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Proceedings of the ASME 2013 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition

IMECE2013
November 15-21, 2013, San Diego, California, USA

IMECE2013-62970

ROBUST DESIGN OF NORTH AMERICAN POWER GRID TO MITIGATE


CASCADING FAILURES

Joseph R. Piacenza John J. Fields


Irem Y. Tumer Mir Abbas Bozorgirad
Complex Engineered System Christopher Hoyle
Design Lab System Optimization Lab
Oregon State University Oregon State University
Corvallis, Oregon 97331 Corvallis, Oregon 97331
piacenzj@engr.orst.edu fieldsjo@engr.orst.edu
irem.tumer@oregonstate.edu bozorgim@onid.orst.edu
chris.hoyle@oregonstate.edu

ABSTRACT satisfy network demand after a failure, while robustness is


Catastrophic cascading system failures such as the August represented as the lack of variability in the amount of demand
13th Blackout of 2003 highlight the vulnerability of the North which is satisfied after a failure. By understanding network
American power grid, and emphasize the need for research to reactions due to cascading failures, as well as performance
mitigate failure events. The incorporation of robust design, the trade-offs required to mitigate these failures, reliability in
insensitivity of system performance in the presence of noise (or power grid systems can be increased.
uncertainty) from both internal and external sources, into
existing and future power grid design strategies can increase
system reliability. This paper presents a high-level topological INTRODUCTION
network approach to power grid robust optimization as a Large-scale propagating system failures in the North
solution for designing against cascading system failure. A American power grid remain constant over the past few
mathematical model was created representing a standard power decades as the rising population and distributed geography
grid network consisting of generation and demand nodes, as continues to drive increases in energy demand and
well as node connections based on actual topological transportation. Political influences, such as industry
transmission line relationships. Each node possesses unique deregulation and multiple stakeholders, add further system
power generation or demand attributes, and various network complexity. Beyond increasing energy demand availability,
connection configurations are examined based on system power grid infrastructure reliability is a vital concern when
demand requirements. In this model, failure events are initiated addressing system expansion. Major system failures such as
by the removal of a single network connection, and remaining the Blackout of 2003 highlight the vulnerability of subsystems
loads are redistributed throughout the system. Cascading within the North American power grid, and support the need for
failure effects are captured when the existing network reliability research to mitigate failure events [1]. Cascading
configuration cannot support the resulting demand load, and hardware failures are primarily responsible for system
transmission line failures continue propagate until the system blackouts; however, communication deficiencies also
again reaches a steady state, based on remaining nodes and contribute to significant failure propagation in the Northeast
connections. The primary goal of this research is to facilitate U.S during the Blackout [2]. Although there have been
an understanding of design trade-offs between system significant advances in power grid reliability and optimization
robustness and performance objectives. In this research, methods, data provided by the North American Electric
robustness is defined as the resilience to initiating faults, where Reliability Council (NERC) shows that the frequency of
a robust network has the ability to meet system generation blackouts has not decreased over the past 25 years [3].
requirements despite propagating network failures. Primary Current literature shows many existing tools available to
performance objectives are total system cost and the ability to understand effects of failure propagation in power systems.

