AmBank FXWeekly

19 May 2017
AmBank Research
Dollar may stage technical rebound with 1QGDP in focus
Expect USD/MYR to fluctuate in the range of 4.3145-4.3485
Key watch:- (i) 1Q US and UK GDP; (ii) May US and Euro manufacturing PMIs; (iii) Malaysia
coincident and lagging index; (iv) Interest rate decisions of Canada, Thailand and South Korea

INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES

As at Mid-price Weekly Expected Range One-year
19 May 2017 as at 5.00pm Low High Low High
USD/JPY 111.49 111.46 111.06 112.46 99.02 118.66
EUR/USD 1.1103 1.1161 1.0980 1.1341 1.0341 1.1428
AUD/USD 0.7419 0.7445 0.7264 0.7625 0.7145 0.7778
USD/CNY 6.8892 6.8898 6.8700 6.9095 6.5401 6.9649
USD/MYR 4.3280 4.3215 4.3145 4.3485 3.9327 4.5002
JPY/MYR 3.8822 3.8774 3.8579 3.8968 3.6790 4.1877
EUR/MYR 4.8166 4.8179 4.7983 4.8374 4.3625 4.8346
AUD/MYR 3.2220 3.2183 3.1991 3.2374 2.9290 3.4403
GBP/MYR 5.6355 5.6186 5.5987 5.6385 5.0400 6.0664
SGD/MYR 3.1104 3.1079 3.0888 3.1270 2.9206 3.1786
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

CLOSING LEVELS Key Highlights:-

w/w
Last Close Market Review The dollar index tumbled this week by 1.5% to close at a
Chg
KLCI 1,768.28 -7.59 six-month low of 97.84 on Thursday driven by rising political turmoil
surrounding President Trump. The pound also managed to leverage on the
Dow Jones 20,663.02 -233.59
dollar weakness, appreciating by 0.4% amid Aprils faster inflation as well as
MSCI EM 988.38 -1.40 favorable labour market and retail sales data. The euro rose against the
UST 2y (%) 1.29 -0.00 softer dollar by 1.7% to close at a six-month high of 1.1109 following the
victory of Angela Merkels Christian Democratic Union party in Germanys
UST 5y (%) 1.79 -0.05
regional election and faster inflation in April.
UST 10y (%) 2.24 -0.08
Global Outlook In the week ahead, the second estimate US 1QGDP data
Crude (US$) 49.91 +2.07
will be the primary focus of the global market. As certainty of a rate hike has
Gold (US$) 1,252.46 +24.03 been almost priced in at 97.5% and possible risk-off sentiment abating, we
As at 5.30pm, 19 May 2017 could see a technical rebound to the dollar. Whereas in Euro, the calendar
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group
will be light with only Mays manufacturing PMI being released. Hence, we
expect the euro to correct in line with the dollar. In the UK, the main data
Major currencies against MYR
on focus is the second estimate of 1QGDP as well as continued rollout of
election news leading up the June 8th snap election. We are expecting the
pound to trade range bound with some downward pressure given its
overbought position.
Malaysia Outlook With a very light calendar next week, we expect the
ringgit to be bullish next week supported by higher crude oil prices and
continued inflows into the country.
Key Watch (i) 1Q US and UK GDP; (ii) May US and Euro manufacturing
PMIs; (iii) Malaysia coincident and lagging index; (iv) Interest rate decisions
of Canada, Thailand and South Korea
Technical Outlook RSI reading which is hovering at the low side of the
oversold zone suggests the support at 4.3145 while the narrow negative gap
Note: (-) denotes stronger RM against respective in MACD sets the resistance at 4.3485.
currencies.
As at 5.30pm, 19 May 2017.
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

1
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures
 19 May 2017

AmBank Research

Weekly FX Technical Reading

Weekly Direction Year-to-date
Support Resistance RSI
against US dollar High Low
EUR
S1: 1.0997 R1: 1.1214
Range Bound 1.1172 1.0341 Overbought
S2: 1.0849 R2: 1.1284

