Relationship Between Culture, Nature, Infrastructure and Tourism Demand in European Regions

Culture,
Nature and Sustainable Tourism Development:

a space-(me analysis on European regions
Joo Romo University of Algarve

Towards opera9onalising UNESCO Recommenda9ons on Historic Urban Landscape
Naples, March 23, 2015
Joo Romo Culture, Nature and Sustainable Tourism Development: a space-9me analysis on European regions
Abstract
Despite the close rela9on between tourism and the territory, the applica9on of spa9al analysis
methods in tourism is not abundant in the literature.

The recent developments in the analysis of space-?me models, the existence of geo-referenced
informa9on and the availability of suitable soQware tools create new opportuni9es for studying
the role of space in tourism ac9vi9es.

An exploratory spa9al data analysis is developed and a space-9me panel model is computed
in this work in order to analyse the rela9ons between tourism demand and the existence of
infrastructures, cultural assets and natural resources in European regions,

Spa?al eects have been clearly iden?ed.
New Tools for Planning Sustainable, Safe, Resilient and Sustainable Ci9es Naples March 2015
1. Introduc?on
Tourism is a place oriented ac?vity, where territories interact with each others.

Natural resources and cultural heritage are essen9al for the sustainable development of tourism.

The crea9on of a dieren?ated experience in each tourism des9na9on depends on the ability to
integrate these local and specic assets into the tourism supply: unique experiences can only be
created if they are based on the local characteris9cs of the territory, once they are not possible to
imitate in other places.

This exploita9on of local resources raises the ques9on of the poten9al nega9ve impacts on the
territories and establishes a link between the concepts of compe??veness - the ability to
compete in global markets for the aUrac9on of tourists - and sustainability - the ability to
preserve local resources in the long run.

Environmental paradox: the produc9on of tourism experiences depends on the exploita9on of
local natural resources and, in the long run, it also depends on its preserva9on. The same can be
applied to cultural heritage.

In the last years, most of the interna9onal tourism related organiza9ons (including UNESCO)
have proposed orienta9ons for a sustainable process tourism development.
Introduc?on
Analysis of the importance of cultural and natural resources for regional tourism demand.

Test and evalua9on of spa?al eects among the regions.

Presenta9on of overall data (252 NUTS 2 European regions; 2003-2012).

Exploratory spa?al data analysis (237 NUTS2 European regions).

Space-?me panel model.

All the NUTS 2 regions from Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta,
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and United Kingdom.
Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Tourism demand - Nights spent at tourist accommoda9on establishments in 2012 (millions)
Importance of South European regions (West Mediterranean)

Tourism demand - Nights spent at tourist accommoda9on establishments (growth between 2003 and 2012)
Importance of Eastern European regions (West Mediterranean)

Tourism demand - Nights spent at tourist accommoda9on establishments (growth between 2003 and 2012)
Importance of urban areas (Paris, Barcelona, London, Berlin)


Regional cultural assets - number of sites classied as World Heritage by UNESCO
Importance of South European regions (West Mediterranean)

Regional natural resources - percentage of the territory in Natura 2000
Importance of South European regions

Regional natural resources and cultural assets
Importance of South European areas

Panel regression without spa?al eects
logNIT it = 0 + 1 logBEDS it + 2 HERIT it + 3 NAT it + uit
Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance

Intercept 10.1960 0.2089 48.8098 < 2.2e-16 0.001
LogBeds 0.4553 0.0190 24.0049 < 2.2e-16 0.001
NAT 0.0034 0.0010 3.4350 0.0006 0.001

HERIT 0.1063 0.0108 9.8615 < 2.2e-16 0.001
Posi?ve rela?on between tourism demand and all the independent variables.
Despite de very high signicance of all the parameters es9mated,

the rela9vely low score obtained for the R-Squared (0.26)
suggests that the es9ma9ons can be improved introducing spa?al eects.
Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis
Moran I tests for spa?al autocorrela?on

1st and last years of observa9ons for each variable
The results obtained reveal the existence of spa?al correla?on in all the variables
(z-scores above the threshold of 1.96, for 5% signicance level.
Local Indicators of Spa?al Autocorrela?on

cluster distribu9on based on the local G sta9s9cs
Tourism demand
(nights spent in accommoda9on establishments in 2012)
Cluster of high values (red)

in Southwest European regions
Cluster of low values (blue)

in Eastern European regions

Cultural resources
(cultural sites classied by UNESCO in 2012)

in Southwest European regions
Clusters of low values (blue)

in Central / Northern European regions

Natural resources
(percentage of the territory in Natura 2000 in 2011)

in Southern European regions
Clusters of low values (blue)

in Northern European regions

Bivariate analysis rela9ng tourism demand
with each of the independent variables
Tourism demand and

cultural heritage
Clusters of high values for both (red)

in South Western European regions
Clusters of high values for cultural assets

and low tourism demand (pink)
Irregular spa?al paUerns.

