LAB REPORT 1: INVESTIGATING CHANGES IN LAND USE

AND POPULATION DYNAMICS FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY

NEW JERSEY

INTRODUCTION

When it comes down to it, there are two main types of land use change; human-caused

changes (direct anthropogenic) and indirect changes. Human-caused changes would include;

deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, agriculture, and urbanization (Environmental

Literacy Council, 2015). Indirect changes consist of alterations in climate and carbon dioxide

concentrations that alter vegetation. Removing forests and planting crops causes the amount

of transpiration that occurs to decrease, which can result in warmer temperatures in the area.

If those crops, however, were irrigated, then more transpiration would occur and the

atmosphere would be more cool and moist. The increase in transpiration may also lead to an

alteration in precipitation and cloud cover (Environmental Literacy Council, 2015). The increase

of people in an urban area can also affect the climate. Usually, in urban areas, the climate is

warmer due to the amount of people, the dark pavement and roofing material that absorb

sunlight, which is called the urban heat island effect.

The indirect changes of climate can switch around land use, by the high mean annual

temperatures, different precipitation patterns, and more constant extreme weather events.

Due to this change, it forces many species of vegetation to move to higher latitudes and

longitudes. Vegetation variability can decrease due to the climate being more drastic, the
growing season could be extended, allowing for multiple cropping cycles during the same

season, or increase the amount of land used for agriculture (Environmental Literacy Council,

2015).

The conversion of land from a natural to a developed or disturbed condition is well

documented as causing significant direct as well as secondary and cumulative environmental

impacts (NJDEP, 2013). Over the course of 20 years, there has been scientific data that has

connected pavement, parking lots, any impervious cover, to the changes in hydrology, water

quality, biodiversity, and habitat structure of aquatic systems. As land use increases, the water

quality responds with a decreasing trend. This trend in water quality is also seen with

agricultural and urban and suburban development (NJDEP, 2013). This study also showed that

from 1986-2007, the amount of developed land went from 22% to 28%, barren land stayed

constant at 1%, agricultural land decreased from 14% to 10%, forests also decreased from 30%

to 28%, wetlands decreased from 19% to 18% and final the amount of water increased from

14% to 15%. In another study conducted by Rutgers University Center for Remote Sensing and

Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), they collected data from a satellite from 1972 to 2001. Over the

course of this 29-year period, CRSSA concluded that more than 600,000 acres of land were

converted to developed land. This large increase in developed land accounts for about 68% of

the total developed land in New Jersey. On a side-note, during this 29-year period, the

population was estimated at a growth of 16% (NJDEP, 2013).

 BACKGROUND

The change in land use and population sizes can significantly alter the environment.

Physical development will always produce an environmental impact, but the degree of that

impact depends on the type of development and what it entails. Construction of pavements

and buildings can alter how much water is being infiltrated and can increase surface run-off.

This is especially detrimental to groundwater and downstream areas (McBride). Also when

building, it is possible to have the existing vegetation removed, which then could result in an

increase of soil erosion, and stream sedimentation, which is an excess of sediments entering

the stream due to human activity. Some examples of human alteration of sediment in a stream

include; urbanization, construction, row cropping, overgrazing and logging to name a few

(Turner). Removing vegetation can also leave the surrounding environment exposed to the

wind and the sun that it was not exposed to before. Disturbing land can impact the wildlife in

terms of; habitat loss, fragmentation, and introduction to invasive species, which can lead to a

decrease in biodiversity and permanent destruction of New Jerseys ecosystems (NJDEP, 2013).

Population sizes and distribution greatly affect an ecosystems sustainability. As the

population on Earth continues to increase, arable land, access to water, fisheries and forests

will become more limited. During the latter part of the twentieth century, there was a

decrease in farmland, which brought about the perspective that, if the population does follow a

positive trend, how will global food production be able to supply nourishment to the high

demands? As for the global requirement for water, consumption inflated six fold from 1900-

1995, which was more than twice the rate of population growth (Hunter, 2000). The boost in
food production has produced the increase of yields of fertile land and growth in marginal areas

using industrial agriculture. Industrial agriculture is the production of livestock and crops, using

innovative agricultural methods, farming methods and genetic technology to achieve economic

scales of production (New World Encyclopedia, 2014). On the other hand, the inappropriate

use of chemicals, extensive irrigation and machinery have led to the deterioration of land,

which is left to susceptibility to wind and water erosion and water resources (Population

Reference Bureau). When farmland broadens toward fragile land (drylands, highlands, and

forests) to keep up with global and local food demand, it can lead to deforestation, erosion, and

desertification of the newly expanded land area.

