POLTIKA

3rd QUARTER

CRITICAL ISSUES OF PHILIPPINE POLITY OCTOBER 2015

Public Opinion Surveys: The Legislative: Governance Studies:

Presidential, and Vice Legislative Updates on Budget Transparency in
Presidential Preferences, and Bangsamoro Basic Law, ASEAN, ICT ranking and
Other Surveys 2016 National Budget and EDCA
the Priority Measures
CONTENTS

Presidential Vice Other Legislative Governance

Candidates Presidential Surveys Updates Studies
Candidates
p.4 p.13 p.14 p.15
p.10

ON THE COVER & CONTENTS

Picture credits to the following: pinoywords.
wordpress.com; suroyniandak.wordpress.com;
lifeofatechnophile.blogspot.com; aletterwriter.
com; nursehussein.com; asiafounsdation.org
 POLTIKA
I. Election Season Approaches

As the deadline for the filing of candidacy fast approaches, the president-vice-president tandems running in
the May 2016 national elections are starting to become clearer.

Within days of resigning from the Aquino cabinet in late June, Vice President Jejomar Binay formally declared
his bid for the presidency. In a press briefing at his official residencethe Coconut Palace in ManilaBinay
announced his plans for 2016 but not before taking a swipe at the current government leadership for its at-
tacks on him and his family. Since Binay declared his presidential bid last year, he and his family have been
the subject of numerous accusations, including of rigging multi-million peso government contracts. Binays
party, the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), has formally offered Senator Gregorio Gringo Honasan the spot
as Binays running mate.

Former Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Manuel Mar Roxas II, on the other
hand, formally accepted the Liberal Partys nomination as its standard bearer. He was officially endorsed by
President Benigno Aquino III in the presence of their political allies at the Club Filipino on July 31. Initially,
the LP had hoped that Sen. Grace Poe would agree to share his ticket. But after talks fell through with Poe,
Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo was offered the position. After earlier expressing reluctance to run for vice
president, she eventually accepted. Rep. Robredo said she decided to accept the LPs offer because she was
certain her late husband, LP stalwart and DILG Secretary Jesse Robredo, would have agreed to sacrifice anything
for the country.

The latest to officially announce a bid for the presidency was Grace Poe. A neophyte senator, she surprised
many when she came out on top of the 2013 senatorial race. The announcement of her 2016 plans in front of
thousands of her supports, did not come as a surprise since clamor for her to run had steadily been increasing.
She had already begun meeting with various political groups in the lead-up to her announcement. Her running
mate: fellow senator Francis Chiz Escudero. Escudero was the campaign spokesperson during the presiden-
tial campaign of Poes father Fernando Poe, Jr. during the 2004 national elections and he likewise played a key
role in her 2013 senatorial campaign.

Others have also declared their intentions to run for higher office in 2016. Incumbent Senators Allan Peter
Cayetano and Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos have both announced their bids for the vice presidency. Support-
ers of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte wait for his decision on whether he will run for President.

With the lineup of candidates quickly taking shape, the public opinion surveys become all the more impor-
tant as they give insight into how the 2016 elections could unfold.

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 3

POLTIKA
I. Presidential Candidates

Grace Poe
Grace Poe continues to top presidential preference surveys of polling bodies Pulse Asia and Social Weather
Stations (SWS). According to Pulse Asias Ulat ng Bayan Survey on the May 2016 Elections, Grace Poe would be
elected president by 26% of Filipinos if the elections were held during the survey period. Though she came out
on top of the survey, her latest preference rate was actually 4 points less than her rating in June.

Poe gained support and saw her ratings rise early on because of her image as kind, sincere, and indepen-
dent. This was perhaps highlighted by her highly critical comments earlier this year that zeroed in on the
Presidents seeming inability to accept full responsibility for the debacle at Mamasapano. For many, this was
enough to make up for her lack of government experience. In the June survey, Poes preference rating of 30%
was enough to overtake Binays chances in the polls.

