periodo demanda desestacionalizada

1 2000
2 3000
3 3000
4 5000
5 4000
6 6000
7 7000 6708
8 6000 6792
9 10000 6833
10 12000 6833
11 14000 6875
12 8000 6958
13 3000 6833
14 4000 6750
15 3000 6917
16 5000 6958
17 5000 7000
18 7000 7167
19 3000 7208
20 8000 7208
21 12000 7375
22 11000 7417
23 16000 7292
24 10000 7208
25 2000 7333
26 5000 7583
27 6000 7792
28 3000 8083
29 4000 8333
30 6000 8333
31 7000 8375
32 10000 8458
33 15000 8333
34 15000 8208
35 18000 8208
36 8000 8292
37 5000 8542
38 4000 8917
39 4000 9125
40 2000 9208
41 5000 9333
42 7000 9583
43 12000 9750
44 14000 9667
45 16000 9542
46 16000 9500
47 20000 9583
48 12000 9625
49 5000 9417
50 2000 9083
51 3000 9000
52 2000 9250
53 7000 9500
54 6000 9417
55 8000
56 10000
57 18000
58 20000
59 22000
60 8000
regresion lineal demanda a des... = 5963
+72,05periodo seasonal factorfactores de 61 al 72
6035 0.33 0.43
6107 0.49 0.47
6179 0.49 0.49
6251 0.80 0.46
6323 0.63 0.62
6395 0.94 0.81
6467 1.08 0.90
6539 0.92 1.15
6611 1.51 1.69
6683 1.80 1.75
6755 2.07 2.12
6827 1.17 1.09
6899 0.43 0.43
6971 0.57 0.47
7043 0.43 0.49
7115 0.70 0.46
7187 0.70 0.62
7259 0.96 0.81
7331 0.41 0.90
7403 1.08 1.15
7475 1.61 1.69
7547 1.46 1.75
7619 2.10 2.12
7691 1.30 1.09
7763 0.26 0.43
7835 0.64 0.47
7907 0.76 0.49
7979 0.38 0.46
8051 0.50 0.62
8123 0.74 0.81
8195 0.85 0.90
8267 1.21 1.15
8339 1.80 1.69
8411 1.78 1.75
8483 2.12 2.12
8555 0.94 1.09
8627 0.58 0.43
8699 0.46 0.47
8771 0.46 0.49
8843 0.23 0.46
8915 0.56 0.62
8987 0.78 0.81
 9059 1.32 0.90
9131 1.53 1.15
9203 1.74 1.69
9275 1.73 1.75
9347 2.14 2.12
9419 1.27 1.09
9491 0.53 0.43
9563 0.21 0.47
9635 0.31 0.49
9707 0.21 0.46
9779 0.72 0.62
9851 0.61 0.81
9923 0.81 0.90
9995 1.00 1.15
10067 1.79 1.69
10139 1.97 1.75
10211 2.15 2.12
10283 0.78 1.09
demanda pronostico final pronostico de 1 al 60
61 4412 2571
62 4947 2897
63 5119 3013
64 4886 2889
65 6603 3923
66 8635 5153
67 9658 5790
68 12470 7509
69 18459 11164
70 19220 11674
71 23454 14305
72 12171 7454
2939
3307
3434
3288
4459
5850
6564
8501
12623
13183
16135
8397
3307
3717
3855
3688
4995
6546
7337
9493
14082
14693
17965
9341
3676
4127
4276
4087
5531
7242
 8111
10485
15541
16202
19795
10284
4044
4537
4697
4486
6067
7938
8884
11477
17000
17711
21624
11227
ERROR MAD RSFE TS error % abs
571 571.23 571 1.0 28.56172
-103 234.30 469 2.0 3.42106
13 160.37 481 3.0 0.41718
-2111 407.48 -1630 -4.0 42.22065
-77 341.47 -1707 -5.0 1.93607
-847 425.67 -2554 -6.0 14.11143
-1210 537.70 -3764 -7.0 17.28381
1509 281.88 -2255 -8.0 25.14734
1164 121.25 -1091 -9.0 11.63787
-326 141.72 -1417 -10.0 2.71600
305 101.08 -1112 -11.0 2.18101
-546 138.16 -1658 -12.0 6.82565
-61 132.20 -1719 -13.0 2.02184