METHODOLOGY

The first step in this exercise was to create a map, using ARCMAP, that showed the

location of the county being studied in New Jersey. This layer was found in the faculty course

files, under the Environmental Issues folder. Next, four land cover maps of the years; 1992,

2001, 2006 and 2011, were created also using ARCMAP. The data used to make these maps is

originally from the National Land Cover Database. Afterward, changes in land cover for; 1992-

2001, 2001-2006, 2001-2006, and 2006-2011 time periods was performed. The data for the

changes in land cover can also be found from the National Land Cover Database. To make

working with these values of land cover and change in land use easier, the data was turned into

percentages by using the dissolve tool in ARCMAP. Here, the area was calculated in kilometers

squared and then calculated as a percent by multiplying 100 times the individual areas and

dividing by the total area of Cape May County. Then from there in Microsoft Excel, the data for
each land cover type and change in land cover, were organized and put into pivot table formats.

Regarding the change in land use, some were taken out of the final product because they did

not represent a change in land use (i.e. open water to open water). Also, any land use that was

denoted by less than 1.5%, was discarded from the data values. Finally, population changes

from; 1992-2001, 2001-2006, and 2006-2001 for Cape May County were produced. The data

used to find these values can be found on the U.S. Census Bureau website. For the land cover

types and land cover changes, the exceptionally small values were removed from the final data

observations.

RESULTS
In 1992, (figure 2), the total land area of Cape May County was 1606 square kilometers.

This map consisted of the land covers; Bare Rock/Sand/Clay (0.3%),

Commercial/Industrial/Transportation (1%), Deciduous Forest (4%), Emergent Herbaceous

Wetlands (10%), Evergreen Forest (3%), High Intensity Residential (1%), Low Intensity

Residential (3%), Mixed Forest (10%), Open Water (60%), Pasture/Hay (2%), Quarries/Strip

Mines/Gravel Pits (0.3%), Row Crops (2%), Transitional Barren (0.01%), Urban/Recreational

Grasses (0.61%) and Woody Wetlands (4%).

In 2001, the land cover for Cape May County (figure 3) consisted of; Barren Land (1%),

Cultivated Crops (2%), Deciduous Forest (4%), Developed, High Intensity (1.2%), Developed,

Medium Intensity (2%), Developed, Low Intensity (3%), Developed, Open Space (4%), Emergent

Herbaceous Wetlands (11%), Evergreen Forest (0.7%), Hay/Pasture (0.3%), Herbaceous (0.2%),
Mixed Forest (1.2 %), Open Water (59%), Shrub/Scrub (0.7%) and Woody Wetlands (11%).

Other land cover types were present, but those values were extremely minuscule, so they have

been removed from the final data observations.

In (figure 4), the land cover for 2006 is represented. Here, the total land area of Cape

May County was 716 square kilometers. It is unknown exactly why the land area decreased to

this value, so it is important to keep in mind the land cover percentages are based upon a total

land area of 716 instead of the 1606 square kilometers. The land cover types include; Barren

Land (2%), Cultivated Crops (3.4%), Deciduous Forest (8%), Developed, High Intensity (3%),

Developed, Low Intensity (6%), Developed, Medium Intensity (4%), Developed, Open Space

(9%), Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands (23%), Evergreen Forest (2%), Hay/Pasture (0.6%),

Herbaceous (0.4%), Mixed Forest (3%), Open Water (11%), Shrub/Scrub (1.5%), and Woody

Wetlands (25%).

In (figure 5), the 2011 land cover for Cape May County is shown on the map. The land

cover types consist of; Barren Land (1%), Cultivated Crops (2%), Deciduous Forest (4%),

Developed, High Intensity (1.3 %), Developed, Low Intensity (3%), Developed, Medium Intensity

(2%), Developed, Open Space (4%), Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands (11%), Evergreen Forest

(0.7 %), Hay/Pasture (.3%), Herbaceous (0.2%), Mixed Forest (2%), Open Water (59%),

Shrub/Scrub (0.7%), and Woody Wetlands (0.7%).

