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Conclusions
Except for short periods of relief, the last few months have been painful. After extensive deliberation on
the question of equity market
direction, I continue to be
outright bullish. The core causes
of the recent selloff are longer
Bearish Bullish
term in nature and I believe the
climax of hand‐wringing is behind
us. Accordingly, I believe the
bottom for this correction has
been made and the focus of the
market will shift back to data on
the cyclical recovery. And the
most likely scenario is that the
cyclical data will resume its
previous strength as investors
realize that final demand trends
and corporate balance sheets are
healthy. The scale to the right
outlines the core bullish and
bearish argument.
At the top of my list of bullish
arguments is that cash yields zero and, perhaps more importantly, it will continue to yield zero for a
long, long time. At the risk of over simplification, consider the following question: What better time to
buy risky assets than when asset reflation is paramount to recovery and the central bank is intent upon
encouraging risky behavior?
Encouraging risk seeking
In order to avoid a In order for asset behavior is best done by
depression‐like reflation to resume, maintaining exceptionally low
scenario, asset risk seeking behavior levels of the federal funds rate
for an extended –extended –
reflation must resume must be encouraged extended period
And consider that in 2009 net new purchases of bond funds reached an unprecedented $350 billion, 16
times the amount invested in bond funds in 2008. In contrast, net cash flows into stock funds totaled
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under $14 billion. So what happens as those bonds mature and as cash and money markets continue to
yield a big donut? Do investors step out on the curve for a bit of yield? Not in any meaningful way. Do
they move into corporates? If that hackneyed term, bubble, should be applied anywhere corporate
bonds are the most deserving. As investors are essentially forced to take on risk, I believe the most
likely scenario is that flows accelerate into that detested and cursed asset class we call equities. Take on
risk now willingly or be forced to buy in later at higher levels. It is time to focus on upside and the
reward, rather than the penalty, for assuming equity risk.
As always, we must consider the question: what if we are wrong? This view is most likely wrong under
1,050 on the S&P, at which point I advocate doing something defensive in the portfolios. Specifically,
raising cash levels 2‐3% and reallocating one position toward defensives. Nonetheless, as I hope to have
made clear, I like the risk reward at these levels.
Why the Equity Selloff?
The best answer to the above question appears to be that Long term uncertainties are being expressed
in current pricing. In other words, the market has shifted focus from shorter term cyclical data to longer
term structural economic problems. At first glance that statement may not appear too profound, yet it
has frightening implications given that fiscal balance sheets in Developed Markets (DM) are a bloody
mess. Obviously, markets are forward looking, but the time horizon usually extends out two or three
years. The market is now looking out beyond this horizon and seeing a world of incredible uncertainty.
The idea is best expressed by the economists at JP Morgan who build the following logical sequence in
trying to pinpoint ‘what went wrong’ and why risk assets have sold off:
•we can’t blame forecasts or company earnings
for the recent decline because they have
surprised on the upside during H2 as well as
2010 and 2011 earnings
•But markets don’t only price in forecasted
cash flows, they also price in risks around
forecasts
•the best measure of this in the near term (next
12 months) is the dispersion of US earnings
forecasts. But that has actually been falling
(see chart to the right)
•That leaves us with two possibilities: 1) there
is a temporary mispricing of risky assets or, 2)
there is higher longer‐term uncertainty
Although tempting, one cannot simply assume the first conclusion is true, that the market is mispricing
risk. Meaningful price moves must be respected. This leaves us with the original thesis that the market
is looking toward the longer term. As additional evidence to the theory, they cite a record wide gap
between short‐ and long‐term implied equity volatility. With this shift in focus, the market is collectively
asking all sorts of pesky little questions like how are DM governments going to stop and reverse the rise
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in their debt and what happens to growth if we all tighten fiscal policy at the same time (Is there a
country not talking about fiscal tightening?) and how in the world do we bring down structural
unemployment. It’s all about the long term right now and data and news on that front need to be the
focus. Sustainable growth is the key, which will be signaled by private sector response to ultra loose
monetary policy. Lastly, while this is perhaps obvious to most at this point, we must recognize that it is
not about Greece per se, but that their problems are our problems and likewise, their solutions (or lack
thereof) will be reflected in our markets.
The Positives
Here is the quick hit list of positives:
• Monetary Policy
o In two short months all
pressure to tighten monetary
policy has vanished.
o Central Bank Policy has
shown a willingness to stay
loose and encourage risk‐
taking behavior (diagram to
the right – Source:
Bloomberg)
• History tells us that the resiliency of the economy in a recovery usually wins these battles. A double‐
dip recession is an extremely rare event.
• Euro Banks have not broken down, in fact they have rallied off support (Figure 1 below)
• Risk premium is a at a historical high and any moderation here would be positive (Figure 2 below)
Figure 1 – European Bank Index (BEBANKS Index) Figure 2 – Risk Premium for US Equities
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• Valuations are attractive (Figures 3 & 4 below)
Figure 3
Figure 4
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• Fading regulatory concerns (Global bank levy did not come to pass at the g20 summit)
• No European apocalypse – while ugly in the periphery the core is still strong and getting better.
Economic Data out of Germany has been on a tear
• Realization that this dip in the financial markets is not going to feed into the economy
• Bottom‐up sell side analysts are not seeing slowdown in pipelines and channel checks (e.g. Rich
Gardner)
• Sentiment levels at or close to panic (Figures 5 & 6)
Figure 5 – Bulls minus Bears (AAII Survey)
Figure 6 – Panic Euphoria Model
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