Global Warming and Climate Change

The climate is changing. The earth is warming up, and there is now overwhelming scientific
consensus that it is happening, and human-induced. With global warming on the increase and
species and their habitats on the decrease, chances for ecosystems to adapt naturally are
diminishing.

Many are agreed that climate change may be one of the greatest threats facing the planet.
Recent years show increasing temperatures in various regions, and/or increasing extremities
in weather patterns.

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have
shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted
and trees are flowering sooner.

Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are
now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves.

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to
come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United
States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over
the next century.

According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will vary
over time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to mitigate or
adapt to change.

The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4 degrees
Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will produce beneficial impacts in
some regions and harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will increase over time as global
temperatures increase.

What is Global Warming and Climate Change?

Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures.
Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average
global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increases in greenhouse gases such as
Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

A warming planet thus leads to a change in climate which can affect weather in various ways,
as discussed further below.
 What are the main indicators of Climate Change?

As explained by the US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA), there are 7 indicators that would be expected to increase in a warming world (and
they are), and 3 indicators would be expected to decrease (and they are):

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

The term greenhouse is used in conjunction with the phenomenon known as the greenhouse
effect.

Energy from the sun drives the earths weather and climate, and heats the earths
surface;

In turn, the earth radiates energy back into space;

Some atmospheric gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases) trap some of
the outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse;

These gases are therefore known as greenhouse gases;

The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature on Earth as certain gases in the
atmosphere trap energy.
Image source: Greenhouse Effect, Wikipedia(Link includes detailed explanation of the above
image). Note, image above expresses energy exchanges in watts per square meter (W/m2)

Six main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) (which is 20 times as
potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plus three fluorinated
industrial gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6). Water vapor is also considered a greenhouse gas.

The Greenhouse effect is natural. What do we have to do with it?

Many of these greenhouse gases are actually life-enabling, for without them, heat would
escape back into space and the Earths average temperature would be a lot colder.

However, if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, then more heat gets trapped than needed,
and the Earth might become less habitable for humans, plants and animals.

Carbon dioxide, though not the most potent of greenhouse gases, is the most significant one.
Human activity has caused an imbalance in the natural cycle of the greenhouse effect and
related processes. NASAs Earth Observatory is worth quoting the effect human activity is
having on the natural carbon cycle, for example:

In addition to the natural fluxes of carbon through the Earth system, anthropogenic (human)
activities, particularly fossil fuel burning and deforestation, are also releasing carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere.

When we mine coal and extract oil from the Earths crust, and then burn these fossil fuels for
transportation, heating, cooking, electricity, and manufacturing, we are effectively moving
carbon more rapidly into the atmosphere than is being removed naturally through the
sedimentation of carbon, ultimately causing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to
increase.

Also, by clearing forests to support agriculture, we are transferring carbon from living
biomass into the atmosphere (dry wood is about 50 percent carbon).
The result is that humans are adding ever-increasing amounts of extra carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere. Because of this, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are higher today
than they have been over the last half-million years or longer.

The Carbon Cycle; The Human Role, Earth Observatory, NASA

Another way of looking at this is with a simple analogy: consider salt and human health:

A small amount of salt is essential for human life;

Slightly more salt in our diet often makes food tastier;

Too much salt can be harmful to our health.

In a similar way, greenhouse gases are essential for our planet; the planet may be able to deal
with slightly increased levels of such gases, but too much will affect the health of the whole
planet.

Image source: NASA.(Note, values shown represent Carbon Gigatons being absorbed and
released)

The other difference between the natural carbon cycle and human-induced climate change is
that the latter is rapid. This means that ecosystems have less chance of adapting to the
changes that will result and so the effects felt will be worse and more dramatic it things
continue along the current trajectory.

"Taken as a whole," the IPCC states, "the range of published evidence indicates that the net
damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time."