In the Land cover change from 1992 to 2001 (figure 6), Open Water stayed consistent at

58%. The Urban land areas were (7%), Barren (0.9%), Forest (15%), Agriculture (4%), Wetlands

(14%), Open Water to Urban (0.02%), Open Water to Barren (0.21%), Open Water to
Agriculture (0.03%), Open Water to Wetlands (0.4%), Barren to Open Water (0.03%), Open

Water to Urban (0.02%), Open Water to Barren (0.21%), Open Water to Agriculture (0.03%),

Open Water to Wetlands (0.4%), Barren to Open Water (0.03%), Forest to Barren (0.02%),

Forest to Agriculture (0.13%), Forest to Wetlands (0.63%), Agriculture to Open Water (0.04%),

Agriculture to Urban (0.02%), Agriculture to Barren (0.02%), Agriculture to Forest (0.02%),

Wetlands to Open Water (0.05%). There were other land cover changes but were extremely

small values, so they were not discussed in this section.

During 2001 to 2006 in Cape May County (figure 7), 99.5% of the total land cover area

was unchanged. The following land cover changes were the resulting percentages; Unclassified

to Mixed Forest (0.13%), Open Water to Developed, Open Space (0.04%), Open Water to

Developed, Low Intensity (0.04%), Open Water to Developed, Medium Intensity (0.13%), Open

Water to Developed, High Intensity (0.06%), Open Water to Pasture/Hay (0.07%), Developed,

Open Space to Unclassified (0.01%), and Developed, Low Intensity to Grassland/Herbaceous

(0.02%). As previously in the other land cover year and land cover changes, the very small land

cover change values have been removed and did not affect the total land cover area.

From the time period of 2001 to 2011 (figure 8), the majority of the land cover types

were not transitioned into a different land type; Open Water (59%), Barren Land (1%),

Developed, Open Space (4%), Developed, Low Intensity (2.5%), Developed, Medium Intensity

(2%), Developed, High Intensity (1.2%), Deciduous Forest (3.5%), Evergreen Forest (0.7%),

Shrub/Scrub (0.6%), Mixed Forest (1.5%), Grassland/Herbaceous (0.2%), Pasture/Hay (0.3%),

Cultivated Crops (1.5%), Woody Wetlands (11.1%), and Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands

(11.1%), The land cover types that did in fact change were; Open Water to Barren Land (0.2%),
Open Water to Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands (0.02%), Developed, Open Space to Developed,

Low Intensity (0.03%), Developed, Open Space to Developed, Medium Intensity (0.13%).

For the final change in land cover type for Cape May County from 2006 to 2011 (figure

9), there was once again very little change. Open Water was (59%), Developed, Open Space

(4%), Developed, Medium Intensity (2%), Developed, High Intensity (1.3%), Barren Land (0.9%),

Deciduous Forest (4%), Evergreen Forest (0.7%), Mixed Forest (2%), Shrub/Scrub (0.7%),

Grassland/Herbaceous (0.7%), Pasture/Hay (0.23%), Cultivated Crops (2%), Woody Wetlands

(11.1%), Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands (11%).

Figure 1: Map representing the location of Cape May
County in New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from
the National Land Cover Database.
Figure 2: Map representing land cover in 1992 of Cape May County
in New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from the National
Land Cover Database.
Figure 3: Map representing land cover in 2001 of Cape May County in New
Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from the National Land Cover
Database.
Figure 4: Map representing land cover in 2006 of Cape May County in
New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from the National Land
Cover Database.
Figure 5: Map representing land cover in 2011 of Cape May County in
New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from the National Land
Cover Database.
Figure 6: Map representing change in land cover from 1992-2001
in Cape May County in New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained
from the National Land Cover Database.
Figure 7: Map representing change in land cover from 2001-2006
in Cape May County in New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained
from the National Land Cover Database.
Figure 8: Map representing change in land cover from 2001-2011 in Cape
May County in New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from the National
Land Cover Database.
Figure 9: Map representing change in land cover from 2006-2011 in
Cape May County in New Jersey. Land Cover layer was obtained from
the National Land Cover Database.
Figure 10: Graph representing population changes from 1992-2011 in Cape
May County in New Jersey. Population data was obtained from the US Census
Bureau (https://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/index.html).
DISCUSSION

In New Jersey, developed land increased from 1.20 million acres in 1984 to 1.43 million

acres in 1995, having developed land represent 30% of the total land area. On an annual trend

during this period, 20,200 acres of land was developed. During 1995, 80% of the developed

land was categorized for suburban growth or moderate intensity development (Lathrop, 2000).