1 Copyright 2013 by ASME


However, these methods dont typically address the formalized (e.g., fuel consumption, cost, payload capacity), and contribute
concept of robustness, and how complex systems can be significantly to system robustness.
designed to be resilient to failures [4-8]. In addition, it would
be difficult to scale component level failure propagation BACKGROUND
methods to represent the entire North American power grid in
terms of computational efficiency. Robust design provides a Power Grid Optimization
methodology to design systems robust to sources of Despite continuous research in energy systems and
uncertainty, such as failures in the power grid, without the need advancements in hardware and software technology, overall
to understand or reduce sources of uncertainty. Robust design power system reliability has remained constant over the past
is typically defined as the insensitivity to noise (or uncertainty) two decades [10]. Organizations such as the North American
on system performance from both internal and external sources Electric Reliability Council, Edison Electric Institute, and the
[9]. The primary issue, however, is creating designs robust to Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) contribute this issue
the various types of failures and uncertainty present in a to Federal reorganization and deregulation of the North
complex and largely distributed systems such as the power grid. American power grid, citing growing discontinuity between
Many system failures occur as a result of natural occurrences transmission and distribution systems [11]. Currently,
such as extreme weather conditions, and predicting the effects probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods are considered a
of these events is challenging, specifically due to cascading best practice for evaluating these types of faults, which
faults resulting from a single initiating event. ultimately lead to system failures, causing measureable system
The research presented in this paper is a system-level blackouts. The Long Island Power Authority uses a PRA tool,
approach to power grid robust optimization, as a solution for developed by EPRI, to determine likelihood and magnitude of
mitigating cascading system failure. The primary goal is to occurrences within their local power system [12]. One issue,
facilitate an understanding between design trade-offs in system however, is the localization of the failure analysis, and this
performance and robustness. For example, if system software does not account for propagating failures that occurs
optimization objectives (e.g., cost, ability to meet demand) over multiple utilities.
were purely deterministic, a traditional optimization approach A primary objective of power grid optimization is
would suffice. This would provide the lowest cost option, maintaining system reliability while considering various
assuming negligible vulnerabilities to system failure. generation sources, transmission infrastructure, physical
Conversely, if a system required invariant performance with hardware, and demand populations. Understanding subsystem
respect to all potential failure scenarios, a purely robust strategy relationships on a system level creates a challenge for
would be implemented, which would be the most reliable, researchers to create computer simulation models that
highest cost option. Robust optimization examines trade-offs effectively capture significant interactions among these
between performance and robustness, considering effects of components. Events that most often trigger power grid system
both external and internal system uncertainties. failures are natural occurrences such as hurricanes, ice storms,
In this paper, a methodology is presented for modeling and lightning. Although wind and rain accounted for 31.4% of
power grid failures, including generation, demand, and blackouts between 1984-2006, equipment failure was the
transmission components, as well as system topology. An second greatest source of failure accounting for 19.9% of
adjacency matrix is used to represent a power grid network, events [10]. Several accepted hardware solutions have been
where nodes represent either power generation plants (Ng) or developed to respond to failure such as the Flexible AC
demand populations (Nd), and node connectivity represents Transmission System (FACTS), introduced by Hingorani [13].
physical transmission line connections. Optimization tradeoffs This technology enables the control of power flow on
are between performance objectives (e.g., cost, ability to meet Alternating Current (AC) transmission lines to optimize loading
expected demand after a cascading failure) and performance [14]. Lininger et al. have incorporated the FACTS device into
variability. a computer simulation using a Maximum Flow algorithm to
In addition to the North American power grid, this detect failure types in various outage scenarios [8]. Similar
methodology could be applied to other complex systems, research by Carrers et al. has led to a computer model to
specifically where a single variable is a driving objective. For replicate power outages due to line outages or losses due to
example, maximizing expected demand is a desired objective in excessive load limits [6]. Pinar et al. have also addressed
power grid optimization, as generation is affected by other power grid vulnerability by outlining optimization strategies for
system elements such as demand and infrastructure reliability. power line failure prevention [15]. Pahwa et al. have examined
In this case, designing energy generation strategies that lead to system failure modes by simulating a power grid within a
system robustness will include optimizing control factors, while standard network such as the IEEE 300 bus to examine
considering the magnitude of unintended or stochastic events cascading system failures [16]. Mitigation strategies to reduce
resulting from external environmental effects. This is failures include targeted range-based load reductions and
analogous to aerospace design in that driving system variables intentional islanding. .
such as weight must be traded with other performance attributes Examining and modeling system failure due to cascading
faults is an area of research intended to predict the probability

