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Christian Kamtchueng
CTK.corp
London,UK
ESSEC
Paris,FRANCE
christian.kamtchueng@gmail.com
Abstract
It was upon a time, the Risk Neutral pricing world. Under this world every payoff ac-
tualized was a martingale. The industry became more and more complex but still managed
to provide prices for exotic, indeed via a Monte Carlo Method almost everything was pos-
sible under this measure. After Lehman Brtothers defaults, the practitioner realized that
the assumptions of this world were more important than the consequences of this magical
world. The world was easy and the price fair but the market was not complete (far to be
complete) ! It is not that the industry was not aware, it is just that it was easier and theo-
retically more beautiful to ignore some assumptions than make the uniqueness of the price
disappears. Indeed how can we be sure of our pricing methodology if prices are not unique.
Only some braves went to this road but the market is more powerful than any individual
The opinions of this article are those of the author and do not reflect in any way the views or business
of his employer.
theory or conviction (it doesnt matter if you are right alone). In this article, which is part
of an on going book, we established the base of the New Pricing Theory. The industry opts
for adjustment of the traditional risk neutral price; CVA,DVA,FVA,LVA are part of the
new pricing standard. The debate is not settled and many points of views are still open
to discussion. We will first define the new adjustments, respecting all literature points of
views then highlight our vision and the consequences in matter of pricing.
Contents
1 Introduction 4
2 CVA 4
3 DVA 4
4 LVA 5
4.1 FVA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
4.2 Market Liquidity Value Adjustment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
5 CSA 6
8 Conclusion 11
9 FVA Strategy 13
11 Treasury Arbitrage at t0 16
12 Treasury Arbitrage at T 19
1 Introduction
In a world not so far from now, the financial industry used to price under the risk neutral
measure. Under this wonderful and theoretical world, every contingent claim actualised was
a martingale. More than this everything seems feasible. Indeed this martingale property
gives the ability to price an infinite number of exotics. The market was confident on this
Wonderful world based on the so efficient Pricing Theory. Some of the market participants
forgot the major assumption of this world. The completeness of the market is not guaranteed,
in fact the market is far to be complete. When Lehman defaulted, the lack of liquidity and
the default fear pushed the industry to reconsider this common assumption. The market
was not liquid enough and adjustments were needed. First the CVA became standard then
academicians and practitioners started debating about DVA and FVA, at the end LVA was
added too. The discussion is still on going 5 years after the default of Lehman Brothers.
We will first define these adjustments then we will illustrate the industry point of views via
concrete pricing example. Finally we introduce to our vision of the New Pricing Theory.
Our main result is to established the new pricing rules of this new default world; the Fear
Pricing Theory. Compare our views to the past methodology and to others vision.
2 CVA
The CVA became a standard after Lehman defaults, the lack of confidence between market
participants pushed the industry to react. The risk neutral price has been adjusted by the
CVA which can be considered as a default option (the notion of premium is debating in [9]).
The classical definition of the CVA for a portfolio , CV A
(AB) , is the following:
"Z #
T Rt
rs ds
+
CV A
(AB) = EQ (1 R) e t0
t dQ ( < t)
t0
T r ds
h R i
= EQ (1 R) e t0 s + T
Remark: this definition does not take into account the hedging strategy adopted to hedge our
CVA, in fact some cost should be added regarding the trading constraint of the CVA trading
desk.
Note: the purists used to the classical theory could see in the second definition an obvious
pricing solution of the CVA. Indeed if the exposure is liquid enough, we could refer to the
martingale property of the contingent claim actualised.
3 DVA
The DVA definition is related to the CVA definition as follows:
DV A
(AB) = CV A
(BA)
5
In [7] and [8], Kamtchueng consider the structure P = P CV A(AB) with B seller the option
to A. He mentioned that the structure is not hedge able for B. Indeed P can be rewritten as
P = P DV A(BA) . He is not in favor of the theoretical hedging strategy described in [15],
which consists to buy back its own bound. Can you incorporate in your price the risk of
someone else? If this counterparty sees this risk, it should ask to be compensated for it but
we can ask the seller to consider a price adjusted by a risk which is not concerned but more
than this which is not hedge able.
The DVA by symmetry with the CVA is another option which covers against the default of
the counterparty. In our example B can sell it to A. It is not an adjustment of the price of A.
4 LVA
The Liquidity Valuation Adjustment has been introduced in order to take into account the
liquidity risk resulting of funding and market liquidity issues. During the subprime crisis,
the market started to decrease in volumes dramatically. Because of the default fears, market
participants were less risk appetite or more realistic concerning the default risk.