4 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

 Since then, however, several issues against her have come up, including questions regarding her citizenship
and her residency when she ran for the Senate in 2013. In addition, Poe also came to the defense of influential
religious group Iglesia Ni Cristo when thousands of INC members protested along Metro Manilas main thor-
oughfare against a Department of Justice investigation into some of its members. INC, which claims to have
up to 1.37 million Filipino members, representing around 2.6% of the voting population, votes as a bloc. This
practice traditionally prompts many candidates to court them during election season. Poe showed she was no
different. These factors, in addition to the perception of her increased politicking leading up to her announce-
ment, may have also turned some potential voters off.

Her most recent drop in the polls might point towards her campaign losing steam. Will it continue to slow
as the campaign rolls on and becomes even more political?

Nevertheless, for now her overall voter preference rating puts her ahead of 11 other probable candidates in
the Pulse Asia survey. Among them are Secretary Roxas, whose preference rating doubled to 20%; Vice Presi-
dent Binay, whose ratings dropped by 3 points to 19%; and Mayor Duterte, who increased by a point to 16%.
According to Pulse Asia, these three statistically share second place.

The other individuals included in this survey register voter preferences of at most 6%. Among them are Sen.
Bongbong Marcos (6%), Manila Mayor Joseph Erap Estrada (5%), Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago (3%), former
Sen. Panfilo Ping Lacson (2%), and Sen. Alan Cayetano (1%).

The names on top of the Pulse Asia survey are also consistent with the findings of the SWS Social Weather
Report on voting preferences for president. Sen. Poe again came out on top, with 26% of respondents saying
they preferred her, while 24% chose Vice President Binay, and 20%, Sec. Roxas.

They were followed by Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (11%), Sen. Bongbong Marcos (4%), Sen. Chiz Escudero
(4%), Manila Mayor Erap Estrada (3%), Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago (2%), and Sen. Manuel Manny Villar
(1%).

Former Sen. Ping Lacson, and current Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Loren Legarda each obtained 0.8%.
Two percent could not give an answer.

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 5

POLTIKA
Mar Roxas
Recently, Mar Roxas has had several reasons to be happy. He has officially been endorsed as the adminis-
trations standard bearer, he finally found a running mate in Leni Robredo, and he saw his preference rating
double in the latest Pulse Asia survey. His improvement was enough to bump him up from 4th in June to sta-
tistically tie two other candidates for the 2nd spot.

Roxas ratings went up throughout the country. Most notable, however, was his improved preference rating
in the Visayas. From just 12% preference in June, Roxas saw his Visayas figures almost triple to 34% by Sep-
tember. By location, Roxas remains to be least popular of the major candidates in the National Capital Region,
where preference for him is only 11 percent.

6 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

 Carrying the torch of the Aquino administrations Daang Matuwid, Roxas will look to ride the continued
popularity of Aquino through to victory in 2016. After all, Aquinos latest performance, trust and satisfaction
ratings show that many Filipinos still approve of him as he enters the last few months of his presidency.
Over the last two quarters, Aquino has been able to maintain his performance rating of 54% and improve
his satisfaction rating by 7 points to 64%, while only seeing a negligible drop of 1 point in his trust ratings
to 49%. The sustained, or even improved, ratings over the past two quarters show that Aquino has been
able to recover from his ratings dip during the height of the Mamasapano incident early this year, when he
was criticized for his lack of accountability for the death of 44 Special Action Force members.

Aquinos latest ratings may be a far cry from the 88% performance, 85% trust and 71% satisfaction from
the beginning of his term, but historically a presidents popularity tends to go down towards the end of
their terms. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, for instance, had a 26% performance, 25% trust and 23% satisfaction
rating in the last surveys before the end of her term. Comparing Aquino and Arroyos number show just
how popular Aquino remains to be.

