E370

Week 05
Part 1:
Expected Values of Discrete
Random Variables
Discrete variables
can assume only a countable number of different
values
gaps between values along the number line
It is possible to list all X values and the associated
P(X) in Probability Distributions
Random variables
Actual outcomes are determined by chance.
Notation:
X outcome
P(X) probability of an outcome

Discrete Random Variables

 This is a frequency
distribution: Number of
drinks consumed per occasion
by E370 students who
classified themselves as Light
Drinkers
This is also a probability
distribution for a random
variable: Number of drinks
consumed per occasion by
E370 students who classified
themselves as Light Drinkers

X fi / fi = fi/n X P(X)
0 0.56 0 0.56
1 0.13 1 0.13
2 0.07 2 0.07
3 0.07 3 0.07
4 0.04 4 0.04
5 0.13 5 0.13
 Whatis the expected number of drinks
consumed per occasion by light-drinking E370
students? = ( )
X P(X) Products Sum
0 0.56 =0*0.56 = 0 0
1 0.13 =1*0.13 = 0.13 +0.13
2 0.07 =2*0.07 = 0.14 +0.14
3 0.07 =3*0.07 = 0.21 +0.21
4 0.04 =4*0.04 = 0.16 +0.16
5 0.13 =5*0.13 = 0.65 +0.65 = 1.29

Expected Values
 Whatis the expected number of drinks
consumed per occasion by light-drinking E370
students? = ( )
X P(X) Products Sum
0 0.56 =0*0.56 = 0 0
1 0.13 =1*0.13 = 0.13 +0.13
2 0.07 =2*0.07 = 0.14 +0.14
3 0.07 =3*0.07 = 0.21 +0.21
4 0.04 =4*0.04 = 0.16 +0.16
5 0.13 =5*0.13 = 0.65 +0.65 = 1.29

Expected Values
 Whatis the expected number of drinks
consumed per occasion by light-drinking E370
students? = ( )
X P(X) Products Sum
0 0.56 =0*0.56 = 0 0
1 0.13 =1*0.13 = 0.13 +0.13
2 0.07 =2*0.07 = 0.14 +0.14
3 0.07 =3*0.07 = 0.21 +0.21
4 0.04 =4*0.04 = 0.16 +0.16
5 0.13 =5*0.13 = 0.65 +0.65 = 1.29

Expected Values
 What is the expected variance of the number of
drinks consumed per occasion by light-drinking
E370 students? = () ( )
X P(X) (X-E(X)) (X-E(X))2 (X-E(X))2*P(X)
0 0.56 (0-1.29) (0-1.29)2 (0-1.29)2*0.56 0.931896
1 0.13 (1-1.29) (1-1.29)2 (1-1.29)2*0.13 + 0.010933
2 0.07 (2-1.29) (2-1.29)2 (2-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.035287
3 0.07 (3-1.29) (3-1.29)2 (3-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.204687
4 0.04 (4-1.29) (4-1.29)2 (4-1.29)2*0.04 + 0.293764
+ 1.789333
5 0.13 (5-1.29) (5-1.29)2 (5-1.29)2*0.13
= 3.27

More Expected Values

 What is the expected variance of the number of
drinks consumed per occasion by light-drinking
E370 students? = () ( )
X P(X) (X-E(X)) (X-E(X))2 (X-E(X))2*P(X)
0 0.56 (0-1.29) (0-1.29)2 (0-1.29)2*0.56 0.931896
1 0.13 (1-1.29) (1-1.29)2 (1-1.29)2*0.13 + 0.010933
2 0.07 (2-1.29) (2-1.29)2 (2-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.035287
3 0.07 (3-1.29) (3-1.29)2 (3-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.204687
4 0.04 (4-1.29) (4-1.29)2 (4-1.29)2*0.04 + 0.293764
+ 1.789333
5 0.13 (5-1.29) (5-1.29)2 (5-1.29)2*0.13
= 3.27

More Expected Values

 What is the expected variance of the number of
drinks consumed per occasion by light-drinking
E370 students? = () ( )
X P(X) (X-E(X)) (X-E(X))2 (X-E(X))2*P(X)
0 0.56 (0-1.29) (0-1.29)2 (0-1.29)2*0.56 0.931896
1 0.13 (1-1.29) (1-1.29)2 (1-1.29)2*0.13 + 0.010933
2 0.07 (2-1.29) (2-1.29)2 (2-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.035287
3 0.07 (3-1.29) (3-1.29)2 (3-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.204687
4 0.04 (4-1.29) (4-1.29)2 (4-1.29)2*0.04 + 0.293764
+ 1.789333
5 0.13 (5-1.29) (5-1.29)2 (5-1.29)2*0.13
= 3.27

More Expected Values

 What is the expected variance of the number of
drinks consumed per occasion by light-drinking
E370 students? = () ( )
X P(X) (X-E(X)) (X-E(X))2 (X-E(X))2*P(X)
0 0.56 (0-1.29) (0-1.29)2 (0-1.29)2*0.56 0.931896
1 0.13 (1-1.29) (1-1.29)2 (1-1.29)2*0.13 + 0.010933
2 0.07 (2-1.29) (2-1.29)2 (2-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.035287
3 0.07 (3-1.29) (3-1.29)2 (3-1.29)2*0.07 + 0.204687
4 0.04 (4-1.29) (4-1.29)2 (4-1.29)2*0.04 + 0.293764
+ 1.789333
5 0.13 (5-1.29) (5-1.29)2 (5-1.29)2*0.13
= 3.27

More Expected Values

 Expected Variance = 3.27drinks2
Standard Deviation = SQRT(3.27) = 1.81 drinks
Is that a lot of variability or a little?
Tointerpret a statistic, we need context.
The range of the variable is 5.
The expected value is 1.29.
Two standard deviations above the mean takes us
almost to 5.
We cant go two standard deviations below the mean
because we run into 0 and we cant have negative
drinks.

Some meaning please!

 = ( )

= () ( )

Summary of Expected Value

Formulas For Discrete Data