CH 14 Simulation

354444447.
xls Simulation Inputs
Ch 14 Simulation 1/29/2001
Chapter 14. Tool Kit for Monte Carlo Simulation
If an error box like the one displayed at the right appeared when you opened this file, then you have not
correctly installed the Excel Add-In, Simtools.xla. You should close Excel without saving and read the
instructions in the file "Explanation of Simulation.doc," which explains how to install Simtools.xla. Only
open this Excel file, Ch 14 Simulation, after you have correctly installed Simtools.xla.
This worksheet contains the model used to analyze RIC's new project decision as described in the text.
It is the same model as in "Ch 14 Tool Kit.xls," but with a Monte Carlo simulation added. There are
many available simulation software packages, such as @Risk, but they are not free. For the analysis in
this spreadsheet, we have used a free package that works very well for simple simulations. If your model
is very complicated, then you would be better off using one of the commercial packages. But for simple
models, the approach we show in this spreadsheet will work fine.
We assume that you have correctly installed an Excel Add-In, Simtools.xla, developed by Professor
Roger Myerson at Northwestern University. If not, then close Excel and read the instructions in the file
"Explanation of Simulation.doc." For more information on Simtools, go to the web site
http://www.kellogg.nwu.edu/faculty/myerson/ftp/addins.htm.
Simulation Analysis
Step 1: Load Simtools.xla

Make sure Simtools is available, using the procedure described in the file "Explanation of Simulation.doc."
Step 2: Decide on distributions for risky variables
We assumed that sales price can be represented by a continuous normal distribution with an
expected value of $3.00 and a standard deviation of $0.35. Recall from statistics that there is
about a 68 percent chance that the actual price will be within one standard deviation of the
expected price, which is a range of $2.65 to $3.35. Put another way, there is a 32 percent
chance that the price will fall outside this range. The standard deviation also provides insight
into the maximum likely dispersion of sales prices. There is less than a one percent chance
that the actual price will be more than three standard deviations of the expected price, which
is a range of $1.95 to $4.05. In other words, the sales price is very unlikely to be less than
$1.95 or more than $4.05.
Sales Price: Normal distribution

Mean= 3.00
Standard deviation= 0.35
Page 1
Michael C. Ehrhardt 05/10/2017
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.
354444447.xls Simulation Inputs
RIC has existing labor contracts and strong relationships with some of its suppliers, which
makes the variable cost less uncertain. We assumed that the variable cost can be described by
a triangular distribution, with a lower bound of $1.40, a most likely value of $2.10, and an
upper bound of $2.50. Notice that this is not a symmetric distribution. The lower bound is
$0.70 less than the most likely value, and the upper bound is only $0.40 higher than the most
likely value. This is because RIC has an active risk management program in place to hedge
against increases in the prices of commodities it uses in its production processes.
Variable costs: Triangular distribution

Lower bound= 1.40
Most likely= 2.10
Upper bound= 2.50
Based on preliminary purchase agreements with major customers, RIC is certain that sales in
the first year will be at least 15,000 units. RICs marketing department believes the most
likely demand will be for 20,000 units. However, it is possible that demand may be much
higher. The new production facility can produce a maximum of only 30,000 units in the first
year, although it will be able to produce more in subsequent years if there is higher than
expected demand. Therefore, we represented Year 1 unit sales with a triangular distribution,
having a lower bound of 15,000 units, a most likely value of 20,000 units, and an upper bound
of 30,000 units.
Unit sales: Triangular distribution

Lower bound= 15,000
Most likely= 20,000
Upper bound= 30,000
The marketing department anticipates no growth in unit sales after the first year. However,
actual sales growth could be either positive or negative, and it is likely to be positively
correlated with the number of units sold in the first year. In other words, if demand is higher
than expected in the first year, then growth will probably be higher than expected in
subsequent years. We represented growth with a normal distribution having an expected
value of zero percent and a standard deviation of 15 percent. We also specified that the
correlation between Year 1 unit sales and growth should be 65 percent.
Growth Rate: Normal distribution

Mean= 0%
Standard deviation= 15%
Correlation with unit sales= 65%
Notice that the growth rate in sales is positively correlated with the level of unit
sales. If demand is higher than expected, then unit sales will be higher than
expected and growth in sales will be higher than expected.
Page 2
Step 3: Replace model input values with risky variables
You can use the Function Wizard to create random variables for the inputs. Here is how
the random variable functions work. The first argument in the function is itself a random
variable with a uniform distribution between 0 and 1. This is given by the Excel function
=RAND(); notice that RAND needs no argument. Calling =RAND() will generate a random
variable uniformly distibuted between 0 and 1.
The other arguments for the random variable functions define the probability
distribution. For example, the normal probability distribution is defined by its mean and
standard deviation. For example, to create a normally distributed random variable with
mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 10 (which corresponds to the distribution from IQ
tests), you would enter =NORMINV(RAND(),100,10). The function takes the value of
RAND() and converts this uniformly distributed variable into a normally distributed variable
with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The output would be a normally
distributed random variable with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.
As stated above, the first argment in the random variable functions will be a random
variable with a uniform distribution. The other arguments will be the parameters that define
the distribution, and they are obtained from Step 2.
Because we want Growth to be correlated with Unit Sales, we must add another random
variable. We call this a Demand Indicator. It is uniformly distributed, and it will be the first
argument of the random variable function for Unit Sales. The other arguments for the
triangular distribution of Unit Sales are the lower bound, the most likely value, and the upper
bound. So the function would be =TRIANINV(Demand Indicator,lower bound,most likely,
upper bound), where Demand Indicator is itself a uniform random variable created by
RAND(). TRIANINV takes the uniformly distributed variable Demand Indicator and coverts
it into a variable that has a triangular distribution with the specified lower bound, most
likely, and upper bound.
To create the correlated Growth, we must create another uniformly distributed random
variable that has the desired correlation with Unit Sales (which itself is driven by the Demand
Indicator variable). The CORAND function does this. CORAND's first argument is the
correlation and its second argument a uniformly distributed random variable. For example,
=CORAND(0.9,Demand Indicator) would create a uniformly distributed random variable
that has a 0.9 correlation with Demand Indicator. To get a normally distributed random
variable for Growth that is correlated with Unit Sales, we use the function
=NORMINV(CORAND(Correlation,Demand Indicator),Mean,Standard Deviation). (Note:
CORAND can also create more than two random variables that have a desired correlation
matrix, but this is beyond the scope of this model. See the Simtools web site listed above for
more details on this feature.)
Input Function Resulting Random Variable

