers Installed Capacity Nuclear power as a % of 2007 in an attempt to introduce greater price trans-
(% share of World) (Gigawatts) total domestic electricity parency. Volumes and liquidity are currently very
USA 30.4% USA 101 France 75.9% low (see chart above left).
France 15.6% France 63 Ukraine 47.3% Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/lb Contract
Japan 10.4% Japan 49 South Korea 29.9% Size: 250lbs Trading Months: 60 consecutive
Russia 6.2% Russia 24 Japan 26.0% months. Settlement price: The final settlement price
S. Korea 5.4% Germany 20 Germany 22.6% is the spot-month end price published by UxC.

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 11


ALUMINIUM JUNE 2016
Survey Date Spot Price Aluminium Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Jun. 20): US$1608 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Capital Economics 1625 1675 1715 1740 8.2% 1765 1790 na na
BoA Merrill Lynch 1550 1650 1650 1700 5.8% 1600 1650 na na
IHS Global Insight 1565 1585 1624 1696 5.5% 1745 1822 1890 na
BIPE 1590 1620 1660 1690 5.1% 1710 1730 na na
Scotiabank 1609 1631 1653 1676 4.2% 1676 1698 na na
Euromonitor International 1622 1639 1661 1675 4.2% 1689 1702 1721 1743
Moody's Analytics 1590 1606 1622 1655 2.9% 1688 1721 1756 1773
UBS 1609 1653 1653 1653 2.9% 1653 1675 1764 1764
RBC Capital Markets 1543 1543 1653 1653 2.9% 1653 1653 1764 1764
Australia Dept of Industry 1601 1601 1650 1650 2.6% 1650 1650 1650 1681
Credit Suisse 1600 1600 1650 1650 2.6% 1650 1650 1700 1700
Econ Intelligence Unit 1600 1650 1600 1650 2.6% 1700 1700 1800 1850
Morgan Stanley 1587 1587 1631 1631 1.5% 1631 1631 na na
TD Economics 1587 1587 1631 1631 1.5% 1676 1676 na na
Oxford Economics 1569 1576 1591 1614 0.4% 1629 1655 1690 1726
Deutsche Bank 1530 1520 1550 1580 -1.7% 1620 1630 na na
CPM Group 1545 1560 1590 1570 -2.3% 1600 1640 1640 1675
Investec 1543 1543 1565 1565 -2.6% 1587 1587 1631 1631
CIBC 1450 1450 1537 1537 -4.4% 1537 1537 na na
Citigroup 1480 1480 1500 1510 -6.1% 1530 1540 na na
Bank of China International 1430 1450 1500 1500 -6.7% na na na na
Commonwealth Bank 1687 1620 1554 1490 -7.3% 1515 1517 1519 1543
Prometeia 1550 1520 1476 1450 -9.8% 1464 1481 1502 1518
Liberum Capital 1433 1433 1433 1433 -10.9% 1433 1433 1543 1543
Macquarie 1400 1400 1350 1400 -12.9% 1350 1350 1400 1400
Consensus (Mean) 1556 1567 1588 1600 -0.5% 1615 1630 1665 1665
High 1687 1675 1715 1740 1765 1822 1890 1850
Low 1400 1400 1350 1400 1350 1350 1400 1400
Standard Deviation 70 76 85 92 100 109 130 124

US$ Aluminium Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
3500 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$/metric tonne 1750
US$/metric tonne
3000
1700
2500 LME Futures
1650
2000
Consensus
1600
1500

1550
1000
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Abundant Supply
Aluminium 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Price dynamics in the aluminium industry
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
US$ remain heavily influenced by output in the
000s
1750 3000 worlds largest producer, China. Despite no-
2900 table output cuts at the end of last year,
1650 smelter activity may pick up again as price
2800
gains in the year to date (particularly in the
1550 2700 domestic market) encourage producers to re-
2600 start idled capacity.
1450 The growth of new low-cost smelters, along
3-Month Forward Daily LME Warehouse 2500
with continued government support for those
High/Low/Close (lhs) Stocks, Daily (rhs)
1350 2400 that are loss-making, seems likely to sup-
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 port excesses of the metal. Our panellists
(table above) expect little price improvement
World Aluminium Demand and Supply Consensus over the next four quarters.
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts
Aluminium: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Supply 42.3 47.8 50.8 53.8 57.2 59.1 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 41.3 47.4 50.4 53.6 56.6 59.0 for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Wednesday for 7 months out to 123 months. Con-
Balance 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.1
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015
tracts Traded: 59,880,649 (2015).

12 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 ALUMINA & ALUMINIUM ALLOY
Survey Date Spot Price Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Alumina Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Jun. 20): US$255.2

Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
BoA Merrill Lynch 280.0 300.0 290.0 290.0 13.6% 290.0 290.0 na na
UBS 270.0 280.0 285.0 290.0 13.6% 290.0 295.0 300.0 300.0
RBC Capital Markets 258.5 254.0 289.4 289.4 13.4% 289.4 289.4 308.6 308.6
Capital Economics 265.0 270.0 280.0 285.0 11.7% 295.0 300.0 na na
Investec 265.4 265.4 274.0 274.0 7.4% 277.8 277.8 290.0 290.0
Morgan Stanley 247.0 250.0 260.0 260.0 1.9% 260.0 260.0 na na
Australia Dept of Industry 255.0 255.0 256.9 256.9 0.7% 256.9 256.9 256.9 297.9
Credit Suisse 240.0 240.0 250.0 250.0 -2.0% 250.0 250.0 260.0 260.0
Liberum Capital 229.3 229.3 229.3 229.3 -10.2% 229.3 229.3 246.9 246.9
Commonwealth Bank 240.0 235.0 230.0 225.0 -11.8% 220.0 220.0 225.0 230.0
Macquarie 225.0 225.0 220.0 220.0 -13.8% 220.0 220.0 240.0 240.0

Consensus (Mean) 252.3 254.9 260.4 260.9 2.2% 261.7 262.6 265.9 271.7

High 280.0 300.0 290.0 290.0 295.0 300.0 308.6 308.6


Low 225.0 225.0 220.0 220.0 220.0 220.0 225.0 230.0
Standard Deviation 17.5 22.8 25.6 27.1 29.0 30.1 30.2 30.9

Alumina, Metallurgical Grade, Spot Price Alumina Consensus Forecasts


US$ US$/metric tonne Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
700 US$/metric tonne
275
600
270
500
Consensus
265
400

300 260

200 255

100 250
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
0
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016

Alumina is derived from bauxite ore and is used to produce primary alu- World Production of Alumina
minium at a ratio of two tonnes of alumina per tonne of aluminium. Prices can
be linked to the LME primary aluminium price. (100.5 million tonnes, 2012)
Aluminium Alloy prices provide a reference basis for the secondary alu- Producer % of world total
minium market. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 1. China 27.8%
20 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays 2. Australia 18.3%
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7 months 3. Indonesia 12.9%
out to 27 months. Contracts Traded: 217,503 (2015). 4. Brazil 11.4%

Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price, LME Aluminium vs Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price Differential
US$ US$/metric tonne US$ US$/metric tonne
3000 900