Roxas strategy is, however, a double-edged sword. While he may benefit if Aquino maintains his popu-
larity, he also risks losing votes if Aquino becomes less popular as the elections draw nearer. Based on
our survey tracking, Aquino saw his performance and trust ratings drop in the March 2013 survey. From
78% performance and 80% trust in December 2012, Aquino saw his performance and trust ratings drop by
6 and 8 points, respectively. This was the biggest ratings drop hed seen since assuming office three years
earlier. Considering that the March 2013 survey was conducted at the height of the campaign for the 2013
mid-term elections, his ratings dip is more than likely explained by his increased politicking and active
endorsement of LP candidates.

What if the same happens in 2016?

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 7

POLTIKA
Jejomar Binay
Binays presidential preference rating this quarter represents his lowest since the survey began in March 2014.
In the latest survey, only 19% of respondents said they would vote for Binay, 3 percentage points lower than in
the June survey and less than half of his highest preference rating of 41% last year.

Continually hounded by corruption allegations, Binays drop in the presidential preference survey was also
accompanied by a drop in performance, trust and satisfaction ratings. In the June 2014 survey, when 41% of
voters preferred Binay for president, his performance, trust and satisfaction ratings were 81%, 79% and 78%
respectively. In the latest survey, Binays performance and trust ratings were at record lows of 43% and 39%,
respectively, while his latest satisfaction rating of 58% tied his record low from March earlier this year.

8 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

 VP Binay must address the publics plummeting perception of him, if he is to convince Filipinos that he
deserves their vote in the 2016 presidential elections.

Rodrigo Duterte
Although announcing that he isnt seeking the presidency and announcing that hes retiring from politics,
Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte continues to hint that he actually might just do the opposite. One would
understand, though, why Mayor Duterte might be having trouble making up his mind. Despite announcing
his retirement from politics last month, support for him does not seem to be fading. His Pulse Asia presi-
dential preference rating even rose by a single point to 16%, good enough for a statistical tie for 2nd with
Roxas and Binay. The SWS September voter preference survey, on the other hand, has him at 11%, but still
enough to be one of only four candidates with double-digit preference ratings.

By location, Mayor Duterte received the highest preference among respondents from Mindanao, with 29%
of Mindanaoan respondents saying they would vote for him. He also remains popular in the NCR and the
balance of Luzon, where 21% of respondents said they would vote for him.

We will have to wait for the deadline for filing of Certificate of Candidacy (CoC) on October 16 to see the
final list of 2016 presidential candidates; however, we can already take some names off the list of probable
candidates. Senators Francis Escudero, Bongbong Marcos and Alan Peter Cayetano have already declared
their intent to run for vice president; former president Mayor Erap Estrada looks to be preparing to run for
re-election in Manila; and Ping Lacson seems set on returning to the Senate. If we remove these individu-
als from the list of names included in the Pulse Asia and SWS presidential preference surveys, well see
thatoutside of the top four of Poe, Binay, Roxas and Dutertethe remaining names are unlikely to be
serious contenders, collectively pulling in no more than 3.8% of the votes in SWS survey and only 3.1% in
the Pulse Asia Survey.

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 9

POLTIKA

Pulse Asia also asked respondents who they would vote for in a four-way race between Binay, Duterte,
Poe and Roxas. They ran this survey in June and again in December. In the June survey, Poe received 38%
of the votes, followed by Binay with 30%, Duterte with 18%, Roxas with 13% and 1% undecided. In the
September survey, Poe still emerged on top with 32% of the votes. She was followed by Roxas and Binay
with 22% each, then by Duterte with 20%; 4% had no answer.

The September four-way race survey question further found that Poe was most preferred by voters in
NCR and the Balance of Luzon, pulling in 31% and 38% of votes there respectively. Roxas, on the other
hand, was the most preferred in Visayas with 38% of their votes, while Duterte was the most preferred
in Mindanao with 34%.

II. Vice Presidential Candidates

As a testament to her popularity, Grace Poe topped the vice presidential preference surveys of both
SWS and Pulse Asia. These surveys however were conducted before she formally declared her plans to
run for president in late September.