Lot of financial institutions were stuck with some so called toxic assets; credit portfolio
composed by credit derivative structures such as CDS, CDO, CDO2 and other basket default
swaps. This market very liquid and dynamic became suddenly dead. It was not only a credit
market freezing, but resulting of the huge exposure of the major market participants in this
lucrative business, each of this institution became to be very suspicious concerning the
position of the counterparty and its solvability.
This fear was expressed directly via the basis spread market; spread negligible pre-Lehman
default started becoming significant enough. The market started considering a credit risk
into this product which is systemic because no one is too big to default but also idiosyncratic
because each institution has its own default identity (fundamentally based but also market
based via the bond and the CDS market).
4.1 FVA
The FVA has been a huge problem after the subprime crisis, source of debate, its definition
itself is not well established. The debate has been focus on it consideration in the pricing.
In [18], Kamtchueng consider a risky F V A (which incorporates the idiosyncratic funding
spread)
rA = r + sfA
sfA = sL + sA
In order to avoid double counting, the part of the industry in favor of the DVA considers a
risk free DVA (no idiosyncratic risk) or systemic FVA see Morini and Co.
We have to distinguish the risky FVA to the default risky FVA. Indeed the default risky FVA
consider a default risk in the pseudo funding strategy. It is very problematic to consider
6
this type of FVA, indeed we do not consider the change of spread in case of default. As
mentioned in [19], the perception of default happens before the actual default.
f
B t sfB , sB
By considering the market proxy FVA described in [18], the strategy supposed our funding
exposure liquid enough to be able to buy it today via a collateralized trade with a premium
fund via a loan from our treasury (see graph in Annexe). The loan maturity is the maturity
of our trade, therefore we are not sensitive to a default as the position are fixed from today.
If your strategy is based on a roll over of loan conditioning of default, your FVA value will
be impacted by the change of funding spread in the future. The elasticity and inelasticity
assumption may play a big part on the evaluation of this FVA which would be more time
consuming.
The strategy described in [18] by Kamtchueng based on a long term loan is a market strategy
model independent (no sensitive to the elasticity, inelasticity assumption).
5 CSA
In order to reduce their exposure to a counterparty default, the market participants agree for
an exchange of collateral at each call period.
This procedure is supposed to reduced the credit risk, however we have to remark that it is
not necessary always the case (see numerical example for instance).
In addition collateral management is a cost which can not be afforded by every institution.
Quantitative issues are also observed, such as
7
We do not considered no hedge able benefit adjustment in our pricing. The DVA also
seen as funding benefit can not be considered in our pricing definition
The FVA is very problematic because not necessary hedge able, this term is subject to
the seller point of view. It could be a risk measure such as a VAR
Remark: Some authors are against the FVA adjustment but are in favor to the DVA adjust-
ment which is considered as a funding benefit.
Instead to list the different positions in the literature, we would like to consider the implica-
tion of our view on the entire market.
The disparity resulting of the added adjustment will force the institutions to negotiate and
reduce the costly speculation position. Indeed, the price before the crisis was buyer-seller
relative.
Post Lehmans default, the price is impacted by who is selling and who is buying.
Remark: the collateral trade is function of the collateral type and the CSA term.
P = P + CV AP + DV AP
P = P + CV AP + DV AP + F V AP
P = P + CV AP + F V AP
Before the 2007 crisis, the Pre-Lehman Pricing Theory so called classical theory was ques-
tionned and subject of discussions concerning the derivatives and the ill calibration problem
(pricing model, calibration method, hedging instrument, and hedging strategy).
Few academicians were aware about the liquidity adjustment done to the risk neutral price
at the trading level (see [19]).
After Lehman defaulted, the so called New Pricing Theory (fear pricing theory) considers
some adjustments:
CVA: although market participants can agree a consensus regarding the counterparty
credit spread term structure, the computation of the CVA number varies according to
different factors. Indeed it is related to the pricing valuation of the derivative in the
future and the simulation of risk factors constituent of a state of the world.
DVA: by considering the CVA definition of the DVA, we have a similar observation.
LVA:
FVA: is a function of the funding spread, controversial the FVA definition itself
is not clear; Kamtchueng in [18], illustrated the matter. He presented a static
replication of the FVA in a particular case but established that this term has no
reason to be considered under a specific measure because of it is no hedge ability.
It can be interpreted as a risk charge without any measure restriction (excepted
the ones from the risk management).
LVA market or Market Liquidity Adjustment (MLA): has been established before
the crisis. The stress market and cautious environment post Lehman default push
the quants to be more involved in the computation methodology of this risk. In [?],
Kamtchueng propose an uncertain valuation method and a classical one based on
the hedging entry cost.
