5/22/2017 RiskbasedmethodsoptimizemaintenanceworkscopeOil&GasJournal

Riskbasedmethodsoptimizemaintenanceworkscope
08/02/1999

TesoroHawaiiCorp.'srefinery,locatedatKapolei,Ha.,ontheislandofOahu,hasbeenimplementinganRBIstrategyfor3years.
Theprogramhasresultedina20%shiftofequipmenttolowerthelikelihoodoffailuresanda10%shifttolowerriskrankings.
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Theapplicationofriskbasedprioritizationforschedulingmaintenanceandturnaroundactivitiescanyieldsignificanteconomicadvantages.

Reliabledataandacommitmenttoariskbasedstrategycouldreducedowntimedaysby10%andexecutioncostsby15%.

Theimplementationofariskbasedinspection(RBI)strategywasappliedattwoplantswiththehelpofAptechEngineeringServicesCorp.:oneat
TennesseeEastmanDivision(TED)ofEastmanChemicalCo.,Kingsport,Tenn.,andtheotheratTesoroHawaiiCorp.`sKapolei,Ha.,refinery.
Informationobtainedfromtheriskbasedmethodologywasusedtoenhancesafety,performance,andmanagementoftheturnarounds.

Althoughnotusedinthesetwoprocessingplants,theuseoftemplateplanningwithriskrankingcanfurtheroptimizetheworkscope.

Riskbasedstrategies

Thevalueofriskstrategiescanonlybediscernedasthecompanybeginstousethesetoolsonaneverydaybasis.Theapproachisameansof
startingtheprocess,andtheapplicationiscontinuallyimprovedasmorehistoricalplantdataareobtainedanddocumented.

Riskbasedstrategiesarealsoreferredtoasevidencebased.Themethodisevergreen.Asevidenceisgained,itprovidesadditionalknowledge
ofthesuitabilityforserviceofanequipmentitem.Theownercontinuallyrefineshisknowledgeoftheriskassociatedwithkeepingthatequipment
inservice.

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Inthisapproach,theownercreatesarelativeriskranking,whichisbenchmarkedtoindustryexperienceandusedforinspectionplanning.Ifthe
riskisnotsufficientlyquantifiedsothatitcanbemanaged,additionalevidenceisobtainedontheequipmentitemuntilitiseitherreplacedorthe
understandingofitsriskofoperationisacceptable.

Ifinitialsemiquantitativeevaluationyieldsunacceptableresultsandupondevelopmentofsubsequentadditionalevidence(thatis,inspection,
operations,or,othertestdata),riskisstillunacceptable,afullyquantitativeconsequenceanalysismaybeappropriate.

Quantitativeanalysesaddressspecificdegradation,suchashydrogencrackingorstresscorrosioncracking.Inthesecases,deterministicor
probabilisticfitnessforservicemethodologiesmayapply.

Definitionofrisk
Threebasicquestionsestablishthebasisfordefiningrisk:

1.Whatcouldgowrong(scenarioorevent)?
2.Howoftenmightithappen(likelihood)?
3.Whataretheconsequences(consequences)?

Risk,initsmostsimpleform,maybecharacterizedastheproductofprobabilityofagivenfailureevent(likelihoodoffailure)andthe
consequencesofthatevent(consequencesoffailure).

Theconsequencescanbeexpressedintermsofthephysicaldamages,productiondelaysorshortfalls,casualties,orthemonetaryequivalents
oftheseitems.Ahighriskactivitytypicallyeitherhasahighprobabilityofoccurring(withlimitedconsequences)oralowprobabilityofoccurring
withsignificantconsequences.

Theleakageofavalvesealisanexampleofhighprobability/lowconsequenceevents.Theruptureofapipelineorpressurevesselresultinginan
explosionandfirewouldbedefinedasalowprobability/highconsequenceevent.

Highprobability/lowconsequenceevents,iftheybecomecommon,canahavehighimpactoneconomicrisk,especiallyifsucheventsincrease
theprobabilityofotherwiselowprobabilitymajorevents.Forexample,aplantthatfrequentlyneedsunscheduledmaintenanceisatagreaterrisk
ofcostlydelaysorlossesthanonethathasaneffectivepreventivemaintenanceprogramandinfrequentunscheduledmaintenanceneeds.