10 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

 According to the SWS survey, Poe garnered 27% of the votes for vice president in their September sur-
vey. Coming in at second was her running mate, Chiz Escudero with 20%. They were followed by Rodrigo
Duterte with 9%; Bongbong Marcos and Erap Estrada with 7%; Alan Cayetano and Loren Legarda with 5%;
Antonio Sonny Trillanes and Vilma Santos with 4%; Ping Lacson and Leni Robredo with 3%; Jinggoy
Estrada with 2%; and Lito Atienza Jr. with 0.9%

Pulse Asias survey, on the other hand, has Poe and Escudero on top with 24% and 23% respectively.
They are followed by Bongbong Marcos with 23%; Alan Peter Cayetano with 9%; President Aquino with
6%; Vilma Santos Recto and Panfilo Lacson with 5% each; Sonny Trillanes and Jinggoy Estrada with 4%
each; Leni Robredo with 3%; Francisco Kiko Pangilinan with 2%; and Kim Henares with 0.1%.

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 11

POLTIKA
With Poe now out of the VP picture, her running mate, Sen. Escudero looks to benefit most from her
exit. He already improved by 8 points between the June and September surveys, and he will likely im-
prove further now that Poe is out of the VP race and is his running mate. According to Pulse Asia, Escu-
dero was already the second choice of many Filipinos; in their September survey, 19% of respondents
had said that Escudero was their second choice for VP. He was followed by Poe with 14%, Cayetano with
12%, then by Marcos with 10%.

While it is clear that Escudero will benefit from being Poes running mate, depending on the final list
of candidates, it is possible that Poe may have drawn the short end of the stick in this tandem. Through-
out his career in national politics, Escuderos bailiwick has always been the Bicol region and he will be
expected to deliver the regions votes for Poe. However, with Rep. Leni Robredos decision to run for VP
with the Liberal Party, Escudero now has some competition for the regions loyalty.

Sen. Trillanes also traces his roots back to Bicol. Sen. Gringo Honasan, whom UNA has invited to be
Binays running mate, is even from the district of Sorsogon, which Escudero represented in the House of
Representatives for three consecutive terms.

Leni Robredo is currently the incumbent Representative of the 3rd District of Camarines Sur, the larg-
est province of six in the Bicol region. Her late husband, Jesse, served as the mayor of Naga City, the
regions religious, cultural, financial, commercial, industrial, and business center, for 18 years until he
joined Aquinos cabinet.

Although Robredo hails from the Bicol Region, it should be noted that the Liberal Partys VP candidate
came in 2nd to the last with only 3% in both the Pulse Asia and SWS Vice Presidential preference surveys.

12 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

However, Roxas remains positive that her ratings will improve now that she has declared that she will
run. Roxas was quoted comparing Robredos situation to his own a few months ago: Even I started at 4
(percent). Leni started at 3 (percent). We feel and we strongly believe that we are in the right place. We
trust that until the end of the race, the voters will choose who is worthy to lead this country.

It seems that Robredo, like Roxas, will be banking on the double-edged sword that is Aquinos popular-
ity and Daang Matuwid to deliver votes come election day.

With Senators Alan Cayetano and Bongbong Marcos announcing their plans to run for VP in 2016, its
proving to be a crowded vice presidential race.

III. Other Surveys

Aside from voters preferences for president and vice president, Pulse Asia also asked questions on
Urgent National Concerns and the Performance Ratings of the National Administration on Selected Issues.

According to the data gathered, Filipinos continue to be most concerned about increasing the pay of
workers, which garnered 47%, and controlling inflation which garnered 46%. These were followed by
fighting graft and corruption in government (39%), creating more jobs (37%), and reducing poverty of
many Filipinos (32%). Fighting criminality (25%) and increasing peace in the country (18%) are sixth and
seventh on the list, followed by enforcing the rule of law on all (16%), stopping the destruction and
abuse of our environment (13%), and controlling rapid population growth (11%).

The data also reflected that Filipinos are least concerned with defending the integrity of Philippine
territory against foreigners (7%), changing the Constitution (4%), and preparing to successfully face any
kind of terrorism (3%).