Bivariate analysis rela9ng tourism demand
with each of the independent variables
Tourism demand and

natural resources
Clusters of high values for both (red)

in South Western European regions
Clusters of high values for natural assets

and low tourism demand (pink)
High number of spa?al outliers

(high value for one variable
and low for the other)
Panel regression with spa?al eects
logNIT it = WYit + 0 + 1 logBEDS it + 2 HERIT it + 3 NAT it + uit

uit = Wuit + it

W is a weights-matrix, dening the impacts of each region on its neighbors;
(neighborhood dened by con9guity, level 2);

is the spa9al autoregressive coecient (spa9al eects on the dependent variable)

is the spa9al autocorrela9on coecient (spa9al eects on the error term)

AVer specifying the necessary tests, a model with both types of spa?al eects has been computed.
Panel regression without spa?al eects
Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance

Intercept 14.7480 0.2738 53.8551 < 2.2e-16 0.001
LogBeds 0.3996 0.0229 17.4585 < 2.2e-16 0.001
NAT 0.0002 0.0012 0.1783 0.86

HERIT 0.0781 0.0110 7.0969 1.3e-12 0.001
Spatial auto-regressive coefficient -0.2478 0.0260 -3.2941 0.0009 0.001

Error variance (spatial) 0.6535 0.0386 16.947 < 2.2e-16 0.001
Error variance (non spatial) 16.4451 1.9384 8.484 < 2.2e-16 0.001
!
Posi?ve rela?on between tourism demand and all the independent variables,
but not signicant for natural resources.
Posi9ve overall spa?al eects (error variance + spa9al auto-regressive coecient)
Discussion
Conrma?on of the poten?al of spa?al analysis for tourism studies.

Although this kind of methodology has few applica9ons in the eld of tourism,
the results show the existence of spa9al paUerns in tourism demand and its determinants.

The overall data presented in the beginning of this work revealed that
tourism in South European regions where natural resources play a decisive role
is s?ll very important in the European context.

Nevertheless, this informa9on also showed that urban tourism (at least in some major ci9es)
and the Eastern side of Europe have registered higher growth rates along the last decade,
sugges9ng a shiV in travel mo?va?ons and spa?al paUerns.
Discussion
The exploratory spa?al analysis clearly revealed the existence of spa?al eects for regional
tourism aUrac?veness and also for the determinants of tourism demand.
The iden9ed spa9al eects are, in general, more clear in the South European regions.

Regional aUrac?veness is related, not only to their natural and cultural resources,
but also to the resources available in the neighbour regions
This has clear implica9ons in terms of tourism promo9on and infrastructure planning
(transports, accommoda9on, etc).

The spa9al eects iden9ed in the space-?me model reveal the existence of:
- a compe??ve process expressed in the nega9ve value of the spa9al autoregressive
coecient, showing that tourism demand in one region can have nega9ve consequences in the
con9guous regions;
- posi?ve impacts of unmodelled eects expressed in the spa9al error variance parameter
(almost three 9mes higher);
- overall posi?ve spa?al eects.
Discussion
Local resource management, promo?onal strategies, transport systems and accommoda?on

provision can be more eciently planned if there is some collabora?on among clusters of
regions with similar characteris?cs, even if they do not belong to the same country.

The analyses provides sa9sfactory results for the South European regions.

For the North European regions, other kind of informa9on related to natural and cultural assets
can provide more accurate results in terms of spa9al impacts, although there is not enough
comparable informa9on at interna9onal level, at this moment.
Thank you for your attention!

Relationship Between Culture, Nature, Infrastructure and Tourism Demand in European Regions

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Culture,

Nature and Sustainable Tourism Development:

Joo Romo University of Algarve

Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Importance of South European regions (West Mediterranean)

Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Importance of Eastern European regions (West Mediterranean)

Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Importance of urban areas (Paris, Barcelona, London, Berlin)

Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Importance of South European regions (West Mediterranean)

Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Importance of South European regions

Tourism demand, culture and nature: data and variables

Importance of South European areas

Panel regression without spa?al eects

logNIT it = 0 + 1 logBEDS it + 2 HERIT it + 3 NAT it + uit

Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance

NAT 0.0034 0.0010 3.4350 0.0006 0.001

Despite de very high signicance of all the parameters es9mated,

Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis

Moran I tests for spa?al autocorrela?on

Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis

Local Indicators of Spa?al Autocorrela?on

Cluster of high values (red)

Cluster of low values (blue)

Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis

Local Indicators of Spa?al Autocorrela?on

Cluster of high values (red)

Clusters of low values (blue)

Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis

Local Indicators of Spa?al Autocorrela?on

Cluster of high values (red)

Clusters of low values (blue)

Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis

Local Indicators of Spa?al Autocorrela?on

Tourism demand and

Clusters of high values for both (red)

Clusters of high values for cultural assets

Irregular spa?al paUerns.

Territory: Exploratory Spa?al Data Analysis

Local Indicators of Spa?al Autocorrela?on

Tourism demand and

Clusters of high values for both (red)

Clusters of high values for natural assets

High number of spa?al outliers

Panel regression with spa?al eects

logNIT it = WYit + 0 + 1 logBEDS it + 2 HERIT it + 3 NAT it + uit

Panel regression without spa?al eects

Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance

NAT 0.0002 0.0012 0.1783 0.86

Spatial auto-regressive coefficient -0.2478 0.0260 -3.2941 0.0009 0.001

Posi9ve overall spa?al eects (error variance + spa9al auto-regressive coecient)

Conrma?on of the poten?al of spa?al analysis for tourism studies.

Local resource management, promo?onal strategies, transport systems and accommoda?on

Thank you for your attention!

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