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We have provided below a short list of companies which we feel are currently available at attractive valuations, particularly when viewed with a
medium\long term perspective. The CMP and the Market Cap. are based on 28/04/2017.
* Trailing 12 Months; M = Medium Term (3-12 Months); L = Long Term (12 Months and above)
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NTPC Limited
Company Profile: Incorporated in the year 1975, NTPC Ltd a Maharatna PSU, is India's largest power generating major with a significant presence
in the entire value chain of power generation business and contributes to over 25% of the Nations generation. The companys core business is
generation and sale of bulk power. Other business segments include consultancy, project management and supervision, oil and gas exploration and
coal mining. It provides consultancy in the area of power plant construction and power generation to companies in India and abroad. The Company
generates power from coal, gas, hydro, liquid fuel and renewable based sources, with an installed capacity of 49998 MW (including 6966 MW through
JVs) comprising of 19 coal-based, 7 gas-based, 10 solar PV, 1 Hydro and 9 subsidiaries/joint venture power stations. NTPC acquired 50% equity of
SAIL Power Supply Corporation (SPSCL) and has 28.33% stake in Ratnagiri Gas & Power Pvt Ltd (RGPPL).
Strengths:
NTPC is a low cost producer as compared to its peers and almost the entire output of company's power stations has been contracted under long-
term PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements).
For the 12th 5 Year plan (2012-17) the company exceeded the target of generation capacity by adding 12,840 MW as against the target addition
of 11,920 MW, the highest ever capacity addition in any 5 year plan.
Concerns:
Key Financials (Rs. Cr.) FY 12 FY 13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Slowdown in Industrial activity, lack of power
Total Income 69047.3 76937.1 81828.3 82972.7 80224.0
procurement by utilities and seasonal fluctuations may
OPM (%) 26.62 29.80 27.52 23.73 25.52
lead to fall in power demand, which could impact the
PAT 9812.79 12590.78 11403.61 9986.34 10182.81
revenues.
Equity 8245.46 8245.46 8245.46 8245.46 8245.46
Reserves 66157.3 72995.5 79084.3 73848.5 80951.0 Rise in raw material prices, delay in execution of projects
Debt 59803.6 70418.8 81454.9 102252.0 112030.7 or clearances would lead to cost overrun and impact
EPS (Rs.) 11.90 15.27 13.83 12.11 12.35 its profitability.
Book Value (Rs.) 90.23 98.53 105.91 99.56 108.18 Outlook: NTPCs target is to have an installed power
Dividend (%) 40.00 57.50 57.50 25.00 33.50 generating capacity of 1,28,000 MW by the year 2032,
Promoter H (%) Last 5 Qtrs 74.96 69.96 69.96 69.74 69.74 consisting of a diversified fuel mix comprising 56% Coal,
16% Gas, 11% Nuclear and 17% Renewable Energy Sources(RES) including Hydro. At present the company has a capacity of over 22000 MW under
implementation at 23 locations across the country. The company looks to commission and commercialize about 4500 MW in FY18. NTPC has a
target of adding 10000 MW of solar power over the next 4 years. Growing demand for electricity in the country, Governments focus on improving
the Power sector combined with increased coal availability and faster commercialization of new capacities and focus on renewable energy will be key
for its growth in the coming years. NTPCs high visibility in earnings growth on the back of its aggressive capacity addition plans, regulated business
model, secured power purchase agreements, continued focus on scaling up generating capacity through a mix of conventional and non-conventional
fuel sources, coupled with attractive valuations makes it a good bet for long term investment.
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.
Company Profile: Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL), a Navaratna PSU was incorporated in 1989 and commenced its operations
in 1993 in the present form. Its core operations include construction, operation & maintenance of ISTS (Inter State Transmission Systems) and
operation of Regional Power Grids. It is one of the world's leading Power Transmission Utility with 1,38,857 circuit km of transmission lines and 219
substations with transformation capacity of more than 2,88,544 mva, total Inter-regional power transfer capacity is 75,050 MW. (as on Mar'17).