700
2500

500
2000
300
1500
100

1000
Price on Survey
Date: US$1530 -100

500 -300
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 13


COPPER JUNE 2016
Survey Date Spot Price Copper, Grade A, Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Jun. 20): US$4585 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Australia Dept of Industry 4786 4786 5800 5800 26.5% 5800 5800 5800 6200
Capital Economics 4850 5250 5550 5675 23.8% 5800 5925 na na
Moody's Analytics 5076 5380 5498 5553 21.1% 5620 5676 5724 5793
Morgan Stanley 5291 5291 5291 5401 17.8% 5512 5732 na na
Investec 5071 5071 5401 5401 17.8% 5512 5512 5732 5732
Citigroup 4750 5000 5200 5400 17.8% 5600 5800 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 5000 5200 5600 5400 17.8% 5400 5200 5200 5500
CIBC 5000 5000 5300 5300 15.6% 5300 5300 na na
IHS Global Insight 4796 4967 4968 5144 12.2% 5325 5400 5565 na
TD Economics 4935 4975 5025 5065 10.5% 5071 5115 na na
Scotiabank 4938 4960 5004 5049 10.1% 5093 5159 na na
CPM Group 4560 4725 4925 5000 9.1% 4850 4900 4900 5000
RBC Capital Markets 4630 4630 4960 4960 8.2% 4960 4960 5512 5512
Bank of China International 4700 4800 4900 4900 6.9% na na na na
Macquarie 4799 4601 4751 4850 5.8% 4751 4799 4901 4799
Oxford Economics 4799 4740 4750 4829 5.3% 4860 4945 5074 5225
Timetric 4690 4530 4655 4806 4.8% 4873 4945 5002 5656
BoA Merrill Lynch 5000 5500 4740 4750 3.6% 4750 4750 na na
Banco de Credito del Peru 4703 4703 4696 4696 2.4% 4762 4762 4762 4762
Euromonitor International 4721 4665 4654 4640 1.2% 4640 4649 4684 4736
Deutsche Bank 4500 4400 4500 4600 0.3% 4800 5000 na na
Prometeia 4650 4603 4594 4469 -2.5% 4528 4550 4624 4647
UBS 4299 4189 4189 4409 -3.8% 4850 5071 5181 5512
Credit Suisse 4625 4400 4400 4075 -11.1% 4075 4075 3960 3960
Liberum Capital 3967 3967 3967 3967 -13.5% 3967 3967 4408 4408
Commonwealth Bank 4409 3968 3638 3307 -27.9% 3351 3395 3439 3483
Consensus (Mean) 4752 4781 4883 4902 6.9% 4962 5015 4969 5058
High 5291 5500 5800 5800 5800 5925 5800 6200
Low 3967 3967 3638 3307 3351 3395 3439 3483
Standard Deviation 273 398 509 561 584 603 639 722

US$ Copper, Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
11000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
10000
US$/metric tonne 5100
US$/metric tonne
9000 5000
8000 Consensus
4900
7000
6000 4800
5000 COMEX Futures
4700
4000
3000 4600
2000 LME Futures
4500
1000
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Copper 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Prices Pinned Down by High Inventories
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes, After a brief rally earlier in the year, confi-
US$ 000s dence in the red metal has fallen back,
5250
LME Warehouse
280 although our panel remain optimistic of a
Stocks, Daily (rhs) slight rebound in the near-term.
5000
240 Data from the International Copper Study
4750 Group showed a surplus in refined output in
200 January and February, although adverse
4500 weather in the world's largest producer Chile
4250
160 may have plugged some of the gap in April.
3-Month Forward, Daily Major producers such as BHP Billiton and
High/Low/Close (lhs)
4000 120 Rio Tinto remain eager to expand their cop-
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 per operations, with cost-cutting measures
supporting plans for new projects.
World Copper Demand and Supply Consensus Copper: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month
Supply 19.6 20.1 21.1 22.5 22.9 23.5 to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday
Demand 19.7 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.7 23.4 for 7 months out to 123 months. Contracts Traded:
38,557,831 (2015). US Futures Market: COMEX
Balance -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 Pricing: USc/lb Lot Size: 25,000lbs Deliverability:
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 24 consecutive months.
14 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 NICKEL
Survey Date Spot Price Nickel Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Jun. 20): US$9210 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Econ Intelligence Unit 11019 12489 13264 14036 52.4% 14256 14808 15285 16792
Credit Suisse 11250 13000 13000 13000 41.1% 13900 13900 15000 15000
BoA Merrill Lynch 9500 10000 10000 12500 35.7% 10500 10000 na na
Morgan Stanley 11244 11464 12346 12346 34.0% 12125 12125 na na
Macquarie 9251 10501 11001 11499 24.9% 12000 12000 13001 13001
RBC Capital Markets 9149 9149 11023 11023 19.7% 11023 11023 13228 13228
TD Economics 9250 9820 10472 11023 19.7% 13228 13779 na na
UBS 9480 10141 10472 11023 19.7% 11023 11574 12125 12676
CIBC 9250 9250 10865 10865 18.0% 10865 10865 na na
BIPE 9050 9530 10466 10860 17.9% 11300 11740 na na
IHS Global Insight 9175 9633 10211 10722 16.4% 11258 11821 12294 na
Oxford Economics 9050 10006 10203 10521 14.2% 10724 11029 11409 11823
Deutsche Bank 8800 10250 9500 10500 14.0% 10000 11000 na na
Prometeia 9021 9353 10036 9955 8.1% 10106 10199 10441 10577
Capital Economics 8625 8875 9250 9750 5.9% 10250 10750 na na
Timetric 8844 9061 9312 9689 5.2% 9833 10050 10239 13179
Australia Dept of Industry 8838 8838 9638 9638 4.6% 9638 9638 9638 10538
Scotiabank 8598 8598 9414 9634 4.6% 10075 10516 na na
Euromonitor International 9262 9356 9488 9557 3.8% 9618 9679 9786 9920
Citigroup 8500 8600 8700 9200 -0.1% 9300 9350 na na
Investec 8532 8532 9039 9039 -1.9% 10141 10141 11574 11574
CPM Group 8550 8700 8950 8890 -3.5% 9180 9350 9350 9500
Liberum Capital 8816 8816 8816 8816 -4.3% 8816 8816 9918 9918
Bank of China International 8500 8600 8800 8800 -4.5% na na na na
Commonwealth Bank 8598 8378 8267 7937 -13.8% 8047 8157 8311 8444
Consensus (Mean) 9206 9638 10101 10433 13.3% 10717 10930 11440 11869
High 11250 13000 13264 14036 14256 14808 15285 16792
Low 8500 8378 8267 7937 8047 8157 8311 8444
Standard Deviation 801 1193 1291 1455 1527 1613 2056 2287

US$ Nickel Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
60000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
12500
US$/metric tonne
50000
11500
40000 Consensus
30000 10500

