POLTIKA

C R I T I C A L I S S U E S O F P H I L I P P I N E P O L I T Y 2nd QUARTER

Public Opinion Surveys: The Legislative: Foreign Affairs Update:

Presidential, and Vice Legislative Priorities, Enhanced Defense
Presidential Preferences, Tops 5 Proposed Measures and Cooperation Agreement:
Officials Performance, Trust and Resolutions of both House Manilas Most Credible
Satisfaction Ratings and Congress Deterrent to China
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I. Public Opinion Surveys

Senator Grace Poe took the top spot from Vice President Jejomar Binay in the latest Pulse Asia Ulat ng
Bayan Report on Presidential Preference for the May 2016 Elections. From only 14% percent in the March
2015 survey, preference for her has more than doubled to 30% in the latest one. On the other hand, prefer-
ence for VP Binay has dropped from 29% in the previous survey to 22% in the latest.

The survey results also showed three other individuals with double-digit presidential voter preferences,
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (15%), Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary
Manuel A. Roxas II (10%), and former President and incumbent Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada (10%).

On the other hand, single-digit figures are recorded for Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (6%), Senator
Alan Peter Cayetano (2%), and former Senator Panfilo Ping M. Lacson (2%). The survey also found that
there was virtually no support for the probable presidential bids of former Presidential Commission on
Good Government (PCGG) Chairperson Camilo Sabio and OFW Party-List Representative Roy Seeres.

Presidential Preference

For Sen. Poe, this is the highest Presidential Preference rating she has received since this survey began in
March 2014, while for VP Binay, who was once preferred by 41%, this is the lowest rating he has received
so far.

From the perspective of a Grace Poe supporter, one may look at the results of this survey as the turning
point at which Poe breaks away from a tumbling VP Binay. After all, Sen. Poes popularity is also reflected
in her rankings in both Pulse Asias and the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Vice-Presidential Preference
2016 surveys.

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 Vice-Presidential Preference

Her popularity is also seen in her performance in Pulse Asias Senatorial Performance Survey, where she
received the highest approval rating (93%) among the Senators included in the survey.

Source: Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan Report

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Furthermore, this all happened while her critics challenged her citizenship and qualifications to run for
higher office-undoubtedly the first of many challenges she will inevitably face on the way to the 2016
campaign. However, looking back at her soaring ratings and the failed attack on her citizenship, it seems
that the issue, as it was presented, made her a martyr and may have even boosted her support in the
latest survey.

On the other hand, from the perspective of a supporter of VP Binays bid for the Presidency, one may pro-
bably focusing on his Satisfaction, Trust and Performance ratings which, despite the continuous barrage of
corruption allegations on his family and him, are now higher than President Aquinos or any other of the
top national officials for that matter.

Pulse Asia Top 5 Officials Performance Ratings

Pulse Asia Top 5 Officials Trust Ratings

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 SWS Top 5 Officials Satisfaction Ratings

In the latest Pulse Asia surveys, VP Binay saw his performance rating increase from 46% in March to 58%,
while his trust increased by 15 points from 42% to 57%. His satisfaction ratings, too, increased from 58%
to 64%.

These improvements in ratings came despite a probe by the Office of the Ombudsman into the alleged
overpricing of the Makati City Hall Building II involving the Binay family and other Makati City government
officials and some private contractors, as well as the decision of the Court of Appeals (CA) to grant a peti-
tion filed by the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) to freeze the bank accounts of the Vice-President
and his family in connection with the investigations done by the Office of the Ombudsman.

VP Binays ratings also bested the latest ratings of President Aquino, who also made double digit increases
in his performance, trust and satisfaction ratings. From a record low of 38% in March, President Aquino
improved his performance rating by 16 percentage points to 54%, while his trust ratings improved by 14
percentage points from 36% to 50%, and his satisfaction ratings increased by 10 percentage points from
47% to 57%. All this in just a few months after his mishandling of the failed anti-terrorism operation in
Mamasapano, Maguindanao, which had led to the deaths of 44 police officers of the PNP Special Action
Force (SAF).

What This Means For 2016

The May 2016 national elections are less than a year away, but the mud-slinging and campaigning that
accompany a Presidential election are well under way. Poe has maintained her grip on the top spot in the
2016 Vice Presidential survey, and also taking the lead in the Presidential Preference survey. She has yet
to formally announce her candidacy for higher office, but the attacks have already begun and will only
intensify as her plans become clearer.

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VP Binay too has been on the receiving end of attacks for some time now. It has taken its toll on
his once shoo-in status as the next President of the Philippines. His chances at higher office now
hinge on how he and his team handle these attacks as there is no sign that these issues will fade.
Although VP Binay may be down now, his latest improved performance, trust and satisfaction rat-
ings speak of his political resilience.