PGCIL is also present in telecommunications bandwidth business with its brand name POWERTEL. PGCIL has also diversified its business into
areas such as Consultancy, Distribution and Rural Electrification. The company provides Transmission related consultancy to more than 150
domestic clients and global footprint in 18 countries catering more than 25 clients.
Strengths:
PGCIL has a near-monopoly position in Inter State Transmission (90%) and also in transmission on a whole, and wheels about 45% of the total
power generated across the country.
Company has strong track record in project planning, execution and operation and maintenance.
Key Financials (Rs. Cr.) FY 12 FY 13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Concerns:
Total Income 11329.43 14136.56 16448.93 18437.75 21862.39
Since the transmission projects are linked to power
OPM (%) 82.20 83.49 83.24 84.93 87.06
generation projects, any delay in generation projects
PAT 3302.99 4312.61 4547.58 5046.25 6014.56
will result in delay in transmission projects which will
Equity 4629.73 4629.73 5231.59 5231.59 5231.59
impact the revenues.
Reserves 18953.48 21773.38 29466.35 33207.14 37736.09
Debt 54355.44 69233.40 84219.58 96243.41 109969.33 Outlook: PGCIL has achieved the planned capex for 12th
EPS (Rs.) 6.31 8.24 8.69 9.65 11.50 5Year Plan (FY12-17) of Rs 1.10 lakh Cr, and for 13th 5
Book Value (Rs.) 50.94 57.03 66.32 73.47 82.13 year plan ( FY 2017-2022) the total capex is estimated at
Dividend (%) 21.00 27.50 25.80 20.00 23.10 Rs 2.60 lakh Cr. It expects to receive around Rs. 1 lakh Cr
Promoter H (%) Last 5 Qtrs 57.90 57.90 57.90 57.90 57.90 worth of projects to implement for the coming year and
has set a capex target of Rs 25,000 Cr for FY18. Due to increasing demand for power coupled with capacities of renewal energy coming on stream
i.e. both solar and wind, the company is also setting up transmission corridors to supply power from solar parks to the national grid and 11
renewable energy management centers. Further, new transmission corridors and upgradation of railways are expected to improve the order book
going forward. Currently total projects under execution is approx. Rs 1.39 lakh Cr which provides a multi fold growth opportunity for the company.
On consultancy side, domestically, the company is working on about 105 projects worth around Rs 16700 Cr. and internationally, the company is
working on 17 projects. All the above factors along with a strong expanding asset base makes the company a good long term investment option.
Equity 12.54 12.54 14.54 14.54 14.54 crude prices may put pressure on its margins.
After the recent acquisitions, the companys debt has
Reserves 342.42 378.27 552.94 604.14 662.31
increased and this may increase its interest cost burden
Debt 51.86 46.20 41.94 528.64 408.38
impacting its profits.
EPS (Rs.) 6.20 7.73 9.16 10.58 11.63
Outlook: The flexible packaging industry has been
Book Value (Rs.) 56.61 62.33 78.06 85.10 93.10 witnessing healthy growth in recent years in line with the
Dividend (%) 130.00 140.00 140.00 140.00 150.00 strong growth in the domestic FMCG sector. To tap this
Promoter H (%) Last 5 Qtrs 68.77 68.77 68.77 68.77 68.77 growth, HPPL has been consolidating its position in the
market in recent years through acquisitions and expansions. The company acquired Positive Packaging Industries Ltd (PPIL), a leading player of flexible
packaging in 2014. This acquisition has strengthened HPPLs position in the Indian flexible packaging market making it among the top 2 players in the
industry. It will benefit from the synergies arising out of the acquisitions in the coming years which will be the key driver for its growth. The company in
March 2017 commenced commercial production at its two new units: Label manufacturing plant and Flexible manufacturing unit in Sikkim which is going
to give better access to its North East market. The company expects the returns from these new plants will begin from FY18. Strong growth opportunities
in the flexible packaging market and the companys leadership position in the market makes HPPL a good bet for long term investing.