Moreover, the results for the Performance Ratings of the National Administration on selected national
issues showed that protecting the welfare of the OFWs and increasing peace acquired the highest ap-
proval ratings of 51% and 46%, respectively, followed by fighting criminality with 44%, and defending
Philippine territories and eradicating environmental degradation with 43% each. Enforcing the rule of
law and fighting corruption acquired 39% each, while creating more jobs received 37%. The concerns
rated lowest on approval on the list were increasing workers pay (33%), reducing poverty (28%), and
controlling inflation (24%).

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 13

POLTIKA

IV. Legislative Update

When President Benigno Simeon Aquino III delivered his last State of the Nation Address (SONA) during
the commencement of Congress Third Regular Session in July, he took the opportunity to identify his
priority legislation for Congress to pass before the end of his term.

At the top of his list was the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law, which upon adjournment of the
Session on October 9 was still under debate and interpellations in both houses of Congress. Mindanao
peace groups have appealed to the lawmakers to attend deliberations on the bill as lack of quorum was
delaying its passage into law.

Despite the delays, Chairman of the Houses BBL ad hoc committee Rep. Rufus Rodriguez, who recently
filed a substitute BBL bill with 48 contentious and allegedly unconstitutional provisions removed, is still
optimistic that it will be approved within the legislative window of November 3 to December 16. Senate
President Franklin Drilon shares his fellow legislators optimism, expecting the BBL to be enacted into
law before the end of 2015.

Aside from the BBL, both Houses of Congress also agreed to focus on seven other legislative measures
for the Third Regular Session. These priority measures were 1) creating a Department of Information and
Communications Technology (DICT), 2) amending the Build-Operate-Transfer Law to institutionalize the
Public-Private Partnership Center, 3) the proposed Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (CMTA), 4) the
proposed Tax Incentives Transparency and Management Act (TIMTA), 5) a bill raising the level of fines un-
der the Revised Penal Code to account for inflation, 6) reforms to the Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) system,
and 7) the proposed P3.002-trillion General Appropriations Budget for year 2016.

Before adjourning Session on October 9, the House of Representatives approved several bills on third
and final reading. Among them were 2016 National Budget, Customs Modernization and Tariff act, The
new Central Bank Act, and the creation of the Department of Information and communication Technology.

At the Senate, various measures have also been approved, such as a bill providing educational as-
sistance and other benefits to the dependents of all members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines,
Philippine National Police, Bureau of Fire, Bureau of Jail Management and Penology, National Bureau of
Investigation, Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency, Philippine Coast Guard, or Bureau of Corrections who

14 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

are killed or permanently incapacitated in the performance of their duty. The Senate also passed a bill
that would increase the penalty for smuggling of agricultural products.

Aside from the DICT and SK reform bills, which were both approved before the SONA, among the identi-
fied priorities only the two measure have made progress. The CMTA bill was sponsored by Sen. Sonny
Angara on the floor last September 28, and is scheduled to undergo the period of interpellations, while
the TIMTA bill is now up for bicameral conference approval.

Of all these, however, the one being given most attention by Congress is the proposed General Appro-
priations Act for next year. Since August, the Congress has been conducting a series of budget briefings
and deliberations on the proposed budget. Now that the House has approved the 2016 budget, it will be
transmitted to the Philippine Senate so that they can begin their own budget deliberations when Session
resumes in November, with the target of approving the budget before the end of the year

In addition to their legislative targets, the upcoming filing of candidacy and the approaching campaign
for the 2016 elections have both Houses pressed for time to pass significant measures within the remain-
ing fourteen weeks of lawmaking for the 16th Congress.

Congress will go on break on October 10 and will resume Session on November 2.

V. Governance Studies

Philippines Up Five Notches in the 2015 WEF Global Competitiveness Report;

Country Reaches Top-third of Global Rankings
The Global Competitiveness Report is an annual publication that provides a comprehensive picture of
the productivity and competitiveness of 140 countries through statistical and survey data based on over
114 indicators grouped into 12 pillars. The report series remains the most widely read comprehensive
assessment of national competitiveness worldwide.