While the focus now is on Poe and Binay, President Aquino still plays a role in how things develop.
Into his last year in office, President Aquino is focused on maintaining influence, not only in the
form of political capital to push his administrations last few legacy reforms, but also with the pub-
lic, whom he hopes to sway towards a candidate of his endorsement come 2016. His comeback in
the polls from the Mamasamapano incident bode well his former running mate, current DILG Sec-
retary Mar Roxas, who finds himself in 5th behind Poe, Binay, Davao Mayor Duterte, Manila Mayor
and Former President Joseph Estrada, despite more than doubling his presidential preference num-
bers in the latest Pulse Asia survey. But on the other hand, Sec. Roxas finds himself in 3rd, behind
Poe and Binay, in the SWS survey on the three best leaders to succeed President Aquno in 2016.

Much can happen before the filing of candidacy in October of this year. Decisions have to be made,
unlikely alliances could emerge and unexpected endorsements could be made.

Poe must decide if she wants to run for the Presidency now, as a neophyte Senator, or to go with a
sure thing in the Vice Presidency in 2016 and hope her popularity stays until the next Presidential
elections six years down the road. Further, she has to find a way to maintain her momentum as
the elections draw near.

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 VP Binay has shown is resilience, but he has to find a way to bounce back in Presidential Prefer-
ence race. Teaming up with Duterte as his VP could bring a much needed sense of order and disci-
pline to his ticket, but the latter has reportedly already thumbed down such a tandem.

Mar Roxas fate, it seems, is tied to that of his endorser, President Aquino, since his the decisions
he has made as a member of the cabinet do not seem to be forwarding his cause. Aquino will have
to keep his ratings up as his term draws to an end, something presidents before him have had
trouble doing.

These are among the emerging scenarios that could play out between now and 2016 that could
greatly affect who the President of the Philippines will be.

II. The LEGISLATIVE

With the 2016 elections drawing near, Congress is pressed for time to pass significant legislations
that, according to House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, Jr., are aimed to achieve lasting peace, eco-
nomic growth and trade development, and to promote good governance, among others.

Also included in the legislative priorities of the House of Representatives are bills that encompass
national security, strengthening the education sector, expanding access to health services, im-
proving land productivity, achieving sustainable energy, as well as adapting measures that tackle
climate change.

Despite the extensive discussions on the Bangsamoro Basic Law that took place within the 6-week
legislative window between May and June, Congress failed to approve the priority bill before the
sine die adjournment. The measure remains in the period of interpellations. However, Senate Presi-
dent Franklin Drilon reiterated that once it has been approved by the House, it would be of utmost
priority in the Senate.

Though the House may have failed to approve their top priority, in his speech before the adjourn-
ment of the 2nd Regular Session, House Speaker Sonny Belmonte said the chambers work resulted
in 35 Republic Acts, 541 measures passed on third reading, 24 approved on second reading and
215 adopted resolutions, among them the proposed Tax Incentives Management and Transparency
Act (TIMTA) that would ensure transparency in the management and accounting of tax incentives
granted to government agencies and state and private corporations; the Philippine Competition
Act, which would protect businesses and consumers from monopolistic business activities and un-
fair trade and market practices; and the Free Public Wi-Fi Act, which mandates free Internet access
in public places.

In the same period, the Senate approved a total of 66 proposed measures and adopted 46 resolu-
tions. Among the key economic and trade measures include the amendments to the Cabotage Law
to lower inter-island shipping costs, the bill creating the new Department of Information and Com-
munications Technology (DICT), and the TIMTA.

When Congress returns on July 27, it will be for the commencement of the 3rd Regular Session
and the last State of the Nation Address of President Aquino. Upon resumption of Congress, both
Chambers have agreed to continue to push the passage of priority measures including the bill

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on the Rationalization of Fiscal Incentives, the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (CMTA), the
amendments to the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Law and the amendments to the Bangko Sentral
ng Pilipinas (BSP) Charter, the Filipino Identification Act, and the Philippine Maritime Zones Act.

At the House of Representatives, also included in the priority list is the Rationalization of the Mi-
ning Revenue or Excise Tax on Mining, proposed amendments to the economic provisions of the
Constitution, and the Electric Power Industry (EPIRA) Law, the proposed amendment to the Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Policy, the Fisheries Code, and the National Land Use Policy.

Bills for Committee Approval are the Barangay Officials Welfare and Incentives Act, the amendments
to the BSP Charter, and the Sangguniang Kabataan Reform bill while the bill establishing the emer-
gency Management Agency is still under deliberation by its respective committee.

Meanwhile, the proposed Land Administration Reform bill, the Regulation of Water Utilities, the
National Food Authority Reform Act, and the proposed creation of the DICT have all been referred
to the Committee on Appropriations for their respective funding provisions.

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III. Foreign Affairs Update

Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement: Manilas Most Credible Deterrent to China

By Ernest Z. Bower*

The Philippines most credible deterrent to Chinas stepped-up unilateral actions in the South
China Sea is under the pen of Maria Lourdes Sereno, the chief justice of the Philippine Supreme
Court. Sereno has been tasked with writing the decision of the court on whether the U.S.-Philip-
pines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which would involve stationing American
troops, planes, and ships in the country on a rotating basis, is constitutional. The agreement
would also help the Philippines boost its maritime security through closer cooperation with the
U.S. military.