Sales Price NORMINV $2.42
Variable Cost TRIANINV Err:511
Demand Indicator RAND 0.26
Unit Sales TRIANINV Err:511
Page 3
Correlate
d with
Demand
Indicator CORAND Err:511
Growth Rate NORMINV Err:511
Notice that the resulting random variables change each time the spreadsheet peforms a
calculation. To see this, hit the F9 key.
We have replaced the input values for Sales Price, Variable Costs, Unit Sales, and Growth in
Part 1 of Table 14-3, shown below, with links to the random variables shown above.
Therefore, every time the spreadsheet peforms a calcualtion, it also is finding a new NPV,
based on the new set of inputs. To see this, try hitting F9.
Original New, based on current simulation

Sales Price = $3.00 $2.42
Variable Cost = $2.10 Err:511
Unit Sales = 20,000 Err:511
Growth = 0.0% Err:511
NPV = $5,809 Err:511
Step 4: Run the Simulation and Analyze the Results

The full model for the capital budgeting project is shown below. We include it because it is
required for all the calculations, but you won't need to modify it (or even look at it) to do the
simulation. The simulation will automatically pull seleced inputs and outputs from this
model. To run the simulation, click on the Tab named Run Simulation and follow the
directions on that sheet.
Model for Evaluating A New Capital Budgeting Project:
Table 14-3. Analysis of a New (Expansion) Project
Part 1. Input Data (in thousands of dollars)

Key Output: NPV Err:511
Building cost (= Depreciable basis) $12,000
Equipment cost (= Depreciable basi $8,000 Market value of building in 2006 $7,500
Net Operating WC / Sales 10% Market value of equip. in 2006 $2,000
First year sales (in units) Err:511 Tax rate 40%
Growth rate in units sold Err:511 WACC 12%
Sales price per unit $2.42 Inflation: growth in sales price 2.0%
Variable cost per unit Err:511 Inflation: growth in VC per unit 2.0%
Fixed costs $8,000 Inflation: growth in fixed costs 1.0%
Part 2. Depreciation Schedule a Years Cumulative

1 2 3 4 Depr'n
Building Depr'n Rate 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Building Depr'n $156 $312 $312 $312 $1,092
Page 4
Ending Book Val: Cost - Cum. Depr'n 11,844 11,532 11,220 $10,908
Equipment Depr'n Rate 20.0% 32.0% 19.0% 12.0%

Equipment Depr'n $1,600 $2,560 $1,520 $960 $6,640
Ending Book Val: Cost - Cum. Depr'n 6,400 3,840 2,320 $1,360
to determine the depreciation expense for the year. The correct depreciation percentages for the building depend
upon
a
the month that the building is put in service. Because this analysis assumes that all cash flows occur at the end
ofThe
the indicated percentages
year, and to are multiplied
prevent unnecessary by the depreciable
complexity, basis ($12,000
we have rounded for the building
the depreciation and $8,000
percentages for thefor the equipment)
building.
See the Tab named Depreciation for more details.
Part 3 of Table 14-3. Net Salvage Values in 2006

Building Equipment Total
Estimated Market Value in 2006 $7,500 $2,000
Book Value in 2006b 10,908 1,360
Expected Gain or Loss c
-3,408 640
Taxes paid or tax credit -1,363 256
Net cash flow from salvaged $8,863 $1,744 $10,607
b
Book value equals depreciable basis (initial cost in this case) minus accumulated MACRS depreciation. For the
building, accumulated depreciation equals $1,092, so book value equals $12,000 - $1,092 = $10,908. For the equipment,
accumulated depreciation equals $6,640, so book value equals $8,000 - $6,640 = $1,360.
c
Building: $7,500 market value - $10,908 book value = -$3,408, a loss. This represents a shortfall in depreciation
taken versus "true" depreciation, and it is treated as an operating expense for 2005. Equipment: $2,000 market value -
"depreciation recapture". It is taxed as ordinary income in 2006. The actual book value at the time of disposition
$1,360 book
depends value
on the = $640
month profit. HereWe
of disposition. thehave
depreciation charge
simplified exceedsand
the analysis theassumed
"true" depreciation, and
that there will bethe difference
a full year of is called
depreciation in 2006.
d
Net cash flow from salvage equals salvage (market) value minus taxes. For the building, the loss results in a tax credit, so
net salvage value = $7,500 - (-$1,363) = $8,863.
Part 4 of Table 14-3. Projected Net Cas Years

