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Article history: Model of a power curve allows to analyze performance of a wind turbine and compare it with other
Received 5 January 2016 turbines. An approach based on centers of data partitions and data mining is proposed to construct such
Received in revised form a model. Wind speed range is partitioned into intervals for which centers are computed. The centers are
10 August 2016
regarded as representative samples in modeling. A support vector machine algorithm is used to build a
Accepted 16 October 2016
Available online 18 October 2016
power curve model. Computational results have demonstrated that the model reects dynamic prop-
erties of a power curve. In addition it is accurate and efcient to generate. The model accuracy has been
tested with industrial wind energy data.
Keywords:
Wind turbine power curve
2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Partition centers
Data mining
Support vector machine
1. Introduction power curve models [7], to cubic and approximate cubic [3],
exponential [7], and ninth degree polynomial models [8]. The
Environmental concerns and a limited supply of fossil fuels have maximum principle method was proposed in Ref. [9] to build a
caused countries to pay attention to renewable energy. Wind en- dynamic empirical power curve model. The main idea behind the
ergy is expanding at the fastest rate among all alternative forms of dynamic power curve is to partition the wind power output into
energy generation [1]. However, the large scale deployment of wind deterministic and stochastic components, for example the Langevin
energy has brought challenges to performance assessment of wind model was used in Ref. [9]. There are also probabilistic models, for
turbines [2]. Fluctuating wind speed and power make it difcult to example, the power curve model in Ref. [10] considered the dy-
assess efciency of a turbine. A turbine with a deteriorating per- namics and uncertainty of wind power generation. Logistic func-
formance may be prone to failures, including catastrophic failures. tion models with four and ve parameters were developed in
An early maintenance intervention may be warranted. The research Ref. [11].
presented in this paper offers a solution to performance evaluation Non-parametric models do not involve equations [4]. Examples
of wind turbines. of non-parametric models include, copula power curve model,
Numerous approaches have been applied to model wind turbine cubic spline interpolation, neural network (NN), fuzzy models, and
power curves (WTPCs). The models presented in the literature are data derived models. Copula is a distribution function utilized to
usually parametric or non-parametric [3]. Examples of parametric analyze dependence of random variables. The copula model in
models include [4]: the piecewise linear model, polynomial power Ref. [12] considered the wind power curve as a bivariate joint dis-
curve, maximum principle method, and dynamical power curve. In tribution. Interpolation methods, generally used to determine
the piecewise linear model, the lines represent the data tted ac- values between two known data points, were utilized to model
cording to the least square criterion [5,6]. More accurate WTPCs power curves. The cubic spline interpolation was successfully
were modeled with polynomial equations, ranging from quadratic applied to model power curve in Ref. [3]. Neural network (NN)
models are suitable for modeling WTPCs. Three different NNs, the
generalized mapping regression (GMR), multi-layer perceptron
(MLP), and general regression neural-network (GRNN) were
* Corresponding author. applied to model WTPCs in Ref. [13]. Furthermore, fuzzy cluster
E-mail addresses: thouyang@whu.edu.cn (T. Ouyang), andrew-kusiak@uiowa.
edu (A. Kusiak), yusen-he@uiowa.edu (Y. He).
center method, fuzzy c-means clustering, and subtractive
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.10.032
0960-1481/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2 T. Ouyang et al. / Renewable Energy 102 (2017) 1e8
clustering were used in Refs. [8,14] to model WTPCs. Since super- and four segments were built in Ref. [19] (see Fig. 1). However, some
visory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems collect large points could not be well represented due to non-smoothness at a
volumes of data, data mining algorithms were used to model power juncture of segments. Non-parametric models offer exibility in
curves in Ref. [5]. dynamic models of power curves, but may come at a signicant
In summary, parametric models have limitations in expressing computational cost. The approach proposed in this paper allows to
dynamic characteristics of power curves [15], for example, at the build a dynamic WPTC model at a low computational cost.
area between two partitions. Non-parametric models are more A framework of modeling wind turbine power curves is pre-
accurate [16], however, they may come at higher computation and sented in Fig. 2. The published research (the blue dashed box at the
training cost. Development of a dynamics power curves at a low left in Fig. 2) and the proposed one (the red dashed box at the right)
computational cost calls for a new approach. An approach to model are compared. First, the original wind data is preprocessed to
power curve with cluster centers proposed in Ref. [17] reduced the eliminate abnormal data values. The approaches published in the
computational cost. In this paper the partition centers are used as literature favor use of segmented and non-parametric models. In
training examples to build a power curve model with the support this paper, the data is divided into equal size partitions. The cen-
vector machine (SVM) algorithm. troids of the partitions serve as new data points. Based on the new
The paper is organized in three sections. In Section 2, the wind data points, a dynamic WTPC is built by a support vector machine
turbine power curve (WTPC) and a framework of the proposed (SVM) algorithm. The power curve model is applied to assess per-
method is presented. Section 3 discusses the data from an oper- formance of wind turbines.
ating wind farm and the necessary data processing. Section 4 fo-
cuses on computation of partition centers and selection of a data
3. Data source and preprocessing
mining algorithm. In Section 5, the proposed method is applied to
the industrial data. Performance of the proposed model is also
The data (wind power and wind speed) used in this paper comes
discussed. Section 6 concludes the paper.
from a large wind farm located in the Midwest. The data set was
collected at turbine at a sampling interval of 10 min. In total 57,025
2. The proposed approach data points were collected from June 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015. The unit
of the active wind power is kW, and the value of power is
A wind turbine power curve (WTPC) model includes three main normalized for air density of 1.18 kg/m3.
points: A, B, C (see Fig. 1). Point A represents the cut-in wind speed, Fig. 3 illustrates the power curve constructed from the industrial
point B reects the rated power, and point C corresponding to the data. The black points are generally used to train the wind turbine
cut-out speed. power curve (WTPC). The red data points are dened in Ref. [20] as
These three points divide power curve into four segments [18], under-power points or stopping points pointing to abnormal
each having a different distribution of wind power and wind speed. behavior of a turbine. To reduce the modeling error, the under-the-
When the wind speed v<vA or v>vC, wind power output is zero. In power curve points are rejected at the pre-processing phase.
segment BC, the wind power output reaches the rated level. The Assuming a wind power series {xn}, the mean x and standard
theoretical performance of a wind turbine in segment AB is deviation s are applied to determine abnormal values. The wind
expressed in equation (1). data may not be stationary at some periods due to wind speed
uctuation. Therefore, x is computed step-by-step based on expo-
1 nential smoothing [21] according to equation (2).
P Cp rpR2 v3 (1)
2
xt axt 1 axt1 (2)
where: Cp is the wind turbine power coefcient; r represents the air
density; R is the radius of wind rotor, and v represents the wind where: xt represents the computed mean at the tth step; a is the
speed. weight parameter; and x0 is chosen as x0;. Based on equation (2),
As different segments of a power curve have different proper-
ties, segmented models are used, e.g., models composed of three
Fig. 1. An abstract power curve. Fig. 2. A framework of the proposed modeling approach.
T. Ouyang et al. / Renewable Energy 102 (2017) 1e8 3
ht 1=t 1 (6) where: xi is the input, yiY is the output, i1,2, , l, l is the number
of the training points, and Rn and Y are the value domain of x and y,
where: c(t) represents the center point at the tth step, h(t) is a respectively. The SVR model is dened in equation (9)
coefcient. The value of h(t) decreases with increasing t, i.e., more
data points are considered (see equation (6)). For t0, h(0) 1 and f x : y < u; x > b (9)
c(1) x0, the initial partition center is randomly selected. Subse-
quently when t increases, a new point is computed and a new where: x,y represents the inner product of vector x and y, u and b
partition center is selected according to equation (5)e(6). If t/, are the model parameters. To solve model equation (9), the prin-
the value of h is 0, which implies the partition center is determined. ciple of structural risk minimization (SRM) [20] results in the
Fig. 4 illustrates the wind speed partitions and centroids. All optimization model expressed in equation (10).
4 T. Ouyang et al. / Renewable Energy 102 (2017) 1e8
Table 1
X l Evaluation of models with three kernel functions.
1
min kuk2 C xi x*i
u;b 2 i1
MSE Std of MAE
xi ; x*i 0; i 1; 2; /; l
xy 1
Kx; y 1 xy xyminx; y minx; y2 minx; y3
2 3
(11)
where: Kx; y represents the spline kernel function of vectors x and Fig. 6. The ow chart of the proposed modeling approach.
y.
Fig. 9. Four power curve models for 10, 20, and 30 partitions.
6 T. Ouyang et al. / Renewable Energy 102 (2017) 1e8
Table 3 v
Error statistics of four models. u n
u1 X
RMSE t
2
R2 p b pi (14)
MAE RMSE n i1 i
10 partitions 26.5166 39.0280 0.9912
20 partitions 24.7002 38.2558 0.9915
30 partitions 25.0804 38.5224 0.9914 where: pi is the actual wind power and p b i is the predicted wind
All data points 30.6594 42.1242 0.9897 power, and n is the number of test data points. In addition to
metrics equation (13)e(14), the coefcient of determination R2 in
equation (15) is used.
implies that both models poorly model power curves. The model
Pn 2
with 20 partitions captures the best WTPC model. The results in pi b
pi
Table 2 indicates that a model built with all data points is inferior to
R2 1 Pi1
n 2
(15)
i1 pi pi
the model built at lower computational cost with a smaller number
of data points (the model with 20 partitions). The performance of where: pi is the mean value of the actual power. Table 3 provides
these models is further analyzed in the next section. the value of the three metrics for the four models.
The results in Table 3 show that models with 10, 20, 30 parti-
5.2. Quantitative assessment of model performance tions have smaller values of MAE and RMSE than model with all
data points, and their value of R2 closer to 1, which implies that
The mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean squared error these models perform better than model with all data points. The
data in Tables 2 and 3 point to the model with 20 partitions as the
best performing. Therefore, it is used to evaluate performance of
Table 4
The evaluation indicators of three different models.
the wind turbine studied in this paper. A computational study was
performed to compare the model built the approach presented in
SSE Computational time F
this paper and with the models presented in the literature. Table 4
Model 1 7.93e06 0.8185 2.6064 shows the values of three indicators for different models.
Model 2 3.08e05 7.6098 6.4606 Model 1 is the segmented model with three piecewise functions.
Model 3 3.01e05 1.0330 0.1482
Model 2 is the non-parametric model built by SVM. Model 3 is built
T. Ouyang et al. / Renewable Energy 102 (2017) 1e8 7
Fig. 11. Results of wind power prediction for a test data set.
using 20 partition centers. The segmented model dominates in the curve at high performance and low computational cost. A support
computational time, but its performance (SSE) is low. Comparing vector machine algorithm with three kernel functions was used to
Model 2 with Model 3, a result similar to that of Table 3 is obtained. build power curve models. The model with 20 partitions performed
The value of indicator F demonstrates that the proposed approach best. Its performance was compared with the models published in
prevails over the other two other models. the literature. The computational results demonstrated that there
exists a data partition granularity leading to good performing
model generated at a reasonable computational cost.
5.3. Performance evaluation of wind turbines
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