Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Data Firms React To Iranian Presidential Showdown

    Uploaded by

    Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
    46 views3 pages
    The Iranian presidential election has leapt into the headlines as two candidates feverishly make their final arguments to voters. President Hassan Rouhani and conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi have burst into the lead after two other hopefuls dropped out of the race this week. With opinion polling scattered and inconsistent, a clear picture of the electorate is difficult to measure. Two data science startups have offered their election analysis before Friday’s voting. This blog is part of the Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative’s continuing series on data-driven electoral forecasting. Previous pieces looked at data forecasts versus polling predictions in the runup to the French presidential voting in late April and early May, and the recent South Korean presidential election.

    Original Title

    Data Firms React to Iranian Presidential Showdown

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    The Iranian presidential election has leapt into the headlines as two candidates feverishly make their final arguments to voters. President Hassan Rouhani and conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi have burst into the lead after two other hopefuls dropped out of the race this week. With opinion polling scattered and inconsistent, a clear picture of the electorate is difficult to measure. Two data science startups have offered their election analysis before Friday’s voting. This blog is part of the Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative’s continuing series on data-driven electoral forecasting. Previous pieces looked at data forecasts versus polling predictions in the runup to the French presidential voting in late April and early May, and the recent South Korean presidential election.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    46 views3 pages

    Data Firms React To Iranian Presidential Showdown

    Uploaded by

    Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
    The Iranian presidential election has leapt into the headlines as two candidates feverishly make their final arguments to voters. President Hassan Rouhani and conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi have burst into the lead after two other hopefuls dropped out of the race this week. With opinion polling scattered and inconsistent, a clear picture of the electorate is difficult to measure. Two data science startups have offered their election analysis before Friday’s voting. This blog is part of the Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative’s continuing series on data-driven electoral forecasting. Previous pieces looked at data forecasts versus polling predictions in the runup to the French presidential voting in late April and early May, and the recent South Korean presidential election.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    5/26/2017 DataFirmsReacttoIranianPresidentialShowdown

    MAY17,2017

    DataFirmsReacttoIranianPresidentialShowdown
    BYBRENTM.EASTWOOD

    Votersinthe2016Iraniangeneralelections

    Thisblogpostispartofaseriesanalyzingthenewestformsofdataforecasting.

    TheIranianpresidentialelectionhasleaptintotheheadlinesastwocandidatesfeverishlymaketheirfinalargumentsto
    voters.PresidentHassanRouhaniandconservativeclericEbrahimRaisihaveburstintotheleadaftertwootherhopefuls
    droppedoutoftheracethisweek.Withopinionpollingscatteredandinconsistent,aclearpictureoftheelectorateisdifficult
    tomeasure.TwodatasciencestartupshaveofferedtheirelectionanalysisbeforeFridaysvoting.Thisblogispartofthe
    Foresight,Strategy,andRisksInitiativescontinuingseriesondatadrivenelectoralforecasting.Previouspieceslookedat
    dataforecastsversuspollingpredictionsintherunuptotheFrenchpresidentialvotinginlateAprilandearlyMay,andthe
    recentSouthKoreanpresidentialelection.

    Predata,aNewYorkgeopoliticalriskfirm,conductselectionpredictionsusingdigitalmomentumdataitminesfrom
    candidateWikipediasearches,Twitteruse,andYouTubecomments.FacebookandTwitterarebannedbytheIranian
    government,butmanypeoplestilltweetaftercreatingaliasestocircumventgovernmentcontrols.Candidateshaveused
    Instagraminsteadoftelevisiontopostlivecampaignvideos.VotershaveflockedtoTelegram,amessagingappthathasa
    Farsilanguageoptionallowinghugegroupstodiscusstheelection.

    InaresearchnoteonMay14,PredatarankedreformistPresidentHassanRouhaniandconservativeEbrahimRaisiinfifth
    andsixthplacebasedondigitalconversations.RaisiisacronyofSupremeLeaderAyatollahAliKhamenei.
    http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/futuresource/datafirmsreacttoiranianpresidentialshowdown 1/4
    5/26/2017 DataFirmsReacttoIranianPresidentialShowdown

    PredatasaidthatRaisihaddroppedindigitalmomentumandthatRouhanisfinaldebateperformancefocusedonattacking
    theconservativesontheircivilrightsrecord.Raisiishavingdifficultygeneratingattentiontohiscandidacy,accordingto
    Predata.ButthedatafirmalsoranksRouhanilowindigitalconversationstrength.