Total Income 557.41 514.82 440.25 555.57 462.07 implementation of Government policies.
Competition from unorganized players, volatility in
OPM (%) 14.95 12.96 13.47 8.07 11.03
raw material prices and any delay in projects from
PAT 47.44 37.77 33.12 23.64 28.34
user industries are expected to impact the profitability.
Equity 15.39 15.39 15.39 15.39 15.39
Outlook: Esab has undertaken rationalization at its
Reserves 196.20 220.56 251.88 273.66 300.15
manufacturing units and the move is expected to improve
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 productivity and capacity utilization in consumables. The
EPS (Rs.) 30.83 24.54 21.52 15.36 18.41 company is also working on other initiatives in supply
Book Value (Rs.) 137.49 153.31 173.66 187.82 205.03 chain, manufacturing and other areas for cost reduction
Dividend (%) 150.00 75.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 to help it to sustain and grow margins in a difficult
Promoter H (%) last 5 Qtrs 73.72 73.72 73.72 73.72 73.72 environment. Demand for welding consumables is directly
proportional to steel production in the country. The key driver of the welding consumables market is growth of its end-use industries, especially the
construction industry. Esab is now focusing on growing services segment to cushion the impact of any sustainable difficulties in the manufacturing
segment. Government initiatives & recent developments like smart cities, rail network, highway projects, freight corridors, new ports etc to boost the
demand environment and increased investments in key sectors like construction, infrastructure, steel, power, cement and energy provides an
optimistic outlook for future growth. Esabs new product launches and a potentially leaner organization structure would augur well for sales and
profitability margins. The company has been working on opportunities to exploit its potential as a service provider in R&D and shared services to
Esab entities around the world. Consolidation of production units, continued focus on services segment along with incremental revenue from new
product launches coupled with growing demand is expected to result in profitability expansion going forward.
Mahindra & Mahindra Limited
Company Profile: Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (M&M), incorporated in 1945 is a part of the Mahindra Group. M&M is a flagship company for the
Group, consists of 154 subsidiaries, 8 JVs & 16 Associates. M&M is Indias leading Utility Vehicle (UV) manufacturer & Mahindra is the worlds largest
selling tractor brand by volume and Indias leading Tractor manufacturer for over 30 yrs. M&M has a portfolio of Electric Vehicles to SUVs Pick-Ups to
Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV) & Tractors to various Farm Equipments. Its manufacturing facilities are located at Kandivali, Nashik, Igatpuri,
Nagpur, Zaheerabad, Jaipur, Rudrapur, Haridwar, Chakan & Mohali. M&M has access to markets in North America, Middle East & Africa, APAC, South
America & Europe. M&Ms consolidated revenues mainly include Automotive, Farm Equipment, Financial Services, along with IT Services, Steel Trading,
Infrastructure, Hospitality, SystemTech and Others. M&M has 4 spare parts warehouses located at Mumbai, Kanhe, Hyderabad and Jaipur.
Strengths:
M&M has leading market share in Tractors (43.4%), UV (37.9%), Small CV (51%),Pick-Ups (69.1%) , IT (Top 5 in India), Financial Services
(Largest NBFC in Rural & Semi-urban areas) & Vacation Ownership (Club Mahindra Holidays).
Global strategic partnerships with Sampo Rosenlew (Global combine harvester business), Pininfarina (Design House), SsangYong (Auto Maker)
and MAM (Japanese Tractor Manufacturer) provides M&M a competitive edge. Concerns:
Key Financials (Rs. Cr.) FY 12 FY 13 FY14 FY15 FY16 External factors like economic growth, Govt. policies &
monsoon coupled with stiff competition from other
Total Income 60975.45 69664.28 75062.84 71973.80 79086.00 players, availability of large number of variants & the
OPM (%) 12.77 14.29 14.58 13.33 12.89 bargaining power of its end consumer could affect the
PAT 3126.66 4099.20 4666.93 3137.47 3211.26 company's performance.