JPY
S1: 109.64 R1: 112.39
Range Bound 118.60 108.13 Neutral
S2: 108.81 R2: 113.12

GBP
S1: 1.2844 R1: 1.3090
Range Bound 1.3048 1.1986 Overbought
S2: 1.2794 R2: 1.3144

AUD
S1: 0.7378 R1: 0.7519
Bullish 0.7750 0.7166 Oversold
S2: 0.7344 R2: 0.7562

NZD
S1: 0.6860 R1: 0.6961
Bullish 0.7376 0.6818 Neutral
S2: 0.6848 R2: 0.6980

INR
S1: 64.505 R1: 65.179
Range Bound 68.3875 63.9313 Neutral
S2: 64.355 R2: 65.327

CNY
S1: 6.8719 R1: 6.8987
Bullish 6.9640 6.8315 Neutral
S2: 6.8678 R2: 6.9053

TWD
S1: 29.988 R1: 30.388
Range Bound 32.447 29.929 Neutral
S2: 29.928 R2: 30.454

KRW
S1: 1,119 R1: 1,139
Range Bound 1,211.8 1,110.5 Neutral
S2: 1,116 R2: 1,142

MYR
S1: 4.3145 R1: 4.3485
Range Bound 4.5002 4.3115 Oversold
S2: 4.3044 R2: 4.3565

SGD
S1: 1.3846 R1: 1.4043
Bullish 1.4547 1.3886 Oversold
S2: 1.3826 R2: 1.4070

THB
S1: 34.251 R1: 34.554
Range Bound 36.008 34.210 Neutral
S2: 34.188 R2: 34.685

IDR
S1: 13,243 R1: 13,379
Bullish 13,496 13,236 Neutral
S2: 13,169 R2: 13,420

PHP
S1: 49.530 R1: 49.979
Range Bound 50.467 49.264 Neutral
S2: 49.362 R2: 50.075

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

2
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures
 19 May 2017

Key economic data/events in the week ahead (22 May 26 May) AmBank Research

Previous
Day Country Data Consensus*
Reading
Monday US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr) - 0.08
Japan Trade Balance (Apr) 515B 615B
Exports (Apr) 7.9% 12.0%
Malaysia Coincident Index M/M (Mar) - 1.3%
Leading Index M/M (Mar) - -0.9%
Tuesday US New Home Sales (Apr) 611K 621K
Markit Composite PMI Flash (May) - 53.2
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 53 52.8
Markit Services PMI Flash (May) 53 53.1
EA Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 56.5 56.7
Markit Services PMI Flash (May) 56.4 56.4
Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) - 52.7
Germany GDP Growth Rate Y/Y Final (Q1) 1.7% 1.8%
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 58 58.2
Markit Services PMI Flash (May) 55.5 55.4
Wednesday US FOMC Minutes
US Existing Home Sales (Apr) 5.68M 5.71M
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun) 10.2 10.2
Thailand Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims (20/May) - 232K
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (19/May) - 68Bcf
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (May) - 12
UK GDP Growth Rate Q/Q 2nd Est (Q1) 0.3% 0.7%
GDP Growth Rate Y/Y 2nd Est (Q1) 2.1% 1.9%
Business Investment Y/Y Prel (Q1) - -0.9%
South Korea Interest Rate Decision - 1.25%
Friday US Durable Goods Orders M/M (Apr) -1% 0.7%
GDP Price Index Q/Q 2nd Est (Q1) 2.3% 2.1%
GDP Growth Rate Q/Q 2nd Est (Q1) 0.8% 2.1%
PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est (Q1) 0.8% 2.1%
Core PCE Prices Q/Q 2 Est (Q1) 2% 1.3%
Corporate Profits Q/Q Prel (Q1) 2.3% 6.7%
Michigan Customer Sentiment Final (May) 97.7 97
Japan Inflation Rate Y/Y (Apr) 0.4% 0.2%
Core Inflation Rate Y/Y (Apr) - 0.2%
Housing Starts Y/Y (Apr) - 0.2%
Thailand Trade Balance (Apr) - $1.62B
Singapore GDP Growth Rate Y/Y Final (Q1) 2.5% 2.9%
*Bloomberg Consensus.
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