20000
9500

10000
LME Futures
8500
0 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Price Rally Expected


Nickel 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close Chinese imports of nickel ore slowed in the
US$ tonnes first four months of the year, with reports of
10000 LME Warehouse 460000 a reduction in output of nickel pig iron, a
Stocks, Daily (rhs) cheaper alternative to pure nickel.
440000 Stocks in LME warehouses (red line in graph
9000 left) declined in Q2, but their relatively high
420000 levels have limited optimism regarding an
8000 3-Month immediate price recovery.
Forward Daily 400000 More pronounced output cuts by producers
High/Low/ may be required to narrow current excesses
Close (lhs)
7000 380000 in supply. Some volatility is likely but the
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 consensus, on balance, is predicting that
nickel will rise 13.3% by Q2 2017.
World Nickel Demand and Supply Consensus Nickel prices are closely related to demand from
(in thousands of tonnes) Forecasts stainless steel producers who account for about
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 two-thirds of total demand. Futures Market: LME
Supply 1640 1785 1970 1990 1951 1968 Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 6 tonnes Deliv-
ery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Demand 1625 1685 1790 1950 1930 1978
Wednesdays for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then
Balance 15 100 180 40 21 -10 every third Wednesday for 7 months out to 63
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 months. Contracts Traded: 19,959,729 (2015).
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 15
LEAD JUNE 2016
Survey Date Spot Price Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Lead Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Jun. 20): US$1702
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
BoA Merrill Lynch 1940 2249 2359 2205 29.6% 2350 2205 na na
Macquarie 1799 1870 1881 1920 12.8% 1960 2000 2101 2200
Credit Suisse 1850 1850 1900 1900 11.6% 1900 1900 1900 1900
Capital Economics 1725 1775 1825 1875 10.2% 1925 1975 na na
Morgan Stanley 1808 1808 1874 1874 10.1% 1874 1874 na na
Banco de Credito del Peru 1775 1793 1800 1836 7.9% 1830 1840 1840 1840
IHS Global Insight 1861 1863 1859 1826 7.3% 1845 1860 1873 na
CPM Group 1785 1810 1865 1820 6.9% 1875 1900 1900 1950
Prometeia 1781 1796 1791 1801 5.8% 1820 1816 1800 1790
Deutsche Bank 1720 1730 1760 1800 5.8% 1820 1850 na na
RBC Capital Markets 1772 1776 1782 1782 4.7% 1782 1782 1789 1789
Econ Intelligence Unit 1710 1780 1750 1780 4.6% 1740 1800 1850 1850
UBS 1808 1786 1764 1764 3.6% 1764 1764 1874 1874
Liberum Capital 1763 1763 1763 1763 3.6% 1873 1873 1873 1873
Bank of China International 1650 1700 1750 1750 2.8% na na na na
Investec 1720 1720 1742 1742 2.4% 1764 1764 1786 1786
Oxford Economics 1719 1724 1710 1723 1.2% 1711 1715 1731 1741
Citigroup 1650 1680 1700 1680 -1.3% 1720 1730 na na
Timetric 1725 1639 1672 1631 -4.2% 1617 1630 1644 1859
Euromonitor International 1582 1516 1482 1457 -14.4% 1442 1435 1437 1446
Commonwealth Bank 1653 1543 1433 1323 -22.3% 1213 1124 1135 1146

Consensus (Mean) 1752 1770 1784 1774 4.2% 1791 1792 1769 1789
High 1940 2249 2359 2205 2350 2205 2101 2200
Low 1582 1516 1433 1323 1213 1124 1135 1146
Standard Deviation 82 143 176 172 218 218 227 243

US$ Lead Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
4000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
1850
3500 US$/metric tonne
Consensus
3000 1800

2500

2000 1750

1500
LME Futures
1700
1000
500
1650
0
Spot Sep D ec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Lead 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks,LME Modest Price Increases
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close Statistics from the International Lead and
US$ tonnes,
000s Zinc Study Group showed a 23kt surplus in
2000
3-Month Forward Daily
240 the lead market between January and April.
High/Low/Close (lhs) 220 Demand has fallen at a steeper rate than
1900
200 supply so far this year.
1800 180
Road safety concerns have led to a
crackdown on electric bikes (a large market
1700 160
for lead batteries) by some Chinese cities.
LME Warehouse 140 Also, a 4% lead battery tax enforced at the
1600 Stocks, Daily (rhs) 120 start of 2016 may spark a gradual shift
1500 100 towards more efficient lithium-ion batteries.
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Our panel expect a rather restrained increase
in the price level over the forecast horizon.
World Lead Demand and Supply Consensus The price of Lead, which is used mainly for batter-
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts ies, can be related to that of zinc as the metals are
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 co-produced. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
Supply 10.6 10.6 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.4 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.4
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Balance 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Wednesday for 7 months out to 63 months. Con-
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 tracts Traded: 12,522,608 (2015).
16 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 ZINC
Survey Date Spot Price Zinc, Special High Grade, Forecasts, US$/MT, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Jun. 20): US$1990 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
Scotiabank 1896 1984 2315 2668 34.1% 2888 3109 na na
RBC Capital Markets 1874 1874 2425 2425 21.9% 2425 2425 2866 2866
BoA Merrill Lynch 2100 2300 2293 2300 15.6% 2250 2250 na na
Macquarie 2000 2101 2149 2251 13.1% 2401 2500 2449 2551
TD Economics 1900 1950 2116 2205 10.8% 2315 2425 na na
BIPE 1960 2040 2100 2150 8.1% 2230 2300 na na
IHS Global Insight 2037 2084 2078 2118 6.5% 2140 2175 2155 na
Moody's Analytics 1969 2008 2048 2110 6.0% 2131 2152 2173 2195
Capital Economics 1965 1990 2025 2075 4.3% 2125 2175 na na
Bank of China International 1900 1950 2000 2000 0.5% na na na na
Credit Suisse 1900 1900 2000 2000 0.5% 2200 2200 2150 2150
Morgan Stanley 1764 1874 1984 1984 -0.3% 1984 1984 na na
Citigroup 1880 1900 1950 1970 -1.0% 2000 2030 na na
CPM Group 1835 1885 1925 1910 -4.0% 1955 1985 1985 2010
CIBC 1700 1700 1908 1908 -4.1% 1908 1908 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 1780 1900 1900 1880 -5.5% 1950 1970 2000 2100
Timetric 1668 1771 1819 1877 -5.7% 1890 1916 1941 2203
Liberum Capital 1763 1763 1873 1873 -5.8% 1984 1984 1984 1984
Euromonitor International 1869 1864 1863 1858 -6.6% 1857 1858 1867 1882
Australia Dept of Industry 1705 1705 1855 1855 -6.8% 1855 1855 1855 1979
Banco de Credito del Peru 1700 1800 1850 1823 -8.4% 1750 1750 1750 1750
Prometeia 1898 1865 1807 1798 -9.6% 1834 1858 1870 1889
Investec 1764 1764 1786 1786 -10.2% 1808 1808 1830 1830
Deutsche Bank 1750 1720 1760 1780 -10.5% 1830 1880 na na
UBS 1984 1984 1896 1764 -11.4% 1720 1653 1653 1764
Oxford Economics 1800 1750 1700 1760 -11.5% 1780 1800 1820 1830
Commonwealth Bank 1852 1764 1676 1631 -18.0% 1582 1598 1615 1631
Consensus (Mean) 1860 1896 1967 1991 0.1% 2030 2060 1998 2038
High 2100 2300 2425 2668 2888 3109 2866 2866
Low 1668 1700 1676 1631 1582 1598 1615 1631
Standard Deviation 112 140 183 231 278 319 304 314

US$ Zinc, Special High Grade Spot Price (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
5000 Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
21 00
4500
US$/metric tonne
4000
3500
20 00
3000
2500
2000 LME Futures
19 00
1500
1000 Consensus
500 18 00
0 S po t Se p D ec Ma r Ju n Sep D ec Ma r Ju n
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2 01 6 2 01 6 2 01 7 20 1 7 20 17 20 17 20 18 20 18