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Application
Fig.1depictsthestepstoapplyingriskrankingtechniques.Itbeginswithadocumentreview,whichdefinesthequalityofthedocumentation
availableandtheinformationneededtodevelopchecklistsandworksheets.Theseworksheetsinclude

Equipmentdatachecklists
Processdatachecklists
Location/hazardoperabilitystudy(Hazop)informationchecklists
Environmentalinformationchecklists
Likelihoodoffailureworksheets
Consequenceoffailureworksheets.

Theriskrankingforeachpieceofequipmentisindividuallyassessedusingtheavailableevidence.

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Estimatingtheconsequenceoffailurevalueisdonebyconsideringaseriesofattributes.Theseattributesincludetheoperatingordesign
pressureandtemperature,thequantityofcontainedfluid,MaterialSafetyDataSheets(MSDS),andthepropertiesofnonprocesshazards(such
assteamandcaustics).

Thesefactorsareusedtodevelopapreliminaryconsequenceindex(PCI),whichisthenmodifiedbyconsideringHazopresults,equipment
location,personnelaccess,andoperatingconditions.Fourcommoncategoriesforconsequenceoffailurerankingare

1.Considerable
2.Serious
3.Some
4.Minorornoimpacttopersonnel.

Inestimatingthelikelihoodoffailurevalue,theownerfirstidentifiesthepotentialdamagemechanisms(thedamagescenarios)andthen
determinesthepotentialmodesoffailurethatmightresultfromthesemechanisms.Adamagerankisthenassignedbasedontheprobabilityof
occurrenceandthefailuremodeifthehazardgoesundetected.Estimationofthelikelihoodoffailurevaluealsotakesintoaccountthefollowing
factors:

Qualityofavailabledocumentation
Hazopresults
Plannedchanges
Transientsandoffnormaloperations
Materialsofconstruction
Equipmenthistory
Processstreamsandcontaminantscomposition.

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AtypicalworksheetforthefinallikelihoodestimationisshowninFig.2.

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Oncebothconsequenceoffailureandlikelihoodoffailurebranchesoftheprocessarecompleted,theproductoftheconsequenceoffailureand
thelikelihoodoffailurevaluesisdetermined.Thisvalueestablishestheriskrankingfortheequipmentitem.Ariskmatrix(Fig.3)isusedtodefine
inspectionrequirementsandintervals.

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Table1showshowinspectionintervalsgenerallycanbesetbasedonthismethodofriskprioritization.

Chemicalplantresults
TEDimplementedapilotprojecttoimplementriskbasedmethodology.

Thescopeoftheinitialpieceofthepilotprojectincludedfourprocessunitsmorethan400vessels.Theprocessunitsassessedwere

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Anacidproductionunit
Anintermediateproductionunit
Asolventproductionunit
Anacetateproductionunit.

Theseunitswererepresentativeofthevesselsintheplantandthepotentialfailuremodesthatcouldbeexpected.

Lessthan5%ofthevesselsassessedinthepilotprojecthadanoverallriskrankingoftwoorless.Ofthemorethan60potentialdamage
mechanismsincludedinthemodel,20wereidentifiedaspresentinthepilotprocessesandfourweredominant.Thedominantmechanismswere:

Pitting,uniform,andcrevicecorrosion
Organicacidcorrosion
Halidestresscorrosioncracking
Erosion.

AreviewoftheRBIimplementationintheacetateproductionunitillustrateshowthecompanywiselyaccessedthescopeofworkthere.Theunit
has25vessels.Ofthese25,priortotheriskbasedassessment,20internalinspectionswereplanned.

Aftertheassessment,itwasdeterminedthatatotalofninevesselsshouldbeinspectedinternallyandthatthismightbereducedtothreevessels
afterthefirstinspectioncycle.Theremainingvesselscouldbeplacedonalongerthan2yearinspectioncyclesupplementedwithanultrasonic
thickness(UT)monitoringprogram.

Afterthefirstinspectioncyclewascompletedandtheinspectionexpectationsverified,itwasactuallydeterminedthateightvesselsrequiredan
internalinspection.Onevessel,withanoverallriskrankingoftwoorless,remainedona2yearcycle.Sevenvessels,withanoverallriskranking
ofthreeormore,wereconsideredforlongerinspectioncycles(between2and8years).

Theremaining17vessels,withoverallriskrankingsofthreeormore,wereconsideredforuptothemaximumintervalof10years.

Inthepast,TEDhashada2yearstateinspectionintervalon3,800vesselsrequiringinternalinspectionandregisteredwiththestate.1

TheseriskbasedassessmentresultswerepresentedtotheTennesseeBoardofBoilerRulesin1997,andarequestwasmadeforexemptionto
thecurrent2yearrequirementforinternalinspectionofvessels.