This year, the Philippines rose in 10 of the 12 index pillars. The countrys strongest performing areas
were Labor Market Efficiency, Health and Primary Education, Market Size, Business Sophistication, Inno-
vation, and Macroeconomic Environment. Improvements were also recorded in Technological Readiness,
Financial Market Development, Infrastructure, and Higher Education and Training. Inversely, Institutions
and Goods Market Efficiency both dropped ten spots.

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 15

POLTIKA
Over the last five years, the Philippines greatest improvements have been in the indicators of Inno-
vation, Institutions, and Macroeconomic Environment. In addition, research and development, govern-
ment procurement of advanced tech products, government budget balance, government debt, and gross
national savings have also improved, which contributed to a more stable macroeconomic environment.

However, to guarantee a sustainable and inclusive growth, there are five problematic factors that must
be attended to, namely, inefficient government bureaucracy, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, com-
plexity of tax regulations, and tax rates. The lowest-ranked indicators include the number of procedures
to start a business, number of days to start a business, redundancy costs, and imports as a percentage
of GDP.

The Philippines remains fifth out of nine in the ASEAN, and is the third biggest gainer for this year after
Vietnam and Lao PDR. The country has been the most improved economy in terms of competitiveness
rankings in ASEAN and across the world over the period dating back to 2010.

Philippines No. 1 in Budget Transparency in ASEAN

Abad: Open Budget Index Results a Resounding Affirmation

According to the 2015 OBI, the Philippines scored 64 for budget transparency in Southeast Asia, sur-
passing its own target of 60. This ranked the Philippines as 2nd in Asia and 21st in the world for trans-
parent and open budget management.

A significant improvement in the Philippines score was shown in the data, which was 48 out of 100 in
2012. The average score among countries surveyed for the 2015 OBI is at 48, making budget transparency
levels in the Philippines above average on a global scale.

The OBS measures budget transparency on the basis of public availability and comprehensiveness of
the eight Essential Budget Documents: the Pre-Budget Statement, the Executives Budget Proposal, the
Enacted Budget, the Citizens Budget, the In-Year Reports, the Mid-Year Review, the Year-End Report,
and the Audit Report. According to the 2015 OBI report, all of these reports were published in full by the
Philippines.

The survey also measures the countrys budget oversight by the legislature and the supreme audit
institution (SAI), as well as the extent of public participation in the countrys budget process.

PH Improves ICT Ranking

As the Philippines continues to show improvements in terms of ICT, the country rose to the 76th place
out of 143 economies in the Global Information Technology Report 2015 by the World Economic Forum
(WEF). In 2013, the country ranked 86th out of 144 countries, improving a year after in 2014 as it ranked
78th out of the 148.

The Global Information Technology Report 2015 assesses the preparedness of an economy to fully le-
verage ICT in terms of: infrastructure, cost of access and the presence of the necessary skills to ensure
optimal use; uptake and use of ICT among governments, business and individuals; business and innova-
tion environment; the political and regulatory framework; and the economic and social impacts accruing
from ICT usage. The report used four sub-indicesEnvironment (political and regulatory, and business
and innovation); Readiness (in terms of infrastructure, affordability and skills); Usage (individual, busi-
ness and government), and Impact (economic and social). Within these sub-indices are 10 subcategories
or pillars and 53 individual indicators.

16 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

 Of the four sub-indices, the Philippines acquired the highest ranking in the Impact sub-index, placed
62nd, while ranking 74th in usage, 84th in environment and 85th in readiness.

Moreover, the country showed marked performance in terms of quality of management schools, where
it ranked 40th out of 143 economies, quality of educational system at 29th, adult literacy at 40th, use of
virtual social networks at 25th, capacity for innovation at 30th, and impact of ICTs on new organizational
models at 40th.