Zinc 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Positive Performance
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
Zinc has been the star performer amongst
US$ 000s the base metals so far this year, up around
2200 600 25% on our survey date, with prices recently
3-Month Forward Daily
High/Low/Close (lhs) fluctuating close to US$2000/T.
2000 550
Supply fundamentals have been bolstered by
1800 500 several mine closures and output cutbacks.
Dwindling ore concentrates could keep a lid
1600 LME Warehouse 450
Stocks, Daily (rhs) on future refining activity by smelters, par-
1400 400
ticularly in China.
China's reliance on investment spending and
1200 350 a resurgence in property prices should
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 support demand and help sustain Zincs price
improvement close to current levels.
World Zinc Demand and Supply Consensus Zincs primary use is in galvanising steel. Futures
(in millions of tonnes) Forecasts Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
World 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 25 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Dates: Daily for cash
Supply 13.1 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.4 to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Demand 12.7 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7
months out to 63 months. Contracts Traded:
Balance 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
Historical Estimates and Forecasts from Survey of December 2015 28,751,185 (2015).
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 17
STEEL OCTOBER 2007
JUNE 2016
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (Europe, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Jun. 20): US$495.0 e
Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
IHS Global Insight 462.0 432.0 439.6 450.8 -8.9% 454.8 462.7 473.5 na
Oxford Economics 427.9 440.0 441.5 442.8 -10.5% 449.4 445.2 453.3 465.2
MEPS 480.0 420.0 420.0 440.0 -11.1% 430.0 415.0 450.0 465.0
Macquarie 400.0 355.0 405.0 405.0 -18.2% 405.0 405.0 370.0 370.0
BoA Merrill Lynch 402.0 412.0 394.0 394.0 -20.4% 394.0 394.0 na na
Morgan Stanley 363.4 346.9 371.5 391.8 -20.9% 374.7 360.1 na na

Consensus (Mean) 422.6 401.0 411.9 420.7 -15.0% 418.0 413.7 436.7 433.4

High 480.0 440.0 441.5 450.8 454.8 462.7 473.5 465.2


Low 363.4 346.9 371.5 391.8 374.7 360.1 370.0 370.0
Standard Deviation 43.1 40.0 27.2 26.7 32.0 36.7 45.7 54.9

Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (USA, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/short ton, fob
(Jun. 20): US$635.0 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 538.4 495.9 479.9 484.5 -23.7% 484.0 484.3 466.4 453.1

High 630.0 575.0 550.0 537.5 534.6 556.7 505.0 505.0


Low 450.5 382.9 379.3 382.9 382.9 379.3 369.4 369.4
Standard Deviation 65.1 58.1 61.5 54.7 53.0 54.4 65.3 73.2

Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (China, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Jun. 20): US$420.0 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 360.6 344.1 349.7 362.3 -13.7% 364.3 366.8 375.0 384.6
High 420.5 395.0 400.0 415.0 405.0 397.5 410.0 430.0
Low 307.0 272.0 307.0 320.0 320.0 320.0 310.0 310.0
Standard Deviation 46.4 48.5 33.3 31.7 30.2 29.5 44.8 65.1
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.

Wide Spread in Global Steel Prices


Steel Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices (MEPS) The outlook for US HRC Steel has improved
US$/tonne
US$/tonne on supply constraints and a further sharp hike
1400
in US government-imposed tarrifs on CRC
1 metric tonne = 1.1023 short tons
1200
Steel imports from China. The consensus
HRC - Europe expects the price of US HRC Steel to aver-
1000
(metric tonne) age US$511.5 per short ton (US$464.0 per
HRC - China HRC - USA metric tonne) in 2016 as a consequence.
(metric tonne) (short ton)
800 An upturn in HRC Steel Europe comes along-
side that of China (partly reflecting seasonal
600
influences). Despite trade tensions, Beijing
maintains a controversial tax rebate policy to
400
support steel exporters.
200 The price rebound around the world (chart left)
Steel Scrap - USA (short ton) will be difficult to sustain beyond the next
0 couple of quarters, against a backdrop of ex-
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
cess steel capacity in China, which will take
several years to be eliminated.
Steel Production and Consumption (2013) Steel Prices are generally set in contracts between
major producers and their clients. However, the
Producers % of world total Consumers % of world total London Metal Exchange offers a number of steel
1. China 48.2 1. China 46.0 billet contracts for delivery to locations across Eu-
2. Japan 6.9 2. United States 6.5 rope, Asia and North America. While there are
3. United States 5.4 3. India 5.0 many varieties of steel, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) is a
4. India 5.0 4. Japan 4.4 commonly referenced price, but regional complexi-
ties prevent the emergence of a clear benchmark
EU 10.4 EU 9.6 at present.
18 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 IRON ORE
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Consensus Price for North China Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, cfr
Q3: US$47.16 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from Q3
Euromonitor International 59.92 60.85 62.02 62.62 32.8% 63.09 63.31 63.75 64.30
IHS Global Insight 49.45 51.50 51.52 53.75 14.0% 53.47 53.75 54.42 na
Macquarie 52.00 48.00 52.00 52.00 10.3% 48.00 48.00 50.00 47.00
ETLA 55.00 55.00 50.00 50.00 6.0% 50.00 50.00 55.00 na
BoA Merrill Lynch 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 1.8% 48.00 48.00 na na
Capital Economics 49.00 45.00 45.00 46.00 -2.5% 49.00 51.00 na na
UBS 43.00 40.00 47.00 46.00 -2.5% 43.00 42.00 50.00 52.00
Credit Suisse 40.00 40.00 45.00 45.00 -4.6% 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00
Investec 46.00 46.00 45.00 45.00 -4.6% 44.00 44.00 43.00 43.00
RBC Capital Markets 60.00 55.00 45.00 45.00 -4.6% 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00
Deutsche Bank 40.00 43.00 46.00 42.00 -10.9% 45.00 50.00 na na
Timetric 50.00 46.00 44.00 42.00 -10.9% 42.00 40.00 40.00 47.00
Commonwealth Bank 48.00 42.00 39.00 38.00 -19.4% 38.00 41.00 43.00 44.00
Morgan Stanley 32.00 30.00 37.00 38.00 -19.4% 38.00 36.00 na na
Liberum Capital 35.00 35.00 37.00 37.00 -21.5% 37.00 37.00 40.00 40.00
Consensus (Mean) 47.16 45.69 46.24 46.02 -2.4% 45.24 45.60 47.65 46.92
High 60.00 60.85 62.02 62.62 63.09 63.31 63.75 64.30
Low 32.00 30.00 37.00 37.00 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00
Standard Deviation 8.15 7.99 6.34 6.74 7.24 7.59 7.72 7.51

Consensus Price for Australian Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Q3: US$41.42 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from Q3
1
Consensus (Mean) 41.42 38.79 38.76 38.29 -7.6% 36.40 36.05 39.33 38.91
High 54.56 49.56 46.60 45.90 43.00 43.00 48.00 43.00
Low 29.00 26.50 31.00 31.00 29.00 29.00 33.00 33.00
Standard Deviation 8.17 7.41 4.78 4.69 4.81 4.74 4.65 3.15
Q3: US$47.03 e Australian Lump Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
1
Consensus (Mean) 47.03 44.45 45.85 46.08 -2.0% 45.05 45.07 49.82 50.26
High 66.96 58.86 56.00 56.00 56.00 56.00 61.40 61.40
Low 33.35 29.15 37.82 37.82 38.44 38.44 43.59 43.59
Standard Deviation 10.59 9.19 6.85 6.36 5.70 5.57 6.61 6.84

Consensus Price for Brazilian Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Q3: US$43.69 e Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from Q3
Consensus (Mean) 1 43.69 40.62 40.95 41.50 -5.0% 39.84 38.26 42.16 43.92
High 57.00 52.00 51.50 60.00 57.00 54.00 53.00 66.00
Low 24.50 22.50 28.50 29.50 26.72 23.87 28.79 31.21
Standard Deviation 11.56 11.60 9.21 11.53 11.16 11.47 11.70 15.46
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet service.