Philippine defense secretary Voltaire Gazmin and U.S. ambassador to the Philippines Philip Gold-
berg signed the EDCA last April, shortly before President Barack Obama arrived for a state visit to
the Philippines. The administration of President Benigno Aquino III has insisted that the EDCA is
an executive agreement that merely raises the scope of, and therefore falls within legal bounda-
ries of, the two countries 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. However, a group of Philippine lawmakers,
academics, activists, and former lawmakers have charged that the agreement amounts to a treaty
and will require separate ratification by the Philippine senate.

Filipinos have become increasingly concerned about Chinas continuing reclamation in the dispu-
ted waters of the Spratly Islands and the threats those actions pose to the Philippines sovereign
interests. Still, many have not connected the dots on the urgent need to move ahead with the
EDCA, preferably before Obama visits the Philippines to attend this years Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation Leaders Summit in November.

The EDCA has languished in the docket for nearly a year. A survey conducted by the indepen-
dent pollster Social Weather Stations and commissioned by the Philippine Department of Foreign
Affairs in February 2014 shows that an overwhelming 81 percent of Filipinos surveyed support
Aquinos decision to seek legal clarity on Chinas claims in the South China Sea at the United Na-
tions Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. 80 percent surveyed also believe that Manila
should request the assistance of other countries to balance Chinas growing military muscle in
the disputed sea.

As China continues to destroy the reefs around waters controlled by the Philippines and dredges
sand to turn rocks into islands with military features, including runways, ports, and landing areas,
Filipino anxiety has rightly risen. If voters understand more clearly the link between the Supreme
Courts inaction and the inability to establish an enduring and credible deterrent to Chinas efforts
to change facts on the seas, there will be more voices asking the court to issue a ruling as early
as possible.

The Supreme Court is now expected to rule on the constitutionality of the EDCA in July, and Gaz-
min said on May 26, prior to his meeting with U.S. defense secretary Ashton Carter in Hawaii, that
he expects a favorable verdict.

Aquino will likely leave behind a strong legacy of working to protect the sovereignty of the Philip-
pines. But he and his team must act with urgency to follow through on the EDCA to strengthen the
Philippines national defense and increase the capability of the armed forces to deal with external
security threats, ranging from territorial disputes to natural disasters.

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Philippine citizens should speak out with a nation-unifying sense of urgency to encourage the court
to make its decision so that the Aquino administration can move ahead with necessary actions to
enact the EDCA.

If the EDCA is in place before Obama arrives in November, one can expect a historic visit with a
robust set of deliverables focused on strong U.S. investments in enhancing Philippine defense ca-
pabilities at eight military facilities across the Philippines over the next 10 years. These investments
will be fueled by funds that Senator John McCain, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee,
has asked to be earmarked for enhanced U.S. defense spending in Asia. In addition, passing the
EDCA will provide a platform for other countries interested in supporting the Philippines, such as
Japan and Australia, to invest in increased defense and maritime awareness capabilities alongside
the Philippine and the U.S. militaries.

This scenario will also potentially pave the way for Obama to visit areas outside of Manila during
his trip, where he can meet with local leaders who will benefit from planned infrastructure invest-
ments under the EDCA and beefed-up local capacity to respond to natural disasters and provide
home-grown humanitarian assistance to people in need.

Equally important, passing the EDCA will allow the two governments to move on to address the
next pressing issue in U.S.-Philippines relationswhat many Filipinos see as the lack of clarity in
the U.S. commitment to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty. Obama, who declared
last year in Manila that the United States has an ironclad commitment to the Philippines, will be
more likely to clarify the scope of U.S. commitment if Washington perceives a strong commitment to
partnership from Manila. Such a pledge could reasonably extend the United States commitment to
come to the defense of Philippine forces as well as ships and aircraft that are attacked in disputed
waters.

However, if the Supreme Court does not move expeditiously on the EDCA and the agreement is not
in place before Obamas visit, the White House will have to ask whether the Philippines is serious
about implementing its treaty alliance with the United States. Obama will also be more constrained
in his ability to talk about potential U.S. investments in the Philippines defense modernization ef-
forts, thereby sending signals to Beijing of Manilas uncertainty even as Filipinos will be preparing
to head into a national transition that will elect a new president to replace Aquino in May 2016.

The national interests of the Philippines depend on the actions of Justice Sereno. She has the
opportunity to lead the Supreme Court in contributing to Aquinos efforts to defend Philippine
sovereignty and strengthen the countrys national defense capabilities and international security
partnerships for generations to come.

* The following is an article written by Ernest Z. Bower and published in cogitASIA, a blog of the CSIS
Asia Program. Mr. Ernest Z. Bower is a senior adviser and holds the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia
Studies at CSIS. Follow him on twitter @BowerCSIS.

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