The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement: The Clock is Running

Seventeen months since the Philippines and the United States signed the Enhanced Defense Coop-
eration Agreement (EDCA), the deal remains in legal limbo. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on the
constitutionality of the agreement, which rests on the question of whether Malacaang Palace has cor-
rectly dubbed EDCA an executive agreement or if it is more properly considered a treaty, which would
require Senate concurrence. It is for Chief Justice Ma. Lourdes Sereno and her fellow Justices to rule on
the substance of the case, but what the Court rules may in fact be less important than when it does.

Limbo began in May 2014, when a group of lawyers and academics filed their case on EDCA before
the Supreme Court. Likely expecting the legal challenge, executive officials, such as Defense Secretary
Voltaire Gazmin, told the press that they anticipated a ruling around July 2015.1 When July passed, some
thought that the announcement might come in September, to avoiding coinciding with a possible deci-
sion on US Marine Joseph Scott Pembertons criminal case in Pampanga. By early October, neither case
had been resolved. It is now anyones guess when the ruling will be announced.

Without the Supreme Courts green light, implementation has ground to a halt

The Court has not issued a temporary restraining order preventing the executive from implementing
the deal with the United States. Nevertheless, neither the Department of National Defense (DND) nor
the United States Embassy has announced plans for moving forward. More concretely, a notable aspect
of EDCA provides for the United States to perform construction works upgrading Philippine-controlled
military facilities at Agreed Locations for the use of rotating US troops.2 Although eight locations have
reportedly been identified for this purpose3, roadworks have been thus far limited to one locationPala-
wans Oyster Bayand are being carried out by the Philippine Navy.4 Whether for financial reasonsUS-
based funds perhaps not available without the Courts green light5or out of respect for the ongoing
case, the absence of a TRO has not translated into an open environment for action.

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 17

POLTIKA
Instead, the United States and the Philippines have continued the capacity-building portion of their
cooperation. The two militaries have held joint command post and field exercises over the course of this
year, not least of which were the annual Balikatan exercises held in April of this year.6 At the time of writ-
ing, American and Filipino marines are taking part in the PHIBLEX 2016 exercises (Philippine Amphibious
Landing Exercise) in Luzon, which are being held from September 21 to October 9.7 However, because
these exercises are already covered under the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement, they can hardly be said
to fully represent EDCA in practice.

The rulings timing could further constrain the time left for the Philippines to move

With a final decision in hand, either the executive or legislative branch regains the ability to act. If the
Court should rule in Malacaangs favor, then the DND-Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and their
American counterparts can begin to make up for the year and a half already lost on the ten-year deal. If
the Court should rule that the Senate must concur, then the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations can
proceed through the process of review. It is in this second case that the timing of the Supreme Courts
decision is especially material: the longer it takes for the Court to rule, the more difficult it will be to see
a final vote until June next year.

The Senate will be in session for the final time this calendar year from November 3 to December 18. In
the same period, the senators will be in the thick of working on the General Appropriations Act for next
year; it has become a matter of pride for the body that it has not passed the budget late since President
Aquinos term began. If EDCA is passed to them, and as the window of time before November narrows,
the senators could decide to examine the agreement in late January, when the body resumes session.

However, preparations for the much-anticipated 2016 elections could throw a spanner in the works.
Senate rules say that treaty concurrence requires a two-thirds majority of all senators, not only those
present to vote as with regular bills. The campaign period will formally begin on February 9, and the
weeks leading up to that date will be no less busy for the candidates and their staff. At least half of the
body will be looking to secure a term in office, whether in the Senate again or in Malacaang Palace. Five
of the twenty four senators have especially grueling campaigns ahead, as they have announced their
intention to run for either president (Senator Grace Poe) or vice president (Senators Alan Peter Cayetano,
Francis Escudero, Gregorio Honasan, and Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr.)

As a result, a legislative discussion on EDCA risks languishing while the members hit the campaign
trail. Treaties like this have stalled before in the Senate. Although eventually approved, for example, the
Status of Forces Agreement between the Philippines and Australia was only ratified in 2012five years
after the then-respective defense secretaries signed the agreement in Canberra.