Equity 294.52 295.16 295.16 295.70 296.32 Outlook: M&M is seeing revival in Farm Equipment &
Reserves 16409.29 19665.54 23011.70 25560.68 28323.32 Auto segment aided by good monsoon which has boosted
Debt 23120.54 28711.05 35166.79 37911.46 43969.73 rural demand and given a much needed push to the
EPS (Rs.) 52.76 69.17 78.75 52.94 54.19 industrial activity in India. M&M has lined up new launches
Book Value (Rs.) 283.58 338.13 394.82 437.21 482.92 in the Farm Equip. & Auto Segment in the next 18-24
Dividend (%) 250.00 260.00 280.00 240.00 240.00 months. It also plans to invest Rs. 1500 Cr in Nashik &
Promoter H (%) Last 5 Qtrs 26.93 26.80 26.80 26.77 26.69 Igatpuri under the Ultra Mega Project by Maharashtra
Govt. which will increase the capacity of Nashik Plant from 160k units to 210k units. M&M is a pioneer in Electric Vehicles in India and is evaluating
plans to launch a high end electric car leveraging the Pininfarina brand. The recent Supreme Court decision on BS IV vehicles could have a one time
material impact on the financials in the short term, however the company is looking at various options to liquidate the current BS III inventory and
ramping up the BS IV production ensuring stability in its' operations. M&M is also focusing on Defence segment through inorganic growth to tap
Indian government's huge defense spends. A diversified business model, strong presence in the rural & urban markets, continued focus on investing
and growing its portfolio by introducing and scaling up new products, healthy balance sheet and a strong brand makes M&M a good buy for long
term investment.
Texmaco specializes in overhead electrification solutions for the railways and has strong credentials in this specialized field, which is reflected in
Total Income 793.04 860.38 469.28 462.27 1046.06 earnings. Texrail had received orders for only 1,300
wagons in the current year compared with 2,300 last
OPM (%) 19.38 17.60 8.20 8.81 7.19
year.
PAT 93.06 94.27 16.97 13.74 13.23
Reversal in raw material costs especially commodity
Equity 18.20 18.20 18.20 21.01 21.03 price and higher base in H2 FY16, could impact
Reserves 490.42 562.71 573.87 872.41 888.35 company earnings in short term.
Debt 69.14 99.04 98.50 103.82 400.33 Outlook: Texmaco Rail, a key player in the sector is expected
EPS (Rs.) 4.43 4.48 0.81 0.65 0.63 to benefit from the government's plans to spend around Rs.
Book Value(Rs.) 24.19 27.62 28.15 42.48 43.24 8.5 lakh crore in the next 5 years on improving and
Dividend (%) 100.00 100.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 modernizing railways. After strategic acquisition of Kalindee
Promoter H(%) Last 5 Qtrs 54.81 54.75 54.74 54.74 54.47 Rail, Texmaco has recently acquired Bright Power Projects,
to foray into the high growth overhead electrification solutions for the railways sector, which will enable it to further strengthen its position towards
becoming a one stop integrated total rail solutions provider. Further, company is expected to benefit from the recently announced new policy initiatives in
the railway budget including investment through PPP model, FDI in railways, suburban corridor projects, dedicated freight corridor and Wagon leasing
scheme etc. Companys focus on Steel Foundry, improving performance in Hydro mechanical Equipment division, fast tracking EMU coach manufacturing
unit and good growth in export business would shield it against any weakness in Wagons orders from Indian Railways. On a whole, with strong balance
sheet, better operating efficiency and turnaround in operations, Texmaco is expected to be a decent investment option for long term investors.
DISCLAIMER
This document was prepared by Zen Securities Ltd (ZSL), on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other
sources believed to be reliable. The material contained herein is for information only and under no circumstances should be deemed as an offer to
sell or a solicitation to buy any security. ZSL or its employees, may, from time to time have positions in the stocks mentioned in this document. While
all care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and the opinions are reasonable, ZSL shall not be liable for any loss or damage
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