Until April 2014, Iron ore was traded in world markets under contracts, with Consensus Forecast Prices
prices set by negotiation between iron ore producers and steel manufacturers. 56
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
Three suppliers, Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton account for most ocean trade
52
US$/T Australian
in iron ore, in which China remains by far the largest consumer. Fines are the China Lump, fob
most heavily traded category, while lump has generally traded at a premium 48 Fines, cfr
price. The annual benchmark price system has been dropped in favour of
quarterly prices based on prior average daily spot prices. 44

40
US$ Fines and Lump Iron Ore Prices
US$ per dry metric tonne 36 Brazilian
200 Australian
Fines, fob
180
Fines, fob
A u s tr a lia n L u mp 32
160 B r a z il Fin e s
Spot Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018

140 No r th Ch in a Fin e s
120
Baltic Capesize Index of Shipping Rates
100
20000

80 15000
60
10000
40

20 5000

0 0
Ja n 2 0 0 4 Ja n 2 0 0 6 Ja n 2 0 0 8 Ja n 2 0 1 0 Ja n 2 0 1 2 Ja n 2 0 1 4 Ja n 2 0 1 6 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
Annual contract prices prior to April 2010

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 19


ADDITIONAL METALS OCTOBER 2007
JUNE 2016
Forecasts for the metals shown on this and the next page were provided by the following leading forecasters:
ANZ Bank of America Merrill Lynch Barclays Capital
BNP Paribas Capital Economics Citigroup
CIMB Group Commonwealth Bank CPM International
China International Capital Corp. Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank
Euromonitor Economist Intelligence Unit HWWI
IHS Economics Investec JP Morgan
Liberium Capital Macquarie Morgan Stanley
Numis Securities Oxford Economics Prometeia
SG Commodity Research UBS Wilson HTM
Individual panellist forecasts for these minerals are available as part of our Excel spreadsheet service.
Please enquire at editors@consensuseconomics.com.

TIN (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$ Tin has its physical spot market
% 35000 centred in Kuala Lumpur with the
Forecast Range
US$/metric Consensus change LME recognised as the principal
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low 30000 hedging market.
Spot price 17005
Sep 2016 16499 -3.0% 17236 15432 25000 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
US$/tonne Contract Size: 5
Dec 2016 16521 -2.8% 17250 15249
20000 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Options:
Mar 2017 16706 -1.8% 17650 15000 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Jun 2017 16850 -0.9% 18100 15000 15000 Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Sep 2017 16985 -0.1% 18250 15334 Tin, Spot month contracts; then every third
10000
Price, LME Wednesday for 7 months out to 15
Dec 2017 17187 1.1% 18900 15076 US$/metric tonne,
months. Contracts Traded:
1.5% 19841 14910 fob
Mar 2018 17268 5000 1,463,139 (2015).
Jun 2018 17301 1.7% 19841 14807 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

(Nominal, Quarterly Averages)


COBALT US$ Cobalt is principally used as a
% super alloying agent because of
60
Forecast Range its anti-corrosive properties. It is
Consensus change
US$/lb commonly a by-product of nickel
(Mean) from spot High Low 50
Cobalt, Spot Price and used in the production of al-
Spot price 10.88 loys, catalysts and batteries. The
US$/lb, fob
40
Sep 2016 11.44 5.1% 15.00 10.50 LME launched futures contracts in
Dec 2016 11.60 6.6% 15.00 10.50 cobalt in February 2010.
30
Mar 2017 11.86 9.0% 15.00 10.75
Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Jun 2017 11.96 9.9% 15.00 10.75 20
US$/tonne Contract Size: 1 tonne
Sep 2017 12.17 11.9% 15.00 10.75 Delivery Options: 1 tonne lots in
10
Dec 2017 12.23 12.4% 15.00 10.75 100-500kg drums of uniform size
Mar 2018 12.25 12.6% 13.00 10.78 0
and weight.
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jun 2018 12.41 14.0% 13.00 10.78 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

MANGANESE (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Manganese is not exchange-


US$
traded so prices are established
% 18.0
Forecast Range by negotiation between buyers
US$/metric Consensus change Manganese, Spot and sellers. Negotiations occur in
tonne unit (Mean) from spot High Low 15.0 Price line with the beginning of the Japa-
US$/dmtu
Spot price 3.650 nese fiscal year in April. Follow-
12.0 (1/100 of a tonne) of
Sep 2016 2.919 -20.0% 3.182 2.300 44% manganese Ore ing the setting of prices with Japa-
nese manufacturing companies,
Dec 2016 2.697 -26.1% 3.000 2.300 9.0
similar settlement prices are set
Mar 2017 2.652 -27.3% 3.200 2.273 worldwide.
6.0
Jun 2017 2.631 -27.9% 3.200 2.045
Sep 2017 2.631 -27.9% 3.200 2.045 The price is based upon a bench-
3.0
mark ore of 44% manganese con-
Dec 2017 2.650 -27.4% 3.200 2.159
tent, Cif, Tianjin, China.
Mar 2018 2.649 -27.4% 3.400 2.205 0.0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jun 2018 2.654 -27.3% 3.400 2.227 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

20 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 ADDITIONAL METALS
MOLYBDENUM Molybdenum is principally used as
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$
an alloying agent in steel because
% 35 of its anti-corrosive properties. As
Forecast Range
Consensus change a by-product of copper, production
US$/lb 30
(Mean) from spot High Low Molybdenum, costs are low and prices can be
Spot price 7.710 25
Spot Price influenced by the price and de-
US$/lb, fob mand for nickel and stainless steel,
Sep 2016 5.817 -24.6% 7.000 5.000
20 as well as molybdenum roasting
Dec 2016 5.778 -25.1% 6.690 5.000 capacity.
Mar 2017 5.900 -23.5% 6.917 5.200 15

Jun 2017 5.950 -22.8% 7.144 5.000 Futures Market: LME (since Feb-
10
-20.7% 7.371 5.000
ruary 2010) Pricing: US$/tonne
Sep 2017 6.112
5 Contract Size: 6 tonnes Mo (+/-5%
Dec 2017 6.184 -19.8% 7.598 5.000 (Mo content 57-63%) Delivery Op-
Mar 2018 6.571 -14.8% 7.500 5.500 0 tions: 10 tonnes (RMC), deliverable
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jun 2018 6.508 -15.6% 7.500 5.500 in 200 or 250kg drums.
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

RUTILE (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Mineral sand prices are principally


US$ determined by derived demand.
% 2400 Rutile is used to make titanium di-
Forecast Range
US$/metric Consensus change 2200 Rutile, oxide (it is approximately 95% TiO2
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low Spot Price in its mineral form), which can be
2000
US$/metric
Spot price 675.0 e 1800 tonne, fob
used to make titanium or as a white
Sep 2016 719.6 6.6% 812.5 600.0 pigment in papers, plastics and
1600
paints and cosmetics.
Dec 2016 724.6 7.4% 812.5 620.0 1400
Mar 2017 763.6 13.1% 900.0 670.0 1200 Prices are set under long-term con-
Jun 2017 768.6 13.9% 900.0 675.0 1000 tracts between producers (many of
Sep 2017 789.3 16.9% 900.0 650.0 800 which will produce from mine to
end use) and consumers.
Dec 2017 792.9 17.5% 900.0 675.0 600

Mar 2018 861.7 27.7% 1000.0 700.0 400


Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Jun 2018 865.8 28.3% 1000.0 725.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