    WhenPredatabrokedowntheirdigitalmomentummetricbasedonConservativeorReformistidentification,itshowedthat
    therightleaningsentimentscoredhigherthantheleftleaningsentiment.ThisPredatachartonMay14illustratesthe
    ideologicaldivideinIran.

    Thentheracechanged.OnMay15,themayorofTehran,MohammadBagherGhalibaf,droppedoutandendorsedRaisi.On
    May16,FirstVicePresidentEshaqJahangiri,haltedhiscampaignandbackedRouhani.AsofMay17,Predatahadno
    furtherpublicelectionguidancethatwouldexplainwhetheritsmetricsfavoredRouhaniorRaisi.

    GovBrain,operatingoutofWashington,DC,predictsglobaleventsusingartificialintelligence,machinelearning,andnatural
    languageprocessing.ItfeaturesaTrendMeterinsidethispatentpendingsystemthatanalyzesdigitaltrendsfromnearly
    1,000government,regulatory,andlegislativesourcesalongwithpolitical,financial,andtechnologynewssitesfromaround
    theworld.

    GovBrainhasRouhanifirmlyincontrol,accordingtoitsTrendMeter.RouhanitrendedstronglyafterthefinaldebateonMay
    12.HealsogrewsteadilydespiteGhalibafsexitandendorsementofRaisionMay15.

    ConservativeRaisibenefittedfromGhalibafsendorsement.WhileRaisistrendstrengthlookslowinthechartbelow,hehas
    latelymadeanotablemoveupwardheadingintoFridaysfirstroundofvoting.Raisididnotdowellinthelastdebate,even
    thoughrightleaningvotershaveunitedaroundhim.Butheflatlinedinthedaysbeforetheendorsement,allowingRouhanito
    takealargeleadontheTrendMeter.

    http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/futuresource/datafirmsreacttoiranianpresidentialshowdown 2/4
    5/26/2017 DataFirmsReacttoIranianPresidentialShowdown

    Raisistrendstrengthgrew87percentinthetwentyfourhoursafterGhalibafsexit.WhenJahangiriquittoendorseRouhani
    onMay16,theIranianpresidentgrewonly52percentduringthattime.Meanwhile,Raisigrewanother23percentagainst9
    percentforRouhanithenextday.Thatspellstroubleforthereformistshopesforasecondterm.IfRaisicontinueshistrend
    growth,heshouldbeabletocutintoRouhanisleadoverthelastfourtyeighthours.

    Rouhaniisthefavoritetowin,butwedontthinkhewilleclipsethe50percentthresholdneededtoavoidarunoff,"GovBrain
    said.Raisiispoisedtowinthelatebreakingenthusiasmbattleforundecideds.Ifhehasastrongshowinginthisfirstround,
    hecanparlaythatmomentumtothesecondroundonMay26.Withthisextracampaigntime,hewillthenhavethe
    opportunitytoovertakeRouhani.LookforRaisitocontinuebangingthedrumonthesluggishIranianeconomywithits11
    percentunemploymentthathasleftmanyconservativelowerincomevoterslookingtotheclericforchange.Rouhaniwill
    havetorallyyoungerandurbanvoterstosweephimbackintooffice.

    Pollinghasbeenlimited.USbasedInternationalPerspectivesforPublicOpinionsaidWednesdaythatRouhaniwasleading
    Raisi30percentto13percent.TheIranianStudentsPollingAgencyhadRouhanileading47percentto25percent,butthis
    pollwasheldbeforeGhalibafdroppedout.Twoothercandidates,MostafaMirSalimandMostafaHashemitaba,arebarely
    registeringinthepolls.

    Otherblogsinthisseries:
    IMFandWorldBankinNeedofMoreModernForecastingMethods
    ThePredictionGame:DataScienceFirmsvs.PollstersonSundaysFrenchPresidentialElection
    DataFirmsWeighInOnSouthKoreanPresidentialRaceDuringPollingBlackout

    BrentM.Eastwood,PhDistheFounderandCEOofGovBrainIncthatpredictsworldeventsusingmachinelearning,
    artificialintelligence,naturallanguageprocessing,anddatascience.Heisaformermilitaryofficerandawardwinning
    economicforecaster.Brenthasfoundedandledcompaniesinsectorssuchasbiometricsandimmersivevideo.Heisalsoa

    http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/futuresource/datafirmsreacttoiranianpresidentialshowdown 3/4

    You might also like