Also, another significant change was in bare land from 1987 to 1995. Bare land is produced due

to sand mining, gravel mining or land clearing. During that time span, the bare land had

increased to 7,000 acres. With the surge in development and land clearing, forests, farmland

and wetlands declined. On a national level, a land cover change analysis was generated by the

USGS for the United States. The results that came from this study indicated that about 97% of

the land cover for the U.S. remained consistent from 1992-2001, leaving 3% of the total land

cover to be transformed. The percentage of land cover change consisted of; forest,

grass/shrub, and agriculture (Fry, Coan, Homer, Meyer and Wickham, 2009). This USGS report

also identified national net losses in; forest and agriculture and net gains of; barren, water,

wetlands, urban and grass/shrub. Looking back at the change in Cape May County from 1992-

2001 (figure 6), the amount of barren land increased, forest land cover decreased 2%, wetlands

showed a declining trend of 4%, open water stayed around the same percentage, urban

development increased, and agricultural land cover (row crops, cultivated crops, and

pasture/hay) reduced by 2%.

An important factor of land use and land cover is how much developed land is present.

Developed land is comprised of land with houses, buildings, roads, and other types of surfaces
that do not allow rainfall to infiltrate the ground. Barren land and land without vegetation

cover, is also part of the developed land category (NJDEP, 2013). The amount of developed

land in the state of New Jersey increases relative with the growth of the population.

Urbanization also costs an area of their agricultural land, wetlands, and forests. During 1995 to

2002 in New Jersey, this was also the case. (Hasse and Lathrop, 2010). By 2007, urban land

cover surpassed the amount of forest cover and loss of forest was occurring at a rate of 8,490

acres per year.

Population for Cape May County, New Jersey over the course of the time period 1992 to

2011 (figure 10), has stayed around similar values. In 1992, the population was 98,121 and in

2001, it was 102,023, producing a difference of 3,902 people. From 2001 to 2006 (98,269

people) the change in population was 3,754 people. Finally, from 2006 to 2011 (97,253

people), the difference in a number of people was 1,008. For Cape May County, the largest

population increases occurred between 1970 to 1980, which was 14 times more than the state

average. Since 2000, Cape May Countys population has decreased by 5,725 people or 5.6 %,

while New Jerseys population increased by 4.8% (Dugan and Ferdetta, 2013). As of the 2010

Census, the population of Cape May County was 97,265, the most recent population estimate

for 2012 was 96,304, representing a 1% loss in population. This demonstrates a continuing

trend in population loss for Cape May County, which experienced an approximately 6% loss in

population from 2000 to 2010, even while other South Jersey Counties were experiencing

population growth (Departments at Rutgers-Camden).

There are multiple factors that contribute to the population trends in Cape May County,

New Jersey. One of the first factors is the housing market increase during the beginning of the
2000s, which lead to people building bigger summer homes, instead of petite main family

houses. Along the lines of owning summer homes, most of the people who have them, do not

have the desire to relocate to the vacation property. The County of Cape May, like many shore

counties, are very dependent on the income made during the summer months and brings in a

lot of people. This trend leaves a much smaller population in the colder months. In addition,

there is a lack of well-paying jobs, which dictates the demographic of the population as well as

being able to afford the houses in Cape May County (Departments at Rutgers-Camden). The

county of Cape Mays population is predicted to grow by 1,335 people from 2010 to 2020 with

a total population of 98,600 people. The population growth rate is projected to be around a

positive 1.4%, which will be lower than New Jerseys growth rate of 5.1% (Dugan and Ferdetta,

2013).

CONCLUSIONS

All in all, Cape May County demonstrated small amounts of transition between land

covers. Over the course of time from 1992 to 2011, open ocean was relatively consistent

staying around 58-60%, barren land increased to around 1%, developed land increased

immensely and forest areas also decreased. That previous trend follows a similar national trend

from a report written by the USGS. Out of the many counties in New Jersey, Cape May was one

of the few who had the smallest amount of land cover change. This could be based upon the

fact of its location (how far south it is), what its economy is based upon and the amount of

people who reside there (dependent on the time of year) (Departments at Rutgers-Camden).
 There are many ill side effects to land use change and population growth. A state or a

country having so much developed land, can cause groundwater and surface water to decline in

quality as well as increase the amount of runoff area downhill receives (NJDEP, 2013). It was

also quite interesting to find that when a population rises, in the beginning, the agricultural

land area decreases, which can be seen in (figure 8 and figure 10). However, once some time

passes, the amount of agricultural land area increases (figure 9 and figure 10) (Hunter, 2000).

Realizing the correlation between change in land use and the behavior of a population can help

decrease the severity of environmental impacts and lead to making more environmentally

aware decisions.
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