Apndice

1.1Estimacin de Tasa de Crecimiento

Taza de Crecimiento
Mtodo de la Razn

C
X= x 100=1 00
c

Dnde:
X = Tasa de crecimiento
C = Aumento promedio del consumo

C = Consumo promedio

CONSU
MO
AO
INTERN
O
13261.46
2005
4
13349.96
2006
2
15685.92
2007
3
17592.65
2008
8
19525.25
2009
9
23586.45
2010
8
30905.75 C=23944.4567
2011
27
32527.86
2012
01 Ao Consumo
35482.68 1 88.498
2013
2 2 2335.961
37526.54
2014 3 1906.735
8
4 1932.601
5 4061.199
6 7319.2947
7 1622.1074
8 2954.8219
9 2043.866
C=2696.1204
 2696.1204
X= 10 0
23944.4567

X =11.259 894

1.2. Estimacin de la Demanda Futura

X =Do( 1+ x )n

Demand
AO a
Interna
38545.87
2015
33
2016 42886.1
2017 47715.03
2018 53087.69
2019 59065.31
2020 65716

Demanda Futura para 2015:

Do =13261.464
X= 0.11259894
n= 10
X =38545.87326

Demanda Futura para 2016:

Do =13261.464
X= 0.11259894
n= 11

X= 42886.1
 Demanda Futura para 2017:

Do =13261.464
X= 0.11259894
n= 12

x= 47715.03

Demanda Futura para 2018:

Do =13261.464
X= 0.11259894
n= 13

x=53087.69

Demanda Futura para 2019:

Do =13261.464
X= 0.11259894
n= 14

X=59065.31

Demanda Futura para 2020:

Do =13261.464
X= 0.11259894
n= 15

x= 65716