ILMENITE (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$ Ilmenite is mined alongside rutile


and is also used to make titanium
% 340
Forecast Range Ilmenite, dioxide (it is approximately 54%
US$/metric Consensus change Spot Price
300 TiO2 in its mineral form). Prices are
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low US$/metric
set under long-term contracts. The
Spot price 105.0 e tonne, fob
260 value of ilmenite is substantially
Sep 2016 100.0 -4.8% 130.0 80.0 lower than that of rutile and is there-
220
Dec 2016 100.8 -4.0% 130.0 85.0 fore often used to produce synthetic
1.1% 140.0 90.0 180 rutile. 90% of titanium metal is
Mar 2017 106.2
sourced from ilmenite.
Jun 2017 106.3 1.3% 140.0 90.0 140
Sep 2017 111.0 5.7% 140.0 90.0 Australia is the worlds largest pro-
100
Dec 2017 111.7 6.3% 140.0 90.0 ducer (55%) of ilmenite and rutile
19.0% 150.0 95.0
followed by South Africa (24%) and
Mar 2018 125.0 60
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Ukraine (16%).
Jun 2018 125.0 19.0% 150.0 95.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

ZIRCON (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$ The price of Zircon (which is


3200 mainly used in ceramics and tiles)
% Zircon,
Forecast Range is set under long-term contracts be-
US$/metric Consensus change 2800 Premium tween producers and consumers.
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low Bulk,
Spot Price It has risen sharply in recent years
Spot price 917.8 e 2400
US $/metric following the move from spot-trad-
Sep 2016 917.8 0.0% 970.0 830.0 2000
tonne, fob ing to contract-trading.
Dec 2016 917.1 -0.1% 970.0 850.0
1600 Iluka is the worlds largest zircon
Mar 2017 966.0 5.3% 1100.0 875.0
miner and as a result the most in-
Jun 2017 969.6 5.6% 1100.0 850.0 1200 fluential in setting a benchmark
Sep 2017 994.6 8.4% 1100.0 875.0 price. Its Eucla basin in Australia is
800
Dec 2017 1008.9 9.9% 1100.0 900.0 mined principally for zircon unlike
400
the majority of other mines, for
Mar 2018 1104.2 20.3% 1250.0 925.0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan which zircon is a coproduct of rutile
Jun 2018 1108.3 20.8% 1250.0 950.0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 and ilmenite.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 21
GOLD JUNE 2016
Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Survey Date Spot Price Gold Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce
(Jun. 20): US$1290 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
ABN Amro 1325 1360 1370 1385 7.4% 1413 1438 na na
Capital Economics 1300 1325 1355 1370 6.2% 1385 1395 na na
RBC Capital Markets 1275 1300 1300 1300 0.8% 1300 1300 1300 1300
Credit Suisse 1300 1325 1350 1275 -1.1% 1300 1325 1250 1250
CPM Group 1232 1250 1272 1269 -1.6% 1282 1304 1304 1327
Investec 1245 1245 1260 1260 -2.3% 1270 1270 1275 1275
Bank of China International 1270 1260 1250 1250 -3.1% na na na na
Commonwealth Bank 1220 1260 1235 1245 -3.5% 1225 1215 1212 1219
Macquarie 1230 1215 1250 1230 -4.6% 1250 1275 1275 1300
Euromonitor International 1236 1232 1230 1227 -4.8% 1226 1226 1228 1232
Oxford Economics 1250 1200 1200 1226 -4.9% 1231 1236 1240 1245
UBS 1265 1240 1250 1225 -5.0% 1275 1250 1300 1300
Moody's Analytics 1247 1228 1210 1203 -6.7% 1194 1194 1213 1245
BoA Merrill Lynch 1150 1250 1300 1200 -6.9% 1300 1500 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 1230 1200 1175 1200 -6.9% 1175 1150 1170 1150
Liberum Capital 1200 1200 1200 1200 -6.9% 1200 1200 1200 1200
TD Economics 1225 1200 1195 1185 -8.1% 1175 1175 na na
Deutsche Bank 1170 1230 1250 1175 -8.9% 1210 1290 na na
Banco de Credito del Peru 1170 1170 1170 1170 -9.3% 1160 1160 1170 1170
Citigroup 1300 1250 1200 1150 -10.8% 1200 1250 na na
Morgan Stanley 1150 1180 1150 1150 -10.8% 1150 1150 na na
Timetric 1190 1190 1200 1150 -10.8% 1150 1150 1150 1250
IHS Global Insight 1182 1158 1147 1150 -10.9% 1147 1147 1143 na
Australia Dept of Industry 1185 1185 1105 1105 -14.3% 1105 1105 1045 1045
Consensus (Mean) 1231 1236 1234 1221 -5.3% 1231 1248 1217 1234
High 1325 1360 1370 1385 1413 1500 1304 1327
Low 1150 1158 1105 1105 1105 1105 1045 1045
Standard Deviation 49.5 51.6 67.2 67.6 76.5 98.9 70.3 71.9

Gold, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices


London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
2000
US$/troy ounce 1350
1800 US$/troy oz
1325
1600
1300
1400 COMEX Futures
1275
1200
1000 1250

800 1225

600
Consensus
1200
400
1175
200 Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Price Rises to Two-Year High


Gold Futures August 2016 Contract (COMEX) Gold rose to its highest level in nearly two
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
US$ Index years on June 16 to just above US$1,300/
1350 92 troy ounce (middle left chart).
1300 The precious metal has benefited from global
94
1250
uncertainty, notably the recent Brexit vote in
96
the United Kingdom, and an upswing in de-
1200
US$ Index mand for safe haven assets.
1150
(rhs, inverted scale) 98 The sharp increase in the price of gold has
1100 encouraged greater investment in the metal,
Gold Futures, Aug. 2016 100 despite it providing zero yield. The consen-
1050
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) sus is predicting that price will average
1000 102
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 A pr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 US$1234/troy ounce in 2017, a little above
that of 2016 (US$1226).
Gold Supply and Demand (2014) Gold prices are fixed twice daily by the LBMA provid-
Production tonnes % of world Consumption tonnes % of world ing a benchmark price for trades on various exchanges
and over-the-counter trades.
1 China 450 15.1% 1. India 843 26.2%
2 Australia 274 9.2% 2. China 814 25.3% US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
3 Russia 247 8.3% 3. USA 179 5.6% Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3 cal-
4 USA 210 7.0% 4. Turkey 123 3.8% endar months; any February, April, August and October
5 Canada 152 5.1% 5. Germany 101 3.2% within 23 months; and any June and December within
World 2990 World 3217 72 months. Contracts Traded: 41,847,338 (2015).
22 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 SILVER
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Silver Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce


(Jun. 20): US$17.48 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
ABN Amro 18.50 19.50 20.50 21.50 23.0% 22.50 23.50 na na
Capital Economics 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.25 15.8% 20.63 20.88 na na
Macquarie 15.75 16.00 17.50 17.50 0.1% 18.50 18.75 19.00 20.00
CPM Group 16.00 16.80 17.22 17.48 0.0% 17.13 17.55 17.55 17.92
Investec 16.82 16.82 17.03 17.03 -2.6% 17.40 17.40 17.47 17.47
BoA Merrill Lynch 16.00 17.00 18.50 17.00 -2.7% 18.50 21.50 na na
UBS 16.80 16.70 17.00 16.90 -3.3% 18.10 18.00 19.00 19.00
RBC Capital Markets 15.75 16.00 16.50 16.50 -5.6% 16.50 16.50 17.50 17.50
Bank of China International 16.93 16.80 16.03 16.03 -8.3% na na na na
Commonwealth Bank 15.75 16.25 15.85 16.00 -8.5% 16.75 17.50 18.00 18.50
Liberum Capital 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 -8.5% 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00
Banco de Credito del Peru 14.90 15.10 15.40 15.91 -9.0% 16.13 16.24 16.24 16.24
Credit Suisse 16.70 17.00 17.40 15.60 -10.8% 16.20 16.90 17.00 17.00
Morgan Stanley 14.20 14.50 15.40 15.40 -11.9% 15.40 15.40 na na
Deutsche Bank 14.90 15.20 16.00 15.00 -14.2% 15.50 16.50 na na
TD Economics 16.00 15.50 15.25 15.00 -14.2% 14.75 14.75 na na
Citigroup 16.50 16.20 15.00 14.80 -15.3% 15.00 15.50 na na
Timetric 15.50 14.70 14.50 14.70 -15.9% 14.70 14.70 15.00 15.60
IHS Global Insight 15.53 14.82 14.47 14.23 -18.6% 14.25 14.44 14.60 na
Consensus (Mean) 16.12 16.30 16.59 16.46 -5.8% 16.89 17.33 17.03 17.52
High 18.50 19.50 20.50 21.50 22.50 23.50 19.00 20.00
Low 14.20 14.50 14.47 14.23 14.25 14.44 14.60 15.60
Standard Deviation 1.01 1.28 1.65 1.83 2.15 2.47 1.45 1.39

Silver, Spot Price (Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices


Ratio Prices and Forecasts as at Survey Date
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)
50.0 100 19.00
45.0
US$/troy ounce US$/troy oz
90 18.50
40.0 COMEX Futures
18.00
35.0 80
30.0 17.50
70
25.0 17.00
20.0 60 Consensus
16.50
15.0 50
16.00
10.0
Gold/Silver Spot 40 15.50
5.0
Silver Spot Price (lhs) Price Ratio (rhs) Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
0.0 30
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016

Demand Fuelled by Solar Panels


Silver Futures September 2016 Contract (COMEX) Silver has performed well thus far in 2016,
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
US$ rising by over 25% in the year to date.
20.0
Driven in part by government incentives, the
precious metal, which possesses high elec-
18.0 trical conductivity, has benefited from an in-
crease in demand for solar panels. While the
16.0 amount of silver being used in solar cells is
being reduced, the market for this renewable
14.0 energy generator is currently thought to be
expanding by around 20% per year.
12.0 Prices are set to stabilise over the coming
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 A pr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 quarters, averaging around US$15.99/troy
ounce this year.
World Production and Uses of Silver (2014) Silver, like gold, has a price set by members of the
LBMA which is used as a benchmark for over-the-
Producer Millions of Ounces Use % of total demand
counter trades.
1. Mexico 192.9 1. Industrial Fabrication 55.7 US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
2. Peru 121.5 2. Jewellery 20.2 Contract Size: 5,000 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3
3. China 114.7 3. Coins & Bars 18.4 calendar months; any January, March, May and Sep-
4. Australia 59.4 4. Silverware 5.7 tember within 23 months; and any July and December
5. Chile 50.6 5. Photography 4.3 within 60 months. ContractsTraded: 13,454,406 (2015).
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 23
PLATINUM JUNE 2016
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Platinum Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce


(Jun. 20): US$983.9 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
ABN Amro 1125 1175 1225 1275 29.6% 1325 1375 na na
IHS Global Insight 1085 1096 1162 1197 21.6% 1227 1243 1255 na
BoA Merrill Lynch 1100 1150 1150 1150 16.9% 1150 1150 na na
Liberum Capital 1050 1050 1100 1100 11.8% 1150 1150 1200 1200
Capital Economics 1005 1040 1065 1090 10.8% 1115 1140 na na
Commonwealth Bank 1004 1056 1054 1081 9.8% 1082 1091 1107 1131
Bank of China International 1058 1050 1050 1050 6.7% na na na na
CPM Group 950 920 1000 1050 6.7% 1025 1010 1010 1050
RBC Capital Markets 1025 1000 1050 1050 6.7% 1050 1050 1100 1100
UBS 1040 990 1000 1020 3.7% 1100 1200 1295 1295
Citigroup 980 990 1000 1010 2.7% 1050 1090 na na
Investec 984 984 1008 1008 2.5% 1016 1016 1020 1020
Macquarie 950 975 1025 1000 1.6% 1050 1100 1175 1200
Morgan Stanley 938 951 965 979 -0.5% 994 1008 na na
Deutsche Bank 960 950 920 860 -12.6% 840 940 na na

Consensus (Mean) 1017 1025 1052 1061 7.9% 1084 1112 1145 1142

High 1125 1175 1225 1275 1325 1375 1295 1295


Low 938 920 920 860 840 940 1010 1020
Standard Deviation 58 73 80 98 114 112 104 96

Platinum, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices


US$
London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
Ratio
US$/troy ounce
2250 2.6 1200
US$/troy oz
2000 2.4
1150
Platinum Spot Price 2.2
1750 Consensus
(lhs) 2.0
1100
1500 1.8
1250 1.6 1050

1000 1.4
1.2 1000
750
1.0 NYMEX Futures
500 950
0.8
Platinum/Gold Spot Price Ratio (rhs) Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
250 0.6 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016

Platinum Set to Outperform Gold


Platinum Futures October 2016 Contract (NYMEX)
US$ US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close According to Implats, the worlds second-
largest producer of platinum, increased
1100
wages in the South African mining industry
1050 are not being accompanied by correspond-
ing pickups in productivity, resulting in higher
1000
production costs for firms.
950 The price of platinum has slid during the past
900 month, due in part to soft Chinese demand,
but our panel is anticipating that it will trend
850
upwards over the coming quarters.
800 At present, platinum is much cheaper than
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 A pr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 gold, at less than 80% of its price. This re-
verses the trend from earlier this decade.
Platinum Production and Consumption (2014) Platinum prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM to
Production % of world total Consumption % of world total provide a benchmark price in a practice similar to
1. South Africa 68.3 1. China 30.4 that used for gold and silver.
2. Russia 15.5 2. Western Europe 22.6 US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/troy
3. Zimbabwe 6.8 3. Japan 12.2 ounce Lot Size: 50 troy ounces Deliverability: Over
4. North America 6.7 4. North America 11.9 15 months including the next 3 calendar months; then
a January, April, June and October cycle. Contracts
Rest of the World 2.4 Rest of the World 17.6 Traded: 3,641,144 (2015)
24 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016
JUNE 2016 PALLADIUM
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Palladium Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce


(Jun. 20): US$545.9 Sep '16 Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 % change Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18
from spot
UBS 615.0 590.0 650.0 750.0 37.4% 800.0 820.0 850.0 850.0
Capital Economics 600.0 640.0 675.0 715.0 31.0% 740.0 765.0 na na
RBC Capital Markets 625.0 650.0 700.0 700.0 28.2% 700.0 700.0 750.0 750.0
ABN Amro 630.0 650.0 670.0 690.0 26.4% 710.0 730.0 na na
Deutsche Bank 600.0 650.0 650.0 660.0 20.9% 640.0 680.0 na na
BoA Merrill Lynch 700.0 650.0 650.0 650.0 19.1% 750.0 750.0 na na
Morgan Stanley 557.0 579.0 602.0 626.0 14.7% 652.0 680.0 na na
Liberum Capital 596.8 596.8 625.3 625.3 14.5% 653.7 653.7 682.1 682.1
Macquarie 615.0 650.0 650.0 625.0 14.5% 650.0 675.0 725.0 750.0
IHS Global Insight 615.0 628.2 632.3 622.8 14.1% 608.3 591.0 563.1 na
CPM Group 550.0 575.0 600.0 610.0 11.7% 605.0 630.0 630.0 655.0
Citigroup 570.0 580.0 580.0 600.0 9.9% 650.0 680.0 na na
Investec 562.0 562.0 584.0 584.0 7.0% 589.0 589.0 600.0 600.0
Bank of China International 588.0 583.3 583.3 583.3 6.9% na na na na