2 Copyright 2013 by ASME


of outages across regions. Talukdar et al. have focused on Subsequent averaging is done over every demand node i of the
power grid failure predictions addressing partial functionality network.
of a grid after a failure event, instead of attempting to find a Another method by Ash and Newth examines the
solution to prevent them all [17]. This methodology addresses optimization of complex networks with respect to the average
system uncertainty from dynamic periods of change due to efficiency of the network [23]. Average efficiency was first
intended switching operations designed to bring systems back introduced by Crucitti et al. and is among the vitality measures,
online. Fairley comments on this methodology, supporting the and can be calculated as follows [24]:
premise that failure is a byproduct of such a large complex
system and research in mathematical modeling for failure !
E G = !!!! !" (2)
! !!!
management, instead of elimination, should be a primary
strategy for increased reliability [1].
Incorporating robustness into power grid optimization will where !" denotes the efficiency of the most efficient path
allow designers to examine important tradeoffs affecting between i and j. In this definition, the adjacency matrix is an
reliability. Historically, robust design has been used in NN matrix of {e!" } where 0 < e!" 1 if there is an arc
manufacturing to minimize unintended consequences between node i and node j, otherwise e!" = 0.
(variability) from uncontrollable environmental effects [18].
One drawback of robust design in manufacturing is the focus CONTRIBUTIONS
on optimizing a single variable (e.g., size, weight). Expanding Current literature in power grid optimization shows a
on Taguchis fundamental methods, Chang et al. have scaled deficiency in strategies for incorporating robustness in design.
these principles to complex systems where multiple subsystems This is because most methods focus on absolute failure
must be optimized independently with limited knowledge of prevention, instead of the ability of a system to successfully
other system design parameters [19]. This work outlines the operate in a degraded state after a failure event. Since the
need for a distributed robust optimization method, accounting majority of failures occur from extreme environmental effects,
for both physical and intangible noises that are out of the the ability of a system to continue operation in the event of an
designers control. initiating failure event is essential in creating reliable systems.
In addition, topology considerations are typically not included,
Social Network Theory specifically when using standard test cases (e.g., IEEE).
Based on the distributed nature of the North American This work integrates state-of-the art robust optimization
power grid (NAPG), understanding geographic effects is techniques with social network analysis in order to minimize
important when designing for failure resistance. As the NAPG cascading failure effects from a single initiating event. This
was originally constructed ad hoc based on sprawling novel approach presents design trade offs between performance
population and increasing demand, network topology and performance variability (robustness) of a degraded complex
optimization was not a primary consideration. Current system, after failure has occurred. Using this method, network
literature addresses optimization of power grid network designs can be created that account for, and are resilient to,
topology, often drawing from social network theory, where uncertainty from external events (e.g., natural disasters) often
networks are represented mathematically [20]. To address affecting highly distributed networks. Specifically, this
network relationships, several centrality indices are studied in research accounts for system specific stochastic environmental
the literature, but can be primarily categorized into three major effects, and accounts for the ability to meet specified
classes: reachability measures, vitality measures, and flow requirements, as well as considering cost. It will provide a
measures. Kinney et al. model the power grid with an novel approach to distributed complex system design by
adjacency matrix, where each node represents either a minimizing the effect of failures through topology design, and
generation or demand component in a network, and arcs optimizing for both performance and variability.
connecting the nodes represent connectivity [21]. In this work, In this paper, a methodology has been developed to include
failures are examined by removal of a single node, which failure resistance into high-level power grid design, by
triggers an overload cascade in the network. Similar methods incorporating robustness into power grid network topology. In
are used by Leonardo and Vemuru, where connectivity loss ! , this method, robustness is represented as the ability of a
measures network performance [22]: network to satisfy demand, after a cascading failure event. A
mathematical representation of a power grid network was
!
! !! !! created using an adjacency matrix, where system attributes for
! = 1 ! !! (1)
!! power generation, regional demand, and system topology were
included. This model is based on the IEEE 14 test bus.
where n! is the number of generation nodes, n! is the number However, it was created with scalability in mind for larger
of demand nodes at the unperturbed network state, and !! is networks. The result is an optimization tool that creates a
the number of generation units able to supply flow to power grid network, based on user data for power generation
distribution (demand) vertex i after disruptions take place. and demand requirements. System robustness is evaluated
based on tradeoffs between performance objectives, and

3 Copyright 2013 by ASME


variability of each. A case study is presented, using data from
the IEEE 14 test bus, and performance values are compared
between the optimized solution, the robust solution, and the
original network.