3
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures
 19 May 2017

AmBank Research

AmBank Group, Global Markets

+603-2059 8700/8600
Corporate Client Group (CCG)
hor-li-ching@ambankgroup.com

Institutional Client Group (ICG) +603-2059 8690

Azli Bin Abdul Jamil azli-abd-jamil@ambankgroup.com
Jacqueline E. Rodrigues jacqueline-r@ambankgroup.com
Ho Su Farn ho-su-farn@ambankgroup.com
Lewis Albert Singh Hans lewis-albert@ambankgroup.com
Melisa Lim Giok Ling melisa-lim@ambankgroup.com

AmBank Research
Anthony Dass anthony-dass@ambankgroup.com
Head, AmBank Research
Nur Saffiah Abdul Rahman saffiah-rahman@ambankgroup.com
FI/FX Analyst

Naomi Margaret Kasimir naomi-kasimir@ambankgroup.com

FI/FX Analyst

4
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures
 19 May 2017

AmBank Research

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER

This document is strictly confidential and is issued by AmBank (M) Berhad (AmBank) on the basis that it is only for the
information of the particular person to whom it was provided. This document may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or
published by any recipient for any purpose unless AmBanks prior written consent is obtained.
This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any
securities, foreign exchange or other product. In providing this report AmBank is not making any recommendation to buy any
securities or other product and the information provided should not be taken as investment advice. It has been prepared without
regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. AmBank has no obligation to update its
opinion or the information in this report and AmBank recommends that you independently evaluate particular investments and
strategies and seek the advice of a financial adviser prior to entering into any transaction. The appropriateness of a particular
investment or strategy will depend on your individual circumstances and objectives.
The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that AmBank believes are reliable, but while all reasonable care
has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate
or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our views as
of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Members of the AmBank Group, AmBank Group affiliates and each of their directors, officers employees and agents (Relevant
Persons) may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities or other products are
mentioned herein, may from time to time have a position in or related to the securities or products mentioned herein and may
trade or otherwise effect transactions for their own account or the accounts of customers. You should assume that the Relevant
Persons may provide or may seek investment banking or other services to or from the companies in which have an interest in
the securities or products discussed / covered in this report or previous reports by AmBank. You should be aware that any or all
of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.
AmBank is not acting as your advisor and does not owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this report and no reliance
may be placed on AmBank and the Relevant Persons may from time to time have a material interest in any such securities or
products. You should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among the things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of
interest.
AmBank is not acting as your advisor and does not owe any fiduciary duties to you in connection with this report and no reliance
may be placed on AmBank for advice or recommendations of any sort. Nothing in this report shall constitute legal, accounting or
tax advice, or a representation that any transaction or investment is appropriate for you taking into account your investment
objectives, financial situation and particular needs, or otherwise constitutes any such advice to you.
AmBank makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy of the information or fitness
for any particular purpose and does not accept any liability (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential
losses, loss of profits and damages) for any use you or your advisors make of the contents of this report or for any loss that may
arise from the use of this report or reliance by any person upon such information or opinions provided in the report.
This report has been prepared by the analysts of AmBank Markets. Facts and views presented in this report may not reflect the
views of or information known to other business units within AmBank Group.
This information herein is not intended to constitute research as it is defined by applicable laws. This report is not directed to
or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
The information provided in this document has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. AmBank (M) Bhd
does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance
by any person upon any such information or opinion. Such information or opinions are subject to change without notice, are for
general information only and is not intended as an offer to sell or a recommendation/ solicitation to buy any securities, foreign
exchange or other product.

5
Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures