THE OCEANIC MIXED LAYER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP ON NITRATE AND IRON FOR

PRODUCTIVITY ZONE DETECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN INDIAN OCEAN

Edy Miswar1, Yopi Ilhamsyah*1, Ichsan Setiawan1, Muhammad Irham1

1. Faculty of Marine Science and Fisheries, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
*Corresponding author: yopi.ilhamsyah@unsyiah.ac.id

Oceanic mixed layer play a major role in determining the abundances of marine productivity.
Seasonally, the depth of the mixed zone where light is still possible to penetrate contribute to
regulate near-surface biomass stocks. In the off Western Sumatera Waters to the Bay of Bengal in
the north where depth is greater than 1000 m and located in the northeastern part of vast Indian
Ocean which is right on the track of Intertropical Convergence Zone where sun heat the seawater
excessively over certain seasons, the depth of the mixed layer is yet to be well-determined and its
association with food chain in this waters is still relatively little-known. Thus, the research on the
the depth of the oceanic mixed layer below and its link to the availability of nitrate and iron in
the upper ocean is essential to carry out. The objective of the research is to determine the spasio-
temporal of oceanic mixed layer seasonally as well as nitrate and iron concentration; and to
identify the ocean primary production zone. The domain of the research areas cover Northeastern
Indian Ocean between 06S-23N and 80-106E. The research was carried out by employing
monthly model outputs of iron (mole/L) and nitrate (nanomole/L) concentrations, and mixed
layer depth (m) provided by NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM). The spatial
resolution cover 0.667 x 1.25 with temporal data range from Jan. 01st, 1999 to Dec.31st, 2012.
The spatial detection of ocean primary production zone was done by performing the pearson
correlation between ocean mixed layer and iron and nitrate. The results showed that the ocean
mixed layer is deeper during dry season between June and August in the off Northern Sumatera
Waters up to Bay of Bengal leading nitrate concentration to decrease with average depth and
concentration of 30 m and 1.59 nanomole/L, respectively but on the contrary iron concentration
raise (0.57 mole/L in average) as the mixed layer is thicker. The shallow mixed layer take place
in the off west coast of Aceh Waters during wet season (Dec.-Feb.). The potential marine
productivity zone associated with mixed layer and iron are detected in the offshore West Aceh.

Keywords: marine productivity zone, offshore West Aceh.

Future Climate Change Impact on Oceanic States

in the Tropical Region Based on CMIP5

Yopi Ilhamsyah*1,2, Yonny Koesmaryono2, Rahmat Hidayat2, I Wayan Nurjaya3, Agus Saleh
Atmadipoera3, Muhammad Irham1
1. Faculty of Marine Sciences and Fisheries, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh,
Indonesia
2. Applied Climatology of Graduate School of Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor,
Indonesia
3. Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor,
Indonesia
 *Corresponding author: yopi.ilhamsyah@unsyiah.ac.id

The changing of the climate due to the increase of greenhouse gas emission is becoming
unequivocal in the forthcoming times. In response to the changing of the primary conditions of
the atmosphere that are projected to increase particularly in the tropical region where developing
countries are mostly located and solar radiation is abundant, the oceanic states is believed to have
changed as well leading to severe adverse effect on marine ecosystem. The understanding of
near-future oceanic states which have ability to capture its physical and biogeochemical
characteristics is urgent to investigate. The purpose of the study is to describe and to analyze the
spatio-temporal of the baseline and future physical and biogeochemical condition of the tropical
ocean based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (later known as CMIP5). Two
radiative forcing scenarios are selected, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 which are stable and high
greenhouse gas emission, respectively. Ocean-physical variables include Sea-Surface
Temperature, Salinity, Potential Temperature, Mixed layer depth, Heat Content, Static Stability
while ocean biogeochemical variable consist of Sea-Surface pH, Oxigen, Chlorophyll, Primary
Productivity, Alkalinity, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Concentration. Six global circulation
models are chosen with one average of all models (resolutions of 1x1) provided by CMIP5.
The depiction of physical and biogeochemical characteristics is carried out using statistical
analysis of anomaly, standard anomaly (average historical and ensemble spread) including
ensemble spread of future change. Time-series analysis span from 2006 to 2055 and 2050-2099
including its historical record as baseline. The analysis is done seasonally (i.e., Jan.-March, Apr.-
June, July-Sept., Oct.-Dec.). The domain of study area cover the tropical ocean between 30N-
30S and 29-178E. By providing future informations of tropical oceanic states as obtained from
the present study, it is expected that climate risks in the maritime sector could be minimized by
performing appropriate options of mitigation and adaptation not only to maintain but to raise
productivity in this sector.