TheTennesseeBoardofBoilerRulestentativelygrantedthisexemptionwiththeagreementthatadditionalpilotdatawouldbeobtainedanda
followuppresentationwouldbemadethisyear.Also,TEDmustcontinuetoapplythisriskbasedmethodologyandcomplywiththeinspection
guidelinesshowninTable1.Theseadditionalpiloteffortsarecurrentlyunderway.1

Refineryresults
TheTesoroHawaiirefineryisa95,000b/drefinerylocatedontheislandofOahu.TheplanthasbeenimplementinganRBIphilosophyfor3years.
Duringthistime,ithasamassedsignificantevidenceinafocusedmannerconcerningtheservicesuitabilityofcertainequipment.

Alloftheapproximately600vesselsin14processunitswereevaluatedintherefinery.Ateamofengineers,inspectors,andmetallurgistsfrom
bothTesoroandAptechdeterminedtheconsequenceoffailureandlikelihoodoffailureforeachequipment.Theteamthendevelopedariskmatrix
toprovidethebasisforeachequipmentitem`sriskranking.

Anincreaseintheriskrankingnumberresultsinadecreaseintheinspectionfrequency.Theequipmentwiththehighestrisk(lowriskranking
number)hasthefrequencyestablishedonanindividualbasisconsideringallaspectsoftheriskinvolved,withamaximumof3years.For
equipmentfallinginotherregionsofthematrix,thefrequencyisbasedontheunitturnaroundintervals.Forexampleriskrankingnumbersof2,3,
and4werematchedwithturnaroundintervalsof6,9,and10years,respectively.

AthicknessmonitoringdatabaseandtheEquipmentInformationDatabase(EID)areusedtoensurethattheinspectionintervaldoesnotexceed
onehalfoftheestimatedremaininglifewithoutappropriateengineeringjustificationanddocumentation.

Thescopeofinspectionisestablishedinasimilarmanner.Thehighertheriskranking,themoresurfaceareaand/orthenumberofdifferent
locationsweretobeinspected.Forexample,riskrankingnumbersof1,2,3,and4werematchedwithsurfaceareasof100%,50%,25%,and
10%,respectively.

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TheEIDdatabasemanagesandintegratestheriskranking,equipmentdata,inspectionresults,andthicknessdataintoinspectionplans,reports,
andschedules.

Theriskbasedefforthasresultedinaninspectionandmaintenanceprogramwithimprovedperformanceandreliabilityatalowercostandlower
documentedrisk.

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In2years,theprogramhasresultedina20%shifttoalowerlikelihoodoffailure.Thatis,equipmentthataccountedforlikelihoodoffailurevalues
of1and2(higherlikelihoodofoccurrence)haveshiftedtolikelihoodoffailurevaluesof3and4(lowerlikelihoodofoccurrence).Similarly,10%of
theequipmentwithvaluesof1and2(highrisk)havemovedtoValues3and4(Fig.4).

Theplanningandinspectioneffortsresultedinatotalrefineryturnaroundbeingcompletedontimeandwithinbudget.Futureturnaroundsare
expectedtobe25%lowerincostthanhistoricalaveragesasaresultoffocusedinspectionplansandeliminationoftheoverinspectionof
equipment.

Today`sturnaroundplanning
Mostoftoday`sturnaroundsspendmorethanbudgetedanddonotmeetmilestonecompletiondates.Thereasonsforthepoorperformanceare
complex,buttherootofmostproblemsisthebasisuponwhichscopeofworkisestablished.

Today`sturnaroundscopeofworkisagroupingofworkliststhatistypicallygeneratedbyseveralsources:operations,inspection,maintenance,
instrumentation,electrical,mechanical,andengineeringpersonnelaswellascapitalprojects.

Theselistsarecombinedintoascopeofworkandmeasuredagainstabudgetandscheduletarget.Severaliterationsofreview,priority,cost,and
otherissuesareconductedintheguiseofturnaroundmanagement.

Thefactorsemployedtosettlethefinalscopeofworkaretoonumeroustodetailbutthereisfartoolittle,ifany,regardtototalplantreliabilityfor
thetargetedruncycle.

