He

measured all live trees in plots twice, mostly in mid-1980

18 and the late 1990s, and calculated the total carbon in the
16 biomass of the vegetation.
14
12 0.61 We see that plots, on average, increased biomass over the
th
late 20 century.
No. plots

10
8 See normal distribution, shirted to the right. These forests
6
4
are a net carbon sink.
2 Two interpretations, firstly, that this is a natural phenomena
0 most plots most of the time increase in biomass with
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Biom ass change / Mg C ha-1 yr -1
rare disturbances killing trees and therefore reducing
biomass, for the cycle to start again. The interpretation here
8 is that there may be no sink, we just havent measured
enough plots with declines in biomass, because they are
7
Brazilian oxisols -1
6 0.35 0.35 Mg C ha
5
relatively rare.
No. plots

4
3
The second interpretation is that these forests are a carbon
2
1
0
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
sink as they are growing faster, caused by an increases in
plant resource availability.
8
These two interpretations can be separated: if these results
7
-1 are caused by disturbance, then there should be no major
6 W. Amazon 0.57 0.32 Mg C ha
5 change in growth over time, but there should be increasing
No. plots

4
3
growth if extra resource availability is the cause.
2

1
0
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3


8
7
6

5 Floodplains -1

No. plots

4
1.22 0.20 Mg C ha
3
2
1
What appears to be occurring, is that these forests are
0
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
experiencing improving conditions for growth, which is
increasing net primary productivity, in turn is causing the net
Biomass change / Mg C
-1 -1 carbon sink.
The most likely cause is increasing atmospheric CO2
concentrations that are fertilising these remote tropical
The most parsimonious explanation is that an increase in plant
resource availability (CO2?) is increasing net primary productivity
forests causing the carbon sink.
Or put another way, human actions are altering even
apparently untouched remote tropical forests across South
America.
Net C sink





Accelerated Mortality increasing, but lagging
growth behind the accelerated growth
We have begun looking at whether the S. American results
Change in biomass carbon across forest plots across three continents over
are occurring elsewhere. These are as-yet unpublished
the late 20th century. results.
We see very similar increases plots from Africa and North
1
Queensland in Australia, suggesting that if SE Asia which
Mg C ha-1 a-1

0.5 we have not fully analysed is acting similarly to the rest of

the tropics, then there is a total tropical sink in forest
0 vegetation of 1 Pg a-1, resulting from only a fraction of a
percent change in biomass storage.
Am
a

ia
ric

l
ra

This is a significant carbon sink, but the tropics may be a

Af

S.

st
Au

larger sink than this, as 1 Pg C a-1 does not include changes

0.5 % a-1 increase in biomass carbon.
in either savanna or soil carbon, both of which might
If SE Asia acting similarly, total sink of 1 Pg C a-1.
plausibly be a carbon sink.