CSA: the multiple frictions linked to a CSA, imply a huge quantitative considerations
and discussion. Indeed the real risk neutral rate could be one day considered as the RO-
NIA but without any consensus about the type of CSA, the quant are forced to consider
it at the one to one basis.
No CSA
Adjustment
CSA
Adjustment
No CSA
Adjustment
A B
type seller buyer seller buyer
CSA
Adjustment
A B
type seller buyer seller buyer
8 Conclusion
In order to move forward, the market reacts to the crisis by adjusting the risk neutral price.
We described this new context via a numerical example.
The changes are real and significant, whatever the market choice of standard.
Indeed the consensus seems reachable in the case of no CSA and given the use of the same
methodology. There is still place of negotiations regarding the institutions utilities.
The CVA, CVA-DVA seems convenient for the order of the adjustment. The first one do not
consider the funding risk, and the second consider a funding benefit without practical hedge.
How can we quantify a no hedge able risk?
The lack of equilibrium will force market participants to reduce any speculative position
(which will imply a expensive cost of entry and a breach of risk limits).
The CSA imply generally a reduction of the default risk. In our results we see that this
reduction depends also of the agreement terms. The exposition does not decrease necessarily,
therefore also the adjustments.
Bid-Ask-Buyer-Seller spread can be huge depending of the funding exposure and the risk
appetite of the firm.
The implications are vast; the new bid-ask-buyer-seller spread will force the market partici-
pant to be more cautious.
The market can come back to a mid price old fashion or goes to negotiation standard.
Our result shows a need of standard for the CSA in order to consider the risk linked to the
risk collateral (for instance a government bond).
12
References
[1] M.Avellaneda, A.Levy, A.Paras, Pricing and Hedging in Markets with Uncertain Volatil-
ity, (1995)
[5] D. Brigo, M. Morini, Dangers of Bilateral Counterparty Risk: The Fundamental Impact
of Closeout, (2010),
Working Paper
[6] V.Piterbarg, Funding beyon discounting: collateral agreements and derivatives pricing,
(2010),
Risk Magazine
[7] C.Kamtchueng, CVA Implied Vol and Netting Arbitrage, Introduction, (2010)
working paper
[11] T.R.Bielecki, S.Crepey, M.Jeanblanc and B.Zargari, Valuation and Hedging of CDS
Counterparty Exposure in Markov Copula Model, (2011)
Working Paper
[13] C.Fries, Discounted revisited. Valuation under funding, counterparty risk and collateral-
ization , (2011),
Working Paper
[14] C.Kamtchueng, Smile Perfect Match Extension, (2011)
working paper
[15] C.Burgard, M.Kjaer, CVA and FVA with funding aware close outs , (2012),
Working Paper
13
[17] A.Castagna, Yes, FVA is a Cost for Derivatives Desks - A Note on Is FVA a Cost for
Derivatives Desks? by Prof. Hull and Prof. White, (2012),
Working Paper
9 FVA Strategy
The FVA is subjected to discussion regarding its definition and its relevance as pricing ad-
justment. We have implemented the following FVA methodologies:
SF wd
F V A : Market Proxy defined in [18], see Figure for more details
F V ASF wd : Standard Method estimate via a Monte Carlo, it is expectation of the our
funding impact.
F V ASF wd V AR: VAR Method, it is a percentile of the previous Monte Carlo Method (99%
in our tests).
No CSA
Adjustment
type ASF wd
FV F V ASF wd F V ASF wd V AR
Table 5: FVA for Synthetic Fwd without CSA, strike = 120, Maturity 2Y
14
0.8
Default Prob
0.6
0.4
0.2
- A Default Prob
- B Default Prob
0.
0. 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
10.2 Adjustments
We have the following market prices at time 0, for a maturity T = 2Y and strike K = 120:
St0 = 150
t := zt + z rt
P ut (T, K) = 18.549
SF wd (T, K) = 36.975
Df (T ) = 0.941
15
Df A (T ) = 0.858
Df B (T ) = 0.803
Adjustment numerotation:
1. CVA
2. CVA-DVA
3. CVA-FVA
4. CVA-FVAVAR
5. CVA-DVA-FVA
6. CVA-DVA-FVAVAR
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
17.5
12.5
7.5
2.5
0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Figure 3: Pricing Bid Ask, FVA
11 Treasury Arbitrage at t0
17
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Figure 4: Pricing Bid Ask, FVAVAR
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.1
2.
0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Figure 6: Pricing Bid Ask with CSA, FVA
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16.
0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Figure 7: Pricing Bid Ask with CSA, FVAVAR
19
12 Treasury Arbitrage at T