Flows (Time line of annual cash flows) 0 1 2 3 4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Investment Outlays: Long-Term Assets
Building ($12,000)
Equipment (8,000)
Operating Cash Flows over the Project's Life

Units sold Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Sales price $2.42 $2.46 $2.51 $2.56
Sales revenue Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Variable costs Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Fixed operating costs 8,000 8,080 8,161 8,242
Depreciation (building) 156 312 312 312
Depreciation (equipment) 1,600 2,560 1,520 960
Oper. income before taxes (EBIT) Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Taxes on operating income (40%) Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Add back depreciation 1,756 2,872 1,832 1,272
Page 5
Operating cash flow Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Cash Flows Due to Net Operating Working Capital

Net Operating Working Capital (based on sales Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 $0
Cash flow due to investment in NOWC Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Salvage Cash Flows: Long-Term Assets

Net salvage cash flow: Building $8,863
Net salvage cash flow: Equipment 1,744
Total salvage cash flows $10,607
Net Cash Flow (Time line of cash flows) Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Part 5 of Table 14-3. Key Output and Appraisal of the Proposed Project
Net Present Value (at 12%) Err:511

IRR Err:511
MIRR #NUM!
Simulation Analysis
Step 1: Load Simtools.xla
Step 2: Decide on distributions for risky variables
Unit Sales: Normal distribution
Mean= 20,000
Standard deviation= 3,000
Sales Price: Normal distribution

Mean= 3.00
Standard deviation= 0.35
Correlation with unit sales= 0.40
Growth Rate: Normal distribution

Mean= 0%
Standard deviation= 15%
Correlation with unit sales= 0.40
Page 6
If you get an error box like this, then you have not correcly installed Simtools.xla.
nation of Simulation.doc."
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Cumulative
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0 for the equipment)
the equipment,
0 market value -
difference is called
s in a tax credit, so
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Running a Simulation
To run or re-run the simulation, you must first select the range for the simulation. To do this, click Edit
in the menu bar, then select Go To. In the resulting dialog box, select Sim1000 and click OK. This should
highlight and take you to the selected range where you will also find directions for the next step. This is
similar to a data table, with 1000 rows. The difference is that the table will have four input variables
(Sales Price, Variable Cost, Unit Sales, and Growth) and one output, NPV. The table will repeat the
calculation 1000 times, with new inputs each time, based on the random variables for the inputs.
Output of Simulation
Trial Variable
Number Index Sales Price Cost Unit Sales Growth NPV
SimTable 2.415403 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
1 0 2.930626 2.10772 20970.82 -0.084157 1053.777 While the table is still highlighted,
2 0.001001 3.388372 1.762423 21581.34 0.016062 38734.06 click Tools on the menu bar, then
3 0.002002 2.1964 1.910295 21451.84 0.03158 -15487.79 select the submenu SimTools. Then
4 0.003003 2.54181 2.108719 26658.35 0.037615 -5550.556 click on Simulation Table. See
5 0.004004 2.696082 2.102677 22143.79 0.106636 251.5039 picture to the right for details.
6 0.005005 2.870537 2.189647 19961.27 0.114949 1641.504
If you do this correctly, a new
7 0.006006 3.261762 2.234068 23423.86 0.222858 31539.32 simulation analysis will run. This
8 0.007007 2.708907 1.848597 26631.28 0.369295 40381.57 may take 10 or 15 seconds,
9 0.008008 2.744309 2.218471 18053.62 -0.183902 -13323.41 depending on your computer. All the
10 0.009009 2.718321 2.262482 15676.9 -0.433502 -19178 numbers in the Simulation Table will
11 0.01001 2.837629 1.815028 18462.72 0.090332 12161.75 change, reflecting the output of the
12 0.011011 2.933361 1.815343 21301.66 0.168826 27586.11 1000 new simulations.
13 0.012012 2.859318 1.811222 16971.82 -0.125474 801.6075
Click on the Tab Simulation
14 0.013013 3.549916 1.85427 19383.14 -0.029722 30940.1 Summary to see a summary of the
15 0.014014 3.04449 2.303989 22807.93 0.080573 6781.582 Simulation results.
16 0.015015 3.218808 1.961344 19384.7 0.083529 22935.83
17 0.016016 2.401065 2.020361 24054.82 0.170416 -6729.92
18 0.017017 3.161502 2.082369 17316.14 0.061524 10207.44
19 0.018018 2.40252 1.993057 18846.9 -0.263179 -16806.35
20 0.019019 3.322484 1.944297 25553.68 0.124607 48827.51
21 0.02002 3.153108 2.288474 21490.94 -0.020106 5722.444
22 0.021021 2.932266 2.034025 20384.29 0.034071 7942.24
23 0.022022 2.762838 1.770682 23953.19 0.03387 18386.07
24 0.023023 3.649863 2.165339 20271.03 -0.160351 17217.12
25 0.024024 3.267118 1.735898 19545.5 -0.128894 19199.83
26 0.025025 3.039732 1.908956 17836.19 -0.074951 6556.303
27 0.026026 2.911875 2.042648 24540.08 0.016621 12483.77
28 0.027027 3.902039 2.044562 18986.27 -0.088044 30334.26
29 0.028028 2.997901 1.885522 25349.97 0.083655 30405.69
30 0.029029 1.928753 1.805724 23989.61 0.231783 -20448.59
31 0.03003 3.106873 1.604612 18801.55 -0.096159 18713.75
32 0.031031 3.522543 2.17001 22925.03 -0.037011 26636.67
33 0.032032 2.732102 1.7078 22111.8 -0.007585 14080.71
34 0.033033 3.234659 2.065998 21592.13 -0.041084 16515.94
35 0.034034 3.034943 1.92274 21147.73 -0.005095 15697.97
36 0.035035 3.063466 1.81573 22195.85 0.032017 25893.09
37 0.036036 3.377418 1.879693 17695.82 -0.11022 15011.69
38 0.037037 2.75415 2.331406 24171.83 -0.095264 -11070.56
39 0.038038 2.702301 1.66953 24329.84 0.258778 37714.3
40 0.039039 3.06958 2.294706 21349.33 0.00689 3147.075
41 0.04004 2.151962 2.027591 25352.45 0.229895 -20369.73
42 0.041041 3.161641 2.208902 24857.39 0.101421 21949.95
43 0.042042 3.481223 2.248875 22212.84 0.055206 26539.76
44 0.043043 2.942033 2.063223 21203.02 0.017173 7688.454
45 0.044044 2.732288 2.178006 16162.66 -0.094245 -12383.16
46 0.045045 3.126817 1.709116 27094.9 0.164574 60476.6
47 0.046046 3.159273 2.265575 22119.02 -0.084978 4921.196
48 0.047047 2.61948 2.437835 27398.61 0.151545 -17488
49 0.048048 3.121172 1.757358 16352.19 -0.129801 7619.878
50 0.049049 2.742998 2.038626 17348.16 -0.105246 -7420.255
51 0.05005 3.492136 2.107625 24568.85 -0.168318 22205.66
52 0.051051 2.993181 1.553802 26549.06 0.263673 72443.2
53 0.052052 2.407728 1.943595 18000.4 0.0588 -10444.22
54 0.053053 2.971629 1.722263 24767.29 0.177584 44703.27
55 0.054054 2.4847 2.001849 18741.26 -0.160839 -13496.07
56 0.055055 2.950799 1.894972 16862.48 -0.252027 -3486.55
57 0.056056 3.119988 2.165931 18894.83 0.043034 7829.248
58 0.057057 3.195257 1.569743 23316.66 -0.01186 41423.16
59 0.058058 3.905642 1.800851 22532.31 -0.091613 49646.47
60 0.059059 2.534101 2.164182 17043.61 -0.115543 -16972.62
61 0.06006 3.006089 2.040457 26871.79 0.20223 34393.81
62 0.061061 3.19263 2.258394 19696.66 0.070181 9712.118
63 0.062062 2.692312 2.419567 24668.57 0.103145 -13997.46
64 0.063063 3.077885 2.391669 19474.22 -0.149722 -7152.808
65 0.064064 2.732847 1.979428 20360.33 0.016168 1593.488
66 0.065065 3.308044 2.205105 18400.96 -0.287038 -1686.917
67 0.066066 2.815336 1.742915 16373.66 -0.025979 4404.026
68 0.067067 2.337859 2.055761 27175.91 0.17575 -10420
69 0.068068 2.641593 2.046924 17968.55 -0.104663 -9885.651
70 0.069069 2.838683 2.378914 27264.63 0.297451 5120.686
71 0.07007 2.867105 2.227676 26615.79 0.050893 5471.34
72 0.071071 2.90397 1.542659 24346.29 0.088563 41465.65
73 0.072072 3.305535 1.612002 21003.34 -0.067269 32653.05
74 0.073073 3.115033 1.55421 21536.79 0.084799 42266.74
75 0.074074 2.91912 2.086161 19497.9 -0.110227 -1385.269
76 0.075075 3.012992 1.893012 20046.41 -0.106017 8681.87
77 0.076076 1.949279 1.693791 17731.2 -0.272168 -20727.5
78 0.077077 2.645181 1.942628 23559.24 0.074949 6127.188
79 0.078078 3.358277 2.263073 19475.3 -0.021806 10726.43
80 0.079079 2.866339 2.077885 19649.79 -0.059994 -895.669
81 0.08008 3.08165 1.600606 21231.85 -0.025507 28824.47
82 0.081081 3.3177 2.022109 21116.96 -0.16253 13120.96
83 0.082082 2.843439 2.105209 20068.54 0.064867 2350.349
84 0.083083 3.029198 2.242798 22749.75 0.170279 13380.9
85 0.084084 4.007073 1.777756 19550.72 -0.027633 50076.85
86 0.085085 2.913286 2.030201 23492.3 0.10344 16179.57
87 0.086086 2.545027 2.237113 22810.64 0.254856 -10130.25
88 0.087087 2.997034 1.530219 21251.82 -0.196379 16948.1
89 0.088088 3.139544 2.027461 24117.59 0.071911 26673.24
90 0.089089 2.483562 1.949396 28584.73 0.016748 891.178
91 0.09009 3.043477 1.517193 20400.29 0.108977 39374.29
92 0.091091 3.230094 1.742348 17340.85 -0.173356 10657.9
93 0.092092 2.979958 1.921369 19133.44 -0.090334 5922.892
94 0.093093 2.738426 2.006723 19915.55 -0.032208 -1506.398
95 0.094094 2.403867 2.168342 16358.97 -0.143597 -20947
96 0.095095 3.60999 2.297046 24911.56 0.072979 38350.45
97 0.096096 3.57294 2.122891 28892.81 0.214294 74240.46
98 0.097097 2.012281 1.710508 27028.27 0.139273 -9627.79
99 0.098098 3.394035 2.103657 27230.08 0.167447 52736.27
100 0.099099 3.073613 1.864051 24697.87 0.030883 29761.38
101 0.1001 3.014742 2.147892 26502.95 0.171453 24958.27