METHODOLOGY

Power Grid Parameter Design


In the case of the N.A. power grid, applying Taguchis
Parameter Design to the system displays how different sources
of uncertainty effect system response (Fig. 1) [9, 18]. In this
method, the system control factors are elements that can be
Figure 2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OPTIMAL
varied within the system, and noise factors are environmental
SOLUTION AND ROBUST SOLUTION [25].
elements that cannot be controlled. When addressing potential
initiating events for fault propagation, both types of factors
Numerical Implementation
must be considered. Failures from external events are
The research presented in this paper combines ideas on
addressed in the context of Type 1 (Parameter) robust design,
social network theory and known robust optimization
or design intended to minimize performance loss from external
strategies. In the methodology presented, the power grid
noise. To address internal noise, Type II (Tolerance) robust
network is created in MatLab, represented by an NN
optimization can be applied to a design. This method reduces
adjacency matrix, were = ! + ! , ! being the number of
performance losses due to uncertainty from internal control
variables within the system. In the context of the power grid, generation nodes and ! representing the number of demand
this would include uncertainty due to fluctuations in energy populations. This matrix is created randomly, based on user
generation from variable sources such as wind generation or inputs for the number of generation and demand nodes desired.
demand fluctuation. The generated network is then tested for connectivity, as each
demand population must be serviced (connected) to a
generation node to meet expected demand. In this model, an
algorithm based on breadth first search was used to check the
connectivity of the network.
Since the goal of this work is to design for failure
resistance, it is assumed that greater system connectivity leads
to higher reliability. For example, if a design exists where
individual nodes have multiple connection degrees to other
nodes in the network, it would be more reliable than a network
with limited connections in the event of an arc (transmission
line) failure. The tradeoff however, is the cost of each
transmission line, as it is not feasible to incorporate line
redundancy between each connection. The relationship
between transmission line cost with respect length is described
in Eq. 3 as
Figure 1: PARAMETER DIAGRAM OF POWER
GRID SYSTEM ! ! !"#$%!
!"# = !!! !!! !"#$%! !" !" !" (3)

Lewis et al. combine both Type I and Type II robust design where !! is the adjacency matrix, !! represents the actual
principles and apply them to complex systems, in an effort to !"#$%!
length between all pairs of nodes, and !! includes the cost
address uncertainty from both internal and external
environment [25]. The goal of Lewis formulation was to meet for the unit length between all pairs of nodes. Intuitively, the
performance requirements, while minimizing the variation most robust solution would have the highest connectivity as
about the mean. Figure 2 outlines this relationship, displaying well as the highest cost.
how the optimized solution may exist at the boundary of an
objective, where variability is greatest [9, 25]. The objective Power Grid Structure
value of the robust solution is slightly higher, although with To accurately represent a power grid, both generation
less performance variation. Power grid designs can benefit nodes and demand nodes are assigned to represent power
from applying this method, as uncertainties from both sources generation and demand sources respectively, and are user-
are present, including external noise factors (e.g., natural defined values. Generation values are based on power plant
disasters) and internal noise variables (e.g., expected demand). energy production, and demand values are the total power
demand required to reliably service a given area. It is assumed

4 Copyright 2013 by ASME


that, if connected, power can flow unaffected between both when the system has reached a steady state where all arcs can
types of nodes. meet capacity.
As with the NAPG, the arcs (between nodes) are modeled
to have a maximum available capacity for power transportation, Optimization Objective
and a specified line load based on the number of nodes they are To understand important power grid interactions and
transporting power to. Line load (!"#$ ) is the amount of design for failure resistance, the optimization objective was
power flowing through an arc based total system demand and developed based on the ability of a network to satisfy
connectivity, assuming the load path always travels through the population demand after a cascading failure, for the lowest cost.
shortest path available from a generation node to a destination Robustness is incorporated into the objective by considering the
node. This is calculated based on the number of shortest path variation of Expected Demand (DE) in the solution.
connections (SP) and magnitude of the demand nodes it
services along the way (Eq. 4). find (7)
!" minimize
!"#$ = !!! ! (4)
! = !"# ()
Where ! is the demand that has to be satisfied by shortest path ! = ! ()
. Line capacity (!"# ) is defined as the maximum power that ! = !!! ()
can flow through an individual arc before a failure occurs,
based on an arc factor of safety () (Eq. 5). subject to
! : !"#$ 1 = 0
!"# = 1 + !"#$ (5) ! : = {0,1}!!

Connectivity relationships are based on previous research Where and !"#$ are the adjacency matrix and the number
by Kirk, where Dijkstras algorithm is used to determine the of disconnected components of the network, respectively.
shortest path distances between generation and demand nodes
which are used to calculate the loads on the connection lines CASE STUDY AND RESULTS
[27]. The average demand that is satisfied after a typical failure
has happened is referred to as Expected Demand (! ). Failure IEEE 14 Test Bus System
events are administered randomly by the removal of a single The IEEE 14 Test Bus system (Fig. 3) was used to validate
arc, and resultant demand being satisfied after cascading failure the methodology presented [26]. This network consists of two
is calculated as (! ). Arc removal is performed 10 times within power generation stations, and 12 additional demand
a given power grid network design, and Expected Demand is connections. Since cascading failure is being evaluated in
calculated based on the average of resultant demand for each terms of transmission line loading, the physical topology of
failure scenario, given total network connectivity (Eq. 6). lines was considered (Fig. 4). Based on IEEE 14 transmission
line lengths calculated by the Power Systems Engineering
!!!!" Research Center, a geographical power grid map was
! = (6)
!" constructed [27]. This is an important system attribute as line
lengths directly drive connectivity costs. In order to accurately
Arcs can also be removed according to the distribution of represent system demand, nominal demand node power
failure events anticipated based upon historic data using a requirement values were used from the IEEE 14 system.
Monte Carlo simulation approach.
Optimization Algorithm
Cascading Failure A genetic algorithm (GA) was used within the MatLab
In this model, a failure event is initiated by the random Optimization Toolbox to solve objectives [28]. Since Expected
removal of an arc, forcing the original load on that arc to be Demand Variability is part of the objective function, values
redistributed to the next available shortest path in the system. were normalized so the GA could evaluate solutions on the
This is an iterative process where !"#$ () is the initial arc same scale. Values were calculated for Cost, Expected
load at a given time t, and its value is based on the demand Demand, and Expected Demand Variability from the original
node values associated with it. For an arc failure to occur, line IEEE 14 transmission line configuration. These nominal values
load must exceed line capacity. Ten arcs were selected were included in the fitness function for each objective (Eq. 7).
randomly for removal, although future work will include actual
transmission line failure rates. After a failure, the arc is
removed from the network and load is recalculated for all
remaining arcs. If load exceeds capacity in another arc, this
one is also removed from the network and the redistribution
process is repeated. The cascading failure will eventually end

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In addition, a penalty function was used to penalize solutions in
which the grid is disconnected. This was included to ensure
network connectivity after a cascading failure. The objective is
stated as:

!"#!
= + !"## (8)
!"""!"!

where the ! is the value of the objective functions, IEEE14n


is the calculated objective value from the original IEEE 14 test
bus, and !"## is the penalty function for disconnectivity.

Figure 3. IEEE 14 TEST BUS SYSTEM [26]

13' 94.7"
14'

54.4"
11'

34.44"
54.1"
12' 73.6"

69.6"
52.3"

6'
5'
2.86"
11.8" 4'
15.2" 10'
12.0" 11.6"
1(Gen)' 9'
23.0"
2(Gen)' 13.46"
3'
4.02"
30.0"

8' 48.0"
7'

Figure 4. IEEE 14 POWER GRID GEOGRAPHICAL NETWORK (LINE LENGTHS IN MILES)