Consensus (Mean) 601.7 613.2 632.3 645.8 18.3% 672.9 688.0 685.7 714.5

High 700.0 650.0 700.0 750.0 800.0 820.0 850.0 850.0


Low 550.0 562.0 580.0 583.3 589.0 589.0 563.1 600.0
Standard Deviation 38.2 34.8 37.8 50.9 62.9 66.6 98.5 87.8

Palladium, Spot Price (PM Fixing),


US$ London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
1000
900 800
US$/troy ounce US$/troy oz
800
750
700 Consensus
700
600
500 650

400 600
300
550
200 NYMEX Futures
100 500
Spot Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
0 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016

Price Recovery Expected


Palladium Futures September 2016 Contract (NYMEX)
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close Palladium has performed poorly in recent
US$
650
weeks, declining more than 5% compared
with our May survey (middle left chart).
600
Its price has barely risen from end-2015, but
is forecast to outperform other precious
metals over the coming quarters. High sales
550
of petrol-based cars across Europe should
provide a boost to demand for palladium,
500
which is used in the production of catalytic
converters to control carbon emissions.
450
The ongoing adoption of more stringent
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 A pr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016
emission regulations in China are support-
ive of the price outlook.
Palladium Production and Consumption (2014) Palladium prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM to
Production % of world total Consumption % of world total provide a benchmark price in a practice used for other
1. Russia 42.6 1. North America 26.6 precious metals. Most palladium is used in catalytic
2. South Africa 31.6 2. China 22.3 converters. US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/
3. North America 15.4 3. Europe 21.5 troy ounce Lot Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability:
4. Zimbabwe 5.2 4. Japan 10.1 Over 15 months including the next 3 calendar months;
then a March, June, September and December cycle.
Rest of the World 5.3 Rest of the World 19.5 Contracts Traded: 1,344,426 (2015).
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 25
REAL (INFLATION-ADJUSTED) COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS JUNE 2016
Nominal prices are expressed in fixed money terms in a given real long-term consensus price forecasts (for the 6-10 year
year, while real values adjust for inflation over the years. In rolling aggregate periods) back to January 2008. These price
the historical data charts below and on the next page (cov- forecasts (blue line) are based on the US dollar level for the
ering 1994 to 2016), we show commodity price series in both year in which they are made i.e figures from our 2008 survey
nominal (black line) and real terms (purple). Nominal values are inflation-adjusted at 2008 US dollar prices. In order to
are stated in current 2016 US$ prices (definitions on indi- make the historical long-term price forecasts comparable with
vidual commodity pages), while the real price series inflates those made in subsequent periods the last three of which
the nominal values using the US CPI index (Jan. 2016 = 100). are in 2016 US dollar terms we have adjusted the series
Real prices are important in the analysis of project feasibility using US CPI (dashed grey line), in much the same way as
and other long-term investment decisions, as is the choice we did with the historical data. For several commodities, the
of deflator. Adjustments based on general purpose price indi- long-term forecasts table on page 5 suggests that the real
ces may be adequate for exploratory data analysis. To the consensus price expectations can be 50% above (e.g. Ura-
right of each historical data chart, we graph changes in the nium) or almost 20% below current spot prices.
Crude Oil (WTI) Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts
US$ per barrel Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
160.0
Spot: 49.40 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
140.0 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
120.0 115
Real
100.0 105

80.0 Adjusted Series (WTI)


95

60.0 Brent1
85
40.0
Nominal 75
Real 6-10 Year Consensus
20.0
Crude Oil Price Forecasts WTI
65
0.0 1
Long-term forecasts for Brent included from April 2011.
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 55

US Natural Gas Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts
US$/MMBtu Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
16.0
Spot: 2.73 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
14.0 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016

12.0
12.0
10.0
Real
10.0
8.0 Adjusted Series

6.0
8.0 US Natural Gas Prices,
Real 6-10 Year Consensus
4.0 6.0
Nominal Forecasts
2.0
4.0
0.0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 2.0

Aluminium Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per tonne Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
3500
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
Spot: 1608 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
3000
3000
Real
2500
2800 Aluminium Prices,
Adjusted Series
2000 2600
Real 6-10 Year Consensus
Forecasts
1500 2400
Nominal
2200
1000
2000
500
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 1800

Copper Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per tonne Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
12000
Spot: 4585 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
10000 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
7000
8000 6500
Adjusted Series
6000
6000
Real 5500
4000 Copper Prices,
5000
Real 6-10 Year Consensus
2000 4500
Nominal Forecasts
4000
0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 3500

26 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016


JUNE 2016 REAL (INFLATION-ADJUSTED) COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

Nickel Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per tonne Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
60000
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
Real Spot: 9210 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
50000
22000

40000 21000

20000
30000 Adjusted Series
19000
20000 18000

17000
Nickel Prices,
10000
Nominal Real 6-10 Year Consensus
16000
0 Forecasts
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 15000

Lead Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per tonne Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
4500

4000
Spot: 1702 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
3500
Real 2400

3000 2200
2500 2000
Adjusted Series
2000 1800
1500
1600
1000
1400
Lead Prices,
500 Nominal Real 6-10 Year Consensus Forecasts
1200
0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 1000

Zinc Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per tonne Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
6000
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
Spot: 1990 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
5000
2400
Real
4000 2300
Adjusted Series
2200
3000
2100
2000
2000
1900
1000
Zinc Prices,
1800
Nominal Real 6-10 Year Consensus
1700
0 Forecasts
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 1600

Gold Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per oz. Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
2000
1800 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
1600
1300
1400
1200
1200
1000 1100

800 1000
600
Real Spot: 1290 Adjusted Series
900
400
Nominal 800
Gold Prices,
200 Real 6-10 Year Consensus
700
0 Forecasts
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 600

Silver Prices Historical Data Real Long-Term 6-10 Year Forecasts


US$ per oz. Consensus Forecasts from survey of:
45.0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
40.0 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Spot: 17.48 22.0
35.0
20.0
30.0
18.0
25.0
Adjusted Series
20.0 16.0

15.0 14.0

10.0
Real 12.0
5.0
Nominal Silver Prices,
10.0
Real 6-10 Year Consensus Forecasts
0.0 8.0
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016 27


Consensus Forecasts Percentage Changes From Spot Price JUNE 2016
During the Next Seven Quarters

% Change

60.0

50.0
Uranium

40.0

30.0

Nickel
20.0

Crude Oil, Brent


10.0
Copper
Aluminium
0.0

Gold
-10.0

-20.0
Spot Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC.

Established in London in 1989, Consensus Economics prepares monthly compilations of country economic fore-
casts and topical analyses covering the G-7 Industrialised Nations, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin
America, as well as specialised publications on Foreign Exchange Forecasts and Energy and Metal Price
Forecasts. Over the past two decades Consensus Economics has cultivated a growing network of economists,
drawing upon the expertise of well-established local consultancies and large teams of professionals in banks who
are dedicated to particular countries and regions.

Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts is available at US$790 or 495 or 645 or A$825 for 12 monthly
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06/2016 EMCF

28 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2016

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