-693 172.23 -2411 -14.0 17.31802
434 131.84 -1978 -15.0 14.45836
-1712 230.58 -3689 -16.0 34.23451
-541 248.87 -4231 -17.0 10.82898
-1150 298.95 -5381 -18.0 16.43492
3564 95.66 -1817 -19.0 118.79009
501 65.82 -1316 -20.0 6.26232
623 33.03 -694 -21.0 5.18997
2183 67.71 1490 22.0 19.84857
135 70.64 1625 23.0 0.84419
-1603 0.92 22 24.0 16.02708
1307 53.18 1329 25.0 65.37277
-1283 1.80 47 26.0 25.65620
-2145 77.72 -2098 -27.0 35.75023
688 50.38 -1411 -28.0 22.91938
995 14.35 -416 -29.0 24.86362
546 4.32 130 30.0 9.09662
337 15.06 467 31.0 4.81818
-507 1.25 -40 -32.0 5.06869
-918 29.04 -958 -33.0 6.12129
-307 37.22 -1266 -34.0 2.04930
-35 37.17 -1301 -35.0 0.19556
1341 1.11 40 36.0 16.75796
-1324 34.72 -1285 -37.0 26.48868
127 30.46 -1157 -38.0 3.17752
276 22.60 -881 -39.0 6.90554
2087 30.14 1206 40.0 104.34441
531 42.35 1736 41.0 10.61078
242 47.10 1978 42.0 3.45769
-3889 44.44 -1911 -43.0 32.40965
-3515 123.31 -5426 -44.0 25.10517
-459 130.77 -5885 -45.0 2.86990
202 123.54 -5683 -46.0 1.26168
-205 125.29 -5888 -47.0 1.02736
-1716 158.43 -7604 -48.0 14.30016
-956 174.71 -8561 -49.0 19.12648
2537 120.48 -6024 -50.0 126.85060
1697 84.83 -4326 -51.0 56.58190
2486 35.39 -1840 -52.0 124.30976
-933 52.33 -2774 -53.0 13.33525
1938 15.47 -835 -54.0 32.30466
884 0.89 49 55.0 11.05515
1477 27.26 1526 56.0 14.77422
-1000 9.23 526 57.0 5.55653
-2289 30.39 -1763 -58.0 11.44434
-376 36.24 -2138 -59.0 1.70793
3227 18.15 1089 60.0 40.34157
MAPE DEL 1 AO 13.04 MSE
MAPE DEL 2 AO 21.85 326308.76
MAPE DEL 3 AO 18.22 5266.65
MAPE DEL 4 AO 19.33 52.21
MAPE DEL 5 AO 38.12 1114114.72
1199.48
119479.45
209111.15
284575.02
150488.94
10622.41
8475.79
24847.71
283.00
34275.87
12542.66
183125.30
17245.12
73529.01
668419.84
12549.35
18470.27
216681.13
793.22
107027.98
68377.58
63292.36
170410.51
16884.57
34107.57
9929.81
3669.44
8028.62
25547.87
2779.16
35.40
49925.19
47408.81
425.12
1956.37
108877.56
6865.16
1394.82
351756.97
280756.37
4685.56
885.89
898.28
61348.36
18664.39
128728.59
56497.26
118868.58
16440.78
69572.75
14221.53
38978.14
17549.99
90326.18
2392.95
173593.80
semanas demanda promedio movil 4 semanas
1 1100
2 1180
3 1190
4 1340
5 950 1203
6 1170 1165
7 970 1163
8 1060 1108
9 1180 1038
10 1070 1095
11 980 1070
12 920 1073
13 1038

errores para promedio simple para 4

semanas
MAD
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
 suavizacion exponecial para
error para 4 semanas 4 semanas

2153 1228
2335 1165
2133 1182
2168 1112
2218 1023
2165 1098
2050 1079
1993 1088

TS MSE
 suavizacion
exponecial para 6
promedio movil 6 semanas error para 6 semanas semanas

1155 2125 1174

1133 2193 1141
1113 2293 1107
1112 2182 1116
1067 2047 1075
1072 1992 1087
1030 1133

MAPE