Optimization Results design, since the number of node connections was the same.
The simulation was run for approximately 600 iterations. Expected Demand is greater than one, signifying a greater
From these results a plot of Pareto optimal solutions is ability of the robust solution to meet demand requirements after
displayed in Figure 5. In this plot, design values are a cascading scenario. Expected Demand Variability is less than
normalized with respect to the performance of the original 0.1, displaying a significantly lower variance. These results are
IEEE 14 network configuration. Tradeoffs between each expected as the IEEE 14 network was physically constructed
objective solution are explored within this design space, and an based on both population demand and geography, and was
optimal value calculated. In the Robust Design solution (Fig. unlikely optimized for performance. The physical topology of
5), the normalized Cost is slightly less than one, determining the robust network, compared to the original IEEE 14 is shown
the robust solution was less expensive than the original IEEE in Figure 6 and 7.
14 network. The cost was reduced, primarily due to the
efficiency of transmission line topology used in the robust

6 Copyright 2013 by ASME


respectively for the non-robust solution. The non-robust
network configuration is a direct result of the Variability
objective being removed, where the optimal solution focuses
exclusively on meeting performance objectives Cost and
Robust Design Expected Demand. Although the robust solution contains the
same number of connections as the original IEEE 14 network,
this solution is significantly less expensive, and resilient to
cascading failure due to the efficiency of the arc placement.
For example, the generation nodes (node 1 and 2) of the
original solution each have 2 and 4 degrees of connectivity
respectively.
It should be noted that neither model (robust or
deterministic) currently accounts for physical geographical
constraints between nodes (e.g., mountains, rivers, preservation
areas), and assumes the shortest path is always available.
However, the original IEEE 14 network is constrained by the
Figure 5. NORMALIZED CUMULATIVE PARETO physical distances between nodes, which were originally
SOLUTIONS FOR ROBUST NETWORK constructed around such topology restrictions, as well as
demand. Additional constraints will be included in future work
To verify this method is producing an optimized robust by penalizing node connections to represent various topological
solution, the simulation was tested with the removal of features.
Expected Demand Variability objective. In this version of the
solution, only Cost and Expected Demand are considered as
objectives, and variance is ignored (i.e., a deterministic
optimization). All existing constraints remained, and the
normalized fitness function values are also based on the
original IEEE 14 solution. Based on this simulation, the pure
optimal solution for Cost is slightly lower than the robust
solution (Table 1). In addition, Expected Demand is also lower,
since a low cost (smaller number of network connections)
solution is more affected by failure events. This optimal
solution represents an actual power grid design that is low cost,
but less resistant to cascading failure than the robust solution
since the ability to satisfy demand is lower. A summary of
objective solutions for all three scenarios is given in Table 1.
While the percentage difference between optimized and robust
solutions is small, this proof of concept simulation displays Figure 6. ROBUST NETWORK CONNECTION
how performance objective values can greatly affect result TOPOLOGY (19 LINES)
variability. The differences are expected to be greater when
optimizing larger grid systems.

Table 1. OBJECTIVE VALUES FOR STANDARD AND


OPTIMIZED IEEE 14 TEST BUS

Network Expected Exp. Demand Network


Cost Demand Variance Connections
Origional IEEE 14 1212 182 5738 19
Optimized Network 660 224 769 17
Robust Network 666 235 235 19

Network Topology
In terms of network topology, the robust network (Fig. 6)
consists of 19 transmission lines, versus 17 in the optimal
solution (Fig. 8). The network is fully connected, with no
disconnected demand nodes or sub-networks. The generation
Figure 7. IEEE 14 ORIGIONAL CONNECTION
nodes (node 1 and 2) of the robust solution each have 3 and 5
TOPOLOGY (19 LINES)
degrees of connectivity respectively, versus 3 and 4 degrees

7 Copyright 2013 by ASME


tradeoffs between demands regions, and the effect of cascading
failures from one population to another. This would be an
accurate abstraction of how power grid networks are currently
physically constructed between regional interconnections.
One challenge in this research is the ability to validate the
method as an accurate abstraction for modern power grid
systems. While the case study presented shows merit, scaling
the method to a larger network will assist in determining the
solution accuracy.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the
University of Alabama in Huntsville Center for System Studies
and NASA Marshall under grant SUB2012-052

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