Whatiswrongwiththecurrentwayofdoingbusiness?First,thebasisofestimatinglaborunitstoworkisprimarilyan"experienceunit"
establishedbytheplanners.Atypicalturnaroundworkorderis"open,clean,andinspect"forrepairs.Creatingacriticalpathschedulewiththis
typeofworkrequesthasrearrangedseveralplanningcareers.

The"open,clean,andinspect"itselfisnotthemainculprit,theculpritistheguessinlieuofanengineeringestimate.

Thenegativepropertiesofthissinglelogicestimatearethattheestimateisprimarilyexperiencedbased,historybased,anddoesnotaccountfor
surprises.

Anothernegativefactorintoday`stypicalrefineryturnaroundisthehighturnoverrateofthemanagementteam.Withunitsrunning35years
betweenturnarounds,manyturnaroundmanagersmaynotseemorethanasingleexperience.Thehighturnoverratereducesvaluable

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experience.Theexecutionteam,ontheotherhand,isnormallymorestable.

RBIturnaroundplanning
Thefundamentalsofriskbasedinspectionlendthemselvestoturnaroundscopeoptimization.ThecriticalequipmentidentifiedinRBIbecomesthe
firstlevelofworkscopedevelopment.

Thesecondlevelofworkscopedevelopmentisputtingtheseitemsintoamechanicalplan.Templateplanningallowsownerstocreatea
mechanicalplaninaneducatedandstructuredmanner,withoutguessingattimingandcosts.Itreliesonadatabaseofitemssuchascost,
duration,andscheduleforsimilarequipmenttocreateaturnaroundschedule.

Templateplanningreliesontwoprinciples:

1.Theequipment`sphysicalattributesrequirespecificlaborunits.
2.Theequipment`sconditiondeterminesthecombinationsoflaborunitsneededtorestorereliableoperation.

TemplateplanningforturnaroundscopeofworkusesaprocesscalledMEMO.MEMOstandsfor:

Modesofmaintenance(scheduledorunscheduled)
Elementsofmaintenance(planning,inspection,scheduling,predictivemaintenance,preventivemaintenance,material
management)
Modifiers(skillofcrafts,numberofcrafts,operationofequipment,qualityofmaterials)
Optimizers(riskranking,lifecycleanalysis,processsimulation,templateplanning,technologies).

Estimatedlaborunitsusedintemplateplanningarefromalibraryoftablesthathavebeencreatedfrom20yearsoflaborsamplingontheU.S.
GulfCoast.ThislibraryisreferredtoastheGulfCoastBenchmark.TheapplicationoftemplateplanningoutsidetheGulfCoastismodifiedviaa
productivefactor.

Templateplanningrequiresthatequipmentdatabesetupinahierarchyasfollows:

1.Equipmentserialclass
2.Component
3.Property(attribute).

Thishierarchyprovidesthebasicdatastructurerequiredbytheriskbasedprocess.Thus,templateplanningandriskrankingcanpartner
togethertooptimizetheworkscopebyfocusingonreliabilityfocusmaintenance.

Reference

1.Leonard,C.Ron,andMerrick,EdwinA.,"APilotProjectforDevelopmentandImplementationofRiskBasedInspection
MethodologyforPressureVessels,"PVPVol.360,PressureVesselandPipingCodesandStandards,ASME,BookNo.
H0011501998,p.5557.

TheAuthors
EdMerrickisdirectorofthepetroleumandchemicalbusinessunitforAptechEngineeringServicesInc.HehasworkedatAptechformorethan
10years.Merrickspecializesinfindingpracticalsolutionstomechanicalintegrityproblemsandintheapplicationofrisktechnology.Formerly,he
spent16yearswiththeTennesseeValleyAuthorityworkingonmechanicalintegrityissuesforthefossilandnuclearpowerindustry.Heholdsa
mastersdegreefromtheUniversityofTennessee,Knoxville,inmaterialsscienceandabachelorsdegreeinmechanicalengineeringfrom
VanderbiltUniversity,Nashville.

C.RonLeonardisanengineeringassociateandgroupleaderforthecompliancetechnologyandinspectiongroupinthereliabilitytechnology
departmentofEastmanChemicalCo.HehasbeenwithEastmanfor29years.Currently,Leonardischairmanoftheinspectionandmaintenance
taskgroupoftheChemicalManufacturersAssociation.HeparticipatesintheAmericanSocietyofMechanicalEngineersCodesandStandards
Committees.LeonardholdsaBSinmechanicalengineeringfromVirginiaTech,Blacksburg,Va.,andanMBAfromtheUniversityofTennessee,
Knoxville.

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