The Aquino administration had banked on EDCA as a short-run measure while the AFP modernizes

With all these variables at play, the situation must be frustrating for the Aquino administration, which
had banked on EDCA as a means to improve the Philippine security position in the short term. Although
rotating US forces through Philippine military bases isnt equivalent to an American guarantee to provide
assistance in the event of a scuffle in the South China Seathe United States is neutral to all claims,
including the Philippinesthe mere presence of US forces is thought to ensure that any foreign navy will
give pause before considering aggressive action.

By shoring up the external lifeline, Malacaang could buy time for the DND-AFP to develop their capa-
bilities. Over the last five years, the executive has beefed up its support for the defense establishment.
The Aquino administration has consistently proposed more funding for the DND through general appro-
priations than did the Arroyo or Estrada governments (see Figure 1). The average DND budget under the
Aquino administration amounts to approximately PHP 47 billion more than the average under Arroyos
tenureor around 450,000 in constant 2011 USD. The figures below do not yet include additional funding
outside of general appropriations (e.g. a portion of government proceeds from the Malampaya gas field

18 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

and from the Bases Conversion Development Authority), which also increased after the signing of the
Revised AFP Modernization Act of 2012, two years into Aquinos term.8

Figure 1: Philippine Military Expenditures from 1999-20149

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 19

POLTIKA
With a better funding situation, the AFPespecially the Philippine Navy and the Philippine Air Force
could stage a comeback after years of being de-prioritized. Even the most sincere modernization effort,
however, cannot produce results overnight. The AFPs Transformation Roadmap, for example, is de-
signed over a fifteen-year period. After the first five years, the AFP is only expected to be able to fully
monitor movements in the West Philippine Sea (maritime domain awareness). Interdiction capabilities
are only expected to come online in 2028 at the earliest.

Without EDCA, the Philippines will need to bank heavily on diplomatic and legal channels

The Philippine military has been the weakest leg of the countrys foreign policy, and this will continue
for some time. Despite its best efforts, the current administration does not seem likely to see either
the short- or long-term legs of its military strategy bear fruit while in office. The diplomatic and legal
approaches are already at the forefront of the national foreign policy effort, and while this is likely to
continue with or without EDCA, the pressure increases for these to produce results.

Now that the months are winding down to next years elections, Malacaang can at least rest easy
in the knowledge that fresh headaches from the region are likely to be the succeeding administrations
problem. For the rest of usincluding the Supreme Courtthe clock is ticking on.

ENDNOTES:

1 Frances Mangosing, Gazmin hopeful for favorable ruling on Edca, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 26 May 2015.

2 Article III, Section 6 of the agreement states the United States forces shall be responsible on the basis of proportionate use for the
construction, development, operation, and maintenance costs at Agreed Locations. The full text of the agreement can be found through the
following link: Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, Official Gazette, 29 April 2014.

3 Carmela Fonbuena, EDCA: Palawan air base added to locations offered to US, Rappler, 27 April 2015.

4 Redempto Anda, Navy begins developing Oyster Bay into mini Subic; mum on US pivot, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 6 October 2013.

5 Carmela Fonbuena, A year later, SC still sitting on EDCA, Rappler, 28 April 2015.

6 Alexis Romero, US-Philippines Balikatan 2015 ends, Philippine Star, 30 April 2015.

7 Prasanth Parameswaran, US, Philippines to hold amphibious landing exercise, The Diplomat, 19 September 2015.

8 More than simply increased will on the part of President Aquino, the administration was able to pursue modernization largely be-
cause of increased government revenues, a function of better collection efforts and a performing economy.

9 Data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institutes (SIPRI) Database on Military Expenditures. The database is
available through: http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database. Figures in blue are SIPRI estimates.

20 QUARTERLY OCTOBER 2015

OCTOBER 2015 QUARTERLY 21
POLTIKA
CRITICAL ISSUES OF PHILIPPINE POLITY

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