***

Nicholas Ray
Proportion of LASA senior
population that intend to
perform sports In College
AP Statistics
B6
2/13/17
***
 Senior year is the height of all high school activities, from the hardest math classes, to

front row football seats. But another highlight of senior year is sports. LASA, although highly

nerdy, is a fan of all sports from true texan football players to even competitive swimmers. My

question is how many LASA senior plan on playing for sports in college? For this study, sports

was any athletic activity group from NCAA to inter-mural. I myself would like to know this

question, as going to college is not only a step further towards higher education, but a new

experience for all as a freshmen in the adult world..I am thinking on playing sports in college,

specifically swimming competitively. Instead of asking each senior in the grade, I can use the

concept of sample proportions along with confidence levels to get a good sense of the true

proportion of future college-athletes. This statistic may also affect the decision I choose, and help

me get a good picture of where my class of 2017 is moving towards as a whole.

In this study, the population at hand was LASA seniors of class 2017. A simple random

sample of size 25 was produced to create random results without bias. This study may not

represent the true population of LASA seniors because of wording/response bias in the question,

Are you planning on doing sports in college? Seniors who respond No but later on attend

sports in college would not be accounted for in my recorded proportion of LASA seniors doing

sports in college. After asking 25 random seniors the question, 13 responded yes. The

assumption I have to make are: That I used a random sample, which was given with the SRS I

performed, that the sample size is less than ten percent of the population, and 25 is less than ten

percent of 251 LASA seniors, and that np(hat) and nq(hat) are both greater than or equal to 10,

and there are 13 yes (np hat) and 12 no (nq hat). Therefore my sample proportion of LASA
seniors doing sports in college is 13/25 or 0.52. This is not guaranteed to be the exact population

proportion, but a confidence interval would give the best estimate range of proportions that the

true proportion might lie in. We are 90% confident that the true proportion of LASA seniors who

plan on being in sports in college is between 0.3437522 0.6918898. We are 95% confident that

the true proportion of LASA seniors who plan on being in sports in college is between

0.3175224 0.7166430. We are 97% confident that the true proportion of LASA seniors who plan

on being in sports in college is between 0.2890775 0.7432488.

Based on the study, we are 95% confident that the true proportion of LASA seniors who

plan on being in sports in college is between 0.3175224 0.7166430. The true proportion at hand

may or may not be inside this range, and if this study was repeated many times with the same

size of 25 students and the same class of 2017 at the time, 95 percent of the studies would

produce a confidence interval that contains the true proportion. This may not be the confidence

interval that I produced, but only five persent would not yield an interval containing the true

proportion of seniors doing sports in college. Therefore if I were to decide whether more than

fifty percent of the population was giong to perform sports in college, I would not have evidence

that this is not true, because 0.5 resides inside the confidence intervals. By doing this study, I see

that the proportion of the LASA senior population who intend on doing sports in college highly

(95 persent) confidently around 0.5, so I know that I would not be in a small minority, or large

marjory, if I were to do sports in college myself. If I were to improve this study, I would create a

better question to ask to ensure total encapsulation of the LASA seniors who are going to sports

in college, and not leave out some of the population due to poor wording or other response bias.
RStudio Code

seniors <- LASARoster[LASARoster$Grade=="12",]

sample(seniors$Student.Name, size = 25)

data <- c(1,1,1,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,1,0)

sum(data)

prop.test(13,25, conf.level = 0.9)

prop.test(13,25, conf.level = 0.95)

prop.test(13,25, conf.level = 0.98)