102 0.101101 2.610444 2.132004 21870.48 0.057054 -6765.062
103 0.102102 2.700615 2.337104 26824.99 0.298193 -2376.489
104 0.103103 2.596686 2.197157 17917.92 -0.102071 -15528.85
105 0.104104 2.963778 2.241898 19701.33 0.232211 7881.215
106 0.105105 3.111571 2.362548 21422.96 -0.001483 1845.152
107 0.106106 2.582338 2.230961 22347.57 0.109963 -11060.79
108 0.107107 3.286429 1.678448 17904.37 -0.271065 9810.038
109 0.108108 3.189701 1.989872 18352.22 -0.15515 5812.381
110 0.109109 3.378022 2.162178 26479.76 0.358441 66566.24
111 0.11011 3.068988 2.145058 18807.53 -0.192739 -2419.342
112 0.111111 3.123232 1.490416 21180.65 0.000568 36682.92
113 0.112112 3.484711 1.822788 17410.24 -0.179835 14767.3
114 0.113113 3.253002 2.101412 17901.7 -0.248107 137.1901
115 0.114114 3.146894 1.980908 19628.65 -0.182066 5819.621
116 0.115115 3.393564 1.629695 18215.19 -0.070943 26775.48
117 0.116116 3.354166 2.011112 21370.78 -0.049631 22016.6
118 0.117117 3.334232 1.769276 21176.49 0.031279 36386.18
119 0.118118 2.209164 2.073188 20128.46 0.015223 -22116.26
120 0.119119 3.364421 1.904036 21597.67 -0.11817 22157.8
121 0.12012 1.888467 2.363997 20142.39 -0.011684 -44699.7
122 0.121121 3.784367 2.051096 18854.78 -0.025019 30881.1
123 0.122122 2.701702 1.907532 22686.48 -0.069571 2899.097
124 0.123123 2.103691 1.826228 19975.6 0.037511 -16376.79
125 0.124124 3.25841 2.009293 18733.8 -0.058428 12650.37
126 0.125125 3.013032 2.200826 20655.02 -0.093464 -106.5514
127 0.126126 3.347782 2.055687 23522.22 0.221028 47274.75
128 0.127127 2.796013 2.358012 19066.2 -0.096807 -13724.68
129 0.128128 3.263624 1.753749 19704.02 -0.179918 15846.36
130 0.129129 3.232586 2.453366 22963.8 -0.007383 4765.313
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675 0.674675 2.435817 2.022385 25364.05 0.275586 -479.7561
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678 0.677678 2.575241 2.26419 17045.52 -0.162339 -19040.07
679 0.678679 3.190165 2.074888 21931.36 0.058069 21131.87
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681 0.680681 3.367308 1.967917 26826.57 0.177524 59646.55
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686 0.685686 2.952651 2.089365 21123.52 0.068714 9321.178
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689 0.688689 3.106353 2.134872 21132.28 -0.015228 9584.279
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692 0.691692 3.496565 1.678408 24920.51 0.169949 77285.36
693 0.692693 3.355909 1.896749 21491.99 0.1375 41999.23
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705 0.704705 3.39985 2.134588 25233.8 0.013574 31995.16
706 0.705706 3.218403 2.023082 26780.89 0.12142 41355.6
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709 0.708709 3.418047 1.86588 21472.3 0.126481 45322.07
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719 0.718719 2.680403 2.103305 23431.3 0.043545 -1258.054
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721 0.720721 3.430016 2.101059 24779.59 0.196126 50787.55
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723 0.722723 2.953414 2.202592 26818.39 -0.04714 6891.854
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725 0.724725 2.90464 2.166153 21482.61 0.114558 6385.603
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727 0.726727 2.941378 2.172531 22763.35 0.161274 12092.38
728 0.727728 3.275754 2.039965 26312.2 0.00351 32291.96
729 0.728729 3.391042 2.289219 21707.47 0.211687 30443.83
730 0.72973 2.943416 1.967868 19046.58 -0.082377 3511.36
731 0.730731 2.846063 1.57224 22191.7 -0.114277 17493.39
732 0.731732 3.300007 2.000314 22761.63 -0.116062 19100.5
733 0.732733 3.337333 1.994837 18561.13 -0.190826 8349.399
734 0.733734 2.824036 2.015674 25719.04 0.17897 20598.69
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739 0.738739 2.654956 1.962639 24949.52 0.116105 9377.661
740 0.73974 3.509253 1.840421 19076.18 0.017235 32833.02
741 0.740741 3.441163 2.304984 20016.83 -0.104102 8970.533
742 0.741742 2.577787 1.860807 21758.5 -0.037463 90.85514
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744 0.743744 3.205998 2.217565 23516.19 -0.014883 14222.98
745 0.744745 3.069045 1.814515 23651.7 -0.092586 20817.98
746 0.745746 3.043926 2.100412 19652.42 -0.049267 4686.977
747 0.746747 3.273265 1.735026 24693.83 0.150119 58004.53
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753 0.752753 2.886691 1.713298 18255.91 -0.094796 7784.598
754 0.753754 3.376081 1.694792 22347.32 -0.081301 34673.71
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761 0.760761 3.190233 2.434902 22490.2 -0.012878 2958.966
762 0.761762 3.016575 2.266358 24130.41 -0.013866 4930.726
763 0.762763 3.065921 1.782602 19587.14 -0.189669 8772.685
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765 0.764765 3.333103 1.799906 28198.95 0.292712 89443.1
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775 0.774775 2.644653 2.051255 25050.31 0.030578 798.2594
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777 0.776777 3.126319 2.314526 20319.56 0.062522 5425.732
778 0.777778 3.341091 2.109794 23103.11 0.031262 26950.68
779 0.778779 3.363632 2.202177 20651.21 0.075812 21320.23
780 0.77978 2.558592 2.213776 22502.82 -0.049646 -14099.19
781 0.780781 3.278982 2.303461 16321.2 -0.331186 -8097.986
782 0.781782 2.840667 1.876356 20592.15 0.097035 14339.67
783 0.782783 3.020532 2.219823 17340.49 -0.069723 -3828.132
784 0.783784 3.264789 1.966947 25865.08 0.033508 36874.71
785 0.784785 2.289041 2.200983 21452.75 0.310709 -23065.11
786 0.785786 3.543968 2.050147 20810.29 0.123774 40070.08
787 0.786787 3.251893 1.858401 20038.17 0.066829 29006.49
788 0.787788 3.315648 2.253927 22863.65 0.070243 21298.14
789 0.788789 2.865364 1.94938 24168.04 -0.026835 11792.81
790 0.78979 2.915317 2.29756 21148.47 0.029148 -2584.183
791 0.790791 2.884507 2.303319 24202.22 0.262653 8238.269
792 0.791792 2.947635 2.329463 17238.62 -0.135535 -10698.53
793 0.792793 3.679785 2.134368 19471.99 0.005952 28460.37
794 0.793794 3.395053 1.909981 20701.19 -0.084807 23183.65
795 0.794795 2.637302 1.897826 18638.9 -0.10325 -4883.978
796 0.795796 2.76217 2.144021 23750.72 0.159556 5497.749
797 0.796797 2.957186 2.203716 24980.3 0.207149 17432.88
798 0.797798 3.032306 2.096207 20476.15 -0.045777 5853.677
799 0.798799 2.978636 2.238729 21871.74 0.086526 5738.23
800 0.7998 2.955625 2.136677 24981.81 -0.129409 4042.657
801 0.800801 2.087113 1.868577 22798.87 -0.045186 -18560.23
802 0.801802 3.795413 2.29051 22780.84 -0.011457 34350.27
803 0.802803 3.178622 1.542972 26712.73 -0.031554 49624
804 0.803804 2.797379 2.168841 20627.9 -0.115431 -6810.343
805 0.804805 2.949474 1.653526 16102.72 -0.219934 1812.676
806 0.805806 3.302612 1.619593 19333.96 -0.038025 29886.05
807 0.806807 3.128326 2.073788 22724.63 0.084935 21797.19
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810 0.80981 2.89015 2.159647 22283.24 -0.138538 -2498.631
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812 0.811812 2.958647 1.894002 24512.25 -0.047341 17570.38
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816 0.815816 3.014924 2.144139 22439.34 0.159376 16710.74
817 0.816817 3.168444 2.152098 22607.01 0.068231 18669.86
818 0.817818 2.954455 2.462309 21369.55 -0.035139 -9144.111
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820 0.81982 3.467411 1.943572 24655.3 0.04169 45479.62
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822 0.821822 2.616378 1.902018 22678.06 0.068323 5239.739
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824 0.823824 3.25265 1.894624 22721.61 0.18649 45327.55
825 0.824825 3.101353 1.952979 20250.36 -0.039684 13340.22
826 0.825826 3.11329 2.095062 17441.27 -0.158501 -606.1485
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828 0.827828 2.458106 1.820589 20712.03 0.009454 -2530.272
829 0.828829 2.942694 1.702655 21617.31 -0.078532 17226.17
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831 0.830831 2.593829 2.000241 21706.78 -0.238691 -9855
832 0.831832 2.855777 1.995129 22206.39 0.013386 8387.646
833 0.832833 2.910697 2.185413 19505.53 -0.215551 -7600.262
834 0.833834 3.112568 2.181853 28637.28 0.140529 30818.09
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839 0.838839 2.715742 2.104988 20989.26 -0.194362 -8962.943
840 0.83984 3.514886 1.953465 19190.73 -0.191454 15401.21
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842 0.841842 3.340934 2.435958 22927.09 -0.061204 7405.442
843 0.842843 3.108666 2.141667 18942.56 -0.227056 -2251.554
844 0.843844 3.56976 2.275664 26178.3 0.23777 57177.89
845 0.844845 2.979541 2.157412 21714.48 0.133732 11599.86
846 0.845846 2.951834 2.217005 22727.57 -0.232957 -4853.781
847 0.846847 3.321537 1.812569 18905.78 -0.239259 10954.11
848 0.847848 3.044058 2.366236 25012.5 0.168945 10760.29
849 0.848849 3.230435 2.082933 26114.48 0.223594 46157.23
850 0.84985 3.101621 1.976007 27617.66 0.148218 41741.5
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852 0.851852 2.535574 1.839464 21188.84 0.009488 296.3475
853 0.852853 2.488818 1.923257 20354.67 -0.025128 -6662.762
854 0.853854 2.847788 1.580387 19239.11 -0.182148 8194.398
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864 0.863864 2.673329 1.528929 19115.57 0.071362 17434.74
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867 0.866867 3.071926 1.887465 28098.91 0.231544 55331.92
868 0.867868 3.334272 1.834944 17293.2 -0.18563 10181.16
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880 0.87988 3.253179 1.869501 23359.13 0.015524 33279.67
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903 0.902903 2.923677 2.239931 21800.59 0.008966 194.3142
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905 0.904905 3.126513 1.831219 26372.45 0.135063 47620.14
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907 0.906907 2.924195 2.23466 23691.33 -0.011047 1921.236
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909 0.908909 2.708165 2.035114 15949.24 -0.243087 -12471.85
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925 0.924925 3.0239 2.007434 19994.38 -0.040724 8178.906
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928 0.927928 2.514826 1.839501 25951.5 0.248034 16901.23
929 0.928929 2.507301 2.1984 25874.89 0.259645 -7813.196
930 0.92993 3.520568 1.583293 23489.4 0.13597 73300.01
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932 0.931932 3.321366 1.884284 21780.5 0.011874 31178.41
933 0.932933 2.934171 2.137915 25800.3 0.085464 14432.8
934 0.933934 2.565487 1.702278 22413.71 -0.021364 7433.368
935 0.934935 3.169858 1.783242 21611.17 0.122767 37729.35
936 0.935936 3.036014 1.652251 24376.29 0.168535 50404.15
937 0.936937 2.767773 1.741725 22597.28 -0.064045 11932.83
938 0.937938 3.089596 2.256067 17289.49 -0.241305 -7792.206
939 0.938939 2.480969 2.224605 20327 0.024869 -17505.13
940 0.93994 3.081842 1.880026 18588.65 -0.198918 4440.134
941 0.940941 3.024652 2.074398 18230.19 -0.099937 787.2083
942 0.941942 2.805998 1.986873 18221.63 0.200226 8565.794
943 0.942943 3.493119 1.844366 23750.32 -0.025542 42129.21
944 0.943944 2.610423 1.707685 23112.3 -0.164567 3627.845
945 0.944945 2.721809 2.209442 25024.24 0.206556 2792.074
946 0.945946 2.406566 2.06945 20037.62 -0.000557 -14814.82
947 0.946947 2.352938 1.569611 18173.55 -0.020229 -1285.716
948 0.947948 3.038298 2.301133 21161.54 -0.120361 -2975.503
949 0.948949 2.67941 2.06979 18236.87 -0.162539 -10504.27
950 0.94995 3.239976 1.974777 26398.04 0.309424 64499.41
951 0.950951 2.431987 2.105014 26381.75 0.346018 -3736.724
952 0.951952 2.872233 2.302149 21123.45 0.007124 -5171.414
953 0.952953 2.973704 2.072819 15737.69 -0.238264 -7852.372
954 0.953954 3.324433 2.090091 19379.55 -0.05745 13485.06
955 0.954955 2.793926 1.724408 21434.23 0.269247 32972.1
956 0.955956 3.301228 2.010913 20497.24 -0.048528 18283.77
957 0.956957 3.091983 2.30241 24318.28 0.026198 8710.842
958 0.957958 2.979249 2.113395 17911.83 0.071712 4201.676
959 0.958959 3.234604 2.056148 20700.27 -0.109484 11430.03
960 0.95996 2.61179 2.253677 26506.49 0.127593 -7561.892
961 0.960961 3.977278 1.621114 24522.76 0.010321 80396.45
962 0.961962 3.426104 2.024473 17098.55 -0.284912 3065.619
963 0.962963 3.092822 1.532604 21224.9 -0.263924 15596.66
964 0.963964 2.718945 2.160938 18776.95 -0.116111 -10580.53
965 0.964965 3.177738 1.859134 26659.72 0.232609 60339
966 0.965966 3.59132 1.607699 20719.34 0.131856 63233.61
967 0.966967 3.354632 2.158127 21061.28 0.103478 25702.15
968 0.967968 3.008038 1.87821 28462.85 0.25284 54730.1
969 0.968969 3.230616 2.12304 21290.53 -0.149737 8113.415
970 0.96997 3.316654 1.615474 20477.98 -0.231395 19777.83
971 0.970971 3.420204 2.275384 17685.92 -0.113662 4790.362
972 0.971972 3.071116 1.812471 18613.02 -0.101494 10590.87
973 0.972973 3.200844 1.927555 28615.54 0.021647 41116.11
974 0.973974 2.742004 2.015141 21467.24 -0.072899 -1234.583
975 0.974975 1.905223 1.750534 20646.43 0.238957 -19411.11
976 0.975976 3.310827 2.249189 17917.51 -0.248589 -2020.071
977 0.976977 2.547617 1.825546 26523.94 0.093973 12283.34
978 0.977978 2.987523 2.040292 19249.15 -0.01297 5770.621
979 0.978979 3.162368 1.622449 20152.99 0.067258 35488.62
980 0.97998 2.696492 1.762828 19513.82 -0.068484 3582.399
981 0.980981 2.878276 2.325041 27782.86 0.017778 779.1188
982 0.981982 2.904625 1.628087 23888.05 0.070394 34404.73
983 0.982983 3.061096 1.70749 18375.9 -0.07499 14425.46
984 0.983984 2.543357 1.777 15714.69 -0.195056 -9600.765
985 0.984985 2.597364 1.502284 22759.86 -0.026791 17188.37
986 0.985986 3.225314 2.173341 21164.3 0.104836 19551.54
987 0.986987 2.718528 1.61066 19119.31 -0.246726 1105.109
988 0.987988 2.858228 2.28389 24037.24 -0.029428 -3300.908
989 0.988989 2.980157 1.542165 28924.49 0.016016 50679.31
990 0.98999 2.737467 2.140939 21793.9 0.110108 72.256
991 0.990991 2.874043 2.103074 22514.29 0.133739 10487.84
992 0.991992 3.357619 2.054862 26565.38 0.037604 39091.25
993 0.992993 3.491894 1.819461 20035.99 -0.031954 31873.75
994 0.993994 2.505816 1.546315 19433.49 -0.246055 -2153.406
995 0.994995 2.734375 2.281299 22482.6 -0.176559 -12531
996 0.995996 2.904197 2.081807 19804.91 0.085256 6224.696
997 0.996997 2.472701 2.022323 25425.42 0.152896 -2113.977
998 0.997998 2.860773 1.48941 18607.49 -0.150853 11473.22
999 0.998999 2.7959 1.884496 18610.59 -0.056988 1897.835
1000 1 2.765693 1.666928 28388.83 0.172859 44614.4
s still highlighted,
e menu bar, then
nu SimTools. Then
on Table. See
ht for details.
rectly, a new
sis will run. This
5 seconds,
ur computer. All the
imulation Table will
g the output of the
tions.
Simulation
a summary of the
s.
Analyzing the Output of a Simulation
You don't need to change anything in this section. It will be updated automatically if you do a
simulation. The summary of the simulation results is based on the simulation output, and is updated
automatically when you do a simulation.
Part 1: Summary of Simulation Results

Variable Sales
Sales Price Cost Unit Sales Growth NPV
Mean $3.00 $2.00 21,696 $0.00 $13,651
Standard deviation $0.35 $0.23 3,088 $0.15 $22,009
Maximum $4.31 $2.48 29,732 $0.48 $129,434
Minimum $1.72 $1.42 15,161 -$0.46 -$54,703
Correlation with Unit Sales 63.4%
Median $10,743
Probability of NPV > 0 71.9%
Coefficient of Variation 1.61
Part 2: Histogram
You don't need to change anything in this section. The chart below shows the frequency with which the
NPV fell in the specified ranges. This approximates the probability that the NPV will fall in these same
ranges in the future.
Number
greater Probabili ty
than Prob. of
Bottom of bottom of Top of NPV in
range range range Interval
-Infinity 1000 -$70,000 0
-$70,000 1000 -$60,000 0.0%
-$60,000 1000 -$50,000 0.1%
-$50,000 999 -$40,000 0.2%
-$40,000 997 -$30,000 0.1%
-$30,000 996 -$20,000 1.8%
-$20,000 978 -$10,000 9.4%
-$10,000 884 $0 16.5%
$0 719 $10,000 20.3%
$10,000 516 $20,000 18.4%
$20,000 332 $30,000 12.9%
$30,000 203 $40,000 8.8% NPV ($)
$40,000 115 $50,000 5.2%
$50,000 63 $60,000 2.8%
$60,000 35 $70,000 1.4%
$70,000 21 $80,000 1.2%
$80,000 9 $90,000 0.4%
$90,000 5 $100,000 0.3%
$100,000 2 $110,000 0.1%
$110,000 1 $120,000 0.0%
$120,000 1 $130,000 0.1%
$130,000 0 $140,000 0.0%
$140,000 0 $150,000 0.0%
$150,000 0 $160,000 0.0%
$160,000 0 $170,000 0.0%
$170,000 0 $180,000 0.0%
$180,000 0 $190,000 0.0%
$190,000 0 $200,000 0.0%
$200,000 0 $210,000 0.0%
$210,000 0 $220,000 0.0%
$220,000 0 +Infinity
Sum 100%
NPV ($)

CH 14 Simulation

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CH 14 Simulation

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xls Simulation Inputs

Chapter 14. Tool Kit for Monte Carlo Simulation

Step 1: Load Simtools.xla

Step 2: Decide on distributions for risky variables

Sales Price: Normal distribution

Variable costs: Triangular distribution

Unit sales: Triangular distribution

Growth Rate: Normal distribution

Step 3: Replace model input values with risky variables

Input Function Resulting Random Variable

Original New, based on current simulation

NPV = $5,809 Err:511

Step 4: Run the Simulation and Analyze the Results

Model for Evaluating A New Capital Budgeting Project:

Table 14-3. Analysis of a New (Expansion) Project

Part 1. Input Data (in thousands of dollars)

Part 2. Depreciation Schedule a Years Cumulative

Equipment Depr'n Rate 20.0% 32.0% 19.0% 12.0%

Part 3 of Table 14-3. Net Salvage Values in 2006

Part 4 of Table 14-3. Projected Net Cas Years

Operating Cash Flows over the Project's Life

Operating cash flow Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511

Cash Flows Due to Net Operating Working Capital

Salvage Cash Flows: Long-Term Assets

Net Present Value (at 12%) Err:511

Sales Price: Normal distribution

Growth Rate: Normal distribution

0 for the equipment)

Part 1: Summary of Simulation Results

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