Keywords:

Future Climate Change Responses on Sea-Surface Temperature and Precipitation in the Tropical
Region Based on CMIP5 Performances

Yopi Ilhamsyah*1,2, Yonny Koesmaryono2, Rahmat Hidayat2, I Wayan Nurjaya3, Agus Saleh
Atmadipoera3, Muhammad Irham1
1. Faculty of Marine Sciences and Fisheries, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh,
Indonesia 23111
2. Applied Climatology of Graduate School of Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor,
Indonesia 16680
3. Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor,
Indonesia 16680
*Corresponding author: yopi.ilhamsyah@unsyiah.ac.id
The climate change is certain to happen in the future. In response to this projected increase of
greenhouse gas emission, sea-surface temperature, and precipitation are also changing in the
future. In the tropical region where radiation is abundant and rainfall variability is the greatest,
ocean warming due to climate change lead precipitation to increase in the future as projected by
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013, and become more vulnerable on
extreme climate in the future. Thus, the study on future conditions of sea-surface temperature
and precipitation over tropical region based on CMIP5 performances is essential to conduct. The
purpose of the study is to analyze the ability of model outputs of CMIP5 in projecting future
states of surface ocean warming and precipitaton over tropical regions. Six CMIP5 models are
evaluated using statistical analysis of mean, standard deviation, 10 th and 90th percentiles based on
historical records as baseline. The averages of all models (resolutions of 1x1) is also
performed. The analysis is done seasonally. Two emission scenarios are chosen, those are:
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing stable and high greenhouse gas emissions, respectively.
Temporal projection of sea-surface temperature and precipitation span from 2006-2055 and
2050-2099 with a baseline of 1956-2005. The domain of study area cover the tropical region
between 30N-30S and 29-178E including the maritime continent Indonesia. By analyzing the
performances of CMIP5 model outputs provided by Assessment Report 5, it is expected the
reliable condition of future sea-surface temperature and precipitation over tropical regions are
able to derive and to capture. Hence, the information would be useful for policy makers,
stakeholders,etc to reduce climate change risk as well as to increase productivity by performing
appropriate mitigation and adaptation in many sectors.

Keywords: CMIP5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5

in the tropical region where developing countries are mostly located and solar radiation is
abundant, the sea-surface temperature and precipitation is believed to have changed as well
leading to severe adverse effect on marine ecosystem.

The understanding of near-future oceanic states which have ability to capture its physical and
biogeochemical characteristics is urgent to investigate. The purpose of the study is to describe
and to analyze the spatio-temporal of the baseline and future physical and biogeochemical
condition of the tropical ocean based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (later
known as CMIP5). Two radiative forcing scenarios are selected, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 which
are stable and high greenhouse gas emission, respectively. Ocean-physical variables include Sea-
Surface Temperature, Salinity, Potential Temperature, Mixed layer depth, Heat Content, Static
Stability while ocean biogeochemical variable consist of Sea-Surface pH, Oxigen, Chlorophyll,
Primary Productivity, Alkalinity, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Concentration. Six global
circulation models are chosen with one average of all models (resolutions of 1x1) provided by
CMIP5. The depiction of physical and biogeochemical characteristics is carried out using
statistical analysis of anomaly, standard anomaly (average historical and ensemble spread)
including ensemble spread of future change. Time-series analysis span from 2006 to 2055 and
2050-2099 including its historical record as baseline. The analysis is done seasonally (i.e., Jan.-
March, Apr.-June, July-Sept., Oct.-Dec.). The domain of study area cover the tropical ocean
between 30N-30S and 29-178E. By providing future informations of tropical oceanic states as
obtained from the present study, it is expected that climate risks in the maritime sector could be
minimized by performing appropriate options of mitigation and adaptation not only to maintain
but to raise productivity in this sector.

The northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters was studied by employing three-dimensional (3D)
numerical hydrodynamic model. The purpose of the study is to understand the phenomena and
the characteristic of northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters. The research used the explicit-
splitting scheme numerical model of Navier-Stockes formulation. The result displays that the
vertical rotation of flow movement (vertical eddy) at the depth of 15 to 25 meter eastern part of
study area. Hence, the result also informs that the current circulation identically to the upwelling
in the western part of Aceh during wet season and vice versa. However, during the transitional
season, the flow circulation depends on how the tidal dynamic occurs in the area.

The marine exploration over certain specific sites require detailed field observation, it is,
however, very costly. To address this issue, the utilization of fine-resolution outputs of oceanic
states, i.e., sea-surface temperature, salinity, and current derived from the ocean model is crucial.
The objective of the research is to use high-resolution well-performed model outputs of present
and forecasting states of the ocean for marine exploration. The outputs are retrieved from
HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) Global Analysis with spatial resolution of
1/12(approximately 8 km) and 10-levels in the vertical direction (ranging between 0 and 200
m). As a case study, the Aceh Waters is chosen to describe the oceanic states over the region
under various climatic condition. By utilizing high-resolution outputs, a particular ocean
condition over certain spots of offshore exploration in the Aceh Waters could be well-real-time
monitored, described and predicted. With the new discovery of massive oil source in the off west
coast of Aceh as well as with the changing of the climate in the future, such physical marine
information is essential and could be used for operational purposes. Thus, it is expected
productivity over marine sector in Aceh in particular and in Indonesia in general would raise in
near-future.